leaders back the campaign for a brexit. he thinks britain should stay within the european union. welcome to countdown. i am manus cranny. i hope your pad a good easter break and you are ready to tackle the markets. the dollar -- is the rally going to last? that is the question we will posture over the next bit. this is the bloomberg dollar index. a rising street. six days rising. can we plug-in a seventh. .e are on the cops -- the cusp the dollar rally stutters. we will wait to see what janet yellen has to say. will she stepped back from the hawkish voices we have heard rising over the last you days. is personal consumption used. the probability of a rate hike for june. for june. 38%. that is down from 42% despite all of the hawkish voices that came through the markets yesterday. let us take a look at the commodities. barclays brings the warning bell on the markets. they warned commodities may slump as we rush to the exit. is that youg story have seen the most aggressive inuction in short positions the past 10 years. that is what has driven the rally. , $39.15. the rush for the exit. to materials are vulnerable a wave of investor liquidation. oil is down for the fourth day. gold dropped to the lowest level in a month. dollar-yen. this is where perhaps the biggest focus will be in the next move. the dollar gaining for the eighth day against the yen. having a news conference. a lot of speculation that he may go for another kind of fiscal stimulus. speed withyou up to the bloomberg news. good morning. dropped itshas privacy case against apple after successfully hacking into the iphone used by one of the san bernardino terrace. the justice department says it unlocked the phone with the help of an unnamed party. apple says the court case should never have been brought. police have shot a man after he pulled the weapon at the u.s. capitol checkpoint. officials have identified -- have identified him as larry dotson. he was previously known to police. in october, he was arrested. he has been taken to a local -- hospital where police say he is in stable condition. pakistan's prime minister has radical eradicate ideology from his country. a suicide bomber killed 70 people at a park in lahore. the war must be taken to the door of the terrorists. fire has in gold two high-rise tower apartments in dubai. it is not known if anyone is injured or trapped inside. to many is home commuters who work in dubai. the uae has seen a string of high-rise apartments. -- high-rise fires. emanatingy is still weakness. the report says corporate revenue growth has steady but capital expenditure and job creation have followed. sluggishy also shows demand in china highlighting that three years of monetary stimulus has yet to convince companies to borrow. the indian prime minister has given a strong defense of his country's economic performance speaking at a bloomberg event in new delhi. the increase in loan moveh and a record level forward for investment. is one of the world's strongest risers. we have low inflation. a low balance of payment. and a high rate of growth. reason from good policy and not good fortune. >> global news, 24 hours a day. in more than 150 news bureaus across the world. let us get into the markets right now. dividend payday if you are holding stocks on the topics today. is.ertainly that is having quite an impact on the topics and the nikkei 225. down 13 point do to the fact that we have 1500 stocks trading. by half of 1%down kerry have a look at australia. it has just closed up 1.6%. resuming trade after the four-day easter break. in the red for a third day of losses. card inway also rising china, we are seeing stocks extend losses in the late afternoons session led a lot by the tech companies and the health care stocks. the technology and property tax -- property stocks i should be saying. especially in the property sector in hong kong, coming back online after the easter break. energy players also coming under pressure as we see crude oil pulling away from the $39 a barrel mark. is weighing market on the regional benchmark index. if you look at the index excluding japan it is actually faring a little bit better. the telcos there being seen as defensive as is utilities. the stocks we are watching in the region -- quite a few big movers. we are looking at data in japan. the biggest ever acquisition buying dell's i.t. business services for over $3 billion. casino is looking very strong in hong kong. of the most since early february. and in australia, and organic food company could be hit by one of these levees in china. ony are trying to crack down things being sent to china. rising a little bit after the central bank in china raised the yuan by close to a third of 1%. that is all due to the dollar weakness. manus: defending the yuan. thank you very much for rounding up. waking us up in europe after vacation. let us turn our attention to japan. retail sales slumped in february. more than doubled the contraction that was forecast. roseear on year sales rate 0.5%. almost missing forecast despite being helped by the leap year adding a shopping day. the weakening and the pressure puts more pressure on the government. stay tuned. the prime minister's press conference is at 10:20 a.m. london time. we bring you the latest news from that. let us bring in our guest host. global fx strategy at union credit. will have aabe press conference. some are speculating he will go for eight grandiose plan. he is running ahead to stand still. sure he am not entirely will give something really big. there is no question in my mind that