Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Market Makers 20140502 : compareme

BLOOMBERG Market Makers May 2, 2014

Washington for urgent talks with president obama. With eachalking other. The german chancellor and american president speak about an aggressive russia. We will bring it to you live at noon. Welcome to Market Makers. Im stephanie ruhle. Erik schatzker is out. Im joined by the well manicured matt miller. Cure ifd to get a mani you were going to be on set with me. It is friday. Jobs day. The headline number is the best it has been in more than two years. Payrolls rose by 288,000 in april, far more than estimated. Unemployment dropped to its lowest level since before the collapse of lehman brothers. But there is a lot beyond the headlines. I want to bring in michael mckee. You are the man who delivers the real deal. Walk us through it. The headlines look great but the market is not excited. No champagne. The headline number is good but the details are not as good. That is why we are seeing markets back off from their initial excitement. A a tale of te it is tale of two surveys. We are coming back from the weather. The Household Survey, same measure, the people were employed. We lost 73,000 jobs in that survey. More than 700,000 people leave the labor force with chuck drives unemployment which drives unemployment down. Why are people not coming back and . Discouraged workers feeling better about things. We did not see a rise in earnings. There still questions about how strong this is. Onemonth does not make a trend. We had a good headline number, but does this mean we are Getting Better . It does raise the 12 month average back to 200,000. It does. But we have not had a lot of movement. We have to see if that is sustained. You want to see earnings starting to go up. If the Household Survey is telling us the labor market is slack, you are not going to see that. In thender if the drop Labor Participation rate means more people are retiring. That is the answer you typically lls, and more people are running into inheritances. If you know them, let me know. [laughter] that was a joke a debate aboutn how much is discouraged workers and how much is people retiring. This is a big drop for one month. It is a surprise. It has been calculated if we maintained the Participation Rate, the Unemployment Rate would have gone up to 6. 8 . People did not, want to look for work. It dropped to the lowest fevel since 1978, before ste was even born. Dont try to make up with me now. Michael mckee giving us the real deal. In rick. Bring he oversees almost 700 billion of fixed income investments at blackrock. What did you think of the number . People seemed excited at first. But Labor Force Participation does not look good. It is a strong number. We had a tough First Quarter in terms of the weather. Growth is improving. You expect a stronger number. We continue to hold to our view that you still have a structural problem with unemployment. We would argue Monetary Policy is not fixing it. A low rate does not help. The Participation Rate dropping. Average Hourly Earnings being soft. What does it mean for markets . Youre not seeing wage growth. Better, but you expect it to be better at this point. What do you think about Monetary Policy . Janet yellen has been in for a few months. Do you feel positive on the action she has taken . Yes. I think she will do a superb job. I also think keeping the funds rate at zero is not going to improve implement. Improved employment. With growth picking up, we think that should happen. Within financial conditions should be part of the commentary Going Forward we think financial conditions should be part of the commentary Going Forward. Youre not getting wage pressure of significance. They will stay for a longer time. That has challenges. Good grades, but i think it has to evolve. Do low rates discourage hiring . I think so. Excessively low Interest Rates does not necessarily improve the l acceleration rate of employment. People 55 and above are staying in the workforce longer because they cannot afford to retire. You dont create enough velocity of employment. They are in better shape. They are healthy. They are not old anymore. No doubt. But you take the trend rate of that and think about what has happened since the crisis, we have taken a new leg in terms of not retiring. You will live until you are 90, so you might as well work. You cannot retire because your income if not is not significant enough. To not get real visibility on the economy because it is being stimulated monetary policies. That stimulation is coming out the tune of 10 billion a month. It will be gone in four months. Janet yellen said we will raise rates. Doesnt look like 2015 it will be going up again . Absolutely. I think you can get there faster. I think you can move it up without causing debilitating effect on the economy. Not shocking the markets. C. E. O. s affect the economy . They can innovate, hire, and cha nge. Your incentive to buy back your stock, think about the Business Risk you take. Think about how you can drive your etfs by buying back shares. Global as we are in this gdp growth, you wait and buy back stock. By normalizing, can we be at a 1 funds rate . I think the fed will make it clear the long rate longterm rate is lower than it has been historically. The yield curve can stay flat. Long rates dont move up much. That is where we will be going. You have been a fixed income guy for three decades. Almost. Does it worry you we are bubbling up . When i look at the credit market and see how tight spreads are and how hot the deals are, it is making me worried. It makes everyone worried. You think about where we are today. As long as you believe policy and todays number, if you easier,he ecb will be japan is easy, china is in