Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20141205

They revised september to the highest and leaving germany to a dire situation as we previously expected. What is everyone expecting . What the ecb is really doing and yesterday was such disappointment, draghi not bringing ahead the stimulus that had been wanted. Saying putting it off until these january two reassess the situation as to whether we need fullblown quantitative easing. Many feel he is just trying to get his ducks in a row and convince the rest that this is the course of action necessary. 1. 5 . Up more than clearly a lot of appetites out there. We are seeing the euro pretty much trading while flat. Oil continuing to trade lower at the moment. A full day of the klein on oil. Of course that continues to put pressure on prices. Lets have a look at the market for you. Maybe a little bit of arise in yields for the 10 year. Appetite to buy into debt by three basis points and spain as well. Appetite for risk once again being shown and bond buying. Also of course is this really being shown. That would mean well start to see more bonds being brought by the ecb. Balfour beatty up almost 1 , they reject that approach. One billion pounds not good enough for the ppp assets. They say leave it to us if we complete each asset we will get far more money and it is about synergies. The question is will john lang Infrastructure Fund come back with a better offer . Reassessingy are the portfolio value. They are stellar profits and sales. Up 55 and they say the return to normal Market Conditions that are on track to pay their dividend and they say please just keep things steady. Yearve an election next and where concern about any uncertainty and we need property taxes intent, nudge nudge toint, nudge nudge stay where they are at the moment. A lot of people batting away potential wooers in the property sector. They do not want the money coming from qatar they say the Qatar Investment authority offered 2. 6 billion pounds but not enough. They won 381 pence at least. That is the market opener and 39 looking at a high of points in the dax up by almost 90 points. 0. 9 higher this morning. But get back to the ecb. Investors may be a little bit disappointed with mario draghi because he did not announce sovereign qe yesterday. Another voice says that if draghi does announce wanted of easing in january it is not enough. In my view they will start doing qe by january or february of next year but it will be too little too late. They should increase the Balance Sheet and i feel they will increase it over two years and that is not sufficient. And as mario pointed out in his speech, qe work in the u. S. And backloadede you had Fiscal Consolidation and in the eurozone you have frontloaded. In the case of japan the first round was monetary and fiscal. You need to have fiscal stimulus and the eurozone in addition to monetary. If you just have monetary it will not be enough. On both counts the eurozone will come too little too late. And breathe. A classic rant. Were joined now by Richard Jeffrey the chief Investment Officer or he helped us to see 30 billion pounds in assets. Too little too late even if we get an q1 . Or is it the answer . The ecbthe problem for is that they are not convinced that quantitative easing will be as effective as it appears in other places. Other people would dispute how effective it was in the u. K. For instance. I think the issue for the eurozone is not so much whether quantitative easing would work it is the impact of the euro on the zone itself and i think the deflationary trends we are seeing and parts of the eurozone particularly the southern eurozone are more to do with the euro and less with the conditions by the ecb. Its a debate certainly worth having a foreign investor a really outcome does not matter, maybe it is just what they are going to buy and what it means for asset prices. And in that context you see a story like is that it would to centralbank members of the ecb fate you something under consideration for january, qe is coming, is it just bye bye off the back of it . Asset markets like injections of liquidity that for the inflation comes it shows through asset prices. Others in germany are concerned about the inflationary consequences of quantitative easing. When you look at the ecb to question the credibility you see him downgrade their forecast for inflation . Two weeks ago said they need to soak Inflation Expectations and what fast and . And then turnaround and said we will reassess next year . Broughtmight have quantitative easing at an earlier stage that would lead a looking at distinctly different Growth Prospect that were the case. Clear that individual countries have very specific problems and a lot of them will not be solved by monetary policy, the saga markets. Your negative on bonds, from a valuation perspective why . It is a fundamental valuation basis, if you look at german 10 year bond selling on the yield of well below 1 that is discounting virtually no nominal growth over an exceptionally long. So in a sense those on markets brought forward all the good news that they expect to see from quantitative easing and doubled up on that. I think it is difficult to see an investment in european zone bonds rewarding the investor more than an investment in equities. Looking at the 10 year spanish yields how it 1. 