financials are big part of the reason why. on the s&p 500, that is as bank executives are speaking at deutsche bank and bernstein conferences this morning. -- market revenue is down 15% year-over-year thus far this quarter. rhyme moynihan said the trading revenue will decline year-over-year and wells fargo takinging they are seen .he foot off the gas recently all of that is combined to push down banking stocks. relays down nearly 3.5%. beating estimates and the company forecast above estimates, credited the outperforming's in earnings for demand in industrials, and earlier, and updraft but that appears to be dissipating as we get underway this morning only a half hour into the session. then we talk about oil as well to reassess decline the effect of opec production and the extension that will have. the number typically comes out when stat 10:30 and is actually going to come out thursday at 11:00 because of the holiday trading week. it will call for a third straight month and that will mean for of the five months for the past five months have seen .eclines for oil prices 10% this far this year. the declines we've seen since january of 2016. mark: we were higher a few seconds ago. basic resources. interesting mantra, it does not apply to the stoxx 600. consider this, the stoxx 600 declining each masons toy 13 rising an average of 1.5%. 9%, the gain is still up this month. the final trading day of the month. sterling today, earlier down by .7% against the dollar. sterling by .7% adding to the nervousness around the election. narrowing in the gap with a gapless five percentage points between the conservatives and the opposition labor party. .nd then a poll came out there is a difference which -- what a crazy day. since may callr, the election, prime minister may on the 18th of april are leans up by 2%. that was on may 19 on thectations they would win state majority. since friday, sterling is down by 1%. it leaves me to imply volatility -- applied volatility on expectations of swings in the next few weeks. the highest level since february but look at where we were freed >> it. that was a record high. got the 2015 election and we are4 referendum, nowhere near to those levels as well and that is worth aching into consideration. volatility rises for the high since february but nobody -- nowhere near those political events in the last three years. we can anticipated, 1.4%, and that is the white line 1.9% was the core inflation which stripped out volatile measures down 2.9% and sets us for the ecb meeting next week. buyer draghi playing dovish ahead of that meeting and maybe this justifies the dovish you and his comments. unemployment declining to 9.3% in the eurozone, encouraging data, lowest level since 2009. inflation is key as we look ahead to next thursday. vonnie: a lot going on in the next 10 days. trump.president donald make america great again -- to mention nations including the united nations agreed in 2015 to voluntarily reduce fuel emissions in an effort to combat time at change. london us now is just in reporting on the impact of trump going the u.s. from the paris accord. the latest is the president has made the decision and now we have an eu official saying it will go had either way with or without the u.s. but how damaging would it be to the goals were the u.s. to not participate? >> that is a couple of media outlets have reported he is set to pull out. he tweeted he has not made a decision yet. he is the master of social media. onhas a delay decision whether he will pull out and there is always a chance that are anti-climate change and people inside the administration briefing. be, asaging could it donald trump pulls the u.s. out of the climate accord. the u.s. is the world posse second largest and accounts for 18% of the world's -- the world's pollution. and in fact, it would mean actual physical impacts on the world and even the heat of the world, even with the u.s. in the paris accord. what would it the come a things like fossil fuel emissions and it is quite difficult to work out the science behind it though we wrote the story on it yesterday and today. enough to prevent catastrophic climate change. we are heading to three degrees warming by the end of the century. with the u.s. pulling out of paris, it does not sound like much but that could lead to rising sea levels, warming temperatures, and extinction of species which could be devastating to the planet. mark: other countries and limiting fossil -- limiting fossil feels? >> what we have seen in the last is galvanized by what trump has said about paris and they said we're sticking together and we saw the eu, china, and canada saying they will form impact on climate change, more committed than ever .o tackling climate change they seem to want to increase the pledges as much as before but how long can that last? maybe four years of trump? go buttrations come and eight years, people could really start to doubt whether they could do this. used as a carrot from developed to developing markets and that is an important consideration. >> understanding the paris agreement, that british companies will help deal with the effects of climate change. regardless of whether donald trump stays in paris, that we will not help poor countries tackle climate change, -- >> it took a long time to actually come to the paris accord. it is not like it was drawn up and companies signed up to it. what happens us the