A very warm welcome to the program. This is live from london. 6 00 in the morning here in london. Let us put the First Quarter into context. We will continue to do that throughout todays programming of course, as we started the last day of the trading quarter. And with that in mind, here is a countrythe mcsi all coming through here in the white. You see the bounce at the middle of the quarter mark. And this would be circled here, this is the fed statement that two from four previously. That gave the equity market rally a bit of a boost. In the blue, the dollar index. You see the contrast or the way that these two Asset Classes are moving in the same direction, going up as the same time the dollar is coming down. He talked about this yesterday, after what janet yellen was saying. And we had another fed official overnight giving us kind of dovish rhetoric, the same kind of signals from Charles Evans. Talking about how the fed will be tolerant of inflation, above target for a brief period. Much to come from that, but lets have a quick look at the radar. The risk of radar, how are Asset Classes performing at this stage of the trading day . In theoned the weakness dollar, we actually have a little bit of a rebound taking place just overnight, up by 1 10 of 1 . Of asiapacific up by 2 10 1 , as the global balance were seeing an equity markets seems to be continuing. Oil down by 1. 4 , down for the fifth time in six days. And increasing u. S. Stockpiles is the biggest driver here, a global glut in oil of course. Let us get the first word news. Good morning. Good morning. Fears that britain might vote to leave the European Union has helped keep Consumer Confidence at a low level. The sentiment state at zero in march, while a gauge of the expectations for the economic wasation over the next year at 12, down 18 points from a year ago. Plus am a black rocks plan to what may 400 jobs in be the biggest round of layoffs today at the worlds biggest money manager, according to people familiar with the matter. Black rockhe cuts, will continue to invest in key areas, expecting to end of the year with a higher headcount according to one person. Donald trump has come under fire for saying that there would have to be some form of punishment for women who have abortions. If the procedure were outlawed in the u. S. That immediately angered proabortion supporters, but trump later issued to statements verifying his, ultimately saying it would be the doctor or anyone else carrying out an abortion who should be held responsible. Private workers building a football stadium for the 2022 have been abused by employers. That is according to amnesty international, the londonbased Human Rights Group says it found evidence of forced labor, as well as workers being forced to live in squalid conditions. Officials say it is getting better. And the reports are out of date. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists and more than 115 use euros news bureaus. Anna thank you very much. Let us get to haidi lun with a quick check on what is happening in the asian market session. Again, saidt once talk of a dovish makers supporting global equities. Good morning. Haidi happy last day of the quarter. All of this read it you are seeing behind me kind of belies the rally we are having, the best. For these emerging market stocks in asia since 2009. Having said that, we have just seen that kind of midmorning afternoon session, the tide has turned a little bit. Investors are really looking ahead to the end of the week, which is a very big day the payrolls out of the u. S. We see a little bit of skittishness out of that. Afterglow of Janet Yellens comments, the name of the game Going Forward in terms of the rate hike trajectory. The strongest coming through from the aussie, up by 3 10 of 1 , brushing off that weakness in crude prices. We saw very strong buying in Oil Resources in some of the miners as well. Shanghai up for tenths of 1 . Hong kong has weakness coming through, they are actually poised to enter a bull market. They are up close to 20 from that february 12th low. And we are seeing strong gains in particular with commodities, stocks in particular, today. India also seeing gains of half percent. Taking you through some of the moves, it has been a very good day for Corporate News in this part of the world. Some of the big movers today, tokyo is up by 6 . But really the bigger story, it is the japanese owner of an Israeli Company that helped the u. S. Governor crack into that iphone that was used in the San Bernardino mass shooting. Neither company has come out to confirm this. The third party has been mistreated a way to get into that phone. That stock is up more than 40 since march 21 there. We are also seeing a bit of a downside to chinese lenders come as early continue to come out. The bank outofdate with earnings, little bit on the upside. One commercial big mover, and the hong kong section, the Parent Company has announced a plan to take that property private, down more than 50 since about nine months ago. Anna thank you very much. Haidi lun updating us from hong kong. Mario draghie now, will get another glimpse of the challenges he faces today with the release of inflation readings from spain, italy, and the eurozone as a whole. Prices in the regions are excited to fall for a second month in a row, ahead of the latest round of quantitative easing which kicks in tomorrow. That is a very different story across the pond, where Charles Evans said the u. S. Economy will probably be Strong Enough to justify two Interest Rate increases this year. As we said at the start of the program, a lot of the talk is about how much the u. S. Will tolerate above target inflation, even if we are not there quite yet. Let us bring in edmund shin g, he joins us today in the studio. Great to see you. Let us talk little bit about this divergent picture, just how divergent is it in fact for europe versus the u. S. . I have a chart here