We are about an hour away from the close of trade. Ant to head in where raimi did not watch kung fu panda three. But you have been watching an incredible comeback. Ramy i will be watching it. Stanleyare right, fischer is definitely giving a boost to the markets today. The nasdaq slipped into the green and we are close to the dow slipping into the green as well as the s p 500. The dow had been down and now we are down by only 15 or 16 points here. Earlier today, we saw chinese numbers weigh on the market as well. We are definitely in turnaround mode. We will see in the next hour or so if we could get to the green. I want to show you the imap function. Earlier today, wednesday started , all of these sectors were in the red and we now have four sectors in that territory. Energy is no surprise. Look at this. Telecommunications is the biggest gainer up by 1 . Crude is still at a low but still down by a more than 6 . Today, he did see a fivemonth low. Still on track. More oil in the global market. Despite the major averages trading lower throughout the day, we see treasury yields climbing. It is an trusting. You would think in this environment, that the yield would have been following. They are in fact rising potentially part because of what is happening now. Hit ams like traders bottom as well. 1. 69 . Earlier thiseen morning, we hit 1. 9 05. Last time we had that was april of last year. Potentially traders thinking we cannot go much lower than that. Gold is reacting up by 1. 1 here. This is obviously session highs. Thank you. Mark crumpton has more from the news desk. Will best votes cast today in the 2016 president ial race. Support to threw her donald trump live at a trump rally in iowa. The Des Moines Register polls show mr. Trump with a fivepoint lead over ted cruz. That is among the Republican Voters in the Iowa Caucuses. Whether Trump Supporters will show up tonight. Hillary clinton has a slight over senator Bernie Sanders counting on young voters to help him score and upset. Will preview the Iowa Caucuses live from des moines. A special twohour edition of with all due respect beginning at 5 00 p. M. New york time. President obama will ask congress for millions of dollars in this fiscal 2017 budget. 100 95 billion this year. That investment is intended to increase or search into the disease and ultimately find a cure. Last years death of Vice President bidens son ball served as a catalyst for the initiative. Americas is in an international emergency. Holding a crisis meeting to discuss the virus. Emergency was last declared over the 2014 ebola outbreak. To 4mericas could see up million cases in the next year. A judge sentenced a british woman to six years in prison for going to syria to live under the rule of islamic state. The woman and her oneyearold son boarded a plane to turkey and in syria. Was taken into social care. Powerful wind earlier today. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain and mountain snow. Interstate five leading in and out of Los Angeles County shut because of icy road conditions. Wind advisories remain in place days after down trees and power poles ripped off rooftops and in one case, solar panels across the region. Killed when a tree fell off his car in san diego county. Powered by more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Betty, back to you. Stanley fischer spoke earlier given the recent turmoil overrkets and uncertainty china. He addressed why it is so difficult for policymakers to say what they will do next. I cannot answer the question because as i have emphasized, we simply do not know. The world is not a certain place and all monetary policymakers can really be sure of is what will happen is often different from what we currently expect. That is why the committee has repeatedly indicated its policy decisions will be data dependent. The s p is saying it expects feds to raise rates to times this year and we see a total of four hikes and the u. S. Markets are data dependent also. Join us for more is the chief Investment Officer at bernstein. When you listen to stand fischer say that, are you buying the market now . Of anybody expects the fed to bail us out, they are mistaken. Individual companies will be leading and veteran investments than others. You want to be stock specific as opposed to looking at the index. That means what in the context of what you heard from fischer . Classy will make sure this is a very secure recovery. But that is, isnt it . For markets have to carry themselves. The fed will not. Betty right. You will not, but hearing more and out coming out from fischer, saying there is a little more doubt in the fed will go for rate hikes this year. It has got to be helpful. The fed will not hurt us but i do not think it will help us. Comes down to Company Fundamentals here the deal announced this morning buying a smaller competitor, it is a great deal. In 2018,ed about . 