Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20160921 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG Countdown September 21, 2016

6 00 in the morning in london. A lot of the focus today still in tokyo. We will get to what is happening in the Asian Session right now. And tell you what the boj has been doing. No change to the negative Interest Rate policy, 0. 1 . But the reorientation of the policy is moving to target yield curves, away from setting specific monetary stimulus per year. This is the impact on the market, if we can throw the risk radar, you will see the monetary stimulus may now fluctuate in the shortterm, as they seek to control the yield curve. Inflation about 2 . There are the headlines. This is reactionary the 10 year did actually get to zero. If you can call zero positive territory, just got there, falling away since. The japanese yen at 102. 69. Shy of 1 by just against the dollar. Perhaps that would make governor boj, pleased at least in the short term. And a reorientation the policy on buying, to ron the spectrum of the buying. ,inked to the topics outperforming the nikkei. Because we said earlier, banks are also rallying as a result. No further negative on those Interest Rate. Lets get more from david ingles, who joins us now, poring over the details. There from the boj, david what is the latest you can tell us . David wright, so as part of the japanese yen is concerned, basically looking now to the fed, traders art squaring position ahead of that. As far as this latest concern, it was a 72 vote. Three crucial votes, because it is very confusing. As you mentioned, policy rate unchanged as. 1 . And as far as banks are concerned, point two, they are now going to focus on the yield curve, not so much on this rigid specific target for expanding monetary base. So, what they are looking at right now, they are saying shortterm fluctuation in that expansion metric, if you will, as they in other words are seeing, trying to keep the yield curve from flattening. Theyre playing up the bond markets, as we just showed you. When it comes to these purchases, they have kept it unchanged. But they refocused part of the repurchasing, and that is why we are seeing the topix index rising in tokyo as well. Boj made aavid, the very pronounced statement on inflation. Some people talking ahead of this meeting as if the boj, might step away from that inflation target at least the specific timing. What have they said this morning . David right, so i think well get more meat, the press conference happening in a few hours, hour and a half roughly speaking. And the rising inflation concerns, they said we are no longer in deflation, so that is. 1. The second point, when you look at what is happening, the oil price and the sales tax, overseas factors they say have lowered Inflation Expectations. So, while japan is out of inflation, the bank said it will take more time before they reach and maintain or reach that 2 inflation target, and they will do everything they can to reach the target so far. Some none of moving of the goal posts, as of yet. Anna and exciting oil and various such factors. David ingles from tokyo. Well be back with david from tokyo to get the latest market reaction. Latest market reaction. And you can follow all of the action of course on your bloomberg to the top live blog, including governor k urodas briefing. That is where you will find the top live blog on all things boj the 400 let us check in on market action. We agree cap am of the moves. Stronger bank stocks, higher in the topics, and the moves in the fixed income market were immediate, but not sustained perhaps. Haidi lun has the details. Summary of what we have seen so far, talking markets, that they had to digest given the information that came from the bank of japan as became a very, very late with this decision. Investors really great workout for this materially means, the investing environment. But take a look at the nikkei 225, continuing to percent. By, one we are seeing the rest of the region starting to catch up little bit. We did see gains, initially not much of reaction. But take a look at sydney stocks, up by 710 to 1 . We are seeing reaction to taiwan, which has been up in negative territory. And in hong kong, we were sitting lowermost the day. Now, the engagement about 6 10 of 1 . Nort korea seeing a little bit of a, not much in the way of southeast asia, but notable to point out the likes of jakarta coming off losses of as much as 1 earlier. We are now looking pretty flat. And thailand accelerating. These are markets that will be more focused generally on what the fed has to say, in terms of the impact on capital outflows coming from emerging markets here in asia. China not reacting at all. Shanghai more or less quite all day. But take a look at the banking shares can really they have been soaring, even though we do still have the possibility of going into deeper negative Interest Rates, according to the boj. The fact that they did not do it at this meeting is very cause for relief. And we have seen the lenders surging today. And the biggest lenders up by 7 10 of 1 . And mitsubishi gaining. And you see the rest of the lot. In gains today. A real sigh of relief when it comes to the Japanese Banks, fighting hard against the negative Interest Rate policy. Anna . Anna some of them have been quite vocal. Haidi lun joining us from hong kong. We are getting breaking news from european corporate spirit that is good that briefly. And we will get back to the boj story. And interest tax Interest Rate, coming in at 2. 1 one billion euros, that is broadly in line with the 2. 