and crude reality. discuss $20 per barrel in that it -- if that is off the table. here is what is getting the going this morning. i'm kind of looking at it, i'm fairly underwhelmed delegates a regional bias. so how am i viewing what is going on in china. it's another factor that he has got to think about. >> clearly they showed robust job growth. the question is really one for steve major. is the policy diversions basically priced in. that's a key question. you see no doubt from goldman that the shares are pricing in but not much more. >> here is the thing. if draghi disappoints this week you could see one heck of a move. we saw what happened in the european curves. this week, it's one of the more pivotal that we have seen so far this year. we are 28 minutes away from the european market open and at this stage we will have a little bit of disappointment in terms of the market. let me show you the fair value calculation down by around 0.4%. you get this line here. it's a smart piece of technology and it tells you roughly where these markets will open. the looks like we will start on the back foot. hans: except on the oil story. we see brent surging. the uti also heading up. we have brent close to that $40 per barrel count. pound holding on its strength gaining against the dollar after those job numbers on friday. >> thank you very much. it fell for the second month in january. latest find at the global slowdown in week domestic pressing power. hong kong residential home sales plunged 17% earlier. amid the uncertainty of the .conomy at home and in china plans by the government to boost supply in the next five years. this iranian billionaire has been sentenced to death after being found guilty in a fraud case involving an oil front. they would pay a quarter of the money they laundered. they can appeal the verdict. >> hillary clinton bernie sanders clashed over there corporate bailout. in the debate, clinton said the american auto industry would've collapsed. both agreed that michigan's republican governor should leave office. hans boy economic development is to take a priority in china city officials meeting at the people's congress gathering again today to outline national priorities at a time of slowing growth for the country. let's go to haidi lun in beijing. we can looking for clarity. what is it going to look like and what kind of reforms do you see? abovelooks like growth everything else including these painful structural reforms. they are hoping they would come up with a game plan on how the plant implant them. but the 7% gdp target, the first range we've got since 1995 a lot of a, say it doesn't give beijing the space to deal with overcapacity. more disturbingly, the widening of the fiscal deficit in the expansion of the monetary base is much higher than even nominal gdp. it will continue to add leverage to the economy at a time when most say they should be deleveraging. guy: we are due to see a crackdown in the space. it is interesting because this shows how hard it is for policymakers to target the one side of the economy or certain parts of the country where they want to revive growth. essentially a very patchy recovery. a number of his top tiered cities which are overheated to begin with, let's face it, shanghai, beijing, shenzhen. they've grown over 50% in the last 12 months and a lot of it has been due to the down payment loves. borrowing for homeowners has search to a record high. there are indications that regulators are becoming increasingly concerned about asset bubbles being built up. indeed.nk you very much let's bring in hsbc's global head of research. good morning to you stephen. put that into your world. how does it affect the market? >> if you put china in the global picture you have to sit that growth is less than people previously expected. it has to come through somehow. i think that it tends to move yields downward rather than upward. the detail is still coming through on this meeting. but i think the direction is quite clear. it is softening. guy: give me how that affects the upside-downside risk. >> the markets have been focused on the outflows. so far it seems to be matching quite well and a more benign backdrop seems to be favorable to all markets. the global picture includes china, japan and the euro zone economy. if you add it all up, i find it hard to see how we will get back to previous levels, back to where we were before. it seems very unlikely. you just give us your call for the 10 year and take a look at what bill gross is talking about, this big yield spread. i think the big yield spread as part of the reason the treasury yields come down. flow.e degree, there is a there are other mechanisms that matter here. for example, the u.s. dollar. the fed is looking at the global scene and you can see it in the stress test from january. if you add it all up, it is hard to see how the fed will hike as aggressively. guy: we will come back to you. i want to talk about those growth calls as well. particularly going back to april of last year when bill gross talked about the story. up next, we will go back to zero. than zeroscuss less and discuss the impact of negative rates ahead of the critical ecb meeting later this week. next. ♪ hans: welcome back to "on the move." i am hans nichols. let's get the bloomberg business flash. caroline: bss said to be working with advisers and financing on the accounts bid, according to people with knowledge. the german chemical producer has not made a decision about proceeding with the offer. they agreed to a merger with dow chemicals in december. commerzbank has named a successor to their ceo. they are not entirely done to investor flight. it studyccording