20 10 accretion and more thereafter. Those are smart deals and with the markets coming down like it has, to be able to do deals like that is very exciting. Did you see the decline in january as a buying opportunity . Was we do here and we are encouraged by the markets and we think what happened in january is an overreaction. Something like that where they can really generate nice growth are excitedng, we about that. Who is the right pick . We want to make sure if you are just waiting for the fed to help you, were not interested. Nice Revenue Growth on top of that, those are the kinds of companies we are talking about. Investors are taking a more defensive stance chair you see more and more investors pile into defensive shares, particularly in january or it they look more at earnings growthnce rather than and momentum. That is the irony. You look at health care as a group. Defensive butly people sold that extra hard for a variety of reasons we think there is opportunity in health care more broadly. Where else do you see opportunity . A lot of different places. Technology. Underlying transactions improved 12 . Greatyou can find really underlying growth. The economies around the world, it has to be a company with a nice tailwind. Betty how about if we continue decline . L prices on that level. R the number of rigs drilling is down more than 1000 yearoveryear. Thank you, jim. Much more is ahead in the next 20 minutes. Imacs is cutting a deal with Discovery Communications to show imax films on discovery with various networks. The first tv deal for original content. The ceo joins us next. The report will give president ial front runner faces voters for the Iowa Caucuses. Can he translate those well in ashwell attended rallies to a wave of support . Which check on the dow, is trying to turn positive. You can see we are 20 points away from hitting the green. Betty lets check in where the markets are trading as we climb back in the lows of the session. We are just within the positive territory on the s p. We have briefly reached that earlier today. Away from gaining, getting into the green. The nasdaq has in fact climbed to that level. We are waiting for earnings to come out. Time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. Calling for the breakup of aig. Saying that it is inadequate and sending directors to shake up the company. Carl icahn says he is planning to propose it a list of possible board members. Announcing record settlements with two global banks. Barclays and Credit Suisse will pay over 154 million total to settle claims they misled investors about how the venues are managed. My agencies say more actions are likely against private trading. Gains, cbs, nbc, and the nfl network. Cbs and nbc will air matchups between 2016 and 2017. On theill be simulcast nfl network and they will still televise eight games exclusively. That is the Bloomberg Business flash update. Imacs is dipping its toes into television land. They are disturbing up to 10 documentary films. Tv distribution packs for original content. Ambitions, richard, good to see you again. Explain how the deal will work. When you look at content, it is harder to stand out in the past. It is more difficult. Content that stands out, it means something. You think about an immersive experience. We have a documentary film fund and we are making a number of movies. Those movies are anything from space to the environment to wildlife to whatever it is. It seems to us that producing content just for a narrow winter of document window of documentaries does not make sense. Give a second on television, we could benefit discovery. It runs theatrically discovery will approach their different properties. They will be promoting the same film but they will be promoting it first when we have the theatrical window. Take the window and distribute it through that window. For us, it is our first foray into taking original content and running it through a Television Distribution window. It might be a model for other things. You might do more original content and partner that across the window or the internet or cable television. Want to geto you into original content . You look at interesting models. Hbo and netflix. They started by distributing hollywood films. Betty that is generally the business. Richard and now we have over theaters all over the world. Why not take that Brand Awareness and audience awareness and translate that into original content . We have been known for our documentary content and that is always a part of our business. Many of our movies have done big numbers. The deal with discovery is consistent with what we have done in the past. Another phone fund in china, partnering with the production, and i would not be surprised to do something in china where we monetize downstream content. Maybe do a Partnership Deal with some there in china. Eventually, we have talked a little bit about this and it eventually may spread commercial content. Betty the bottom line is you want to become the hbo or the netflix of discovery type content . Richard i would love to be that but i think that is aiming a little bit out of our range here it we want to do primary is miss which is distributed hollywood films around the world. Wars, over 10 of worldwide box office. Dowant to help our partners that. The end of august, september and october. Where we might supplement it with original content and then travel across other platforms. Betty im curious because you mentioned china and work so closely with chinese studios or chinese content creators. Do you think the turmoil in hollywood . Affect we have been financing so many films here. Chinahas been terrific in last year, the Gross Box Office is up from the year before. Is in someusiness because inis ironic order to lower our volatility to china, one thing we did was take our Chinese Company and bring in public on the hong kong stock strange. Today, 59 from the ipo which is three to go. The market with our Parent Companies say we are working with china but the shareholders in china are not worried at all. It is a little bit of a dichotomy. That is partly the Macro Economy versus the Consumer Discretionary economy. In general isness doing really well. People lump it in and say it is china. But that does not seem to apply. Fact before we go, the that you are