It is 5 a. M. In london, midday in hong kong. Good morning. I manus cranny. And im Tracy Alloway. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets middle east. We have a couple things for you. Bonds, the rush in global stocks out at 1. 3 billion, wants also a billion dollars, this is the one week return of the s p 500, up nearly 4 . The one thing that it sounds like to me, 16 billion dollars of fresh cash went into equities, the biggest inflows in 14 months. It depends who your rate. Citigroup says get used to the trump rotation and their strategists have gone from overweight to underweight equities. Thebondholders tracy bondholders finally vindicated, right . If you believe in trumps America First policies, this is one way it is playing out in the market. If you look at the many futures versus theures equivalent contract in the s p 500, you can see the diverges. Emerging market futures cannot quite catch a bid. If you believe donald trump is going to put America First, this is how it plays out in markets. Thing that struck we over the weekend, you have brazil, you have india, nuances of intervention. At what point could you see a g20 reaction . Happy ofese are quite the moment. But these emerging markets central banks, they are not all created equal. We will be talking about that through this sunday morning bloomberg market middle east. We have about two hours to start the trading in the region. Thatdobby still has euphoria, the aphelion sobbing market. Have gone back into a bull market. The banks were on the rally there. 4. 52 . P by four point day of gains. 206 Million Pounds worth of stocks and the foreigners, they have 453 Million Pounds worth of stock. Tracy lets look at the markets where we have fireworks toward the end of last week to put it mildly. Take a look at the dow jones. It was up to a record on friday. Down a little bit on the back of truck. The story is one of exuberance. Manus is trump such a protectionist . Should tech the see a worried . On the other side, is it in inflation trade or a trade . Or is it both. Tracy generally when you see stocks up, markets are getting really excited about the tax cuts, the infrastructure spending, and the idea that inflation will come back to the u. S. Manus those are things we will touch on in the show. Lets get ours check on the first word headlines. The trump Economic Advisor and has warned that the resident may not stick to traditional republican eric republican budgetary discipline or promises from his campaign. He said that he is not dogmatic, but instead sets bold targets from which to negotiate. Tracy these sky Bridge Capital founder is an executive of trumps transition team. The rnc chair reince priebus, three of the resident elects children, and his soninlaw are on his team. And Hillary Clinton believes that revelations about stopped herse Campaign Momentum before the election. During a Conference Call with donors, she said she was leading into battleground states before james comey revealed the revised email investigation. She also told donors she is heartbroken over the results. Tracy hundreds of thousands of people rallied in the south , calling for the resignation of the president. Organizers say that the protest drew 100,000 people. The scale of the weekend rallies have been growing after she said she consulted allies about documents after taking office. Olombias government says it has reached an agreement with farc rebels. Manus the accord tries to address concerns raised by opponents of the original plans to and 52 years of war between marxistrnment and rebels. The imf has approved the largest loan of its kind right here in the region, 12 billion. That is the program. Revive itsp egypt battered economy. Joining us on the phone, a Vice President of microstrategy. Lets start with the basic facts puthere will this money be to work most expediently that we will see result . Good morning. I think the key thing is funding the budget deficits. You are funding the deficit around 18 to 20 . A third of the total budget spending. Youre going to fund this was you are trying to work with lower funding costs initially. We know that this has come through very painful moves by egypt. How would that impact the authorities there . How are they dealing with it . Mohamed i think the move on the eign exchange was actually as much as it is inflation generating, it has already been happening for a while. I think it is more of a relief forhe Business Community the functioning market. I think we have seen a decent close in the banking sector. Those businesses are starting to deal with the banks again. I think to an extent, it is a big relief for the economy and we are starting to see foreign money flowing in in just the first week. Yeah, it is a big relief. Are tryinghorities to improve the system. Manus lets just touch on one of the themes he raised there. You have the finance minister saying we expect Foreign Investments to be around 8 billion to 10 billion over the two months. Is that achievable . How important is it that the bond sale goes well . This is veryously, important. It is a key component of the government funding plan. Hasally, the Government Authority from the cabinet to issue 5 billion of bonds. The dollar is obviously needed. It will help the government diversify the sources of funding the budget, and so far the indicators we have seen are quite promising on that note. What is next for egypts markets . We have the imf loan, devaluation. Things we were waiting for for a long time. What are you watching for in the week ahead . Mohamed the key thing is the contained improvement in the Foreign Exchange flows, which has been showing is a very good indicators in the first week. The key thing here is these reforms start to pay off in terms of the pickup in the long growth and it dominates activity across the board. S really looking forward all of these reforms are helping the state grow. Manus the risk to