ue of green, mirroring what is happening in the u.s. without the record. july inest gains sense the stoxx 600. final estimate for november, headline 1.5. it has been overtaken by last week's ecb meeting when the projection for inflation for 2020 of 1.7% causing many to question draghi's ability to maintain that inflation target but inflation, same as the earlier estimate. about economic surprise. this is the economic surprise index from citigroup and for europe. fascinating chart. the u.s. fell away through june and went negative showing the data missing estimates on average and now it is boring and both -- both estimates are roughly around 72.2. economic surprises in both the u.s. and the eu marrow in each other -- mirroring each other. the deal cementing brazil at the heart of the national growth strategy for the coming years. 90 minutes into the session in the u.s. how is it looking over there? julie: seeing strength as the per -- the passage of the tax bill gets closer and a corporate tax rate cut comes along with it. all of our major averages are trading at records. moveve the groups on the and you see a lot of green on the screen, the exception being utilities. energy, financials, consumer discretionary, you name it, it is up with the exception of that one group. december tends to be a strong month of the year and then there is the so-called santa claus rally that you get at the end of december. it has not been universal. this looks at the past several years -- 10 years i think is what we've got. seven of those years, we have seen gains, an average of around 1%. the past two years, we have seen declines for the s -- s&p 500. elsewhere, we are looking at that point as -- at bitcoin as futures are trading. $18,899 is where it is at, right now. btca shows you the price of one. this is interesting to look at the differences between them. we were seeing an unusually large spread between cash bitcoin and the futures. seeing a bit of a coming in of those spreads as the cme starts trading as well. the u.s. dollar, we have been watching that as well. we do have the yield on the 10-year note up about two basis points and gold is catching the bid as well. a little bit of selling as we've got buying in stocks. mark: theresa may has been speaking to parliament on phase two of the brexit negotiations. joining us now is bloomberg's london bureau chief. she wants to leave the single market and the customs union while having the benefits. that is not going to go down well is it? david: it is having the cake and eating it from the european perspective but she laid out two ideas that she thinks is going to create this happy mix. she said new arrivals are going to have to register. the borders are still open. european union -- members of the european union and still come in. the second point is on trade. britain is currently for britain to negotiate any other trade deals with other countries. those are all done through brussels. she now says we are going to have to start hatching those deals. we can negotiate and sign them and them with a transition deal ends, we can get those things going, so they can start these negotiations with these bigger markets around the world. mark: we are used to this, already. we feel -- david: pretty used to the different sides of the eu coming out with some pretty strong rebuttals, the last few days. wayaying that there is no the u.k. can expect to have a bespoke trade deal. once they leave the single market, they are going -- there are going to be consequences, so there is a big gap. the european union will be sitting out there clear guidelines that they will have for the negotiations, going forward. mark: meanwhile, we had a brexit subcommittee meeting, today. a full one cabinet meeting tomorrow whereby it will be discussed what our final position is on brexit. one wonders why this is taking place now. that is a tricky conversation given the factions in the cabinet. david: a very difficult task, keeping all of these factions together. hiss johnson talking about fears. there is this idea that if we are going to leave, we have to leave. you got people on the other side of the fence. may has so far help things together, give her some credit. but it is going to be a long road and a lot of hurdles. mark: and first, it is the transition deal. the signs are good that the eu clearly wants one. iteration of around two years and then we move on to trade in march. david: all of it is very elastic. officials have come out and said it is not a given that this transition is going to happen. there are different views among the remaining eu 27. all of this is under negotiation. mark: and you will be here to tell us all about it. bloomberg's london bureau chief, continuing to watch the prime minister, theresa may. vonnie: back in the usa, the gop tax reform plan. congress is expected to approve the bill by midweek and send it to the president's desk. a national security speech later today. kevin cirilli joins us from capitol hill. a couple of things blind-siding people like this parks for real estate investors. any things coming out of the woodwork? kevin: that real estate development is what is getting a lot of attention on capitol hill and seemingly as part of the reason senator bob corker from tennessee ultimately got on board with this plan. breaking news in the