Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 2017082

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas August 22, 2017

Buying there. Nasdaq 100 highest since june. Those are some of the Tech Companies im keeping my eyes on. We are looking at a pretty broadbased rally. You can see nine out of the 11 sectors are green, showing a broadbased rally. I want to look at some of the tech stocks and some of the big companies. Not a lot of news behind that. A note this morning from experts saying President Trump after his turning at night was new leaf, showing the can listen to leaders and perhaps getting some criticism, showing he could really listen in terms of when it comes to routes on the ground. Also feeling that as we round out the other asset classes, we are going to look at the dollar index because we are waiting jackson hole tomorrow, a speech from mario draghi and janet yellen. That risk on yield pushing the dollar up higher, about. 3 . Maybe we can look at tax reform now. Finally, we are looking at the 10 year yield. The Central Bank Governors that will be speaking, we have been hovering around that 20 range. A little overall risk on here with a stronger dollar and bonds iming off fearful julia going to pick up there as investors try to move past recent local turmoil in backngton, ray elio is with a new note of caution, saying hes reducing risk because he is can learn about growing internal and next journal conflict leading to impaired efficiency. He doesnt seem to be the only one. Risk aversion measures have been rising. Conflict ready . The markets still intact, get on with it . Guest its hard to say. It seems safe to conclude the amount of medical dysfunction in the United States seems to grow every day and i read Something Like the biggest fear of parents and their kids marrying is now marrying somebody of the opposite Political Party which says something. There does seem to be a structural divide that would support trump no matter what and slightly more who would oppose them no matter what and that doesnt make for a harmonious backdrop. Julie if you look at post election, there was hope on at least part of the Business Community that there was going to be some positive measures achieved and you have a chart that shows this. Specifically this is political optimism . This is almost hidden on the right side of the screen. This goes back to 1988 and then im going to try and zoom. It shows a big spike up post election. Guest there is an unprecedented amount of optimism that flooded in, at least the respondents to the Michigan Survey after the election of donald trump which has sort of receipt about halfway. Oh may remember mr. Delly wrote waxing lyrical about trump breaking out his iran references and john gault was going to be treasury secretary or something. Class that is quite interesting in that context. What is interesting is he doesnt talk about the markets very much. Its mostly talking about the divide, almost as an afterthought, he says im tactically reducing risk. ,hen you look at this chart when you look at the tender of the country right now, how do you translate that into what its going to mean for the Financial Market . Thet you need to look at confidence of real actors in the economy, not only consumers and broad Consumer Confidence the Business Confidence. Moment, Business Confidence remains high. Similar to that charge, you had in thee in rise aggregate economy after the election and that has not really receded. What we have seen recently is the ceos and corporate bigwigs defecting from the administration and the issue is is that just political orediency or amoral qualm does it reflect a loss of confidence in Corporate America over the direction the company the country is going in . That would have a more negative implication is businesses conduct their activities accordingly by investing and hiring less. Julia in the shortterm, are the fundamental getting lost or blurred by the political noise . The s p went nowhere fast. Rally upjustifying the to this point as opposed to the rally Going Forward. Guest its the classic buy the rumor, sell the stock. Fundamental fundamentally justifies a weakening of the dollar but it has weakened more than traditional drivers would suggest which means we can pay to some sort of disquiet not only from domestic but international investments. Time, whenhe same you talk about the underlying confidence in the economy, the showeds seen we got past relative strength in the earnings but it didnt seem to translate what happened in the stock market. How do we navigate that Going Forward . Everyone says its about the fundamentals and the fundamentals are good, but if they dont matter as much anymore guest earnings season was good, but if we look at the actual levels, they were not much higher than they were three years ago. Argue it was already baked into the price. We look at places like walmart and that was actually white lousy. Its a what have you done for me lately market. The investors will be forwardlooking. If some of the guidance is quite right and theres a backdrop of political unease and thats a reasonable rationale for taking when we have table had a monolithic straightline advanced for nine months. That can only continue for so long before there is some mean reversion. It would require stronger policy to justify valuations as well. If you are concerned about the hase and stability, if that an impact, at some point, that does matter. The trump bump is all but gone, but to justify the rallies, we are looking at fundamentals. We have to move on. Now lets check on the bloomberg first word news with mark crumpton. Mark a top u. S. Commander for the middle east is the first new forces will arrive in afghanistan within days or weeks. President trump is not how many Additional Service members he plans to send. Last night, the president declared u. S. Troops will fight