Welcome to countdown. Anna welcome to the program. It is 6 00 here in london this wednesday morning. Carlsberg reporting numbers this morning, and if i give you the organic net revenue number in the Fourth Quarter, that came in well above estimates rising by 5 . The estimate was 1. 8 . It is well on track, talking about further reduction in Financial Leverage in 2016. As the overall profitability of the business, excluding various items, also coming in above estimates at 1. 4 billion kroner. Fell, though, 4 . And that was a bigger fall than had been estimated, the estimate was for 2 . This is a business undergoing a big restructuring, cutting back jobs, closing various breweries after years of various declining profit. Russia has been the key focus, turmoil in ukraine, that has really taken a chunk out of the business. The ceo will be speaking to our colleagues on surveillance. A very specific time, the relatively new ceo at carlsberg will be joining us just after 10 00 here in london. Manus you can always have a heineken. And they are rewarding shareholders, raising the dividend for 2016 up 18 . Year,e whole of the profit, excluding items, came in at 2. 5 billion euros. That was in line with what the market had estimated. But when it comes to organic rose, 2015 revenue up by 3. 5 . Poin the dividend is up some 18 . this is what the market will keep an eye on. Slightly above 2 billion, the actual dividend is up of course. Mexico, vietnam, the u. S. And europe bolstering the numbers, versus the exposure to nigeria and russia. We want more beer. Anna but most of that was expected, i should say. Lets get away from the beer conversation, though we should tell you we will be interviewing the ceo of hyne heineken right here on countdown. Let a step away from beer, talk about the u. S. Today. A big day for the fed, janet yellen speaks today. And with that in mind, let us review how expectations around Interest Rates in the u. S. Have been scaled back over the last eight weeks. We have a chart here. Manus talk us through the dimensions, where we are. Anna that is eight weeks ago, meeting. Flattened out on the green line, just underneath. A lot of focus on what she says come how she walks the fine line between the domestic and international. Manus she might establish more confidence in terms of the ability to deliver what it was told the market would do. It is politics and central banks, donald trump and bernie in new and the polemic hampshire. Adding to the Bond Exposure, up from 22 . Let us check in on the equity markets, under pressure. Down again this morning. This is your risk on countdown. Anna part of the reason we are seeing that rout in the japanese market, it is never good for the exporters. Another day of down numbers. That has been the story of the japanese session, up from where we were around the negative rate announcement. Manus keep in mind the gold, a great piece on the bloomberg terminal on losing the magic. Keep an eye on both the yen and the euro. A huge piece on the bloomberg after sixan abandoned weeks, and it was a long dollar against the basket of euro and yen. Nobody is perfect. Anna nobody is. Let us get the bloomberg first word. Jra donald trump and Bernie Sanders have claimed victories in the New Hampshire primary. Sanders one easily over clinton, meaning the democrat could be added for a long and competitive cycle. Ump the Ohio Governor john kasich. Theman sachs have abandoned traits for the year, wrong on the dollar, versus the basket of euroyen. U. S. Inflation expectations and more, it underscores the volatility of the global market. Federal reserve chair janet yellen will testify before congress later, it will be her first public appearance since the fed raised Interest Rates in september. Investors will be scrutinizing her remarks to find if the bank will be scaling back for the recovery. Deutsche bank is considering buying back some of its bonds, over concerns that germanys biggest bank. To make payments on his riskiest debt. Meanwhile, the german finance minister said he is not worried about the lender. Do you have any concerns from Deutsche Bank . No, i dont have concerns on Deutsche Bank. Nejra global news 24 hours a day, powered by 150 music euro around the world. Manus thank you very much. Let us get to the asian markets. Shery ahn is standing by. A real compounding of yesterdays off day, run us through the Asian Session so far. Shery good morning, manus. Look at my map, just completely in the red. A little bit empty because we are seeing china, taiwan, korea celebrating the lunar year holiday. But the market did trade today, down. Headed for a consecutive day of losses, you did mention earlier extending the yen much higher. 2. 7 ,at gives stocks down on his worst twoday slump since that huge earthquake back in 2011. Australia in their territory now, down 1. 2 , the lowest level since july of 2013. And we saw singapore coming back from their Lunar New Year holiday to join the selloff. Very muchrse, today focused on Janet Yellens testimony before the u. S. Congress. Take a look at the yen. It strengthened all week, now trading at half a percent, pass that ¥150 level. The worry that this rally might jsually hurt the bo efforts to rally inflation, even after the negative deposit rates. Look at what that is doing to the banks in japan. I continue to fall. After more today, than 8 yesterday. Of course, negative rates threatening to squeeze the prophet. And today, some of the biggest decliners. Ddi, afterfirm, k reporting thirdquarter earnings of missed estimates. Back to you. Anna thank you, joining us from hong kong. Beer brand biggest reporting profits in line of estimates, organic net growth by 5 . That was much bigger than the estimate of 1. 