Growth, but the u. S. Economy is doing well. Admitsd David Cameron that he and his wife own shares in a panamanian trust set up by his father. How hard will the revelation hit . Good morning, hans. A couple stories dominating. The first is whats happening in the financial markets. A move in the opposite direction, but nevertheless, everybody is on hooks waiting to see what the japanese will do. Then you have this story with David Cameron. When you and i caught up this morning, i was surprised at how dominant it was in the german press. Hans you know, when i was in the public broadcasters this morning, they all lead with the David Cameron story, the idea that he wasnt upfront. Dominating coverage here as well. In some ways it is the extent to which germany is concerned about a brexit. A great deal of concern about whether the u. K. Will leave the eu. Germany doesnt want that. Guy yeah. All things seem to revert back to brexit. Fascinating to see how it draws back into that story. Less than half in our way from the open; lets update everyone on where we see the open. Looks like we will open on the front flip. Wei function, if want to play along at home, click the futures box and you get this line. What that shows he was the european equities this morning. They will open on the front foot. Hans yeah. A lot of it is related. Lets go up to that 109 level, bouncing slightly around their. There. Topix not doing well on the back of that weaker yen, and brent north of 40. I want to look a quick look at gold. Its only down about 3. Lets get the first word with camus the romanoff and with camukumutha. Kumutha the u. S. Economy is on a solid course and not in a bubble. The fed chair was joined by her three predecessors at a Panel Discussion in new york. She said inflation and deployment remain the key indicators dictating the pace of future rate rises. We dont have a goal for the dollar. What we are looking at is the economy as a whole, and are andly paths for inflation employment to which you saw goals. Kumutha David Cameron has revealed that he did have a stake in an offshore fund set up by his late father until six years ago. That is the first time the british Prime Minister has answered the question of whether he ever benefited from the investment. He spoke to itv news. Samantha and i had a joint anount, and we had investment trust, which we sold in january, 2010. That was worth Something Like 30,000 pounds. I paid income tax on the dividend, but there was a profit on it that was less than a Capital Gains tax allowance. I didnt pay Capital Gains tax, but it was subject to all the u. K. Taxes. Kumutha is business as usual for the Icelandic Bank . Political turmoil the country is experiencing, the Central Bank Governor tells us in an exclusive interview, that plans to reduce capital control will go ahead despite the changes brought about by the Panama Papers revelation. Aboutare never concerned the politics or political process for reducing government. Governmenth whatever independence in terms of Monetary Policy with respect to government. Kumutha global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories at top. Guy thank you. Lets talk about the yen. If the japanese currency had been the big winner, japanese thtral bank is the loser as e yen surges. Its bracing to jump past 105. Then it b comes at what point does the boj intervene. Those are the questions kicking around the market. Lets get our guest in on this, the chief strategist for Morgan Stanley. Good morning. Its a big story. Its a market where you have a lot of crosscurrents between the pmi and other data picking up, but at the same time, indicators of risk like the yen and Commodity Prices have been headed down. I think those are hitting critical levels for the yen, where you are reaching levels where the market will expect some greater form of either centralbank action or policy action or both. Guy which do you think is more likely . We think it will be a mix of the two. We will get increased Central Bank Action at the policy meeting, an increase in etf purchases, but importantly, and the spoke to your previous guest, we will see fiscal policy step up in may. I think that will be an important element to complement anything the boj might do in april. Hans andrew, i want to take you off again story, although i agree it is dominating, and take you back to europe, where it seems like helicopter money was rolled out. Was helicopter money something guy and i like to talk about it, or do you think that the ecb has rolled it out as something more serious . No, i think it is something we never seriously considered to be on the table. Look, if we think about ecb action, i think the ecb needs to get credit for legitimately surprising to the upside; not just surprising, but doing so in a way that wasnt targeting the currency channel. In some ways, the way we look at this is the ecb did what was in the greater good. The world in january and february was stuck in an environment where they were concerned about competitive devaluation of currencies, and what the ecb stepped up and did was taking clear action, not based on weakening the euro but directly intervening in the credit channel. When you look at what is happening centralbank versus central bank yellen becoming more dovish, the boj stepping up give us a competitive picture. Who has got the nose ahead in terms of convincing the markets that they are the ones you should Pay Attention to . I think its a difficult backdrop. And stillen in, might be in a place, where it appears like there is cooperation between Central Banks, not to weaken currencies against each other. But in our view, it is more coincidence and cooperation. Guy shanghai didnt produce any formal, behindthescenes agreement. Not in our view. As we move forward into the summer, i think the risks increase. Its tested. The ecb will raise policy rates further. We expect additional policy action out of japan. Some of that might start