About five points. Looking here it is actually interesting to see where we are. The dow going negative earlier. China suggesting it could add more stimulus and metal stocks, but Energy Stocks are following as oil is falling. Lets take a look at the s p year to date. We are looking for a loss for the year right now at least. We are down by about two and one third percent with eight trading days left. The index has finished higher in the past three years but we are at least for now on track to break that. Alix we typically see what people call a santa claus rally into the end of the year. At looks like right now we are not on track for that. Your denny research coming out with that us saying that a yearend rally for the s p is actually in doubt. We do have eight trading days left this year and the s p has only done that in the last eight days of the year just five times since the year 1928. In that time, the last eight days of the s p were positive, and it was negative 72 times, 83 . Lets check out global commodity prices. This is what is weighing on the market right now. You can see pretty much read across the board for Energy Stocks, nymex crude down, brent crude down. Our metals are in the green, gold, silver, as well as copper. Were talking about commodities, Energy Taking off about three and a half percent from the return of the sp y today so not a return, the definitely one of the laggards in the market. Now lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. Mark crumpton has more. Mark five suspects are being held in belgium in relation to the paris attacks but the gunman is not related among them. They conducted raids yesterday that lasted five hours. A prime suspect is still being sought. The attacks in paris killed 130 people. For people being questioned about the discovery of a fake bomb in the bathroom of an air france jet bound for paris. It was diverted to kenya yesterday. The device posed no danger but was made to look like an explosive device, and the hoax was the fourth against air france. Lindsey graham is ending his bid for the president ial nomination, but there is still plenty of republican candidates left to choose from. The South Carolina senator announced he is dropping out. 13 gop hopefuls are still in the race. President obama says Donald Trumps exporting the financial anxieties of bluecollar men. In an interview with npr, the president attributes trumps commanding lead in the polls that they are no longer getting the same bargain they got and they were going to a factory and able to support their families on a single paycheck. When you combine those things, there will be anger, frustration, and fear. Schoolnew hampshires districts is closed after receiving a threatening email. 12,000 students are staying home today in nashua. Closed and newre york state opened after dismissing the threat is a hoax. Wordis a look at our first news right now from the bloomberg first word desk. I am mark crumpton. Alix coming up on bloomberg television, Oil Prices Keep plunging, brent sliding to an 11 year low. Is there any and to the collapse in prices. Fears mounting in spain following the election. Alix will welcome back to bloomberg markets. Brent crude trading at an 11 year low on the fear that suppliers will worsen the glut. It is narrowing the difference between wti and brent. Ifl they hit parity, and they do, how long will that last . Shore, stephen is with us from philadelphia. Thank you for talking about my favorite topic today. When you took a look at the spread between wti and brent and you see that narrowing, is that due to wti strength or brent weakness . That is a brent weakness because certainly wti is not strong. Couple of weeks since the opec meeting what we the persiansow will fight one another for market share. Where is this market share . All the growth is in asia. China is in the midst of quantitative easing. They have cut Interest Rates six times in the last 12 months. The rd evaluating their currency. They rd evaluating their currency. Then you look at japan, in its fifth recession since 2008. Fightingsaudi arabia one another for market share in a market that clearly is sick at this time. Here in the United States excuse me. Like it is also a demand story and a supply story. Do you see it like that . Is the weakness justified . There is a major demand issue. When you add on top of that, you have a u. S. Marketplace that is significantly over supplying, and you have inventories that are quite high, there is a lot of crude washing about. Alix both of you bring up the fundamental, supply, demand, oversupply. What part of this is really bearish positioning . Debbie tirted positions versus brent long positions, and wti has been wiped out at a low. Brent position still high. Could we say end of the year rebalancing season . At this point what we have seen is as debbie ti has crashed , its pricesashed have fallen. Open interest has surged. This is clearly a sign that as prices are surging, open interest is their view. As prices falling, open interest rising, there is clearly a tremendous amount of irish on a now coming into this market. Bearish money coming into this market. Want to disconnect from the economics, you start to look and and we areonomy, trading on extreme bearish psychology. Alix i want to bring up this chart from socgen. That fundamentals have actually been rolling over in terms of how much they contribute to the oil crisis, that redline, whereas the yellow line which is the macro environment is becoming much more important. There are many factors influencing it. Theres the overproduction, resiliency of production in the u. S. It has been quite remarkable ever since the price. In june 2014. There is currency issues as well , so a lot of things coming together at one time. That paint a very challenging picture for the emps. Alix what is share value for oil . If you take a look at your cash cost, the operators have come down the cost curve and become more