8 . Joining us now to dig into these figures, duncan fox, from Bloomberg Intelligence. I will start with carlsberg, that was the set i was looking at some of the beer volume number rather the organic net revenue volume. Much better than estimated. But in the same quarter, beer volumes following more than estimated. Duncan russia is a key market for carlsberg. Price of the ruble has fallen a bit, and it has been pretty hideous through q4. I suspect pricing has gone up quite a lot during the quarter, but also volumes getting impacted by the same impact. Manus one of the biggest numbers, heineken, in terms of the top line for 2015, the dividend is up 18 . That i wash in reading through some of the notes costcutting needs to be more aggressive, relative that there appears more meat on the bone. It is a balancing act between the geography of mexico, vietnam, the u. S. And other exposure. Has a lotineken now more competition in those markets, some of the emerging markets. Consequently, the cost basis is that much higher. They are working on that, doing it quite sensibly. Taking it slowly and reinvesting, which is a central way of going about it. Ma story, mario draghi saying they have made no decision on the sab miller. Duncan we have to wait until the regulators say yes or no, we do not know the deal is completed. But now it will probably summer before we get anything on that. And it makes sense to be looking at that. Anna duncan, thank you very much. The pimm fox. Donald trump and Bernie Sanders have won the latest residential primaries in New Hampshire. Sanders easily beat his democratic rival, Hillary Clinton. Anna hans nichols joins us now with more. Good morning to you. What are these commanding victories for sanders and trump . What do they mean for the broader electoral picture . Side, itthe democratic means we clearly have a serious race on our hands that will go well into the next couple of months. On the republican side, it does not offer much clearly, other than the fact you had an electorate that is very angry, willing to support donald trump with more than 30 of the vote. Final tally, he will come in at 35 . Looking at the rest of the republican field, you have a bunch of candidates there that are bunched in third place at 12 . Chris christie could come in sixth. And marco rubio potentially in fifth. Jeb bush, are to see what his argument is for staying in. And you have ted cruz also doing well. The surprise on the night, aside from the margin of the trump and the sanders victory, the surprise of the night is really john kasich coming in at 60 . He is the governor of ohio. He offered a moderate message. Now, mr. Trump and his victory speech, he talked about mr. Sanders and the differences between the two candidates. Make sure to congratulate him. He seemed to relish a matchup in the general election. Donald trump i heard the end of bernies speech, some of the beginning. No, first of all, congratulations to bernie. In all fairness, we have to congratulate him. We may not like it. But i heard parts of his speech, he wants to give away our country, folks. He wants to give away we are not going to let it happen. Hans the question for the rest of the republicans that came in, what is their argument for going on . Chris christie is reassessing his campaign, he will be back in new jersey thinking of next steps. And john kasich him a heading to to a carolina, heading much more conservative side. He is talking about uplifting message, trying to heal the country. It is a remarkable contrast, in some ways, to mr. Trump, who came in first. Recapping a lot of anger. Manus where does this race go from here . This is almost like channeling hillarys last attempt. I mean, she graciously acknowledged sanders hitting the high notes here. More on the democratic campaign, versus the republican . What do you think . Hans on the democratic campaign, gets more diverse. The electorate looks a lot more white a lot you have more hispanics in nevada. Of african population in South Carolina. For the republican campaign, gets much more conservative. These are conservative states, which will make it harder for john kasich, more natural territory for ted cruz and for potentially donald trump tapping into workingclass discontent. One thing that is clear, sanders will have the resources to go on. He turned it a fundraiser last night. Senator Bernie Sanders i am going to hold a fundraiser right here, right now across america. [applause] is, please go to berniesanders. Com. Help us raise the money we need to take the fight to nevada, South Carolina, and the states on super tuesday. Manus, and 10 days, South Carolina will have the republicans. They will be voting for democrats in nevada. I will play assignment at her here. You get to go to nevada. Anna goes to South Carolina. I will sent in the anchor chair. I can only imagine the serious reporting you would do on the las vegas strip. Manus you just want to see the videos. Anna i think we need to send hans on assignment. He is getting far too chippy. One event we will be watching later on, janet yellen will deliver semiannual testimony before the house. Manus that kicks off at 3 p. M. In the u. K. Up next, not a strategy, that is ti. Essage from the head of ci joins us next. Waiting for higher prices . That is like waiting for godot. Emma welcome back. 19 minutes after 6 00. Let us get the Bloomberg Business flash. Hsbc is being sued by the families of those murdered by the bank of mexico, because it let cartels launder billions of dollars. It brings fresh fruit need to mexican activity of hsbc, which in 2012, theyd 1. 