Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160408 : compa

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160408

Lets look at where the numbers stand right now. The s p 500 the biggest gainer. Up gainer the nasdaq has been flirting with negative territory in the flat line. Its up minimally right there. Lets take a look at whats happening with currencies as well, in particular with the u. S. Dollar and the japanese yen. Kinds been a very seesawed of day, a volatile kind of day for the currency. You can see that a weekend over the course of todays trading session. We started hit right back where we started, around the late morning hour or so. A bit of more weakening and thats where we stand right now, one dollars will get you 108 yen. Lets also pop into my bloomberg, and i want to show you the Sector Health of the s ps 10 sectors, this is the imap function. Eight out of the 10 sectors of the s p are trading positively, energy has been the biggest leader all day, up. 2 materials up 1 . Now, talking about energy, i want to talk about oil, and see where that has gone. We are seeing it back up near the highs of the day, up by more than 6 . Close up byack to more than 6 there. There is hope in global production, potentially being frozen by opec member countries, and that could come out as early as may be seven or eight days from now. We will have to wait and see on that, carol. Carol when we start off with a rally, we kind of start to come undone. I really like the imap ramy function. Ramy ramy function. A lot of names to talk about, in fact. Take a look at the consumer threshold, down 2 10 of 1 . Lets look at the biggest laggard on the s p in terms of retail. Right now is seeing a decline of 13 or so. It had been as low as 14 , samestore sales fell 6 in march. The expectation from analysts was that would be 5 , and i means inventories piling up as well. Im going to show you a bunch of other retailers getting downgraded by jpmorgan. Jpmorgan saying bearing her incrementally cautious because they are cutting their First Quarter cop sales to street lows across the board grade board. Carol lets get a check of the headlines. Mark crumpton has more from our news desk. Mark Bernie Sanders is backing away from an earlier suggestion that Hillary Clinton isnt qualified to be president. Appearing in nationally broadcast interviews, senator sanders defended speaking out harshly against mrs. Clinton, fight quote, weve got to back. When asked whether she was qualified for the white house, sanders said of course, and that mrs. Clinton on her worst day would still be an infinitely better candidate than anyone on the republican side. An Associated Press poll finds 55 of americans say they have a negative opinion of Hillary Clinton. Nearly one half of registered voters say they would at least consider voting for mrs. Clinton, while 63 say they would never vote for mr. Trump. A senior u. S. Official says an airman shot his commander in an apparent mood orsuicide at the u. S. Air force base in san antonio, texas. Two handguns were found near the bodies of the men. Officials stressed the shooting was not an act of terrorism. The fbi is leading the investigation. Suspect in the paris attacks was arrested and belgium today. French Police Officials say the deadlys linked to the march 22 bombings and brussels. The suspect identified is believed to be the mysterious man in the hat who escaped the double bombing at the airport. If true, that would mean the man had a key role in both attacks carried out by Islamic State that left a total of 162 people dead, 130 in paris, and 32 and brussels. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. I am mark crumpton. Carol, back to you. Carol u. S. Stocks have been bouncing between gains and losses all week long. The s p 500 trading in a narrow range, about 12 above the february lows. What do you think from a valuation standpoint . About 12 above the 10 year average, as we head into what is expected to be a rough earning season. What is an investor to do . Joining us is the chief market advisor at russell investments. Its not going to look good, and its not just energy earnings. It will be a negative quarter. That would be three consecutive quarters with a negative sign on that. There is some bleed into other sectors. I think it will be an earnings headwinds going into summer. Carol whats going on right now . Position, in this considering all the easy Monetary Policy we have had for a decade . Number of waysa of looking at it. We break it up into 3 distinct categories. We look at the economic cycle, we look at sentiment and momentum in the markets, and we look at valuations. If you look at the u. S. , its been a pretty good sevenyear run. We had a flat year last year. We think this will be flattish in u. S. Equities. We are advising investors is to say, even though the economy is ok, you have the earnings challenge. In these evaluations you want to look global, you want to look at areas where valuations are not so challenging. Carol in terms of the u. S. Markets, are we taking a pause . Or will things get worse from here . Guest from this point it is a flattish u. S. Equity market. In our opinion, theres going to be a lot of volatility. Think its going to be more of a flattish year, not dissimilar from 2015. Carol you like europe, and you like japan. Why europe . Valuations have improved recently. I think this is a false choice of a lot of u. S. Space investors. I do a lot of work internationally. In the u. S. There is a default position, the false choice between u. S. Stocks or cash. If we were to give an assessment that would we are underweight or not terribly positive on u. S. Stocks, the investment might say, should i not be in cash . The quantitative easing and negative Interest Rates are going to be stimulative to policies. Carol they are behind us a few years. How long will it take for europe to get back on track . Will it be a tougher move to the upside . The euroom