Percent and the dow is up little higher and the nasdaq is up by 1 . Question was whether traders would see a selloff before the president s day to day weekend but we are Holding Onto Gains as we go into the holiday weekend. Lets look at sector performance. You can see for the most part its a broadbased rally. The s p 500 10 sectors are in the green but utilities are down a little. Financials are the biggest leader up by 3. 25 and they were the biggest laggard yesterday. 2. 4 ials are up by 25 and energy is up. Some of the financial stocks are in rally mode. Bank of america and citigroup yesterday fell 6. 5 . They are now up by 5 . Is up 7 off of that news as well as wells fargo. Lets take a look at energy. With energy, crude oil is up 10 at 6 . It had been up about 11 but we are now up near the 29 per barrel mark, near session highs. This is the biggest jump since january. Yesterday, it fell to the lowest hint of days. At equity struck a dive yesterday. Safe havens are going the other way as equities go up. Gold is down pulling away from per ounce price. In u. S. Treasuries, we are off the session highs but the 10 year is rallying nine basis points. David thank you. Lets get to the first word news. President ial candidates from both parties are campaigning in South Carolina. Joined larger than next that i expect it crowds and some events today and tomorrow being moved to larger venues due to increased demand. Hillary clinton is also campaigning in South Carolina before attending a dinner event in minnesota along with Bernie Sanders. One man has been banned from soccer related activity for two of years due to misconduct during his time as fifa secretary general. He was found to of several offenses including taking private checks for personal use and a stronger evidence and trying to force through an undervalued sale of teams. North korea is still developing a mobile Intercontinental Ballistic Missile that could reach much of the United States according to a new pentagon report. Kn08 missile would have a range of 3400 miles. They already have mobile launchers. Carter said the United Arab Emirates will spend special forces to syria. He said they will help local sunni fighters. Secretary carter says forces from the keep version golf allies should train local fighters. And massive collection of papers belonging to the author of the godfather can be yours if you can come up with the right price. The 45 box archive belonging to multipleo includes drafts with provisions to the novel and screenplay. Its being so old next week in the collection is expected to sell at auction for nearly 400,000. News 24 hours a day, powered by her 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. David this week, lawmakers grilled janet yellen about the possibility of a recession and the tools the Federal Reserve has. Watching developments very carefully. There is always some chance of a recession in any year but the evidence suggests that expansions dont die of old age. At this point, i think its premature to make a judgment. We will meet in march in our committee will carefully deliberate about what impact these developers have had. Guest is joext davis, global chief economist at vanguard. It seemed to be investors were not listening to what she had to say. If they were listening, they did not like what she had to say. What is your take . The fed is clearly behind the curve in terms of acknowledging but we will likely see as a bleed over of the deterioration of financial conditions with financial bonds and the equity market into the economy. The economy is resilient but is not immune. We will likely see a slowdown in the us of job growth, not a recession, but a slowdown. David why is it important yellen what janet says . Whyd you have to listen so closely to what she says . With impacting the market in our mind and whats being it misses the disconnect between the bond market and where the fed believes they will go in Interest Rate policy. That disagreement is leading to uncertainty. It explains the volatility in the dollar and commodity prices. We did not view the feds decision to lift off in december as having been a mistake. 25 basis points is not do that kind of damage to Global Equity markets. The mistake potentially is believing they will take the fed funds over a gradual time to 3 which would be a 600 basis point tightening. I read that about the economy bending but not breaking in your most recent note. Investors are feeling a little bearish. Is that dangerous right now . Definitely, for the first time in a long time, how models are less pessimistic than the financial markets. We all have to be forwardlooking and its tough to stomach the weeks and months have had recently. We went into the year with a guarded outlook but not entirely bearish. If anything, our projected return for various Asset Classes have risen at the margin overtime. , itsforwardlooking important to know the equity market has already this in a recession and unless one believes were headed back to 2008, we should see stabilization. The word hear recession a lot these days. When you look at the data come are you thinking thats a possibility . Its more sentiment than financials. You have to look at