to that says the outflows were driven more by denominated debt in anticipation of a stronger dollar. gross on it toy first of last year called the german tenure in this tweet. that was a while ago. nearly a year ago. gross said that actions from the ecb and the boj are currently going down u.s. yields. >> next week it continues to grow into negative territory to the extent that the boj continue some of down into negative territory. the treasury is supported to some extent. >> stephen from hsbc is still with us. in a most sounds like you. >> the actual pulling down isn't .ust about the flow if you look at japan or germany to explain the moving treasuries, it is about the policy reaction and there is no way the fed can tighten sing because of the rates going down in japan and europe. bloombergeople in made up. this is where gross made his call and trying to figure out why that call was made. it's the kind of where are we now and what does where are we now tell us about where the bond market is going next? >> that will give you some kind of measure of whether the bond is rich or cheap. post tapering, the yellow line when done more than the fed one. that is the point where bund yields went to five basis points guy: and and sprung higher. this is where -- and sprung higher. guy: this is where gross made the call and you think this is why he made the call? i think it was part of the explanation, yes. if you look back, there were other things to do with solvency. but boone's were rich -- but bunds were rich. fast-forward to the present and you cannot say the same thing. guy: when you talk about the price of what is happening with 10d, has the price going negative, is that -- are we going to see a further move? >> it's difficult to know what has been priced because as you know there are possibilities on the quantity of money and not just the price of money. they could do all kinds of things on credit. looks forward at 10 basis points but there is plenty of scope for surprise. imagine if they did some kind of system like in japan or switzerland and that rate could be anything. just imagine for a moment that they tiered it and they could have a penal rate or marginal could go as low as -17 or -100. it depends how much of the excess reserves you want to go through at the margin. rateso it could be ok for to go 10% for the upside but not the downside. >> the policy is about signaling and getting the capital markets and the term structure lower and deeper than zero. if that is part of the strategy as well as trying to drive inflation up, then signaling is what it is about. it does not have to be a simple 10 basis point adjustment. there is plenty of opportunity to go beyond a simple 10 basis point move. guy: a couple things i want to talk about. we spoke earlier with goldman sachs where they are positioning for a further flattening of the german curve is a risky strategy . this is what the ecb often talks about. is probably generated by what we're seeing in oil. you can see it moving further to the upside again. backhe market is pricing in inflation. how big a problem for johnny is this data going to be this week? >> i imagine he will use it in the right way and say we at least have some momentum. for the last two to three weeks. if you look at it in the context of the last few months, it's going the right way. they will be encouraged by that and it is mainly down to the oil price but they will do whatever they can to nurture that move and get it higher. >> stephen, you will stay with us. time.you for your we look at the potential for corporate movers including bsf were said to be weighing a counter bid for dupont ♪. .uy: a lovely morning in london how is the market going to trade? move." caroline: starting off with the biggest chemical giant in the market, could it be muscling in on the transatlantic deal between dupont and dow chemical. we have information according -- from people who are familiar. could they be coming out saying they would struggle to pull in the $72 billion probably needed by them to buy their rival. a little bit is being called on it but the synergies are less than you have between dupont. would you allow the number one player to have any more of the chemical market? it push down a little bit more? i've seen calls down two to 3%. this came in on friday after the bell. it could send this stock soaring. we are sing one of the wealthiest men in the world potentially eyeing up to building up his stake. they are being offered the likes of 7.6 euros per share so we could see a real pop in the share price. bloomberg shows that you can dig into the holders this is what he currently has. suddenly add to the whole holding and make a bid for s cc in its entirety. and lastly, another bit of talk of m&a in the air being recorded from the u.k. press. ?ould we see the boosted offer this is their home retail share price and you have seen it strengthen as the bidding war and suing. the giving us a cash proposal of 175. could we see even more being caroline, thank you very much indeed. >> stephen, would you be gearing up your balance sheet if you are a big corporate question mark >> -- absolutely no. >> the bas report of last year shows that corporate's work one of the sectors that took on the most debt. the problem with the debt is that it is not particularly productive and if there is a single explanation as to why the growth numbers are not cominging to stimulus up, the market open we are four minutes away and european stocks are little bit lower this morning. it is a lovely day in london. ♪ guy: good morning. you are watching "on the move." i am guy johnson, alongside hans nichols. here is your morning brief. china under