president biden is seeking to show u.s. resolve against china but an ill-timed gaffe on taiwan risks undermining his bid to curb beijing's growing influence. whether intentional or not, the president provoked china with a vow to defend taiwan militarily. the white house walked back the remarks saying the president was only promising ukraine-like weapons aid. sales of new u.s. homes plummeted in april by the most in nearly nine years. purchases of new single family homes fell 16.6% to an annualized rate of $591,000. that number fell well short of estimates. buyers have been discouraged by the combination of rising prices and a higher mortgage rate. american households are about to get some unwelcome mail. some of the highest power bills they've seen. residential electricity rates are poised to climb even higher this summer. it's a combination of tight supplies of natural gas and coal, drought in the west and a nationwide forecast for extreme heat. barkleys estimates monthly bills will be more than 40% higher than last year's. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 chris. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. john: welcome to bloomberg markets. >> let's get a quick look at price action here. part of this is going to be a reaction to that rally we saw yesterday. the other part is going to be what we heard from snapchat. recession fears are driving today. with that yield picture comes the dollar picture. a weaker dollar. jon: meanwhile, continuing to have jitters out of the retail sector. a theme we've been watching the last couple of weeks. today once again you're still seeing that play out. abercrombie and fitch. what a selloff in that stock today. more than 30%. they're dealing with a concerning outlook and inflation woes. best buy with a pretty good quarter but still an outlook that was a reality check that we're seeing for a lot of retailers out there. awaiting numbers from nordstrom. later, petco bucking the trend right now. but arguably a more insulated business in an otherwise challenged retail environment right now. kriti: yeah. certainly a lot of factors to be keeping an eye on. outside of retail, though, snapchat and social media getting hit hard in the session. >> there's a real risk any of these social media platforms that are dependent on advertising revenues, that they're going to face a near-term headwind. the other near term headwind for tech, most of it's been priced in public markets and we see a lot of opportunity which i want to come back to. but the other thing that needs to play out before we get a full recovery here is private markets. we have not yet discounted the bad news that public markets have. that's still a couple of quarters away. jon: let's talk more about snap. social media plays and the overall volatility we are seeing in tech. joining us, in terms of the reaction, maybe you can walk us through this concern we are seeing from investors of snap inc.. >> now we know that app spend something highly cyclical and if there is a decline in macrogrowth, then you're going to see that reflected in the ad spending. so clearly snap didn't say that on their earnings call last month but today they came out and really took down their guidance. i think it also puts into question the whole social media ad spending category which wasn't there in the last big recession that we had in 2008 and 2009. in advertisers are pulling back spending, i think the first one to be cut is social media and not google search. which is more mature and i think advertisers get a higher r.o.i. out of that. kriti: let's bring new here. because this isn't just a tech story or social media story. this can be a macroeconomic story. one of the first things that goes is that ad spending. how much of this is reflective of those recession fears broadly? >> it definitely is. people are coming around to the fact that these earnings forecasts are going to start to come down. we've seen across wall street -- sorry, g.d.p. estimates have been slashed in half since the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year. and yet earnings estimates haven't come down at all. it's a matter of time, in my mind it was only a matter of time before this happened and now this is starting to happen. so as people are seeing a recession more likely, and as we go into the next quarter earning reports in july, that means i think in june next month people will start to see the slashing of estimates and that's why i think it's a reflection right now. it's not just from the tech area. john deere last week. this inflation issue is hurting markets. jon: to your point. if we were talking about snap today, would this market be finding another excuse? it just feels like people have been so reluctant to buy in this jittery environment. >> it could be. but one thing we do have to look at, i really think that today, the next day and half is going to be really important for the intermediate term picture for the marketplace. we have some really bad news today. not just out of snap but others lower than expected, home sales much lower than expected. and the one thing we haven't seen in a long, long time is a good reaction to bad news. and the markets are getting oversold. you look at some of these charts. the s&p, nasdaq, etc. if for some reason we can get a late-day rally, we've had all these late-day selloffs, but the last two days we've seen late-day rallies, if we see mething like that, it could give us relief. intermediate to long-term, people -- there's too many headwinds. you can pick one each day and it gives you a reason to be concerne iti: i'm so glad matt brought up this ideaf things being overdone bause that is a big esti in terms of what actuall happensor the broader economy and whether or not some of