financial conditions because they are a leading indicator. It does that mean they are accurate and we have to take into account other momentum indicators of the economy. When you look at them the odds of an outright recession are still at best run in 10. The odds of a slowdown are the highest we have been projecting since 2008. Inwill likely see a scare the labor market such as we saw in the industrial sector. Recognize thatto the equity market is the most bearish signal out there. Not thety market is best track record for protecting recessions. David what elearning from the yield curve . Clearly some commentators are given because it can invert then it will be less reliable in terms of predicting a recession. I think that is somewhat misstated. The power and predictability of the yield curve is if it flattens like between the 10 year treasury or the twoyear or the cash rate, as long as it flattens, that would portend a recession. If we saw the 10 year treasury like 75kedly lower basis points, that. Will be enough to signal a recession we are clearly not there yet but its a reminder that we could be in store for more volatility should we see the job scare play out. David thank you so much. Minutes, mark cubans candid take on the markets. In the next 15 minutes. Down ss gives up on gives a thumbs down to negative rates. The dacian for market forecasters and well hear from a strategist that points to 2 wildcard for stockschina and oil it david welcome back. There were early in said visa had taken a 5 stake in square visa confirm those reports are incorrect. Shares of square up almost 5 . Its it is time for the Bloomberg Business flash. John paulsons diving back into troubled debt. The Hedge Fund Manager seeking to raise 1. 5 billion for a private equity fund that will invest in Companies Going through bankruptcy and restructuring in need of rescue financing for he already makes these kind of investments and it will focus on less liquid firms. A spokesman declined to comment. Beatingley has taken a a week after being appointed ceo of barclays. He brought barclays stock but the stock has plunged 34 . Than 6e is shrunk more million. Scotch distillers are rallying to keep the u. K. In the eu and they argue if they were out it would jeopardize Market Access and make scotch more expensive for consumers abroad. That is your business flash update. Lets go back to the market desk. Looking at the, markets, we are approaching session highs again with the dow up 1. 6 . Todaye a lot of winners moving into being. Freeport mac moran is up by nearly 13 . This is off of whats happening in commodities. Copper is central to what they do. Copper is up by about 1. 25 in ones the highest jump week. In other energy commodities, exxon and chevron and Conoco Phillips, exxon is up by 1 and chevron is up by an 5 as well as Conoco Phillips on the back of rising oil trading at about 29 per barrel. 11 on the day. 5 asares are popping well as other insurers. The news out of aig is that they revealed they had a fourth loss but that is being overshadowed by a 5 billion buyback. They are increasing their Quarterly Dividend by 14 percent. Banks are the biggest s p 500 leader. Fromare seeing an uplift 5. 5 6 . The nba allstar texan i kicked off today but that was not the only thing being discussed. Mark cuban talks about what he sees in the volatility in the markets. I think were going to a correction where we dont understand how all the markets in different Asset Classes are correlated and we see so much algorithm trading driving one class versus another that its not just about fundamentals anymore. Traders dont or understand whats going on, they get out and go to cash so its not a surprise. Stephanie what are you doing . I have edged positions like thatix and smaller caps have not moved. I have bought some lottery tickets literally as in i buchholz on gold. I bought some clothes on gold. I bought them at the bottom when they were . 25 and neve and now they are at or near the money. Im not quite sure what is going on. I will take different flyers and then i will hedge and three, i will look for things that fall outside of common sense. Stephanie like what . Lets just say netflix posted 10 five to 10 or twitter. Its right on the cusp. It probably fairly valued at 10. I would load up the boat because after cash, its probably an eight dollar stock. Add a 5 billion market cap, isaac its worth it. Looking for those type of aberrational trades and having cash to swoop in and get them. What about wellrun companies that are dependent on factors outside their control like oil . Down as do theo share prices but they are not necessarily a buying opportunity because you tack on their operating costs, theyve got nothing. I went hardcore in 2008 into so i got a 15 since then and they have increased their dividends. My mark to market bases, im getting crushed. I am fine because relative to my investment, im way up and getting paid a lot of money. Any thatt have had i havent been able to recover. Thats part of the market cycles. I was able to trade hedges by shorting and by sun oil. For me, i am always looking for a hedge. There is always going to be uncertainty. With all the geniuses in april market and