We are also going to be talking to the winner of the masters. Before we get to that, how about news. We will take you to the bulletin. The top stories of the morning. It is a good day for jp morgan shareholders. Profits beat analysts estimates climbing to 12 . It is the first time that has happened. Since 2010. The of jp morgans Investment Bank said high volatility help to drive the quarter. Shares in the company are up in early trading. Good news for wells fargo. They Beat Estimates with lower rates. That helped buyers refinance debt. They are the most viable u. S. Bank. Investors do not seem impressed, shares are falling. Retail sales fell short. It was the first gain in four months. The biggest advance in over a year. Overall the figures show americans are being cautious with their wallets. Even with savings from lower gas prices. It may take a bigger boost and wage growth before they loosened their Purse Strings and hit the shopping malls. The Worlds Largest maker of Health Care Products has First Quarter profits that Beat Estimates. Up 3 at Johnson Johnson. Johnson johnson is looking to revitalize its pharmaceutical lineup. Its popular hepatitis c and blood thinner medication has new competition and the strong dollar is hurting sales internationally. Another agreement between amazon and a book publisher. Harpercollins. They agree to a multiyear deal covering the sale of a print and ebook business. Sticking points have been the price of digital books and shared revenue. Amazon has asked for discount saying it would boost sales. Publishers and some authors have balked at the proposal. A recordsetting performance in china with the latest installment of the fast and the furious movie franchise. Furious 7 broke chinas one Day Box Office record taking in more than 63 million. The previous record holder transformers 4 had 36 million. I should move to china i should not move to china anytime soon because the movies they like are not my jam. Stephanie you are not a fast and furious kind of gal . How big of a byte is the strong dollar taking out of the u. S. Economy . A new model quantifies Dollar Strength and the inevitable rise in investment rates in stocks. Our economist is with us to tell us what it means in the months and years ahead. What is your view on the pace of the u. S. Economy . The First Quarter was disappointing. 1 after retail sales this morning. We think this weakness will be temporary. We are looking for a strong rebound in the Second Quarter. Some of the weakness is inconsistent with other signals. Pointing painting a less bad picture than the gdp. There was probably some weather impact. We are looking for 3. 5 in the Second Quarter and beyond that 2. 5 to 3 over the next couple of years is where we are. Clearly that is above the trend. The trend in the lower numeral twos. In the lower 2s. We do not see the urgency on why the fed needs to get off of their anytime soon. Stephanie jan if you take out the weather, what will make the list . Jan two things. One, the gdp numbers understate the growth phase in the First Quarter. If you look at the evidence which is just as valuable as the hard on the numbers, the Consumer Confidence numbers, the regional Federal Reserve service, they have softened somewhat. A are consistent with better than 1 . Hugh have the weather on top of that. That is worth quite a bit. Erik let me get this straight. On the one hand, the feds should be on hold because the data is not there to support a rate increase, on the other hand you are looking at the data we are seeing. Based on things that are more say in tangible in nature, like confidence you feel the economy is doing better than the eta suggests . Jan the growth phase will be fine. Theyre still slack in the economy. Inflation is low. Wages are growing 2 . Maybe a touch above. Still, well below the normal growth rate that you would expect in a fully employed labor market of 3 or 4 . When i put that together, even in a decent growth environment i think there is good case to wait. Erik how long . These things are hard to predict. How long until we see the wage growth that has been so long in coming . Jan i would expect some improvement over the remainder of the year. I do fake, the leading indicators are pointing to that. Not just the antidotal end of stories about mcdonalds and walmart lifting wages, but wage growth in the corporate sector. There is the question, what do you expect. What do you see in the data . The fact that we have seen week wage Growth Numbers week wage Growth Numbers is something you need to take into account. Stephanie are you taking a closer look at your numbers and predictions when you hear investors are saying this looks like a schalke like deja vu all over again in 2004 . Jan 2004 was a point when the economy was starting to do a little better. A lot of the excesses started more in late 2005 2000 six, 2000 seven. If this is about financial instability, i do not think were at a point where financial instability looks likely. As far as the economy is concerned, i do think that good growth is likely, just like in 2004 and 2005, you have good growth. Erik im intrigued by the work you have done on financial conditions. Interest rates, the dollar, oil prices. Lets walk through that. Everyone wants to know when the fed will hike. Eventually it will. We should eventually see an increase in longterm bond yields. What will that do to the economy . Jan an increase in longterm bond yields by itself, out of thin air, will mean weaker growth. Youll get a shock to the bond market that will impact mortgage rates. There are other channels of transmission. It will mean