welcome to countdown. 6:00.don, it is here and the sun is in the the sky. >> you have the commodity story havell us and we volumesed questions of and we had all of that with the traders overnight. chart andhis on the we have a new seven-year high. we had up to the 23rd of june and the referendum on the eu and we had three polls that we and 5%.bout between 2% we had one that was a lot closer to that and it will continue to be all over the place. in and youthe run commodity inberg the bull market. it is a tortured run and citigroup is raising china demand and there are a number of facets in their. they have all but taken the punch bowl a way from june and july. go to rosalind chin. >> clinton has secured enough delegates to secure the nomination. sanders has decided to stay in the race and force a contested convention. a former bank of japan executive says they should abandon the timeframe for action to avoid more drastic action later. had policies that defied common sense and they have a lot of explaining to do. a view of a post-oil future. they want to bring gdp from less than 8%. currenttripled from the figure. it is a goal that some consider to be unrealistic. three have been killed in floods. trapped in their cars in separate interest -- incidences. there was severe damage in any bank or hedge pollsho commissions these should seek a lawyer first. she says that the financial institutions that hope to gain surveys risk breaking the law. >> the global news is 24 hours a day and powered by our journalists from around the world. you can find more stories. >> thank you. let's stay with what is happening. we are standing by with the details. pacific. the asian >> we can thank jerry -- janet yellen. this is what you have. every single sector has grown and it is higher, at the moment. you are looking at the shares and the benchmarks in this index on the way up and what she did was the mining stocks across theg it down individual markets. the other investment team held steady and solid. in southeast asia, i have heard more than one comment from the and that this opens up the possibility of the rally continuing for the next few days grew andarket tend to the currency stories by looking at a stronger dollar yen story and we are looking at the weakness there with about an hour left. >> thank you very much. yellenouch base on janet . she says that she is sure the economy will improve to warrant the jobs number. she was excited -- she was silent on when that would come. the economy is counterbalanced with a mix of forces. supportit will employment growth and inflation. the federal reserve chair warned there could be a big impact. the upcoming referendum in the united kingdom is a u.k. vote with significant economic repercussions. joining us now is david owen. good to have you. just two weeks ago, we had a wave of commentary and the markets adjusted in that direction. and we do notge a figure. it seems strange to think that would change the direction. overnight, we are pushing back andtiming of the fed rates it is more likely to be september with the rate rise and the game is strange. it got normalized at some point. >> good morning. a thing that we tried to do is divine all of the rhetoric and the is probably one of safest markets in the world and it says to me that we are at a tipping point in the ability of the fed to act. >> it shows you the way the sentiment is shifting and it see go in june and you can and it is heightened a reason to not go in june and it may make it very difficult for them. link withtioned a inflation and is janet yellen convinced? there is sagging inflation expectations. seem that we are andng the underlying pickup off again.tapering i understand why she is slightly cautious. they will have to get on with it. we will see. the latest round of estimates from the fred. look at this situation. ability.he it attainable? andt will be attainable they may have one or two rate rises this year. opening thingshe up. stillobal economy is incredibly weak and we do not understand why that is. remain and impose andes for an extended time we have that on markets. there is a 21% chance now and i wanted to comment on the story on what janet yellen said. the rates go up, i have no idea. the markets cannot live with that and they need the federal reserve chair. is very data dependent and they are not committed to do anything. they described the reaction function. , we wered of the day wenking it was possible and are looking at september. there was something we thought now, we in the mix and knew that. >> no news there. >> what is coming up? >> it is a pretty packed agenda have david cameron televised brexit debate. , the economic prospects for 2016 and the report. >> clinton clinches the nomination and becomes the nominee of the party. more on that next. at the viclooking torilla harbor in hong kong. and it is are rising in tokyo.and 2:17 ind chin. to rosalyn with bendingdels screens. use lights will odes and it is likely to give it a head start. business abound, she sees huge potential. china is more volatile and we see tremendous growth and 60 newmont's coming. this will be more volatile and we will see tremendous growth opportunity. >> they are closing the hedge comanager announced she was stepping away. playboy mansion is seeing the billionaire already owns a property next door. this is your bloomberg business flash. .