wells the national people's conference. expectations surge in europe. and crude rallies. $45 amarches towards barrel, the highest level in 2016. hans: take a look here. the future is mostly negative, entirely negative. touchscreen the with caroline hyde for the market open. caroline: we had a relatively good day on friday. more than a percentage point on the ftse 100. in the same way, copper is trading lower. all eyes in china of course, over the weekend. we had the national annual people's conference. focus,re talking fiscal as they looked towards the foreign economy. all eyes were also on the u.s. after that stellar jobs data cae me out. 6/10 of 1%.p by only two companies are in the green. commerzbank is higher as they named the next chief executive. the ftse 100 will open lower on the downside. miners were the are performers of last week. the performers of last week. german factory orders are showing two months of declines. the market had been worried about something worse than that. risk aversion is pulling into the gold market. once is moving agaiin again. say, is coming into overbought. the technical indicator is showing there may be a little money coming out of copper. money though, continues to go into oil. nevertheless, we are at $30 a barrel. it seems the supply side of the equation is lining up with production. that is why oil is going lower. let's have a quick look at some of the stocks to watch. fcc is up 17%. they are taking control of his company. he is looking to buy into this. that came in after the bell friday. of 1%.tail is up by 3/10 overall, home retail is only down side of the market. we can see one of the worst performing german stocks, basf. will it be wanting to get its hands on dupont? guy: let me take you to the bloomberg imap. the market is mainly negative. oil is actually trading higher. , down is not doing badly by 3/10 of 1%. utilities are up. materials are coming down. telcos are up. materials had a stunning week last week. if you invested in anglo-american anytime that one one -- and you timed that right, you could have made money. health care is one of the out performers today. generally, financials are negative. hans: we will see what draghi does to those safe havens. the ecb is expected to deliver a package of easing measures. but what can draghi due to support the banks? earningsross said bank powers are limited. curve appears to at, and willy fl continue to be flat for a long time. to me, that means that banks, are not a bad investment, but let's face it. we are in a new age with limited ability to increase earnings based upon this flat yield curve. hans: i know you are never shopped, sometimes surprised. do you agree with bill gross? >> i'm just thinking that there is so much that can be done at this meeting of the ecb. i think it will be dangerous to underestimate mr. draghi. the track record is one thing, going back over the years, but the scope and the tools and the potential to do something in the market is still enormous. i am of the opinion that you do not bet against draghi. hans: so, when you look at potential ways they could surprise, are you looking for increase in an size in the asset purchases. >> it is complicated. the quantity of money, as you mentioned, in terms of how much they buy each month and which types of bonds are eligible, all of that can be adjusted. it has been mentioned that capital could be looked at at some point in the future. but on the rates they are reserves,or the the tiering would allow that to go much lower, if they so chose. guy: does he care about protecting bank profitability? >> i think by going gently they can actually deal with both of these challenges. it is quite clear that bank lobbyists will be putting pressure on the ecb not to go too far and too quickly. thatng does provide opportunity. we have a year or so of data and awitzerland, denmark, sweden. we can see the impact on banks. so, the data is there and the ecb has it. when it comes to this discussion, the tiering does seem to work for these other countries. guy: how do negative rates affect the worldwide system? every banker i talked to says they can't pass them on. seenoking at what we have from the evidence so far, mortgage rates went up in switzerland. bizarre, isn't it? part of it is due to the fixed floating rate. the bank is passing this negative floating charge onto someone else. there are all of these quirks at the zero bound. in fact, banks will try and make back that margin by maybe charging more. we are at a very interesting stage. we have break below zero, first of all. and for the markets to start clearing on both sides, we have to get clearly through zero. i think it is still very early days. i think this negative rate policy is only the beginning. we will look back in a few years time and discussed together, did it work or not? qe is seen as part of the central bank's talk head. back at the beginning, people said it would be inflationary, and would not work. but here we are. we have qe and negative rates. i think we should go with it, rather than sitting around complaining with it. if you go with it, you can see the central bank has the power to take the rate where it wants. i am saying negative rates as a natural extension of zero rates. hans: stephen, you talk about the other side, what banks are saying. they are complaining about their inability to turn a profit. how much of that takes place publicly and how much of it is actual private conversation with market participants? is there that much lobbying of the ecb going on? >> clearly, there are always these lobbying moves. all i can do is look at the data based on public information. i don't actually have any