easy mode. You have easy financial conditions around the world. It means you need to capture yield. It can go on for some time. That is why i think we can normalize rates in the u. S. Faster. I do worry about the excesses building. Because weo ask you are looking at pfizer trying to get over to astrazeneca, it seems lately every company is sitting on billions in cash outside the country. They are not bringing it back in. When they do, they get blasted by the markets. I think you hit the point that is not getting enough play today. That, are a company like your incentive is to look at an effective tax regime. Is why we have to shift from monetary to fiscal policy. Ifow the money to come back it is spent on hiring. Initiatives that continue to grow small business. If we dont get the fiscal policies, if you dont have that, companies are not consented incented. Why would you not go overseas . There is no reason. What are you excited about besides tesla . Rates, we think growth will be better and Interest Rates will go higher. There is money to be made in the fixed income markets. You can take advantage of opportunities around the world. There are places to make money in fixed income. Think about emerging markets. It created tremendous opportunity with countries performing well. Commercial mortgages are still interesting in the u. S. Because you did not have this flood of money like the credit markets. We think there is money to be made there. You have got to be tactical and aggressive. Theres still money to be made in fixed income. You have to manage it differently. A pleasure. Thanks for joining us. We are going to take a break. When we come back, ukraine strikes back. Troops are trying to recapture the city taken by prorussian rebels. A clash of the titans in vegas. George clooney versus steve wynn. Steve wynn told me what their showdown was all about. Dont tell anyone onthis is Market Makers bloomberg. Overseas, Ukraine Forces are on the offensive tried to take back territory currently controlled by prorussian separatists. Is government in kiev ignoring demands from Vladimir Putin to pull back troops. Merkel meets with president obama today at the white house to talk about the situation. I want to bring in ryan. He has been covering the conflict since it began. We are hearing about an n. Meeting. Ou anu. M. It is getting serious. It is being held at russias initiative. They requested the meeting. Russia saying they find what has taken place in easterner crane today to be disgusting, a punitive operation. They are referring to a Ukrainian Military operation that began before dawn local time in the east of the country to recapture a city held by separatists. It started with military helicopters going in, which were almost immediately shot down. At least one we can be sure were shot down. At least one pilot killed. One pilot was captured by separatists. Russian television has been showing video they claim is of the pilot captured by separatists getting medical assistance. It is not just the one pilot now captive in the separatist stronghold. There are at least eight Foreign Military observers froin slaviansk. This situation is heating up. Ukrainian forces still on the outskirts of the city with the separatists on the inside. Fighting is still underway. We always think about oligarchs when we think about putin and russia. What about ukraine . Alsoe been hearing kiev relies on oligarchs for defense funding on the eastern border. That is a good point. In part that is true. The ukrainian Central Government does not have resources clout in the east of the country to deal with the conflict. Oligarchs themany mayors and governors of the east of ukraine. They are funding this in many ways, the push back. The Central Government in ukraine is keen on keeping them on their side and not being coopted by the russian side, which is also interested in them cooperating with it. Thank you for giving us the latest. Eastern, we are going to hear from president obama and german chancellor Angela Merkel in a joint News Conference from the white house rose garden. You can watch it here on bloomberg t. V. Or our life events channel. Alwaysident obama is late consistently for every press conference. But Angela Merkel is punctual. Will they balance each other out . And he will follow her lead hopefully he will follow her lead. You can tweet us your bets. Coming up, a new documentary takes aim at americas sweet tooth. Eating sugar may become socially unacceptable. Stay with us. Youre watching Market Makers. I should you go, remind our audience how special this place is during the commercial breaks. It is fantastic when we are live. We need a webcam. Do you have any idea what we were just discussing . Back to the show. Of bestie rates have skyrocketed over the past three decades. Obesity rates have skyrocketed over the past are decade. A new documentary points the finger at sugar. It has a roster of physicians and food writers. Julie hyman got a sneak peak of fed up which comes out one week from today. The obesity rate is about 36 . 69 of americans are overweight. 