Anna welcome to bloomberg daybreak. I am anna edwards. Manus some breaking news from banks to oil. Kicking off with bmp. Anna reporting numbers. They have missed fourthquarter net profit. It came in at 1. 4 4 billion euros. The estimate was 1. 6 3 billion euros. It was a resilient business. The q4 trading revenue rising. But the pretax profit is down by 36 . They are booking a few items as well. Booking goodwill at their polish unit. Restructuring costs in their belgium belgian and australian units. They are trying to get to or targeting levels. They are also talking about caustic calving and investment in technology. Laying out the they are also anding about cost cutting investment in technology. Missing estimates in the Fourth Quarter. Manus this is one of the big nordic Oil Companies out there. Net loss in the Fourth Quarter. 40 million. Taking on an impairment charge. Fourthquarter net loss for statoil. Capital expenditure. Ceo wants to bring it down. For exploration, spending about 1. 5 billion euros 1. 5 billion. The government is one of the biggest shareholders. Positive be cash flow in 2017. Those are the top line in the numbers. We will have a conversation exclusively with the statoil ceo. He will be joining the Daybreak Team at 7 00 a. M. U. K. Time. The twoyear anniversary since he sat down with us when he took the helm. Anna risk radar. Let us show our viewers where we are. Asian stocks have been a touch weaker. Topix down. New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar making the news overnight. The new Zealand Dollar up on Inflation Expectations. The Central Bank Governor is stepping down in september. Telstra yen currency no change in Interest Rates from the rba. Manus keeping an eye on the bond of markets. Fed is hawkish. March is on the table. Government bond yields hitting the lowest level in two weeks. For a variety of reasons. The european situation as well. Slightly more risk off in the market. Snp unchanged at the moment. Anna let us get the Bloomberg Business news. The Trump Administration will return to court today to argue it has brought authorities over it has Broad Authority over national security. Justice Department Lawyers are to appear before a panel in San Francisco to seek the reversal of a Lower Court Ruling that puts it the executive order on hold. The move stranded refugees, triggered protests and handed the new government its first crucial test. Drop will not be allowed to adjust the u. K. Parliament during a state visit to britain that is the view of john virgo following calls by lawmakers to not give to the u. S. President the honor of addressing both houses of parliament after the introduction of a ban on people from some majority muslim countries traveling to america. This imposition of the migrant band, i would myself have been strongly opposed to an address by President Trump in westminster hall. After the imposition of the migrant band by President Trump, i am even more strongly opposed. New zealand centralbank governor will step down when his term ends in september. The Deputy Governor spencer will for six months until a permanent successor is appointed in 2018. Appointed in 2012, the governor s time has been marred. The reserve bank of australia has left Interest Rates unchanged as a stronger global backdrop boosts a commodity prices. The cash rate was kept at 1. 5 of 28ecast of by 27 economists of bloomberg. Reaffirming the forecast predicting the economy to rebound after an unexpected contraction in the Third Quarter and headline inflation to rise above 2 this year. Steeredmay has easily off efforts. Mps voted down to opposition amendments that wouldve required administer they also shut down attempts to make may government inuks scotland, wales, and northern ireland. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. You can find more stories on the bloomberg at top. I am shery ahn and this is bloomberg. Manus thank you. Before we get to the bmp story, on thee lines from value of the euro and mario draghi defending the currency yesterday evening. The french people do not want to apropos what Marine Le Pen may be suggesting. Higher debt level would not produce french growth. Interview is from an in france. Bmp has missed estimates for the Fourth Quarter as earnings fell. Net income doubled to 1. 4 billion euros from a year earlier but that fell short of the 1. 6 billion that Analysts Expected. To bloombergs caroline on the potential impact of brexit and trumps work. , if we go back to the g20 they said any new regulation should have no material impact. If that ise to see in force. If one remains in that framework, it should remain manageable. Caroline this puts european banks at a disadvantage. The world is bigger than just europe and the u. S. There are 20 states that have to come up to an environment that makes it possible for their banks to operate. Caroline you do not see any impact. It is too early. Things are evolving. Caroline one thing that is coming soon is the triggering supposedly of article 50. Are you planning to move some london staff to paris . Isoline our headquarters there. We have to stay close to our clients to serve our clients so that is typically what we will see once we know more detail. The main question on the moving comes from people that have their headquarters activities in the u. K. And who might really need to pull those people out of london and into other areas. We are first a european bank. We already have activities in paris, belgium, and the netherlands. Going to youre not change the balance after brexit . We will have to see. The bank has gotten a huge boost since Donald Trumps election on the hopes that deregulation would hit the industry. Gary has said regulation has prevented the banks from lending. Took aario draghi different video