Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20160616 : comparemela

BLOOMBERG On The Move June 16, 2016

Where are we in the Brexit Debate just a week to go until the u. K. Votes. We are less than half an hour until the european open. Futuresls disabling. We saw futures signaling. We saw asian stocks tumble. Check out what is happening with features. Asia tumbled 3 . Thats happening with futures. Asia tumbled happening with futures. Asia tumbled 3 . All eyes on the Eu Referendum. The cac 40 showing it to be down 1. 5 . It is going to be a down day. Here are your Asset Classes. Matt big, big moves. Ook at the nikkei down 3 15,434 closing, worst level in a month. You see the yen right now down to 104 104. 20 real strength in the yen last week you can find more than seven yen for a dollar. The japanese twentyyear getting close to a negative yield. It is going out and negativity. Brent crude falling another 1 . Down 48 down 48. 50. Real pressure on oil as more supply comes online. Lets get the first word news with haslinda amin. Haslinda matt, Deutsche Banks chairman has become the latest leader to one about a potential danger of a brexit. He says it would be an Economic Disaster for the u. K. And a political disaster for the eu. Just a week to go until the e has michael gov criticized yesterday budget that the remain camp says would be necessary to shore up public finances. George osborne fighting a growing rebellion as the party lines up to reject spending cuts. The car market has fallen the most since december. It comes as Matthias Mueller prepares to deliver his new Corporate Strategy later this morning. Car owners said the u. S. Government has been given more time to file several proposals in the vw emissions scandal. A federal judge the late the filing deadline until june 28 majors ofhnical negotiations. Which crashed last month with 66 people on board. Egypts Aviation Ministry says they have obtained images of the wreckage but did not specify the location. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stores on the bloomberg at top. Caroline haslinda, thank you very much. Talking of Central Banks, hurry up and wait. That is the message from the fed which kept steady in last nights decision. Yellen says the brexit vote influence the vote not to take influenced the decision not to take any action. The bojs News Conference is underway now. Does have a look at some of the headlines coming out of governor kurodas japan. They have continued to moderate a recovery trend. He expects japans economy to gradually expand. He expects the price will gradually rise. He expects inflation to come back toward 2 . Oil seems to be jammed tomorrow. They are jammed today with the pan. With japan. Well keep tuned in to that live press conference. Lets get some analysis on all. F this centralbank news bob, the bank of Japan Holding steady. Economists seem to be split on what would happen. 30 thought that we would see a move today. Is it about the global risks . Bob i dont think so. I think brexit is an issue but one centralbank uses brexit as a reason not to hike and another uses use it as a reason not to cut. It doesnt add up. Is a kind of japan lastng view that in its inning. The yen reaction is maybe looking forward to the end of abenomics. With thehe old trend yen much stronger as the world is kind of the worlds kind of weird safe haven asset. Matt do you expect the bank of japan to hold out to pull out a big zynga dess big bazooka and fight the strength of the yen . Are they just giving up . Think theyk they have done the big bazookas. With every centralbank and every easing, the halflife is shorter and shorter. The eurozone and the fed. The bigger issue is are we at the 20 end of what center banks can get away with. We are looking at this will policy but policy at fiscal policy but policy looks along on the way. And excitement go Central Banks outside of the Federal Reserve in america can no longer expect effectiveness from their policy . Since a bank policy alone cannot move the needle . Bob the data. Ells you, look at bond yields if you go back five or six years, nothing really worked. That part of it has failed. The bit you are kind of pointing canrd is essential is central bankers keep asset bubbles longer . Mr. Draghi keep saying a few things. Mr. Kuroda has been trying to loosen further. It is not going to do anything around the globe around the growth inflation debate. Bookhing happens to the just to the growth story this lower were in for longer world. I look at this years performances of assets, bonds have done fantastically well. Bonds assets have flattened. Caroline that theme is being emulated. Want to bring if you were headlines coming from governor kuroda. They will add stimulus is needed. Still see unstable moves in the markets. As governor yellen did, giving speak to the fact that they are looking outside of their own economies. The bond patches have affected the market so far. The 30 oh yields, happening over in russia. The Economic Forum getting underway today. Russias biggest investment event in this year being overshadowed by recession, International Sanctions and the plans of oil prices. With a week until the referendum, the possibility of that u. K. Exit from the eu is possible. Ryan good morning caroline. Exactly is it a good place to start the conversation. I am joined by alexander, the owner of the Evening Standard. A Prominent Russian businessman. We have to talk brexit. There is this perception out there that the russians, the kremlin could not be more delighted if the u. K. Exits because it means a weaker euro. Not true . Alexander i think the brits are much wiser than thinking about making criminal he making kremlin happy. There are much more serious considerations. I dont think it is so important on the kremlin agenda. There might be someone there who might be personally thinking that something changes under brexit ryan lets forget about persons. Alexander influenced by