The hour. We are delighted to have both of you here. Kicking us off right now is vonnie quinn. State johnretary of kerry and his russian counterpart agreed on a ceasefire and a meeting in munich. They also agreed to airdrop humanitarian aid to syrian cities. Still be planes will able to attack islamic state. In oregon, the last four holdouts in the occupation of the wildlife refuge go before a federal judge today. They surrendered to agents yesterday. Now that they are battling oneonone, more differences between democratic president ial candidates are emerging. As they debated last night, referred toton Bernie Sanders ideas as unrealistic. But Bernie Sanders says he thinks voters are ready for a new reality. Bernie sanders the American People are tired of establishment politics, establishment economics. They want a political revolution. Come together, not let the us,ps of the world divide and say in this great country we need a government that represents all of us. Caucuses will be held in nevada eight days from now. I am vonnie quinn. Julie we have a rebound in markets this morning. U. S. Futures pointed to a higher open as we were seeing a little bit of a recovery from all the selling yesterday on pessimism that Central Banks around the globe cannot do enough to stem the tide of some of the slowing economics that we are seeing potentially around the world. If you look at what happened, what is happening in europe and what did happen in asia, the rally that we are seeing did not extend to japan. Japan profits fell. It was a holidayshortened week. S p, the stoxx europe 600 was helped in part by what we are seeing in the banking industry. Commerzbank shares are rising after it became one of the few European Banks with fourthquarter earnings that beat estimates. Are surging, and they are pulling up many other European Banks along with them. Deutsche bank, Credit Suisse, and ubs. We will talk much more about this theme throughout the show. Going into today, we have seen the msci global index enter into a bear market. Last may is when it hit its high, now i decline of 20 . Technically we are in a bear market. I wanted to check on currencies as well because i mentioned what happened in japan. We are seeing the dollar strengthened versus the japanese yen, but that has been the exception rather than the rule. Weakness, soeeing brought dollar strength, dollar rebound that we are seeing today. I also wanted to look at oil prices. Aere, too, we are seeing rebound. Brent is up 5 as we are hearing rumblings from the uae that maybe we will see an agreement on Oil Production cuts. Surgingtility has been along with overall oil volume. Here you have a chart going back a year. This volatility number is the highest since 2009. David markets are rising this morning, but it has been a week that has been turbulent with selloff, and that has been pushing insiders to start buying. Dimon,ns ceo, jamie yesterday purchased 26 million in his companys shares with his own money. Bill daley, you are a former colleague of jamie dimons. You aboutthis tell his bank and what is generally going on with banks . Bill he is in it faster and sees that he is an investor and sees a opportunity, but he sees the importance of stepping up in a time of great uncertainty and making a statement about his bank. It was a statement more important about the bank and the then and even about even about him as an investor. David why is it that we have seen such a selloff in banks . Why have banks become such a vote such a focal point . In europe, and that is where it really started, you see an opportunity and real challenges with these banks. We are in many ways, our Financial Sector is very strong. We are kind of in the eighth or ninth inning in the regulatory battles, and all of the things that went on. Europe is way behind that, so there is still a tremendous challenge from a regulatory point of view. There is a bleed going into the u. S. Financial sector that it is a little too much considering the health of that industry. When you look at a lot of the energy clients, no question that they will be stretched for quite a while. David take a look at this and react. I think it can do both. U. S. Banks have corrected reasonably as well. The right thing to do in the current environment is to spread your bets. Buying some European Banks and buying some uris banks some u. S. Banks bill to me it is a value play. These things are trading at. 6 book value, so far under book value in either the book value makes no sense, which i am not sure that is right. There is a lot of equity in these companies. A lot of them have been recapitalized and are looking as strong as ever. This is a potentially buying opportunity, but with European Banks, you have to wonder how they will make money Going Forward. They are getting out of Investment Banking in a wholesale way. Julie one of the other things they are looking at you talked about book value, and price to earnings ratio. Bank earningsci index. There is quite a gap, quite a discount that banks are trading at right now. Something else i wanted to look at, since we are looking at insider buying. It is not only investors saying lets step in and make some and by banks of shares of banking stocks. This is i nsd on bloomberg. You see insider buying of financials in yellow, versus insider buying of the s p 500 broadly. You see this surge is not just jamie dimon. We are seeing other Bank Executives make similar moves. There is a big difference with what the u. S. Banks look like right now, the assets they have on their Balance Sheets, the transparency, and what the European Banks are holding and the lack of transparency there. That is why we see them valued at less than half look. Exactly. No one talks about the asian banks and the