70 of americans are overweight. Yes. The film also talks about people who do not necessarily bad but have fat around their organs, which can be dangerous. Skinny on the outside and sat on the inside. I maybe that way myself. If you look at what happened in the early 1980s when research started coming out that thingsthat were bad for you, the Food Industry started offering more lowfat choices. The problem is if you strip a product of fact, you also strip it of taste. To compensate for that, they boosted the amount of sugar. Also when1980s is you started to see the obesity epidemic the cup pick up. It has skyrocketed until today. Fitness Club Memberships have gone up at a high rate. Ing anody is exercis counting calories. They have joined the gym. I dont know that they are exercising. The contention is when you see lowfat products, they tend to be high in sugar. They may say healthy, but they still have high sugar. This isg to the movemenie, why we are seeing the huge spike in obesity rates. Are we going to see any takeaways . Is it just an excuse for product makers to come out with more stuff . Probably. The filmmakers want people to make changes and for it to be a bottomup approach. Couricurck katie spoke about the film yesterday. Maybe this will be a bottomup approach. People will see it and make changes in their daily lives. They will get angry about the fact we are swimming upstream when it comes to many issues, and they will try to motivate their elected officials to do something about it. She is a producer. She is also the narrator. Truthis an inconvenient kind of film. She was the producer of inconvenient truth. The hope is people will start cutting sugar from their diet. Should they come after regulators . Numbermichelle obamas one missions is to get people active and healthy. Where do the regulators fall . They ok what is on shelves. They also subsidize the farming industry and Food Industry. The usda is the regulator for the health Food Industry. At the same time, it is a promoter of the Food Industry. The film contends this is a conflict of interest. It makes sense. It is great to be able to point the finger somewhere. Youou live in new york, dont see as much obesity as the middle of the country. Im sure everyone has noticed that. It is shocking. You cannot miss it. We eat just as much sugar as everyone in the middle of the country, right . I dont think we do in new york city. Think about how much we have lost. If you live in detroit, you are walking to your car. We have to take a commercial. When we come back, more with steve wynn. Live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is Market Makers with Erik Schatzker and stephanie ruhle. Im stephanie ruhle. Here for Erik Schatzker. He is fly fishing. Am i allowed to say that . He is on assignment. Steve wynn runs one of the largest casino empires in the world. He is worth 3. 1 billion. As recently as 2005, nearly all of his resort revenues came from his las vegas business. With sin city slowing, it is all about macau. I caught up with him for an interview. I want to start with what he had to say about why theres so much to be made in asia. The opportunity in the cal is cauterrific it makes in ma it makes other things looked less than terrific. It is true we are primarily a chinese company. That is probably going to look even more so as our third hotel is being completed in the next 18 months. There will come a point where the ratio of domestic to chinese earnings is even greater. You are the first in macau thatave a new project could cost more than 3 billion. Do you worry you will saturate the asian market when the chinese economy is slowing . In the last three or four macau havehotels in been steadily increasing in earnings in spite of the fact the amount of casinos has nearly doubled. Our competitors have built a beautifulnew built new wellthoughtout projects, yet we are still growing. The market has been expanding at a rate that has allowed the market to add supply because demand has exceeded it. Everybody is experiencing growth year over year in spite of the fact the amount of enterprises have increased. Palace started the wynn several years ago and it will be 2015, we at the end of anticipated the market would grow adequately for us to prevail and have a good business. I want to add the government of macau made it clear they were capping the amount of tables allowed in the market. They were not going to permit unregulated growth. They were going to control and hold down the amount of tables added. They wereit clear going to allow growth and expansion to move in step. They were not going to allow ambitious developers to run wildly ahead. That happened in las vegas. Is the government easier to work with here . The government is more predictable and china than in the United States. The government in nevada is very easy to work with because we are the industry in the town. Gaming and tourism is everything in nevada. The political environment is extremely friendly and understanding of that industry. The federal government in the United States is more unpredictable and unfriendly to business than china. , as counterintuitive as it may be, it is absolutely true. You can ask any American Businessman in both places. As an American Businessman, you have housekeepers to executives. How is the rollout of healthcare. Gov as well as the pressure to increase minimum wage affecting your business and consumer . Half of my employees belong to the restaurant and culinary workers union. The other half are being insured by me, by the company. Since the Affordable Care act began to come into effect over a year ago with children up to 26 years old, my insurance costs for nonunion employees increased by 43 last year and will another in september by 43 . The unions is that going to kill American Business . That is totally irrational for the same program we are paying 43 more. It is because the government has impetuously, without thought and ped into this area of extremely technical information. Everybody that is a Health Care Provider could have been happy to explain how we could Lower Health Care costs and the government could be helpful. None of that was ever asked for were given. Instead, we got 2700 pages of the worst single piece of legislation in my lifetime. Does it make you not want to do business in the u. S. . Want to change administrations and get more thoughtful leadership in washington. When i think about who is in

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