fiscal stimulus is what japan needs right now. from a currency perspective, if he does go ahead with fiscal like the consumption tax hike, it will be yen positive. for a medium-term perspective, fiscal stimulus is what japan needs. from a short term perspective, the market will start reducing -- are left for more monetary policy stimulus. manus: this is one of the charts we have on the bloomberg first word. this takes you back to 1997. basicallyline, is when you have the sales tax hike in 1997. the black spikes. we also had 18 -- sales tax hike in the middle of 2014. what happens immediately afterward is aggressive reduction in the value and destruction in value of the yen. he would maintain -- does have the ability to do the next sales tax hike? guest: politically, it will be difficult. nonetheless, we are reaching a stage where everyone is recognizing that monetary policy has reached its limits. what you actually need right now is support from the fiscal fronts. as i said, it will be politically difficult but nonetheless this is what japan needs right now. the chart you are showing is pretty revealing. even if you look at the actual underlying economic data -- if you look at industrial production. 2014,7 as well as back in on a one year ahead basis finding the implementation of the tax hike would send the economy into a freefall. i find it difficult for him to go ahead with the plan. manus: are we at a precipitous moment globally of where fiscal levers have got to be unleashed? have we reached that point where monetary policy has reached its effectiveness? guest: absolutely. it is not an issue that monetary policy does not work because we do not know the counter factors of what would happen had it not been for monetary policy support. but there is a limit to what they can do by itself. to that extent, it is greatly thatling on a global scale you need some sort of fiscal stimulus. manus: one country which obviously has grasped that is canada. to a small amount in the relative stance. one of the few countries that has the ability to do that. and the discussion that the differential -- how would fiscal stimulus trickle-down to the currency trade? fiscalmay go to a more easing bias. that is turning it around. will this set up the differentials for 2016? so.t: i think there are a number of factors playing out. first of all, look at fundamentals. you mentioned canada. has been undervalued, sidedly for quite some time. as the markets start to understand and realizing that there is a lot of monetary policy stimulus down the road, and as fiscal stimulus is posted bring us back to more normalization, that is why you have such massive dropping in dollar-canadian dollar. manus: let us hold on. we have a lot more to get to. janet yellen speaking later today. barclays is the story on the terminal right now. stay with us. we will take you through some of those bigger subjects. this afternoon, we are watching for clues on the fed. what does janet yellen really think? tomorrow are the mortgage numbers. german inflation. inflationthe eurozone and german numbers. followed by u.s. jobless claims. that takes us into friday. don't call it a comeback. why barclays does not think the recent commodity rally is sustainable. more on that when we come back. ♪ manus: it is 6:18 a.m. in london. 1:18 p.m. lunchtime in hong kong. a rather clear day where the hang seng is trading. fairly unchanged on the day. let us see how the markets are shaping up for the rest of the day. the u.s. has dropped its privacy case against apple after successfully hacking into the iphone use by the san bernardino terrace. the justice department says it unlocked the phone with the help of an unnamed third party and without compromising any data. apple said the quirky should never have been brought. virgin america is said to everest he takeover offers from jetblue airways and alaska air. richard branson and his company percent.ompany of the discussion between virgin america and the hitters are ongoing and a deal could be announced as early as next week. stakes have been raised again in a battle for starwood hotels, the owner of shared it, weston, and w brands says it has improved -- it has received an improved offer from china's on bank insurance. -- the deal is valued at $40 million. marriott has spent 14 months are suing's darwin. is amongidn't get in 250 business leaders backing the push for the u.k. to lead the european -- leave the european union. contrast with in the bank's current management which warned it will send 1000 cap to paris from london if voters decide to leave the eu in the june referenda. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: commodities are in focus today including oil and copper and they are at risk of some steep decline. as recent advances are not grounded in improved fundamentals. that is if you are according to barclays which has warned that prices may tumble. the bank says copper may tumble to a $4000 market a metric ton while oil could fall back to as low as $30 a barrel. in our guest.ack the head of global fx strategy. barclays called this morning. part of the huge momentous rally we are seeing in oil -- it has been quite considerable. it is tied up with what is going on in the dollar and that shift lower in the dollar but the short covering rally, one of the most aggressive drops it in shorts. 