That worse . Stay tuned. That is what we are watching today here on the move. European markets have opened lower. Stoxxeins for the euro 50, the ftse, the dax and the cac 40. Lets check in with manus at the touchscreen. We are going to see a little bit of a drop. Losingflicking around, about an eighth of a value. Where weh more about are in terms of reports. Carlsberg cutting their outlook. Heineken, things are going well. It is about the bank of england, the Federal Reserve. Go into the u. K. And have a look. Diageo coming lower on the first trade. Glencore does it again. Overall numbers beat real. Glencore came out this morning. , 2. 01 billion. The super cycle of commodities is not over. Where we are with rio and balaton. Iron ore will not peak in terms of supply and 2017. We had a great interview with holgate. His view, Ivan Glasenberg is the only man who knows what is happening in the mining industry. That is perhaps disingenuous to other ceos. Are doing whatey the market wants, giving cashback. Glencore also saying they will revisit potentially looking at buybacks. Nevertheless, the ftse down. Glencore and the miners bucking the overall trend. When you think of the difference in the story, heineken is in the emerging market trade. Carlsberg that the house on russia. They are paying for it at the moment. Heineken up 6. 2 . They have said they are growing market share. Russia is an issue but they are absolutely convinced about the rest of the year. On the other hand, you have carlsberg. They are cutting their fullyear outlook. Eastern europe is increasingly challenging. Really, punished this morning in. Erms of that geographic trade lack of diversification is killing that stock this morning. Ooh, now you see what happens. That is it. That is the moment that technology kills me. Thanks, manus. That is the open. Joining us now, jerry fowler. He is the global head of equity derivatives strategy at bnp paribas. What is the big theme for you right now . What is driving these equity markets . At the moment, we are still stuck in this environment which is part of the reason why both bonds and equities are rallying in many markets. As the output gap closes in the u. S. And we move, you may start to see some different risk factors like exposure to real growth in the u. S. Really, it is about identifying where we are in the cycle. You say that we are in the mid cycle but there could be a couple years left of this business cycle. When you are in the mid cycle, you dont tend to see contraction. This big debate, when is the s p going to fall by more than 10 , we could have to wait a little bit further. It would be very hard for the economy to turn down when consumers arent spending rampantly, business arent spending rampantly and governments arent spending rampantly. Ae only way to get significant downturn is a policy mistake. I the fed going to tighten too early . We have s months to wait for that. It seems like the possibility of a significant equity downturn is remote. That is not to say you dont get pullbacks. Normally they are driven by specific events. We saw that in small ps and biotech. We have seen it to some extent in highyield credit. Those are warning signs. The decline in highyield credit, pimco especially said, those bonds that is cherry picking. They provided a good buying opportunity. They have provided a lot of positive returns. They were highyielding to some extent. Also, because of the contraction in yields. There was a lot of performance. When you get a fleshing out in the mid cycle of overcrowded positioning, we are expecting that corner of the market, the high yields, perhaps that is a turning point. You can still generate the carry promoting those bonds. Does is produces a broader risk across all asset that is temporary. Everything bounces back except the thing where liquidity was flushed out. Stay there. Vestas reported earnings earlier , upgrading its margin forecast. Profit rose for the third time. Anders runevad. Thanks for joining us today. Good morning. You have raised your fullyear profit outlook. You say you will achieve a margin outlook, a minimum of 6 versus a minimum of 5 . What is behind the raising of your outlook today . Development. Good we increased in the quarter year on year. We see our work with improving our core space is paying off. It is a combination of a number of different cycles that led us to increase our outlook for the full year. You have been at the job almost a year. You have had a couple of turbulent years as a company. This is your third consecutive net profit. Before that, you had nine consecutive net losses. Do you see stability now . Do you think vestas has turned a corner . Definitely is financially very stable today. As you compare with a year back, we see improvements in all areas. We see improvements in revenue growth, but especially on the earnings side. Ago, we had 780 Million Euros and today we have 440 Million Euros. Financially, much more stable company, a company that is growing and a company with stability. Lets talk about some of the regions, starting with the United States. What is the prospect there at present . What will happen when this production tax credit, what will happen if it isnt brought back . See a draw inwe the u. S. 40 of the quarter came from the u. S. E see good growth cycles will go up until probably somewhere 2015, beginning of 2016. Do you think we are going to get a decision soon . When do you think we are going to get a decision on whether to bring the ptc back . That is a political decision. Experts in that field expect a decision at the end of this year or next year. Anders, what is happening in europe, your major historical european markets . The u. K. , germany, spain, france and italy. Are you worried about this backlash against wind and renewable subsidies in europe . We actually see a development is verye but it different in different countries. It is a big