egypt is, of course hyperinflation and we are looking at core cpi. Nearly 16 . What does that mean for the central bank . The egyptianisk central bank needs to raise rates again, more so on the inflation side than on the currency side . Mohamed 600 basis points actually markets have gone up from that. It has increased rates of further from that point. Theres the key point is has to be proper tightening market policy, which from a rates prospective head of been already respective had been invested. The Central Bank Says it has loss, you look at the they have been indeed so. So, you need to see your money supply being controlled. What youre seeing now is a oneoff inflation. All of these measures have been in stated in a very short time. The key thing is, you need to see growth coming up and being controlled. All right, thank you, all the way from cairo, joining us this morning. , commodities fall the most in four months as traders assess plans. We will discuss the fx later in the show. Does come fromat victory mean for the Global Economy . Will he keep his promises entree . This is bloomberg. Tracy welcome back. You are watching Bloomberg Markets middle east. Life in dubai, im Tracy Alloway. Manus cranny. Never far from our agenda. His economic advisers saying that he may not stick to the public in orthodoxy or positions from his campaign. What is emerging over the weekend and his actual position versus those a great hyperbole in the runup to his victory . As we kind of expected this will be an unpredictable president ial administration. I think trump is showing he is beholden to nobody in washington, probably the first president who can find that. I think Congressional Republicans probably should be as worried as kratz about what this president may do. Have we seen any indication as to who may have influence over trump at this time . I think it is clear his family is the most influential source in his life, his daughter , may be ofar, ivanka particular moderating influence on him, particularly when it comes to health care and womens issues such as the funding planned parenthood which is been a republican goal for some time now. Manus obviously we saw the media fest, trump arriving at the white house, spending time. I watched that call. I watched a lot of body language experts talk about that. What is six for obama. I suppose so much of his history what is next for obama . As opposed to much of his history is going to be undone. The europeans are meeting next week. They do not know really what to discuss, do they . Yeah, obama leaves next week , and now he will be spending a lot of some explaining to his peers in europe and asia just what happened in the United States and what we are up to over here. Just asign leaders are curious about trumps agenda as americans are. All right, thanks to alex wayne speaking to us from washington, d. C. Thank you. Us, nasser cedi. There is no shortage of things to talk about at this time. How would you describe the events over the past week in terms of their influence on markets . This is going to be a very choppy time for markets. You have policy uncertainty in europe. You have policy uncertainty in europe. Elections are coming up in ma, france, italy as well. Policyill go into uncertainty. We do not know the policy of the Trump Presidency. We are in transition, very much discussion, but remember, this is populism and populism is very opportunistic and also very pragmatic. So dont expect any erudite looks to be written about trumps political philosophy. Books to be written about trumps political plus three. It will be reactions to events as opposed to a well laid out policy. Manus when i read the oped from Anthony Scott emoji in the he talks about, the revegetation for taxes, Corporate Tax coming down from 35 to 15 i think we are dealing with a great many, many unknowns, but from an economic point of view, they are talking about doubling u. S. Growth. Is that her per release reality and what are the inflationary consequences . Could the leasing or you get some boost in growth would be infrastructure. Lets remember obama in his first term proposed infrastructure then and even to set up an infrastructure bank. The advantage trump has is he is both the house and the senate, he is a strong republican president. He could get it done. If you do that, you get a shortterm first two economic growth, maybe 1 if you accelerate that. The thing you need to remember is infrastructure is not just federal. Its also state and local. It has to be agreed at the state and local level. The big issue is what you going to do to increase activity growth . That is what is important. If you start imposing restrictions on trade, immigration, youre not going to get that longterm growth boost. Tracy i want to pick up on manus inflation point. We have seen the bond selloff to read how is it that donald trump before he is even in office has managed to do what janet yellen, the boe, the ecb could not . Nasser because what he is talking about is a real increase in deficit spending. If you talk about the pronouncements, youre talking increase inrillion the next four or five years. That could really raise inflation. That is what the markets are reacting to. Lets talk about that. Plot, potentially where the fed could go. Next year, lets run it through. Goes for an inflation fiscal spending next year, what sort of rate increases could we see next year . Could it be much more accelerated . Lets remember that real rates are zero or negative. When they talk about increases in interest rates, we are about relatively small amounts. If you treat it as a large deficit increase, you could have a half percent increase your. The fed is still going to hold on to its policy. To discuss. More di, our economist in the hot seat. What is the impact of growth,mics on trade, and china. We will discuss that. This is bloomberg. Tracy welcome back. You are watching Bloomberg Markets middle east. Live