individual politics. Russia plays a big role. Whether brussels will be playing the role or some london politician. Lets assume that brexit happens , what does change about what britain thinks about russia . Nothing. Yesterday when i think, without interfering. I think from the point of view of being wise economically, i think the decision to leave would be pretty difficult. It is going to cause detriment to the british economy. I understand some of the considerations of my british friends which is raining in brussels. And my it is 5050 personal thinking is the brits are much more conservative in a good sense of the word did once they go to the polls, they are going to think twice. Ryan do you think that a lot of russians will say if the u. K. Were to exit the European Union, this is a less attractive place for me to go on vacation, by a house, spend my money, part my money. Russianslly for the with dirty money, we spend them on buying property in london. It will be a less attractive place. Russians like myself, it cannot be the same and we are much more affected by the Exchange Rate because have to play twice we have to pay twice. Ryan you wake up on the morning of the 24th and learn the u. K. Has exited the you alexander i hope i learn that britain is safe. Expression the real of the british people, its got a be [indiscernible] ryan it doesnt affect the digital arm . Alexander we enjoy 70 million readers digital per month. Ryan if we get jermaine, a lot of people talk about we did remain, a lot of people talk about how that is going to be accompanied by volatility. Alexander David Cameron will definitely strengthen his position. Boris johnson might be [indiscernible] the pound would be strengthened. Ruble . Oming from the alexander i am making little profit [indiscernible] still a fews million pounds. It doesnt matter much peter ryan getting back to my first matter much. Ryan getting back to my first question what do you think about the reaction to all of the fighting and clashes we have seen between the russian and england football. Russia can really get a bad name out there, doesnt it . That the it feels feeling in europe about russia has been seriously impacted. I was in zurich talking to a friend who is a big lawyer and he would say [indiscernible] we have a correspondent who would write the brits were really enjoying themselves with a lot of and fighting the police for a couple of hours, until russians kick somebody. Traded as if the russians were infiltrating. Hopefully this is what it is for. The Economic Forum is going to start improving. Ryan i want to ask you about that. This is the biggest investment form of the year and what d68 what do you say to your foreign friends . Is a time to get in . We have seen the oil price go from the high 20s to 50 a barrel. Rush is still in recession. They are still sanctions there. Russia is still in recession. There are still sanctions there. Alexander this economy, the worst is done. They Exchange Rate, the budget with thets and even gdp growth, which are estimated , top 100 countries in the world, not too good at all. I think the worse has gone. This economy has adapted. The people in businessman sanctions doesnt matter at all. It helps improving the russians because it helps substitute agriculture for example. Sanchez doesnt matter. Its just sanctions doesnt matter at all. Hopefully it is going to work. We needhave gone to find the button and be where we can properly cooperate. A lot of opportunities. Ryan owner of the Evening Standard joining us with his perspective on all awful lot of issues on an awful lot of issues. With the Investment Climate is really like here in russia. Caroline. Caroline Ryan Chilcote in st. Petersburg. Well be digging into all of those comments. Lets bring in you lets when you uptodate coming out of the japan press conference. Governor kuroda speaking out sing the effect of negative rates will become clearer. They dont think negative rates have been cutting into the banks profit. They wills continue to watch the function of the banking sector. Also speaking about the brexit affect saying it is affecting the drop in bond yields, and they have been saying the decision on brexit is up to the voters in the u. K. They are in close contact with Central Banks including the boe and they will monitor the impact of the brexit vote. It holds a fire. Will they go in july echo the yen surging in july . The yen surging. Back after this short break. Matt it is 7 50 in london. Youre looking at a live shot on this gorgeous sunny morning of the Brandenburg Gate here, right on the cusp of the tear garden. We are minutes away from the open and we are seeing caroline has been telling you lending costs borrowing costs fall to record lows. Und boned has gone the b has gone down to negative. 04 percent to the German Government to lend for 10 years. With volkswagen news coming out today. We did have some in the u. S. We have some volkswagen news coming up today. We did have some in the u. S. Because of the complexity of the issue that it has to deal with. Possibly more moving for the stock will be the press conference we get at noon. The new ceo is going to tell us thats is going to tell investors how he is going to cut costs further is going to tell investors how he is going to cut costs further. He going to bring component part makers and whether or not he will sell any of those brands. There are brands like a copy on the block like to copy on the block. Have volkswagen we will check it out after it opens in just nine minutes. Caroline . Caroline also on the back of the european car sales data. 22. 