less growth. Usually, it does not come out of fan air. It is the flipside of Something Else in the economy. If that Something Else is better growth, stronger demand from abroad, stronger demand domestically, you have to take that into account. In general, higher bond yields lower equity prices, stronger currency. Those things mean less growth. That is why we look at it, and our financial conditions. Erik the dollar, in your work, you said a 10 appreciation cuts gdp growth by half a percentage point. The dollar has increased by 10 already. Does that suggest that gdp growth in 2015, all being equal, would be half a percentage point faster . Jan we have seen more than 10 since last summer. This year has not been as high. Over that time, you have seen more than a 10 broad wages appreciation. That should shave a half point to three quarters of a point off of growth. You have a large drop in oil prices. From a growth perspective, our model would say it is roughly offsetting. At the moment, when you look at the data, the negative effects seem to be showing up more quickly than the positive effects. We are waiting for better numbers on the consumer. We have not seen those. I expect an improvement to a large extent, driven by real income boost. From our perspective, theres definitely some areas suffering from the strong dollar, but some areas should be benefiting. Stephanie lets talk oil prices. Do you think they will stay in the 50 range . Jan in the near term, i think there is a good chance we will see lower numbers. Our commodity strategists think that. The market is oversupplied. The supplydemand fundamentals point to lower prices. Longer term, we dont think 40 oil is where we will end up. We would look for somewhat higher prices. Erik quickly, why are low oil prices, the oil shark has not done more to goose the economy . Jan the retail Sales Numbers dont show a big boost but we have seen somewhat of a pickup in consumer spending. If you look at the university of Michigan Confidence numbers they are showing a large boost. I would not give up that expectation yet. It is too early to say we are not getting an oil boost. Erik the chief economist at goldman sachs. Jan hatzus. Stephanie Ceo Tim Armstrong is counting on a new platform to boost advertising sales. We have an exclusive interview. Erik olivia blush i will be with us. Erik it is time to bring you up to speed on the top stories of the morning. The deal that could create biggest maker of Wireless Networking equipment. Note yeah is an advance talks to acquire alcatel. The deal could value alcatel at more than 13 billion. There is no certainty an agreement can be reached. Both companies are saying that. In part because the French Company will be looking for job guarantees. Shares are soaring. Note year has dropped 4 . Bill ackman talks about Student Loans. Ackman says there is no way the students will be able to pay back the money. The government says 9 of outstanding balances, 100 billion dollars, are in default. Drawing parallels to the housing collapse. That could be overdone. A notebook used by alan trying has sold for a Million Dollars at auction. It is the only manuscript known to exist. He was effected in last years movie, the imitation game. Coming up in 10 minutes the imf has the forecast. We will speak with the chief economist of ims. When president s, business moguls, want to hold a party. Theres one guy to call. We will sit down with the masters champion. Stephanie a milliondollar party. Please. More than that. Moving on. Aol dialing up into the advertising world. A new platform with ad placement on how well they do with audiences in real time. It is called one by and well. Cory johnson is with the ceo of aol, Tim Armstrong. I am nervous for you. If Tim Armstrong nose in real time what you are interested in, that could lead to dark advertisements. Cory it is disturbing. Thank you for joining us. Kind of like a marketer and advertiser becomes almost like a wall street trader having realtime feedback and platforms to exercise art. Is that a way to think of this . The advertiser becomes in touch with real time . Cory tim it is nice to be on the show and nice to see you in silicon valley. This is the biggest pivot point in media. From the way that traditional media was done and internet media. The automation and targeting at advertising at a deeper level across mobile, internet, ott. One by aol is the forefront product for the next generation of internet advertising systems. As you described, it is the most powerful time for marketplaces in the world. A well is stepping up today with the most powerful futuristic marketplace for advertising. We spent five years of work and we are excited. We know the power of the product. Cory you have done so many acquisitions of companies. Is this the stitching together of technologies into a single platform . Tim we started as a team making larger bets before other people. One in video, one in advertising, one in global content brands. When you think of those three areas, we have put together aols historic platforms together with the most exciting acquisitions in our space. Aol is a top three player in video, most distributors content on facebook for news at the huffington post, the newsroom behind me for social, and today for the programmatic platforms. No one has a more advanced system that touches att more than aol. Ott more than aol. The stitching together of the strategy is important. We have a 2030 year strategy in front of us. Cory i think of what clever marketers do. I had the ceo of carls jr. On before the super bowl. They went to the markets that had the most