Eu to ignore the u. S. And continue on with the nuclear deal. Lets look at how the u. S. Market post on friday. We at First Quarter gdp figures that took the wind out of equities sales. They are down almost 1 5 of the theent,. 20 , as well as dow industrial average. Strong following earnings from amazon and alphabet. Here at bloomberg, we are marking Donald Trumps first 100 days, and donald trump has done anything for equities, i have to say he has done a return of dispersion for stock market, a muchneeded dispersion. Take a look at this chart i have prepared for you. The s p 500 is up almost 12 since trumps election, however, this dispersion to pay big, big jump in the aftermath of the president ial win. This was muchneeded by investment professionals, who had been suffering under low volatility and low correlations for some time to come. What trump especially did essentially did was spur repricing as the market sought to adjust to his policies. We will discuss whether or not those policies have actually come to pass throughout this show, but here in the middle east we are just under two hours away from the opening of the markets into by and i would doubt me. Dhabi andn abu abu dhabi. They are down a little bit over 1 . A little dragged down bit, and nigeria is in talks to restructure alone. 4. 2 ou can see we are up. 42 for the ted owl tadawal. The Saudi British Bank down of it, which tells you something about the structure of the merger. Lets check in with the headlines around the world now. Thank you, tracy. Chinas official factory gauge drop to this month, falling from a near fiveyear high in march. The manufacturing pmi fell as well, dimming the outlook for recent growth. Indicatebove 50 improving conditions. Analysts upgraded their forecast for china for the Third Quarter gdp, unexpectedly rising to two point 6. 9 . President trump says he will be happy if nukes korea if north korea conducts a nuclear test, but reserved judgment on response that scenario. Ifmp says he does not know checking pyongyang will mean taking more military action. Meanwhile, the president warned of a Major Military conflict being possible if Automatic Solutions failed. North korea conducted another missile test on saturday, further raising tensions. Irans minister has asked the eu minister to ignore the u. S. And continue with the nuclear deal. Ambassador to germany says iran is in talks with the Financial Action task force to get off the high recent terror list. The Organization Says that this is antimoneylaundering and counterterrorist financing. Day,l news, 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts than 120 countries this is bloomberg. Tracy . Tracy lets have over to europe, because eu governments have thrown down the gauntlet to the u. K. Ahead of acid brexit talks. They are urging theresa may to be more realistic and her expectations. We are in brussels, and walk as the challenges that the eu is issuing to Prime Minister may . As you said, it is certainly an unwavering and unified eu 27, and they feel very much they are winning the brexit argument. They are in control of the negotiations. There was a long list of demands, but they want to extensive guarantees to about 3 million citizens living in the u. K. And the premise or luxembourg told the ee told bloomberg yesterday that i spoke with swedish Prime Minister, and he said the eu must pay that, as a part of the membership. But the biggest counter blow was the trade talks between the eu and u. K. Will not start until there is a case of substantial evidence of that happening. This is what german chancellor Angela Merkel has a after the meeting. Thatat is important is this is all about separation and different places have to be negotiated. We have to be differentiated from each other very clearly. In phase one, there is separation. Phase two, the transition to future relations. That has to be a clear line between the two of them. Appeared to have ed the eu appeared to have leverage into areas. Also gives the eu leverage by saying the eu could discuss Financial Services as part of a trade deal, but only if the u. K. Is willing to give the eu regulation area oversight over banking. The ideat odds with that the referendum was about taking back control from brussels, and it would be a major concession for theresa may. When it comes to trade, when it it comes to costs. They said they will not talk about trade until you give evidence that youre going to meet the commitments on system Citizens Rights and pay the bill. We know that negotiations will not start until after the election. The deadline is march 2019. But the policy really throws into doubt whether a trade deal can be reached within two years. Morgans emily says there is a 15 chance that the u. K. Will euft out crash out of the without a freetrade agreement and have to put up some money to pay for damaging these trade barriers. Aacy it seems like we have pretty packed agenda for eu officials in brussels. Some of those officials actually had some strong words for turkey after the government in that country decided to block access on wikipedia. I think that was just yesterday. What exactly are eu officials saying about that . At that was the news that we got yesterday. The relationship with turkey is certainly straining since that referendum. He was pretty unequivocal about his approach to turkey. We have to bring our relations to turkey into order. Access believe that but nevertheless, we strongly for the idea to pay place, which should take for economic and security issues. Ed it is a difficult situation, because turkey is important to the eu. Is the fourthlargest export it is far andys away the largest exportimport partner to the eu. It was back in december that the European Commission proposed upgrading the Customs Union relationship. But the leaders are concerned about