we have times when things will go up, i will give up a little upside to protect my downside if paid off heavily in 2008. Its not working too badly but not as well this time around. Stephanie whered you think we are in terms of the cycle . Some say we are headed toward a recession and president obama says we are in a true economic recovery. We are going through a Market Structure correction did because of all the correlated Asset Classes, you get perceived trading so its not fundamentally driven. Its less technically driven. Machine learning is that a whole different level of analysis than typical traders. Then youve got the economy. As much as we would like to that the market indicates whats going to happen in the economy, its not the case anymore. One of the questions i ask is who thinks the stock market is safer today than it was 10 years ago . Nobody raises their hand. There has been so much up and down and crashes. If everyday people dont trust the markets, they are not really getting pushed up and down by whats happening right now. David that was the owner of the dallas mavericks, still ahead, we will tell you why prominent bond fund manager said negative Interest Rates dont work and i might hurt. And they might hurt. David welcome back. Over turn to the debate negative Interest Rates to stimulate the economy. Janet yellen says the fed is looking at the idea. In light of European Countries and others that have gone through negative rates, we are taking a look at them again because we want to be aired in the event related to add accommodation. David big names in the bond market are lining up against the idea. Bill gross and scott mather are among those who say negative rates will not work. Time a newent some beach talking to these guys. Its the argument they make against this . Contractionaryis that you are taking money out of the system by lowering interest. There is no reason your money in a bank and no reason to save and wheres the payback for banks . Thanks right now have been suffering. Let me play a clip from the president of the new york fed, bill dudley, who talked about the likelihood of this happening. Its extraordinarily premature conversation to have. The u. S. Economy is in quite good shape and if things worked to earn any surprising direction, the luck in the u. S. Deteriorated, there are things that we would do before moving to negative Interest Rates. This brings to mind bill gross will has been critical of central banks. What would bill gross like to see janet yellen and her cohort be doing now . Was less specific on suggestions of what they should do than scott mather. Scott mather at pimco says they should by corporate that. They should do Something Like v where they invest in assets and get people incentive to invest rather than taking money out of the system by repeating the drive down of Interest Rates. Progress says it does nothing to stimulate the gross says it does nothing to stimulate the economy. Interestere are some in Corporate Bonds with the banking sector. Saying theey are signals are the prices are falling far enough in mip good and the pangs wont default on these desperate Jeff Gundlach said on waiting for the moment that the back that the next big opportunity out there is corporate debt and the sectorsre among he cited as being the most beatendown especially banks. David thanks in the u. S. For banks globally . Fallen ain europe for lot in Deutsche Bank said they are buying back some of their debt to bishop people. U. S. Banks are way down. Thosean was one of the leading in the market we will see how long that lasts. Jamie dimon said i am buying a bunch of j. P. Morgan stock which is a signal that its a good investment. David how is the bond market doing today . Early signs are that people ,re feeling a little more risky whatever they opted of a verse is. They are selling german and u. S. Treasuries and credit default swaps which are insurance. They are going down in price. David thank you so much. Coming up, more Bloomberg Markets with a look at oil. Brent crude is up about 9 . Bloomberg World Headquarters, this is Bloomberg Markets. Mark crumpton has news. Mark the World Health Organization says possible zika vaccines are 18 months away from largescale trials. In washington at a briefing hosted by the American Association for the advancement of science, dr. Anthony fauci z in goodi have been caseska of into the United States. The question we are keeping our eye on is the question of locally transmitted zika. At this point, there are no cases of locally transmitted zaika in the continental United States. Mark he said it would not be surprising to learn of isolated clusters. On identify dna has been discovered on to explosive belts linked to the paris terror attacks according to the local procedures office. When the belt was discovered in a paris suburb of the cell phone of a fugitive attacker was located. That persons dna was also found on the suicide belt of the attackers blew himself up. On king of jordan is calling the International Committee to act as one diplomatically to stop the civil war in syria. At an annual munich security conference, he said arabs and muslims have a responsibility and a duty to be in