not going to balance the market, we have to hit the marginal supplier, and that is north america, and we need to look for lower prices in the short run. >> saudi arabia pushed opec to maintain production levels over objections. china has overtaken japan as the world's largest stock market, with a market cap climbing to $4.5 trillion. it could go higher. meanwhile, the japanese market is down over 3% due partly to the weakening japanese yen. there is also increasing pressure on the airbag maker takada. the move comes after the u.s. look nationwide. five deaths are linked to the airbags. split parliament voted to google apart, separating the search engine from other businesses. however, the resolution carries no legal weight. google has been the subject of an antitrust investigation from the eu for four years. if the crowds are not as large as black friday, maybe it is because many people did their shopping online. it was a record-breaking day for target, which had it biggest online day ever. walmart headed second-biggest online day -- had its second-biggest online day. i was on amazon myself. opec said they would not cut production levels despite a global glut. more.hilcote has much there was not speculation opec would cut production prices, so why did we see oil prices fall so much? >> it is a good question. while there was an expectation that they would not cut production, nobody expected they would wait another six months to reconvene to look at oil prices again. that was a surprise. people thought they would roll over their production budget and then have an emergency meeting in about three months time because, obviously, the price of oil has been retreating quickly and you would have thought they would want to get together quickly to keep an eye on it, and take action if they need to, but they do not seem to be at all concerned. not at all, which means, what, a freefall for the price of oil? >> it might be a freefall. think about it this way -- the saudi's got their way. they might not be interested in a higher oil price because they think there is a supply glut, but they think it is coming from shallamerica and producers. they want to take them out of the market, take them out of the business. the gulf countries produce $30 a barrel. that shall producers are at $60 a barrel. they think if they can see the price fall, those companies will belly up. we saw this in 1996. oil was about $10, and the saudis kept it going. it really punished houston. nobody thinks it has to go to $10, but $60 is where you can extract pain in places like north dakota. >> in terms of oil production, you mentioned north dakota and other areas for u.s. shale oil. we will see competition between shell oil here in the u.s. and opec? >> that is the idea, market share, and trying to hold onto market share in the united states. , while it has produced a lot of oil, the gulf, trees looked countries like to point to producexpensive and it ain't they can take them out quickly because the production profile -- they think they can take them out quickly because the production profile is very big. to starta lot of cash another well. if they bring the price down, they will not have the money to start the next well. they think they can clear them out quickly. we heard the russians say by the middle of next year prices will stabilize. that might be optimistic, but most gulf countries think in two years they will be done with that shall producers. >> thank you so much, ryan chilcote. storesear people hit the and shop online earlier and earlier to score black friday deals. i was online, too. some retailers are setting new records. julie hyman has the trends we see. i saw amazon television sets for lesson $300. it was crazy -- less than $300. it was crazy. >> there were a lot of deals, but analysts say the deals are not different than last year. if you are shopping online, you are not alone. eitherion americans were in the stores or online according to the national retail association. target has come out and said it was its best day ever online. they saw sales up 40% year-over-year. itsart said it was second-best day after cyber monday last year. the bricks and mortar have been pushing online business. macy's was doing that. terry lundgren was on in the last hour, and i do not know if he is giddy from a lack of sleep, but he was excited about macy's position online. >> we are the eighth largest internet company in america after netflix. macy's is booming in internet business, and we have a great advantage over amazon. we have these things called stores and customers can touch the products, interact with the person, and tell them whether the makeup is right for them or not. it is a huge advantage for macy's. >> one other tidbit -- terry lundgren said 50,000 people had visited the macy's herald square store, the flagship. walmart says traffic yesterday was 22 million people. if you divide that by the stores, you are talking about 5800 people per store. it is interesting when you compare that with macy's. of course, you get a lot of tourists there as well. >> it is the flagship store. >> exactly. >> what about losers here? >> i am looking at analysis from piper jaffray. they say if you look at the malls, anchor stores were performing better -- jcpenney's, busier than the may have madehl's a mistake, sending out an e-mail saying they were opening at midnight, and then another saying they were opening at 6:00 p.m. the team at piper jaffray observing traffic was lower than it might have been otherwise. also capitalize on first mover advantage by opening an hour early -- an hour earlier. piper jaffray also says doyle makers will be a big winner. toys selling well -- hasbro, pacific.akks they are making what they are buying -- they are buying what they are making. >> whoever is making "frozen." i have to get one myself. let's hear more from that interview with macy's ceo terry lundgren. tom keene asked him about the herald square renovation here in new york. you just heard julie hyman say 15,000 people have gone into it already. hear how he says it is paying off. >> this store is all things to all people. that is what we wanted to make sure of. you can get a $9.99 toaster and a $2000 louis vuitton handbag. it needs to cater to everyone and that was the renovation -- that is what that was all about. >> i am out of reach out questions. i had to bring in somebody smart and expensed. here is gilbert harrison. sellingme about what is . is a barrel getting stronger with so much more money in consumers' pockets? apparelest thing about last night and this morning was active apparel. anything active is selling like crazy -- men's, women's, and children, and also functional active apparel -- spectator. you might look active come but you are not out there doing exercises. secondly, it is clearly outerwear. it is an outerwear season for the code climate stores. -- cold climate stores. that motivated people. >> that is great. your inventory -- tell me the position it is an. -- it is in. >> i was worried about the dock strikes, but our team was good at anticipating, so we had good delivery. $19.99 rampage