Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20150218 : comparemela

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20150218

To permeate or contaminate anything around. You have the conversation with george osborne. I sent him a tweet saying fair point, is there a plan b . Are you pushing greece to the liar is the most are you sure pushing greece to the liar is the most sensible option . How much slack is there in the u. K. Economy . Where does mark carney want to take you next in the game of guidance . That is the question. Lets look at the names that are moving markets. Peugeot and carlsberg. Peugeot up 3. 37 . Why so much . The headline numbers missed. Delivering ackley than they have originally. That is the driving factor behind the peugeot story. They delivered a profit for the first time in three years. Carlsberg, again, what youve got here is, no news is good news. Credit agricole we havent found who the new ceo is. In the fourth quarter, 243 Million Euros. That is up 27 Million Euros year on year. Why am i talking about kara stark . About carlsberg . Carlsberg well mr. Anderson is stepping down. He delivered a flat return. Russia will grow. Prices will rise. Has been cut by 30 . Those are your three individual names. Stephen major has had the conversation this morning. Hes calling the bottom in the near term around 1. 6 . Target for hbc, 2. 3 . That would suggest that you might get a slightly higher dollar. Jonathan great work, manus cranny. That is a man who has nailed the treasury market. Equities higher here in london and across europe. Double market charges on. The ftse 100 closed yesterday at a 1999 high. On wall street, the s p 500 that an alltime high. Those headlines in other stories usually prompt discussions on bubbles and debates on whether we will get a sizable correction. Then youve got the bloomberg school. Snapchat said to be raising money that would value the company at 19 billion. It is a disappearing photo and video message app. If that isnt enough to make your head spin, that valuation would make the Company Worth as much as tulloqw morrisons, and royal mail combined. Lets get out the caroline hyde. Tech valuations, that is the story. They just get bigger and bigger. When you compare it to 2013 when facebook was reported to have approached snapchat for 3 billion, last year it was ranked at 10 billion. Now, a valuation of 19 billion. That is bigger than fiat, bigger than publicis. This company is on a tear in terms of valuation as it tries to raise a bit more money. They are looking for half 1 billion to continue to grow. This now ranks it the third biggest Venture Capital backed firm out there at the moment. It is only behind uber the car booking up and a chinese smartphone maker. The third biggest vcbacked company out there. What is pumping up this valuation . Look at how many people are using this. One in three iphone owners in the u. S. Have this app. They are sending 700 million of these disappearing photos and videos are day, jon. Now, we are starting to see how the company visualizes monetizing snapchat. They are showing adverts. Disappearing adverts are starting to be seen that you can opt out of. It is also about content. They have this face that you can get called discover. You can watch content from yahoo , cnn, espn, comedy channel, but they also have their own bespoke channel. It is called the snap channel. They are getting exclusive content. They have literally cant even. It is a comedy. They have the daughters of steven spielberg. White media is releasing some of their inside scoops exclusively to snapchat. And madonna to have her video exclusively on snapchat. This is where the money starts to come in. This is why it is potentially worth a whopping 19 billion. Jonathan lets get the investor take on that. We are joined by james bevan. James, i remember you coming in the morning facebook paid 22 billion for whatsapp. We talked about how crazy this all sounds. Would you invest in Something Like this . Guest i would make two observations. The price tag has been knocked up from a relatively small capital raise. Of few people are able to participate early in the party. They believe they will make a lot of money on such a small sum. The other big issue is trying to understand how these people are going to monetize their brand value, how they create profits for shareholders. Many of us were very surprised how Successful Companies like facebook were. They can drive cash profits from a consumer benefit. Jonathan i made a comparison before we started talking between the valuation of 19 billion, and i could buy tullow oil, morrisons, royal mail, all three companies. If i offered you snapchat, which would you choose . Guest im interested in Free Cash Flow yields rather than hope value. I like the three old players. There is a real possibility that this has a flowing wind. It has a lot of sentiment in its favor. In the near term, there is more momentum. The companies you mentioned all have significant problems. They could do what bt did. Bt turned itself around. It could happen. We could also see real benefits coming through from the oil sector. Tullow could do well. U. K. Retail could do well. Morrison has been a significant underperformer. I dont think those problems are going to clear in the next 12 months. If you said five years, i would go for the three. Jonathan lets talk about valuations. You see the nasdaq back at those 2000 highs, 1999 highs on the ftse, alltime highs on the s p 500. It wasnt so long ago that janet yellen was saying, some of these look stretched. Where are we now . Guest dividend yields still markedly in excess of Government Bond yields. As long as we do not get a selloff in Government Bonds, the valuations make a lot of sense for investors. You might say, thats just all relative. To me, cash raising bond yields remain tethered by centralbank action. I think the deflation story will continue to dominate in the near term. We might even seek you all see qe from the u. S. Side. Maybe the fed might tighten ever so slightly in june. Bank of england, i think it will hold off longer than expected. We know that the central bankers have a lot more to do to get the economies moving again. Jonathan final question, is there a thread running through these stories . When i look at the low bond yields, the potential for spillover into credit, you could have a negative yield you could see a company go to market and issue bonds with a negative yield is there a spillover into valuation . Guest there is. What we are seeing is the absence of Global Demand relative to supply. People say, if you can deliver reasonable prospects and average Profit Growth in a world where there is excess supply, prepare to pay up. Jonathan so much to discuss. James bevan stays with us. Lets check in on certain top stories of the moment. Carlsberg missed estimates this morning. The company are ceo will step down. Much more on that story. More on vivendi also. The company receiving a 3. 