5 , why cannot they go lower . Euro shortterm returns and shortterm gains and exceptionally tight margins and some of the original peripheral markets compared to the German Market but is that rewarding sufficiently for the additional risk . Still very difficult issues that have to be addressed and structural issues that have to be addressed in those economies. I dont think there is a sufficient risk premium. What is the risk . Has Mario Draghi Anna stte the risk with his commitment or is that a has mario draghi banished the risk with his commitment or is that a false security . There are risks around government finances and risks in Financial Markets with the biggest risk of course that the eurozone is facing is that it any decenttch recovery and we saw the at bundesbank this morning which is brought down growth estimates for this year and theyre forecasting only 1 growth next year and that is down from a 2 forecast. That is the big risk that we do see this. In the eurozone. We have to wrap up this conversation and talk about payrolls. The big jobs number is 230000 and unemployment expected to remain at 5. 8 , is it a similar isntto hear in the u. K. The wage growth that will be a concern for the fed . I think it probably is a concern if it were to remain at this level but i do not think it will. I think there are signs that they are tightening in the labor market in the United States and it is pushing up wage costs. The question is how does the fed react to that. Allow wagebably growth to pick up somewhat and i think it will be clicked key in its reaction function in the second quarter. You can see the wage growth picking up progressively and that will prompt the first tightening in the u. S. Policy. The numbers come out in a few ands time, when i sit down look at the jobs report what is the number youre looking for . Headlinesys look at first. We look at the number for total payroll growth and the numbers below the surface and see where that has been generated. Tone and overall regardless of todays figures the tone of the market is quite strong and the u. S. Economy has gained momentum in the second half of the year and prospects of growth next year are reasonable. The u. S. Has the greatest potential. Richard jeffrey, thank you for much for joining us. The bring you our exclusive interview with the rio tinto ceo. What is standing in the way of the megamerger that could make the worlds biggest Mining Company . As we had to the break here is a picture of the markets as we speak. Are in mainland europe. The happy talk about the potential that we may get an ecb bond buying planned next year. We will be back in two minutes. Welcome back, lets get to our exclusive interview with the chief executive of rio tinto. 2014 is been a to mulch was year for many miners including rio tinto. Oversupply of iron ore has sent prices to their lowest since 2009. Over the past five years and economic slowdown in china has forced several miters to cut costs and adjust targets and some investors think the bleak picture makes rio right for a takeover. Says advances by others, namely glencore will not affect his plan to get more cash back to investors. Glencore cannot bid again until april under ceo under takeover deals. At the end of the day it will be a decision for the board and not me personally but clearly when you consider this, there will be a whole raft of things that you look at in terms of how business our business and their business. . You think they come back in april . I have no idea. Thats a question for tony hayward enough for me. A you are a man who likes plan forward, are you planning for that event . Are you putting business on a footing were needs to think about this as a possibility . The most important thing is we have a strategy and a game plan for how we run the business. Stick totance that we that game plan and do not get distracted or deviate or do some thing silly because we notice somebody hollering from the grandstand. That is not the way to run a business. Boardonfident as is our that our strategy to deliver Business Improvement and our strategy to deliver growth and to materially increase shareholder returns is in the very best interest of shareholders. Joining us to talk of up this topic is a man that knows something about mines, Bloomberg News jesse and the guy in front of sam walsh, guy johnson. Is this a man that was to do a deal . No. Clearly not a man who was to do a deal. I think he is dressing it up in a number of different ways. He says it will come down to value if they come back in april that he also does not feel these businesses are a good fit. Hes trying