175 in the third quarter. Investors looking at this positively so far. Alibaba up about 5 in the premarket. It is down about one third, more than one third since the high it reached shortly after its ipo in 2014. The stock has not done well. Jon up 3. 5 premarket on alibaba. Even if youre not interested in the company, to get a gauge of what is happening in china. Your scorecard, futures firmer in the u. S. , up 61 points. Points. D 7, 8 in london, pretty much flat. Switch up the board, the dollar on the front foot against some of the majors including the euro. On the backs first against the Commodity Currencies with wti up 45 and . 19, 3. 2 . A rally on treasuries, yields got a little bit higher by one basis point to 1. 79 , over 24 hours away from payroll friday. Here are stocks to watch with matt. Matt in europe, gains. I want to highlight two of the biggest gainers. Refining is what is helping them and chemicals. You see a rally. Bt group rising. The former monopoly of the u. K. Communications industry, revenue that beat cash earnings that beat in estimates at Wm Morrison Supermarkets up. This is rollsroyce. Gaining after posting a second consecutive quarter of sales growth. Firstlook at merck, quarter adjusted eps, the estimate was for . 85 and they got . 89. Revenue forecast a forecast of revenue between 39 billion and 40 billion and the street was looking for 39. 8 billion. The forecast range is good for mercik. Merck. We will talk about the tesla stories all day long, shares soaring, yesterday was an incredible day for them because it looked like their entire production staff was leaving. They have lost five important managers over the past two or three months and they said the unbelievable target that they will make 500,000 cars in 2020, now they say babel do it in 2018, now they say they will do it in 2018. It,market seems to like though difficult to get your head around how he will do it. Jon a highly intelligent man, is this a business or ego . Conversations in new york, the biggest names in the Hedge Fund Industry gathering for the conference, the overriding message clear, go short. Stan druckenmiller says the bull market in stocks is wearing itself out, he says i now feel the weight of the evidence has shifted the other way, high evaluations, three more years of unproductive corporate behavior, limits to further easing at excessive borrowing from the future suggests this bull market is exhausting itself here a Central Bank Experiment with metro Interest Rates coming he is loading up on gold. Get us is jack rifkin joining us is jack rivkin. Dispersionoving into. When you get into a low growth environment, the results very over the map. It takes an active manager to participate. Stan is dealing with a lot of money. Manager,l portfolio this is the time when they should be able to shine. I am not so sure they will but because some of them seem to have forgotten what it takes to analyze a company. That is where we are, we are getting dispersion. With the market today, in education this is an alibaba rally. An indication this is an alibaba rally. Or get about their earnings, the fact revenues were up that much forget about their earnings, the fact revenues were up says china is in the game, game on for everybody else. Carol is gold a way to shine . Jack until the dollar regains its strength. This is a dollar play, you can short the currency and buy gold. Carol druckenmiller says this is his currency play. Jack not a bad idea since we are in a time with negative real returns. Point. Own gold at this you are not getting a return for holding it. Not getting a yield by you may be getting return, a real return. Matt not seeing a yield anywhere else. This chart, hillary came up with this, gold open interest, soaring to the highest level since 2010. Now that everyone is talking about it, i wonder if the trait gets crowded trade gets crowded. Jack it does, it already has, all of the technicians on gold now. When all of them are there, it is time to step back. David mr. Druckenmiller is a shrewd investor. Take the other side. If he moves to be wrong, why will that have been . Recovery in the rest of the world versus what is going on in the u. S. We are seeing early signs of that. A very difficult time for the emerging markets, very difficult in the developed markets as well. We are beginning to see some turn, the companies there, the governments are beginning to do something about that and if that takes hold, i think stan is going to be wrong. He is pretty good. Jon three decades of the average annual growth, he has done well. Jack hard to Say Something against them. Jon another voice from the conference related to gold, more about inflation, check out this quote from jeff, the idea we have a debt fueled Trump Presidency, he promises to bring back jobs and promises infrastructure spending, lets face it, he is extremely comfortable with debt. The treasury market jack having somebody else take the hit. Market, peoplery say there is a lot of space, a market thirsty for more treasuries to be issued and more debt to the issue. Jack if donald trump becomes president and delivers on what he says, a big question, you are talking about what i call a market on fire. He will spend money fiscally and have debt. , a this is important bullish case for a Trump Presidency, in the mainstream media, you hear bearish but this is a bullish case. Jack if you believe he can deliver on what he says he will do, i do not believe that, i am in the Leonard Cohen camp, we have democracy coming to the usa for the first time, and we will elect somebody possibly that represents that and it will not be pretty. Jon great to have you with us. Headlines, we will talk about whether or not donald trump will finance his own race after the president ial primaries. Now that he is the