ramping up your original content creation, how much more money are you going to be investing in your studio . Will vary that depending on our results. We do not have to jump in on anything. A fantastic business. The china fund and the documentary fund, pepco i think original content, we can start small with partners and if it does not work, we have not lost a lot. If it does, we can choose to put more money in. Thank you for joining us. Up next, the markets on the comeback trail. We will talk more about it in a moment. Todaysining me for options insight, a derivatives strategist. First off, tammy fisher spoke this afternoon in new york. Acrossat session highs the board. Your thoughts on this . Magical power may be . It is encouraging for markets. Stocks came higher as we came in here. Out foruring came january in the fourth consecutive month. Five times, that has happened. Back in 1920. Recession inn a five months. You can see why the fed would stand a little bit as far as rate hikes go. Look at volatility, it is at the 20 mark or so. Your note speaks to that volatility. Equity volatility cannot find stability on a level we believe it will continue to move down. To take thatt peak. That is through much of february and in march, equities cap a little bit of wind in their back. They bounce nicely off the lows. Participate in the next six to eight weeks. We remember what you said. Today. Down 2 why is it so attractive to you . In this environment, stocks on earnings can be better, optimal equipment supplier beating them down pretty badly, down to its low from december. The entire optical equipment space got dinged up pretty good. Will report next week on the 11th. Quarter. It is a beat a nice catalyst ahead. Go out and buy call spreads. To go out and buy call spread in march. 25, a little higher. Thank you very much. Betty live from bloomberg headquarters in manhattan, you are watching bloomberg markets. Lets check in with Mark Crumpton at the news desk. Mark the 2016 president ial race officially gets underway tonight, and the campaigners are on the stump again. You are looking live at a shot from cedar rapids, iowa. Donald j trump, the billionaire from new york city, the boastful tolionaire, is predicted have a victory tonight. Last minute surveys show mr. Trump seems to get most of the edge with republicans. Hillary clinton on the democrats. Mr. Trump reminded iowans that it has been a long time since they backed the actual winner. Trump you havent had a winner in iowa in 16 years. Winner going to have a this time. We are going to change that. 16. Thats a lot of years. Have 44e democrats delegates at stake. Republicans have 30. 150 Million Dollars in ad money was poured into the iowa campaign. Bloomberg will preview the caucuses live from des moines in a special edition of all due , beginning at 5 00 p. M. New york time. In the aftermath of the Nuclear Money iran says it now has 100 billion in assets. Say there is insufficient evidence to hold a teacher arrested in connection with the escape of three inmates from a california jail. She was arrested thursday and booked on suspicion of being an excess three to a felony. She taught english at the jail and exchanged letters an accessory to a felony. She taught english at the jail and exchanged letters with one of the inmates. News 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in 150 gnus bureaus around the world. I am Mark Crumpton. Bureaus around the world. I am Mark Crumpton. Betty . Be closingooked to at our session highs. True, due largely to a turnaround in biotech and movement higher in some of the big tech names. Amazon remains a drag on the nasdaq, down about 10 for the last two days in a row. Brian novak at Morgan Stanley says revenue could be at risk if apple decides to move away from Amazon Cloud Services platform. Dayon was well below its 50. Oving average we could see more weakness here in amazon. On the other side, driving the nasdaq higher, facebook is trading at a record high. Days in a row, about 20 over that time. The stock is clearly rising higher in the afterglow of last weeks blowout fourthquarter report. Out of that are higher as the between alphabet and apple narrows. From 411 billion dollars last year to 12 billion dollars. Who knows . Alphabet will overtake apple. Opening the books at google or alphabet. Abigailu, a doolittle at the nasdaq. Lets get back to politics. We will have a clear idea tonight about who is leading in the president ial campaign. You are looking at a live shot of donald trump at a rally in cedar rapids, iowa. He was introduced by sarah palin. One of the last political events before the caucuses begin later today. The latest Des Moines Register with aows donald trump five point advantage over ted cruz. Speaking in waterloo earlier trump accused ted cruz of opposing ethanol, which is a big industry in iowa. Destroy your will ethanol business, 100 . Betty he will destroy it. A formers now is Republican Communications director. Do you think of Something Like that on the part of trump . Doug it speaks to how close the race is and how donald trump has managed to insert every kind of cruz overcan at ted the last few months. Ted cruz and his campaign have responded pretty forcefully. You see steve king, pretty influential in iowa, really getting into a backandforth with sarah palin. If you had asked most political pundits if steve king and sarah palin it would be fighting each other a few months ago, the answer would have been no. Betty you have called donald trump a danger to the gop. Do you still feel that way . Doug absolutely. I can detach my