> interesting thank you very much. hillary clinton has enough delegates to clinch the may finallynd obama endorse his former secretary of state. >> make a clear statement. trump repudiating donald and we are going to defeat him. if you vote for me, i will work for you. >> we are joined now bow -- why our white house correspondent. andbattle between clinton sanders, it seems she is not conceding the race. why not and what does that mean? there are various explanations and his explanation is that she only gets to that number with the inclusion of the superdelegates. these are a type of delegates and they are not pledged in any state. he could still get some of these , in theo flip and history of the process, nothing of that scale has ever happened. byis a claim defied historical precedent. tooaybe i am channeling much from that. she is really reticent and this is strategy, isn't it? again, i my watching too much house of cards? am i watching too much house of cards? >> she has to minimize the hurt feelings, to the extent that she can be gracious and let the numbers speak for themselves. arehe other level, there contests in a number of hours the ability to ratchet up the pledged delegate count. themay not get across threshold with pure pledged delegates. canhe is able to win, she go into the general election with a stronger -- to vote todayhave . number andas this senator sanders contest this to july, she will still have this number and will still be the nominee. certainly, there are hundreds of delegates and played today and these are proportionally awarded and it is not a winner take all situation. to the extent that she is able to win over states, it onengthens the claim unifying the party going forward . >> thank you for the latest on hillary clinton. we are bringing our chief backmist from jeffries into this conversation. it looks like clinton and trump in the united states. fromdoes the economic hold the economic point of view? of the your impression economic point of view. >> i do not know the politics side. ratesd will not raise the at the time of the election and we have uncertainty with the this isoing forward and not just true of the united states. votes and we have the elections next year in and it and france and therelicy issues of rate be a timing rises. yesterday, we were looking at the rise of the five star party and in spain. parties andof these their ability to do well at a political level, is this new to you? >> you have this week recovery and you have the income parts of europe had really bad recessions and and it isly recovered not surprising to get these repercussions. moment, this is the issue. >> one thing that caught my attention is a piece from madrid facing a new problem. it is no longer greece. it is spain. outperforming and, isthis trend continues, this more of the issue. recoverya very weak that they have to address. >> very exciting. next, referendum? what referendum? next.s coming up we will have that. >> welcome back. of's get some news out india. the r.b.i. says that monetary policy will come as no surprise. there is no change from the r.b.i.. more crucial is who is running this. .ill he stay or will he go will he take a second term? and those who praised his record cut the cpi. of the r.b.i. does his press conference with this interest rate. let's get the first word news. we are looking at one day after -- this was an attempt to unify the party. sanders has doubt to stay in the race and force a contested convention. she was silent on when this might come. economy was affected by a mix of countervailing forces and for inflation outweighing the negative ones. >> a former bank of japan executive said that they abandoned the timeframe for inflation. inroded is engaged aggressive stimulus and the boj supports more policies and will have a loved experience -- and a lot of explaining to do. approved aa has sweeping economic overhaul. the transformation program includes borrowing billions of dollars to shore up finances. they more than triple the current figure. they say the current goal is unrealistic. storms inhe severe werealia, the victims trapped in the cars in separate incidences and they tried to drive through the rising waters. it is worth $41 and anyone looking to do polls should speak to a lawyer first stop that is a warning from the electoral and they risk falling foul of the electoral wall. -- electoral law. more here. and >> thank you. we have the latest headlines fed commentary from janet yellen. caroline hyde takes us through the market reaction. back with theing concern and we are seeing it and this shows you the probability of the rate hike coming down. as she said, they are up for you can dig into all of the significant moves. the energy companies are doing very well and it is still one of the best performers on the commodities front. this is the hang seng. it has done well, because money is coming out from the mainland china and coming into the hong kong stocks. rising.ow see this it is already up. so, clearly, it seems that hong kong has been invoked. the rba stands firm and why the big move? last this have been the cut? i want to give you the significant move and is a potential fat finger. illiquid pretty market. this is what the market is considering. they came down half a percentage