the lead against isis which he called out laws of islam. This is a war to protect our religion, our values, and the future of our people. Effort thatso an must be global in partnership. The diplomats and king agreed to seek a temporary cessation of hostilities in syria and civil war but efforts to secure a lasting ceasefire fell short. The European Union countries are ready to restrict passport free travel by invoking an emergency rule years. Addition of an emergency room or 10 years. Greece is failing to sufficiently contact its borders and 2000 people are arriving daily and greek islands in smuggling boats from turkey. A day,news 24 hours powered by a 2400 journalists in more than 150 news peers around the world. David Commodity Markets are closing in new york so lets look at the biggest movers. Gold is trading lower on the day but it had an explosive start and has lifted prices to the highest level in a year. Investors went back to the gold after three straight years of losses. Oil rebounded from a to of your low yesterday gaining 12 . Indexude Oil Volatility climbs to the highest level in seven years. For more context on how crude oil is affecting equities, lets talk with the chief strategist at wheaton company. What is going on with oil . There was a tremendous dive yesterday. Today buta huge move we have seen this over the last few months. If you update your term chart with relative strength, you can see every time a guest to these its ad levels, predictably setting up a big move up get its not necessarily a reflection that anything is different this time around. I think there is some isdamental good news that starting to accelerate. U. S. Production is starting to roll over again. You are starting to see certain aspects like the inventories which are heavily placed in. Heavily placed in. Priced in. A fourmonth bottoming plazas in crude oil so there is probably more downside risk. The overall momentum to the downside is starting to wane and you see that on longerterm technical charts as well. You can see the bottom but we have not touched it . You cannot predict a bottom but i think you are starting to see the downward momentum technically starting to shift. You also have to put it in dollar context. You mention gold had a strong start and that is against the backdrop of the u. S. Dollar failing to continue to rally. I think that is maybe more obvious for crude but its also another tailwind for crude oil, more obvious for gold, but a tailwind for crude oil as well. David you have written about the new diversion see. Describe the significance of that. People have talked about the u. S. Economy accelerating to the upside as well as the dollar. What i have noticed over the last couple of weeks is that the u. S. Equities are starting to outperform japanese and european equities. I think what is at work here is the u. S. Dollar. That was a huge headwinds to u. S. Equities. How on earth are equities going to keep rising . The dollar negatively impact earnings and is down the u. S. Economy. What is interesting is if you look at the yen versus other currencies or the u. S. Dollar relative to the s p 500, you can see obvious correlations. I am starting to think the dollar rally is pretty much behind us. I think you will start seeing relative better performance in u. S. Dollar over japanese and european currencies. David we have seen the most 20 swings in years. Will that continue . My context or volatility is not that we will get to massive spikes where we will suddenly shoot up to 50 but the floor of the vix will stay elevated. The key volatility drivers in the market today like china and oil have been factors that cannot be addressed by the fed. European banking volatility factor coming in as well. It will be interesting to see whether the ecb can get their arms around that quickly. That means we will have a more robust and dynamic volatility market but it does not mean the world is coming to an end. Someone said whats going on in china is a working vacation for policymakers. What will we see after the Chinese New Year break . If you look at a basket of asian currencies and focused on china, that has been diverging positively with crude oil and the s p 500. One of my favorite charts shows the s p futures with food and this basket and it was take for tech. Over the last week and a half, you can see the asian currencies performing better. Part of that is because of the weakening dollar. Part of it may be the fact that the chinese are slowly getting their arms around it. Tore is no quick resolution the chinese problems. Thats an easy comment to make. David stick with us because i want to turn to financials. Jamie dimon seems to think there is a light at the end of the tunnel for banks. His stock is rallying after a buyback. This clearly had symbolic significance, the purchase of stocks. Jamie dimon basically put his money where his mouth is. Jpmorgan ander i buying these chairs was a big boost of confidence certainly to j. P. Morgan shares but that filtered in throughout the rest of the industry. You also had Deutsche Bank earlier today coming out and saying they were going to buy their bonds. That sent the shares higher and that was the same type of thing, a