to win the long war in singapore, then remains of some u. S. Sailors have been found aboard the damaged u. S. Ship. Divers discovered the remains in mccain. John while the search and rescue efforts continue, i thank our singapore partners, our malaysia partners and everyone who has responded with urgency, compassion, and tireless commitment. Mark authorities found an unidentified body. 10 sailors were missing after the mccain and oil tanker collided. Charlottesville has decided to cover statues of two confederate generals in black. It came after hours of anger fueled public debate in the wake of the violence earlier this month. Some blame the city council and mayor for not properly policing rally. Said thes president country is the target of world imperial powers. President maduro said the same powers that view them as a rebel in the 19th and 20th centuries are going against the nation. Venezuela has been caught in internal strife, pinning the president against an oppositional congress increasingly stripped of power. The government has been at odds with the white house after President Trump said he would not rule out a military option in venezuela. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Sorry for keeping you waiting. Top minor the world is in talks to sell u. S. Shale assets after public skirmishes with activist investors. We will hear from an analyst who says shale assets could fetch between 8 billion and 10 billion. From new york, this is bloomberg. Julia this is Bloomberg Markets. Im julia chatterley. Julie and im julie hyman. Julia after months of pressure, the worlds biggest miner, hp litan, announced it is in talks to sell u. S. Shale assets. Andrew mackenzie discussed the plans to exit u. S. Shale on Bloomberg Markets asia. For now, our strategy is a small number trade sales, but we are keeping the other options there so we can proceed with a now,n apple pays, but for we think a trade sale is best. How quickly can you make an exit . We have to be patient. We know what our businesses are worth and we will add to our businesses through our value and modest tech modest investment. On the other hand, we dont want to lack urgency and thats why we have other options in the wings if trade sales are too difficult to execute. Its interesting because we heard from a French Energy giant assets andto buy the one thing they said his u. S. Shale is not at the top of their wish list because it is too expensive. Foremostree first and about it being too expensive and does this concern you about finding available and interested buyers . We have sold some parts of our position over the last two years. This is not something that has happened in a sudden way. Half of the remaining half was already on the block. There were a lot of trades that happened. What generally happens on the trade sale is people get proper interviews involved and do proper assessments and they seem to do what its worth. They are dealing with different types of acreage that have gone into different productivity. Does the decision to go for a total exit was that the impetus from these activist investors . No. Working toward this two years ago and we made it clear to most investors that when we went around the world, we saw very limited opportunities to expand our business in oil. Werelt the margins and gas not going to be attractive to us relative to the other businesses we can invest in. We started pivoted back toward conventional oil and gas and that means at the same time we were cutting capital in shale, selling acreage the way i described it, we significantly cut back conventional oil and ive been able to announce some real successes there. Julia that was Andrew Mackenzie speaking on Bloomberg Markets asia. Joining us now is an analyst who shale assets could yield between 8 billion and 10 billion he joins us from denver. Great to have you on the show. Do you thinkally other potential buyers will be looking at . Guest good afternoon. The permian and eagle but are is assets and the biggest likely to be on the permian. Eagle for it is a bigger asset, but the upside potential within the permian should drive the value. Julia one of the potential purchases theres purchasers here is anadarko. How could they monetize this better . Guest the earlier comment on is u. S. Shale expensive is a fair one. Anadarko with its leverage ask like a checkerboard. In addition, anadarkos infrastructure that is being built out sits on top and next acreage, so they are elements that they are building and elements they are going to expand and they can hand in the acreagey put in into the anadarko position within the permian. Julia anadarko has been mentioned as a bidder. Who do you think will actually emerge . I think there will be a lot of interest and a natural gas assets will be more difficult to transact. We believe there is a situation when you look at the position , they are very fluid within each other. And its more consistent to develop consistent blocks of acreage and you might be able to have a true win win win situation for all three parties for anadarko, shale and the hp for top julia the company has left over a possibility of some kind of ipo option here. What do you think is the most likely . The fact that the prices are significantly higher if it had not bounced off a 12 year low. It is certainly the case that a sale would be preferred. It is clean and easy in the fastest amongst all of those. Is thatistic asset there are a lot of very high value Public Companies out there that are permian pure play focused and that will be a consideration the company will be looking at. What do you think bhp did not do right . Did they just not have the correct password patchwork of having the economy of scale or are there things they could have done differently . Guest i dont know if there is an element of not doing anything right. There has been a Seismic Shift and technological