point. this have been discussing plenty this morning. are. -- the polls are increasingly showing an exit from the european union. take us through the details. >> i will take the gain, wherever it comes from. the shares are trading and it is and what you have here is a proposition. you are looking at the dividend yield. very smart and they and raisednderweight to neutral. and. about thai uh right now, this chart would suggest yes. caroline was talking about a fat finger and a low liquidity. had aer it is, we have nervous couple of weeks. and what is your best guess? remain inct this to the issue is that it was really close. this would say something different. they feel they are all aware of the issue and they are trying to adjust and capture the problems they have. thehey cannot compared to 1970's. saying they understand what is happening here. markets andrces the there is a certainty here. remain a few that will we are noticing a brexit scenario. there is a tendency to there is annd adjustment on the equity side. , if we curious to know get brexit out of the way, they wake up and they say, we are still in. the united kingdom regrows and it has. , if we we see a relief get through brexit? >> i would expect this to be weaker and it outperforms my expectations. i look at the breakdown and it is more about the service sector. we are going to go in and things have changed slightly. movead the major currency and the fiscal policy has been tightened and there is a loss in the labor markets. and we look atat the latest data and the loss of momentum. and italk about the u.s. seemed that the fed had not really grasped the brexit risk. the votes could have repercussions. talk about that, do they talk about the ?ransmissions they could create they are not talking about the size of the economy. social actionss systemic issues developing more widely and this is a major trading block. anything that throws that off, the world's trade is weak and it pushes the ecb to do more and for the bank of england to cut rates for the fed. reduce the pound ?terling is this a risk? sure it is sterling and i'm not that negative. and its a bigger issue will not be the view on this day . >> thank you very much for joining us. ceop next, the energy giant outlines his vision for the future. it is 9:46 in dubai. welcome back. the markets are digesting what janet yellen has to say. .et's get you up to speed rosalynn is here. new cell phone models, according to people familiar with the matter. they could be unveiled as early as next year and it is likely to give a head start. that sheotors ceo says sees potential. china is seeing tremendous growth and we have new models coming. markets andemerging we still see tremendous growth opportunities. >> this is the author and comanager who announced he was stepping away. the fund will be liquidated and a cash will be returned to clients. more than $100 million to buy -- owns theonaire property next door. to let you have to live at the mansion. that is your bloomberg is this flash. this.will mention we have the explosion that took place in istanbul. and thethe explosion turkish lira is weakening against the u.s. dollar. the ceo'salk about vision for the future and the strategy update since completing the acquisition and it comes as the commodity index reenters. good morning. what are the investors wanting to hear? well, they do not want to hear that, after absorbing the energy deal, shell has the indigestion and the metrics they want to pay attention to is the debt and the dividends. and that is what the company is looking to. now, the issue is the debt. debt is more than any other company in europe outside of the banking sector and it has gone is a threat to go up. what is the threat of funding will increasing and what it mean? say not expect them to there is a threat. about thealk the reserves will be repriced. where will they get money? i think the breakeven price and how shall positions or iflves going forward a goes lower, they have sent down?nd will they go not 60 and they made money on the back of the downstream business and it has been an effective hedge and there is concern it may not be as effective and they are concerned about the oil price. price will go up and they will make money on the deal. what the strategy is and they leverage ratio. ryan chilcote is there and sitting down with the ceo. answerscoming up with to questions from investors. brown and the chairman of the hedge fund conference. it is great to have you on the program. some say there is a conversation and product innovation. is waking up to destructive technology. they came to exploiting the power of the industry. good morning. is the the challenge historical systems and methodology. what are they trying to convince ? systems makeegacy it difficult and we have seen a lot of startups in the market. seeing a lotwe are of strong growth and this is onlineeople get advice and it takes off very strongly. >> there is a lot of nervousness. and robleunds advisors -- robo-advisors. >> the industry faces huge disruption and they are taking a significant market share. if you are in active investor, to are trying too hard demonstrate that your product is a superior product and regulators are putting a lot of pressure on the industry around closet trackers where the funds are and they are tracking the index and