which shows the eurozone picture with regard to inflation. We have euro area inflation, and in blue we have the euro area core inflation. If you are generous, you could say it is trending up ever so slightly, still at only 1 . Statistically anomaly, it is flat. President mario draghi try to do by injecting liquidity into the economy by various different routes, we have him buying Corporate Credit as well as the usual government bonds, despite all of that, it is not moving. Right what does it tell you, we have no inflation in the eurozone. We are not going to have any in the eurozone anytime soon. Because we have a massive output. We have too many unemployed people. That is the bottom line. The u. S. Is a complete different story, where they do not have so many unemployed people. Recoveryot have a that has been faster since 2009. We have more to catch up. Anna the classic relationship between china labor markets and inflation at play here, not the extent of Deflationary Forces coming through from china. Edmund exactly. A come back to economics 101, classical economics. Economists love that, it still works. Lower unemployment eventually picks up because wages pick up. That is what we see in the u. S. What we definitely do not see in the eurozone. Anna something to do about that in the eurozone, as mario draghi need to do more . Order european governments need to heed the messages that he himself is giving now. There are many economists that are saying there is a limit to what central bank can do. Abdomen i would completely agree with that last remark. Mario draghi has pulled out all the stops. What else could he do . He is not quite out of ammunition. But there are not many bullets left. It is absolutely true that Monetary Policy is the same as fiscal policy. You can put on a classical keynesian way. That has not happened so far. It has happened to a limited extent, germany have to spend on immigrants. Refugees, they will be spending quite a lot of money. Italy has to loosen the Purse Strings come a spent the money as well. They will limit the amount of government spending, fiscal injection coming this year. Is it enough to get it up . Not so sure. Anna do you see increased investments in it is f infrastructure . You keep rolling your eyes. Edmund we have no official view on brexit. But i live in france. There you go. That is my personal opinion. I like france, europe. When we talk about the European Union, everything does seem to take forever and a day to happen. The European Union is sitting on a lot of money that they could ingest into the infrastructure spending. I have yet to see the money being spent and some sort of actual result. When i see that, i will get excited. Anna what are you expecting mario draghi and the team to do . We have quantitative easing coming in tomorrow, but the corporate bond, is that the extent of it . Do we reach further . That we want not to see the effects of all of these measures he is putting in place now. We have to give him some time to see it work, he will probably go again later this year. And inject even more money into the economy to try to lift it up higher. In the meantime, i think the eurozone economy will be ok. It will be boring, not grow very fast. But it will be fine. The concern is the u. S. Economy, or inflation is clearly rising. The fed will tolerate it at least temporarily. But at the same time, the consumer seems to be slowing. That has been the engine up to now great if they are slowing, what is going to hold the u. S. Up . Anna you sound like someone quite disparaging. What your view on the Global Economy is fairly positive right now. Edmund it is fine. I am not a huge china bear. But you pointed out the dollar index. I think it is very important. We are seeing i think a huge shift in the dollar. And my colleagues was certainly be very insistent on that point, llat we had a massive balu market. We have seen a trend change. The dollar is now weakening. And actually, this has a lot of implications in the longterm for the commodity asset class. We have not seen gold and oil moving. Maybe well see a bigger move up ahead. Anna we will about that in the next conversation, next part. Edmund, thank you. He stayed with us. Here are some highlights for your day ahead. We are going to get a slew of inflation data from europe this morning. Starting with france at 7 45 u. K. Time. Gdp 35unemployment, and minutes later. We will round off the inflation data from the complete eurozone at 10 00 this morning. In the afternoon, we get u. S. Initial jobless claims ahead of the big run for the week that is tomorrows payroll. Up next, all that glitters is not necessarily gold. We will take a look at the best and worst performers when it comes to commodities, looking back over the last quarter. Some contacts, the relationship between commodities and the fx. Tdown. Th coun anna welcome back. A gloomy looking hong kong this morning, this afternoon i should say. 6 16 in the morning. Let us get the Bloomberg Business flash. Thank you so much. Blackrock is planning to cut about 400 jobs in what may be the biggest round of layoffs today at the Worlds Largest money manager. That is according to people with knowledge of the matter. They are equal to about 3 of 13,000 employees. Blackrock will continue to invest and hire in key areas, ending the year with a higher headcount according to one person. The ceo of barclays japan is to resign in june. Who broke executive the news to employees in january that the bank will close its cast equity operation in japan and focus on a riveters. Derivatives. It will leave andrew jones as the sole ceo of the asiapacific region. Mark mobius is stepping down from daytoday management. Stephen dover will become chief Investment Officer of the group. And take over some of his responsibility on april 15. Will remain chairman of the business. We have the emerging markets group. Then we have a local Asset Management group. And many of the