excellent. the cashmere sweater sold online and in our stores. i. the key items we really need are in good shape. >> tell me quickly what you're business plan is to get to december 25th. >> we have done this before a few times and the last four years we have grown by $4.4 billion in sales, so we have the right formula. it is a combination of focusing on the products for individual macy'socations called my and then clearly on the on the channel, where customers like to come to the store and touch the product. that is our strategy for now to the christmas season. >> right. >> again, that was macy's ceo terry lundgren with tom keene. morning,d shaking this billionaire activist investor carl icahn and his quest to save atlantic city casinos. one of his affiliated funds is offering a $5 million loan to save trump entertainment resorts from going into liquidation. the trump plaza has already shut down. trump entertainment, which has no affiliation with donald trump, the founder, is asking the federal judge to allow the carl icahn long to come ahead of other secured debt. hearing is next week in delaware. no limits to a carl icahn will be involved in. much more ahead. with your shopping on black friday, a look at devices and technology. which are worth your money, and which should you leave behind question mark one popular -- behind? one popular gift is the go pro camera. next year, they might have another item on the market. you will not believe what that is. ♪ >> you are watching "in the loop ," live on bloomberg television, streaming on mobile devices, and on bloomberg.com. speaking of streaming, black friday sales show people still want content on that 50 inch flatscreen tv. last week we spoke with the ceo and tivo. there are others on the market. ande isrocku, apple tv, chromecast, but which is the best? we are joined by gregg harper, the founder and president of harpervision, where he tries out the latest technology. let's start with this video streaming -- what is the best. what do you like? >> i use amazon fire the most mainly because it has prime. i can say a movie name and it pops up and starts streaming, and because i am prime, most of the movies are free. in terms of content channels, roku has more than any others, but you also mentioned tivo. it records programs and i can watch them anywhere on the road, which is helpful. >> people seem to like all of them. >> they all have their value. traveling, having the little stick, i go to the hotel, plug it in, i have it going. in terms of use of use -- ease-of-use and simplicity, the fire is the easiest. roku.o use what have you brought? >> this camera is made by canon -- sony. i am a canon guy. it has an ability to shoot incomplete darkness. -- in complete darkness. it is a full-frame sensor. $2500. it is not inexpensive, but it will take all kind of lenses -- pick, sony, olympus -- you . by the way, it shoots video at 4k. and even >> this is for serious shooters. i the second thing that brought is this little thing. dot, andled dash and if you think back to the middle ages where it was not cool to read and write, where monks learned, and now it is considered normal, but if you want to learn languages, what is the best time? when you are five years old. i could argue programming is like learning to read and write. >> how does this help you do that? >> a gentleman sold his company to google, made some money, and decided he wanted to teach his two-year-old daughter to program. this is learning all kinds of things through play. it runs around. i put one of the adapters on it. it is a xylophone. -- the button on here ♪ it would normally play it. >> that helps you learn how to code. >> it teaches you how to code. you can program it. this is a bulldozer. it will clean up your room. [laughter] it will add your legos, your smartphone. >> multi functional. >> it uses programs developed at m.i.t. and even though it looks like play, it is useful. >> we were talking about gopro and how they are getting into drones, but you have a few gadgets. >> the thing that is interesting about gopro is there are so many different attachments. there is the gopro selfie capability. >> we have seen that happen. >> the diving one. you can go diving with it. this is for your car. this is for your dog. >> that is so cute. >> you get all of this capability. then, look at this -- guess what, he just woke up. >> he did? ok. >> i will get him to play. anyway -- look at this. hot.aveling s we could have connected this, inter-cut it with your tv show. >> this is by remote control? >> this i do with my hand. there are all kinds of things. .he drones all have gopros >> some gadgets for your holiday shopping. thank you, gregg harper of harpervision. how are sales going on black of customer johnson growth partners has 16 people on the road looking. ♪ >> you are watching "in the loop " live on bloomberg television and streaming online and on mobile. i am betty liu. walmart says 22 million ontomers visited thanksgiving, looking for tablets, televisions, children's apparel, and video gaming equipment. was theo said yesterday second biggest day for online sales. only last year cyber monday was bigger than this. gopro getting into the drone business. they plan to sell consumer drones with high definition cameras late next year according to "the wall street journal" for four betweentwo -- $400 and $500. according to federal health officials, nearly half of those who signed up for insurance do not currently have coverage through the affordable care act. it is 26 minutes past the hour. bloomberg tv is on the markets. oil prices taking a hit in europe and asia. we will talk much more about oil in a moment after opec decided not to cut production. and we will back on the markets in 30 minutes. million -- that is how many americans flocked to the stores or shop online according to the national retail federation. , 16g those, craig johnson's goteam, 16 researchers that to stores coast to coast to find out who is buying and what they are buying. his research led to last year being spot on on black friday sales and he predicts this year will be slightly better. ,uring this now, craig johnson founder of customer growth partners. far, what are you seeing? >> it has been an ok black friday weaken so far. some parts are very strong, some parts are very weak. strong is anything consumer electronics. releasewalmart, their this morning, and what our team tablets, inch tvs, the -- the, theps4, xbox one. -- the problemes is there is not a lot of margin in a five dollar toaster. apparels --ives, apparel is very weak. >> it was week last year, too, right? last year.eak so far, it is only up in that range so far. >> why is that? why is apparel so weak? >> a couple of reasons. a lot of demand has shifted into consumer electronics. overall, median income growth is 90% of the american public. the top 10% is doing fine, but everybody else is struggling. a lot of discretionary spending has gone to monthly, recurring bills -- cable, cell phone, data plan, netflix, etc.. that gobbles up and takes oxygen out of the air of spending that would in the old days go to