efficient. Roughly around 30 or less. Alix we are not even there yet. You are around their. Alix stephen, fair value for oil . It is also geological specific but what we are seeing now, or the bulls have gotten it wrong over the past year is that production is much more resilient. Higher cost production has been exercised out of the market so on this standpoint, absolutely, we are looking at 30 i think is aggressive. I respect vinces perspective. I think on a more general term, i would say 40 to 45 is attractive. What we are seeing now as far as the resiliency in production is the bank. The banks are looking at their ps, and are allowing them to kick the production can down the road which is why we cannot get u. S. Production above 9 billion 9 billion gallons. Alix you have to pay the bank so you have to keep pumping oil. The other part of the Energy Complex that gets less attention that is very dramatic, our natural gas prices. Look at the destruction that is happened in the past few months. I just want to max out this chart. Lows that we have not seen since like 1998. Vince, how many producers get put out of business because of this . The dynamics and the Natural Gas Market relative to the oil market, if you step outside, it is quite warm. You have the secular output colliding against a cyclical demand story. You have not seen the weather come through. You still have very resilient production. Oil, if you take a look at you are saying fair value for oil prices is 40 or 45. What about natural gas . That is a different animal because it is a domestic market. So if you are looking at production in marsalis, gas is well below two dollars. You are still getting record production and in fact, the only Thing Holding back marsalis production is a lack of infrastructure, a lack of get that into demand market areas. There is a much lower threshold as we are talking about two dollars gas. That is 18 a barrel gas equivalent. Gas,roblem with natural you only have two drivers, industrial demand and the weather. I have maintained for the past year the u. S. Industrial complex is certainly in session. You factor it in. It is going to be 80 days 80 degrees and washington, d. C. On christmas eve. There is no demand. Alix thank you very much. Still ahead, a new political era for spain. Now for thetime Bloomberg Business flash, a look at some of the biggest is the stories and news. Fired shkreli has been from his position as ceo. He has also resigned from the board of directors. He told wall street journal he was targeted because of his controversial drug high hike. J. P. Morgan chase has agreed to pay 150 million to individuals cert hurt. They were accused in a Class Action Lawsuit of issuing false and misleading statements of its trading activity, to try to describing risky trading as mere hedges. That is your business flash. Lets head over to our markets desk where Ramy Inocencio has a look at some of the top performers in the s p. Ramy first off, to natural gas. Shares are rallying now, up by more than 11 and a half percent. This is the top performer on the s p right now. This is also their best day since july after the company said they will keep its current dividend, as well as delay any future stock sales until late 2017. Shares have lost more than half their value yeartodate so investors are definitely seeing a positive day. Hospital stocks are also among the best performers because help Exchange Enrollment numbers were announced after the january 1 sign up deadline. Take a look at these company movers. Tenet healthcare up 8. 8 . Universal Health Services up by nearly 3 . 7 million americans sign up for help exchanges by that december 18 deadline. Back to gaske you companies in the energy and gas sectors, those are also on the rise. Consol energy up by more than 7 . Southwestern and cap it up by about 4 . This is therefore street gain following the rebound in gas prices. After the first cold snap in a month to actually hit the eastern u. S. , which we saw this past weekend, but that could be shortlived because Christmas Day temperatures could very well hit a record of around 60 degrees. Christmas eve could even hit 70 here. Alix what . That does not make any sense. I was really cold the other day. Thank you very much, Ramy Inocencio. There is more uncertainty ahead for spain. The Ruling Conservative Party fell short of a majority. After decades of a two party ,ystem, two newcomer parties stocks and bonds sank on the possibility of instability ahead. The ibex fell more than 2 today. Director of european thank you for joining us. What happens here, do we see another round of elections in 2016 . That is definitely a possibility. We will try to avoid that. One of the two new parties, citizens and england in english, is the party that underperformed. It was a bit of a surprise for the markets. Parties, they will try to form a coalition. S may be the one more willing to go back to elections, but it is really complex to find a stable coalition, even a coalition that can start by winning the confidence of congress. Alix what was the cause . Here we look at the rise of the nonestablishment party. It is the disenfranchised that take the cake. The same in france. What was the cause in spain that triggered this . Marco the first cause for the emos is the pain of the crisis. Spain did reform partially and butted performing better, the cost was very high in terms of unemployment and youth unemployment. That pushed podemos higher. Then came the liberals, the new citizens party. By somebably would help legal controversy around the traditional parties above all the centerright parties. Alix take a look inside the bloomberg terminal. I am looking at spanish real gdp versus eurozone real gdp. Spanish is almost double of what eurozone is. Do we see some kind of deceleration . Marco we do see a deceleration in q2. It was growing three times faster than the euro area. Timescannot go three faster than the euro area forever. There should