Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20150226

Fiveyear, data drives of money. You pay the ecb more to hold your money. As acted in your money. It contorts markets. Drives into higher yields. That is either the risk or the reward. Germany confidence is at a 10 year high, according to bloomberg intelligence. Up 0. 6 . Lets see if its on the register yet, not as of yet. A drug for diabetes comes through. A look at some of the other names. The ceo this morning, a little bit earlier, and rbs, waiting for that to open. Unexpected drop will dropped 1. 22 . That Company Operating profit dropped just under 600 Million Euros down from 700 Million Euros. Since 2014, 230 billion euros left. Sanofi has a new drug on his register. Rbs seems to like what it is hearing. Additional top of one million times the loss seven in a row. It is considerably lower. Picking up the u. S. Assets for 3 billion. And ultra bank, it is pretty phenomenal. Taking a charge off in the bank. Ultra has been able to release some of the reserves. The bonuses are dying and are down. Sanofi down and allianz has not open as of yet and that could be a mover of the day. I am looking at the ftse 100 and it is lower. It has been 10 minutes as we talked about greek so lets do it. Yabus varoufakis said he is counting on draghi to avoid a default. He sounded confident that the country will not have a cash flow problem. I am optimistic because we all struggle to through long hours of discussions. To come to this stage where we have an agreement that our loan with our partners and institutions. I find it hard to imagine that europe and the imf will allow us to what is a relatively low cash flow problem. Lets get out to our athens the bureau. Optimistic tone from mr. Varoufakis a lot of work to be done here. Absolutely, yes. This agreement was about getting us through a deadline by the end of the bailout. Not being pushed forward until the end of june the real negotiation and hard work is full ahead, the differences that existed between greece and the creditors and other members and they still exist. It still a to be bridged. As you heard on the segment, greece responding. Thats why have to be resolved quickly. Lets talk about what happens in 4 months and lets say it goes swimmingly, i doubt it. At the end, a big ecb in july and august, where will greece be at that point . Well, if everything goes swimmingly, we have some kind of Successful Program in place. We heard in an interview with varoufakis that really there needs to be a readjustment of the surplus for example, 5 of gdp. The question of the financing gap which the government acknowledges. Everything going swimmingly we were needed to somehow figure out the means to finance greece beyond the current bailout. And of coarse for that to happen, it goes back to the doors differences that need to resolved between greece on the one hand and the creditors on the other. Germany, is an example, but not the other one. It emphasizes why were likely to have a bumpy ride during the 4 months ahead. Because if these differences are unabridged during these talks, we will have a big problem come june. A big problem and might last longer than june. Marcus benasson. Lets get to the investors take. Andreas. Great to have you with us. Greece, the solution is so far, will talk about the Banking Sector in 20 different ways. Is it enough . I do not think so. It is probable we will the control. Varoufakis is a guess a hard a bargain but the outcome is indeterminate. It is different from the eurogroup. Grease tends to gain more it lose more if they have to lose the leave the eurozone. The eurogroup is very strong as so the concessions they will give brees is very limited and will be interesting. What is your read it agrees right now . In greece right nows . Are they insolvent . That no one knows enough of by about that. It is a political decision. We talk about greek politics so much as a note you sent to me is the risk is bigger than talk to me about that. In the event of a greek exit but i think medium term, it will comes clear to the rest of the eurogroup to get their act together and away actually strengthened the euro nfl will calm down. To u. K. Of the European Union would be a risk and it would produce some world soulsearching and also put the union and u. K. At risk. Another referendum on Scottish Independence and this time, proindependence of votes would win. Political chaos is one thing and what doesnt mean for the markets and economy, the grexit risk . With seen the markets and more Political Risk for we have seen the markets and or Political Risk for the past couple of years ignore Political Risk for the past couple of years. Look at sterling denominated assets do you expect to see weakness if we get close to the situation of that would be the case. The bank of england that would be the case. The bank of england has shown they can. Andreas utermann will stay with us. If a solid deal is struck. Headlines in the german a bond market. Tyear 7year bond market in the negative. Join us in 2. Welcome back. 10 minutes into training. We have a headline. He will step down in a general. We have a replacement, bill winters. Bill winters to be named chief executive. He will step down in june most of a little bit more uncertainty. Still climbing by 3. 