to come up with a number of arguments that fit together. Shareholder stick with us we have a longterm plan to deliver you strong returns that putting these businesses together does not make sense from a cultural point. Even if they do step up they will not get a good deal. We could talk about the clash of culture all day and sometimes that exists everywhere and does not make sense. From Glenn Burke Glencore his is yes we are a trading firm but yes thats why we want real and thats why it makes sense. Isnt that why . Theres a strong case that by combining the businesses they can user training expertise around the world to make a dollar a ton for iron ore. With 360 million tons per year that is a lot of money. Consideredat the message theyre putting out there they want to highlight the cultural differences is a key hurdle but sam walsh says at the end of the day it is going to be driven by value and what theyre saying essentially is that if you want to buy us you have to pay up and we do healthy premium to overcome these issues. The guy glencore is saying look at the price of iron ore and where it is heading, shareholders in rio, if you want value out of these mines, we are the guys to deliver that value. Sam walshs argument will be that this is a cyclical is this you do not ingest invest or the shortterm but the longterm and these prices will come back. We have been in this business for over 100 years and we know about cyclicality. Wave and at some point youll see lower prices and higher prices. If you want to invest dont do it for one year but 10 years. Youve met him, you know the man, he would take offense at being called a shortterm investor . Would, he hasly been in this industry for 30 that and it is fair to say in 1974 mark rich founded marc rich and coin the early 90s and it is a fundamentally different approach but at the they have a relationship with customers and clients and have driven a lot of business based on those relationships. Just wrap this up this sounds like an addition for a clash in the spring of next year and they are talking up a clash of culture and sam walsh saying were better alone and glastonbury saying were better together, mr. Glastonbury gets what he wants, will that be a pretty high price tag . Jesse is able to answer this better than i am, is he able to afford it . Can he paid a high price that sam walsh wants . I would do a deal but at a in an premium and industry that is plagued by overcapacity and low prices, can mr. Hayward and mr. Glows and berg say we will pay you these premiums, i dont know. Takeoveral invented a from bp in 2008 and two dozen nine with a 40 premium so that give you a guide to what they are expecting. It may not be that high but i cannot see any scenario where glencore would pay that premium. Missile be a big story next year as well. We would back in two. Welcome back to on the move. Thanks but no thanks that seems to be the response from the owner of Canary Wharf Group this morning, both announced approaches for their assets are too low, here is more with caroline hyde. I was start with balfour beatty. In august they value one of their units at one billion pounds and four months later someone comes along and says ok heres one billion pounds and they say, know you wanted now, that means you significantly undervalue the value of something we valued at the same value i am lost. Or they are playing hard to get, its like a game of comehither. June 1. 0 5ht back in billion was how much they valued. Their ppp, is infrastructure and hospitals. Along comes john lang and they say we will give you 1 billion and they say no thanks actually because of the current market and because of our knowhow which has not been vindicated that much the cause of our knowhow we should pursue these assets to fruition so weve actually built that hospital and then we sell off the asset we will get more bang for our buck. They do seem to think that because of the recent sale of assets they just sold their u. S. Unit for a premium they think it is time to reassess the value of this particular share. That they think the market has turned for the better when a lot of economists would say things have flattened down and some have say some would say it has turned down. Songbird whicht owns Canary Wharf Group feel that not enough money is on the table for their effect either so 2. 6 billion pounds is how much the Qatar Investment authority have put up saying this is what we will offer you for this particular asset. As no to say it comes surprise that they turned it down, they are advising their shareholders not to go at the deal because in november they said we think it is 381 pence per share which is . 90 above where the qataris are offering. They already made clear that they wanted more for this asset. I was down in canary wharf looking at the miniature models they have and i do think they want this asset and what more types of business there. See that theres going to be a bit more growth so 2. 