be a deceleration. Still, if you leave aside a moment Political Uncertainty, i think spain will continue to outperform the euro area next year and the following year. By a lesser extent, but it will continue to outperform the euro area. Alix particularly on the 10 year bonds for spain versus beer tradingample, 20 basis points higher than they are in italy. Do you feel like that is justified . Marco it depends on where you are looking. How quick the economy is growing, and spain is growing much better than italy. Italy is not growing and has not been growing for two decades. He still also have a lot of political problems in italy. The difference that italy does not have a huge external debt, they are not different from the u. S. Or france. The problem for spain is that the net external debt of spain is three times higher than the one of italy. They need to keep Investor Confidence to be able to have yields at the current level. Alix marco, thank you very much. Also in that Political Uncertainty ahead for spain after the elections, i want to get some insight from Tom Mackenzie who joins us from the ground of bloomberg news. Procedurally, what is the next step that happens over the next few weeks . Tom there is the horsetrading that is going on right now, all the main parties went back to their home bases and started discussing how they would play this one out. It is going to be very complicated, days, weeks, maybe longer. By january 13 all the newly elected lawmakers will have to gather in parliament and they will have two months to try to elect a government. If that does not happen, we are heading toward new elections and therefore more uncertainty for spain, with all the consequences you have been talking about. Alix what happens if they cannot form a government . What is the role of king versus congress . Tom as i just kind of covered, they are going to have two month of lawmakers in the parliament building. The king will have a stronger role than he has had really since their return to democracy in spain in 1978. He will be negotiating with the parties over their leaders and who they are going to put forward, but ultimately it is going to be the lawmakers in the building behind me that decide that. Elections and a rerun of elections very much sit on the table, and the economic consequences you have touched on with your guest. This economy is growing at 3 but they have massive debt, 21 unemployment. Almost 50 for those under the age of 25, and the Prime Minister has added new jobs but many are just temporary. That is from the construct Corruption Scandal surrounding his party. At led to the votes for these two smaller parties. Structural reform is needed here in spain Going Forward. Alix Tom Mackenzie joining us in madrid, spain. The big bond trade for 2016, i some of the worlds biggest Money Managers are going to europe. Live from bloomberg headquarters in midtown manhattan, you are watching bloomberg television. Lets start with the bloomberg first word. Mark thanks. The man suspected of buying the rifles in the california massacre will injure pleas in a Court Hearing today. He is facing weapons in terrorism related counts. Convictions could carry a 35 year prison term. Police say that he bought the assault rifles used by his friend and his friends wife in the massacre three weeks ago. Authorities say a woman who drove her car into a crowd did it intentionally. One person was killed and 11 others were hurt. The driver is being tested for drugs and alcohol. A threeyearold in the car with her at the time was unharmed. Spanish government bonds are questions over the political direction. Voters chose a fragmented. Arliament tough negotiations will be needed to form a ruling coalition. The Ruling Conservative Party fell short of the votes needed to govern alone. The opposition socialists, led by pedro sanchez, gained parliament seats. They are expected to join with other troops to form a voting bloc. That is a look at our news right now from the first word nest. Desk. Word i mark crumpton. The 16 is expected to be a banner year for Money Managers. Companies like like rock and pimco are like blackrock and theo are betting on writing wave. Joining us, lisa abramowicz, from bloombergs new gadfly section. Been saying have dont fight the fed. Now they are saying, dont fight mario draghi. They are saying we will do whatever it takes. Frankly the latest statement this month was underwhelming. Tot said, if you are going bet on european government debt, why not go for the risky is stuff that has some yield on it and is not negative on the yield . That is why people are going to places like greece, which is still on the brink of economic bailout. Ty despite the its bonds have gained more than 20 this year. Italy and spain. Why not go for bonds that have some yield . Alix the issue is it is not perfect to there. We just talked about the spanish elections. Small italian banks are going belly up. Talk about some of the risks. Lisa there are a lot of risks. The average yield on sovereign debt from italy, portugal, ireland, and spain is absolutely nothing. This is a potential risk should hiccups. Any you are facing true economic risk. That said, Lower Oil Prices benefit theately eurozone, and realistically, inflation has got to go up. Alix but to your point about the risk, if you are betting on mario draghi, if you do see a banking crisis in italy, portuguese banks go under, that will only incite the ecb to do more. That is the money manager thesis for the debt on those bonds. Either way the risk of buying negative yield and getting blown out of the water seems more problematic to Money Managers than a pond with a yield being backed by central bank, even if it is tied to the riskiest governments. Alix its not like they are betting on a sixmonth turnarounds. If youre getting 3. 5 , 4 , that looks pretty decent compared to what german 30year bonds are alix yielding. Alix gadfly is on the bloomberg terminal at gadfly