presumptive nominee, he will not do that, they are building a finance operation that will raise money for the general election according to people familiar with the plan, top aides say he made 1 billion or more in the fall. Britain is going to the polls, voters will elect a new mayor of london and decide a series of local and legislative races. It is the European Central banks new offensive against crime, it will stop producing the 500 euros note at the end of 2018, the ecb concerned the 500 euros note will be used to facilitate illegal activities, a decision likely to bring criticism from those who believe the central bank is trying to abolish cash altogether so they can follow our every move through digital means. Carol as they should. Coming up, the turkish government in a people of the trimester is said to be stepping down, we will have that story next. Matt here is your business flash. Tribune publishing has rejected an 815 million takeover bid by usa today. The offer undervalued the company which publishes the Chicago Tribune and los angeles times. They plan to break out the los angeles papers profit at a separate segment. Barclays is carried out its promise to shrink the banks global footprint, it has sold 1 5 of its taken Barclays Africa to money managers, four 879 billion, the ceo said last month the bank would retreat from africa, one of the measures he is taking to raise and legendary capital burden. Goldman sachs is predicting a big drop in hong kong home prices, now graded property stocks. Expecting them to fall, because of increase in borrowing rises up to two percentage price points. That is to a Bloomberg Business flash. Carol we have to focus on turkey where the Prime Minister is expected to step down any moment, he has been involved in a power struggle with the president and the clash has had effects on the turkish economy. All, lets take a step back, how did begin here how did we get here . A long power struggle between the president and the Prime Minister that has been going on for a wild while. The Prime Minister was a mentor to the president. But clearly there have been sinces between them fresno didnt president erdog an became president. He wants to give himself more power and that led to a power struggle last night where the Prime Minister walked into the president ial palace and told him he needs to have more autonomy from the president. The meeting did not go well and sparked the political crisis we face today. David what does this do to the support of president erdogan . He is is pretty john pretty popular. There are people around the president who are encouraged by the polls, not inconceivable that we could see snap elections at some point in the next few months. His big strategy is, what he really wants to do is get a mandate from the turkish people Strong Enough to allow him to change the constitution and turn the turkish presidency into a stronger office. To vladimirarable putin. Is the lens to see what he wants to do. Matt how investors are taking this, equity flows from foreign investors, anything below the red line is an outflow and above is an inflow. Utflows are lessening on the equity side, it does not hurt much. On the other hand, traders are raising bets against the lira, onemonth swaps. That is a concern. We are starting to see something happening. Politically, the former Central Bank Governor under a terrific amount of pressure by the president , you just wonder, a tighter grip, not just on fiscal policy but on Monetary Policy, is that in turkeys case bad for Financial Assets for Financial Assets . John i saw headlines seconds ago, given by one of his chief economic advisers to one of the turkish tv stations, he said that the central bank has to cut Interest Rates. The political pressure on Monetary Policy that investors traditionally do not like. Davutoglu is seen as the voice of moderation and the more people who like him and the Central Bank Governor, the more people who like this who leave the stage of turkish politics, the more concerned investors will have a about e direction of Economic Policy in the country. David isnt this a note of democracy . A raw another country moving to a raw democracy . The president is getting everybody out which gives him more control, not related to what i would call fiscal policy, related to beliefs . Compareyes, this two things happening in hungry you could look at poland, economist look at, compare what the president is doing to russia, he is consolidating a lot of power around himself. Keep in mind that he is extremely popular, elected by a majority, his party got a majority in the elections at the end of last year. A lot of concerns about where he is taking turkey but he remains popular. Carol thank you. Holding aminister is News Conference and we will monitor those headlines and bring you anything as it is known. Jon up next, we talk alibaba, revenue better than estimated and cloud revenue soaring, the sock start gaining. We will discuss that next. ,avid this is Bloomberg Alibaba shares on the move after it beat revenue estimates on better advertising sales. Revenue rose 39 in the first three months of the year. Numbers ishrough the selena wang. Should we pay more attention to their revenue or earnings miss . A mixed results. They beat on revenue significantly thats slightly net income but a positive story. Investors are already impressed by the growth topline come a good story, especially in the face of the headwinds about negative news about the Chinese Consumer and chinese economy. David how much does this tell us about the Chinese Consumer as opposed to alibaba taking more share from alternative retailers . Selana it is seen a proxy for the chinese economy and a lot of investors will want to play out their fears about mixed results in the chinese economy in alibaba