The man leading the race. Lets go to the markets desk. We are seeing stocks model along today with a decline snapping the threeday rally. The s p 500 is down half a percent and the nasdaq is declining the most today as thick knowledge he is a heavy weight in the major averages. If you take a look at the bloomberg and you see the groups on the move, tech and financials are the worst performers. Investors are trying to assess what is going on in china. Offering a range for its gdp forecast and boosting foreign reserves. It is a mixed bag. Lets look at largecap technology which is once again on the move. , andsoft, facebook alphabet are weighing the most on the major averages. Rally still seeing the from the lows of february 11. What is encouraging is the russell 2000 where the gains have overtaken the s p 500. These are both indices since february 11. The russell 2000 of small caps is up 13 . In past instances, when we see that kind of rise in the russell, it tends to be followed by more of an increase for the broader market. Vonnie much of the new today will be related to china . Julie people are watching this and we have not seen that close a correlation from stock at the ready between here and there. Here you see the dollar going up versus the remembyi, iron or is the standout movement on this optimism that the Chinese Government is taking steps to shore up the economy. This is the oneyear chip with a surge of 19 and thats a record. That is helping the mining stocks that mine iron ore. Natural resources are winning already. That streak is just continuing. Vonnie we will speak with a barclays emison analyst about iron ore in a few minutes but lets get to the first word news. Angela Merkel says talks will be tough but she is hoping for a sustainable solution on turkey on the european refugee crisis. She and other European Union leaders are holding an emergency summit in brussels today and there want to stop refugees from entering europe. In u. S. Politics, the democratic president ial candidates faceoff last night in a debate in flint, michigan. Hillary clinton attacked Bernie Sanders. Over the governments rescue of automakers. He was against the automobile bailout. In january of 2009, i voted to save the auto industry. Thatted against the money ended up saving the auto industry. Courtney Bernie Sanders accused Hillary Clinton of voting for certain disasters for the american people. Nancy reagan is being remembered. She died yesterday. She sometimes organized president reagan schedule in the white house aced on astrological readers and campaigned against illegal drug use and later became an advocate for stem cell research. She was 94 years old. , peyton manning, is calling it a career. He led the broncos to victory in the super bowl but has decided to retire. He won two super bowl titles and was named the leagues most valuable player, a record five times. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists, in 150 news bureaus around the world. Vonnie thank you so my sprint the annual gathering of the chinese legislature, they talked about a hard landing as they outlined their plans. And tiananmenng square. This is one of the rare occasions that foreign generalist are allowed to report from Tiananmen Square and its eight 10 day of political pageantry known as the peoples congress. In the great hall, some 3000 delegates are gathered ranging from the top officials to representatives from the military as well as the cultural spheres, ethnic nordic groups are here as well to discuss the next fiveyear development plan. The event is known as something of a rubber stamp. We spoke to some of the delegates to see what they hope to achieve. I hope china can build a moderate society by 2020 within the 13 fiveyear plan. I hope our people can live happily. We should solidify our work while maintaining reforms and opening up and adhering to the poor comprehensives put forward by the party. That is the key for our reform. In particular, thats something we should do in the new normal phase. We are forward to seeing how supplyside reforms will be carried out. I hope hong kong can make use in the nexttages fiveyear plan. I hope to take this message back to hong kong. I really want to know how my hometown can take advantage of the policies under the 13th fiveyear plan. That was from beijing. The focus today turns to the World Biggest border of currency. Their Foreign Exchange slowed but the nation took steps toward shoring up growth. The head of Asia Research for Bloomberg Intelligence joins us now to talk about the impact of the weekend meeting and reactions to the fx reserves. The pace of the drawdown and slower, 28. 6 billion. Will they continue to burn through their enormous 3. 2 trillion stockpile . The next couple of months will be quite critical from the standpoint of watching whether this calm that has developed over the last several weeks from the craziness of january into february will stick. Certainly, coming out of the mpc and seeing a lot of rhetoric that focuses on stability, sustaining growth, not at a crazy clip but at a more moderate clip with both fiscal and Monetary Policy measures goes a long way in trying to just calm the market down. Mark supporting nearterm growth might come at a mediumterm cost. Thats what some are taking away from this weekend. Its true. If i look at what our team of economists are thinking about and the bottomup industry analysts, there is an interesting correlation. On the economic front, you want them to deal with what is clearly a mountain of debt. By the same token, you also want them to be focusing on reform measures. Its hard to do both of those at the same time. They are trying to stimulate oath with fiscal and monetary. There is a boatload of reform measures part of the 13th fiveyear plan that were ratified and pushed forward through the mpc. It was done a little on the quiet side because they want to be coming across with a calming measure and the proof will be in the putting in the next 1218 months. Have household registration reforms so they can get rid of the overcapacity. All of that is critical. Vonnie the other measure is to expand the deficit to 3 . It does not sound like enough. You think that the target was 2. 