the regulators are on the case and they are having to work hard to get on top of that issue. >> do you think that more mergers and acquisitions will be the response? >> i think that there has been talk about the consolidation of the industry and i do not think that we will suddenly see a lot of mergers and acquisitions. athink that there will not be particular increase. i think there is renewed interests coming and it is a bigger challenge. >> thank you very much for joining us. recap what is going on in turkey. >> we have reports of an explosion in central istanbul. thisderstand that it is in district and ambulances have been sent to the location of the occurred the explosion vehiclesea and police were passing by and there have and an immediate reaction we will keep this tract. >> we will take a short break. janet yellen insists that the rate hike is on the way. that is next. >> janet yellen says she is fully sure the u.s. economy will improve enough to warrant another rate hike despite friday's dire jobs number but she gives little clue as to when it might come. clinton and control, hillary secures enough delegates to claim the democratic nomination according to the associated press. but bernie sanders mouse to stay in the race. in the bloomberg commodity index ends in a bull market. sincerst strategy acquiring bg. >> welcome to "countdown" i am manus cranny in dubai. we are at the futures in the equity futures, where are we expecting to open. the handover has been a positive one. up 0.3% is where we could see it at the start of the trading day. seeing -- up 0.3%. you have an update on what we have been hearing out of istanbul. latest fromery istanbul. we understand that has been a blast. the main -- the blast may have been a bomb left in a car. this is according to our new sources. we have heard reports there has been an explosion in downtown central istanbul. the area we are returned -- referring to is that the blast occurred in -- and balances have been sent to the location. what i have here for you is how we try to put these events into context. thelira is dropping and dollar is rising. we are seeing is very in the market reaction to scale of this event yet to be really defined. that is the state of play at the moment and as we get more we will bring that to our viewers. >> let's get back to the business news this morning. we have shell giving its first capital market day since it but the bg group and giving an update to investors of what it hopes to achieve from that deal. they see the expected synergies of $4.5 billion in 2018. that was were 3.5 billion earlier. it seems there upgrading their expectations around the synergies they can get from this combination of shell and bg. this is a potential for 20 to $25 billion in free cash flow. they say the will exceed the synergy target for 2017. they are talking about new beyondwill be a priority 2020. lots of 's coming out of show. let's get the bloomberg first .ord news >> hillary clinton has reportedly secured enough delegates to clinch the democratic nomination. one day after president obama was said to have spoken to .resident bernie sanders sanders has vowed to stay in the race and force a contested convention. janet yellen says she is fairly sure the u.s. economy will improve enough to warrant another interest-rate increase. >> the economy recently has been affected by a mix of countervailing forces. i see good reason to expect that the positive force supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones. >> a former bank of japan executive says the boj should abandon its timeframe for inflation. -- chancellor merkel -- more policiesloys that defy common sense it will have a lot of explaining to do. saudi arabia has improved the sweeping economic overhaul part of its view of a post-oil future. the program includes cutting up center wages. puppet that is seen clamming to 30% of gdp by 2020. a goal some analysts think is unrealistic. three people have been killed and floods and another appeared to drown. the three victims were all trapped in their cars in separate incidents. it ensures -- ensures say they have already received claims worth $41 million. any banks were hedge funds thinking of committing those polls into the referendum should speak to a lawyer first according to jenny watson. she says that financial institutions hoping to gain an afoul of falling british law. global news 24 hours a day powered by 3400 journalists around the world. you can find more stories on .loomberg manus: some of these headlines coming out across the moment. 