9 billion euro offer. The stock climbing as well. Vivendi up 1. 5 . Credit out a call Credit Agricole beating estimates. The stock of 3. 8 . Up next, we are live in brussels for the latest on the greece story. The Company Country reportedly asking for an extension. Details after the break. Does that sound like extend and pretend . Jonathan welcome back. This is bloomberg tv. Stocks are higher this morning. Kicking the can down the road, is that where we are going . Greeces government reportedly set to ask for an extension of it loan agreement. Lets get straight to brussels where hans nichols has been very busy. What is the likelihood of this request getting approved, and secondly, is this request being followed through on . We will know both of those answers in a few hours when we actually see what is in the proposal. If this is just a proposal that is a reheated proposal, then we could have an issue here. The key issue is whether or not there is a request for the actual bailout program, and whether or not they are going to complete that program. As news of this pending request was breaking, mr. Schaeuble spoke to a german broadcaster and here is what he said. He said, it is not about an extension of credit program. It is about whether this program is fulfilled. Yes or no. That is a strong indication, at least mr. Schaeuble wants to see this Current Program fulfilled and he doesnt want to negotiate a longer conversation about a bailout extension or loan extension. Mr. Tsipras in parliament, everything he said contravenes the current ball bailout program. We will have to see when we get the actual proposal. Jonathan as if the confusion isnt enough, theres also reports in the great press that cash reserves could be depleted as early as next week. We dont really know what the firm headline is and when they will run out of money. Well, if the greek state does run out of money, there may be a few tweaks they can do to get through the month. The larger issue is what they do if their banks are cut off from the ecb. Theres going to be a meeting in frankfurt and they are going to be discussing whether to raise or potentially make it harder or easier for greece to access liquidity lines. Two weeks ago, wednesday night we got that announcement that they would no longer be accepting greek debt as collateral. It was a way to force greece back to the negotiating table. We will see what we get tonight. Frankfurt could have more news for us than brussels. Jonathan hans nichols, thank you very much. Lets bring back james bevan. James the plan you just overheard that sounds like a can kicking. Is that the most we can expect . Guest i think that we are seeing brinksmanship and we will have to muddle through. I think that we do see a sixmonth extension and that will become the basis for a behind closed doors conversation. The great Prime Minister really understands this. He is not a hothead. Therefore, hes going to be taken extremely seriously. You have spain, portugal italy all in similar situations. But the hard reality is that 70 of greeks will remain part of the eu. If he is able to cure some benefits of the Greek Economy he will have done a good job. Jonathan lets say he gets to six months. What kind of concessions is greece likely to get when that takes us closer to six months in spain . They will be saying, you know what, we want some of the same . Guest it cannot be a oneway ticket. Greece will have to make material progress in terms of improving efficiency deregulating, driving efficiency. Where all these problems come from is the fact that wages in germany fell. Those in greece went up. We had a 25 competitiveness gap open up. That needs to be reversed. Greece needs to be an economy that can compete. Unless we get a single political if you have a single currency, all the economies have to be able to play at the same level. Jonathan the ecbs role in all this, they are not going to turn off funding are they . Guest everything says qe is going to work. There are so many differences between ecb qe and what the Federal Reserve or bank of japan has done. There is a possibility that the money that is created by the ecb qe goes to pumping up the dollar, placing more global tension and bad news for europe. Jonathan why that news for europe . Guest because the u. S. Is not going to permit a hike in the value of the dollar on a oneway ticket. If it does, the u. S. Economy will falter. One engine of growth that europe has relied on will be extinguished. Jonathan james bevan is going to stay with us. Lets check on shares of carlsberg this morning. The brewer missed estimates this morning. More on that company and on a key metric. We are following through following brewflation. Jonathan welcome back. This is on the move. Im Jonathan Ferro live from london. Carlsberg the rumor, has named a new ceo that will take over in june. He will replace rasmus and after he retired. The brewer also mr. Earnings this morning. Volumes declined this year. They cite russia and ukraine as a major headwind. The stock is up 1. 