apparel. marks when you say electronics and you mentioned the five dollar -- >> when you say electronics and you mention the five-dollar toaster, there is so much discounting going on, so if people spend their money, they will spend their money there, even though it will not make a lot of profit margin for these retailers, right? --one of the hot categories there is the low-and tvs, but audio items -- sound bars, dr. products, the headphones, they are very big. they have been discounted sum, but other parts are not. you will not find the iphone 6 plus at discounts. those are still in scarce supply. i was in the apple store downtown a half an hour ago and it is not available in all models for all carriers, so what can you do? >> i am curious, how does it work -- what you do on black friday, how many stores do you get to, and when you get into a store, what you do exactly? >> it is hundreds of stores the team does. we do the 30 largest retailers --walmart, macy's, etc. .arget, costco our team follows a discrete operational protocol where we are gathering both quantitative data and qualitative data. >> are you there with your clipboard? a not normally with clipboard. our people are relatively technology advanced. >> your iphone. >> we have done this for years, since 2001, so it allows us to get a good flavor of what is happening in retail, who the winners and losers are, what the trends are. we see patterns because we go across retail. auto parts and restaurants, but we do merchandise retail, and it gives us a good flavor. >> does that mean after you talk hitting moreill be stores? >> i had four or five this morning, and we're all over the country. >> thank you so much. , president of customer growth partners. itset says thanksgiving was biggest online shopping day ever, but how are the sales doing at the physical store where crag and his team is at. "market makers" will be talking cornell brian korn -- in a few moments. hurt show -- opec's question mark ♪ >> well, oil prices are tumbling with wti crude dropping below $70 a barrel, as you can see in this chart, after opec decided not to cut production despite a glut in supply, including from u.s. shale. good news in terms of consumer oil prices, but bad news for production back to prices we have not seen since 2010. we are joined by an associate teaching professor of finance at notre dame. thank you for joining us. what that are day than today when we have already had it come all to us and volatile oil market, and what we saw in the last 24 hours beats all of that. >> it sure does, and what we have seen is a new world order of global energy producers. opec is no longer effectively operating as the cartel and directing price. to hold thedecision line and key production at 30 million barrels, i cannot say it was unexpected, but it opens up the field for a new level of competition and like everyone prices going see below $50 a barrel. $50 a barrel -- it was hard to imagine just a year ago. sitting,ere we are talking about crude prices south of $50, i think it is plausible. the last time opec made a production cut, you have to think back to 2008 in the midst of the economic crisis and $45 a barrel. to there is precedent for them cutting, but i think what you will hear is smaller countries in the opec cartel get louder and louder as their economies feel the pinch. level ofntioned a new competition. are you talking about opec versus u.s. shale producers? >> yes, indeed. you have u.s. shale producers, it isan sands produces -- the opec face off against north american producers. it will be about who has the lowest marginal costs, and it will vary. larger producers will remain in the field. smaller producers will go by the wayside, but i do not think it will stop. i do not think shale production will stop. >> even though it is much more expensive to do this? for the larger producers, they have a smaller -- different cost structure than the smaller producers. it is analogous to what we see in the natural gas market today. >> giannan >> cop -- bern, and that point, we spoke to john hofmeyr, the former ceo of shell. to what heto listen said. >> we will see reduction in drilling rigs in the u.s. prices remain where they are today. the will immediately affect decline rate in the oilfield and the shale formation where you have declined rates, you will see oil, of the market. >> would you agree with that? >> we will see that by the smaller producers. smaller producers have high cost structures and i believe they will go by the wayside. larger producers, exxon mobil, i cannot see them slowing just yet. though, though they decided not to cut production, has not made it more clear what they will do next, right? it is another waiting game. for the major oil producers, even though they might be ok, are they still in a game of chicken with opec, trying to figure out what they are going to do, react before hand, and game that out? that will keep going for the time being. here at it is a question of, how low can you go -- yes it is, and it is a question of how the you can go and who can keep producing at the lowest possible cost. there is precedent for opec cutting production levels when they had $45 a barrel in 2008. we will see if prices go lower. $45, $50 range is when we might see action. gianna bern, thanks for joining us. gianna bern of brookshire advisory and research. you might be full from your thanksgiving dinner, but omaha steaks wants you to think about giving the gift of beef. the vice president is joining us. this home is on the market for less than it costs 12 years ago, but the seller should not be surprised because he knows how dangerous the housing market could be. stay "in the loop." ♪ first. bloomberg. steak do you want some with that turkey? its name,ks, despite sells lots of turkeys. they are expecting a brisk holiday season. simon, seniordd vice president and family owner of omaha steaks. i was looking through your website. you have your ready to grill pack. i was telling the guys this ,orning, four filet mignons four boneless pork chops, four chicken breasts, steak burgers, jumbo franks, big potatoes -- $89.99? how will you make any money? >> we try to give customers variety. we are not selling meat in a box , but the ability to enjoy incredible meals with friends and family. we want people to try lots of different things and our hope is with a package like that the customers will sample a nice assortment and by the individual components later. a losshat something like leader for you guys? >> a little bit of a loss leader. i will not say it is a loss, but thing thatat consumers are looking for. we see price increases in all proteins, pork, chicken, even seafood. we think it is our job to bring the omaha steaks quality and value at the holiday season. next you are right about beef prices -- >> you are right about beef prices. you, of all people, would know where they are headed. according to one survey, they are up already 11% in 2014 and they will go up another 5% next year. how'd you protect your profit margin in that environment? on profit a squeeze and we have to be smarter. we have been around