6 billion, no thanks. Playing hard to get these corporate relationships are so complex. Ozi, membererk that . Said to have abandoned Nicolas Sarkozy. More on that story after the break. Back. Come im Jonathan Ferro at bloombergs European Headquarters in london. A nice little push higher this morning. Ftse 100 up by 40 points. The dax moves higher by over one per by over 100 points. Ecb stimulus in january. We will talk about that and more. Now, three stocks to watch with caroline hyde. One of the german stocks popping higher this morning, positive news coming from the german factory orders this morning. Positive news coming from Goldman Sachs for this stock, united internet. Currently up almost 4 . This stock. , buy it is an Internet Provider in germany and they say the market share can continue to grow. Strong volume growth on smartphone use in germany. Pete an eye on united internet. Keep an eye on the Property Market in the united kingdom. Having had the news on stamp duty overhaul, Berkley Group up almost 4 . 55 uptick in profit. Their first half looks strong. They say there is a returning to normal market in the u. K. With good underlying demand. Please, keep things consistent. They are worried about uncertainty after the elections. To seest want consistency, particularly when it comes to property tax. Beatty, british builder, the biggest british builder. Once again, just batting their hand away from any approaches. They say, look, it is worth more than one billion pounds even though that is what we valued it at ourselves. They are going back to their mathematics. They think it could be that much higher. Maybe on approach from john lang. Shares up 1. 3 . Thanks very much, caroline. Lets get some top stories for you. German factory orders rose more than forecast in october. A full 2 more than analyst estimates. Small signs that europes largest economy is continuing to recover from that missed year. The bundesbank cut its growth and inflation targets for germany through 2016. Investors await the jobs numbers out of the United States which will cross at 8 30 eastern time. The u. S. Economy is estimated to have added 230,000 jobs in november according to a Bloomberg Economist survey. The rain expected to hold at 5. 8 . France at 49. 99 stake in its toulouse airport. Frances finance minister, the group will pay more than 300 Million Euros for the stake. Lhe government plans to sel 10 billion euros in state assets. France, as the state is selling assets to raise funds, French Business leaders are tired of criticism of an economy that has barely grown in the last two years. The Largest Companies have organized a forum to fight back. The paris banking on france conference is aimed at showcasing the friends the strength of the secondlargest economy. Era linktone on is there. What have you learned this morning . Good morning. This conference is all about boosting the image of france. The French Economy has barely grown in three years. Gdp is expected to rise just 0. 4 this year. The perception outside the country has been pretty negative. You remember the comments from the ceo, saying that france was finished. The economy minister opened the conference here yesterday. He said the problem with france is that we are afraid of change. I ask him in my talks what we need and what the entrepreneurs need in order to grow their business. Have a listen. They dont need anything. They have everything they want. They are entrepreneurs, precisely. We just have to help them. For sure. Minister ismy introducing new activity law in the next few days. That is supposed to be the big reform of the second half of president ollantas term. That will include president hollandes term. That will include more on sunday. It could also include some deregulation of pharmacies, dentists, legal professions, all of that, trying to reform france and boost the labor market. I see you talking to politicians and ceos as well. What kind of innovation are you seeing . As a symbol, this conference is being held in the grand palace, which is this massive iron and Glass Building that was built for the 1900 universal exhibition in paris. You have 200 startups here showcasing their latest innovations. Airbus, new desks thate, some are completely digital. All these innovations brought by young entrepreneurs here in france. , whoked to the orange ceo told me he launched a new firm to helpal these entrepreneurs grow. Areas where young entrepreneurs from france can be very successful. They need of course to be a company, they need to be financed. We need more venture capital. Of the more involvement big companies, including orange, in order to help them to grow and access the markets. All these initiatives are very good for the image of france, but the facts are there, the economy here is barely growing. The eu commission, as you know, has given france another three months to fix their budget. The deficit is still expected to be above 4 next year. Thanks very much, caroline. We are going to talk about france