60% over seven weeks. the rally onaying limited fundamentals. you take a slightly different view where we are on the commodity cycle. we are talking about a strong rally but let us put things in perspective. brent has followed by $60 or even $70 on a one and a half year. -- one and a half year period. is arcentage terms yes, it strong rally but in the scheme of things it is not that impressive. think that there has been a significant change in fundamentals. i think what usually the market does is it basically moves to extremes. the slowdown,ad the global slowdown and definitely we have the supply over collect which led to massive slashing prices. or $30 a barrel and my answer is no. in that sense, ice dill inc. the rally that we have seen -- in that sense, i still think the rally that we have seen initially. on the back of this, the commodity will remain strong. manus: outright dollar canada and outright aussie dollar and it hast exposures -- rallied maybe 16% so far this year. canada is up nightly 5% on the outright. sustain? if your point is that the rally will probably last in the weeks ahead and commodity prices are stabilizing. is there more mileage in those commodity-based currencies? guest: we need to differentiate. that is the element relates to the dollar but there is a differentiation. the fundamentals are really seatg over in the driver's right now carried as far as the loonie is concerned, it is correcting a massive undervaluation. there is a lot of mileage. estimates, dollars should be trading at about 100 -- $1.17. there is still plenty of correction to be made. -- they arewe trading close to fair value. from that perspective, rallies of 2% or 3% will not bother the central bank that much. i think i am mostly bullish on canada and quite bullish on the gnocchi. i see there again a sizable fundamental undervaluation. and i see an economy that has fared quite well given what is happened to rent prices. manus: the other two stories that we focus on a lot is what .ill happen with the ruble it has rallied quite considerably, the question is of course does that contain? thereve a central bank which is slightly more aggressive in its posturing. they don't really want to see the ruble appreciate that much more. guest: you're absolutely right in saying that and therefore you can make the statement about the pace of a appreciation slowing down from here. listen, when i think of wrubel, rublenk of -- of because i was not that fundamentally bearish about the world given the signals we were getting in january and february. i believe oil will go a bit higher from here. the flows of money back into emerging markets in january and february. in the area of $20 million. one of the largest shifts in a number of years. that has had concert once is in terms of the currency he is that momentum, i am thinking about that momentum sustain or is it all predicated on the dollar? guest: what happens to the dollar will definitely play a role. , firstly,her elements intolement of moving back emerging markets which will be slower compared to historical precedents. the market is aware that the fed will tighten. whether it will tighten by one time or two times this year -- it will play a role but it will not affect the direction. it will affect the speed of the reversal. will be, i think there plenty of differentiation across emerging markets. the political and idiosyncratic issues will play out. a placeple, turkey is you have uncertainty about the central bank independence. you have a lot of political risks. it is difficult to see a big reversal inflows into turkey. manus: let us draw a line there. we have a lot more to get to. it is all about peace. -- pace. we will talk about the u.s. economy and the greenback in the growth it will take. ♪ show me movies with explosions. show me more like this. show me "previously watched." what's recommended for me. x1 makes it easy to find what blows you away. call or go onliand switch to x1. only with xfinity. great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. manus: 6:30 a.m. this tuesday morning in london. 7:30 a.m. in brussels. the u.s. has dropped its privacy case against apple after successfully hacking into the iphone used by one of the san bernardino terrace. the justice department says it unlocked the phone with an third party without compromising any data. apple says the court case should not have been brought. police have shot a man after he pulled the weapon and the u.s. capitol checkpoint. officials have identified him as larry dawson of tennessee. he was previously known to police the last october arrested him for disrupting house proceedings and yelling he was a prophet of god. he has been taken to a local hospital. he is in stable but critical condition. pakistan's prime minister has about to eradicate radical ideology from his country. after a suicide bomber killed more than heavy people including many women and children at a park in lahore. warorities must take this to the doors of terrorists before they are able to hit our innocent countrymen. two high-rise apartment towers in dubai. it is not known if anyone is injured or trapped inside. the city is home to many commuters who work in dubai. has seen a string of high-rise fires including one new year's eve. survey showsina the economy is still emanating weakness. corporate revenue growth has readied but capital expenditure and job creation have followed. the survey also shows sluggish thatdemand highlighting three years of monetary stimulus has yet to convince companies to borrow. india's prime minister has given a strong defense of his country's economic performance. speaking at a bloomberg event in new delhi. a pickup in loan growth and a record level of foreign direct investment. india is one of the world economies'brightest