Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160713

That stand out to me are that tossures were modest moderate, basically that there was no movement in selling prices. Reallyation has been modest. Inflation pressures have been very modest. We have full employment, and this is really taking time for wage pressures to start building, which should be a game changer this year because as people see labor shortages and wage pressure should build for more and more u. S. Workers. David i remember the last time deja vu came out, words of the day were modest and modestly. We are seeing that again in this report. Absolutely. That is positive because would bring some comfort to the fed, to the fomc that Growth Continues despite some headwinds from the bull market and some gyrations in Foreign Exchange markets. Domestic growth is key for the u. S. Economy. The fed relies on the consumer the continued recovery, and we should see more of the same in the next fed beige book. David when you look at the beige book, what is the first thing you will be looking for . I think consumption because it is really key or the fomc. His year consumer and residential investment really matters. There will be headwind in terms of the strong dollar. There are some pockets of weakness in the manufacturing sector, but overall, the economy should be ok. David thank you. We will go now to julie at the markets desk. Julie lets look first at the bond market. I want to look at the 30year because we have what has been deemed a successful 30year. Uction today the 30year yield pushing lower by 4 basis points. There was not much reaction or deviation from that direction when these comments came out from the beige book. I do want to mention that that auction had a record low yield for a 30year auction. That is one measure of the demand we saw for the auction. Lets look at the 10year as well in the action we are seeing as well. After that gain of yields we had seen, we see this pullback, also in 4basispoint decline, and we saw an acceleration of that decline to some degree after the results of that 30year auction. Course, the prospective is both of these are a look at the bloomberg. This is a simple chart of the. Ield you see the slump we have seen, and even though there has been a pop in yields over the last week or so, they are still near record low levels for both of those. The wake of the beige book and generally the action we have seen today, it has not in much changed. A little bit of a pullback after the record close from the dow and s p yesterday. The nasdaq, which peaked in the green for the year looks like it is back below that level once again, the dow off by about a point on the day, and if you look at the groups on the move within the s p 500, we got energy that is really the big drag here. You see a mixed picture, but energy is the biggest drag. Oil prices have slumped in the wake of todays inventories report. Keeping things afloat, telecom, consumer staples, utilities back on top. More details of what is going on with oil and commodities at 2 30 when they close. David formal reaction on the beige book, i want to bring in the number two forecaster of the u. S. Economy. You are processing all of this as we are, sort of in real time. Looking for indications of consumption figures, what are you looking or . I usually look at the first line first. David why . Probably at the top, there is a little bit of supervision. The first line says continue to expand at a modest pace, which is similar to last time. Not a whole lot different. From that perspective, it is basically more of the same. From there, look for what they are saying about employment, real estate, manufacturing, consumer spending. Overall, i am not sensing a big change, although, frankly, its always limited how much information you can get from the beige book. Vonnie and it was all done by july 1. Some saying manufacturing. Ctivity was mixed real estate activity continued to strengthen. Is that good, then . He is. This is part of the first paragraph, Manufacturing Activity was mixed, but generally improved. If you look at the survey, which is more reliable than the beige book because it is a hard number and based on actual data rather than anecdotes, manufacturing is an index. While it is still pretty low at 53 or so, it has moved up in the last couple of months, and again, consistent with some improvement, so there has been positive improvement. David i know we have a fiveyear chart of unemployment in the u. S. We have seen that diminishment. Do you think the fed is satisfied with where that rate is now . You listen to them and they say they have just about accomplished full employment. If you take the numbers literally, we are at a 4. 9 Unemployment Rate. Longer run normal level, which is basically their way of saying full employment is 4. 