more. Angela merkel is no longer cozy with sarkozy. That is according to people familiar with their friendship. Angela merkels party has reportedly blocked Nikolai Sarkozy from addressing its annual convention. Lets head to berlin for more from hans nichols. What is behind this little soap opera . It is protocol, perhaps there is a real chill. Back in november, the finance minister said he looks forward to inviting Nicolas Sarkozy, to welcoming Nicolas Sarkozy at this Party Conference in cologne. Now what we know according to people familiar with the matter is that sarkozys representative has always been invited but it was made very clear, crystalclear, that sarkozy himself could not take the stage and could not address the audience. Sarkozy we know is that will not be attending this Party Conference. It is a twoday Party Conference in cologne. A spokesman for sarkozy is saying it is merely a scheduling conflict. He needs to meet senators back in rome. Support sarkozy in 2012 against francois hollande. He has an won the Party Nomination yet. Merkel congratulated him. Really hard to figure out where merkel and sarkozy stand. It is very hard. You listen to the rumors and it sounds like she is not going to support his next bid if he does run for the president of france. Does merkel have a candidate she would like to support for a challenge to how long . To hollande . The foreign in sarkozys last government. That is their preferred candidate for the senate right party. For that person to take on potentially sarkozy, then take on if not francois hollande, whoever the Number Two Party is. Is quietly,e merkel privately, hinting that the next residential candidate should not be sarkozy. I think we have a few more chapters to play out. Hans nichols, you thought d. C. Was interesting. European politics, no end to the stories. After the break, we are going to talk gold. Northern ireland. We speak to a canadian Mining Company that has the mineral rights to more than 80,000 hectares in the region. We will bring that interview after the break. Welcome back. This is on the move. Time to talk about goldmining. A canadian Mining Company began trading on londons market this week. This comes as Northern Ireland may become a source of gold. Joining us for moore is patrick anderson. Fascinated by this. We are going to start with a simple one, the gold price. We are at 2000, 1200 right now. Why is now a good time to be looking at bringing a new mine online . What we have done around the world is identify highmargin gold. Arehis case, these highgrade ounces. The margins are very good. 800 gold, this is a project we are looking to build. Im not going to ask you about the direction of gold. Im fascinated that Northern Ireland could be a cheap source of gold. Stack it up against other areas of the world. Youve got infrastructure in place so your Capital Expenditure is going to be a lot less. You have an educated workforce. More in particularly, you have a government that wants to have you there. You have an economy that needs new sources of primary wealth generation. Your bottom line, 800 an ounce to make this viable . 800. What does that compare against some of the big miners in africa . The industry average is about 1200. If i look at this mind going online by 2016, 2017 . We are in the prefeasibility stage. We are going underground in the coming weeks to carry on a program of tunneling and drilling to beef up our resources. Basically an option study to figure out the best ways to exploit this resource and bring that gold to market. Before youve taken a single ounce out of the ground, how much money will dalradian have to put into this . At least another 250 million canadian dollars. We have put nearly 35 Million Pounds into drilling and engineering studies so far. We have moved the resource from about half a million ounces when we acquired the assets to more than 3. 5 billion highgrade ounces so far. We are now in the stage of going through prefeasibility studies. Northern ireland, we talked about it a little bit, how big could this be for Northern Ireland . Talk to me about how big the Mining Industry for gold could be in this area of the world. This sort of deposit is miso thermal deposit. Canada, these sorts of deposits have been going on for generations. Like in kirkton lake, these deposits are quite large. We expect that to advance, to continue. Where is the skills base going to come from . With are working right now local colleges and the government to set up Training Centers and courses. Setting up as center of excellence for a new underground Mining Industry in Northern Ireland. Are you going to let me visit . Absolutely. Patrick anderson, ceo of dalradian resources. The pulse is coming up at the top of the hour. It is guy johnson. He joins us now. What have you got . We will carry on doing that but we are also back to this event in paris. France, paris, french industry wants its mojo back. Frenchgoing to talk to a socialist from the hollow on