what snapchat is saying, is that overdone? they're talkin about perhaps missing their guideness that they had previous -- guidance that they had previously issued, but how much of that is based on fear and not actual data? >> any time there's a pullback in valuations, we tend to kind of go beyond what a normal expected pullback should be. and this time it's going to be no different. the key question is, when things come back, are advertisers going to aocate their dollars to snchat a facebook and alphabet or the tide has shifted in terms of just two or three platforms getting mourad spend dollars going forward? and i think the question lies or the testament lies in the engagement trend. so if snapchat is able to hold onto their user base, the engagement trends, while they're going through this down turn, they may continue to do well in terms of the ad dollars being allocated to their platform. but this is an engagement-driven business if you lose engagement, the ad spend will go away. jon: interesting. matt, let me throw it back to you as well. just in terms of trying to gauge that sentiment in the marketplace, when it comes to those beaten up technology stocks. >> yeah, i mean, things have -- sentiment has gotten quite negative. it's funny, i've been bearish on that stock market since the last quarter of last year. we saw in march, we do see bear market rallies along the way. so we need to be a little bit more careful of that. i do think the sentiment has reached a level and i just talked about some of the technical, oversold conditions, could give us one of those rallies, those head fakes that lasts for a couple of weeks. and squeeze the shorts and really give some people some more confidence. but i do think as we move through the summer, we're going to see lower lows. so people need to be kaivment it's just that -- careful. it's just that the fed -- massive liquidity programs, emergency level liquidity programs, that lasted long past the emergency was over, pushed asset price way above normal in fundamentals. therefore we're going to have to go through a further painful period. but in the long run, it's going to create some opportunities down the road. keep your head about you, things are going to work out in the long run. kriti: thank you both for your time. we're looking at the s&p down. the nasdaq down 3%. coming up, we're going to stick with that theme, it back challenges. we'll speak with the c.e.o. and founder of m.s.g. recovery next. this is bloomberg jon: this is bloomberg markets. for what it's worth. european central bank governing councilmember says the e.c.b. should consider kicking off its interest rate hiking cycle with a half point increase to show it's serious when it comes to the inflation fight. that obviously runs counter at least to a certain extent to what we have been hearing from the head of the e.c.b. here's more on what she's had to say earlier to bloomberg. >> we are at a turning point. we have all of the components in place for that. we are turning our back to negative interest rates. we are moving very lightly into positive territory at the end of the third quarter. and then of course we will calibrate, we will establish exactly by how much we want to do that. >> when you talk about no longer negative rates, has the market understood this could mean positive rates? >> when you're out of negative, you can be at zero, you can be slightly above zero. this is something that we will determine on the basis of our projections, on the basis of our forward guidance. i think that there are good reasons to believe that all three conditions will be satisfied in june and further on during the summer. >> where are we in the third quarter? could we be above zero in terms of interest rates? is that the trajectory? >> what i'm saying i'll stick to. we will be out of negative interest rates, most likely before the end of the third quarter. >> how do you see inflation developing from now? there's so many unknowns because of the war. >> you know, there are lots of forces and some of them counteracting against each other. you have the war, which in and of itself is an absolute drama and has massive economic impacts, not just in ukraine and eventually in russia, but for the rest of the world. we have energy prices which have gone up significantly and present a big chunk of inflation. we have food prices. i mean, there's a whole series of things that are weighing on growth, down, and pushing inflation up. >> how likely is it goes into recession? >> we don't have that baseline. we have the negative, it's ad verse, various alternatives there on the basis of hypotheticals such as biocot of oil -- boycott of oil, interruption of gas supplies. for the moment we're not seeing a recession in the euro area. kriti: this is such a historic moment here. christine lagarde saying we're not going to see negative rates in regards to the e.c.b. this is fueling some of the euro strength, dollar weakness we're seeing, at a time when the market is laser focused on whether or not e.c.b. and the other central bankers are behind the curve. as well as what this are they going to do between closing the spread at a time when of course we know the famous comments from christine simply saying, she's not here to close the spread. it's interesting that we're witnessing all of this at once. jon: and look at the price realities. they talked about the invasion of ukraine and obviously in europe they continue to watch what's happening. in oil prices here in north america, we go beyond what's happening in oil and say the inflationary impacts but obviously for christine lagarde, being able to zero in on the price pressures beyond oil is something they're going to want to keep watching and the underlying demand as well and the concerns