for 100 years, and have seen a lot of aretion, so we think we ready to handle it. we tell consumers now is the time to focus on quality. >> higher prices. >> when prices are high, the differences in price between highest-quality and medium quality is not that great, so you should go for the higher-quality and know how to prepare it, and really not mess it up, which is why we provide so many tips on the website. >> you do. i have noticed that on your website. you will also hire up to 4000 people for the holiday season. how does that compare to other years? >> that is consistent. we have seen business ramp up since the low of 2009, so we continue to add a few more people each holiday season. >> are you finding the same amount of talent is out there? you have to pay higher wages or do you feel those pressures? >> in omaha, nebraska, the economy is pretty good. the labor market is competitive. have competitors hiring -- call centers and direct-to-consumer companies. we are able to find quality people for the team, but we have to pay a little bit more. " -- canttle bit more you quantify how much more? we arecertain jobs, paying $16 an hour, which is about $1.50 more than last year. >> that is pretty significant. on a lighter note, you are noticing some trends through your ordering, right? i was reading some articles -- the bacon craze and the midwestern food movement. >> that is right. what could be more midwestern than a steak? research thatone says 80% of people that receive gifts at the holiday season would like to get food, and topping the list are things like k, wine, and chocolate, and even smoked meat, and we are playing in all of those areas. we have chocolate, of course we have stakes, and we have been selling wine for three years. our goal is to be everywhere the customer wants to be. >> are you doing chocolate-covered bacon? >> we have not done that yet, but do not think we have not looked at it. >> i imagine you have looked at all options. simon, senior vice president and family owner of omaha steaks. thank you so much for joining us. ipads, beats headphones, and sony playstation's -- some of the items helping target dayh its biggest online ever. we are talking with ceo brian cornell later. net neutrality to blame? we have details ahead on "in the loop." ♪ >> hey, have you heard -- it is black friday? it had its biggest online sales day ever, generating a 40% rise in digital services. erik schatzker. i look through a lot of websites yesterday and i forgot about target. >> a lot of people have forgotten about target. that is a big problem for brian cornell. he is the new ceo who came in in august after the data breach at target. that is one of the things brian cornell has to work on -- getting people into target.com -- it appears to be working, at least for now. as you mentioned, sales yesterday on thanksgiving, online sales, up 40%, and the stores opened at 6:00 a.m., so they had foot track -- traffic. two for brian cornell. number one, online, number two, for traffic. number three, canada. >> your home country. >> canada has been a disaster, holding the country -- company back. they are trying to figure out the magic formula for attracting the canadian customer, and, of course, he is working on the customer confidence problem. when you do not trust a company to protect your data, you do not trust the company to do a whole lot of other things, which is why it has been a struggle to get people back to trust target. it is working. they had a good third quarter. >> he is the emphasizing some areas -- groceries, for instance, not as high on it is list -- on his list. >> it is part of the formula, but what brian cornell has said he is doing is follow walmart's lead into natural and organic products and also smaller urban stores. target does not have the smaller-format stores in major cities like new york, for example, and that is one of the things on target's list to do. they do not have them yet. brian cornell has not offered detail as to when they will be opening the smaller format stores, so that is one of the things we will talk about this morning. >> i am assuming you will ask questions about the data breach and what they have done on security. done tons on security. the question is how much further do they need to go to restore customer conference, and what can they do? is it just a matter of time to heal wounds, or can they take proactive steps? >> looking for to that. >> yes, 10:00 a.m., brian cornell of target. >> stay with us. we will also go live to toys "r" us to look at sales there with the company's u.s. president. today's big number, $2.5 million -- that is how much former bank of america ceo ken lewis is selling his vacation home for, selling it as a law -- at a loss. he knows a thing or two about losing money in the housing market. he was in charge of bank of america when it almost collapsed due to the subprime mortgage crisis. the bank had booked $70 million in expenses tied to those home loans. a lesson there, do not buy a house in a remote part of the country. you might not be able to sell it. it is 56 minutes past the hour. bloomberg tv is on the markets. equity futures are mixed. the main story in the market today is opec. the oil price plunging, down to its lowest level in four years. that is affecting stocks and bonds around the world. much more ahead. breaking up google -- it is unlikely to happen no matter what 384 european union lawmakers say. that story and much more as we get you ready for the open on this friday. ♪ >> welcome back to "in the loop ." we are 30 minutes away from the opening bell. here are our top stories. the nasdaq up slightly. the s&p appears headed lower. story driving the market. the price of west texas intermediate crude below $70 for the first time since 2010 after opec decided not to cut production levels, saying the market will decide where prices land. this is opec's secretary-general. >> for the last four years, for years and a half, -- four years and a half, we have had a decent price, and now prices decline, so that means we should not rush and do something. we should wait and see. i have said many times to you that we do not want to panic. i mean it. dampingdrop in oil is inflation with consumer prices in the euro area at a five-year low. the eu parliament approved a resolution that calls for search engines like google to break apart, splitting its search business from other commercial businesses. the resolution carries no legal weight. european market is higher than the u.s. share. crowd for itsig flagship store. said manylundgren more are shopping online. >> we are the eighth largest internet company in america after netflix. macy's is booming in internet business, and today it is more important. we have a great advantage over amazon. these things called stores and customers can come into the stores, touch the product, interact, and tell them whether the makeup is right or not. it is a huge advantage for maces . we are doing just that -- macy's. we are doing just fine. >> what a novel concept, try things out. you can go into a store. terry lundgren said sales are doing well despite a