how turkey deals with its internal and external affairs. Language that merkel used with how turkey deals with its disagreement. A lot of the principles the country demonstrates are at odds with Core European Union principles. This comes at a time when the eu agenda is countering the rise in ular rhythm that populism populism in french and german elections. Well have to see how that factors in relationships alongside exit. Brexit. Tracy nothing short of information to discuss there. Thank you, ed. Coming up next, we will take a look at markets and the arab gulf and find out how this market has done since the start of donald trump present the. P presidency up next, another take on the president s first 100 days in office. This is bloomberg. Tracy you are watching Bloomberg Markets, mr. Least middle east, live from dubai. U. S. President donald trump plans to shakeup washington, super charge the u. S. Economy, and put america first. How much has he achieved his first 100 days . I think it is a combination of positives, but my two words andd be economic symbolism Foreign Policy symbolism. I think the president is rejecting the power of the United States around the world, which i think is reinforcing to our allies and also putting a bit of pain into our adversaries. As economic symbolism, he is done a lot of things with executive orders that are letting will note that he wants economy to grow. To the combination of those two things. Turbulent . Difficult, as the first days always are, but a lot of promise, especially for Economic Policy and job creation in the United States. They have done a lot of extraordinary things in the first 100 days to create an environment in which businesses now invest,e can create jobs in a much better fashion then we would have expected six months ago. Tracy joining us now to talk more about trumps first 100 days is the head of research and chief economist at emirates nbd. Tim, it is nice to see you again. Let me start with one of my favorite, favorite charts at the moment. This is the difference, the gap between hard Economic Data in the u. S. Versus soft Economic Data. Soft Economic Data would be a news like sentiment surveys, Small Business optimism, and you need that the gap has really ride and widened since trump runs the election. Thats won the election. I think this means a lot of people have pinned their hopes and dreams on the Trump Administration, and weve not seen those come to reality yet. Tim that is right. The survey data has been pretty constructive. Optimism has carried over to the be part q1, and it will of april as well, q2. That has not lived up to the Economic Data. I think we saw the gdp tickers on friday for q1, and they were quite off. They were disappointing for the annual growth rate. Seasonally, i think it could be factors at play there that do serve to depress that firstquarter figure and subsequently, you often see it bounce back in activity. I suspect that may also play out this year. That gap between sentiment and optimism and the hard data will start to narrow again and the economic, the real data will play some catch up with the sentiment. Tracy if you think the real data will play catchup with sentiment, does that mean you are positive on the trump trade . The idea that he will be a will to create fiscal stimulus but eventually start some inflation . Tim there will be some fiscal stimulus, but it is a question of how much and where will take lace. We have seen some announcements take place. You seen some announcements, the tax form plans are not seeming to get a lot of support in the near future. So you need to look at that between debtor for easy traction between the white house in terms of getting fiscal reform together. But there will be stimulus via taxes. That will hopefully make an impact in 2018 rather than 2017. But where you will not see much in the way of stimulus is the other area that donald trump hopes, infrastructure spending. It seems unlikely you will get a big wholesale spending bill that will galvanize a lot of activity. I think it will be split on how his physical problems will play out. Tracy do differentiate on the trump trade versus a bridal, global reflation trade that was underway before trump won the election . Broader, global reflation trade before trump won the election . Tim it does appear to have been strengthening separately to what is ever going on with the United States in respect to the global economy. Some extent, that is reassuring markets that even if the u. S. Slows a bit, we will counter with stamina. We have seen eurozone growth picking up quite constructively, asian growth also doing quite well, and japan doing better than expected. I can say the world will probably live with a slightly less strong u. S. Economy wall they are pulling their weight. Tracy there is a fantastic bloomberg article on friday, which said trumps biggest a compliment could have been what he has undone. Undid sign, 13 of them previous acts by the Obama Administration acts signed, 13 of them undid previous act are the Obama Administration. What will that have in terms of an impact on the Business Environment . Tpp, transpacific partnership, we pulled out of that and it will still be seen how that works through in the u. S. Economy. I think several organizations looking notably about that. Will think negatively about that. But that is one of the factors which underpins the trump reflation trade that you talked about, and the idea that Financial Markets are going to have a bit more room to maneuver. Banks will be a bit more able to adapt in certain chances, and i think these are all things that Christmas Markets that should that markets would respond pretty well too. Tracy earlier, i was talking about stock version. Dispersion. People did position for Certain Industries are companies they thought would benefit