9 of theon to overall market share. On u. K. Stock this morning, how land could fall on the open. Pound land could fall on the open. Airbus ceo saying they could have trouble leading up to all of their commitments. Managing to popout 50 of those by the end of the year. It could fall 2 . Lets get into some of the central bank news. We got bob janjuah to dig through it all. I want to go further. Talk to us about the Federal Reserve, sounding far more dovish. Youre thinking a cut is more likely on the cards. Bob there is space there is space for a hike so any hike is unwarranted by the data. I am going to come back on this show and probably six months time and talk to you about the fed and why they cut rates. The jobs recession is beginning. We got they relate cycle lack of productivity. The corporate sector always response the same way by cutting costs. The biggest costs they can cut is labor. Between now and then, perhaps the july meeting september seems too far away. There may be pressure on yellen to do something. That is more to do with the election. Caroline pressure from politics, you think . Bob i think there is going to be enough a lot of pressure on ms. Yellen. If you know anything about ms. Yellen, their political leanings are well known, i think if your child, this is the same issue with brexit if you are trump, this essay makes you this is the same issue with brexit. The average joe has done bad out of this. The pressure is going to be on yellen. Is perhapss perhaps i think there is perhaps some political motivation to show trump that she is not there to backstop hillary. Not store up a little more dry powder . Costs atce of lending a alltime low going to do anything to slow up the economy . Bob it is not about slowing the economy. I think doing one more hike to show that the fed is not married to hillary, or that ms. Yellen is not prohillary or prodemocrat that she would do whatever it takes. It is not the economy. The economy is slowing down anyway. From my perspective, weve got the beginnings of some recessionary indicators flashing. I think that is going to hit worse. The u. S. Is not an island. The Global Economy is slowing down. The feds projections are advising slowdown. 3 . Is what to come in below for that economy is awful. Central bank can play with the theet but the reality economic it is not there. This is not just after brexit. Brexit is having some impact but the Bigger Picture is globally, we havent got enough demand. Anna caroline and bearish oil. Of next, we have the market opened. Check out the futures here it check out the futures. Get ready for the rio Olympic Games by switching to xfinity x1. Show me gymnastics. X1 lets you search by sport, watch nbcs highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. Im getting ready. Are you . X1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversals coverage of the rio Olympic Games. Call or go online today to switch to x1. Caroline good morning, and welcome to on the move. Alongside matt in berlin we are moments away from the start of european trading. It will be a down day. The the yen surged, japanese currency surged 22 month high. Bojks slumped after the holds fire. Yellen signals a less aggressive set of hikes, citing the Eu Referendum as a factor. The final countdown, where are we in the Brexit Debate with just a week to go before the vote . Caroline whenever i hear the how headline, i hear that song. About 1. 5 gloomy day below. As we rev up to the open we have seen already the cac is off, the ftse also down. We will likely to see significant risk aversion. Down by moreg asia than 3 today. We see concern about the bank of japans unwillingness to add more stimulus. Concerns this is the the miners will be in focus. Golden focus. We see that as a safe haven. Lets get to nejra. Nejra on the imap, it is red look athe board if you the stoxx 600. It is financial leading the losses at the moment. Health care following closely behind. The best performing group, if you can collect that is still down. That is energy stocks. Offre very much and a risk and environment at the moment. I want to bring up the 10 year, we have seen this fall to record lows. Move inust seeing it now. That yield is dropping lower. It is at 1. 09 . Is that a new record . Has an eye to see if that fallen to a new record. It looks like it has to we are to japan and australia 10 year fall to records as well. Look at the stocks were watching. Are keeping ane ion. We are waiting for mulder to open at the moment. We got some numbers. This was higher after those fullyear total revenues coming in at 155. 9 million pounds. It also saw sales continuing to grow during the year. Keep an yeye on that. Also being called higher. Do keep an eye on this. It saw fullyear earnings modestly above top and market forecasts. We have seen second half trading as robust. It had its century profit coming million pounds. We saw its market share frolic and after we got that european car sales data. Dropping the most since december. Strategy, we get a update today. Caroline the u. K. Gilt yields have fallen to record lows. Is on the u. K. 10 year. Germany is in negative territory. Japanese borrowing costs are sinking. Clinging onto any sort of positive territory. Lets get into the asset allocation. Give us a sense, bob, of where we put our money in the situation. We have every energy group the slumping. The banks are feeling the pain today. Is it still all about bonds at the moment . A longtermare investor, you can look at some element of the credit market. Health care will do well over the next 50 years. We are all getting older. I think, for the foreseeable future, theres only one trade in town. That is long duration. Ise cheapest duration market treasuries. 30 years heading towards 2 . I think we will see that in the next few months. Matt if i look at the ftse over the last year, it has outperformed the stoxx 600. Why do you think that is . Is it only because of the currency . Our investors not concerned about the brexit . Bob there has always been a story that the ftse is largely a u. K. Index. Commodities have done ok since february. The other element is that the ftse doesnt include the italian banking sector. The third thing is overreaction around brexit. Firstly, i d

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