peril not doing well so far -- despite a peril not doing well so far -- apparel not doing well so far. had its biggest day of online sales. in brian cornell will be on 30 minutes. let's count you down to the stories hitting our radar before morning here at julie hyman and shelley holiday joining me. 10, the japanese government applying pressure on da.cata -- taka they recalled more than 40,000 vehicles in japan based on these airbags. -- there are conflicting reports. >> it appears to be more of a pr move from the japanese government, but the big question a waiting?takat millione set aside $67 for the retail, but if they face a fine from the u.s. government per car it will be billions and billions of dollars. >> the u.s. says it wants a nationwide recall, not a piecemeal state-by-state recall. apparently high humidity can trigger problems with the airbag , but the u.s. is saying let's do it everywhere. to your point, the cover-up that seems to be part of this -- we have seen it with general motors. ,e have seen it now with takata and the reluctance to come out in front of it is really troubling. >> there is a cultural misunderstanding -- the japanese manufacturer not understand in the recall means. there is confusion on that part. staying in asia, number nine, china surpassed japan as the world's second-largest stock market. anyone that has been watching the rocket knew this was coming. declining, japan going into a slow morass, and china recovering, seeing pretty decent growth in some areas. >> what surprised me in looking through the story is how much is.er china's gdp if you look at the relative size of the countries, it makes sense, but china's gdp is 89% larger. of that is not captured in the public stock market, but nonetheless, it would make sense they would catch up and surpassed them. >> also, looking at abe, will there be more stimulus and when will it come? is down so much that people are saying there could be more easing sooner than we thought. >> investors in japan have the but -- boj, but how much further could they go? number eight, at&t saying they will not limit the fiber expansion to the 2 million homes it committed to as part of its acquisition of direct tv. click the little bit of a gaffe here. -- >> a little bit of a gaffe here, right? >> yes, by the ceo. plan,y will continue the but they are not further in the investment, so they are sort of halting it, but the big question is when will we have an answer about net neutrality? >> hopefully by next year. i think randy stephenson committed the air of saying what he thought out loud. frankly speaking, all of us have talked with cable operators and they have all said the same thing -- if not neutrality is not fall on the right side of the argument, they will literally have to rollback on some investments. that is not untrue. randy just happened to be the one to speak that out and was slapped on the wrist for that and had the fcc say i am sorry. cox communications being sued by two music publishers, alleging the company deliver the turned a blind eye to you legal downloading by's -- legal downloading by customers. >> we have seen them go after but can theypster, go after a cable company? what at&t is trying me.how cox is not -- excuse knew about what was going on with these individuals, -- >> they should have shut it down. >> right, exactly. to them for trying, but will people ever stop stealing music? >> no. they need a new model. >> they need something. >> if someone can get the milk for free, they will get the milk for free. , developinggopro its own line of consumer drones to expand core business. aim for a price tag of between $500 and $1000. this makes more sense than gopro going into original content. >> maybe you will see these drones flying. >> it is ridiculous. >> something that i love about the story is there is this new dronie.lled the >> taking a picture of yourself. >> there is only one problem with gopro doing this -- they partner with drone-makers. so, are you competing against her client? how would i go over. -- how will that go over? there are still questions about this. >> they still appear to be dominating the small, personal camera. it could be a good idea. >> all right. much more ahead. hunters hitbargain the stores late last night to get a start on black friday shopping. did you guys do any holiday shopping? >> eyebrows on my mobile phone that i do not buy anything -- i browsed on my mobile phone, but i did not buy anything. joins us with how shares are shaping up so far and what he expects the rest of the season. ♪ >> and we continue to count down to the opening bell. we are halfway through. retailers --the the national retail federation has been checking in with ceos at stores and chains across the nation, asking how many of us shopping,ng, who is and how many will hold out hoping for better deals? over 25 million people have hit the stores, including matt shay, ,resident and ceo of the nrf and you had a front row seat, because you were with macy's ceo terry lundgren, right? >> yes, i was one of the lucky few who got to see the parade. i was back in the store early this morning. >> macy's? >> macy's, around town, hitting other stores, and so far there is a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of excitement. the numbers look positive. the stories we hear from the ceos are all trending in the right direction. who does craig johnson his own research, going out to stores as well, and he noticed electronics,ying lower margin electronics can but they are not buying a lot of apparel. i imagine that might hit a store like macy's. is that consistent with what you saw? researchnsumer dictated that discount retailers will be the destination. apparel will be high on the list. we think i will be a strong category. what we have seen and heard would suggest it will be popular. discounts, 60% of shoppers will go, and followed closely by online shopping, about 55% in this initial survey. they are in their battling it out for market share. a goldman sachs came out with report saying a recent fall in oil prices -- in the last six months gas prices have fallen dramatically -- goldman sachs estimates it is a $75 million tax break for americans, a gift. will it pan out for retailers, this gift? >> we think yes. dayss been 60 consecutive ande gasoline has dropped, that would equate to the $75 billion tax break goldman is talking about. we have seen the bifurcation, segmentation in the marketplace between the consumers, the haves and the have-nots, or those who feel they have participated in the recovery and those who feel they have not participated and what that means for the way there allocating resources on a discretionary spending basis. the reduction in the price of gasoline -- that will certainly help those that feel less connected to the recovery than those who feel they are spending off the balance sheet. we think it will pan out. >> one area we have not talked about is the legal side -- the politics and the legislation. i know you, as part of your agency organization, you lobby in washington for retailers. going into 2015 with a new congress in action, what