8 . When the stoxx info is. A big headline yesterday. One of the stocks in focus. It is germanys turn to take the headline. Seven year is heading into negative territory. Look at what we have got. Their record highs in the equity and is overvalued and maybe both. Lets put that question to andreas utermann. Help me out here. Equities or bonds, if there is one, a bubble . I do not think there is a bubble. For a bubble to the all bubble, we need to leverage and theres not a lot of leverage. It is not a bubble. Bonds are clearly overvalued because they yield negative yields of inflation across pretty much the whole yield curve. They are telling us that will be no inflation for the next 20 or 30 years in of the ocd. That is a big statement. It is overvalued. That said, the question is, the question you are implying, why are people excepting negative yields . The answer is potentially because to keep your money safe in the new post a great financial crisis in layman, you should not over expect safe assets to yield a return. Maybe we should a rethink the tenants of what it is. It is a temporary phenomenon or has it been well a while . It will be around quite a while. We think it will last for quite a while. Exactly how long is difficult to say. But five years as far as anybody wants to project themselves. The stocks, total public has not come down since the great financial crisis. Would you look at the german sovereign curve and compare it to 12 months ago, that was no on any german debt. The ecb is still not in the market. The ecb comes into the market can they really by the front it of the curve and buy bonds . That will be tricky. We have some doubt they will be able to reach of their target. That is very clear. Going to your question of valuation. Now, ask a really if you didnt bonds are overvalued or undervalued, the fact is that they have a negative yields. If you want any positive yield you need to invest in other risk assets or whatever. And Everybody Needs most people need a positive yields so therefore that explains why equities are doing well. The other point to make is how do you evaluate and equity when one deals are close to zero . The closer to zero it gets the higher your equity valuation could go in to infinity. That is not helpful. Dividend yields across the world is pretty much around historic averages. Companies have gotten good dividend covers as some are increasing dividends and 3 4 of the eurozone whatever you look at 2015, that looks pretty normal to me. No sign of overvaluation. Europe for a dividend yield or elsewhere . Anywhere really. What have you been buying . We continue to believe emerging markets offer value against historic averages. What we have in the ocd and those levels are pretty much under control certainly on the government side which is a major influence. Fundamentally, most of these currencies are overvalued. Though local currency rates i want to talk to you. The Federal Reserve and people getting jittery about them hiking rates. Is it already in . Absolutely. The absence of a fundamental Capital Financial global system flows will continue to go with returns of the highest even into emerging markets. Therefore, once we reach the first said hike companies currencies are set to go up. Is that your big one this year . A dividend equities. You heard the man. Andreas utermann. Bank of that is a focus, Standard Charter gets a new ceo bill winters. Rbs seven year of losses. That and much more. Good morning and welcome back. Some of the top stories. Spain company agreed to buy the largest and Electricity Company will join access and create an american traded stock and it will create a utility with more than 3 million stops. Greek finance minister varoufakis is counting on the ecb when it runs out of cash and say greek bond yields could reach 1 is a solid deal is struck. We spoke to varoufakis who said money is pouring back into greek a banks. Yesterday, we had to deposit flight back of 700 Million Euros. As a result of the news of this bridge ended up 4 month. I have not checked today. You are still down by tens of billions. Once you turn the tide you hope. A big 24 hours in the Banking Sector. Morgan stanley will pay to settle a u. S. Probe. It makes it the fourth bank to settle over the probes. Jpmorgan, bank of america, and citigroup have settled for a total of more than 36 billion. A busy 24 hours for banks. A busy morning for tanks and the u. K. Banks in at the u. K. A new ceo for Standard Chartered, bill winters. Caroline hyde. We know the former coceo bill winters, is coming back. He has set up an asset manager. Now he moves back to Standard Chartered for 1. 