vote of confidence. The insider saying we are at the bank in recent things not as bad as outside investors and we will our money behind that view in the market has done well as a result. David jamie dimon is not the only one doing this. Here isow line financials so we are seeing an uptick. We see the makings of a trend, it seems like. And prices are very cheap. Citigroup is trading at. 6 of book which is a bargain. These guys believe in their business model. Citigroup is in a restructuring. Coming out the back end of a restructuring so their ceo is feeling confident. He bought shares a week or two about one million, did not make as much news as jamie dimon buying t 6 million yesterday. Just buying 26 million yesterday. This week we saw a downturn and now its an uptick. Perspective,uation banks are more attractive than they have been. If might about volatility, that will probably help their businesses and equity trading businesses m a continues to be a dominant theme. Questionthe broader about if this negative nominal yield game goes from the crazy idea to more orthodox and we have continued suppression of , the fed will impart some of that from japan in the eurozone, if that continues, how does that affect the interest margin Going Forward . View, valuation point of those are more compelling questions. About Deutsche Bank, does that give you any sense that they are in stronger shape . I think its a statement thats important for the markets. You have seen the impact. The european banking complex is a norm is relative to the size of gdp even more than ours. Anytime you see something that is that systemically important doing something to stabilize its enormously important to risk appetite. David thank you both. Up, and last nights democratic debate, Hillary Clinton tried a new approach to back supporters but was she successful . Shares of pandora being downgraded after rumors of a possible sale. John paulson and carl icahn may have gotten the seats they got but the up the battle may have just begun to the market is up at the moment. More Bloomberg Markets coming up after the break. David welcome back to Bloomberg Markets. Lets turn to president ial politics as donald trump is leading in the potential field at 36 with ted cruz and second percent. Be onp candidates will stage tomorrow night to debate in greenville, South Carolina did Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders debated last night. Johnhalmond. N i watched the whole debate in the first five minutes, Hillary Clinton was sending the message that youve got rhetoric but i have plans, ive done more, and their stuff for you to look at. Yes, totally, she is trying to do this interesting thing. She is trying to to find the race in a completely opposite way from anybody expected. Shes turned this into a referendum on Bernie Sanders. The obama rhetoric result lets all get along and Bernie Sanders is lets burn the joint downgraded in both cases, they are utopian candidates and hillary says i am not a you to pick a miami realist and i know i do get things done its all about how you get things done. She is basically playing the experience card but more powerful last night because experience is not worked well in either of these races, the more powerful thing she did was say that Bernie Sanders, you are not the right person to be inheriting Barack Obamas mantle. Use a barack obama was not aggressive and i think he was a great and thats a key move for her as we go into states where there is less. Where there is more diverse electorates she messed up in places like nevada and South Carolina where there are many africanamerican voters and latinos who love barack i love publicd broadcasting and it was a public broadcasting debate that there was some key to their toward the end. They both seemed tired at the beginning which is not surprising. And the aggravation between the two of them they did not beat themselves up early. Saw itend, you suddenly was liked the fighters have been playing rope a dope and then were throwing uppercuts. I never thought i would see a day when there would be a democrat defending Henry Kissinger but there you are. There were a couple of moments there were Bernie Sanders sounded a little like obama. He was a little grumpy with Hillary Clinton. Only one of usas that ran against barack obama and i am not that person. The republican field, donald trump is solidly in the lead among likely we can voters. What does ted cruz have to do to lessen the size of that cap . A focus group for the last couple of days about the undecided voters who are republican. Of interest in ted cruz and he is wellsuited to the stage. Headlong at donald trump on something that came out of the focus group was that the voters were offended by Donald Trumps vote down richly and he is a little bit out there. In South Carolina which is in the bible belt, there is a greater sensitivity to some of the things that donald trump says and ted cruz will run as the unit angelica candidate. As the evangelical candidate. He could do pretty well but the gap between him and donald trump is too large. Its hard to imagine him closing that gap entirely but he wants to run as the traditional morals candidate. You have the other three which andestablishment candidates they are trying to be the strongest possible third so they can get rid of the other two. David thank you so much. Watch with all due respect today at 4 00. Lets look at the biggest business stories. Selloff as the Credit Hedge Fund to its worst start in 19 year history. One 9 billion dollar Obsidian Fund dropped 4 in january. Paragon author has reached a deal with creditors to restructure its 2. 