last half-hour. paul ryan's office putting out a statement saying the house of representatives will vote on the tax reform bill tomorrow. first up tomorrow is when the house will take on this vote and it is expected the senate will follow shortly after that. this could be wrapped up by midweek. vonnie: what about the votes? the gopow for sure that has the votes? john mccain is likely not going to be able to vote due to his failing health. republicans do have the votes of senators like cork and flickr. -- and corker and flake. it looks like the separate conversation we will be having about the deficit and averting a government shutdown, they're likely going to punt this off until january 20. if you are following this from outside of washington, it can get a little confusion -- confusing. democrats very much against this , hoping to use this to cannonball -- catapult their chances in 2018. i have spoken with several different sources that say the divisive issues of the different -- of the deficit hawks on government spending that they have kind of dodged will be alive and well when it comes to january and funding the government. as a result of that, the press they have more leverage on the issue of immigration. that said, we should note that president trump's top legislative priority for next calendar year is infrastructure and if there is one thing that makes house republicans -- house freedom caucus members bristled, it is infrastructure bank. spending is definitely going to come back. vonnie: we get a speech later. will anything useful emerge? kevin: definitely just a messaging document. the theme is going to be america first and president trump trying to usher in a culture of competition amongst the country and enter in a new era in which the countries are competing with each other for the best deals. vonnie: thanks, kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. president trump is scheduled to speak today about national security. that speech is 2:00 p.m. eastern, 7:00 p.m. london time. let's check in on the "first word news," with courtney donohoe. courtney: one man has been arrested after a disturbance of the airbase used by the u.s. air force. according to british news -- british news media, a car try to ram the gates. -- tried to ram the gates. president trump will declare china a strategic competitor. according to senior a administration officials, the president speech will be implement by -- president's trophy influenced by trade -- president's trophy will be -- will bet's speech influenced by trade. thousands of people are still stranded at the airport in atlanta. open seats are very hard to find. in austria, a conservative has been sworn in as chancellor. the people's party struck a deal with the national freedom party on friday. the coalition has come out with a program designed to preempt concerns that austria could stray from the eu. he is the youngest leader in europe. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. espn's jones skipper has resigned. george bodenheimer is going to take over as acting chairman of espn. disney's shoot -- disney shares have been in negative territory all day. abc is still positive, but espn's ceo john skipper has resigned. mark: coming up, more bitcoin buzz as the cryptocurrency makes its debut on the cme. we will talk to spencer bogart, head of research at blockchain capital. we are keeping a close eye on south africa, awaiting the anc leadership results. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from bloomberg's world european headquarters in london, i am mark barton with the european close, 40 minutes away. vonnie: the world to give the crypto craze as bitcoin rallied toward $20,000. it makes its debut on the cme. this is just one week after cbo introduced bitcoin futures on its exchange. joining us is spencer bogart, head of research at blockchain capital. i suppose we have to have a 20 -- 2018 outlook. what is yours? spencer: things can go up, things can go down that we are in the first inning of that coin adoption -- of bitcoin adoption. less than 2% of any -- of people own any bitcoin and only 19% said they are likely to buy any in the next five years. if we consider the institutional side of the table which is an order of magnitude larger, we are really in the first inning as well. institutional ownership is effectively 0%. just in the past two weeks, we have seen the institutionalization of bitcoin. this is very much the first inning. vonnie: what about exchanges? we have seen cbo, cme. do we see more widen the contracts they are offering? spencer: absolutely. whether you are the exchange operators or you are so many that wants to speculate on the asset itself. people are just dipping their toes in the water. 