12 . We are going to bring back james bevan for some final thoughts. Carlsberg, do you like the company . Guest i thought yesterday there were way too many headwinds areas headwinds. The dividend was ahead of expectations. They are doing a better job in asia than i expected. We all knew russia was going to be difficult. Russia has been trying to persuade people not to drink so much. I thought they were posting positive results in a company that is facing significant headwinds. Jonathan are you enthusiastic about this sector . Guest if you said, and i keen on companies and emerging economies, absolutely. There is opportunity to do really well. If you stretch the definition further, i think diageo is something one should have in a portfolio that is focused on solid growth credentials. Jonathan one of the tailwinds has been the talk of consolidation. Is that something you are looking for more of . Guest there are two sorts of consolidations that are effective. One would be about costcutting. Selfhelp through costcutting is a strategy. The other is where you are trying to buy decent quality brands where you think you can add value. In terms of longterm growth, that is much more important. Jonathan i want to look at brewflation u. K. Beer inflation. Beer prices falling. The glass halffull. As you look at the u. K. , and we expect labor market data around 9 30, prices are falling. Fine. Is that largely a good thing . Guest the deflation we are seeing is, i think, good inflation. This is going to be part of what people spend. The deflation we are seeing, i think, encourages people. Jonathan what does this mean for the bank of england . At 9 30, we get the minutes. We already have the bank of england inflation report. Can they really look through inflation . We have a discussion about how this is good, but can you see the bank of england hiking rates . Guest when one thinks about the inflation report, it was clear that there was a reasonable chance inflation could be above or below the 2 target. I think hes going to have a steady as she goes strategy. There appears to be more credit availability. That is critical to getting the economy moving again. Jonathan wage growth, where is it . Unemployment at 5. 8 . We keep saying the wage growth is coming. Guest it is going to clearly be less than 2 . Where is the wage growth coming . It seems to me that it is not coming in the area where people spend more money at the low end. Thats not necessarily good for the economy. Jonathan as an investor, you see the world and you see all these Central Banks easing. You dont see that for the Federal Reserve and in the u. K. What makes those Central Banks different . Guest first off, the u. S. Went very early, allowed the Housing Market to crash, addressed those challenges, and created a significant fiscal stimulus. That was very supportive. The u. K. Went very early to devalue the pound and allow export growth to come through. The bank of japan was really very slow. We do not have the third leg of abenomics. We do not have corporate reform. Real recovery of japan does require that to be in place. Jonathan james and i waiting patiently. James bevan, thank you very much for joining me this morning. Kicking the can down the road. James says no. Other people say yes. Greece reportedly asking for a sixmonth extension of its loan agreement. We will see how the greek market takes that. Stocks in London Trading a little bit higher. Jonathan welcome back. This is on the move. We are 30 minutes into the trading day in europe. The ftse 100 up 0. 2 . The dax climbing higher. The ftse 100 is just 18 points short of an alltime high. Right now, we sit at the highest level since 1999 and we come off the back of the u. S. Close that finished with the s p 500 through 2100 points. Alltime highs in the u. S. Will we see that today in london . The asc in athens opening up. A lot of people expecting a nice left the greek equities. Greece may well make a request for a loan extension. Lets get our top stories with caroline hyde. The oneday we are starting to see a downward trend in oil prices, weve got some enthusiasm being shown for the oil stocks today. Technip technip trading up almost 5 . This is a french oil engineer. They are saying revenue profit, growth in 2015. That is despite the huge dropoff in oil prices over the past six months or so. They say, overall, their 21 billion euro backlog is giving them clear guidance. They say revenue profit is going higher. People liking the news from another company, eni. Reported a 64 decline in net income, but analysts say the reason for that is a higher tax rate. Some of their assets are losing value. But actually, the numbers show some positivity here. They are saying there is a beat in overall profitability because congo and angola startups are looking good. Eni, despite the fact that you may not think it looks good, overall, it is on the positive side. I will bring you the swedish a little later. Here, trading down 2 . Even though sales rose 11 earnings per share rose 3 , it was all below analyst estimates for this swedish stock. They say faster growth of value priced goods they are saying the absence of price increases in 2014, means it has been a problematic time for them. Jonathan great work, caroline. Heres a company to watch this morning. A geneva prosecutor is searching hsbc offices. Hsbc under investigation. A geneva prosecutor opened a moneylaundering probe. More of those details when we have it. For now, equity markets in greece just opening upt area opening up. The ease just a little higher. Equities higher in greece up by 0. 4 . You do see yields on the threeyear note down by 93 basis points. Still, the yield, 17. 62 . There is a little tension in greece. The greeks might request a sixmonth extension of their loan agreement. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras intends to make the requested a. For the latest from greece, lets welcome the head of european rates and economics research. Great to have you with us. Guest good morning. Jonathan it feels like spend and pretend, the kind of thing the greeks said they wouldnt do. What is that about . Guest i think we have to recognize, we have to look underneath. If they ask just for extension of the loan facilities, but not an extension for the counter arguments that come with it what good is that . We have been here before. There was a lot of back and forth. We have to see what the ultimate result of this can be. Jonathan lets Start Talking about the actual debt. Debt to gdp is one number.

© 2025 Vimarsana