passions from it and praise and admire how trump has done this. He has knocked ted cruz off his message for the better part of a month. That is why he is leading in iowa. We will see if trump voters do show up in the end. Firsttime caucus goers tend to be unreliable, but trump has just turned the political world on its head. Nobody can look at politics trump has turned the political world on its head. Nobody can look at politics and not know that. Doty if he wins tonight, you think that seals the deal . Doug iowa doesnt always tell us who the winner is going to be. Historically, it hasnt, for about 16 years now. But it windows down the process. Nows down the process. If we have a threeway race, it could still be anyones race to win. Betty what hasnt anyone been able to knock him off his podium . Trump isnt really running on a specific policy. Supportersng on visceral reactions to him. He is tapping into the psyche, the emotions of the voters. Why hasnt anybody been able to knock him off his pedestal . Doug i think a few things. One, nobody has really tried. Write to rise spent about 5 million on him, but that went away. Club for growth spent money on him, but that went away. Attacks have not been very successful. Donald trump is skilled at manipulating media and dominating it. If you are Marco Rubio Mike huckabee, sometimes you have trouble getting your message out if you insult trump, he takes it to the personal level, and that is what we end up talking about. Other speaking about some candidates, jeb bush there was a great article on bloomberg this morning talking about how Goldman Sachs executives have they put their money. They did put it with jeb bush. For the last three months, they have put it with marco. What does that tell you . Oh rubio is gaining support and getting a lot of momentum. He could do well tonight. I think most people think he will be in third. The question is how much in third. If you has momentum out of iowa and into new hampshire, voters may go with him if he has momentum out of iowa and into new hampshire, voters may go with him. His message now is do what i have not been able to do, stop trump. Betty what about clinton and sanders . Do you think this will be another nightmare like 2008 . Nightmare for her like in 2008 . Think she will win, but i think the bernie supporters will show up. These younger voters, college students, for instance, to turn out . The higher the turnout is, the better it is for the outside candidate. I higher turnout is good for bernie and trump. Not onlyto win win, but win by a comfortable margin. If it is close, we will see this fight for another 12 rounds. Betty thank you so much. Bloomberg will have complete indepth preview of the caucuses live from des moines on a special twohour edition of all do you starting at 5 00 p. M. Starting atect 5 00 p. M. Eastern time. We are going to hear more from tom keenes interview with said vice chair Stanley Fischer. Investors are pointing the finger at oil. Why does it hold such a spell over stocks, especially industries that do not rely on oil, have no link to oil . And a look at Companies Reporting after the belt, google avenue after the bell, google celestial haynes celestial. Betty welcome back. I am betty liu. A quick check on the markets. We are pretty much at our highs of the session, the market turning positive in the last 30 minutes or so. Part of the reason is the comments from fed reserve vicechairman Stanley Fischer. One of the things he said and kept stressing to tom keene was how difficult it is to gauge the economy based on recent turmoil in the markets. Uncertainty we are dealing with now started at the turn of the year, the enhanced, higher level of uncertainty. Since we raised the Interest Rates in the middle of december, increasead a very high in employment in the data reported at the beginning of january. So, when you look at the real side of the American Economy and im putting manufacturing somewhat on the side you have has beenarket that strong for a long time and continues to be strong. We have Different Things going but there are some probabilities of increases in Economic Activity in europe and rates which once were thought to be solely chinese. Are other things going on, so we have to wait and see to what extent the financial instability reflects something animal spirits. To thewant to get international question in a moment and the history we saw on friday from the bank of japan i know you will not comment on specific banks. There is a whole ballet of if we are going to have four rate increases. I go back to greenspan and others. Take us inside the debate at the. Ed of the how how do you determine through 2016 though when of those rate increases . Have been reasonably clear on that, i think. Let me first describe the survey of theomic projections 17 members of the open market committee. Every three months, we all fill out a survey. It asks a lot of questions about gross, about inflation, about Interest Rates. The question on Interest Rates is different. ,he Interest Rate forecast Interest Rate projection, is the answer to the question what do you think the appropriate path of Interest Rates will be . That is different than what we say about output and so forth. And there is a range of views. Instance, 4, 3, 2, 1, or the numbers that you specified, there was a range of views as well. When somebody said in the ballpark, he meant its among the numbers being talked about. He did not mean its the only number being talked about. And we dont even need to how many we will do in the coming year. The language in the announcements is we believe