It is monday. The a warm welcome to program. China, big news over the weekend. The data for january and terms of Foreign Exchange reserves down by 99. 5 billion yuan. The Chinese Central Bank spending money to defend the currency. It was not as much of an outflow as feared. We have not even gotten into the year of the monkey yet. Manus it was not as bad as everybody thought. What we have is a little bit of a picture or our viewers in through this period 2014, 2015. Defending the yuan is the real story that comes through. We are seeing volatility rise. It is the Lunar New Year. We are seeing traders paying more premium for the u. S. The yuan to devalue going into this year. Janet yellen getting ready to speak. That is the big mark on the calendar. She speaks this week. Lets take a look at what has happened in the Foreign Exchange markets. The dollar got a bounce on friday. Holding onto those games on the dollar index. Above 97. Dollaryen, where are we at the moment . We are at 1204 on the won. Manus i love what jeffrey garlock says, which the dollar will fall into thousand 16. Guess what . The dollar actually dipped. That was last week. Breaking headlines from vtol vitol. Between 40 60 in the next 10 years. range. That is something for Central Banks all over the world and anyone worried about the inflation picture. Lets get the bloomberg first word news now. Good morning. Chinas for foreign currency reserves have fallen to a near fouryear low, 99. 5 billion in january, continuing a slow. It adds pressure on policymakers to strengthen the economy through fiscal easing and structural reforms. The ceo of vitol sees a decade of low oil prices. In an exclusive interview with bloomberg, ian taylor said prices will stay between 40 and 60 for 10 years. I think we need to imagine a band of 40 60. At 60, youve that thebring back on some of supply that will probably go out. Us, it is clear that a lot of the oil will produce a shutdown in the next year or so because it is simply too low of a price. Some of it could come back. And oilaudi arabia minister said he held successful talks with his venezuelan counterpart about ways of stabilizing the crude market. He did not reveal what producers should pay to shore up prices. The u. S. Parking a Ballistic Missile system on north koreas doorstep. It comes after north korea launched a longrange rocket over the weekend. The Denver Broncos have won super bowl 50. Von miller was named the games most valuable player. Cbs about 5aid million for a 32nd spot during spot during the broadcast. Markets are moving this morning. Looks like a bit of a riskon day. The aussie dollar rising. Caroline, take it away. Caroline lets dig into which markets are actually open as well. Looking for signs of Risk Appetite this morning. Where am i looking . I am looking in japan. We are starting to rise off of those initially bearish concerns. So many headwinds. North korea filer he firing that longrange rocket. That was a concern. So was the portrayed in japan. We have risen to the upward side. We are up 2. 2 on the topix. You are seeing a bit of Risk Appetite when it comes to the japanese stock market. It is all about the fx. We are seeing the yen that much lower. That is giving some giving support. Check out this correlation going back 12 months. I wanted to show this phenomenal chart. The topix gains, the yen weakens. You can see this correlation. It is just inverse. This has been the yen rallying. Nd the topix diving amazing correlation. I want to focus on what the fx market is doing to say today. As money is moving into equities, money is moving out of the yen. Japanese yen down by. 5 . All of those havens, the swiss franc, the euro, all down today. Instead, money into the aussie dollar, canadian dollar, the South African rand even. Commodities the most exposed. The yen, the euro, and the swiss franc dropping against the dollar. Why . A bit of a bounce in the dollar after the wage growth that we saw on friday. Could there still be room for a rate rise coming from the u. S. Later today . I will dig into the oil numbers later for you. For now, riskon when it comes to japan. Anna we are getting some news out of a platinum mining business. Manus net income at 107 million rand. They talk about the dividend. This is the critical issue in any of these mining companies. Considering further dividends. They talk about the market coming back into balance. That is going to be latched upon by the marketplace. Be there, talking to some prominent guests during programming. Some of these games that we are s, what about from amplat they are doing a capital globalture, Challenging Market conditions persisting. Manus the rhetoric has come through from everybody that we have spoken to. Anna lets talk about the chinese Foreign Exchange numbers. Robin joins us now. You are there holding the fort. Tell us what this latest data means. Robin three words. Depreciation depreciation, depreciation. If you are betting against the chinese currency, you are pretty much safe for the next few months. That thee careful numbers were lower than expected. The estimate was about 120 billion. Came in at 99. 