the macro, currency, it will be a while. The European Central bank is pulling the only liver there. In the meantime, you look at a year that is a lot more like 110 and less like 160 or 170. Equities like free money coming from the central bank. They will be in that regime for a while. Even the macro could have some issues. The cycle is beginning. The European Central bank we think will create a Fertile Ground for equity investments. Carol what about a brexit . How does that impact stuff . Steve that will be a tough vote as well. I think right now it will add to the volatility. An important part of that is going to be brexit. Even if a brexit were to pass, you would be looking at a multiyear full employment for lawyers act coming out. What does that mean . How do you define that . Its not that you just wake up one day and then europe is magically separated from great britain, or the eu. That is a process. A big part of it is leveraged that the Prime Minister wants to get more concessions out of the European Union for british interests. Like japan, secondly. They cant be happy with what has been happening at this point. Steve that will be part of the challenge. The European Central bank will be easing for a while, as have the japanese. When you look at some of the thers they can pull, currency will be there go to story. I think the bank of japan will be in quantitative easing. They too are in negative Interest Rates right now. When an investor looks globally, the fed is more or less at zero. That will be over the next year, year and a half. Europe is zero to negative. You need to find yield where it exists. Carol how patient do you need to be in that environment . Steve very patient. Carol what is patient . Steve i would be looking for a multiyear horizon in japan. We need the abenomics to take root. You need a multiyear time horizon, but i think for people with a multidecade of experience, its interesting for the first time in a long time there are opportunities carol we talk about japan or europe. In terms of europe, how do you want to play it . Steve i would think we would be looking north of the alps, north of the pyrenees. Germany still looks very interesting. It is a country that disproportionately benefits. Low Interest Rates, the deposits have fled out of the mediterranean banks are going to germany, so there is a disproportionate benefit to the current situation. We would be looking at chemicals, pharmaceuticals. Think the trade into china from germany looks healthy. Carol one less question for you. Drilldown in japan, where do you want to play in japan . Sensitive, and where there are opportunities from a profitability perspective to see some changes. Germany andnated by japan, expert oriented, currency sensitive, i think the European Central bank, they will hit the accelerator for some time. Carol dont forget about lsewhere from the u. S. Have a great weekend, steve. Steve Russell Steve wood joining us. 70 of hedge funds globally produce positive returns last month. A quick check on the markets. You can see the s p and dow just a little bit of a gain, a pretty much at their session lows. Much at their session lows. Oil climbing more than 6 , the most in six weeks. We have a mixed market. Carol you are watching bloomberg markets. It is time for the Bloomberg Business flash. Qlogic corporation hired Catalyst Partners to four strategic alternatives, including a potential sale. Adapters, switches, and other technology for data centers and network infrastructure. The companys market value is about 1 billion. Energy drawing takeover interests from the rival. Suitors with the biggest electric utility in kansas included an Investor Consortium made of Infrastructure Management and the investment board. Billionaire john paulson positive ands in hedge funds covering 15 in the First Quarter. A person familiar with the matters is almost 1 2 of losses occurring in the month of march, paulson manages the advantage and advantage. That is your business flash update. Having a tough march. It has not been a good month for hedge funds. Lets bring in kathy burton, who broke this story on bloomberg. He did not have a great march. Kathy no, nor a great beginning of the year. Carol is he alone . Kathy its been a strange year. There was a report that came out today saying 70 of hedge funds need money in march, and yet weve seen some very disastrous march numbers. Carol talk about his investments and why he maybe had such a tough march. He has about a billion and a half dollars worth of allergan and a billion three in valeant. Valeant has been down 74 in the quarter, so that hurts. Carol it has not been an easy environment for some time. Why has it gotten so tricky for many of these investors . Kathy in the beginning of the year, stocks fell. People took off risk, and then we had a huge rebound in march. If you missed putting risk back on, you did not get to make up any of what you had lost. Carol the wrong side of the bat, right . 70 in terms of hedge funds have done ok in march. Kathy yes, thats what the figures said. I think that smaller funds it seems the bigger funds have not done well at all. Larry robbins had a tough time. A lot of the people that are big into valeant have gotten hurt. Carol certainly some of these bigger funds are well known individuals with a great track record. Some of these smaller funds, are they more nimble . Kathy yes, that is definitely some of the issue, especially because of these big guys are very concentrated. Carol what does it mean in terms of money coming out of these funds . We have overall seen money in the Fourth Quarter come out a bit. It was the first negative inflow since 2011. Got smarthese funds after 2008 and realized they needed to lock up money. Either they have gates that only let you out, quarter or other things that keep it not all the money is going to rush out. Carol what does it mean for paulson . What does it mean if this turns out to be a bad month, or its a bad month