countries in emerging markets, what we are doing now is combining them. Bringing them into one big group so we can use the resources more effectively. And i am sort of moving up to sort of an overseer role, to do more pr, like we are doing now. Prime minister David Cameron is to chair talks later on the prospects of huge job losses in the industry, as the decision to offload assets after losses and writedowns have left the division i on the zero value. Steel prices are the lowest in a decade, meaning they are struggling to find a buyer. In the industry, given the oil capacity issue, given how what is happening across waters, there is a kind of an existential crisis. And there are countries with open borders, which are more vulnerable to some of this. And that is your Bloomberg Business flash. anna thank you very much. Theme,inue with a metals tumultuous quarter for copper. When testing seen the longest losing streak since january. The price of gold has strengthened. Let us bring in kenneth hoffman. Very good morning to you. Edmund is still in the studio. Ken, to you. Contrast the fortunes of copper and gold this morning. That tell us anything insightful . In my lifehave never seen a quarter like this in almost 30 years. You saw daily moves in stocks at 5 become commonplace. The market is very confused about what is going on in china. Now gold has been the big star. T in the a lot of tumul world, the fed going from four to maybe two times. Some people think they will not raise it all. Backandforth on goal. China. It all depends on the world came into 2016 to shorting all of the metals. It is the end of the world. And then all of a sudden, you saw a little bit of buying out of china. Everything took off. It has been a really, really crazy year. Of those quarters where when you look at the overall changes, they hide all kind of stories that happened within that period of three months. I have a gold price chart here that shows you year to date. This is just after the year, all feeling nervous, stock markets reflecting that. Many asset lasses reflected that. We saw safe haven buying in gold. But when equity market starting to recover, people feeling are confident, golden not selloff pretty great. If that were you . Ken if you were to put up the chinese yuan, it would almost looked the same. The world is really betting on china. If you think that china is going to be week, you will see the currency the week. That is when gold does really well. Copper is sort of the converse of gold. And when you see the chinese come out and say, wait a minute, i know we spent 1 trillion defending the currency, we will keep it where it is. All of a sudden, the world is like the yuan, strengthening. And when copper flatline, gold to call. Where will the yuan be year from now . If you think it is when to be seven and a half to the dollar, you will be very long. If you think the chinese are accurate saying the currency will be where it is today a year from now, when you are very bullish on copper. Not so bullish on gold. , the bets on china really come the linchpin of peoples expectation around the sector. Is right. Think that if you are at with that chart in euros, it would not look so exciting. I think this is the mirror image of what we said about the dollar. The dollar has weakened, and gold price goes up. Why . Dollarsodity price in will benefit from the fact that the dollar is weaker. When you put those commodities and other currencies, suddenly the picture that look quite so rosy. The what i would say is let us just pulled back. Yearve been in a 45 bear market. Goldommodities let us say, is finally turning around. I think that tells you that 100 e do not really believe the current rally. That is what we see from our investors. They dont really believe it. 500, itk at the s p does not break sustainably above 2100. It is capped. People are thinking the world is not so great. Risk assets have rebounded of it. We dont really believe that is durable. And we want to keep the money say somewhere. Anna there is dollar affect but also some nervousness about the outlook. Ken the number one thing you are hearing is that this is the bottom of the market, or is this is a bold move in a longterm bear market . And that is a number one question. But for investor, you see glencore up 70 . The moves within the market have been unbelievable. Gold has doubled. But yet you have a stock pickers market where they have not really move that much. Really, a very interesting market. Stock pickers, you really want to be in the right stock at the right time. Because the divergence between ers has been astronomical. Anna we will talk about some of the Strong Performance in the mining stocks in the First Quarter. We talk first about what the chinese are warehousing, what theyre doing with the copper stores. Bring us uptodate on that story. How much is that influencing . We do know that the chinese, because of the close currency system, they have used commodity as a way to take advantage of very high Interest Rates in china and low outside of china. We actually put together an analysis this week to figure out how much. We call it the copper bank. And we think the bank has 15 Million Metric Tons of copper sitting there, through tens if thousands ofof small or users who are taking advantage of the local banks. That is a yearz supply. This is not real demand. It is not as if it is being made into pipes and wires. Ng in various warehouses in china. The could add to the copper bank if the currency strengthens, they could take it out if we see it weaken. Anna a downgrade on copper prices . Ken where are you on the yuan . It is going to stay where it is, and the government says they will keep it there, they may have 8 million tons this year. Which is very bullish. But conversely, it could be very bearish. Anna often in the same conversation we talk about the oil price, do you think we have seen a fall in oil prices . Looking ahead to what we see ira