difficulties. When people realize their potential challenges, that is going to be a problem. Bill getting back to jamie dimon, jpmorgan has had two years of record profits. About 25 billion in net income. He has been the ceo for close to 10 years, more than 10 years, and he is buying at a time when the bank is making record profits. He knows a lot about what is going on at that firm, and if he is buying, that is a bullish sign, let alone taking his fullyear salary. Matt he will still have some money left over. Think about jpmorgan and the difference with Credit Suisse. Bill European Banks are basket cases. David that is before you get to asian banks. There was a note that came out yesterday saying there could be a huge problem. Wel it may dwarf anything are concerned about in europe. The health of our Financial Sector ought to be celebrated, and many people in the political system continue to eat up the banks. When you look at what we have done, and the pain that has been there, obviously the shareholders, the employees we took the pain very early in our Financial Sector. That was a great statement about the leadership of a lot of our and the regulators at the time, making sure that changes were made early on, pain was taken, and they moved on and are strong. We act surprised that insiders are buying stocks. Forget about the opportunities they may see. These are leaders, and they should be doing this. Not if they really believe their institutions are in trouble, but nobody ever says that anyway. But the fact that they are stepping up, we should not be surprised and we should not maybe think that is such a great thing. They should be doing this. They are leaders of institutions. They stand up and say their institutions are healthy and they put their money where their mouth is. Matt jamie dimon can see that he may be does not have the Energy Exposure that European Banks do. Lets look at the Underlying Energy markets. Late yesterday, the uae said opec members are ready to cooperate in production cuts. How many times have we heard this . From russia, from iran, it was rumored. Venezuela set it. None of that has come to fruition yet, but it helped to boost crude higher. What i find interesting is when 4 or 5 and we are still only at 27. 41 a barrel. It has been a rough week for crude. Janet yellen also spoke of her surprise at how far oil prices have fallen. Janet yellen markets have been and we have been quite surprised by movements in oil prices. I think in part they reflect supply influences, but demand may also play a role. Matt lets get more with Stephen Schwarzman with stephen. Before we get into concerns about the macro environment, what do you think about these reports that opec may hold talks and may cut production . If you are willing to buy oil based on what the uae or what nigeria or venezuela are saying, i will sell you all the oil you want to buy. So until the saudis come out and say something, until they with iraneally ok building a nuclear arsenal, and i am really ok with iran putting posts oil on the market and , iing my market share away am ok with that. Until the saudi say that, i am skeptical of any words coming out of anybody of the saudi arabia. Up wellu have been set for this route in crude because you are bearish on the economy. You have been saying for a while that you think the u. S. Is ready for a recession, or headed for a recession. Why do you say that when we see gdp growth last quarter standing at 2 , 2. 5 , unemployment below 5 . Wages finally starting to rise. What makes you think we are headed for a recession . Stephen curry first and foremost, unemployment stephen first and foremost, on a plummet is not below 5 . First of all, unemployment is not below 5 . Any jobs created at the end of the great recession, we borrowed 420,000 for each job. We created 1. 6 jobs for every job lost during the recession. To put that into historical context, after the doubledip recession, we created six jobs we everyone job three created six jobs for every one job. Almost a third of them have been wagers and bartenders. So while we are looking at the energy patch, which has shed 150,000 jobs that pay twice the average of every american out there, and we are replacing those with bartenders and waiters. I cannot get bullish. More to the point, when we look at, durable goods, when we capex, durable goods, everything will headline is below record levels or levels we have only ever seen during a recession. So, that said, the scariest thing you said was janet yellen is playing ademand decline in oil prices per thanks, janet. We have seen not just a decline in oil prices, we have seen it in iron ore, in coal. David the scariest thing that you said is that our government is lying to us. You said unemployment is at 10 . Are you really saying that they are misrepresenting our unemployment situation . Stephen no, the media is. David janet yellen said unemployment is at 4. 9 . I did not. Stephen janet yellen is not lying. But i can strangle numbers to make them say whatever i want. When you look at the headline employment number and factor in the Labor Force Participation rate, it is now at 40year lows. When you factor in Labor Force Participation before the recession, where it was over the last 30 years, the Unemployment Rate is 9. 9 . The government are not lying in the media is not lying. It is choosing which headline they want to talk about. Matt so you are referring to the you six number. Youre right, it is around 9. 