8 , although they will follow that with a caveat that involuntary parttime employment is on the high side. Maybe some of the decline in the Participation Rate is cyclical as opposed to secular, but they are almost there. If it is not quite there, youre pretty close, and the net is the fed does not want to see the Unemployment Rate fall much more than a couple of tenths from where we are right now. Assessmentt is your for the Federal Reserve toss next move . I certainly think the next move is up. I have been going in december. Certainly fed officials have extremely cautious, dovish, and really everything needs to line up almost perfectly for them to pull the trigger, for sure, so i do not have been going until december, but after the employment report last week, the fact that jobless claims are showing no sign of an uptrend, the fact the equity market is up to a record high more than reversing the brexitrelated losses, i think september is certainly back in the discussion as a possibility. They will not go in july for sure, but we will see what the data do between now and the september meeting, but september is certainly a possibility. David what do you make of the number . The month before everyone is stepping back. You look at the average, might be anomalous, and we get this great number last month. How much credence do you give it . The trend, of course, has been over 200,000. I think there has been some net slowing. Suspect it actually overstates slowing, and we had a very mild winter. There was probably less seasonal layoff activity during the winter and less seasonal rehiring during the spring, so i think that 147 overstates the slowing a little bit, and a look at claims and do not see much evidence of weakening, so the net of it to the volatility is ,ertainly over 150,000 a month probably over 175,000 month, toch is more than enough keep the trend down. We had a story about a drift economy. Do you see the u. S. Getting some velocity and maybe escaping that drift economy . Not quite sure what you mean by jury. Vonnie growth around 2 or less, not more. That has been the trend. So far, if you look at real gdp, it has averaged around a 2 rate. If you look at gdr, it has averaged around 2. 4 . In this cycle, it has been more than enough to bring in the Unemployment Rate. Thatly, i do not see changing. Enough to keep unemployment coming down, and as we just talked, unemployment looks to be in the ballpark of. Ull employment there are signs it is bubbling and picking up a little bit. Wage numbers have all accelerated a little bit in the last year. If you extrapolate and say unemployment keeps falling, it will only put more upward pressure on inflation. David thanks so much for being here. Via lets check in on the news. Mark crumpton has more. Mark british Prime Minister theresa may says she and her cabinet will address the concerns of average families, not the privileged few, after traveling to Buckingham Palace and accepting Queen Elizabeths invitation to form a new government. May gave her first Public Comments as Prime Minister outside number 10 downing street. May following the referendum, we face a time of Great National change, and i know because we are great written that we will because challenge we are great britain. As we leave the European Union, we will forge a new, positive role for ourselves in the world as we will make britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for every one of us. That will be the mission of the i lead, and together, we will build a better britain. Mark may takes over from David Cameron who resigned after that referendum she spoke of. Cameron said it was the greatest honor of his life to serve as Prime Minister. Donald trump visited mike pence in indianapolis today as speculation continues the likely republican president ial nominee will choose the indiana governor as his running late. People familiar with the matter say mr. Trump plans to announce his choice on friday. Governor pence joined mr. Trump at a Campaign Rally last night in the state. A former democratic senator says he will make another run for the indiana, a seat in development that could dramatically improve the partys chances of winning back the vacant seat and Senate Control along with it. Democrats have been courting bayh for over a year to run for held by a retiring senator. A federal Appeals Court has denied tom bradys attempt to get a new hearing on his deflate game suspension. A court said in april nfl commissioner Roger Goodell was within his power when he suspended the star quarterback for games for his role in a scheme to dr. Footballs used in a playoff game. Bradys remaining hope is to appeal to the u. S. Supreme court. News 24 hours a day powered by more than 600 journalists and analysts in more than 2100 countries. David coming up in the next 20 minutes, we will take you to 10 downing street as to reason they becomes britains new Prime Minister. And tech giants like this book are writing a new law that sets limits on the Ways Companies can use biometric data. Its time now for our latest Bloomberg Business , a look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. Credit squeeze changed its Compensation Structure for some ,f its senior london bankers eliminating some of the socalled allowances that have come under regulatory scrutiny. Other lenders have made similar moves in response to European Union moves. Companies are looking to complete negotiations by mid august of this year. If no agreement gets released, they will move to shut down and decommission the Nuclear Plant in january 2016. Vonnie amazon says sales for its Second Annual prime day promotion were up more than 65 from a year ago. Amazon created it to get customers to sign up for its 99 prime membership. David it has been reported the United Kingdom has a new Prime Minister. Theresa may arrived at Buckingham Palace earlier to accept the invitation to form a new government. She gave her first remarks as Prime Minister of the u. K. May theister government i lead will be driven not by the interest of the privileged few, but by yours. We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives. When we take a big call, we will think not of the powerful but you. Took new calls, we will listen not