it will be gradual, etc. Its not well, we are going to do it four times. We dont have to do it to make that decision. We say the results will depend thehe development of economy and be data dependent. If we knew how often it was going to get done, we could get rid of eight meetings a year, do one a year, and get the whole thing out of the way. We follow information and make our decisions on that basis, not on the basis of a set of predetermined decisions. So, that is the process that takes place, and then we present the summary of those projections. I am not allowed to talk about what individuals thought. Tom am i getting you in trouble right now . You started from the beginning. There were people than you thought it would be a slow process. You have seen it in the press. Everybody in the committee is allowed to say what he or she says or thinks. They are not allowed to say what other people say or think. Have enough people say in they think for you to realize there were some who thought there would be fewer and some who thought there would be quite a few. Reservehat was federal vice chairman Stanley Fischer speaking with tom keene. Stocks are near their eyes. The closes moments away. Their highs. The close is moments away. Betty welcome back. Markets are closing in about 10 minutes time. It looks like we are about to close right at the high of the session. Ramy it looks like said vice chair Stanley Fischer had some good effects on the markets, turning them from red to green. The s p 500 is up the most actually, not up the most, up by about point 1 . 1 . Up the most,. 3 percent. The dow was down by as much as 160 points, now in positive territory. Lets take a look at where the ride has been all day. Intraday on the dow, we can see that when manufacturing and personal spending came in, we saw a dip. We slowly had arise until about 2 003 00. See is when we started to the rise into positive territory. Crude has continued to be a weight on the market. It is down by about 6. 5 , pretty much at session lows. On track to break its fourday winning streak. Lets take a look at how crude and the s p have compared by going into my bloomberg. Over the course of the day, they have moved in tandem with the ups and downs. At 2 15 p. M. , when vice chair Stanley Fischer finished talking, we see this decoupling. Crude fell and is now at session lows. Lets take a look at some individual stock movers. Netflix and tesla both on the rise. There is talk about an act bowl apple acquisition. Netflix had been up by about 6 . There are rumors apple made a bid for netflix to get into the tv market. Target. T its price it does keep its overweight rating, but a lot of people say they dont care and they will keep on buying. Oil is exerting uncommon influence on the stock market, even in industries with seemingly no connection to crude prices. The big question is why. Joining us now, danny berger and oliver running. There seem to be for theories oil is exerting this influence. Number one, the economy. This has everyone worried. Do Falling Oil Prices mean we a recession . Oward there are issues on the supply side, which many people have noted, but also on the demand side. Oil has an impact on credit. Oliver a large portion of the credit space has unlimited hadto funding unlimited access to funding for a long time. Rates were low. They could keep borrowing and keep drilling. To seizeoperations had or they ran out of cash flow, theyhappens to cease or ran out of cash flow, what happens to the bonds . Sellingequity markets off in proportion to the companies that have the worst credit ratings. Dani there is a theory that gas is cheap and that will be great for consumers and consumer spending. But the s p takes a large cue from company spending, and Energy Companies are about 30 of that. It is sizable if Energy Companies cut down on spending. Betty which it looks like the march worm rl the more turmoil there is, the more likely that will happen. Lastly, the pain trade. What does that mean . Oliver its close to what we were talking about. Stocks are the easiest place to sell. We have pain across the board. If you look at january, Asset Classes of all different kinds, there equities, bonds, are a lot of losers across the board. If you are a fund manager, if you manage money and you are trying to figure out where you need to create capital, you do that by selling. If you need cash, you get it by selling. The addedyou have factor of the sovereign wealth fund. Of theset a lot countries who are oilrich nations and have been able to high oilmoney from h prices to go and buy Asset Classes across the board. If they are no longer able to do that, they have to figure out where to get returns, where to get money. They do that by selling stocks. Betty the correlation between stocks and oil is going to continue. absolutely. I think we may have days like today, but investors are expecting the correlation to continue. Is next. E market close dont forget, alphabet earnings are going to be out. Watch for that. Markets are mixed. We are coming off our highs just slightly. Clinics we are moments away from the closing bell. We are moments away from the closing bell. I am scarlet fu. And im alix steel. Joe weisenthal is on assignment. U. S. Stocks rebounding into the close. Hat a day, oil keeps tumbling the question is, what did you miss . Posted a 17 gain, helped by youtube and advertising. And the numbers dont lie. We dissect how oils plunge has taken a toll on axon. But we eight hole on exxon. Ll on exxon. But we begin with the markets. Stocks
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