shift as everyone has been forced to go to 30 and back into the 40s and regenerate their businesses and that has in a challenge and it still an ongoing problem for many of the firms. It is a systematic change taking place. At the assets of highquality and certainly one that can be competitive in the broader economic landscape within global oil. Julie thank you so much. Still ahead, whats new in the new iphone . Our gadget guru joins us with an exclusive preview of apple latest smartphone. Julie this is Bloomberg Markets. Im julie hyman. Julia and im julie chatterley. Rex tillerson speaking at the state department on the president s plan for afghanistan. He says pakistan can play a key pakistan in getting afghanistan to the table. That hes hopeful there can be dialogue over the nuclear program. Time for the Bloomberg Business flash and a look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. The chevron chief executive officer is said to these that thing down after seven years. The transition is expected to be announced next month. Is a candidatean for the role. A Global Market downturn is morgan stanleyd have cited trading pattern shifts. Merrill lynch have cited a lack of reaction to earnings outperformance. Citibank is still projecting a late cycle peak before a bear market begins. The Womens Health unit says possible u. S. Buyers are considering a portfolio that could bring in up to 2 billion. The israeli drugmaker is looking to offload the unit to reduce that. Thats your business flash of eight. Julie what if another quant crisis came tomorrow . We will explore that western with aaron brown and a former chief officer for a qr capital management. Why didnt the president mentioned russia rearming the taliban . So we need tablets installed. With the menu app ready to roll. In 12 weeks. Yeah. The world of fast food is being changed by faster networks. Data, applications, customer experience. Which is why comcast business delivers Consistent Network Performance and speed across all your locations. Fast connections everywhere. Thats how you outmaneuver. Youre searching for something. Whoooo. Like the perfect deal. On the perfect hotel. So wouldnt it be perfect if. There was a single site. Where you could find the. Right hotel for you at the best price . There is. Because tripadvisor now compares. Prices from over 200 booking. Sites. To save you up to 30 . On the hotel you want. Trust this birds words. Tripadvisor. The latest reviews. The lowest prices. Julie from bloomberg World Headquarters in midtown manhattan, this is Bloomberg Markets. Im julie hyman. Commodity markets are closing in new york. Lets look at some of todays big movers. The big loser today oj down about 3. 5 at the moment. U. S. Orange shoes retail sales fell nearly 9 in july and early august. The usda says that crop looks potentially demand, high. Of crudest source could help erode the global glut. After the initial leg up, we have seen quite a bit of choppiness in the oil market today. Gold slipping as risk on sentiment takes hold. Investors are waiting for mario draghiwhere and janet yellen are scheduled to speak. A year before the financial crisis, there was a crisis that often gets overlooked. We are talking about a crash of funds in 2007. While the funds that back and address the shortcomings, there theso many new products on market that there are questions being asked about whether the industry is prepared for another crisis. Joining me is the head of Marketing Research management at a qr capital management. Of the face of wall street. A long introduction, but a worthy one. The universe has changed a great deal i hate that term because in terms of the number of investor products out there, it is a different world. Much it is, and its a underworld and for the first time, we have a lot of Retail Investors. Theres about a trillion dollars in quantum hedge funds and in etfs, helped by Retail Investors. Another one, im a retail manager and i just try to figure out how i wouldnt take a different path than i would in 2007. Julie what would that be . There has been this proliferation of quantitative driven strategies in the market, so one would think they are more important than ever, but you posit that it wont necessarily take down everything . Guest the big difference this time is there is less leverage. Retail products are primarily on ofered, so i think in terms effecting the market, it would not be huge. We could see a massive deleveraging and in one month, it would barely ripple. Is a lot oft do damage to people putting their money in these products, so anyone invested in these things should think about are you prepared to take a month where you underperform the s p 500 or whatever the benchmark is. If not, you are better off getting off now and putting it in a in an index fund. Julia you are saying the Liquidity Provision if you want to pull your money out or the ,ark to market, Retail Investor a more sophisticated investor is different question mark is different . Guest on the other hand, Retail Investors typically do not all move in one day. Even the massive mutual fund meltdown, we typically see it happening over a month or two. Julia what about for those who run these funds strictly go back to 2007 you can tell me if im wrong, but there is a greater degree of understanding of core belief in a quant adopt and andtion of some strategies they dont understand perhaps the drawdowns and the efforts of drawdowns that can be taken, but for someone who has incorporated math strategy, what difference does that make . It should be true. People who should know better are also surprised and sometimes unprepared for drawdowns. Sometimes Retail Investors get a bad name. Suddenly all those class all of those classes dont seem so great. One aspect of that is quant has gotten much broader. In 2007, it was

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