2018 will see nasdaq roll out futures contracts. that are supporting derivatives today will continue rolling out more and better contracts -- products. mark: the upward trajectory of bitcoin has not ended. spencer: why is that? that is a very good quest -- has not ended. why is that? spencer: that is a very good question. as price rises, we think about that supply/demand imbalance. the supply of people willing to sell a particular stock increases in me well, demand tends to fall off as financial ratios make a price-to-earnings or enterprise value tens to get higher. it is kind of the opposite case with bitcoin. is locked down with long-term holders that have severe conviction with this asset. they have been in multiyear bear markets and volatile markets. if they did not sell at $10,000 i do not know why they would sell at $20,000. on the demand side, bitcoin is kind of reflexive. people take it much more seriously when it was at $10,000. some people will similarly do the same at $20,000. mark: who are the big winners, who are the big losers in this massive moment we seem to be witnessing in the world of cryptocurrencies and finance? spencer: let's use the internet analogy and think about the early days. what did you want to own? you wanted to own the isps because everybody had to get online. if we think about this crypto revolution, right now you want to own the exchanges because they are the on ramps. with so many wants to exchange their dollars or euros for bitcoin, they need in exchange to do so. many of these are not only the fastest growing financial services companies on the planet, but they are the most profitable -- profitable in terms of ratios as well -- margins as well. mark: what is the role of legacy financial institutions in all this? spencer: that remains to be seen. what is going on is the crypto ecosystem is building a parallel financial system. whether or not that is deeply embedded with the legacy financial system or it grows in parallel remains to be seen. mark: you are investing in blockchain startups and crypto assets. give us a mandate -- an idea of what you are investing in. spencer: blockchain capital is one of the oldest firms dedicated exclusively to investing in crypto firms. we have a broad swath of companies across all applications. identity and supply chain, it is across the board. mark: spencer, great to see you. spencer bogart, head of research at blockchain capital in san francisco. the close is still ahead. and exclusive interview with the thales ceo, coming up. vonnie: we want to have a look at the rand. 3.6%.nd is stronger by bond yields dropping across the continent and south africa's 10 year yield is down 21 basis points. that is a lot of bond buying in south africa as prospects there look more attractive under a new leader. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. the: and live from bloomberg european headquarters in the city of london, i am mark barton. time for the bloomberg business flash. espn, disney's powerhouse sports network. john skipper is stepping down saying he is struggling with a drug addiction. campbell soup will pay about -- for snyder. snyder's pretzels have been selling well. campbells soup sales have been in a slump. for she has agreed to buy texas-based amplified snack brands. that represents a 71% premium. the brand includes skinny pop popcorn. hershey says they see the deal adding the first year after closing. take a look at where european markets are trading. we are roughly four minutes away from the end of the monday session. of rising in anticipation the tax bill arriving next week. most of the action is on the events in south africa with the rand rallying. is there a recount in the anc election? other details breaking as we continue to monitor events in south africa. ♪ is this a phone? or a little internet machine? it makes you wonder: shouldn't we get our phones and internet from the same company? that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit, or go to xfinitymobile.com. mark: breaking news out of south africa. the anc presidential vote is set to be recounted after an objection. it looks like there was going to be a recount, which makes -- which means it will be a bit longer before we find out the results of that election that is taking place at the african national congress. we have seen big moves on the rand. ,his is the wonderful chart this is overnight volatility and earlier, we saw it rise 72%. that is a massive gain, the biggest since lehman brothers. it gives you and idea of how investors are on edge ahead of the results of this and see election. suggesting investors are expecting a large swing after the result. we will keep an eye on this overnight volatility. a recount taking place in south africa. that is the overnight volatility. this is the stoxx 600. the biggest increase since july 12. investors keeping an eye on what is happening in the u.s., in the hope for some sort of resolution to the tax process. industry groups rising led by base resources, stoxx 600 up by 1.2%. another interesting chart. that shows the yields of peripheral countries within the eurozone. yield exceeding that of portugal. the italian economic expansion is forecast to be the second slowest, this year among regional peers. investors began to focus on next year's general election and many observers fear could prove inconclusive. that is what is happening in the periphery bond market. down by 7.5%.s shares of stock derivatives, speaking of the european regulators, laying out tougher rules on speculative products, some of the largest platforms for retail investors to trade contracts for. out -- how itt may curve leverage and how much they could lose on the contracts and ban the sale. consequently, shares of igr down. -- of ig are down. the development of their seeing the same bounce, you could call it the santa claus rally. some people say it is the tax reform. it is certainly not