3 last year and they bumped it up to three. Who cares . The same thing with the monetary the money supply growth going from 1215 . On the size of the economy and the size of the watch it, those are sizable numbers that can help continue to push forward measures. It is being connected with things like what they are doing in the Property Market where they have lowered payments to buy a home. To rework theosed income tax system so you have mortgage tax reductions deductions. Things will help clear out a critical area. Thats part of the soul program. Vonnie there is also traditional savings being put in place. Is this in order for china to cut down supply of things like steel and iron ore . Its interesting, its one of those items that did not get a huge amount of focus. 15 100 million rmb, million or so of u. S. Dollars to support training and reeducation of employees with soes and other companies that go through a restructuring and its steel and coal and other materials, oldschool manufacturing. But not a massive number its a start in the right direction and shows the focus. Some still say that the growth target is still ambitious. Do you concur . Frankly, we wish it would have been Something Like 6 as opposed to 6. 5 which would have been heavier growth but an easier target. You dont want to disappoint. That said, measuring chinese Economic Growth is tricky. Youve got big parts of the old economy that they are winding down. Youve got big parts of the new economy that are growing rapidly. In fact, you cannot really measure so much of the new stuff with the traditional gdp measures because it still gives a weight on the old stuff. We had a measure where we break out the old economy and the new economy and the old economy would be Railroad Traffic area its iron ore and stuff like that in the new economy is truck shipping which will go to retail. Its interesting. Mark good to see you. We will see you longterm in london in not too long. Coming up on bloomberg markets, moreore got desert jumped than 18 , the biggest oneday gain ever. How long will this last . We will look at that after the break. Vonnie two commodities, the bounce in oil prices has reached 2. 5 today. Another commodities rally is going on in metal with iron ore soaring the most in ice tingled day. In a single day. One analyst in china says the market is gone berserk. Copper is up more than . 60 this year following three straight weeks of gains. Will this continue . You had signaled this in your notes last month saying this desert there was possibly a bottom for the moment. Lets talk about china. Have we seen the current state of demand . Has the state of demand been clarified in china . I dont think it has and thats whats interesting about this rally in oil but across metals. We have seen this rally and the prices are surging. We have not seen any fundamental data that justifies the price levels. During the month of february in china, the entire country went on a holiday equivalent to a Christmas Holiday in the west. During that month, we dont get a lot of data so its hard to read whats going on. I monitor china daily and i have yet to see evidence we have seen a hard turn. Vonnie what about what was announced at the annual meeting, the idea that they will take sures to make this apply make the supply go down and close factories and support the economy and move toward a Service Economy . You highlighted that because this weekend, there was a meeting of the Chinese Congress for the announced their reforms. When it comes to politics in china, you have to separate rhetoric from reality. There is a lot of bullish sounding rhetoric. There was an expansion of financing and loans a new infrastructure plans. When it comes to reality, how that will impact the economy is what we are more skeptical about. These commodities have to be considered. We dont think the data and their announcements justify that. Pc said it would cut overcapacity in steel and you would think that would lead to a curving of demand and iron ore. Jumped by iron ore 18 , whats going on . Me being here at bloomberg that caused it to jump. There has been a disconnect during the fundamentals and the trading on a daytoday basis. Rally, this isre not an anomaly because it followed what has been several weeks of strong gains in the metals market. I think it is a lot of trading on rhetoric but when it comes to reality, it has not justify the high metal prices. Mark we were at 38 in december and now 63. We are at 191 in 2011. Give me an outlook for the price of iron ore. With the price of iron ore and most metals, they will trade on what happens in china. What barclays has been saying to our clients is when it comes to china come dont expect a miracle and dont expect the apocalypse but expect it to through. Uddle the chinese economy is slowing down that the ultimate message. Vonnie talk about the demand for iron ore and steel. They say steel will once again begin to impact iron ore prices. Demand,we look at steel it is ultimately used throughout the real economy. When you build an apartment till then, when you build a vehicle, youre using steel. Iron ore is an essential component of steel. This goes back to my fundamental point the chinese Real Estate Market is looking to plateau within the next five years. As the chinese Real Estate Market plateaus in the heart economy starts to slow down, we will see that through the steel prices and iron ore prices because they are the raw material. Vonnie you said in your report that since the beginning of the