5 Million Pounds annual salary and compensating for his losses. Overall, bill winters will become the new ceo for the an announcement has just come. The current is stepping down. Winters will be stepping in june. A cut in the board. They are trying to cut from their half at the moment. Three longstanding members of the board will step down including the chairman. He will go in 2016. The key news is, bill winter was formerly coceo of stanley is coming back and will be the chief executive. His base salary is 1. 5 Million Pounds. I said billion, my apologies. In ubs and the talk. Seven consecutive annual loss. The seo waving his one million extra share. The ceo waiving his 1 million extra share. Incentive share. We got the annual loss. 3. 5 billion euro loss. As a took a mighty charge related to the United States citizens and business. It is a company slimming down. Restructuring of rbs Going Forward exiting Central Europe africa and reducing their exposure to asia and in the United States as well. In fact they will only be a 15 or fewer countries Going Forward. Substantial job losses are comic is what the chief executive has said. And restructuring to come in 2015 will be materially higher. The good news is they are offloading their assets and managing to get rid of the u. S. Folio four 3 million. 36 billion Loan Portfolio to a company. Riskweighted assets going down and increasing their base and boosting capital ratios. If they get to 13, they will say shareholders, we will give you money back. You and me, 80 taxpayer held. We traded at 405 pence. So close. We just touched the break even. We are getting there slowly. Still paying, painful yesterday. Hsbc executives and it looks painful. But it does look painful being called fatcats. Gulliver said remand me. Remind me. It was a two hour battery that they got from the mps. Gulliver, the ceo of they were helping clients evade taxes, not any old client but criminals, arms dealers blood diamond traffickers and that is what being reported on. They said we are shifting responsibility. It is not our fault but the swiss managers and relationship managers. It has done a huge harm. Take a listen. Recognize what is said in the paper and it is not what the organization has dedicated their careers to. It has been devastating for hsbc and we have a huge challenge. Crocs out what outlined how hard it done employees have filled it and how hard they are and they do not recognize the hsbc being put in the spotlight. That is why the chairman is trying to say i anywhere responsible and it doesnt feel like what i am associated with. He will not be taking his bonus. He has not taken a bonuses 2010. What is interesting is what shareholders will demand. Canada ceo can the chairman still remain chairman . He is at the moment trying to explain why he himself has stepped up back as well. Chaos at hsbc. Chaos in ukrainian current see. Introducing it and i will explain after the break. Good morning and welcome back. 30 minutes into the trading session. As i speak, the ftse 100, up by 7 points. The dax, north of 11,000 points. Plenty of storage inside those indices. Lets get to the top stock stories with caroline hyde. We are going to be going to one of the top performers today on the back of news. Change at the top. Standard chartered trading up 3 . Uk bank, big presence in asia. Theyre going to be luring back phil winters. Bill winters. He went off to be an asset manager. Now lured back as peter stance peter sands steps down. They have got the chairman is to step down in 2016. Also three longestserving Board Members are also to retire. They will have 14 members of the board Going Forward. As the bank tries to reduce jobs of the banks. Trying to improve Capital Buffers as well. A lot of change going on at Standard Chartered. Reed elsevier down by 5 . It is overhauling its management. Combining assets below two Parent Companies into one single entity. Eliminating the Parent Company cross shareholding. This is a company that publishes trade journals. It also owns lexisnexis. Slaesales up 3 . Allianz also in focus. Why . Pimco. Why . Bill gross. Exit bill gross sturred outflow to assets to the tune of 2356 billion euros. Shares are falling because there is an unexpected decline in fourthquarter profit. Hpwow dop i segue from stocks to ukraine . Bond yields in ukraine moving high. Record highs, 18 billion in emergency loans from the imf at risk. Some investors believe that russia is damaging ukraines economy faster than the west can deride assistance. Ryan chilcote joins us. Whos waiting . If you look at the bond market the answer is many people think russia is winning. Ukrainian bonds on yielding 56 . That is the benchmark bond that matures in 2017. Ukraine has got 2. 6 billion worth of them they have issued. Think about this it was february 12 that Christine Lagarde came out and said the imf is going to provide 17 . 