1 that was estimated. This is the worlds biggest clothing retailer, first half profits bolstered by the online expansion. We heard that they operate eight brands through 7000 stores in 90 countries. Earlier on a lowered the retail rate expansion because they wanted to focus instead on bolstering online. That seems to be paying off at least in the set of numbers. They have been benefiting also from the steady pace of Economic Growth in spain. Inditex gets a fit of sales from special markets. Currency has been harming on two fronts, strong dollar and weakness they are other exposed to, the russian ruble, mexican peso. Analyst will be pouring over the statements to see if there is any clue on just how strong that online offering is proving to be. What that means to Expansion Plans, and what impact currency plans of having a letter to the bloomberg first were news. Where joined by Rosalind Chin, who has details on we do know this morning. Rosalind thanks, anna. Committed to building a consensus on stabilizing the oil market between opec and nonmember countries. That is according to the cartels secretarygeneral. Hes spoke exclusively to bloomberg in rome, as the Energy Conference was organized by the european collaboration. Minister, andle them haveent, both of a short me that have assured me that iran will do everything they can to enhance the members within the opec group, as well as outside opec, to build a consensus on the way forward. So, im quite satisfied with the assurance. Rosalind the uk Prime Minister theresa may has insisted that britains decision to leave European Union was not a decision to walk away from allies. Her comments came during her first ever speech as pm to the United Nations General Assembly. Prime minister may when the british people voted to leave the eu, they did not vote to turn inward or while away from any of our partners in the world. Faced with challenges like migration, a desire for greater control of their country, and a mounting sense that globalization is leaving working people behind, they demanded a politics that is more in touch with their concerns and bold action to address them. But that action must be more global, not less. Rosalind the new york bombing suspect has been charged with the blast in manhattan and in new jersey. The fbi has revealed he was investigated in 2014, following a domestic incident. Authorities in a have discovered a link between him and any terrorist group or, since. Accomplices. Wells fargo rose 2. 8 , after the ceo was grilled at capitol hearing. Figures,senate banking facing consequences for letting employees open millions of unauthorized accounts over the years. Said it and investors could leave the bank with a reputational scar, one that cannot recover from. You have not resigned, you have not returned a single nickel of personal earnings, have not fired a single, Senior Executive instead evidently your definition of accountable is to push the blame to the lowlevel employees, do not have the money or a fancy pr firm to defend themselves. It is gutless leadership. I except for responsibility accept for the possibility for all unethical sales practices in our Retail Banking business. And i am fully committed to fixing this issue, strengthening our culture, and taking the necessary actions to restore our customers trust. Rosalind global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 200 100 20 countries. You can find more on the bloomberg at top go. I am Rosalind Chin. Anna . Anna thank you very much. But as to the latest reaction to the bojs statement, the intention. Joining us now is takuji, and in the studio, jane foley, senior fx strategist at Rabobank Group. Let us come to you first in tokyo, takuji, to talk about your reaction to what we heard from the boj. Is this what you are expecting . T quite. Well, no fixing the longterm Interest Rate, i would say it is one of the monetary policies, although i mean it is definitely unconventional. Look at let us look at what the bank of japan did. Can we see anything that would fix the economy . The 10 year rate was minus three 2 . How does raising Interest Rates reflect the economy . Anna does this do something positive to the Banking Sector, they perhaps have been listening to the Banking Sector who said the Business Model has been eroded by negative Interest Rates, therefore has adjusted the policy with the hope that maybe more lending happens, is that the reflation very force . It does help the current banking industry. But i would say that japanese Banking Systems are outdated. These banks are very inefficient, 73 structure. The reason they are unprofitable is not because of a multibank of japan, but because the businesses are unprofitable, so by helping these Inefficient Industries i dont think the bank of japan is actually helping the japanese economy. Anna stay with us. Let us bring you into the conversation. Do you see something in the suite of policy announcements, additional action from the boj, anything that you say that is replaced very, that is going to help the boj in the battle to drive up cpi. Jane given the amount of pressure and criticism the bank of japan has been under this i think thatlarly, a systems bowl move ostensible move. The bank is coming a topfive 82 ofof Something Like the stocks in the nikkei 225. That is quite sensible. I think to bring in some sensibility and the inflation target again, probably quite sensible given the amount of pressure they have been under, the liquidity they have been failing to hit that target, and that seems to go back to the start of the week. Even the australians added a little bit of flexibility, the wording around the inflation target, too. This might not be the only centralbank that looks toward doing this. There are some sensible movements. Whether or not it is really going to achieve an acceleration in the inflation of japan, really remains completely unanswered. Anna let us deal with the immediate market