on that front as a reason to perhaps take more time on rate hikes. but make no mistake, right, there's clearly a growing debate among e.c.b. officials on the pace of rate hikes going forward. kriti: it's really fat fascinatg you say that. the u.k. we're going to stick with that theme of what if something were, especially with speculative assets coming up, we're going to talk with the c.e.o. of m.s.g. recovery and continue the conversation. this is bloomberg jon: this is bloomberg markets. we were talking earlier about the weakness we've seen in technology stocks. growth obviously not getting much market attention these days. same goes for -- when you look at the performance over the last year, let's say compared to the s&p 500, we know the weakness we've already seen and that broader index, but it's even much more pronounced when you look at the so-called the spak index this year alone down about 50%. so an avenue that was seen as a new opportunity for companies to come to the public market for the most part has really just been public pain so far. kriti: m.s.p. recovery is tumbling over 60% after its trading debut. that's after completing the lion heart acquisition. so what does this company actually do? health care payments recovery firm. this is important when it comes to what the players are in insurance. we're going to dig into what the company actually does in just a moment. jon: and look. i think this spac window we saw open the door for a lot of interesting business discussions. in this case you're right, a business about acquiring medical claims and targeting a flaw in the system. but obviously the general tone of the markets now for spaces has changed quite quickly. kriti: let's stay with the spacs story and talk to the c.e.o. of m.s.p. recovery. congratulations on going public. let's start off with a simple question. explain what your company actually does. >> thank you. and i appreciate the invitation. what m.s.p. really is, it started as a company that discovered a very huge flaw in the way that medical claims were paid as it relates to the actual payer. primarily where the federal government was paying claims that it didn't owe. these were claims of people that were involved in auto accidents, slip and falls, worker compensation claims. a lot of pharmaceutical, medications that went bad, or medical devices. and the government loses billions of dollars as a result of this because medicare and medicaid are supposed to be the payers of last resort. something very interesting happened when we were doing that. we found a huge flaw and data systems in the entire medical processing of claims. the entire health care expenditure year after year is bordering $4 trillion. out of those $4 trillion, our data found that only about 30% of those claims are actually properly documented. meaning that they have the correct diagnosis code and other codes and the remainder of them have issues as it relates to who the proper payer was supposed to be. so we designed a very sophisticated i.t. system and currently when we announced our merger back in july of last year, we had about $15 billion in recoverable claims and we predicted that five years, starting after january 1, 2022, we would ingest an additional $5 billion. so what happened is between july and the end of last year, december 31, 2021, we actually ingested about $70 billion. before we even started. so we've seen substantial growth in new business. we have a number of settlements in process for a lot of the big primary payers. so when we talk about spacs, spac is just a way to get to the markets. i think at the end of the day you really have to look at the company itself. i think sometimes you almost get joined in with a concept as opposed to looking at the actual company itself. jon: right. obviously you made a reference to the analytical tools that you have used to find those medical records that obviously could be worthwhile to pursue. just in terms of this environment, though. every day seems more uncertain. in terms of your own revenue projections, what can you tell us about what you're going to have to watch very closely in the days and weeks ahead? >> so we're in a business that's actually very good and many people don't really understand. we're not correlated to anything that has to do with interest rates or inflation or anything like that. medical bills are paid day in and day out. it doesn't matter what the economy is. we're talking about the federal government, medicare, the state government, medicaid, so there's really no ups or downs for us when it comes to that. it could be a great market in terms of low interest rates and low inflation. and we still are projected to do the same. so we really don't have that kind of activity in the marketplace. i think more important than that, we have a very sophisticated technology called life wallet, which we designed and launched in january of this year, and we first started with u.s.-based only. we've now expanded into mexico. we signed a very big contract with mexico. with a company. so we see that our business by way of what we've predicted is still right on point. and we don't expect anything to change. in fact, we've seen a lot more -- kriti: i'm sorry, but we have to leave it there. we're short on time. we want to thank you so much for taking the time. m.s.p. recovery founder and c.e.o., john ruiz. this is bloomberg mark: now keeping up you to date with news around the world. i'm mark crumpton. police in new york city are on the hunt for this man. 25-year-old andrew abdullah who they say is, quote, a brooklyn resident with an extensive violent criminal history. abdullah is wanted in connection with the fatal shooting of a 48-year-old passenger on the q train sunday morning. the attack was unp