spots. we have low inflation. a low balance of payments. and a high rate of growth. reason for success. good policy, not good for tim. goodobal news -- not fortune. onyou can find more stories bloomberg.com. manus: let us get up to speed now with the markets. we are talking about oil. we are talking about yellen. what are you focusing on? nejra: we are starting with the dollar. bloomberg index is unchanged. it has come off its rally. six days of gains. it came off that yesterday. meanwhile, the yen on its eighth day of declines versus the dollar. moving in tandem with japanese stocks today which doesn't usually happen. i have shown you this chart to show you some more context. i have normalized it so you could see the diverges from 100. the yen is headed to its best quarter in six years. japanese stocks have dropped. down about 3% this quarter. that is what this chart shows. elsewhere, looking at asian stocks dropping for the first time in three days. we are seeing losses in china and japan. i know you like a bit of good news. global equities are heading to their first monthly gain this year. manus: let us talk about commodities. declines inday of the oil market. we waiting to see these numbers. nejra: that data is due wednesday. weekly data we get from the u.s. -- increasing crude stockpiles. that would be a seventh weekly gain keeping supplies at their highest since 1930. the chart shows the stockpiles versus the8th march price up wti. brent is down for a fourth day and wti down for a fifth. you can see the fundamentals driving those moves. manus: let us talk about volatility specifically in the u.s. treasury market potentially on the way. $15.3 trillion market. let us bring in guy johnson. we have this chart here. you sent to me. talking about the changing complexion in the ownership of the u.s. treasury market and the consequences it might have in terms of volatility. guy: the market cannot make up its mind as to whether the fed will go one way or the other. we will find out later from yellen. we went pocket and then dovish -- hawkish and then dovish. funds being net sellers. the fed does not break this out exactly but this is the best proxy we have for this grouping. a sharp rise. the long-term chart back to 2001. at a difficult phase. we are trying to understand the fed. the market is potentially getting more leverage and i would argue getting ready for a bigger swing. the fed has something else it has to think about. how does it manage the process as it moves forward? as there is the potential for more volatility come life could get quite interesting. manus: there are a number of ramik -- ramifications. volatility. to think aboutds this if it were to raise rates. if we flip it around to the fx prism. how do you look at this risk? yes: in terms of volatility i would agree. guest: in terms of volatility i would agree. wants tohink the fed instill more volatility into the market. they want to maintain prudence. it all depends on inflation rating. -- irms of the fx market think there is some element of volatility but let us not forget that fixed income flows are largely currency hedged. the volatility between bonds and different. so you would like to ensure that you are getting what you want from the fixed income market and not the currency fluctuation. manus: let us see what that additional speech brings us today. j -- janet yellen is due later today in new york. forill be scrutinizing her what to expect. of the run ofhead u.s. data expected later today. inflation data is expected later this week. those couple of trains of thought. we were just finishing our conversation about potential volatility to come in the treasury market. when you look at the dollar market, we have had a running winning streak on the dollar. we have had a host of voices. we are getting more hawkish. fed cannot do a hike according to a story i read it -- until the market has priced it in itself. it cannot run the risk. j unless the market has a ready accepted that. that is dying from 40% last week. there is a difference between the voices of the fed and what the market is willing to accept. guest: you can see the disconnect even between the dots and what the car -- what the market is currently pricing. in terms of the foreign exchange market, it is important to pay attention to what has happened and what has led the dollar to be as high as it is right now. initially, there was a fundamental move. backrp rise in u.s. yield in the second half of 2014. after that, in the first half of 2015, the market went into a frenzy mode of loss -- dollar loss. a major and coplin -- uncoupling. this is a point i keep getting back to. two times, fed hikes even if it moves more aggressively than the market expects, the only thing that will expect -- really think that will happen is the slowdown of the pace of correction because the dollar is overvalued. manus: john williams from san francisco morning again about the global ramifications in brazil and china. -- theys be a train will try to use this language from holding back from having us a clear view? guest: in terms of the global slowdown? for sure. they have tried to do that in the past. needs to bestance extremely cautious. from that perspective, they would like to see some accumulation of alcide surprises in the price front, wage growth included in order to pull the trigger and pull it more aggressively. manus: that has been hard to come by. expense wassumption disappointing. i am fascinated by your notes. inflation data. in europe. there are many voices out there calling for parity but more