u.s. decides to pull out and goats own way? does it come up with another blueprint or does climate just get forgotten? >> it is hard to predict what will happen in the future. another thing we might want to look at is the way investors are reacting. saying he wants to revitalize the coal industry and build new coal-fired power plants and invest in new: spirit if investors react positively to be 60nd react, it could years and that lifetime and that could have a major impact. that could mean we have locked ourselves in. mark: an incredible debate for even trump threatened to pull out of the paris climate accord. and then, academics were warning of terrible scenarios. give us a taste of species extension, crop damage. know if i need to give you an example of it we are already seen worst effects of climate change. superstorm sandy hit the u.s. more intense storms and droughts and flooding. those kinds of things will become more frequently. -- more frequent. donald trump's mar-a-lago resort will be affected by climate change because it is low sea level rate. he will be able to build flood defenses because he has the money to do that. or theuntries like fiji marshall islands, they will see massive to put -- displacement of people. in indonesia, they're talking about finding a whole new place to put their cities. it will complete we transform the planet. mark: thank you. vonnie: and china planning a joint statement on the paris climate pact and we will continue to press ahead even without the u.s. let's check in with am a -- emma. inthe worst attack afghanistan since last summer. a suicide truck exploded today. as many as 80 people were killed and 350 mormon wounded. has claimed responsibility. afghan forces have been stuck in a stalemate with islamic state. in the k, labor -- the labour party meeting deciliter has put theresa may on the spot and he now says he will take part in a debate tonight on the bbc. sticking to her position that she would rather -- while in and confront on live television. he wrote it a little more than a week for the election. european central bank policymakers say it is too early to withdraw stimulus and now have more ammunition. inflation slowed down more than forecast. rate of 1.4%, the reading this year. president trump's's personal lawyer will refuse to cooperate with the congressional investigation into the russian marilyn. request for congress poorly phrased and not capable of being answered. it makes him --fake washington global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. conspiracy. close on his 20 -- mark: oil remaining under pressure today. investors where u.s. supply against opec cut. this is bloomberg. also, a lineup from the conference in russia tomorrow. do not miss an exclusive interview with the owner of 7:20 a.m.dependent, u.k. time, and of course, we -- 11:30the russian u.k. time. plenty more. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from new york and london, i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. let's get to futures and focus all falling today. curves will counter show production after the first time in four sessions joining us now to discuss, a senior market analyst. what is going on with oil today down by 3.4% further moving away from $50? >> what is going on is the market is realizing u.s. shale producers are still out in words and will stay out in force the 45 and between $50 mark and obviously above that they look good. and that is the problem the market is having. continued u.s. production keeps coming on even last week, we as long as more and a u.s. producer could make money at this, he is going to come -- drill in this economy. the markedly down the road and say, ok, they gave nine months to fix everything. that does not fix the immediate problem and that is what the market is counting on. increased demand throughout the summer, not necessarily in the month of may, and then we get to the point where that demand will offset the increased production in the u.s. mark: the opec deal for now counts for absolutely nothing. >> it counts for something in this -- in the sense of stability. we are not over $40 and not pushing under 42, but with the actions brought a market up? absolutely not. , in otherd a surprise words to cut production even further. maybe 2 million barrels per day. they did not deliver that. they delivered a nine-month moratorium, not enough in the current environment to keep prices from not coming down a bit. i am not looking for a collapsed. let's talk about goals. i know you say it is transitioning from a long-term bear market. what does that mean for the price? are think the prices currently caught between 1200 and the 1270 level. there is no breakout number i see on the chart just here. on theam watching yearly, monthly, and the daily week, 200 the 200 day, too much dear moving averages. if you spend time on the monthly and daily chart, the market is slowly transitioning to those key numbers. moving numbers are not a forward indicator. what the market will keep doing his wait until we get wage inflation. that is what we are missing. we have no wage inflation in europe or the united states and without the missing element, there is no story for gold. you cannot count on korea or the trump administration. they're unable to get the program's pass at this point. we need the continuation of seeing joblessness fall and eventually hoping that causes syndrome, which chases