to fray the optimism that there was some sort of g20 agreement. Guy andrew, stay with us. Up next, we are going to talk about constitutional violations. Apparently not enough to oust jacob zuma, as members of his party begin to turn. The question is what will it take to move the political story . We will go to johannesburg, next. Guyhans welcome back to on the move. A beautiful morning in berlin. Lets get to the first word news. Kumutha thank you. Shares and fast retailing have plunged, falling the most since 2013 after a second cut to fullyear forecasts. The boehner slowed its operating profit forecast by 1 3. The company says it was hurt by the strong yen and an unexpectedly warm winter. The fbi says it paid for the tools used to break into an iphone last month, and is considering whether to tell apple how it was done. U. S. Authorities dropped the suit against the tech giant after help from a third party to access data on the iphone 5c. The fbi has said it is not providing a hacking tool, and considering whether to provide the solution to local Law Enforcement agencies. Verizon plans to make a firstround bid for yahoo s web business next week, and is willing to inquire it to sweetened the deal, according to people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, a separate persons as google is also considering bidding for yahoo s core business. Goldman sachs has promoted a new head of its u. S. Interest rate business amid turnover. 2012, named a partner in and will leave the u. S. Interestrate products Trading Group, according to a memo obtained by Bloomberg News. That your Bloomberg Business flash. Guy thank you. Getting a bit of news out of socgen. A review seems to be resulting in a refund for the bank, plus a bit of interest, and the bank is saying it will affect its q1 results. Subbing to Pay Attention to at the open. The crisis surrounding jacob zuma worsens as a group of 40 prominent members call for an emergency meeting to discuss the leadership. Nations highest court rules the embattled president violated the constitution, using taxpayer money on his own home. Lets get the latest from a bloomberg reporter. How significant is this latest twist . Good morning. Its pretty significant. Its the first time we have seen high profile members and descendents coming out strongly, saying we want to hold the president accountable, we want to hold him accountable, we want to meeting and we wanted urgently. We saw the rand racking up losses, and it seems the markets are watching it closely. Hans if i could follow up on that rand point that is one of the strongest currencies out there this morning. You get a sense that markets want to see some sort of resolution, and this latest revelation gives the sense that we could be at the end of this story and we could have some settlement. Will definitely. Well definitely. The markets are watching this very closely. Rating agencies have pointed out that the Political Risk that has come out of south africa ever sends the former finance minister was fired quite abruptly is something that they will keep an eye on. What we are seeing on coming out against him is something really unprecedented so it is definitely a strong move against definitelyuma and good to have him step down. Guy we will leave it there. Thank you. We will continue to monitor this story. Lets talk about em now, and its relationship to the developed markets. I just want to show you this chart. The volatility story. This is an fx story. What you have is the developed market now north of where we see it in the emerging markets. Thats a fairly recent phenomenon. You can see the spike through. This is the white line of g7. The world is awash with volatility. Em, obviously, you would expect it, but nevertheless, we are seeing quite a lot. You have whats happening in south africa, in turkey, in brazil. Is it still too early to get involved, despite the fact that the developed markets have volatility looking benign . We think it is too early to get involved. On the em equity side, our em strategist has been clear. We think this is a bear market rally, not the start of a new bull market. We think we still see very weak fundamental trends. If you adjust for the composition of the indices, it does not look cheap. We still believe we are in a structural, secular dollar bull market that will weigh on e. M. If we look at the current environment, we think low levels of volatility are an opportunity to buy volatility, not an indication that this is a safe market. Guy you get a lot of pickup on bonds. If you look at brazil,. You are getting a really decent turn. You are getting a lot of volatility, but nevertheless, look at pickup. Thats a fair point. The fixed income side has done well, and i think something that are fixed income strategists have been eager to point out is that all the select opportunities, for example in brazil, remain relatively high and attractive. But even then, if you look at the return of an em hard currency bond, you are up close to 3 in five months. That is a sign of what we would expect for the entire year. I think it is an area where one needs to look with a little bit more skepticism. In the light of the Strong Performance we have had. Hans you take your gains, you book them, and for the rest of the year, where do you chase yield . For do just accept a low return environment . I think that is a major challenge. Its obvious that there is not a lot of other yield out there. I think we would be running, or are running, above average cash balances. I think that makes sense given how much equity markets have come back and how well fixed income has done. I think we are seeing better value and corporate credit, and better value in parts of securitized credit. I think those are areas where we look to continue to clip coupons over the course of the year in the context of a relatively new environment. Guy andrew, stay with us. Thank you for being here. Minutes away from the European Equity market open. Up next, how the open will progress. Ultimate battle of the charts. Hans nichols versus guy johnson you will be the winner . Andrew sheets will decide. 