like $1.15. more q we starting on friday. you would actually need to see another 26% of european gdp slapped on top of that before you can begin to think about demolishing the euro back to parity. guest: we should not be coming up with numbers. nice round number. the question is -- you have to look at history. historye the point that may not always be the best guide for the future. that is a fair point. but we need to look back. when we do our empirical research what we find is the way was the euro behaved initially a response to the ecb's qe announcement. what then, there was a frenzy of sorts -- of shorts which was correlated with activity. withave to uncouple things equilibrium. for thealue estimate euro is $1.20. the ecb managed to bring the euro with quantitative easing lower than that. should it bring it lower then $1.10? from a fundamental perspective, i think not. is being corrected. given the size and the empirical research we have done of qe, the euro-dollar should be trading close to $1.15 right now. manus: hold that thought. the u.s. has dropped its privacy case against apple. after successfully hacking into the iphone used by one of the san bernardino terrorists. --unlocked the phone with an with the help of an unnamed third party without compromising any data. ory: the u.s. government withdrew its case against apple. government in a fight in the courts to try to have apple developed software to get into the phone. apple said it would take many weeks. it was possible but it would weaken the security. many other companies including microsoft and google lined up behind apple. if the government was successful in its efforts, it would weaken security across all devices. andu.s. government came out the justice department was pleading. the government is now withdrawing its case completely. see this iner may court another day but as far as this matter is concerned, it is completely withdrawn because the u.s. government has had success in cracking the phone without the help of apple. apple has released a statement saying -- from the beginning, we objected to the fbi's demand that apple build a backdoor into the iphone because we believe it was wrong and would set a dangerous precedent. this case should never have been brought. now toturn our attention ukraine and a billionaire living in austria says he wants to end his self-imposed exile and returned to his home country. he is fighting extradition to the united states where he is wanted on bribery charges. at home, he has been threatened. ryan chilcote has an exclusive interview. >> [speaking foreign language] manus: ryan joins us on set. just listening to that, he has posted his bail. is he an aspirant for power because that is what comes to mind sometimes with these billion harris. we are waiting to see what happens in the parliament today. set up the landscape for us. the ukrainian parliament is convening to try to form a new government. for have political gridlock many months. they have not had the reforms that the imf wants and that has led to a cessation of the funding from the multilateral organizations involved in the bailout for the ukraine. involves the current ukrainian prime minister loathes remaining entire and the current finance minister seeing her power standing. we have talked to her many times. she would become an economic czar she would pick up the economy ministry as well. he doesn't like her either. deal withe did a bad the restructuring of ukrainian bonds and gave foreign investor is way too good of a deal with that restructuring. inus: remember the interview did with her at the time. she defended herself admirably in terms of that saying what would be the alternatives. is there any person in this country that he likes? of associatea sort with a man. many see him as pro-russian and antique the current government. will he go into politics? maybe not directly. he says if you are in business and you don't deal with politics, politics deals with you which i find to be an interesting quote. it iseople would say indicative of a problem with ukrainian politics. that they are trying to get rid of. there is too much influence from big billionaires or oligarchs although he certainly would not agree with that characterization. he is an interesting guy. he has to get through this extradition of fear. the united states is trying to get him extradited for a deal he did in india. he says they say he committed bribery in the process and he denies that. what you need to pay attention u.s. is doingthe this because it is politically motivated. they want to keep him out of the ukraine. one austrian judge has agreed with him and he was arrested just four days after the rainy and revolution. secondly, he is good friends and good business associates of some of president vladimir putin's inner circle. many people think that going after him was really an attempt to go after the inner circle and perhaps even the russian president himself to get some dirt on them. he says he provided no dirt to find out where the skeletons lie. confusing? manus: fascinating. i love billionaires that want power. ryan: he wants a voice. manus: howard. always great -- power. brexit and will talk the 250 business leaders adding their names to support the vote to leave the european union. that is up next. ♪ ands: the former hsbc boss 250 business leaders are backing the push for the year -- for tain to leave the european union. this is in contrast to the bank's current management. it has said it would send 1000 staff to paris from london if voters decide to leave the union in