private insights to offer you, hans. but the numbers we have crunched for places like switzerland show the cost is not that high. the facts speak for themselves. optically, it looks very difficult for banks. that when you come to the actual numbers and you look at it as a proportion of total assets, it is not that high. guy: on bloomberg television last week, talking about the fact that there is a danger that the banks overextend poor credits because of negative rates. is that correct? >> again, we will wait and see. i expect banks have their own credit policies. my understanding of how banking works, the causality is not that you need the demand to borrow first. then, you decide whether or not you extend credit. the fact that money is cheap in terms of price does not necessarily change whether a bank will lend it or not. there is a fundamental question about because elegy. -- because causality. ofon't think it is a case stocking up with cheap money and lending it. guy: steven major, thank you very much. attacks.fresh brexit heavyweights fro speak out. ♪ guy: welcome back. let me quickly show you what is happening with the markets. then, i will show you a piece of data. european markets are 12 minutes in. the ftse 100 is absolutely flat rightg now. i can show you this on the bloomberg terminal. this is the latest here. let me just say the delta is changing a little bit. surface, but ise relatively good news. what we never get to see is the breakdown. a lot of the outflow from china is repaying loans. repaying or is's it household money rushing out of the company? it is hard to say. on the surface, it looks like there is a slight positive there. it is less bad. guy: good stuff. let's get to bloomberg first world news. nejra: chinese regulators are said to be planning to impose new rules to end the practice of homebuyers taking out loans to cover down payments. the move will affect developers, small and companies, and others. hong kong residential home sales plunged 70% in february from a year earlier to a 25 year low. property prices have declined by 10% from their september highs. that is amid uncertainty over the economy at home and in china. the government plans to boost housing supplies in the next five years. german factory orders fell for the second month in january. orders adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped. it is the latest sign that a global slowdown may be hurting europe's largest economy. the reigning billionaire has been sentenced to death after being found guilty. the court found enough evidence to convict him and two others, who were also sentenced to death. they were also ordered to repay a quarter of the money they laundered. appeal the verdict. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 3400 journalists in bureaus nurs news around the world. guy: david cameron faces a double blow on the brexit. michael go told the sunday times that the eu had inflicted pain on europe. a london man repeated his opposition to cameron's stance. the jailerlike a -- has accidentally left the door of the jail open and people can see the land beyond. is worried about the terrors of the world outside. actually, it would be a huge weight lifted from british business. bcns: on the same b program, the german finance minister warned that they will still have to pay in if it wants access to a single market. you are either in the market or you are not in as the single market. if you are not in it, you have trade agreements. of course there are countries in europe that are part of the in market, but they still have to pay. theally, they have disadvantages of the common market and they are not involved in the decision-making process of the internal single market. hans: for more on this, let's go back to london with steven major. steven, i love your euro-dollar $1.20 call. how is this talk about the brexit filtering into what is happening with the euro-dollar? >> as we were previously treasury yields are lower. the compression of the interest rate spread is a strong fact supporting the euro-dollar fall. debate, for sterling, it does not do list any favors. this uncertainty delays investment, it makes people frightened about a negative outcome, and it is not good for growth. it is one other factor to throw into the mix. sterling is probably going to be weak for a few months. guy: the market is pricing -- and in their certain cases, pricing in cuts. that is probably true in a sterling as well. are there any opportunities in there? as a look at the market being overly aggressive, how do i price that working forward? >> the first thoughts i have with sterling, having done this work with negative rates, the uk is not in a position to even go there really. we have a big deficit in this country. it has not escaped my attention. the lastrates are thing we will want, but the rate is still quite high. probably what is going to happen is nothing. ith the brexit risk in june, would be slightly crazy to do anything ahead of that. i think markets are going to be distorted through june. a huge opportunity actually, as we get to the vote. market is distorted. the currency could well be getting too cheap. guy: i heard a few people talking about that. i want to show you what is happening with the european equity space. we are starting to see markets turn a little more positive about that negative position at the get go. the london market is positive. the reason for that -- and i want to take you to the imap. and materials are leading the stoxx 600. we are seeing those two really surging higher. that is unsurprising when you think about the fact that rent brent and metals prices are surging higher. up next, the battle