10 minutes until the open. Hans it is 7 53 in london, 8 53 in berlin. If no one has told you, this is when we throw two charts out there and you get to adjudicate. My chart is about oil. We spent a lot of time talking about the yen, but my goal is not to win the week its to elucidate and clarify for the viewer, hopefully for andrew. What we have is u. S. Oil production. We see it taking here, 9. 6 Million Barrels per day. It goes all the way down, right now heading in a clear direction. Output has dropped, down close to that 9 Million Barrels per day. The blue line is the price of wti sorry, what oil has traded at. It gives you a sense that the u. S. Oil producers in the plant regions, where you have some of the shale drilling, are feeling the pain. Production is down, over half a Million Barrels off the market. We will see its filter through into this oil story; it could lead to a slight rally in the price. But guy, my interest is not winning, isnt having a good chart that explains things. Guy its all about taking part, isnt it . Ive heard that somewhere before. Anyway, this is my chart. This i comes from the bank of nw york mellon. If i lose, he will take the blame. Boj intervention. Its a subject that everyone is talking about. Simon points out that there is a key phrase, onesided. If you hear finance minister use the word onesided, it could be a clue as to intervention coming. This is 2010, 2011. Andsed the phrase shortly afterwards we get intervention twice. This morning, we have seen a selloff in the yen because the current finance minister has started using similar language. This morning he used the phrase onesided. Are we about to get into intervention . Is the language critical to what is happening here . Andrew, we had it to you. Look, i think you are both winners. Guy it is going to be a draw. Both are very important. The market is following the yen and following oil, and they are probably the two most important factors in the market. Hans, to your chart on oil, i think it is important to a knowledge not just the production going down, but it has also been a drag on u. S. Growth. It has been a huge drag on structured investment. If we think about the gdp numbers you cant ignore the fact that it is being driven close to outright recessions. Our forecast hans there are a bunch of mini recessions taking place. Thank you for their participation trophy. Whole shelf full of trophies. The open is coming next. Guy good morning, you are watching on the move. I am alongside hans nichols. He is in berlin. We are moments away from the start of european trading. Hans we are watching the intervention watch. Are the japanese getting ready to step in as the top forecaster sees a surge to 1. 05. And ben bernanke and greenspan take the stage in an historic conversation. A i would describe this as bubble economy. We have relatively slow growth but the u. S. Economy has been doing well. Hans David Cameron admits that he and his wife own shares in a panamanian trust set up by his father. How hard will those revelations hit the british Prime Minister . We will be up about 0. 5 . Caroline hyde is at the touchscreen for the open. Caroline three seconds into the opening of the market and we are down 1. 5 on the week on the stock 600. It has been a bit of a risk aversion theme this week. Imf coming out seeming to say they will downgrade Global Growth prospects. But it really is going to be the miners taking a leap. You will see oil companys doing relatively well. On the downside, some of the financial institutions, gold selling off today. We open higher on the cac 40 as well. Green on your screens as we exit this particular week. Japanese yen has really been driving things over in asia. You saw japanese stocks lift off, dragging the Asian Pacific with it. This is the dollar higher, the yen going weaker. 108 seems to be what both bulls and bears thought intervention would come. Oil,ets have a look at that has been driving stocks higher up. Contracts, 39. 98 at the moment. It is been up 3. 5 this week. You will also see gold coming down. Lets check in on some of the stocks on the move. I want to check in on air france, we have numbers coming from them that were not all that fantastic. Within the rally, we see passengers up 7. 6 to 7. 2 million. Unit low cost transasia units jumped 21 in terms of passengers. Even though we see spanish cup edition regulators opening competition regulators opening a probe to investigate potential collusion, some concerns about mortgage fraud but they are getting money back from the european commission. Euros worth. This will affect their firstquarter numbers. Guy you dont get good news from the banks very often, so we need to highlight it when it happens. This is the picture, energy well big this morning, financial sectors, the secondbiggest material gain. We are definitely in a risk on mode this morning judging by the sector story. Some of the cyclicals getting a better bid as well. The energy stocks, ne 1. 4 . 1. 6 , shell up by guest is still with us here. Below the index level, tell me where i need to be positioned. Guest i think it is a challenge that if you look at the market, many of the sectors that are we are exposed to a commodity story where we do not see guy it is quite a rally back. Guest they have already moved a lot and we do not see a lot of movement here in base metals. What we like in the u. S. Is health care at the moment. We think that is a sector that has underperformed, your today. It come year to date. Certain aspects like consumer quality with staples. Guy if we see this rally carrying on, we have a meeting coming up with doha are that push doha which could oil higher. Are we too early with the help here trade . The market with the health care trade . The market continues to trade out of