5 billion. One must remember that these figures are for january, when the pboc stepped into the market. Nd really squeezed trading there was not much business happening. There was not much of a market at all. Almost 100, billion flowing out. That is more than the foreign Foreign Exchange reserves of many small countries. Talk to us about the implications for the pboc. We have had everything from the chinese. More verbal intervention, warning the marketplace they will not be defied, taking Interest Rates could 65 in hong kong. What does that do to the story . Robin these things are really complicating and robbing the pboc and the premier of options now. Do they support the economy . Do they focus on the currency . If they start supporting the economy, they have to allow the currency to decline a little bit. That, people are putting money into Foreign Investors and china. They do not want a further depreciation of the currency, so they are going to pull it out. The pboc is caught between a rock and a very hard place. There are very few options. It will be really interesting. After the Lunar New Year holiday, the pboc comes back, what it does. So far, a lot of liquidity in the market. It will be interesting to see what these guys do when they return. I think the depreciation for the currency is still intact. Manus thank you very much. Robin, our asian bonds editor. Are talking to the head of global Asset Allocation at ubs wealth management. Great to have you on the program this morning. What do you think the response is going to be from the chinese with regards to Foreign Exchange reserves . Are they going to continue spending at this rate . They could reach what the imf calls the line in the sand, 2. 6 billion of reserves by the summer. What does that mean to you . Lets hope they do not reach any lines in the sand. As we talk about this morning, some of the positive emotions in the markets are because numbers came out on the right side of expectations. People were nervous about this. The best that they can do is try someep a steady hand depreciation of the currency is priced into the market. Do not try to take that away, but do not let it accelerate, either. Manus what comes through is the term the returns for the yuan. When you look at the returns, this is over the asian basket of currency. The renminbi has fluctuated in the middle. It has not seen any dramatic move. They are achieving what they wanted, both verbally and with Interest Rate. Interest rates, 65 in hong kong. This is a central bank using a huge arsenal at its disposal. Mads it is using less than what we have seen from the west earlier. Some of us remember when they were at 500 . There was a situation in the u. K. Which did not go so well where it was even more. It is dramatic, but they also have quite substantial power. We are on the right track. It is a lot, but not as much as they had feared. If they go down from here, we could go into more stable territory. Manus anna this being the year of the monkey, your conclusion as to what the pboc might be up to. It sounds as you are not fearful of some sort of seismic shock coming from the chinese authorities. Mads i am absolutely fearful of it. That is one of the worst things we could imagine which could happen to the world this year. It. Ont expect it is understood by the markets. We had the situation last summer. We had the situation with the equities and the situation in autumn with the fx and in january with the fx and the exchange rates. It is a risk. Manus Asset Allocation. Last time you were with me, you said china was underweight and we were right. This is still the worstperforming index year to date. Are you still underweight . Do you think that is the correct position . How do you look at emerging market exposure and china . Mads lovely, we are underweight emerging market equities. We do not have any local currency. We also do not have any commodities in any portfolios. That is the way we look at that makes at the moment. Anna thank you very much for joining us. Mads stays with us. The u. S. , itow in is all about politics. New hampshire holds its first primary following the iowa caucuses. Anna the fed watch begins on wednesday. Janet yellen testifies on wednesday or thursday. Manus up next, low for longer. More from our exclusive interview with the ceo of the Worlds Energy trader and his expectations for a decade of low oil prices. Exciting, chris anna welcome back. This is countdown. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. Willglo americans ceo address investors, bankers, and the South African governments mining minister today. It will be his first appearance since unveiling an audacious overhaul in december. 70 of the companys value has been wiped out over the last year. And selling a stake of a Supermarket Company for 3. 1 billion. Accountingretailers was attacked for understating its debt. Volkswagen says it will publish annual results as soon as april and may hold the Shareholder Meeting in june. That is the latest schedule as the company determines the fallout from the diesel emissions scandal. Oil prices could stay low for as long as 10 years according to the Worlds Biggest Oil trader, speaking exclusively to Ryan Chilcote in a rare interview. Chineses says a slowing economy and u. S. Shale will act as a cap on any price rally. Still in a situation where we have too much supply. The balances do not like look like they are tightening up yet. I would not say for sure that prices have bottomed out. If you had to put your money on a number, the brent price at the end of the year would be what . 48. You can come back and kill me because i am sure i will be long. Ryan you do not see a sharp rebound in prices. Why not . I know that there are still some believers. We do not because there is so much stock buildup in the world. We believe it will take a long time to burn off that stock and that will happen over time. No one is going to wake up and see that there is no oil left. Ryan how long does it take to work through the stock and say, get back to 100 oil . I think it is a genuine question. There is so much more supply. We are being more efficient. The u. K. Consumption of oil is going down. Efficiency in cars is going up tremendously. You have to believe that it is a possibility that you will not necessarily go back above 100. I know i am very old and ugly and been in this business for far too long, but if you think of the last 4060 years, we have only been above 100 for only a few years. China has changed. Huge growth in those middle to 