raucous, finished goods, and that creates the inflation story. great to see you. joining us for today's's futures and focus. still ahead, the pound today at the outcome of next week's election, as it appears complete -- increasingly uncertain. ♪this is bloomberg. vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets" from new york. i'm vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. -- sterling today, some projections of the election out some. ,loomberg's london bureau chief when is a poll not a pull, but a projection? we're going to confuse you. >> a new way of doing pulling. it is a projection to get a representative sample of people. the samples in each constituency are very small. that gives rise to potential errors. they say this is a snapshot of what is happening today not june 8. how many more of these will be have before the election? at 10:30 p.m. london time, we will get another one. >> they change very much daily. >> we will get that one -- in them we are called. best onver the poll say security and brexit and the economy, and in previous moreions, those have been than the poll numbers. she is talking a lot about leadership and seems to answer every question with who do you want -- talking a lot about the parliament he is relaxed yesterday. >> i will go to the debate tonight. and yes, he seems confident. makeover.ng a an attempt to make him look more -- --seems to be >> may not being there tonight. .> it is a risk cannot afford a second u-turn. i suppose the calculation made -- >> bloomberg's london bureau chief. hugee: that is infrastructure company, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> white house officials tell the associate press there may be caveats in what the president uses and that leaves it open to the possibility the decision is in final. the u.s. and almost 200 other nations voluntarily agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. it is the worst attack in the afghan capital since last july. it took place in areas of foreign embassies and presidential -- known has claimed responsibility. the family investment company has agreed to pay more than $3 billion to settle charges of corruption. investors will pay out the money over 25 years world's biggest leniency deal. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: jpmorgan and bank of america shares tumbling today as investors from both companies report trading revenue in the second quarter dropped significantly. what does significantly mean. >> bank of america was not quite that bad. running -- brian moynihan said it will be down 11% or 12% or so. a fantastic first quarter we not affecting. >> last year's's first quarter was terrible for all the big banks and the second quarter was a huge quarter and actually the wet quarter the entire year are seeing it down a little bit. one thing bank of america pointed out today is look at the first half, up 3-4%. a little bit is -- is the mismatch, a little strong this year and last year. it does not look like trading firms are doing better than they did last year. >> we are awaiting to hear what it will say. >> we have not heard from goldman sachs and they typically do not give us insight into trading numbers before they lowrt jpmorgan today cited .olatility you remember that in the first quarter, goldman sachs also cited low volatility for why their numbers for so that in the first quarter. if the markets have not changed much, that may not be a great indication for goldman. >> why does this not impact the first quarter but it does impact the second quarter? >> good question. i'm not sure we know exactly. a little more uncertainty now in the second quarter. there were a lot of excitement growth hereions and in the u.s. and globally. some of the excitement has tempered a little bit. be a reason the trading .umbers are not as robust vonnie: thank you. he covers big banks for us. a first glimpse of president trump's infrastructure plan in his budget proposal. a private sector in doing the in tech -- the contentious border wall. to weigh in on the ambitious plans p are first of all, congratulations. a 10 year anniversary for you down at the u.s. stock exchange. >> thank you very much and thank you for having me. vonnie: a lot of growth in that time. how has it changed in the next four years? >> we are optimistic we will see an infrastructure bill later this year. broad bipartisan board in washington, broad support at the state and local levels. support. taxpayer we will see an infrastructure bill later this year. >> there is a lot of support but allt to get through and sorts of legislation already being held up due to investigations and obstructionism and a lack of momentum in washington. does that concern you? >> of course it does. it does concern me. there is broad bipartisan support on both sides of the put both ofk we've --m together and we could >> what do you think will have the most chance? mike: certainly the proposal to allocate money to leverage private sector investment and the most important part of the bill. credit income housing done with two decades ago, we know it works. private sector investment and state and local investment. another part starting to get momentum is the excise tax. if we can adjust that for inflation, we produce a $27 billion additional fund. >> have you had conversations with the president? >> i have not had direct discussions with the present but had many with the second