25 billion dollars to $30 billion. the headline you will be most focused on disposals, debt cuts and dividends. the dividend is unchanged. is that in sync with what you were thinking? >> i think that shell has delivered where it was prepared to deliver today. capital expenditure they see coming in a toy $9 billion in whenand the ceo of shell he reported on earnings in may said that he sees capital expenditure trending toward $30 billion. also on synergies for the deal, the company previously said they three about -- they see about $3.5 billion worth of synergy. they are now saying that they see that rising to 4.5 to -- $4.5 billion in cost savings. they're slightly better than expected perhaps or better than a previously stated capex forecast. synergieso the forecast as a result of the deal. as investors will also want to know, how is this company going to make money when they have long said they needed $60 per barrel oil price for the steel to make sense. manus: -- anna: ryan will be interviewing the ceo of shell coming up at 7:45 u.k. time. great to have you on the program. let's get your thoughts on this sector. the energy sector, the oil sector. they are talking about their commitment to run disposals. this was a highly watched capital markets day because it is a big acquisition. how do you view this sector? >> we are ultimately positive. it is a sector that has come under a tremendous amount of and ultimately they reacted in a very positive way by cutting quite substantially. we ultimately see the sector having tremendous upside going forward because valuation is at a discount versus the market. how are you preparing for the summer? we have a number of peak risks coming, how do i trade the summer? >> we ultimately see the summer as a hot summer. you can even cheapen the premium by adding a contingency on the euro-dollar going lower. u.k.essage here is the referendum and the spanish the omt on june 26 and decision by the german court are drivers of volatility. anna: janet yellen being vague on the timing, or not committing -- has that taken the summer off your risk list? the rate hike is something that we expect to occur. not in the summer, but more toward december. anna: not september either? >> right. we ultimately see a high probability of a rate hike in september rather than december. the argument is that the unemployment is likely to go below. the path of least resistance is for higher rates going forward. manus: timing all that together, we have the dollar under pressure. the dollar rally battered. gold is on a run higher again. commodities are back in a gold market. do i buy the upside in these commodities? give it to us in terms of the dollar and commodity. >> the ultimate path of least resistance is going to see commodity under pressure. we seen the rates going higher forward simply because of the momentum in the economy. alisa the nonfarm payroll -- obviously the nonfarm payroll has been a bit lackluster. >> what makes you so convinced that the inflation pressures are going to become sufficient so the fed is going to be able to push the hike button? the other concerns globally are outweighing the outward pressure and even some of the voices -- how pressure is really sustainable. >> we've undergone a tremendous amount of work with respect to the cycle and ultimately we're down to the phillips curve. we're -- the numbers it could be a pretty smooth path going forward. they have started to move to be in thisosed deflationary spiral that people have feared at the beginning of this year. chart for youa here in china. everything that happens here reverberates from china to the rest of the fed. had lastear what we year. you have some concerns about china and the nonperforming loan market and you have a way to trade it. >> our chinese economists have done a very detailed report showing that the total amount of to beforming loans are expected over the next few years that could amount to 8 trillion yuan. trillion.ughly $1 about 60% of the commercial bank's capital. roughly 50% of the fiscal revenue. there is a huge amount of work to be done by the chinese government and banks to restructure their portfolio and loans. the way to play it is, ultimately buying options on the index which is bank heavy. you can finance that with the s&p for example or simply the spreads on the dollar cnh. recently it has been out a decent amount of stability but we ultimately see the weakening being inevitable. anna: at the looking at the comments from prime minister abe. in the early hours he was saying, we need to switch up gears on abenomics to escape deflation. you done some work on how strong theyen has to get against dollar to prompt another wave of action from policymakers. what is your policy like? >> in terms of the currency, we we see that- probability increasing if we go below 100. the boj is expanding its monetary base by ¥80 trillion per year and this is a huge amount of monetary easing. despite all of this, the trade indicators have not gone anywhere. this is through volatility swaps on dollar yen and financing it against the dollar korea. thank you for joining us. kokou agbo-bloua. consequences for britain, europe, and the rest of the world. former secretary to the treasury. anna: these pictures coming to us from bloomberg. governor of the reserve bank of injury -- of india giving his rates. cannot that the r.b.i. rule out brexit as a source of volatility. there could be possible turmoil in market on any future. he also said earlier on that he could not say any more on continuing as governor. that is a question of whether he would be after september. bit of an update on what we heard from the r.b.i. this morning. >> samsung is continue it -- considering introducing new smart phone featuring bendable screens, including a version that folds in half. the devices which would use organic light emitting diodes could be unveiled as early as next year and that is likely to give the company a head start. general motors is bullish on china. said despite jitters around the second largest economy, she sees huge potential. she spoke exclusively to david west. china is more volatile than it has been, we still see tremendous growth between now and 2020. we have over 60 new models between now and then and in a typical emerging-market it will be a bit more volatile but there will be tremendous growth opportunity there. >> pine river capital management is closing its $1.6 billion fixed income hedge fund. the manager said he was stepping away from managing money. they announced the fund would be liquidated and cash would be returned to the clients. beenlayboy mansion has bought for more than $100 million. the buyer is the 32 euros and of the billionaire who ons the property next door. he has agreed to let hugh hefner continue to live at the mansion. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: he seems like a very understanding landlord. the u.k. business secretary has warned that leaving the european union could cost british businesses 34.4 billion pounds in nontariff barriers to trade. the claim was made in a letter cosigned with the former business secretary peter mandelson. meanwhile they have dismissed the statements and accused him of using random numbers to back david cameron's campaign to remain in the block. another voice, delhi -- danny alexander. thank you so much. i know you're speaking to us in your former capacity chief secretary. i want to take you back to that time at the treasury. he said it was his time at the treasury that convinced him that the u.k. would be better off being outside the eu than in it. why do you come out with a different conclusion? >> i had a very particular experience with the erm. treasury convince me -- though it is something i believe for a long time before i went to the treasury that from the perspective of britain's national economic interests, working with our partners closely is something that helps create jobs and bring inward investment into the u.k. and makes it the open and trading nation that we are. was just hearing you talk about what was said earlier today. i haven't seen the report but the basic notion that being in the eu reduces barriers to trade and reduces nontariff barriers because we have common regulations. doesn't put up barriers outside the eu because those who want to leave say, we could leave but it would cost us more money to sell into the rest of the eu, but we would be free to trade with the outside world. >> it does not create barriers to trade at all. when you talk to people in other parts of the world, they see britain's place in the eu. it's something which is attractive about living in the united kingdom. manus: in terms of what we look at over the next three weeks, it is all to play for and it comes down to sovereignty and immigration in terms of two of the most banner headlines. it is a campaign driven by fear and therefore, there's going to be a backlash and that's possibly what's coming through in the polls. your site has utterly patronized the british people. >> i've seen the polls and a have not been part of the debate for the past few months. important -- very if it's a benefit in europe which is what we were just talking about but also the risk of leaving. you're right that the opinion polls look tight. viewersere and your ought to brace themselves for the fact that perhaps what they have considered unthinkable looks like a significant possibility. i still think in the end that most people in the u.k. will say that being part of the eu is something that has brought a lot of benefits to us over the years and if you like looking forward, countries working together is the right way to try to solve international problems. just because we say stop the world because i want to get off, it does not mean the world the stop. >> if we do see a vote to leave the european union on june 23, will all the things that come from that be clear? for example there was a conversation yesterday about whether a vote for brexit means voting to leave the single market. the supra mode to leave say that it does but they will not be in a position to do the negotiating after a vote for brexit. how much should the house of commons -- they have to be bound by the will of the people, but there will be a lot of details to be ironed out. >> those choices are not in our hands. when the striking things i think about the debate so far. the cannot specify in any detail what they specify it will be like. some of them say we should be in the single market. they say we should be away from it all and we should negotiate bilaterally with other countries. between three and 10 years depending a different estimates. that's what the government was referring to earlier, not just the u.k. and europe but the whole world economy. >> danny alexander, the former u.k. secretary to the treasury. manus. we are hearing the reports of an explosion in downtown istanbul. cnn says up to five people have been injured with more details to come. every market set for a higher opening. okay, ready? whoa! [ explosion ] nothing should get in the way of the things you love. ♪ get america's fastest internet. only from xfinity. we're counting you down to the european open. i am guy johnson alongside matt miller. this is what we are watching this tuesday morning. is september the new july? janet yellen's cautious comments pushed the market to price in an autumn hike. shell synergy. the energy giant braces savings on bg