government, to get her take on the story. We are also talking to the ceo of havas to get a take on business. We have to get on with this. How does france change its culture. How does france that is the question we are going to be asking. Guy johnson, looking forward to it. Still to come, ecb stimulus. The European Central bank expects to consider a bond buying proposal as early as january. We will bring you the story in two minutes time. Lets welcome back. Were going to get you up to sleep with him families on the move. Ondhas another mortgage b leader on leave. The trader has worked for jpmorgan since 2008 after being employed with bear stearns. Airlines have said travel agents sold some of the companys Business Class tickets at economy seat prices. The airline says it is down to travel agents selling the tickets using a booking class that was originally designated for economy seats. Singapore air says it is working with travel agents to recover the difference in fares. A company says it has completed on another round of funding which valued the company by 40 billion. The car booking service raised 1. 2 billion to boost expansion as it faces legal hurdles. Be close too approving a 9. 2 billion offer for its portuguese assets from altice. Close to company came approving the deal in a Board Meeting yesterday. The decision could be announced as soon as today. Lets get back to the big news. Investors may be disappointed after mario draghi did not initiate fullfledged sovereign qe but the ecb president did make it clear that something is brewing. Something that could be implemented in a timely manner. What does it mean for the markets . Lets ask david powell. Good to have you with me. He gets points for mentioning qe. The ecb was a little bit light. You put the rumor out there, you spend time talking about it, we are at the talking stage. Signaledk what he yesterday is that qe is definitely going to calm, it is just a matter of timing. , investors will continue to sell the euro and push down sovereign yields in expectation of that move. Thee are seeing it in markets. Italian bond yields at record lows, below 2 , the euro, 1. 23. We have seen that move lower. When i listened to that press conference yesterday, when he said, we dont need the decision to be unanimous, it doesnt sound like it is just jens qe. Mann that is against it is probably a bit larger group. If it were just jens weidmann, his comments would have pushed a vote. Six who about five or are opposed to sovereign qe at this stage. That perhaps is too many people opposed for draghis comfort. He is trying to build more consensus. For anyone that watched yesterday, they would have said, youve downgraded your inflation forecast, you said three weeks ago you are going to stoke Inflation Expectations. Then there is this element of patients. What are they reassessing . Whether to do qe or not . Are we at the stage where they dont know what assets to buy . I think in draghis mind, he brought up the examples during the press conference of the u. K. And u. S. Where it has worked and been effective. It is a question of him convincing the members of the council that it is necessary. You mentioned the u. S. Jobs number of little bit later. More than 200,000 is the estimate. Compared that to europe, night and day. Look at the difference between unemployment in the u. S. And the eurozone, that sums up what draghi said yesterday. The eurozone is stock behind many of the larger economies of the west. David powell, thank you for joining us this morning. Stay with bloomberg tv. The pulse is next. A bloomberg exclusive with karine berger. She is a french mp joining us from paris. Look out for that. Here is a picture of the markets. Equity markets seeing a decent pop this market. The ftse 100 up by 0. 1 . The sizable gains are in mainland europe. The cac 40, the dax up. Up 1. 7 . Mib in italy the gains are not just in the equity markets, they are in the bond markets as well. Italian bond yields, record lows. Prices moving higher. Speculation building for the ecb to pull the trigger on qe in january of next year. That is the story. The story today is u. S. Payrolls. Nonfarm payrolls expected to come in at 200 30,000 jobs added to the u. S. Economy last month. Eurodollar, lets have a quick check in. 1. 2370 is where i saw it. That is close to 2012 lows. We have seen a significant move lower. Dollar strength has been the story. If you want to talk markets, you can follow me on twitter. That is it for on the move. The pulse is up next. Good luck for the rest of your day. Have an amazing weekend. Fed up, frustrated, and fighting back. With french unemployment back at record levels, Business Leaders gather in paris to deliver a positive message. You to that gathering. A clash of cultures. Rio tinto tells bloomberg that a deal with glencore would be a bad fit. And, online over the bottom line. A bloomberg interview with Facebook Ceo Mark Zuckerberg on why getting people connected is more important than profit