area of transportation and other members of the white house focused on infrastructure. very receptive to input from the we did produce a study for the treasury department back in december of benefit toprojects the community's -- >> could you give us an example of the kinds of projects? >> sure. the gateway tunnel is a great example. the tunnel to improve the flow of both people working in the city,nd in and out of the introducing the economy in new york as an example of critical infrastructure that needs to get done right now. border wall is definitely a project you will be involved in. how is that progressing? >> we provide those types of services for governments around the world. we have for decades. we are not currently involved in we didder project and not bid on the project. it was not in our sweet spot in the current format. vonnie: do you imagine it will go ahead? proposals -- were there proposals that might be reasonable? >> it probably will not be the .ize and the scale advertised >> congratulations again on the 10th anniversary growing 19,000 employees around the country. >> fantastic. in the country's mining industry, herbert smith global cochair, weighing in on how companies are being frozen out of talks for major regulatory changes. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from london, i mark barton. vonnie: quick takes, where we provide background to issues of interest. continuing to be at the center of swirling corruption allegations. when african national congress swept the power out of mandela in the first multiracial elections of 1994, the campaign slogan was a better life for all. segregation has ended but more than a quarter of the workforce remains unemployed and 20% still does not get enough to eat. six times as households that are discontent ing union strikes. meanwhile, holding onto power internationally. charges of corruption and it competence. he from crisis to crisis in march. pressure to appoint him to the polls. the only cabinet member -- it followed a november attempt by some to convince the national executive committee to oust over corruption. by topek, another bid leaders to force him from office. here is the background. the constitution can -- disenfranchised blacks to the national party took power in .948 denied them decent education and health care under policy known as apartheid. south africa endured decades of sanctions and they struggle before the government agreed to hold multiracial elections. a majority has been one in every election since. here is the argument. the can -- there government can point to some success. it has more than tripled in size in the past decades. grew just 1.3 percent in 2015, less than half the rate for all of sub-saharan africa. supported faced was -- to its role in ending apartheid. the party is nervous. one main opposition parties w percent -- more than 35%. the fiscal uncertainty in south africa is weighing on the mining industries, thrown out over regulatory changes to the country's mining charter. joining us now is the global africa practice. thank you for joining us. outhave miners been frozen of the consultation process? is not at all clear what the reason is. there were discussions between the mining industry and the government last year. there were some discussions earlier this year. it appears they have said this publicly since march there will be no discussions at all and in fact, last wednesday, the cabinet decided to adopt the mining charter three, being proposed by the department of mineral resources. obviously, anxiously waiting to fridayt will happen on or in a few weeks time. discussions for the last two months, not clear why the government has not engaged the industry on these issues. that is obviously a concern for the industry. mark: will it impact investment on a yearly basis it has fallen in the last couple of years. what will be the impact? >> it really depends on what comes out in the next version of the mining charter. if what happened last april, a version of the mining charter was published by the government without any consultation by the industry and then the government brings a discussion with the industry, one of the most problematic issues in the charter published last april is the once empowered always in powder -- always empowered principal went out the window. they have to be power themselves. also the non-ownership requirements were hardened and effectively, the charter was made retrospective because the donetransactions have been in the past will be restructured to comply with the new version of it. that has led to a lot of discussion between the industry and the government over a six-month time and it looks as though at the end of last year, there was some agreement between government and industry. that in recent times may not in fact be the case. in thecharter comes out form it was published last april, it would be very bad for the industry and the industry is really suffering from an investment strike. mark: do you think the revenue for community development is fair? >> it is very problematic. mining companies have been extremely concerned about. it is vague and the way it was written in the draft charter and the point was made correctly that that is a form of tax. it is not within the department of mineral resources competence to tax mining companies. that is reserved for treasury. that is one of the reasons the treasury has now weighed