stock. Longterm, the chinese has a growing middleclass and any longterm, it will be a big boom for alibaba. A positive story for the Chinese Consumer longterm. David matt . Matt alibaba sales and alibaba profit on the rise since the ipo. If you look a couple of months after the ipo, we got to 120 and the stock is falling has fallen. One stock jim chanos says to short. He has concerns about china and has since the day he was born but he says short alibaba. David she said we should look at alibaba as a surrogate for the chinese economy, do you agree . Jack i do, an indication of what is going on in the Consumer Sector in china which is still on fire. You are building an interesting area, services is a big part of it, alibaba represents consumption of goods and to some extent services. It is sort of like amazon. Amazon cell phones amazon is beats the number but an indication of the direction of where things are going. Carol take a reliable one . Jack i think it is a good proxy for what is going on in china. Is anole market situation alibaba market because it is an indication that china is ok. Carol some of the stories trending. Top stories users are reading. Specifically jon the abolishment of the 500 euro note, it has been watered down to my production will end remain legalt will tender in for an unlimited amount of time you can go to the. Ank with the note a lot of people are discussing the abolishment of cash . Jack that is something that is going on, we have moved to a cash economy and the governments have no control. The u. S. Has an opportunity, we are issuing the harriet taliban 20 bill, if they put on top of 2019, youby 2018 or have to switch your current 20 Andrew Jackson bills for harriet top and, we may see interesting things happen in terms of cash economy. It is a huge part of the economy. 20 bills and 100 bills, a form of currency that is used away from the government. In,ou wanted to rain that and you will see counterfeit, that is where it will happen. Here. Great to have you david up next, elon musk is laying plans that some say are unattainable, details on that next on bloomberg. [ soft music ] e. T. Phone home. When you find something you love, you can never get enough of it. Change the way you experience tv with xfinity x1. Shoah, ha ha. Ew artist. Show me top male artist. My whole belieber fan group. Its not a competition, but if it was i won. Xfinity x1 lets you access the greatest library of Billboard Music awards moments, simply by using your voice. The Billboard Music awards, live sunday may 22nd, 8 5 pacific, only on abc. Jonathan this is basically the one day of summer, so all of you in london, enjoy it, the hottest day of the year. Becauset to the board it is quite an interesting session. Futures in the u. S. A little firmer, s p 500 richards positive. And stayedp about 3 up 2. 7 . U. S. Move off the back of crude production coming down to a 20 lane barrels a day, the peak at 9. 6 million. The fx market, the firmer footing with the commodity currency stopped and a firmer dollar at or team 22 on the current die single currency and treasury after a recent rally of two basis points. This is bloomberg go. Tom keene and i get excited about this time of the month. Tom much more than that, i cant recall a jobs day with. Such an overlay of international economics. About eight ways to go here, but it is not just a normal. He has been dead on about the vectors. Jonathan bill gross coming up as well. Seedata firms up and you the fed potentially high, you see the front end on the twos, but i wonder what it means for the longer end of the curve. Tom a lot of the consensus that is you have movement in the fiscal year higher yield, but the curve flattening is a twoyear, but it or that is a guest between bill gross and the real background here, domestically is the movement from sub 2 even sub 1 2. 5 gdp. Nobody knows when that is. When does this economy click in . Jonathan the productivity gains are nowhere to be seen, that is two straight quarters. Tom before your president ial moving average of productivity and we are only once since Richard Nixon was president have we been at such tech levels of productivity. Jonathan at this point, we go back to the adp report as a Reference Point and we know that it is no leading indicator, the last time we were in the one 50s in the summer of 2015, we had a high two sprint, bubble was in there was a broadbased slowdown across sectors. At the minutiaok of adp, i dont have time for it given its value to where we are going. What i would say is that stack of data gets you back to this , where you have a lousy First Quarter and there is that whole thing of when we pick up and there is a mystery to that which the silliness about the june meeting, John Williams in San Francisco is one of percent right, they have no clue eight or 12 fed speakers, today. Carol i think it is like 20. Tom 20 fed speakers and all of them agree they have no clear until they get to the june meeting. Jonathan really looking forward to the program coming up tomorrow. Tom Michelle Meyer and bill gross. Jonathan that will be on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. Carol sticking with jobs day, just under an hour from now, we receive an initial jobless claims. And how firstquarter earnings may shape that number. Whispering in steve friedman. In stevebring friedman. Would you want to be a fed a member of the fed right now . Steve there is a lot of crosscurrents that they are facing and it makes the communication very challenging. Carol what does it tell you about what they might do . Steve i think they are at the point where they realize the growth is very weak and in order for them to move a word with raising rates, they will want to see a turnaround in tension and growth for q2 is on track. They will want to see infla