june in the referendum. the whole argument -- again, another weekend of press and polls. this time -- 250 voices advocating that it is time to reconsider our position in europe. i am wondering if we will run out of team regarding talking about sterling's weakness. what is your current position? how short is this market are ready? guest: i think it is quite short. no question. the problem is is it is too close to make a call regarding the outcome. polls from thehe scottish referendum and the u.k. elections -- they were completely wrong. the bottom line, from a fundamental perspective, sterling is significantly undervalued. --us: the bank of england constructed by the bank of england. guest: it gives you a snapshot of what is happening with sterling. manus: the momentum we have seen since late september. guest: that is right. together with all of that we have the reprising of the boe first rate hike in the referendum is compounding. referendum will stay in place. subject to some volatility until the third -- 23rd of june. from that perspective, sterling will trade weekly until that. then it is a binary outcome. you get a yes or a no. if there is a decision to remain within the eu the fundamentals will gradually take over and we will see a material stealing appreciation. no will be -- but a quite bearish on sterling. manus: how low could we go? imagineou could easily a drop. with mereat to have you for the first hour of countdown. more to come. ♪ manus: clashes. the u.s. government drops its case against apple after breaking into the iphone. the tech giant says the suits should have never been brought in the first place. don't call it a commodities come back. barclays does not think the rally is sustainable. back.its the prime minister defends his country's -- >> india is going to make success. it is the hard-won results of prudence, sound policy and effective management. manus: 250 business leaders are back. the campaign for a brexit -- who thinks britain should stay within the european union. ♪ manus: you are very welcome to "countdown." what do you make of markets? what will janet yellen guide us toward? dividends 20. that takes a shine -- dividends plenty. that takes the shine from the asian equities. london, paris all set for a fair value indicating higher. london up .7%. you are also seeing the dax indicating up over 1% now at the start of trading. got some frisky moves in the dollar. let's have a look at the longer-term dollar. the longest rally since january. what janet yellen says today is going to make a difference to where we go next. the market is shifting its view in terms of possibility of a june rate hike. 38%. barely increased in february. traders are stemming back on the probability. let's look at the risk radar. berkeley's, a grace -- barclays, a great story. the commodities rally that you have seen with the rush for the exit, raw materials are vulnerable+++ .25%. assets for etf's are backed by gold rise for the ninth day in a row. that is a reflection. the dollar hanging on in their -- hanging in there in terms of value. you have seen quite a move there. the longest streaks -- the longest streak since july 2014. a news conference later in the day. we will bring that live. let's bring you up to speed with kumutha ramanathan. kumutha: morning did u.s. has dropped its case against apple after successfully hacking into the iphone. the justice department says it unlocked the phone with the help of a third-party without compromising any data. apple says the court case should've never been brought. police are -- police shot a man after he pulled a weapon at u.s. capitol. officials have identified him as larry dawson of tennessee. they say he was -- last october arrested for disrupting house proceedings and yelling he was a prophet of god. he has been taken to a local hospital where police say he is in stable but critical condition. -- from hiser has country. after a telegram suicide bomber killed 70 people including many people -- including many women and children at a park in lahore. war to let's take this the door of terrorists. the irs -- high-rise apartment towers near dubai. hundreds of people manage to escape the blaze -- managed to escape the blaze. this is the home to many commuters that work in the by it --dubai.n the by the latest china beige book surveyed sows -- shows revenue growth has steadied. job creation has fallen to the survey shows sluggish low demand. monetary stimulus has yet to convince companies to borrow it indian prime minister handwrote modi --not handwrote mr. modi cited a pickup in growth, a surgeon corporate credit rating and a record level of direct investment. india is one of the world's economies brightest spots. inflation, a low balance [indiscernible] a high rate of growth. of goodthe result policy, not good fortune. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . manus. manus: let's get up to speed with the asian markets. juliette saly is standing by. juliette: the chinese -- juliette, the chinese are stabilizing. if you dividends for stockholders on the topics today. dividends aplenty. juliette: that is right to do things are better in the region -- that is right. things are better in the region. it is close down by .2%. most of the damage being done the fact that 1500 japanese stocks traded without rise. we are seeing a little bit of a comeback in the shanghai composite. it still has an hour to trade. there has been a pickup in korea, rising by .6% good that is the first when in four days. in four days.in the yuan and focus. -- the yuan in focus. it was an ugly day in australia. thesx 600 closing down -- asx 600 closing down. we are seeing some strength coming through the aussie dollar did the market in southeast asia doing better than what we have seen the likes of china and australia today. it is interesting if you take a japan from the regional benchmark index. the picture is not as dire as the benchmark index looks today. having without dividends an impact on the regional impact -- having impact on the regional benchmark. regional that's mark index excluding japan which is down by .4%. of thoseou some currencies that i was talking about, the yuan continuing to strengthen in korea. up by .1%. the aussie and the greenback also strengthening. currencies really strengthening as we see the dollar falls go -- the dollar fall. manus: juliette saly in hong kong. breaking news coming across the terminal now in regards to egypt . a flight from alexandria to cairo has been hijacked to do is according to a spokesperson. we understand that the flight -- we getto land in more detail, we will bring that to you. that is in egypt air flight from alexandria to cairo has been hijacked and requesting permission to land in cyprus. japan, we have had a rundown in terms of market. the data was disappointing here it -- disappointing. february, falling 3.2%. 0.5% ate, they rose also missing forecast, despite being helped by the leap years added shopping day. i base government and central-bank muted -- of a's government -- abe's government and central-bank. we will bring you the latest news flow. it's bring in our next guest, alexander that -- alexander dryden. great to have you with us. standard go good morning -- alexander: morning. manus: lots of speculation about what might come from that. perhaps more stimulus. perhaps delaying the sales tax hike. we are in a paradigm where the grabbing for more support. they are waiting for it and a general and rush. -- waiting for an adrenaline rush. alexander: that is what prompted the rally that we have seen in equity markets since the lows in the middle of february. manus: this causes my harris: to rise so much. to -- my my harris: haircoat to rise so much. alexander: the more -- the longer this goes on for, the more the central banks complete their arsenal. theave had 650 -- from global banks since lehman brothers. that's one every three trading days. that is -- there is only so long that can go on for it the central banks don't have that much fuel left. they have been driving this bus since the financial crisis. i am not sure how much further they can keep going. manus: is the monetary policy -- there would be people who would argue against that saying negative rates. that is another delusional of smoke. negative interest rates is a topsy-turvy world -- alexander: negative interest rates is a topsy-turvy world. i am not sure how long it can go. manus: surely it creates more equity bubbles. alexander: it doesn't just calls stocks, -- inank bank stock is, it causes trouble in the fixed income market. below zero.is that is a big problem for anyone who is an income investor. that instart including the program as well. manus: lifted back to the markets, here is the s&p. it hasn't seen a new high in 10 months. this is the longest streak of no new hikes since 1995. we are all equity investors, aren't we? vicariously or otherwise. whether it is in pension or directly. we are going to your from janet yellen today. a benevolent fed is what the market would like to hear and see it how many hikes have you penciled in for 2016? how dovish do you think she will be? retail -- we saw u.s. retail this morning. alexander: to interest rate hikes -- two interest rate hikes . one in june and one toward the end of the year. the two and destitute indicators -- the two indicators, correlation is starting to pick up. as a look at the world stocks, headline inflation should start to pick up as well good the 2 -- as well. the two drivers are starting to kick in the direction which should indicate we have a rate hike. the fed has put on the table the third agenda which is the markets need to be stable for it to raise interest rates to that is what -- interest rates. that's what stop them in september and march. -- that is what stopped them in september and march. manus: that volatility has returned aplenty. it is the emerging market phase. the benchmark has gained almost 10%. markets -- emerging it has the best month in four years. again, this is built on a view that you are going to see a slightly different pace from the fed. alexander: the two biggest headwinds -- manus: and money flowing into the emerging markets. alexander: the two biggest headwinds, natural resources and a strong u.s. dollar. both pressures are starting to ease. stabilization, you do not need commodities to skyrocket here it just a bit up -- skyrocket. just a bit of stabilization could help emerging markets. a huge story from barclays questioning the validity of the commodity rally. manus: a huge story from barclays questioning the validity of the commodity rally. theander: the reason being bear run and commodities has been going since february 2008. where closer to the and then we are to the beginning. -- to the end then we are at the beginning. manus: should stay or go? 250 business leaders come out in support of brexit. we speak to one ceo that thinks britain should stay in. we get the news from juergen maier. next. ♪ manus: it is 7:18 in london. let's return to our breaking news coming in across the bloomberg terminal. we have news that egypt airline flight from the desk from