in. hopefully that proposal will be modified. inneed to see what comes out the final version. that is everyone's is concerned. people might argue the mining industry is still paying for the iniquities of apartheid. has it the for what happened during that time? >> it is an argument and not an unreasonable point. if you go back to the reconciliation commission, over 20 years ago set up by the mandela do in a stray she, the money -- very quite about what it had or had not done in the past. you could also argue we had two versions of the charter of the first one in 2002, the second one in 2010, and the industry has to make great deal about promoting black empowerment in the industry. the government's concern seems to be at has not done enough and needs to do more. the problem for the industry at the end of the day is capital is unsentimental and this is a long-term capital intensive industry and will go to where it gets the best returns and that is the challenge at the moment. that this uncertainty, changing the goal posts is not conducive to investment at the end of the day. mark: there is some controversy over the mining minister himself and links to the family. is he an honest broker of the process? >> that is the $64,000 question. there have been reports about that in the media recently. some leaked email correspondence , all of which raise issues around that. but i would not want to comment further until the process has progressed further. mark: thank you for joining us today. free hill global cochair. great interview, very interesting. inflation could weigh on the federal reserve monetary policy decisions but will weigh on it that is for sure. his outlook on economic conditions ahead of today's release. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg markets. more fed speakers today as core inflation continues to disappoint in the united states. hostedkathlyn bloomberg's tom keene earlier today about the data he is watching and also, if that is still even relevant. classes -- as someone who has observed the fed for 30 years, i because is very useful it gives me a good idea about what every participant around that table was thinking and when there are differences, it gives me a basis so i think it is very useful. growth,iew has been gdp for example this year, would be between two and a quarter percent. i think the unemployment rate will client -- decline further. it is not the only employment measure i look at. i look at you six, which i will come back to. in my own view, inflation will slowly but gradually over the next two or three years, not immediately, get to 2%. tom: within your wonderful book on leadership, it is implied through all of these books, confidence, one of the great mysteries on foreign relations, one of the great mysteries is where is business investment and the confidence. is it because the people you used to talk to, they cannot figure out where the risk-free rate is? are the distortions so great? >> the first part, business confidence right now is high. there is a lot of is this optimism. you see investment stronger than it has been in the last few years. the issue has been, that is great and can help gdp growth, but approximately 65 or 70% of the economy, the consumer. as the end of the day, businesses are more optimistic for several reasons but ultimately, everyone is watching the consumer, the primary driver of gdp growth. increased business investment helps and businesses right now are optimistic. while theyect now is are more optimistic than when you ask it business leader, do you see improvement in the business, often times, the answer is not yet but we are expecting it. tom: does that have to do with reinhardt, the duration coming out of financial crisis? it just takes time to heal? wherethere a new format american business is waiting to pull the trigger on the nostalgic investment we've remember? >> for me, i think some business anders are hopeful fiscal other policies might help improve gdp growth. that is part of it. in addition, though, some of the things that have been headwinds, which i do not think are going away, sluggish population growth, which has a big impact on consumer spending, and alsoish gdp growth and increasing disruption and new business models, increasingly, are displacing older ones, giving many business leaders pause, even though they want to invest in their business, they are not sure that the model they are investing in will be sustainable. i think that is a countervailing headwind. >> at was the fed president along with tom keene at the council of foreign relations this morning. you can track everything on bloomberg. >> coming right up her, we are following stocks. less than 35 minutes until the end of the session today. we have been up and down and up and down today. we are up by one quarter of 1%. record highs for the ftse 100. still down earlier. it is up now. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: 30 minutes left in the trading day in europe today p ryan mark artan. vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: here are the top stories we're coming from bloomberg and around the world. is nearing the decision. out of the paris climate accord. no longer appears to be a long shot. is slowing on both sides of the lannett. how concerned should mario draghi and janet yellen be? ridesharing start up uber hits another bump in the road where the head of the self driving car unit