impact. They recognize they would not be mcdonalds, so they went with a particular ad reaching a particular young male customer. They were particular on how they would contact customers on the web and social media. Going after that demographic. It seems like we have shifted from demographics to results focused. How might that work in a real case example . Tim the easiest way to think about it, is into is intuit taking advantage of a singular trend. Media was built in bulk and sent out in bulk. Now it is built on a singular basis. And sent on a singular basis. As an advertiser like intuit we are in taxis in super bowl right now. Multi devices and multi formats talking individually to consumers. And you think about the future of connecting it will be on a singular basis. That is why social networking is important. Our platform is the first platform to take advantage of the singular nature of the singular content going to singular consumers. When you look at the recent tv statistics, the fact that all human beings in this country are Walking Around with machines in their pockets that are as powerful as a cable box all of our systems are built to deliver highquality content and advertising in a singular way to everyones pocket. That will be a very significant shift for the entire media and Internet Business with the next two or three decades. Cory theres a technological problem. Smartphones dont accept cookies. How can you track the efficacy of an ad if you cant get the feedback . Tim the internet has been cookiebased. Mobile is about device targeting. We have 100 million devices in the United States we understand and can crosslink between a mobile device and desktop and ott. That creates a powerful union if you think about the way consumers consume media. Either on broadcast, newspaper, or digital. Today with one by aol, we can cross format and target in general. It makes what cookie targeting was into a more powerful way because it is cross devices. When you think about future advertising, a lot of people think technology will the flight at prices. I will make two bets. It will get better and more creative for consumers and you will have prices go up. You have a 600 million industry with a lot of ads we dont know how they work. Imagine how long they will spend when you know how each individual consumer works. It will be a very powerful change. Cory thank you very much. We appreciate your time. Erik coming up we will hear from the imf chief economist talking about the impact of a stronger dollar, a weaker euro the outlook for the global economy. Live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is Market Makers with Erik Schatzker and stephanie ruhle. Erik welcome back. Youre watching Market Makers on bloomberg television. Im Erik Schatzker. Stephanie im stephanie ruhle. Jpmorgan posted Quarterly Earnings that heat estimates. The First Quarter revenue from stocks and bonds increased for the First Time Since 2010. Higher volatility roosted volume. Last year trading revenues fell as the markets were unusually calm. Sales rose 910 survey percent in march after a decline in february blaming bad weather in the northeast. Even though the mark increase fell short, it was the biggest gain in over year. The imf says the stronger dollar is helping japan and the euro area, but taking steam out of the u. S. Recovery. The imf kept its projections from Global Growth unchanged of 3. 5 . The imf is depicting a World Economy shaped by swings in currency and a drop in oil prices. It is a record the irs must hate. 54 companies in the s p 500 are partially exempt from corporate taxes. More than twice the numbers for years ago. The reason is in version. American Companies Move their tax address overseas and pay less in taxes. U. S. Corporate tax rate is 35 . The highest in the developed world. Very few Companies Pay that rate. The chairman of the Senate ForeignRelations Committee says Congress Must have its say on the new iran nuclear deal. Bob corker told bloomberg tv his committee may vote today on a bill giving congress 52 days to review and possibly reject an agreement. Bob corker says congressional oversight may help in the investigate in the negotiations. Bob corker most felt congress would eventually play a role. That strengthens the negotiators from the wests hands. This puts in place a process. The administration is free to complete its negotiations. Stephanie president obama has threatened to veto any bill giving congress a say in the agreements. An Airline Baggage handler decided to take a nap and got more than he counted on. He woke up midair. He dozed off in the cargo hold of an American Airlines airplane. It took off from seattle for l. A. He woke up and started hitting on the walls. Listen to the video captured by a passenger on the airplane. I would been panicked if i was on the airplane. [banging] stephanie i would have been having snakes on a plane nightmares for months. The captain declared an emergency, returned to seattle and the man was found. The man was taken to a hospital, and has been released. Did they fire him . Erik good question. Sleeping on the job. Stephanie if i was on the plane, we were grounded for an emergency, and it was that, i would not be happy. Erik lets go deeper into the imfs economy. Here is the chief economist, olivier blanchard. You and your colleagues have to balance the good with the bad looking into the future. What factors are working the most wrongly in the favor of Economic Growth . Most strongly in the favor of Economic Growth . Olivier the strong dollar is helping the World Economy. Hoping the advanced economies that needed the most. T