of the charts. the expectations of $20 a barrel have now faded. ♪ guy: you are watching "on the move." equities are beginning to get on the front foot. this is because oil is moving higher and energy stocks are moving to the upside. the chance of $20 oil are beginning to fade. let's get today's charts that matter with caroline hyde. we are also going to bring a chart in from bloomberg's technical analyst, steven major. caroline, let's start with you. caroline: you were just talking about the fast pace of cutting the bearish bets. sir positions are being taken off the table. we are down 15% overall, in terms of short positions. now, short positions stand at the about $150,000 at moment. we are suddenly seeing a decrease in the amount of bearish bets. we can see them cut by $25,000. this is coming from the cftc data. they are clearly, cutting production by 11% this year. we also have opec and non opec meeting march 20. will that result in a freeze of production? this means that now, oil is 40% higher than that low we had february 11. we managed to pick up 40% from that low level. the $20 goldman sachs was talking about a few months ago, many feel that is now unlikely. you know oil so well, it is clear he will be the new bureau chief. how do you describe the latest price action in brent and what are the technicals telling you? just as telling to guy month ago and we were talking about how constructive we were looking on brent. time in early february, we were breaking down key moving averages. fast-forward to today, what has happened? we have been gradually going up and volatility has subsided. that has been a key macro variable for other asset classes who look at oil for direction. the chart i am joined you here is a weekly chart on brent crude. -- i am showing you here is a weekly chart on brent crude. two things change the outcome of oil. when we last spoke, we talk about the steady six. came a bit lower in mid february. we went back to test it. level andted that then finally last week, we saw conclusive break off at $36. at 30 six dollars. with this timeline, you can see this is the trend line from april of 2014. in april, we were trading north of $115. i have seen a conclusive breakout above that level. that adds to the upside. guy: let's talk about the moving averages. how significant is that line? talk me through what kind of resistance? we face on the upside? >> just before that, we have the august low. that is the next stop. $42.is around i think you will have a tough time breaking that. moving average is about $46. that is a very important moving average. if we break that, we can come up with some confidence, say we saw a major low for oil back in january. you very much in need. steven major, thank you very much indeed. ♪ guy: a comeback. we are 30 minutes into the trading session. how are market shaking up? an interesting stock for the week here and we have european markets oscillating. the story surrounding energies is fascinating. let's talk about one of the key stocks we need to be watching. here is caroline hyde. caroline: we have to be keeping an eye on sedro. what a move. check this out, we are in the biggest record move procedure in its history. 46% in one day alone. it is an incredibly volatile stock. it seems to move with the wind. oil is higher. 46% higher? a key billionaire in the stock would be supporting it if they financesur out their into a company that did not have significant leverage. what would they be doing to restructure that? investors in this company helped supported going forward. sedro on the 47% higher. is falling over from south african trading. where up 8%. why? speculation of a breakup. speculation of a restructuring. its roots in africa. it is traded here in the united kingdom. africa's biggest insurer rising. they might have plans to split into standalone businesses. they confirm they are considering all options as part of a strategic review. edfof the worst performers, fascinating moves happening. the cfo has quit last week after disagreeing with executives about the timing. the new nuclear reactors in the u.k.. the chief financial officer feels the decision should be made in april. i must add the edf spoke -- has .enied to confirm they're been beaten up by that news. hans, sending it back to you. hans: china has announced the growth target of 6.5% for this year at that people's conference over the weekend. it is what authorities did not say that may matter most to investors. let's go to out to hao hong in hong kong. it seems as though the conversation in asia and china is a photo negative, at least on the fiscal side of what is happening with the ecb. strength andpolicy ammunition to direct at the problem? what is your take? do the physical maestros have the ability to put anything out you go hao: in terms of monetary stimulus, it is an much more they can do as we have noticed. money supply side for next year is 13% which is 1% higher than last year. keep in mind that at this rate, trillionne aged 40 worth of him to. going at 13%, we are talking about a gdp monetization rate high.lose to the 2009 that is the reason why in terms of monetary policy, there is an net much they could do. even if they were a lot more monitors stimulus, it is not going to help. on the stimulus side, we see a slightly higher fiscal deficit target. 