will be at the top of your agenda? >> the nation's retailers are present 3.5 million locations and 45 million jobs. ae in four americans work at retail business, making retail the largest private-sector employer in the united states. policy in washington is critical to make sure we can serve those communities and create more jobs and opportunities. among the things on our list would be tax reform. that's ok. >> we clearly have a tax code that is complicated and not -- >> ok. >> we clearly have a tax code that is competition -- complicated. we do not benefit from the way the tax code is structured and it makes us less competitive and we obviously operate in a global economy. we think the rate should be in the 25%-range, which is what we have talked about and others have suggested. so, tax reform would be high on the list. that would include corporate and individual tax rates. comprehensive. trade deals -- let's open up the market and find smarter investment. immigration reform would be great for the economy and retailers. a long list. >> a long list. as you could imagine, a long list for congress as they get into session. , thanks for joining us. president of the national retail federation. next, looking at how the rising u.s. dollar is impacting their profit. we will be back. ♪ >> welcome back to "in the loop ." let's get back to bringing you the most important stories you need to know before the bell. julie hyman and shelby holiday joining me. number 4 -- a provider of those ds you see on these websites, buzz feed and huffington post. they might be going for an ipo. it could be valued at up to $1 billion. this is how profitable the company could be. >> when i was researching, i was clicking on links that suggested further reading, and that is what they do. i do not mind that as much as i mind pop-ups and adds related to things you are not interested in. make it clearey they are sponsored by so and so, so i know to avoid them. if i am adjusted in the story, i guess i would click on it, but it does seem to be effective. ,hat is interesting, outbrain they are an israeli affiliated company, so there is a big digital ad business coming out of israel. clock star a lot of startups coming out of israel. i have -- >> there are a lot of startups coming out of israel. i have to say i have clicked on a lot of these native ads. number three, the eu parliament voted to break up search engines with the target being mainly google. the resolution carries no legal weight. google has been the subject of an antitrust investigation that has been going on for nearly four years. they cannot do anything about it, but they can let their voices be known. >> and you brought up a good point -- they have not explicitly said google, but that is exactly who they are targeting, and a lot of the companies opposed to google's dominants are actually based in the u.s. -- hotel searchers, trip advisor. those that oppose it are not necessarily in europe. hasne of the things the eu said is you should split the search business from other businesses, but the other businesses are such a tiny, miniscule piece of google, and the concern is for a travel company, for example, if they are pushing a travel service through search business, is there a conflict of influence, but if you spun it off, what would that be? >> exactly, why have the other businesses stand alone because they are so small? currency traders are looking forward to their first profit since 23 -- 2010. it is driven by a surge in the dollar, which is expected to into 2015.llying monetary policy has depressed volatility, but it has kind of sprung back into life and that is why currency traders are making money again. >> it looks like a nice christmas present with this oil decision and volatility all over the world. >> and volatility has quieted down. in the equity market, we had the spike and then the correction, and now things have quieted down on that front. isrency traders -- what fascinating and important to remember is they do not care if it goes up or down. >> right, they want the volatility. it will be a long while before they get back to returns equity markets have given investors, but it is a welcome relief, and we will see given recent bad news on the currency market like the great-rigging, the currency-rigging scandal. that is a little bit of good news. as we are nearing the opening bell, we're on the markets. we are mixed as we head to the opening bell on this friday. ♪ >> welcome back. let's get back to bring you the most important stories before the bell. julie hyman and shelby holliday are with me. oil prices plummeting. opec decides not to cut their production. wti crude fell below $70 a barrel, now near $16. a year ago you would not have believed oil would be at these levels. $68.ar up coming into the city for $21. one was the last time you saw that? >> the implications are interesting, from what happens in the holiday season to the equity markets. energy stocks are the only group in the s&p that are down this year, by about 4.3%, but they are not as heavily weighted because they have come down. they account for 9% of the s&p. the tumor discretionary, almost 12%. if you look at the relative boost that lower gasoline prices can give to consumer discretionary versus the depressive effect on energy stocks, you may come out ahead. >> one of the big goals here of opec is to lower prices so much that it affects gas producers here in the u.s. because it may not be profitable to frak and drill wells anymore. >> we had the oil analyst on earlier who said that she could see prices going down to $50 a barrel. >> it is so low, it would not make sense to all of the fracking. >> i want to bring in david global asset management with jpmorgan. an important day in the world markets. i want to kick off with this interesting survey that was just reported on this morning. it is from the cfa, a survey of top professional investors, warning that asset values around the world are overheating. all of these investors said they were most worried about fears of a.com-style bubble here in the united states. do you share those fears? >> frankly, no, i don't think stocks are in a bubble, like me l.om era at al we will not match what we have had in previous years, but maintaining a broad, diversified exposure to risk assets around the world is a place to allocate money to right now. >> when you are talking with your colleagues, can you see how some might be worried about it? interest rates are going lower in japan, europe is still a big speaking.kly here in the u.s., there is nowhere else to pile money into other than u.s. stocks. >> i understand it's a difficult time to allocate money around the world in different asset classes, absolutely. ultimately, i'm happy with the exposure in the u.s. because uncomfortable with the expansion there, it has room to run. look where construction is as a percentage of gdp, where wages will be in a few years. they will pick up. look at the policy support for federalomy with the government and federal reserve. stock prices will go higher. if you look at europe and japan, different reasons to have