reaction. We have the yen weaker by the dollar, perhaps that would be the shortterm, something the boj would not be disappointed to see. Given the reaction we have seen as some previous announcements by the boj, but what we saw on the bond market this is the 10 jgb. Yield on the this is just this morning. The initial aftermath of the announcement, we so its fight back up out of negative territory into positive, hitting zero for the first time in months. But then establishing shortlived, and that was going back down again. Jane the market is not sure how it will exactly organize the inflationary targets. This is what be difficult. This is going to be, in focus watching this as it pans out. We have seen the banking stocks lose another negative Interest Rate, and hope that maybe the yield curve will be lasting. We have seen that come through. Making socks helping the target nikkei 225, and that is really helping dollaryou go higher, too. But i suspect the movement in dollaryen will remain dovish. Anna and we look into that little while. Thisi, i know that before announcement you expected the boj might step away from the 2 inflation target. Somein the studio does see increasing possibility around the target, given what they said today. How do you view the target . J still well, bo maintains the 2 target, but i would say it is less than before. Before they were saying they would do anything they can to ,chieve 2 inflation in two years. Now theyre saying they like to Percent Inflation but they do not really know when they can achieve it. So clearly, there is a monetary accomplishment and the bank policy today. Anna less monetary commendation. What you make of the commitment to target the yield curve, away from setting specific monetary stimulus per year and towards doing what they need to do to get the yields on the yield curve when a woman to be . How are they going to achieve think . O you we are still learning the details about how that will work, i guess. Takuji right. Well, in the same way to the bank of japan can control the shortterm Interest Rate, the bank of japan can theoretically control longterm Interest Rates. You know, they can buy or even sell at maturity. So, they can control the Interest Rate. I dont think they have that much difficulty, but the problem is ok, then the market will be rigged. It would not be a market price, it is a fixed price. And we do not really know what the true longterm definite Interest Rate should be. Anna jane, the market rate . The stock market rate . Other peoples words, not mine. Isabel you see it . Jane if you look at the mountain of interaction with Central Banks, quantitative easing, negative Interest Rates, etc. , we really do have to ask ourselves if stock markets in particular justified given that. Advisors,uji, macro think you very much. Jane foley, Rabobank Group stateless. Coming up, we find out why one projectionsks fmoc will fall hard. That is coming up. Time,0 am in london theresa may says the uk has not turned inward. Aboute fed ceo speaks inflation. And of course, we will bring you extensive coverage around the fed policy decision. With the boj outoftheway, at least to some extent, we will hear from the fed. From half an hour later, you can watch Janet Yellens News Conference live. Bloomberg customers can follow all that on top life go. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back everybody. It is 6 21 in london. A lot of the action mode has been in tokyo, of course hearing from the boj no change to the negative Interest Rate policy. But they have moved to target the yield curve, away from the monetary sinless per year. Estimates may fluctuate in the short term as they seek, to control the yield curve seeking inflation above 2 . We will have a conversation about the stability built in the this is the reaction we are seeing in the markets. We have seen the yield on the 10 year coming back up to zero. Positive territory, but then dropping again. The yen weakness that we have seen of the more longlived, down by 1 10 of 1 . Against the japanese u. S. Dollar. We are waiting for the fed. That could be crucial. Xn the divergence between topi reflected at the bond buying program, extending to topix stocks. The nikkei 225 been supported by that failure to move any lower on the Interest Rates, which are already lower in negative japan. Let us put the boj to one side, kind of and talk about the fed. And the forecast is hard, according to a person who has notes saying janet yellen has found it hard to fend off her dumbest inclinations. He also added it might send fmoc rate projections for the next three years, leaning lower. Still with us, jane foley, senior fx reddest and Rabobank Group. I pulled up the bloomberg function, which shows you where the members of the fomc think the members will be. A lot of focus on whether expectation will be brought down, whether these dots fall lower. Jane again, this is the trend the last few years. Again and again in markets, pushing back the expectation of the Interest Rate rise. Because Inflation Expectations remain quite moderate, and when that remains moderate, etc. , this is the thing. And this is what janet yellen forgets. Againe has time and looking at the jobless american, etc. But i think right now it is more rathernflation outlook, than the jobs outlook. I think we can pull apart the figures and say yes the mother has been improvement. But that inflation, that is still benign. And i think today, it was really important for the markets just whether or not the fed signals whether there could be a december Interest Rate rise or not really about the in 2017. Ns, because it seemed effectively do anyone Interest Rate hike maybe even less, that yield curve is going to remain reall

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