3%. what they actually spent last year which is well over 3%, we think on the fiscal fiscale can see this deficit well above 3%. maybe even closer to 4%. -- hans: how to follow up on that 4% target. if that is the target, how likely are they then -- will be see any follow-through in the economy? a lot of this having to do with signaling and if the signal has the effect that you wanted to have -- that you want it to have? hao: in terms of fiscal deficit, much of it is coming from the revenue side which means probably a tax reduction. finance isinister of talking about having a tax reduction for personal income. actually rollout reform to various industries that would lower the tax burden for many in the chinese economy. i would say is of the structure of the deficit, even though the deficit is higher, the structure is better. general sectorhe for the economy, which has been very high on the chinese economy. once we roll it out, the factory beneficiary or the chinese government. you with the crack's are appearing, when you look at asset prices, if you extrapolate what we heard from chinese to -- on where the crack's an asset pricing is appearing, what are your views? hao: and housing property, there is a crack there. in the chinese housing market, even though we have quite a bit of hollis he easing in the sector, that's quite a bit of policy easing in the sector, you onl only see it rising -- tier 34 five cities, not come back. those cities represent about 60% of the chinese poverty investment. -- chinese property investment. positiven into property investment growth. it would actually keep a lid desk give a lift to the chinese economic growth. -- give a lift to the chinese economic growth. hong kong does not have its own central bank, so to raise interest rates -- the interest earned in hong kong tens to be rising as well. -- tens to be rising as well. hans: i am curious to extrapolate -- you see advertising sydney harborside property and whether people will be buying those. watching the data you are talking about, the same true for london. how much of a global phenomenon -- is this? how is the tentacles going to reach out, how is this going to affect the global economy? hao: chinese money has been one of the bigger drivers for the hong kong property market. mainland flood of and chinese -- and push up the price, the government imposed quite a bit of restrictions on mainland purchases. [indiscernible] also we have seen very bad property sales in hong kong. on to the rest of the world, because now the chinese is trying to stabilize the yen -- the yuan. in order to continue easing money through policy, it will have to put some sort of capital control on the chinese money going abroad to buy stuff. less and less chinese money becomes available, it would put down pressure on the global company market is well. in hong kong. thank you for joining us. from hong kong to frankfurt. who is next? who is martin zoellick he? we ask about the new ceo coming up next. ♪ guy: i am guy johnson in london did this is "on the move." let me show you what is happening on the european equity markets, 41 minutes into the session. we are turning more negative. the taxes now down -- the dax is now down. vw showing weakness this morning. the french market is down. edf is up sharply. ad court is trading up sharply. the market is trading lows as we speak. here's nejra cehic. nejra: basf is working with financing banks on the merit of making a counter bid for dupont. according to people with knowledge, the german chemical producer has not made a decision yet about proceeding. dupont which has a capitalization of $50 billion agreed to a merger with dow chemical in december. shares are trading lower this morning. martin zilkha is the chief -- an insidercer at germany's second-largest bank is known for overhauling its consumer inking unit. persistent capital outflows from china since mid-2014 were not down to investor plight. the outflows were driven more by local companies hang down there dollar-denominated debt. in anticipation of a stronger greenback. that is your group -- that is your bloomberg business flash. hans go germany's second-largest bank has chosen martin's olga -- the: -- what -- on does a signal that they have gone with an insider? cooks it is fair to say that over the past four months, the search has been extensive. in the word of supervisory chair board chairman, they have searched internationally. we keen to include female candidates. seb wasof swedish bank also a potential candidate. anhink the chances of internal candidate winning out in the end were going to behind. -- going to be high. guy: one of the few left standing post crisis, does the fact that we are going with an internal guy doesn't mean there is going to be a continuation of strategy? what does signal about where the bank goes next? back atif you look commerzbank's history, this is a bank which is landed with quite a firm bought after an international adventure which took it into the vortex of the subprime crisis of the financial crisis of the european debt crisis here it -- crisis. we have seen a lot of retrenching under martin blessing. we have seen the resumption of .he dividend it was a firm step forward. this is a bank that is in a recovery mode, but still not quite out of the woods yet. the choice of martin's olga is one that speaks to continuity continuingity -- blessings strategy and focusing on private customers and on business. hans: angela, thank you very much. angela cullen, joining us this morning. eu leaders are meeting in brussels for an emergency summit . at least 135 thousand people have made their way into europe so far this year. that is from turkey to greece. eu members are divided on how best to tackled the backlog of the silent speakers. let's go live to brussels. ryan chilcote is there. what is the eu looking to accomplish? in a nutshell, what they want to encompass is find a european resolution to the refugee crisis which is something they have try to do before. as you pointed out something that has