to the mighty, but you. When it comes to taxes, we will prioritize not the wealthy, but you. When it comes to opportunity, we will not entrench the advantages of the fortunate few. We will do anything we can to help anybody, whatever your background, to go as far as your talents will take you. David first task forming a new cabinet. That is happening right now. For more, we to Ryan Chilcote. I understand we have breaking news. Ryan we have just learned formerhammond, the secretary of this country, has just been appointed britains finance minister. He was defense secretary before he was foreign secretary. Just within the last 60 seconds, theresa may has made her first appointment since becoming Prime Minister, announcing he will be the countries finance minister. Very interesting. That makes you wonder who will get the job of foreign secretary. I can tell you also within the last several minutes, we have seen boris johnson, the former mayor of london and perhaps bestknown more recently as one of the most vocal proponents of brexit, enter the building. He has long wanted to be Prime Minister himself. That is a bit of an open secret here in the u. K. , and it was leading a campaign to become the head of the conservative party and Prime Minister wind one of his very own Campaign Managers actually betrayed him on the last day of nominations to launch a leadership bid himself. What post he might get we dont know, but very interesting. We expect to get a lot of appointments in the next several minutes. We were told we should get a handful today. Vonnie it is a bit of a blow to george osborne. Tell us more about Philip Hammond, currently former secretary. Was he proor antibrexit . Ryan he was a reluctant remain or, as they say. He campaigned reluctantly for the u. K. Remaining in the European Union, like theresa may who is now the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but he has long had his doubts about the eu. He has been a eurosceptic, as they say. We do not know who is going to. Ave which post yet we do not know what the division of responsibilities is going to be, but clearly, the countries finance minister is going to have a big role in negotiations with the European Union, and he is well suited to that job, at least in terms of his background, because he was foreign secretary. He knows many of the leaders of the eu countries, and its going to be crucial for the chancellor maintainchequer to access to the single market. That is what they really want here in the u. K. Caps on migration, many of the people here want to take their laws they want to, at least here in the city and in london, keep that access, and he should be in a position to do that. David Ryan Chilcote recapping the news we just got. A whirlwind day for theresa may. We heard a bit of her speech at the top. What else have we heard from her about the direction she intends to take this government and . She talked almost exclusively about social justice, saying that her government would be a government causesuld champion the of the working families. Shes trying to get away from the perception that the conservative party is just in it or the privileged, or the elite. It was one of the things we heard in the referendum, people not just wanting to exit the European Union, but set up with a payment, which they see as elitist. Clearly, she is trying to grab that middle ground. Waiting for more names, more cabinet appointments from theresa mays government. To recap, Philip Hammond is the new u. K. Chancellor of the exchequer. George osborne has resigned and is no longer part of the briti government. David still ahead, who owns your fingerprints . Why Silicon Valley wants to squash and of skier illinois law. You may think that your own fingerprint or retinal scan in other words, your biometric data is not your own, but Silicon Valley says not that double and tech giants like facebook are fighting a littleknown law that says how companies can handle that data. You can read all about it in the latest Bloomberg Businessweek. You are saying that my eyes are not my own . Im saying maybe they are being used in ways you have not given them permission to be used. Give us an example. All these Companies Use our biometric data. Facebook and google, who are subject to these lawsuits, are geography,our facial and they use that to create tag suggestions. These lawsuits claim they have not given proper consent to users who may or may not want them to do that and want to know exactly what is going to happen with that data after a certain time. They should not be able to just collect it and do whatever they want with it. David it seems like when you go on facebook, the algorithm is itking for faces, not doing in any sort of direct way. Talk about the grave consequences of losing this information. Would biometric data, it really is singular and cannot be replaced. You could change your fingerprints with surgery or something, but we know how hard it is for banks and other us the two shins and companies to save yard our basic financial data. You cannot be sure they will be able to safeguard this stuff. Once it is out i mean, you can change your Social Security number, but it is very hard to change your retinal scan. David where do things stand legally . This illinois law is being challenged, and it is one state. This only one other law i know of, a texas law, that is being used. They do not want to come locate their business model. David appreciate it. You can read the story in the latest issue of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine. Commodity