5 billion in Financial Assistance to the ukraine. In addition to maybe 25 billion more from other countries. And yet what is happened with yields . Yields have gone at the time from 37 to the 5566 . Investors cannot get rid of ukrainian bonds fast enough or they are just a little too concerned about the deteriorating Economic Situation in the country. The countrys ability tree payloads. Part of that is the geopolitical problem. The continuing conflict in the east of the country. We had a note out, a statement from the imf late yesterday saying that they are going to meet on march 11 to discuss the ukrainian funding, that 17. 5 billion could not come fast enough. The imf saying if ukraine gets the money, they will frontload that cash. But we did also hear from two people familiar with the deliberations saying that while they think that money is going to come if the war expands, if it goes to other cities like maripol what you could see is the imf getting cooler about providing that money. And individual countries having to step in and fund the gasp. The gap. Lets talk about the central bank in ukraine. I left work. I thought they banned currency trading. I woke up they changed course. They did. All currency trading yesterday morning before the market opened surprising everyone. You can kind of understand where they are coming from. Ukraines currency has fallen 70 since the beginning of last year. It was down 50 since the beginning of this year alone. Obviously, they want it to see to stop the depreciation. The Prime Minister criticized the Central Banks move. Then them was a meeting between the president and the finance minister, the Prime Minister had criticized the central bank and the Central Bank Governor herself. Guess what . After the market close though no one was trading their currency yesterday, they reversed course. Waiting for the currency to begin trading today again. Thank you. We will spend time talking about Central Bank Independence in the next segment. Joining us now is the global head of fx strategy at bnp pari bas. Morning, jon. Lets talk about capital controls. We sit here from 50,000 feet and talk about ukrainian currency. The russian ruble. Bnp paribas, if you wanted to trade these currencies, how difficult is it . Very difficult. The Central Bank Response smacks of desperation. It is difficult times. This is political much more than it is economic. I think this is why you are seeing these quite aggressive moves. Really trying to cling onto things. That is the best way to describe it. Outside of this crisis, are there any other properties . Yes and no. The key point we would say is that the rest of Eastern Europe tends to be much more related to the eurozone. Their interesting to be what is going on as far as europe is concerned. The russian situation really is quite special. The key to look out for is whether is a followon to other emerging markets. Does not seem to be at the moment. Its very focused on the russian situation. The politics in the east of ukraine one phenomenon. I bring it back inside europe in the deal between greece and thei r creditors. The euro has firmed up somewhat. How much downside is left . Quite a lot. It is interesting to focus on greece. We do not think greece is the driver as far as the euro is concerned. The eurogroup wants greece to try harder. Much more important for us as quantitative easing. Outflows we continue to see on the portfolio site. And the feds going to hike rates. It is that policy diversion and q. E. In the eurozone that is driving the euro lower. Our target for the year end is 1. 05. The key point is to focus on more fed liftoff. Eurosterling, everyone short eurosterling, i get that. As we get closer to the election, how does that work out . This is been one of our top trade ideas. For almost a year. Yesterday, we talked profit on our short eurosterling. We locked in our best ever Trading Profit at 6. 5 . Exactly as you said, now is the time to go to the sidelines. We have the election. There is a bit of uncertainty going on. The keep point we highlight is the market seems to be about right in what its pricing in. A key factor up until now that we had been stressing that was the wish sterling was the market is behind the curve as far as predicting the bank of england is concerned. We think the bank of england goes in february, that is what the market is saying now. Trading at 0. 