region for us. We see development from markets like germany, france, u. K. In partsee stagnation of europe. We see fairly limited activity. Europe hasall been stable for us. As i said, germany for example is stable. A stable market when it comes to wind. We are working on lowering the cost of energy for wind. That is one of our main strategic directives. We are getting more and more competitive while the alternatives get more and more expensive. That even ific subsidies are taken down over will try too increase competitiveness. Anders, what is your exposure to russia or ukraine . Are there any spillovers from what is happening in ukraine and the implementation of sanctions and a ban on food and what could amount to more eventually from russia . Are you feeling any of that . No. We are not. We dont have product in russia. We have a few projects in ukraine. Andre going ahead with them there is a lot of interest in ukraine. But we dont have any projects in russia purely get in russia. Just want to finish with australia. The government is reviewing its Renewable Energy targets. It has named a skeptic of manmade global warming. You know his name. He is leading this review. How is this going to affect the scottish market for you . How is this going to affect vestas . Australia,comes to they are in a review process. We will see what the decision will be. There is a lot of investment in the market. Obviously great support from the general public for Renewable Energy. We see that all over the world. Weas the implications dont see much activity. Important to have a stable policy, longterm policy, a policy that attracts investment into the market. We hope that the decision will go that way. Good to chat to you. Vestas ceo Anders Runevad speaking to us from denmark. Shares are up today. They raise their profit outlook and earnings beat estimates. Lets bring you up to speed with some of the companies on the move today. 300 Million Dollars for failing to flag suspicious transactions. The bank had promised to report transactions as part of a settlement in 2012. According to a settlement statement from regulators, the bank didnt spot potentially highrisk transactions because of faulty antimoney laundering controls. Glencore has announced a Share Buyback of up to 1 billion over the next six months. The mining giant also announced profit that these estimates. Bloomberg News Reporter jesse spoke to glencores ceo and joins us this hour for more on those results. Software to analyze and improve performance of players as part of a threeyear deal. The deal is a matchup of germanys Biggest Tech Company and the champion team. To help players fitness will be a focus of the threeyear deal. Still with us for his perspective is gerry fowler. Who is right . The bond markets are the equity markets . I think it is possible they are both right. It surprised a lot of people that u. S. Yields contracted to the level they are at. To some extent, that is because of the global search for yield where you have german bonds trading under 1 recently. When you look at relative value, u. S. Treasury stocks, you have differing monetary policies. This is different from a few years ago. We have differing policies in different regions. The ecb may be making a policy mistake. When will they remedy that . This is the big question. Bnp has had a view that there was policy easing. There is no broad asset purchase program, which is one of the main drivers of potentially weak currency which would help with the inflation side of things. That we probably need to wait until next year for the ecb to be pressured to do something more. Meanwhile the bank of england minutes today. Should, could, maybe. 2 a point to a dissent or two. Does the market perceive it as a policy mistake or a response to improving growth . That could be quite telling to how the market responds to u. S. Rate hikes next year. One of your questions you are posing, where you see uncertainty in the markets, how do the credit cycles turn . The credit cycle turning is a slow phenomenon. It usually occurs before the equity market. We have had such strong bond performance. Now we have had that fairly significant burst of volatility in the highyield market, particularly where we know banks cant provide liquidity. Something like 12 billion of outflow in a matter of weeks. Much like the small caps in the u. S. , i dont think that money rushes back in. When it comes to credit cycle turning, yes, that was a key point in the cycle where parts of the credit market are now saying the covenants are too like. The risk is becoming too much. We may start seeing underperformance from those types of assets. Indices may be going through investment grades next year. What is the ideal portfolio . It is very important to get the implementation right. No matter where you look, returns are likely to be low. My portfolio would invest some leverage to equity upside, which already gives you Risk Management to the downside. You can absorb some Downside Risks by selling downside on the s p. Risks of a significant downturn are limited in the next year or two. You need to generate some carried to pay for that premium. You are getting a benefit of Risk Management. You can pay with that with a emergingmarket currency bond exposure. And potentially some improving carry trades like being you long dollars and short yen. Well put. Thanks. Gerry fowler, global head of equity derivatives at bnp paribas. Forext, trouble is brewing carlsberg as russias biggest beer maker cut its outlook. More on the profit outlook and profit leak after the break. This is on the move here in london. Brewers be where. Reported earnings today, cutting its fullyear profit outlook. Difficulties mounting in russia. Heineken sees moderate growth in the latter half of the year. Hans nichols has been pouring over the beer. What does this tell us about the Global Economy . It is not as frothy as maybe some