from dubai, i am Tracy Alloway. Manus i manus cranny. Joining us, nasser saidi. Thee trying to understand Market Impact of trump exceeding the power in january. He has talked a great game in terms of what he wants to do for oil independence. What did that mean from your perspective . I think that is the key thing to expect from a trump. Oil,ll give more to shale, and gas, probably go for more independence, which means he will add supply, so the prospects for oil, i think, will be bearish. We have the subsidies, the introduction of taxation. Tracy lets talk about the dollar. It has declined as results were coming in. It has rebounded. What does a stronger dollar mean for economies in the middle east which have a pegged currency . Nasser the problem is the impact on the nonoil economy. Tourism, services, other things you are trying to develop are less competitive than they are. We have already seen that over the last few years. Astead of dealing through depreciated Exchange Rate, we have had relatively strong currencies. Chess the other global piece, if you want to think of it that way is china. If i look at the trade relationships, and we had a view piece. Erg it fits china quite nicely. Thisonsequences of antitrade rhetoric, how damaging could that be . We have not heard the detail yet. True, but it could extend also to europe. Protectionism is increasing for europe. Surcharges on chinese steel. It could take you into a global trade decline. China, i dont think, is very much concerned. China is developing its asia markets and integrating asia, africa, latin america. Besident xi is going to signing a whole bunch of agreements. So, retrenchment, i think, within europe and the United States is going to play in chinas favor and the only other thing we should note, if there is political stability, it happens to be in china and president xi. Manus i think that is the best line i have call morning. Nasser it tells a lot because you are entering into a time of uncertainty. Look at brexit. As a betting man, i would invest in china. Look at what alibaba did two days ago with single day. Manus if you ever wanted a personification of the chinese consumer, that is it. Thank you for joining us. Coming up, one of the got . Below oil now 15 percent the output for opec fell output tracy all right, lets take a onk at the top stories Bloomberg Markets middle east. A trump economic adviser is worn the next u. S. President may not stick to traditional republican budgetary discipline or positions taken in his campaign. If they scare emoji said anthony scare emoji said that he is not dogmatic, but looks more strong positions from with to negotiate. Team along with rnc priebus, three of the present electoral children, and his soninlaw. Manus rallies for a fourth day on saturday against donald election victory. He marches were set in big cities such as new york and chicago, s well as as well as smaller cities. Saturdays rallies were mostly peaceful. Warren buffett is once again the second richest person in the world and he may have donald trump to thank. Buffett, who supported it clinton, added 6. 2 billion to his fortune last week, after wells fargo jumped in the two days after the election on bets that the jump administration will reduce banking regulation. Its Berkshire Hathaway buffetts Berkshire Hathaway has a 10 stake in the lender. Is its economy battered political turmoil 2. 25 gets payments of billion dollars on a bet that it will reduce currency inflows. Tracy all right, oil has tumbledwill to an eightweek lo. Fell on friday with britt for january delivery below 45 a barrel. With anthonyupdate to paulo anthony, it seems like run enjoyed a pretty good up on prices on the back of a talk about a deal, but those price gains seem like they are starting to run out of ski out of steam. Its opecs consensus falling apart . Yes, it would seem to be what the market is looking at as a risk now. Lots of details remained uncertain, who was going to cut what . Now we have seen continued rises in production. It run, one of the countries that would be exempted iran, one of the countries that would be exempt it, they are coming back from sanctions and trying to ramp up. Iraqi is still disputing secondary sources. Has the potential for opec to continue growing, and that is showing potentially we have a lot of supply in the market and even if opec does cut, they have a long way to go down and the market is scratching its had going, where is this going to come from . Drop are these going to back . The market is seeing that as increasing risk that they will in out to implement that geez algiers. Is a lotu said there of head scratching. Why are the opec members so aggressive . Are they based on an average in that average is a higher average . What is it in terms of this move . Onhony the good money is the fact that they are trained to get themselves to eight high point, they are going from a high level, so these countries, the opec individual members are at a level that brings in foreign currency. Of course, we dont know what the opec terms are yet, whether they are going to take an average, take a specific month, and this is something that opec does not determine for itself. They held a meeting last month that was meant to work out some of those problems. They are going to meet later month. Decide who to cut and at what levels and where were going to get in the in in the end. Manus anthony, thank you for joining us. It sawn oil prices its biggest drop since july as traders assess the possibility of a donald Trump Presidency. White house in january. Welcome to the show. What does donald trump mean for the Emirates Team in terms of oil and americans supply . Perspective . Market is not really sure how much he has talked about in his campaign will be implemented. If we look at what he was talking about, he was trying to portray himself as being more prooil, making it easier for them to drill. Pipelines ea