9 billion to resolve the criminal investigation. Just six weeks in, Goldman Sachs has abandoned five of six recommended top trades for the year. The bank was wrong on the dollar versus the euro and the yen, and yields on the italian bond, and more. They underscore volatility that has the set global markets. A fall in late trading, t, despite the success of the new star wars movie, and helped lift studio earnings to more than 1 billion. Net income was up 32 , with revenue rising by 14 . But earnings fell at espn as programming costs fell and subscribers fell. Manus thank you very much. The oil industry is gathering in londonand the good today for the start of International Petroleum week. Crude is down on the year. Thethere are warnings that worst is not over yet. Brian, you come every day with good news and bad news. Today, it is more doom and gloom. Ryan the party was like it was 1999. But the oil was snapping, the good news, the fordays treat happened overnight. Up now 2 on the day. For that, we saw the biggest fourday losing streak in more than a year down 13 . Two things you want to watch for today. One, u. S. Inventory. You find that on the bloomberg by typing in crud. One of my favorite functions. And at 2 30 on the bloomberg, you will see inventory at 5 million barrels. The expectation them according to a bloomberg survey, that they rose by just more than 3 million barrels. If they rise more than that, the suggestion is that the glut just continues. We can expect, quite likely, oil to fall on the back of that. The other chart you want to look at today, you can also see this by typing in ovx on the terminal, is the crude volatility index. You will see that things have been very volatile. In fact, crude has not been this volatile since 2009. So, 6 just a couple of bucks across a big blow. We could get there, given the volatility we have seen even today. Anna if i were in the oil industry, i would be partying like it was 1999. Thank you very much, ryan chilcote. Let us turn our attention to david wilson, director of metals and global strategy at citi. What is happening in the metal space . I like the title of your note, how much can you allege that the Mining Sector has a moment . David we are not really seeing enough adjustments in terms of what we have seen a significant slowdown in demand from august the the worlds biggest consumer, china. But we have seen some adjustments in some markets. Not really across the board. We dont seem to see m iners thinking it might be lower for longer. Mining men, really ranting that point home. The market in terms of strategy of just keep on producing. Anna and i have come up with this, a correlation between the yen. Take us through the rest of it. Anna in yellow, you have the declining yuan. And in white you have the chinese copper imports climbing. In your notes, david, we have actually seen chinese copper imports rising, when the currency was depreciating. That is not what people expect. What is that showing us . David copper is cheap. But also to the point is that chinese buyers are thinking it will continue to devalue. Why not buy now . Ms, you buy rnb ter ahead of that. The not anything relying underlying demand manus is that tied into the story . David again, it would make sense given where prices are. And we did say, obviously, the beginning of the year, the reserves bureau issued 150,000 tons, which is no doubt tightened that domestic market to some extent. We were buying in the first half of last year, as well. Interestingly, the surge in the imports we saw in the Fourth Quarter was incredibly strong at that 26 year on year. And we did not see that going into the bonded inventory, hardly moved through december. Through january, bonded inventory as fallen by about 40,000 tons or is this question about where that copper is going . It is a difficult one to answer, at the moment. Manus lets talk about the dividend, the progressive dividend policy has been moott. Theaw a script dividend on oil price, i thought that was interesting. You shaved the dividend there. Talk us through your story, and terms of dividends. What is safe, who is most at risk . David i tend to focus on the markets, rather than the company. It is an interesting issue i can skirt around, not go into detail. Manus let us go to the cause in terms of bullishness versus usual position, in terms of the sixmonth view. Report, a the citi bearish reading. Said theyday, they have no Commodity Exposure in the portfolios. David in the short to mediumterm term, downside, most of the big Metals Copper in particular we think we could see levels down to 4000, or slightly below come in the next 36 months or so. Looks very poor. We obviously sought move below 7000 i am sorry, 8000 earlier this week. You hearing any position, people. Building long positions . David interestingly, in china on the shanghai market, we did begin to see a lot of those funds that had the traditional major shorts. And everybody talks about china. Changing their positioning and moving on. Now, the question is, is there something there . ,r was there regulatory change investigations into shortselling . Anna david, thank you. At citi. Of metals manus 6 30 in london. Let us get the Bloomberg Business first word news. Nejra the antiestablishment candidate donald trump and Bernie Sanders have claimed victories in the New Hampshire primary. Sanders won easily over Hillary Clinton, meaning the democrat to be headed for a long a competitive fight. Trump, meanwhile, beat a crowded republican field with Ohio Governor john kasich in second place. Goldman sachs has abandoned five of its six recommended top trades for the year. The bank was wrong on the dollar, versus the basket of euroyen. Yields on italian bonds, u. S. Inflation expectations, and more. It underscores the volatility that has set global markets. Global return fund has boosted holdings of u. S. Related debt. Was after a rush after the security sent treasuries surging to the number one stock among the bond market. The u. S. Is attracting investors with 10 year yields of 1. 71 , compared to 1. 2 in japan and germany. Federal reserve chair janet yellen will testify before congress later. It will be her first public appearance since the fed raised Interest Rates in december. Investors will be scrutinizing remarks to find whether the central bank will continue pulling back in support for the economic recovery. Anna . Anna thank you very much. Let us check in on how the market is