7318 as you and i speak. Can this go higher . If we get that serious amount of uncertainty around the election, if we way a cup the day after with no clear winner if we wake up the day after with no clear winner. It is interesting because i would say that the against fear for sterling is an eu referendum. When ice bestie clients globally and talk about the u. K. In sterling, this is what people are nervous about. Is the u. K. Going to stay within the eu. The key point i would make, if there is a conservative victory, thats really the uncertainty for the sterling. In that situation, sterling could suffer. In london now. Book your holiday . After the break we will talk about the fed. Dont fight the fed because the fed fights back. Janet yellen talked to the critics who attacks the fed. We talk Central Bank Independence. Good morning and welcome back. This is on the move. If you watch Janet Yellens semiannual testimony he will have noticed janet yellen had to spend a lot of time defending the central bank against accusations of political bias. Here is a taster. Ive described trends in income inequality in the United States. I have never said that the Federal Reserve is the right agency to deal with those. When asked what contribution they why are you talking about it . I also talked about longrun budget problems and deficit problems. In the country, and your response i think correctly so so point out you are not political. When you start to talk about items that are outside your jurisdiction every Federal Reserve chair, all my predecessors have talked about large, important Economic Trends and problems affecting the country. Whether it has to do with trade or productivity or developments of energy markets. I feel i am entitled to do the same. Pens pointing everywhere toys all over the floor on capitol hill. That was a fiery janet yellen. But if you want to talk about Central Bank Independence, moving away from d. C. And go straight to turkey. The Turkish Central Bank continues to come under political fire from the president. Erdogan, even after cutting rates. Yesterday erdogan insisted he will continue to make warnings on rate cuts calling the recent 25 basis point cut condescending. Lets bring back the head of fx strategy at bnp paribas. Fire yesterday. You watch that. A lot more time talking about that kind of stuff then Monetary Policy. What is your take on . This is a key point. If you are central banker, you have to look at the fiscal side very closely. Uks a good example, too. So the central bank has to take that on board. If you have a government that comes in and has tight fiscal policy, that is going to have an impact on Monetary Policy. From what janet yellen is saying, she has to take that into account. This will always be the situation. There will always be a tradeoff between the politicians and the central bank. Another great example is ecb. Politicians have been on their case to ease policy for a long time and there has been pushed back. The key point is marrying Monetary Policy on one side with fiscal policy. Turkey a different story. We will get to e. M. Currencies in the moment. Lets talk about fundamentals inflation. Inflation out of the United States at 1 30 uk time. Will this be the trigger for the fed . This is a key thing to focus on particularly what janet yellen has told us in her testimony that inflation is key. What we looking for is a negative reading on a year on year basis in the headline inflation in print. This is largely oil driven. More informative is what is going on in coal. We think it will be stable. 1. 6 year on year. Something in it for both the dollar bulls and bears over the last two days, how much stronger can the dollar get . We assume terrific rally over the last 12 months. This is a good question. There are more dollar bears in the last 48 hours given that janet yellen has disappointed most polls out there. It can continue to move higher. The fed is going to hike rates. We think that they will hike rates in september. If they do, that will highlight the diversions with the eurozone. As long as we are on track for then, the dollar continues to move higher. The risk is that the high push back into 2016, that is when the dollar bears come out of the woodwork. A previous guest was talking about how the fed hike was priced and even in the e. M. Space. Do you subscribe to that . A fed hike is priced in. If you look at what is or to having a to yield, what is going to happen to two year yields, we think they are going higher in the u. S. If the fed does start to tighten, the market will price in more hikes. From our perspective, yes it is priced in. There is going to be more yield support and we think the dollar is going higher. Everyone is talking about diverges. 