9 . Stephen schork, he has been very bearish on the u. S. Economy, which has set him up well for this oil trade. A lot of people do not agree, and that is why we see the slight rebound, maybe one of the reasons we see the slight rebound in stocks today. Earlier we talked all about headwinds facing European Banks, but one german bank has investors cheering today, sending shares up 15 . That is next. I am vonnie quinn. Pandora has been battling online rivals and the music industry. Mayinternet Radio Service lose the fight to become a standalone radio company. It may put itself up for sale. It is facing growing competition from spotify and apple. In the wireless world, at t is ericsson tol and meet the increasing demand for sports, movies, and smartphone access to home appliances. Ford is launching four new sportutility vehicles because they say baby boomers and millennials like them. They will be phased in over the next four years. Tt now to global go rose 15 thisares morning, leading the way to a rally in European Bank stocks, which they desperately needed. Martin blessing speaks to hans nichols about the impact of negative rates on the strained banking system. Martin we see negative Interest Rates already for some time. We are pricing deposits of large deposit holders on the negative side, but you cannot pass on these rates for private consumers, so of course there is a certain margin squeeze on the deposit side. We are trying hard to offset this, but that creates a difficult earnings environment for banks. Guy mario draghi is going to be convening the ecb on march 10, and there is speculation we could see negative rates going even further. Is that something you would be happy to see . Would you advise them against that because of the effect it is having on the Banking Sector, the tax him as you just described it . Sector,on the banking of course it will put another burden, but in the end, the ecb has to take the position not to basically increase Bank Balance Sheet or profits, but to see a Monetary Policy that is up to their position. They had to fulfill the mandate, so we will see what mario does in the coming weeks. Guy but europe needs the banks, and europe needs the banks to be working properly, and you look at what is happening right now with regulations, negative rates, you just described the effect it has on your business. Is this a cocktail that will be ultimately positive for the european economy . Well, of course it puts a significant burden, regulation and the low Interest Rate on bank profits, but if you look at the overall credit supply in europe, that is slightly up. Gross Growth Numbers we expect growth this year to be up around 1. 3 . That is not great, but the economy is growing. Faster growth would be better, but i think we will see a painfully slow recovery in europe. But things are moving forward. Not that was guy johnson, hans nichols. But obviously martin blessing, the important part of that, that hehat he cannot cannot say anything percent of banks, but his bank is faring well. Aig is down 18 so far this year, the Second Straight Quarterly loss yesterday. There are a couple of new people on the board. More on that story on bloomberg. David welcome back to bloomberg. Aig posted a Second Straight Quarter loss yesterday. In the aigets bring reporter for bloomberg news. Bill daley and bill cohan are still with us. Andt was a really bad loss people were accounting for some of the trouble at aig, but this was worth than analyst estimates. A lot of people new Hedge Fund Performance is had really been bad at aig, and also activists came in at the right time. So they put a couple of activists on their board. They put john paulson on the board, and a representative of carl icahn. Navistar,he board of hertz. Go on the didnt carl board himself . He said he was too busy. Something that kind of shocked me, out of the 10 most notable campaigns, since the beginning of 2014, he has huge settlements in nine of them. David a pretty good track record. Matt aig winnowing its business down. Bill daley and bill cohan. We will be right back with more on bloomberg. The conference call. The ultimate arena for business. Hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. The only problem with Conference Calls eventually they have to end. Unless you have the comcast business voice mobile app. It lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. Ive never felt so alive. Make your business phone mobile with voice mobility. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back. Futures up across the board. Are over, tom keene says. Oil is down now. It was up when i came in. 27. Still at we were at 30 . , former white house chief of staff, former secretary of commerce. Ohan is with us. We are also here with tom keene. Matt an Important Role in television is you need to be seen. Lets start with a vonnie quinn. Vonnie the u. S. And russia compromised to agree on a truce in syria next week. The world powers met yesterday. Kerry said there are many crosscurrents that make it complicated. But we are convinced that is the only way syria survives and can flourish again and that you can make peace. Coalition forces will still make attacks against islamic state. Meanwhile, he manager and assistance will go to the towns hit hardest in the fighting. Has been spewing natural gas for months. It will cost the utility involved more than 3 million, including potential fines. Is trying totions destroy the zika virus. The u. N. Atomic Energy Agency proposed sterilizing male mosquitoes, so when they made, mate, the progeny never hatch. Thanks. I told bill daley before you came in, you have the perfect thing for him. Dr. Weinberg has experience from 20 to 30 years ago. He is impatient. We have never before i am trying to speak like a daily. We have never before awakened to see conditions in as sour a state as today. Why is no government leader anywhere in the g7 calling a confab to address of the collapse. This is criminal neglect of the eurozone. Are we just worn out . Is true. K that there is a serious challenge to democra