economists would want it to be. It is a clear barometer. A third of their profits come from russia. It is a clear barometer that and simmers are spending less in russia. We had that profit warning from adidas, now from carlsberg. Stock is down some 5 . Heineken, they had a good first half of the year. Here is what carlsberg did. They lowered their profit expectations to lower than midsingle digits. Before it was looking for an increase of made to high single digits. Quite a swing. It is not all just the macroeconomy in russia. Carlsberg is losing market share inside of russia. Heineken, their sales were basically flat. But they are increasing market share. Here is what the ceo had to say. Obviously, world cup helps and good weather helps too. The most important is that we are winning market share everywhere, in every single country in europe. Rate has been booming at 7 of our revenues. We are doing fine and strong. Beer, theough it is expectation was in the 1. 3 range. It cleared. Lets talk hops and ales and bloggers. And Manchester United of course. Managerer uniteds new was the manager of the Dutch National team, which reached the semifinals of the world cup. Was there a world cup effect or not . Clearly, there wasnt a Manchester United affect. If Manchester United fans were carlsberg consumers, you would see sales way up because they would be drinking their losses, drowning in tears after your miserable season. There was a little bit of affect with the warm weather. Note, because easter was later in the year, you saw an uptick in sales. We will look for that next year. Just in case you didnt know, yes, last season was bad. This season has started badly as well. We lost our first game. There is more ammunition for you when you need it. And hopefully more beer for you. There is always more beer. Angola. From reversed the builders, Balfour Beatty rejecting carillions offer to merge yet again. Here with more on the deal is caroline heidi. What is going on . Risk. Risks, risks, risks. The main one that keeps on coming back to the table is the u. S. Unit. Balfour beatty has a u. S. Unit it is trying to sell. It says it is close to doing so for 700 Million Pounds. That is parsons. It is an infrastructure consultancy other in the u. S. It is going to use 200 Million Pounds to give back to shareholders. For five years they have had this assets. It has never given any synergy. Karelian who wants to merge with , they want to keep this u. S. Asset. They want to keep this prize u. S. Asset. That is what is putting off Balfour Beatty. Balfour beatty also throws in another risk. It says, you are looking at scaling back the u. K. Construction arm. We become this juggernaut with 3 billion pounds worth of sales. U. K. O that when the Construction Market is going great . They say it is the time to be in there. Dont exit. That is another risk. Balfour beatty is having a terrible run of it. The chief executive step down because of several profit warnings. They struggled to revive themselves after the financial crisis. They had to retrench in australia. They took their eye off the ball in the u. K. Just as the Construction Market got back up and hungry. They have managed to post a profit decrease to the tune of more than 50 . Will Balfour Beatty be better on its own . We have to question it. Will they go hostile . That is the big question now. Still to come, a Nobel Laureate joins us for an exclusive conversation. Stay with us. On the move continues in two. Welcome back. I am mark barton. We are 30 minutes into the trading day. Lets see how things are shaping up. Stocks have opened lower. Two days of gains have come to an end. The kleins in the european benchmark, the ftse 100, the cac 40 and the dax. Lets dig deeper. Who is better at digging . Standing at the touch screen with her three stocks to watch i will raise you a pun. Building. Balfour beatty, the worst performer on the stoxx 600 as well. Off more than 5 . It says the third time isnt so lucky. I do not want to merge. Why . The risks. They want to retrench at a time when construction is buoyant. You still want me to sell my u. S. Asset that i dont want to. Balfour beatty rejects and fails to extend the Takeover Panel deadline that comes friday at 5 00 p. M. Will karelian go hostile about Balfour Beatty . It looks like investors arent expecting that. Balfour beatty off by almost 6 . Another big follower is luxottica. This is the company that makes in there is some concern the Italian Press that the chief executive might be asked to step down by the companys founder. This is all speculation in the Italian Press. Clearly having an effect on the share price this morning. We will have to wait and see what we get back in terms of the companys statement. Vopak, the best performer on the stoxx 600. What does it do . Storage. Almost 12 . It is a record gain for vopak even though we saw that we are still expecting profit to drop. Not quite as much as had been expected. Ing say this is good news coming from vopak. They are saying profit will exceed 700 Million Euros. Shares trading with the biggest gain on record. Thanks. These are the Bloomberg Top headlines. Ministers release video showing the beheading of a man they have identified as james foley. Two u. S. Officials investigating the case told bloomberg they believe foley is indeed shown in the video. The clip concludes with a threat to kill a second american if president obama continues airstrikes against the Islamic State in iran. An egyptian brokered truce in the gaza strip has expired. Renewed rocket fire from Palestinian Militants and israeli air raids have killed at least three. At least 50 rockets hit israeli territory. Israel struck at least 25 targets in gaza. Airlines are on alert as icelands biggest volcano shows signs of eruption. Air france, lufthansa and delta are concerned about the busy north atlantic route. An eruption in 2010 created an ash cloud