2015 has been about easing, rate cuts. China no different. If i want to play the china theme, should i go to new zealand . Is that the story right now . For a start, the point we make on china we think looking at the run in the theres too much bearishness priced in. One of our points is to own the renmimbi. As far as new zealand is concerned, we think it is the top picks. It gets back to the surprises we had this year. If you look at this fellow commodity currencies, canada australia, they both cut rates. Westerly cuts again. Very disappointing Capital Expenditure out of australia. New zealand is unlikely to cut and they have the highest yield at 350 basis points. That makes it pretty clear case for new zealand of performance. I have the bond guys saying buy new zealand bonds. Why wont they cute rates . They do not need to know. It was only a few months ago the market was pricing in more hikes. Rather than going to pricing cuts, theyve taken out the hikes. In our minds, long new zealand makes a lot of sense not necessarily against the dollar. Kiwiyen is performing very well. You want to trade kiwiyen. Thank you for joining us. Rbs posted their seventh loss. More restructuring costs including job cuts are to come. The ceo forfeited one Million Pounds of his pay this year. Investors seemed to shrug that off. Stock flat on the day. Standard charters named ex jpmorgan executive bill winters as the ceo replacing peter sands. As we had to the break, heres a picture of the equity markets. Dead flat. The dax trading north of 11,000 points. We will get a read on the german jobless market. Good morning. In three minutes time we will have german unemployment. In eight minutes time, we have the pulse. We are joined by guy johnson. A very busy show today. In eclectic nix of guests. Mix of guests. Kenny jacobs will come on, the chief Marketing Office for ryanair. Hes coming in, giving us half an hour. We will talk how he repositions europes biggest airline. The lowcost carrier that is ryanair completely changing the buy at their business. That is coming up later. We are also talking to the egyptian investment minister. Normally that would not be something i would highlight, but there are reports coming out of the gulf that egypt is going to build a new cairo. Were going to talk about that. Goldman sachs hell be talking about the bond markets. And the French Economy as well. Bond markets. You and i had a sitdown yesterday and was looking at the german curve. The rally has been insane. This morning, we go to seven years. Who am i to make a call on the . Compared to last year, if we can get another year of that what i want to know is, will the ecb buy negative bonds of germany . How far down the curve will they have to go . You have got to start at 8, 9 or 10 and go all the way down to 30 each already has a yield of 1 which means once they buy the stuff, they are sitting on it forever until it matures. Pretty much. It is an interesting trade. There will have to buy a lot of it and there will be a massive scarcity value factor as well. I think the ecb program of q. E. Is the most complicated one we will see out of any of the Central Banks. The machinations involved and figuring out what you buy, when you buy it on the curve, what the implications are, massive. They are so late to the party. And 30 seconds, we get german unemployment. To bring it back to greece. What was your take away from the interview yesterday . Hes listening. Talking about the fact that the ecb is going to pay him this money which is going to get him over this time. I think they are retrenching a bit. There were all kinds of report yesterday that sereza was having difficult meetings internally. Hes also maybe got to retreat a little bit and let the leaders just kind of corel the troops more. There is a lot going on behind the scenes. Politics the dominant story. The later market is very political german unemployment. The Unemployment Rate comes in at 6. 5 a record low. Unemployment change, dropped by 20,000. The survey, a revision for the previous month. The previous month dropped by 10,000. So unemployment change. That is a positive. The Unemployment Rate at 6. 5 . Lets go to hans nichols. The labor market in germany, why should Angela Merkel change course . Well, that is the argument she is going to be hearing from her members of parliament when they meet tomorrow to vote on greece. This is a positive number. In keeping with what we have seen the last two months. Reason pretty good numbers the last two efo reads have been good. The zed ew was solid earlier this month. We had gdp that came in at 0. 7 . The numbers are consistently good. Not overwhelmingly good, but they are overwhelmed good when you compare unemployment in germany to the eurozone. They are five Percentage Points apart. 6. 5, that was the expectation. But there is that 20,000 jobs that is much better than the 10,000 expected. Overall, a good number. Consistent. That is the take a look. Think you very much. That is almost it for on the move. As we head to the break and the pulse begins in a few moments. Equity markets in london back in the positive. The dax higher by six points. Some big headlines in bond markets with the german 7 year bond yield turning negative. You want to talk about that, i am on twitter. Good luck with the rest of your day. A new banking boss. Stanley chartered names bill winters as ceo. Depending on draghi. Out with the old and in with the new. Egypt is set to reveal a capital a modern capital new city. A bloomberg exclusive. Good morning. You are watching the pulse. I am guy johnson