exposures. stimulus,t the policy a depreciating currency and effect on currency. should beity markets a key holder for investors. >> speaking of the global view, i want to talk about opec cost -- opec's decision. what are the key ripple effects to be looking for around the world? it is a seismic change to the global oil market which we have known for decades. the main cartel has switched from limiting production to holding up production, to maintain market share. that is a big change. it is not going to reverse any time soon. keyink it will affect some oil exporting companies negatively, but the broader ripple effects to most countries that import this kind of stuff is essentially a tax cut for consumption and another reason why some economies that should recover faster, and it takes the pressure off central banks who are considering raising rates. is something i was talking about a few moments ago, that balancing act, not just between countries that are u.s.,ers, but here in the between the consumer discretionary economy on the one hand, and energy on the other. you seem to think that the positive effect on consumers will be much more report that any depressive effect on energy companies. >> that's absolutely the case, yes. there are some risks to the u.s., or has been a lot of press about the issuance of high-yield debt by the oil companies around and whether they can service those debts and make a profit in a loyal price environment. the jury is still out on that, but ultimately, for an economy like the united states, that will boost consumption, and that's a positive. the u.k. andre in we are here in the u.s. experiencing black friday, my understanding is now that you are doing it there. retailers are emphasizing black friday, not only in the u.k., but other countries as well. skipping the turkey and going straight to black friday. is that a signal of desperation on the part of international retailers, a good sign for consumer spending? >> i think we may have lost david. >> the suspense. >> we will have to call him and ask. what is black friday like in the u.k.? they are taking part, it seems at such an american indulgence. >> retailers want any reason they can get to get people in the stores. >> single day, black friday, what else can we make up? >> david stubbs, global market strategist at j.p. morgan asset management. much more ahead. winning the holiday shopping game has become more strategic than ever. saysresident of toys r us how he is battling walmart and amazon. he is a former walmart executive. target is on a mission to win customers back after that new data breach. brian cornell will be with me to discuss the retailers was covered -- recovery. ♪ >> 16 hours down and counting. toys r us is a handful of retailers who are choosing to open its doors on thanksgiving. hungry shoppers loaded up on doorbusters and deals. ?ill the head start be worth it i want to get an insider's view of the holiday shopping season with the president of toys r us from their manhattan store. i see lots of people behind you. out of elsa or frozen toys? wewe had a great season, opened up at 5:30 p.m. on thing skimming evening. at the times square store, we had about 2000 people lined up, great excitement and a real buzz from the consumers. we are at the center of the tour universe here in times square. around --ed this time you have come in from walmart. you have made several changes to toys "r" us coming including door changes. you mentioned for this holiday season you are not going to be as promotional as you were in the past. have you found that has helped or hurt categories? >> some of the changes that we made, consumers told us they wanted it to be easier to shop. we improve the in-store navigation, improved the online next periods, a new position, a live gps guru. in terms of deals, this weekend, consumers can save over $8,000 by shopping the deals that we have. we are doing fewer but more meaningful promotions and consumers are reacting very positively. >> on that same subject, the dides at toys "r" us -- we a survey of prices at toys "r" us, walmart, and amazon. they found for over 100 toys, 90% of them were higher-priced at toys "r" us than at walmart or amazon, other retailers. how do you deal with the competition undercutting your toys? onone thing we are focused is we have a loyalty program that makes us unique. we provide additional benefits for our members. one of the things that we do is for each $125 they spend, they get five dollars back. also for shoppers who are rs credit card holders, they get an additional 10% off every thursday and friday -- saturday from now until christmas. if you want to open up a card on saturday, you can get an additional 15% off. we provide lots of ways for consumers to save. in addition to that, we are e-mailing loyalty customers it special deals every day. >> do you find that quite a few of your shoppers, even from yesterday and today, or from your loyalty program, the repeat shoppers, that that is what you are getting? >> we are seeing a lot of repeat shoppers. when i was talking to consumers as they came in last night, for many of them, it was their first time at the time square store. we are seeing a good blend of loyal shoppers and brand-new shoppers that have not experienced us before. price,ing back to the the fact is, your prior employer, walmart, is able to sell the same toys for a cheaper price. when people are shopping online, how do you make sure they stay with toys "r" us? authority.he toy we are focused on the toy business 365 days a year. among our competition has a few an entiret we have store dedicated to the experience. and our employees are expert in these categories. we provide great expertise to help consumers find the item they want. to turnave helped around sales, have turned positive after several years of slowing growth. do you expect the second half of the year will see positive sales growth? >> we are really excited about the hard work the team has done to prepare for the holiday season. as you mentioned, we had a good start to the year. we have improved our supply chain. -- we willl we will be in stock with all of the hottest toys into the holiday season. >> thank you very much, hank mullaney, u.s. president of toys r us. much more not only on retail but on the oil impact from opec. how the u.s. fracking boom influenced the decision and what this could mean for prices going forward. ♪ >> here is a look at our top tech stories on the bloomberg radar. online sales becoming a bigger part of black friday and thanksgiving shopping. mobile sales accounted for 32% of total online sales. target said yesterday was its best online sales date ever with sales up 40%. we will be speaking with ceo brian cornell in the next hour. it turns out many tech companies not only hire more men but they hire their male employees more. that is the finding of a new survey. female engineers at a wide variety of companies make slightly less than their male counterparts. is that a surprise? in a store that we have been covering all morning long, european lawmakers want google to split apart. they want to urge google