alexandria to cairo has been hijacked. -- from alexandria to cairo has been hijacked. to land thes want plane in cyprus. as we get more detail, we will bring it to you. come with a roman often is here. -- camus the roman often is here. -- the justice department says they unlocked the phone with the help of an unnamed heard party and without compromise any data. apple says the case should've never been brought. virgin america is said to have received takeover offers from jetblue airways and alaska air. put is after the carrier itself up for sale going to people familiar with the matter. discussions between virgin america and the two bidders are ongoing and a deal could be announced as early as next week. black rock has joined pimco and recommending bonds as costs are set to pick up. the strategists say stabilizing oil prices and a tight or labor market can contribute to rising u.s. inflation. pimco has been telling investors to expect an acceleration this year. that as fed officials -- also note that costs are picking up. boss iser hsbc box -- among business leaders backing the push for the u.k. to leave the european union. from 2006 too 2010. more -- it would take -- it will send 1000 staff to london if voters decide to leave the eu. that is a bloomberg's business flash. manus. manus: our next guest is one man who wants to see the u.k. stay. joining us for a chat is juergen maier. nice to have you with us. we are going to get deep and dirty in just a moment. you run a sizable business. a manufacturing business. --ant to get your take good i want to get your take. saidmen have come in and it is fairly tortured out there. give us your perspective as a manufacturer. where are we? -- juergen: we're living in an uncertain time. a slowing chinese economy. in the u.k., the issue of exit -- of brexit is something that is concerning. are pouring things back that index here it -- that index. manus: has brexit caused you to delay, re-think any major business decision between now and post june 24? 14th.n: we're building a we are not having a discussion at this moment in time about maybe building another one. if we were, i am pretty sure that we would be waiting until after the 23rd of june. issue to aburning signedceos, they have this voice to say leave. the campaign is really beginning to build momentum for the ceo over it hsbc -- over at hsbc. there's this view that it is good for you, you are huge. you are so huge that it matters more for you than it does for smaller business. eu -- this think the is big versus small. this is the argument that suits you. juergen: it is not big versus small. there has been these 250 people but there are thousands of businesses in the u.k. whichever credible survey you , it is small and it is large this is that overriding is is saying -- overridingly saying we want to remain in the eu. many of our customers are small companies. i have conversations. manus: wears this argument where the eu slather's red tape on small businesses? is that delusional? delusional is because this whole thought that we can live in a world of no regulation. nothing regulating the way we carry on our business, it is pie in the sky. if we are going to be trading with the world, the eu, which is most of our trade, 44% of our trade as most people know, then we have to have a regulation. it is a fantasy to think that you can live in a business without being regulated. manus: circle back. we have a little bit more. we have breaking coming in on this cyprus story -- egypt air story. excuse me. cyprus airport is closed. flights are being diverted. if you are traveling, this is going to play into anything you need to know. this is going back to the hijacked egypt air flight which was found -- flying from alexandria. that airport is now closed. flights are being diverted. this is according to a greek tv channel. as we get more concrete news flow, we will bring that to you. let's get back to the discussion. this trade agreement. if i hear canada is the roadmap for you guys in terms of what a trade agreement should be, it will be done, expedited quickly because it is antibodies -- because it is in everybody's interest. let me tell you something i have never heard them and more determined in my life to make ages-- it is going to take to have a trade agreement -- it is going to take ages to have a trade agreement. alexander: -- juergen: we have been in the u.k. for decades. is for 40 years we have been doing more business between the u.k. and eu. so it have created thousands of job in the u.k. -- thousands of jobs in u.k., and we would like to do more of that. looking at all of the other options, everybody has thought over this. i have thought over it. i have talked to a lot of people . there is no better model that huge us as usual -- as advantage. is that what we've got at the moment? got an: we've just conversation, talking about things. talking about things which are unachievable. it trade agreements that have not been -- trade agreements that have not been de in two years. doing trade and preventing migration from the eu which is not possible. the cornerstone of free trade -- conversations. manus: thank you so much for joining me. guy: welcome to "on the move." we are counting you down to the european open. i'm guy johnson alongside hans nichols. he is back in germany here here is what we are watching. the dollar, will yellen put the whole back in her cage which he speaks in new york guy: that is the question -- new york? that is the question. react?l the yen modi on the offensive. the prime minister hits back at critics