yesterday in brussels. The last thing we need at this point in time is a relaxation of regulation. Extent, the fact that we are not seeing the of significant Financial Stability reached is the reward of the action that legislators and regulators and supervisors have been undertaking since the financial crisis. We are joined by paul donovan. Global chief economist at ubs. Deregulation and doddfrank will be review. Here is mario draghi saying this is the last thing we need. Is the Playing Field for banks potentially becoming more unbalanced in terms of what the banks might be able to do for the u. S. Economy versus european banks . There is a question. Because the u. S. Changes regulations that an American Bank in europe faces changed regulation. And the fact that some banks are still global mean you have to abide by the toughest standards wherever you are in the world. There is another question. Acte see the dodd frank being repealed or changed, that easing of regulation is just like a rate cut. What does the Federal Reserve do in response to this with either quantitative or Monetary Policy . There are three pillars. If you are going to ease on one of the three, is that going to change the first reaction and what does that mean for the u. S. Banking system . Anna we are talking about rate cuts and building walls across the mexican border. All kinds of activities that could be seen as stimulative to the economy. Theare contrasting that to 1930s. Proposal of the fiscal , in particular around the infrastructure section, this is likely to be more inflationary. The impact is on the inflation because not on real gdp we are not an economy that is showing signs of full employment. The big change in the u. S. Last year was at the low skilled started to get pay rises for the first time in roughly a decade. That is a clear signal in my view that the economy has reached capacity and any attempts to push it further do more to inflation anna the week numbers the weak numbers that we got on friday are not a concern to you. This is something called a fed wage tracker index. That has skyrocketed in the last two years. Doesnthy dont why the fed flag that up as a benchmark . The markets have been so focused on the jobs reports. It is not actually what youre supposed to be looking at. You need a far broader range of measures. Great to get your thoughts so far on the program. Manus we are staying put you. That is what the rba has done. Heaping rates on hold but ubs says it is unlikely to move it all this year. Anna Francois Fillon says he will not quit the race. Manus a miss from statoil. Ceo about thee earnings this morning. That conversation at 7 00. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back everybody. Kong, 2 17 p. M. In the afternoon. The hang seng pretty flat. Let us get the Bloomberg Business flash. Statoil has reported an unexpected loss in the Fourth Quarter. Adjusted net loss which includes financial and other items was 40 Million Dollars. Had aerage forecast profit. Later in the program, we will speak exclusively to the ceo of statoil. At 7 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Combine to create one of the Worlds Largest investors in hegemon in hedge funds. Kkr will combine with prisma with palamco. It will vault them to the higher end of the hedge fund industry. Data combine withpartial got exceeded the previous monthly records. According to people familiar with the matter. They say regulators estimate new loans rose last month to a range that could beat the 364 billion record. The credit search highlights the challenge policymakers face as that is your Bloomberg Business flash. The aussie dollar left ratesthe rba unchanged. It comes as bloomberg launches another debris. Another daybreak. Anna good afternoon to you heidi. What is the takeaway . I want to say this is the first daybreak because we are setting the agenda for the asian trading day. We take a look at the news. From the rba. No surprise. We had not heard from the central bank for about two months and they held rates on hold. No fireworks. Philip speaking to script. It was always more of a Factfinding Mission in terms of having a look at the wording of the segment. All in all, it seemed quite upbeat. Did reaffirm its growth and inflation forecast saying we could expect to see gdp growth trending at about 3 over the next couple of years and it expects inflation to pick up to about 2 . Theraction in the gb in gdp in the Third Quarter. A lot of this is hinged on the commodity story. Really surging. To they are relying on this give the improvement when it comes to growth. Almost sort of take two of the commodities on the mining boom in australia. When it comes to the aussie dollar, you spoke earlier about the spike from this statement. Job earning going on. The rba says this complicates things, the stronger currency, especially when it comes to the things they are trying to do which is transition away from the reliance on mining and focuses more on services. You still see that strength resilient for the aussie dollar. It is up about 7 your today. Year to date. Ubs anderson do not be surprised if the rba stays on hold all year. Bloombergs top rated rba analyst expects a cut in august. He expects the commodities rally to peter out. Anna never boring. Haidi lun is the anchor of that program from sydney. Manus she is in there early. Australias trade minister will be joining daybreak australia. Manus staying with the asiapacific. Asian equities decline after the yen led a rally in haven assets. Lyrical uncertainty is rising affecting markets around the world. Political uncertainty is rising, affecting markets around the world. I think the dollar is the underlying driver here. The dollar has absolutely been the driver in the last few weeks but since sunday, there