and it turns out to be a bad year . He has already lost a lot of investors because over the past few years hes had some remarkably bad years. A lot of people came in after his really good year, thinking that would continue. Hes lost many investors. A lot of the money now is his personal money. People have speculated that may be he would just close up and become a family office, which we have seen from a lot of people. It doesnt really matter because he has so much of his own money, more than 50 is internal money. Kathy, thank you so much. Check out more on that story on bloomberg. Com. Still ahead, corporate earnings season beginning next week and it may not be pretty. Why s p 500 earnings are under pressure. Carol stocks trying to rebound after suffering their biggest drop in two months. Biotech among the worst performers after recording its best day of gains in seven years wednesday. Ramy inocencio standing by in the actions market. Ramy joining me is mark sebastian, managing partner. Mark, thanks very much. Markets are losing steam. Its been a volatile week all week. Monday, tuesday we saw a downward trend. Thursday down. On all ofur take this. What are you holding on to for guidance . Mark if you add up wednesday, today, and subtract yesterday, i end up with nothing. Thats what it comes down to. It seems like we were really up because of what happened in japan and the european markets and when the european markets closed, all the buyers went home and thats why the markets have softened up. If i was looking at things and saw wednesday and thursday and said, maybe i will go home flat, thats a lot of what you are seeing. Theres not a lot of great reasons to go along over this i come, especially when in on sunday night i will get a good look at whats going on in asia. Reset on monday of the last six weeks in terms of where we go from here. Whether japan follows through with its rally and whether the yen does soften a little bit more during an open japanese session is going to be really important as to the direction next week takes. Commodities at least were leading some of the rallies earlier today. Oil up by 6 . We are looking at potential freezes in production about seven or eight days from now. How confident are you that might happen . Mark i dont know. The reason to recognize why that correlation is breaking with the market is that the panic is over. If oil goes a little lower, the Oil Companies will go bankrupt, that will pull the financials lower. That scenario seems to have been discounted at this point, and thats why the correlation between the s p 500 and the oil markets is broken. Oil inventories are at their 10 higheroil is than where it was a month and a half ago. I think we are in the eighth or ninth inning of the commodity mess. Ramy lets get to your trade. You are looking at the financials. Give it to me. Been earnings have completely sandbagged. I like the financials to be a leader after being off the last year or so, like jpmorgan calls. For about 2 of the cost of jpmorgan out in june 60 calls for 1. 20, 1. 30. Do reallys could well. Implied volatility is not that high in the name. May mean reversion in sector performance, and picking out the cream of the crop. Ramy thank you very much. Managing director at the options pit at the cboe. Carol still ahead, earnings season getting underway. Carol you are watching bloomberg markets. Im carol massar. Lets start with a check of the headlines. Mark crumpton has more from our news desk. Bernie sanders has closed the gap with Hillary Clinton in new yorks primary to 18 points among likely voters. According to a poll by bostonbased emerson college, mrs. Clinton is at 56 , senator sanders at 38 . Donald trump leads ted cruz 56 to 22 . John kasich is in third place at 17 . Senator cruz heading more than moreon adding 12 than 12 million to his campaign coffers. Officials dont say how much cash senator cruz has on hand right now. Court, thefederal government pressing ahead with a demand that apple help it crack into a drug dealers iphone. It is appealing a ruling in apples favor. The decision to appeal comes after the fbi successfully gained access to the iphone of one of the san bernardino. Hooters without apples help it has become the pivotal case regarding privacy rights. Spacex has another big launch plant. An Unmanned Falcon rocket is set to take off a little over an hour from now. The companys spacecraft will attempt to deliver a large hall of supplies to the International Space station, including an inflatable model that may one day be used for space hotels. It will be spacexs first station delivery since a launch accident halted shipments last june. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Im mark crumpton. Carol . Closing 29ets minutes from now. Abigail doolittle live at the nasdaq with the latest. A very different market we saw this morning versus what we see this afternoon. Had al this morning we strong market, the nasdaq up by nearly 1 greatly late morning the nasdaq turned red. Now we have the nasdaq lower once again. The index right now on pace to finish the week down by more rally. 5 , suggesting the off the february lows starting to spider a bit. The biggest drag on the nasdaq s month today the stock is down more as did today is reporting Anonymous Sources are saying that publishers saw facebook drop traffic dropped by 20 in the First Quarter. Some consistency there between those two reports. The stock is below its 10 day moving average, suggesting momentum may be turning bearish. One of the biggest winners on the week is tesla. Shares are higher by 5 on a spectacular launch of the companys model three. The Company Reported they did taken preorders for 325,000 vehicles in the first week on the reservations for those preorders and deposits for those preorders, the Company Raised more money than they did in their 2010 ipos. Huge turnaround for this stock, i one point was down

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