year, there seems to be a shift from sentiment to the more positive with things like copper and iron ore in steel. Thats right, it could be that we are seeing a real turn and demand. We have not yet seen that evidence so we have seen the commodities rally are usually when they do, thats a sign of improving macro sentiment. It could be something we are not saying that we have not in that. Automobiled production has been going down. Were not there yet. Vonnie thank you so much. Still ahead, a big weekend in the president ial prop primaries. What it means for the big boats and the in michigan in the race for the white house. Has crossedcrude 40 momentarily for the First Time Since december 9 of last year. It is rising for the sixth and second of day, the longest stretch since november, touching 40 for the First Time Since december 9, 2015. U. S. Democratic candidates for president debated in flint, michigan last night. They sparred over domestic and foreign policy. Hillary clinton holds a 17 lead in polls there. On the republican side, donald trump is still out in front leading ted cruz 4122 and marco rubio is taking 17 and john kasich is at 13 . Lets bring in megan murphy to break down the political developments. Thanks for joining us. No problem. Mark it seems ted cruz has poured cold water on this contested Convention Idea and the idea that mitt romney put forward that there should be tactical voting in states like florida. Was that the takeaway . I think the takeaway is that ted cruz has continued surprising strength winning two states particularly in maine where we had expected donald trump to pull through another victory. A contested convention on the floor, ted cruz will not probably be the man who goes out. He is not loved by the republican establishment. Think he knows if it gets to that point, he is unlikely to be the guy. His strategy has got to be to be the candidate that comes as the antitrump candidate and he has to hope that marco rubio and john kasich fall out of the race and he goes oneonone with donald from and can win that victory in a man on man matchup. Have toes marco rubio drop out if he does not win florida . The consensus is that he will. There has been talk that if you cannot win your home state as ted cruz did in texas, you cannot go on in the race. John kasich be hoping for the same in ohio. The problem for marco rubio is he has failed to become the establishment candidate choice. Voters see weakness there. There is a huge momentum of antiestablishment surge backing donald trump but ted cruz. For rubio, he will have to look at his campaign. Hes got everything riding on florida and the polls show donald trump still has a lead but that lead is narrowing. We will look to michigan tomorrow to see of Donald Trumps strength in the poll matches up with what we see. We have seen the margin smaller. On the democratic side, hillary is 57 and Bernie Sanders is 40. What about the assertion that Bernie Sanders donald trump is better than Hillary Donald trump . It shows Bernie Sanders outperforming Hillary Clinton against donald trump at its difficult to say if they mean anything. The Bernie Sanders problem is while he does well in heavily white states that trend more liberal but when you get to the diversehat have a more state with more africanamerican voters and latino voters, he fails to make the kind of inroads he needs with that demographic. He needs to show he can win black voters and win latino voters if he is going to have a serious chance of staying in this race. Mark thanks for joining us today. Brent crude iste crossing 40 per barrel. Still i had, mario draghi faces big and expect haitians. Brexitrney talks about risk. Live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york and london, im vonnie quinn. Thy mark barton. Courtney donohoe is at the news desk. Hi, courtney. Courtney Vice President joe biden eval into wipe out this state. Hat is the islamic Vice President biden we will continue to squeeze the heart of they cannot continue to pump their poison into the world. We are making it harder for them to maneuver. We are cutting off their lifeline, their oil revenues, and there fineir finances. More bad behavior from north korea. The isolated regime is making more threats against the u. S. And allies. They tend to spike when stages whatnd seoul they call their annual springtime wargames. North korea says that they are drills for an invasion. Only half of the people are confident in the safety of their tap water. Many of those surveyed say the lead contamination incident, michigan, is a sign of a problem. And tennis star Maria Sharapova has called a News Conference in los angeles to make what her agent calls a major announcement. There is speculation that the 28yearold could retire from the game. Days ago, she pulled out of a tournament due to an injury. Global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in 150 bureaus around the world. Im courtney donohoe. Vonnie . Lets go to the markets desk where julie hyman has a check on the movers. Julie . Julie i want to mention that the dow has ticked positive on this mixed session. I want to start with commodities, in particular brent, which touched above 40 a barrel, which has not happened in some time. We have a delayed effect from the Baker Hughes Rig count, friday. Me out supplies are at an 86year high. Nonetheless, there is optimism that may start to change. Now the delayed Ripple Effect brent today, a spike of 3 in this prices. Also being felt in wti, and also andre seeing activity natural gas. Imac screwed up 3 , continuing its rebound from his 17year low , up 3. 5 , even as we are facing warmer weather in the northeast this week. What to check oil and natural movers. Chesapeake continues its crazy run here. ,he stock has more than doubled 112 percent, and it keeps going. Amountshat essentially to a short squeeze, as well as bega