has been a shift. It has become more focused around europe and french elections in particular. What we have seen since the weekend is dollaryen has slumped while the dollar and have done pretty well. A lot of the crosses technically it looks like the yen can rally much further. China. Alking about it may have exceeded a monthly record, the loans. I think that was confusing to people. There have been measures to slightly tighten policy in the last couple of weeks. And then we get a headline about record lending again. It is causing confusion in the market. The main explanation is the recent tightening has been more about removing excess liquidity in the market free chinese new year. 70 of the credit in china is bank loans which is connected to the benchmark rate. There has not been too much tightening yet. I am not too surprised by the new lending record. Manus let us see if they can keep the fuel in the fire. Stay with us staying with us is paul donovan. You have a bandwidth for chinese growth of 6 7 . You said youre not too worried. My proposition is that we are obsessed about whether it is 6. 5 or 7 . Why are you less obsessed . Because it does not matter as much to the rest of the world. The way china is growing with the credit, the careful management of growth ahead of is party congress, what this basically doing is creating a very inward looking economy. My question as a global the world selles more to china at 7 growth if this is the nature of their growth. The answer is not that much more. The difference is fairly academic. A differentat is story because the u. S. Is growing more strongly. You know how americans are, they are spending all of the time. Doing that are not because this is more of a housing, infrastructure, investment story. Anna on the other side of the pacific, how easy is it to invest in china and they are doing a lot to open their doors. Foreign investors are still worrying though. Theyare seeing signs that will not want to get involved because they cannot get out. People invest because they want profit. They want to get money out. And the capital controls china is imposing leaves things in question. As well as lack of transparency. Inch is somewhat heightened this environment in china at the moment. Anna paul donovan will stay with us. Manus earnings from the worlds biggest insurer and we speak to with your cfo schneider. For bnpeen a miss paribas this morning and statoil. We have that conversation at 7 00 a. M. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe into that door. On this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. But these days its phones before forks. They want wifi out here. But behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. Wifi pro from comcast business. Public wifi for your customers. Private wifi for your business. Strong and secure. Good for a door. And a network. Comcast business. Built for security. Built for business. Anna welcome back. 6 30 a. M. In london. Dollaryen fairly stable. 111. 79. We are waiting for breaking news. Manus i love your optimism. As we wait for the numbers to break, we are looking for a dividend of 8. 25 euros. Less catastrophe in the world. Must come in the must come in t half hour. Manus schneider will join anna and myself. We will be catching up with the munich re cfo. Dividend, 8. 6 euros. The number the market was for 8. 25. R a. 25 the landscape is changing. In that context, there is much to talk about regarding the shifting movement in the market. 8. 6 in dividend. We wait for the net income numbers to come across the terminal. Let me open this up for you in terms of the other information. They have a variety of things to say. I am going to wait for proper details. Net income, 500 million. That is a miss. It is a miss on the net income. Anddends is a nice comfortable number rewarding shareholders. Anna let us get to todays version of daybreak. Let us have a look at some of the stories. The cover story is around greece. The imfs slamming greeces saying the government will not come close to meeting fiscal targets. Butce is making progress has stopped short of making any decisions about financing the next stage of the countrys bailout. The imf has continually said there needs to be more Debt Forgiveness for anything to progress. Otherwise, there is no Debt Forgiveness. The next story. Statoilstatoil emp 500 million euros. The market was expecting 630. We have bp numbers. They hit the tape at 7 00 a. M. U. K. 10. Focuses on the race. Francois fillon says he is sorry for employing his wife and children. The former favorite is now running third in the polls. Manus markets. Risk off yen. Naomie msci asiapacific index is pretty much unchanged. The shanghai composite is lower. Political uncertainty infecting markets across the globe. Let us take a look at gmm to see how this is playing out across asset classes. You can see a bit of a mixed picture across indices across asia in terms of the equity space. Space, the at the fx euro is down for a second day. Weaker against the aussie and the kiwi. The aussie has raised losses. The kiwi is rallying after Inflation Expectations jumped. That currency is up for a fourth day against the dollar. The 10 year treasury yield is lower down two basis points. The biggest drop in more than two weeks. Talk about the flight to safety. Yields coming down in the asian on to space. In the commodity space, Oil Rebounding and downward pressure on industrial metals. This is the msci asiapacific index. Prettyex overall was much unchanged. Real estate and utilities consumerming energy, discretionary leading the losses. And talking again about flight to safety. You mentioned the yen. Dollaryen, 111. 83. It jumped 0. 8 in just the last session. And gold, the highest since november, taking a bit of a breather a