markets are closing in new york. Julie has been watching some of the commodity movers, and weve had one or two today. Julie lets start with oil prices, really affected by the mornings inventories report. Holding pretty steady and then down off a cliff after we got that report, so it initially took a leg lower and then continued and it has been bumping along the bottom. To date into it, lets look at the bloomberg. Change e weekly things like heating oil, and other words, the refined product. If you look at oil and go to this side of the chart, you sought a drawdown in inventories. Anything below it is a negative change, but at the same time, you had an increase in gasoline inventories. This implies demand for the refined product is not as strong, and that is what put pressure on those oil prices. We have been watching copper as well today, copper having a big game today, the most since april, up about 1. 25 . There does seem to be optimism surrounding centralbank action to keep growth afloat. You also had china coming out with its copper inventory number. That is something that would be bullish for copper prices. The only groups within commodities today showing positive action. David thanks so much. Next guest says it is time to sell stocks and invest in commodities. Joining us now, founder and partner of Investment Firm eam. You say sell stocks. Why . They are going up. Victor well, they do go up and down. Everything should be looked at risk reward, and the reward is much smaller than the risk. The dow and s p did make new highs yesterday, but many indices are not making new highs. Have that, you have a major broadening top. Wheres the news to drive stops higher . David im curious what your going forward. What is your forecast for the year . Victor commodities are really easy to predict. David famous last words. Victor no, but they are. Even though inventories may week, you have tremendous inventories, tremendous supply, and you are not going to get any more demand if you have the euro and u. K. In limbo until they settle brexit. It just came from a 110 quarter, so you really do not have growth around the world to stimulate new demand. You have a lot of supply, very , price goes down. Why would you buy, then . You recommend buying oil and other commodities. Victor i recommend buying commodities as an aggregate, just like you by the s p. Im not here to say by oil, per se. I think if you have a portfolio, included. Be of course, i and a human being. I could be wrong. My favorite things to owner gold and silver, but that is for other reasons. Vonnie gold has obviously had a nice run these days. We showed a second ago the bloomberg commodities index. It is on the rise, but it depends on the underlying commodities. Which commodities specifically do you see having run room here . Victor gold and silver. The reason is because of what could potentially happen if starts to getion a referendum and pull out and you have a disintegration of the eu. That is a huge chaos potential problem, and that is where people go into gold. You also have talk of the cash society, further negative Interest Rates, more stimulus. Gold loves that, and so does silver in this case. Vonnie gold being a safe haven, why would it love more qe . That would suggest banks will support any kind of slowing we are going to see around the world, so there would not be a need for safe havens. Victor it would not. I do not know about you, but i would not consider what the dead has done when you add up the debt centralbank buying and all of the stimulus, meaning zero Interest Rates for going on as beingrs, successful. They have to keep doing it. Look at japan as the best example. It has not worked. It has kept us alive, but it has not worked, so what happens when you keep doing it . You get an event like brexit for example but much worse, and its a house of cards . David appreciate it. Thank you very much. Lets go now to brazil on the eve of hosting the olympics. The state of Rio De Janeiro is broke. The governor is selling his own summer residence and the idyllic island upon which it sits. It could be a bargain. We go to our rio euro. Talk about this island and property and what it says about the current state of rio finances. This is a palatial place. Who might put the money down to get this place . Its tough to say who will buy this. The pension fund i went there with this manager, and he does not think he will sell to an individual. Market liquidity is really limited. He thinks it could be a spa or hotel or rehab clinic. Really a peaceful place. It is beautiful. It is still open to a possible buyer. Its really an clear who could actually step up and take this. Vonnie the real has had its troubles. David he went there and said he had no idea how much he could sell it for. I talked to the state heritage a house, and she said like that would be 30 million , but thats not accounting for the island it is on, and its 50 acres. Its really tough to gauge what the cost is going to be. They will put out an announcement and accept bids publicly, and whoever comes in highest gets to take the governors house. David you are right the property has its challenges. The fact that it is a historical site must be chief among them. David she talked about the perimeter wall facing the sea having some issues. The bricks crumbled a couple of years ago. Its not just a matter of sourcing the bricks, but you have to go and find original bricks from the same era and do chemical testing to prove they are from the same