2000s was middle very dramatic. It happened at a time when we did not have as like shale. That growth has changed. Ryan you see the oil price at the end of the year at 48 a barrel. The year after that. Where do we move . Is there a band that you imagine . I do imagine a band and we band. Ly see a 40 60 we do believe that Something Like 60, you could bring back on some of the oil fields which will probably go out. U. S. Shale, a huge amount of discussion about that. I do not think the industry quite understands all the economics. For us, it is clear that a lot of the oil that will shut down in the next year or so because it will be simply too low of a price. Some of it could come back. That is very interesting. I dont think we understand it. But we see that possibly at about 5050 five dollars before it comes back on again. Band lasts until what . I could see the band lasting for 510 years. Anna lets bring in Ryan Chilcote, who is conducting the interview. Mads is still with us. We are a demanding bunch because he thinks oil prices will get to 48 on brent. We talk about that as not much of a rebound. That is more than 40 higher than we are right now. Ryan that is exactly right. In the shortterm, he thinks the price is going to improve. Though he does say, in general, it is a very bearish view compared to what we are hearing from the market in general, that we have not necessarily bottomed out. Over the next 510 years, we will be trading at a band of 40 60. Most in the oil industry are saying that in the second half of the year, we are going to get a recovery. They think we will be around 50 at the end of the year. Most of the big executives tell you that they see it going up from there. Them, 60, 70, 80. That is not the case, he says. I think this is a very bearish view. We have one of the biggest Oil Conferences in the world taking place this week. Tata will be there. Bp will be there. They have a more bullish view in the midto longterm. Manus you say that inventories is a critical thing that you keep an eye on. The world is drowning in oil. Everyone says that. Those excesses need to be worked off. There is growing concern about i am not going to say a recession, but people are concerned about the demand cycle. People are concerned about the demand cycle. There is what looks like a Global Manufacturing recession going on. As for the oil price, we maintain that we are not investing in oil or commodities at this level. We wait for the clearance to happen. Anna in your notes, you say that oil prices have never provoked a u. S. Recession, but cheaper crude costs are not yet providing the boosts that we thought it would do. Do we need to keep that in mind as we hang on every word that the oil Company Tells us . Mads and later this week, we hang on every number out of the retail report in the u. S. And what janet yellen says. We think it is coming, the boost from the oil price, but not the same as usually. Ryan what does what ian taylor is saying potentially mean for the Global Economy . Ors if we go back to 40 60 right away, we would be in a better place. Markets find it difficult to price that right away. Manus talk to us about Venezuelas Oil minister and his saudi arabia counterpart have made comments. Where are we in this relationship . The Venezuelan Oil minister met with the Saudi Arabian oil minister. They have been together in opec or years and said it was a very successful meeting. Does that mean there will be a supply cut and we will get opec teaming up with nonopec countries teaming up like we had 15 years ago . The answer is no, not necessarily. Those people are dismissive of the idea of russia, saudi arabia, and opec getting together or a cut. Ian taylor thought that it might be more likely than many people think. He still thinks it is a slim possibility, but he seems to think, and i think a lot of people out there are starting to wonder if the saudis are convinced that their strategy has been correct. Maybe some people in saudi arabia are starting to think this idea of flooding the market with oil and eventually get a price rebound, that is taking longer than we thought. We can do it, but it will cost us tens of millions of dollars of our reserves. So we get that shift in saudi policy. We might get a shift in the way opec views things as well. Anna funny how that could happen. Ryan chilcote joining us for that fascinating interview. Up next, it is the law of diminishing returns. How the bank of japans measures are you losing their effectiveness. We are live from tokyo next. The conference call. The ultimate arena for business. Hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. The only problem with Conference Calls eventually they have to end. Unless you have the comcast business voice mobile app. It lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. Ive never felt so alive. Make your business phone mobile with voice mobility. Comcast business. Built for business. In london. 6 30 here currencynas foreign reserve has fallen to a fouryear low. 2015 asng a slump from the peoples bank of china works to shore up u. N. And oili arabia minister the Saudi Arabia Oil minister talking with his counterpart in venezuela. North korea launched a rocket over the weekend. Clinton stopped short of assigning an outsider. The broncos have one super bowl 50. Won super bowl 50. Paid cbs about 5 spoton for a 30second during the broadcast. Anna thank you very much. Many markets in asia are closed for the Lunar New Year, year of the monkey. Caroline we are seeing risk sentiment picking up a little bit. Its really does seem to lead the market higher. We are seeing japan stocks trading up today. We are seeing wti crude, brent crude picking up. Weve got that socalled successful set of meetings on sunday between saudi arabia and venezuela. Countries really trying to galvanize some sort o