when trump got elected. When we enter his next 100 days, what is your top trade idea . A new trump trade idea . Tim . Isoming out i think it artificially thinking in terms of those kinds of contracts constructs, but going onward, you can imagine there will be more emphasis on the tax reform. Maybe, if he is lucky he will be able to get a house bill through that was not able to be passed last week. There is suggestion that it may be in the house next week. I think there is progress on those things. That is where he probably wants to get some attention. Those areas are the ones we should be focusing on. Tracy the Market Reaction to the tax plan has been interesting, because we did the the administrations eight meant on wednesday. It met with a kind of muted reaction in most market, and in the week or so before, and like the rates market was basically pricing in the death of the plan completely. Why do we have that discrepancy between bonds and stocks right now . Tim i expect the plan itself with a disappointed was a disappointment because there was no detail in it. So the objective of the administration will be jumbled around the bones of that one page plan. I think if there is some optimism that we can glean from any details, youll probably see more of that growth area that is probably why you see stuff, little bit of a reversal in bond yields. Picture, the u. S. , if it makes any difference at all on the fiscal side, will only add to that. But the tracy but the bear argument is that you have congress and the way, and they might not want to see the deficit balloon. How do you counter that . Jim im not sure they will allow the deficit to balloon. I think the plan will be more cautious than the one i was originally cast last week. When it comes down to it, the stimulus will be much less. About cutting tax rates for corporations and businesses may be reduced. There will still be some stimulus. So i think to the extent that that happens, that is very positive. Tracy you are the chief for emirates nbd, so i would like to ask you before trump won the election, we all talked about the idea of secular stagnation, the idea that there might be on thing actually holding back Something Holding back potential for developed market economic growth. Learn not talking about that anymore. Just talked about trump and his potential to stipulate the wider stimulate the wider economy and his potential. Why is that . Tim it is about how trump will impact that michael area i am also thinking about this in longer term. It is a concentration impact that area. Im also thinking about this in longer term. Thistrying to think about on a daytoday basis rather than longterm trends. What we saw the other day was investments starting to pick up when the house has been holding back potential growth in the past. That is the star we are start of a term we are starting to see that could raise the potential growth rate, and we could see the idea of secular being a biterhaps of an argument if it starts to pick up. I do not know if we can pin a lot of hopes on that yet, but i think it is the beginnings of some optimism on that. Iscy i guess the good news if investment is coming back, it should not take long to start showing up in the hard data. Thank you so much for joining us today. The eu to iran asks turn a blind eye to the u. S. When it comes to their new year deal. Next, we are going to be talking with bloombergs alice shaheen about the revolving evolving relationship between washington and around under president. This is bloomberg. Tracy you are watching Bloomberg Markets, middle, live from dubai. Im tracy alloway. Lets turn to a run, because the country says the u. S. Is failing to fill some of the commitments and their nuclear agreement. Foreign minister the foreign minister claimed that legally speaking, relations between the two countries have returned to presanctions levels. Bloombergs alice shaheen joins us for more. We are marking the first 100 days of the Trump Administration, and it seems that if we take away anything has that 100 days, this grown more complicated. Thats right. And you have seen the tension enrich respect, from the deals perspective as the foreign minister would say, it is not what actually happened. It is not the sections related to the deal, but the threat of the sanctions still remain from before the nuclear agreement, which is like preventing european banks, for example, or making european banks anxious about financing investments in a because of u. S. Treasury sanctions. Theyis why rightly, have not seen the benefits of Foreign Investment coming in. Tracy let me pick up on that point, because we did have a on friday forte the iranian president ial election, and it was supposed to be about social issues and instead, the economy donna made it dominated. Where people so focused on the . Alaa in a ron, iran there are a few factors. Everything the previous of ministration staked everything on the nuclear deal, and the promise as far as how everything would change in a and now things are not changing quite as quickly. These things happen. You see a significant improvement in the oil sector because of the exports. No oil growth is still very moderate. This is essentially were jobs are created. So normal growth is around 1 or below that, in some instances. That will create a lot of jobs. So the us is coming in massive criticism, and indeed the economy is, and jobs in particular are the issue number one in the minds of the voters. As we saw the other day, all the other conservative candidates took time to attack him on that. He has been defending his record of the past few weeks, which shows that he is a bit on the defensive in this area. To leave itll have there. Im sure we will continue to talk about the iranian president ial election and the u. S. Relationship with the country as well. Com