era. Cost is the organ built in. That would cost 80,000 or 90,000 to fix. A germanmade organ. David last question about security. You wrote about how security personnel was greeting people at the airport warning them of how unsafe the city is. Use the sale of this house to give us some context about the dire situation and what it might mean for security. This is representative of a bigger trend in real estate. This will help real fix its financial hold, but the point is its in such trouble that that is one of the many things it is doing. They already cut their Security Budget by a third. They have then delaying payments to active police and survivors as well. They had a request from the of a bailout, basically, so they could pay for security. Through the olympics, security bes not seem like it will such a concern because there will be so many boots on the ground, but once that money is run through, not really clear what is going to happen afterward. David thank you very much. In front of a beautiful shot of the mountains. Lets check into the headlines. Mark crumpton is in our newsroom. British Prime Minister theresa may has started assembling her new government, according appointing philip chief. As treasury expected to shuffle several top jobs and appoint a new minister in charge of britains exit from the European Union. Hillary clinton has a threepoint lead over donald trump in a head to head general election matchup according to a report citing the latest poll. Mrs. Clinton leads trump 4239 in the survey taken from july 5 the fbi director recommended mrs. Clinton not face prosecution for her email use as secretary of state. Louisiana authorities are searching for a fourth suspect in connection with a pond shop robbery links to a wider plot to kill law enforcement. Eight handguns and a bb gun were stolen. One suspect reportedly told police he was looking for bullets to attack officers in the that and rouge area. Police say they consider the threat to be credible. An american was gored and five others injured in the next to last day of the running of the bulls. One bull crashed into a group of runners close to a fence, goring a man in the thigh and lifting at least two others in the air. 12 he will have been gored since the run started july 7. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Back to you. Vonnie thanks. Still ahead, donald trump pays a visit to the home of indiana governor mike fence and speculation grows. Vonnie heres what were watching. Models and Global Economy concerns are being blamed for limited orders of this years airshow in the u. K. Airbus and boeing [indiscernible]. Oth companies when deals david thou post is making money again after losing money. It rose about 1. 25 percent in june, bringing the years gains to a person with knowledge of the company. A call for a financial transaction tax on wall street, but likely president ial nominee Hillary Clinton is not taxing big x, but instead wants to. Arget High Frequency traders david the Republican National Convention Starts monday, and donald trump may be on the verge of naming his running mate. He was seen arriving at the home of indiana governor mike pence. There was speculation the governor could be the top contender for the position. For more, we go to Bloomberg Politics managing editor, john heilemann. Your partner in crime, mark halperin, had his cell phone out to capture donald trump arriving at the governors mansion. From all this, do we assume tenses the front runner . John i dont know that that is true. For a moment this morning, when it was clear trump was meeting with pens and that his family was there, it all seemed like this was obviously headed toward tense, but now we know Jeff Sessions and Newt Gingrich are quietly well, aides are saying do not count out Chris Christie. Trump saying he has two for three or four people in his mind. I think we are in exactly the same place we were yesterday, which is we are in the final stages. There is likely to be an announcement friday, and theyre now is a genuine shortlist. We are pretty confident we know who is on the short list, but who was the front runner . Who will end up the vp or the running mate . Still do not know that. Vonnie and of course, why wouldnt trump make a meal out of this decision and make us all anticipate . What would pens bring what would pence bring . John the premise of the question is a little bit flawed in the sense that trump has a big problem with conservatives. That is probably the main problem he is trying to solve. For him to win, he has to basically consolidate all the republicans in the country and get, like, 95 or an of republicans to be behind him and find new vote that mitt romney and others have not been able to find. His weakest support has been among moderate republicans, not conservative republicans, so putting mike pence on the ticket would hopefully be an act that would reassure conservatives who do not think he is a genuine conservative and maybe bring them over to his side, help them consolidate the party and then go at hunting for new votes he would need to bring in. David what is going on . Is this an audition . Is it about chemistry . Will we expect the same thing with Chris Christie . What is donald trump trying to find out at this point . John its a really good question. Obviously, all of these people have long records in politics, something that trump said he was looking for in a vp. He has said that off and on, that he is looking for someone with legislative executive experience. All those guys have