7 billion dollar debt in bankruptcy. The agreement calls for the Oil Services Company to shed more than 1 billion of debt. Paragon should file for chapter 11 by sunday. Valentines day will probably not be enough to boost slumping diamond demand. Global imports have slack tim griffin this years estimated americans will spend 8 less buying jewelry for loved ones on valentines day. Businessour bloomberg flash update. Lets go back to the bloomberg market desk. Ramy we are at session highs right now. The dow is up 280. Points. With his broadbased rally, there are still some losers. For every nine stocks up on the s p 500, one stock is down. Travel stocks are the laggards. 2. 7 . As down by it was up yesterday. Earnings over the last couple of days and we might be seeing some profit taking. Expedia rallied eight percent after reported earnings and trip advisor rallied 15 so its potentially profit taking. To the mosaic, the company that does fertilizer and the shares are on the down. And analyst says the Fertilizer Company is using its own Free Cash Flow to pay its own dividend and buyback. That Just Announced 75 million of buy back shares. At session lows at nearly 8. 5 . Lets take a look at some energy stocks. Chesapeake energy is down this afternoon. It is said it will be 5 million of debt that will be much bring in the. It will also use cash on hand in their credit line. David thank you so much. Coming up, the largest Internet Radio Service Pandora may put itself up for sale and we will find out why and who is the market coming up next. David welcome back to Bloomberg Markets. The largest Internet Radio service made itself up for sale. The pandora losses have been piling up and there is growing competition from online music services. Shares fell close to an alltime low and some analysts lowered their price targets. It is in the market to buy a company like this . Emily chang has more. And or is one of the first to experiment streaming music to the would have an appetite for this company . It could be apple or facebook and they have held out and not sold and there have been rumors of them selling for years. They have continued to stay in the business and have 81 million listeners. Ive that number has plateaued and it kicked in 2014. They are slightly below that the right now that it has not been seeing the Dynamic Growth that investors really want to see right now. Listener hours are up like 5 and is just not enough. They had a weak Sales Forecast and the slightly missed estimates and as we understand it, they are talking to Morgan Stanley about reaching out for possible buyers. David this is a company that went public in 2011 and has not been able to make a profit since then. What does the leadership of the company say how they might do that Going Forward . They laid out a fiveyear plan and for that is international expansion. They are in australia and new zealand but expanding into any additional country is a huge headache because they have to do of government and licensing issues and that has been one of the major headaches for pandora over the course of 15 years. They just concluded a heated battle with the Music Industry about how much they pay for streaming songs. They now pay more than they used to put the Music Industry is still not happy. International expansion could be a way to accelerate growth and they have talked about focusing on live events. They brought a ticketing business to build out that live event business and have talked about refocusing on subscriptions which makes up smaller portion of their business. The vast majority of the revenue comes from advertising. David this company is not changed that much in terms of its business model. Yes, it goes back to the human genome project. Real human beings are behind the scenes curating. Im a huge under a listener but i am a lazy listener. I just turn on toddler radio in the kitchen and my kids are happy for the next three hours. For other kinds of listeners, they are using ondemand services. David thank you so much. Coming up, more Bloomberg Markets after the break. It is 3 00 p. M. In new york, 8 p. M. In london, at 1 00 a. M. In hong kong. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets. Scarlet from bloomberg World Headquarters here in new york, good afternoon. Here is what were watching at this hour. Investors are writing out this weeks storm in the markets, dow a 300 point gain. Oil is also on an amazing rebound, of the most in three weeks as opec seems willing to engage with other producers. We talked to a former oil ceo was also a former ambassador to syria. Ken feinberg tells me about his latest job with ball flight income and why wall street bonuses should be changed. We are one hour
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