and other search engines to separate their search business from their other commercial businesses. the revolution is nonbinding. the eu has been investigating google for antitrust violations for nearly four years. let's go to those headlines in opec in.rom they decided to keep production where it is despite plummeting prices. one of their biggest concerns is increased output in the u.s. driven by hydraulic fracturing. it has boosted american energy independence and lower oil prices globally. joining us to discuss this is the author of a new book "the frackers." what a transformation it has been here in the u.s.. who would've thought the u.s. would have been energy independent, largely based on their own production? >> even the big giants in this country did not believe that, exxon, chevron. it is led by entrepreneurs, and a fewddballs, other people, who are right. >> bringing it to what happened on thursday, many say that saudi arabia and others have seen this shale oil boom and are now fighting for market share in the global oil market based on this production coming out of the u.s. how will that play out? >> when you talk to some of these people, they get nervous. in north dakota, montana, canada, about 60 is when you get nervous, maybe $70 a barrel. , below 60o elsewhere is where they get nervous. there is a lot of anxiety right now. >> nervous about going out of business? >> it is not so clear-cut. a lot have hedged their production, have invested longer-term so will not shut down right away, but it becomes much more expensive. and it is not just fracking, but there is also horizontal drilling. they get nervous they will not make nearly as much, and a lot of them have borrowed a lot of money. you do not want to be leveraged as the price of the commodity comes down. >> so is this opec's way of putting them out of business? >> they have a lot of reasons for getting prices lower. they have iranian and russian reasons. frackers are getting them service. they want to gain back market share. >> ascribed these people that you talk about in your book. wildcatersut these and where they are now? >> aubrey mcclendon, tom ward, people who were dismissed. they believed in shale and they wanted to move to energy independence, and make a lot of money in doing so. exxon, bp, all of those companies did not believe in this country and the possibilities. it took some stubborn, idiosyncratic entrepreneurs to develop the technology. it is just as much a story about technology innovation as anything else. it is all about horizontal drilling and spot fracking. >> why did exxon, chevron, dismiss it so quickly? andhey had assets offshore were doing quite well, so they did not believe that we could have this shale in our country. historically, that is what conventional wisdom said, too expensive to tap shale. the same thing happened here where it was some outsiders who believed in this country and in the technology, and the experts scoffed. >> if the momentum continues, how big is this industry going to be, how many jobs can we create, how many pounds of oil will reproduce? million jobs are expected to be generated from this renaissance. that is about what we lost in the housing downturn. a significant amount of jobs. we are moving toward energy security. i think we will always import from some places, like canada and mexico, but those are our friends. opec nations are really plummeting. we will see what happens as energy prices come down. you get to about $60 a barrel get concerned,s and it hurts their production. >> we are not far from that at all. thiso be headed lower with opec decision. thanks for joining us. greg zuckerman, author of "the frackers." we are gearing up for a busy week. the retail sector and the labor market takes center stage. for one ofng room the music industry's biggest stars as well. staying will be joining us -- sting will be joining us on "in the loop." how he revolutionized rock 'n roll and why he is taking the stage on broadway. that will be next week. ♪ >> it is 56 past the error and that means bloomberg television is on the markets. i'm julie hyman. but see where stocks are trading. we have a push-poll going on. the s&p 500 going higher as a result of that. stocksdownside, energy down with the price of oil. on the other hand, consumer discretionary stocks are doing well. take a look at where oil prices are. followingen a plunge the meeting of opec yesterday in which they declined to change production targets. that is having a big depressive affect. for more on the price of oil, i am joined by an eu oil and gas analyst for bloomberg television. he is joining us this morning from london. obviously, a big topic of conversation today. when you look around the world, there is a fascinating power dynamic now in opec. eventually a was victory for some of the parties in opec and not others. can you talk us through that? >> there are a couple of countries in africa and south america that are highly dependent on the oil price. the public budget, revenues, social security system, all depends on, to a large extent, oildependent on the oil price. revenues. nigeria, algeria, venezuela, ecuador. the budget of these countries are quite tight already. being lower price in the last six months already, they will see how they make do in the next six months, until the next opec meeting in june. how they will make do, make ends meet. is there a chance of an emergency meeting between now and june, if those countries were under particular pressure? they excluded it for right now, did not mention it. they said the next meeting would be june 5 indiana. strongerl prices drop again, it is hard to see where it will be. drop, weignificant cannot exclude that these be holding an emergency meeting. there are a number of nations that need a high oil price for their budget revenues. we cannot completely exclude that there will be an emergency meeting. a floor for oil prices given that opec has done this? >> that is hard to say because the supply and demand balance right now globally is very insecure. on the one hand, you have demand from china, expected to grow next year. that is fine. on the other hand, you have additional supply coming on stream in iraq with the agreements having an with baghdad to export additional crude oil. libya has been on and off in the last couple of months, shutting down oil fields bringing them back on again. that could be additional supply. nigeria has had its problems, could, on again. there are a couple of countries that could bring on additional supply. it is not guarantee that this will be mopped up by additional demand. >> obviously, we will be talking more about this. we will be on the markets again in 30 minutes. "market makers" is next. ♪ >> ready, set, shop. the black friday rush is underway. you will hear from the ceo of target. year after the megahit it is not just disney cashing in. and it is no holiday for hollywood. it may turn out to be a crucial weekend for three big studios. good morning, everyone. i'm a arch oscar. stephanie ruhle is off today. let's begin this hour

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