a combination of those things, so he knows what they are about. One of the questions every candidate goes through is how comfortable they are with this person, how happy they will be Standing Shoulder to shoulder with them, how confident they are that they will defend them aggressively. Another thing trump said in the last 24 hours was he feels like. E needs an attack dog i think a lot of it does come down in the end to personal chemistry, and trump does not know any of these guys all that well. He probably knows christie better than he knows the others. He is probably trying to think of what he thinks of them and if they clicked. The chemistry factor ins up mattering almost more than anything else. David we heard elizabeth war and will be speaking early in the democratic convention. Some folks say do not read too much into that. What is your read on the scheduling on the democratic side . John my reading is it is 100 meaningless. If you were going to pick elizabeth warren, the first thing you would do to throw off the scent is say she is speaking first at the convention. Every four years, that the candidates, the nominees go to extraordinary lengths to play games with all of us and try to play hide and seek, try to play three card , try to reserve the element of surprise to get us confuse. Im not saying i think more and will be on the ticket im not saying i think war in warren will be on the ticket, but again, if you were going to put her on the ticket, the first thing you would do to confuse people would be to do what they did just now. David thank you for joining us. Be sure to catch john and mark tonight, speaking with former clinton advisor james carville. Mayor of London Boris Johnson has been appointed u. K. Foreign secretary. The news out of london coming out by bit. Johnson obviously was a brexit her, but maybe a reluctant one or one who did not fully believe in what he was campaigning for, suffered. Forts this is bloomberg. Amazon shook off an early Technical Glitch to deliver record sales for its Second Annual prime day. The company said tuesday sales surpassed prime day 2015 by more than 60 worldwide. Corey johnson joins us from San Francisco with more. We were talking about this yesterday. We had some data and talked about how amazon released numbers that it might want to release but not all. What do we know today about what this holiday and i put that in pretty big quotation marks what it means for the market. Third quarter is always the slowest quarter. They have been able to draw a lot of sales into her they are pulling sales forward, and some people are probably waiting to buy things on amazon, but we know it was a significant day for them. How significant, we do not know. We expect they have done more than that maybe substantially more than that. Comparisonsing the to last years numbers were a lot better. When the company cannot with , the sales driven on that day, but importantly, what they do is in for size that prime business. What we know is that prime consumers on amazon spend more than your average amazon consumer, so maybe you did not need the crop. Yesterday. Maybe you were not one of the 30something thousand people who s yesterday. A maybe you were like me and woke up wondering why you bought that hazmat suit it was so cheap, but nonetheless, it got people to subscribe to prime for the first time, people to use pridemore, and that opens up a whole set of services that keeps them locked in as customers. When will we know how many subscribers they brought in the . We will not. The firms that monitor web traffic and try to figure out what is happening were really low in terms of trying to figure out what was going on. To tell i think is doubtful going forward. They might get the direction right, but the numbers are kind of wrong. It is a really important part of amazon as we look toward its future. I keep the ginning amazon video because i think it is so important. Amy award show therent, bosch jessica stuff jones, daredevil, and all the stuff. The company has spent 2. 5 billion this year on original programming to keep customers in the amazon tent, to get them to use prime and amazon. David no indication of how sticky this is. In other words, if you buy that hazmat suit, theres no indication you will go back and buy other hazmat suits going forward. Cory i dont see why i dont need one in every color. The reason is to get people to do the regular shopping on amazon, to get their Grocery Shopping on amazon, to get used to that twoday delivery or sameday delivery in places where thats offered. One of the things they sold a lot of yesterday, the most ever, was there amazon echo, a device that has people shopping in home using voice commands. That is a whole big thing to get people to use more amazon. To break thatant amber rose is going to be home secretary in the u. K. Vonnie welcome to bloomberg markets. David from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, good afternoon. Vonnie one hour left in the trading day in the u. S. , shares fluctuating at alltime highs. Can more records be set . We all of the action. David china used to be a Profit Center for young brands, but not anymore. We will find out how that is dragging down the rest of it. Vonnie lots of new members of the u. K. Government being announced in the last hour including Philip Hammond and boris johnson, the new u. K. Foreign secretary. We will be live in london. David lets head to the markets desk for the latest. We are swinging between gains and losses. We are seeing the s p 500