eluded them. they want to do it anyway whereby they can maintain the passport free travel that eu citizens normally enjoy. where angela merkel, the german chancellor, can say to the german public ahead of this election on the 13th, we can taken these refugees, do not worry. we only have to do it to a point because people are going to help us out. absolutely key to that is getting the number of refugees to come into the eu up from turkey, to see that number decline. hans? the greek prime minister front and center. he said it is a european problem, what exactly is the message he is bringing? ryan: look, greece is the port of call where almost all of the refugees coming from turkey go and enter the european union. many of them end up in greece. what he is saying is you need to help us with this problem. there are a couple of things you look to see, like financial assistance for accommodating the refugees, building refugee camps . he would like to see, and he kept on saying this, when he was talking about burden sharing and making a european wide resolution. what you like to see is leniency when it comes to greece's financial problems. it puts an additional burden on greece, namely they've got 26 packet.bucks eight they want to get the rest. there negotiating with the court. -- they are negotiating with the court. said you needve to lean on the court. get leniency for us so we can get the ball rolling and get the court to distribute or do the homework so you can distribute it later. if investors think some of that leniency is being rewarded to greece. guy: ryan, thank you very much indeed. he is going to be meeting with merkel, and juncker ahead of the summit. we're going to look ahead of desolate ahead -- what it could mean for the foreign exchange market. that is next here on on the move. ♪ guy: 51 minutes past the hour. you're watching on the move. a beautiful day here in london. bright, cold, trying not to snow. down on the ftse 100. the dax leading is lower, down by .9%. equity markets down. tell communication stocks, one of the areas of losses -- telecommunication stocks, one of the areas of losses. we have all of that action in frankfurt. you can follow these events on top five at bloomberg go. mark carney quiz in parliament. all of the action thursday at ecb. it has that rate decision and wes conference. i think we should make the executive decision to move the entire show to frankfurt. we will set up a set of the ecb's new headquarters. up outside of it the ecb's new headquarters. the 10% rate cut? do you think they go bigger with quantitative easing? >> i think the market is priced in about 12 asus points which is not one million miles -- 12 basis points which is not one million miles away from where we -- we wereg it in in in december. i think probably 15 to 20 basis points perhaps. guy: how does he surprised? richard: i think that is the surprise. i think it is enough to do two things the ecb wants to do, cap the currency and yields. those are the two things that will fee into the real economy -- feed into the real economy. guy: leslie, biggest move in five-year -- last week, biggest move in five-year. this is the euro five-year five-year. it doesn't look like much, but that is an essential move. you can look this two ways, they need to get a pickup in -- and inflation did on the other hand, -- pickup in inflation. ishard: what the problem that move in the chart that you put on the screen there is very much a move on the impact of oil. the problem the ecb has had is the most recent inflation data, the court is what led to reading lower. if core inflation remains contained, that means it is not due to the transitory effects of oil. core inflation is far too low. low: corporation staying did that undercuts the view of the world. he is saying we have these five-year five years. what do they really look at? i know we think they look at the five-year five years. have they ever given us a positive signal that this is the affirming number that they look at when they try to hit that price building target? richard: i think they do look at it, there is the question. the core inflation is a concern for the ecb. if we don't get a jump in core inflation, oil is rising. the bigger problem is the core because that is not something that is transitory here it that is something that is feeding into the real economy. that is something they would be worried about. guy: stanley fischer speaks a little later on. how do you think he will -- you look at what is happening with oil, how does these guys communicate where the fed goes next? what you think the signals going to be? richard: there's been a lot of talk where they are concerned with meeting their lower inflation goals. they see concerns about market volatility. they see specific concerns about china. i don't think any of those concerns about a way. sense, qe istion what the fed look set. if it means climbing a little bit higher, but nowhere near levels where you think the inflation is getting out of control. hans: the first question to mario draghi should be was this decision unanimous? or why do not you go further -- why didn't you go further? risk of the question will be was this further?unanimous -- richard: the question will be was this decision unanimous? i think that has to be the first question. guy: we will see what it is. richard jones from bloomberg first word. the pulse is up next. we are going to monitor events in brussels as we watch this migration the break -- migration debate. ecb.is happening with the the ftse 100 is trading down .5%. -- stay with bloomberg television. the pulses up next. good morning. ♪

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