volatility. look at the difference between the 210 spread and the 530 spread. i wanted to point out the rand again because we are looking at a rand that is 3.75% stronger. it is not an official results yet, but there has been a recount demanded by the potential loser. as you can see in the sovereign bond space, i don't see south africa there because we are looking at top markets but south africa's 10 year yield is down about 20 basis points. switzerland is all over the map. taking place in stocks and fixed income. mark: let's turn to m&a deals. aerospace expert thales has agreed to buy --. joining us now for exclusive chiefiew, thales executive patrice caine. majore you making this strategic expansion away from your core business? reason. for a simple leader ineate a world what i call digital security. we are very complementary in this field. ofis clearly a combination our reputation in a digital world and additional security. did the bid precipitate your deal? did it quick and the process? -- quicken the process? we started some initial ago.ssion a few months we are already working with the management team to combine our respective strengths. mark: things would not have ifked out any differently they hadn't of barged in patrice: the interest of gemalto and thales is clearly in different of atos. it has to be carefully approached. how involved did the french government get in the final days of the process and how did that affect the outcome? if we keep to the facts, the french state clearly voted in favor. thales voted unanimously in , of thisthe deal transaction. over at gemalto, the same happened. hence we are here to celebrate. mark: do you know if you had to fend off other informal suitors or was it just atos? patrice: i don't know. was here with an they retrieve their offer since sunday night. mark: what sort of obstacles remain? some point to see if i approval in the u.s.. are there further obstacles before this deal is completed? i don't see any obstacle to this deal. we need to convince the shareholders of gemalto to win their support to thales. we have a long experience in terms of -- we are very present in the u.s. we had the latest acquisition in , involved in cybersecurity. we are presenting defense with our proxy company. we are good in the u.s. with the respective u.s. citizens and we do not anticipate any difficulty in this regard. mark: are you done with m and a or is -- or is there more to come? patrice: one step after the other. mayer -- my priority is to complete this transaction with some technical steps to go through, then we will have to integrate the companies. to integrate two industrial high-tech companies. we will see. mark: you are anticipating 150 million euros of chronic -- of cost savings. that is roughly 5% of gemalto's sales. are you being conservative there? i don't know of we are being conservative, but clearly -- ine ideas on top of terms of you -- new usages, we can develop together in [indiscernible] in the air traffic management. we have many different ids. it is too soon to put some figures on the table. mark: thank you for joining us on this big day. ceo patrice caine, joining us for an exclusive interview. vonnie: let's check on the "first word news." here is courtney donohoe. courtney: the house is moving ahead with the bill to boost defense spending well funding the rest of the government through january 19. sent them across could block it and that means there will need to be a compromise to keep the government from shutting down after friday. -- inappropriate sexual behavior. alice can zinsky has been on the ninth circuit court of appeals since 1985. 15 women had accused -- have accused him of making sexual contact -- making sexual comments to them. president trump a last-minute multimillion dollar perk in the tax cut bill. lawmakers were trying to lock up republican support for the measure so the added a provision late in the process. and allows real estate companies to take advantage of the new tax breaks for so-called pass-through businesses. elected, -- has been president by a bigger than expected margin. he won nearly 55% of the vote and pledge to reverse four years of sluggish economic growth. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. vonnie: thank you. coming up, espn loses a major executive. what john skipper's absence will mean for disney's sports media. we want to remind you to tune in tomorrow at 12:30 p.m. london time for an exclusive interview with robert kaplan. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london, i am mark barton. vonnie: and i am vonnie quinn. this is the european close. mark: time for the bloomberg business flash. has hired goldman sachs to help review plans for its animal health business. lili is considering a potential sale or ipo of the unit that may be worth $15 million or more. -- forging alliance to take on alibaba in e-commerce and digital payment. -- moving toward tripling its production in brazil. the company will pay up to $2.9 billion for a stake in a large brazilian offshore oilfield. they will continue to operate the fields. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. vonnie: our stock of the hour is disney. trading just slightly higher afterword that president john skipper is resigning from espn. nowail doolittle joins us with more. abigail: lots of news and as you mentioned, john skipper of -- of espn stepping down for substance abuse. andas had a great career disney is grateful. paul sweeney was saying that espn is much more than just the ceo. while this is hugely high profile, it is not that big a deal for the stock and we see that in the stock, not really doing much. it is aboutdisney, 30% of their operating income. investors and consumers are going away from watching cable. how do they fight that? they have two plans. thatare creating an app will go on the people's phones so they can basically watch sports all the time. that will happen in 2019. doing the same thing for some of the disney products in film and tv as well. this is a big profile headline but bottom line, it seems unlikely to hurt numbers. and george bodenheimer is going to take over for now. abigail: it would seem to be the case. the other big piece of news around disney, the acquisition of some of those fox assets. it is clear they are aggressive and both on the offense of and defensive against the likes of alphabet and apple to make sure they get the job done at the end of the day to create that content direct to consumers. vonnie: abigail doolittle, thank you. we will continue to give more insight on what john skipper's resignation will mean. joining us is gerry smith, our media reporter for bloomberg news. for espn, we have to think about its future. there has been a lot of controversy in the last few. how does george bodenheimer deal with anything going forward? gerry: this caps a tumultuous year at espn. the hill controversy. they are trying to remake sportscenter for this age of social media. there is an anonymous amount going on. there looking to create a direct to consumer service. whoever takes over for john skipper has his or her hands very full. mark: it comes of course as disney tries to buy 21st century fox. how does this fit into that? gerry: that is something the head of espn has to think about -- bob iger talked about how those regional sports networks will be a complement to knew of theiously regional sports directors or espn have on streaming services a really premium sport, so that is kind of a challenge as we figure out a way to get people to tune in to these is -- the streaming services when things like monday night football are not actually going to be on there for the time being. skipper had just signed a contract that would have given him until 2021. was in his idea to partner up -- gerry: espn and the culture of the women there, it was a very critical piece. -- got a lot of and this is a company and faces real challenges they are also on the hook for billions of dollars in tv rights .or the sports leagues vonnie: disney down a 10th of 1%. thanks to -- our gerry smith, media reporter for bloomberg news. mark: it is be otc time -- it is battle of the charts time. who comes out on top? we will find out, next. ♪ mark: some breaking news on south africa. look at the dollar falling against the rand, the biggest drop for a couple years. the rand leaping by 4% on expectations. time for our global battle of the charts, taking a look at some of the most compelling charts of the day. kicking things off, her debut in the new studio. sophia. sophia: i was looking at how nice that blue line looks. i had to stretch all the way across to show you. it shows the stocks of european companies that sell to europe. i wanted to show you that the gap. 2006.s the widest since talking about tax cuts in the u.s. boosting growth there, everyone is looking at demand growing in europe. that is what is boosting equities in europe. it is demand at home that matters. it does not matter whether we get better growth next year because growth at home and demand at home is so strong. vou can see my chart at #bt 7263. vonnie is more of a neighbors person. never liked home or away. mark: -- vonnie: i was kind of into both of them. these are soap operas for those who do not know if they are. all of the marble franchises and so forth. you can see it has been rising as the central banks are tightening and they are staying on course of that -- as they have forecast they would. the spread between the treasury and the bond yield has widened about five basis points since last july, since the last fed rate hike and it looks like that trend might continue. you can see that chart on the bloomberg. sofia's firstike time. she did talk about home and away but we did gets a revelation from vonnie. she is a aussie soap fan. that alone gets her the victory. our knowledge of their career paths as well -- her knowledge of their career paths as well. ,oming up on the european close bernie madoff case -- ♪ retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. vonnie: it is noon in new york, :00 p.m. in london and 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, hero the top stories on the bloomberg and around the world. house and senate republicans have an agreement on a final tax bill. lawmakers adding a last-minute provision that delivers a multimillion dollar windfall to real estate investors. espn is sending shockwaves through the media space. the president of the sports network resigning, citing a substance abuse problem. bitcoin futures made their debut on the cme. shery: breaking news out of south africa. we are hearing that the votes have been counting -- counted