I am manus cranny. Anna it has just gone 6 00 in london. We have a good chart. Manus flashing in green. It breaks the 40 a barrel level. That is incredibly important. You saw the cash market for brent drop below 40. Of course, this comes on the back of a rather dysfunctional opec meeting. Anna we will get further , but they are quite we will on oil in 2063 talk to Societe Generale in 2016. We will talk to Societe Generale. Retest thesen lows. You are seeing a buildup in the 38 put options. Investigators are taking a big at that we will see wti down 38. The volume is tremendous. Anna good morning, caroline. Caroline Energy Stocks have slipped after opec gave up all pretenses of acting as a cartel. Pumping in an effort to squeeze out rivals such as russia and the u. S. Wti crude is once again below 40 per barrel and their is a Record Number of beds that it will fall below 38. President obama described last weeks shootings in california as an act of terrorism. In a rare speech from the oval office, he addressed the threat of terror at home and abroad and called on congress to pass tougher gun laws. Evidence that the killers were directed by a terrorist organization overseas or that they were part of a broader conspiracy here at home, but it is clear that the two of them had gone down the dark path of radicalization, embracing a perverted interpretation of islam. They stockpiled assault weapons, ammunition, and pipe bombs. This was an act of terrorism designed to kill innocent people. Caroline terrorism and the refugee crisis have also come into play in rantss regional in frances Regional Elections. The National Front has taken more than 27 of the vote, followed by Nicolas SarkozysRepublican Party, and trailed by socialists. Llandees inflation and an unprecedented recession have left many venezuelan voters want to change. They have also been hit hard by the falling oil price. The imf expects the economy to shrink 10 this year. Economists we spoke to see inflation at 124 . Lowered theirpan reference rate. The dollarame after rose on expectations of a u. S. Interest rate hike following strong jobs data on friday. In the british army has been storm lefter a rare several northern towns and cities flooded. Rainord 314 millimeters of fell in the Lake District over a 24hour period. Back to you. Manus lets get a check on the equity markets in asia. Post211,000usly on friday, playing the catchup game. Good morning to you. It was a pretty good start for the region. We have seen a little bit of a fallback Late Afternoon trade. The cost be is closing lower. For an coming through out of korean stocks with the won weakening once again. Chinese regulators coming through today with some more rules to try to stem that volatility we saw back in august by restricting the amount of time that we can trade on the stock futures. More in line with the cash market. In hong kong, a pretty good session. Up by. 3 . Japan climbing by 1 thanks to some Good Movement from the exporters. Australia closed pretty flat, weighed down by the weaker oil price. Of course, the oil price has been the order of the day. We have seen some big weakness coming through with crude slipping below 40 a barrel. One of the worst performers in the region. Origin energy is also weaker and cnooc trading down by 4 . Lets look at some other movers. Saying it wills fire another two executives. The summer rout continues. Having aof shins you pretty weak trading day in hong kong. Mcgrath is a real estate agent. It had an ipo price that was 2. 10. Its issueout 13 from price. Generally a positive session, just those oil layers and a couple of equity movers in the red today. Manus thank you very much. That takes us nicely to the probability of a rate hike. If you check in on your function friday, it was 74 . The first rate hike in a generation coming from the federal reserve. This was progressively present. A little bit colloquial . Anna certainly encourages people that the fed is going to move. Amazing that we were 70 in the middle of october. Lets get more on the news that u. S. Crude is trading below 40 a barrel. Opec has technically given up on acting as a cartel. We are joined by the global head of strategy and solutions at Societe Generale. What does this outcome mean for oil prices . Tell us what it means that they have stopped acting as a cartel. Ryan the feeling in vienna was very bearish. It was one of the most chaotic conclusions i had ever seen. The idea that oil closed below 40 a barrel on friday, if you are a chartist, i was talking with jason at Prestige Economics and he is very negative. You have a Closing Price of below 40 a barrel on friday. You are below the 30day average. You are below the 100day average. The volume of put oil below 38 weel in two weeks time are now five times the daily average. If you are looking at the charts, there is nothing good out there. Igns inre lots of sell s the market right now. It started before we got this chaotic conclusion, this word out of the opec meeting that they would allow the target to increase. Before that, we got the jobs number, which is also bearish because it means that the fed is that much more likely to raise rates, which means there is less money sloshing around to buy oil. Manus when you look at what happened in the meeting on . Riday, is it the end of opec people have been saying that for decades. What do you make of this debacle . They decided to officially pump more. Guests what is really happening is that a lot of these countries rely on oil to meet their budget requirements. The lower oil goes, the more volume they need to pump to keep the dollar cash revenues constant. Oilwould assume that lower should create a balancing act between supply and demand and we are not seeing that happening. With that being said, our view is that the oil price should stabilize and rebound in the next 12 months. Anna ryan pointed to the shortterm possibility that we get weaker in the shortterm and say, you get 60 by the end of 2016. Kokou on the shortterm, it is clearly possible to have more momentum. Towards the downside. That is why you have systematic who like tofunds capture a trend. That is clearly possible. The key thing to remember is that it is part of a phase and there is enough of a balancing act for the oil price to stabilize. Anna the low oil price causing havoc for various countries. Venezuela, some news surrounding them over the weekend. Ryan it is bad for all of them. 11 out of the 12 opec members cannot balance their budgets in 2016 at this oil price. Venezuela suffers more than all of them. Venezuela is proposing a 5 production cut. We got this parliamentary vote still being counted. This is what the venezuelans were concerned about. The Venezuelan Oil minister stormed out of the meeting yesterday. He was really disappointed. We are seeing the worst fears for the government. Seats up forof 167 grabs going to the opposition. That gives them a simple majority. It does not give a qualified majority, but it is definitely a problem. You look at the imf forecast for growth, 10 . Manus i want to bring you in on another commodity, iron ore. It is below 40 a ton. This has got consequence as well. A lot of people would not necessarily argue with 60, but iron ore and the commodity under space under pressure. Is it the bottom . Kokou that is the milliondollar question. In mind isve to have the emerging markets lowdown. At the end of the day, emerging markets are where you have Energy Intensity at the top of the range. When you have a slowdown for a lot of countries, it is no surprise to see Commodity Prices suffered. Oecd elephant in the room. You have to worry about the economy and balance supply and demand. It is tough to call the bottom, but over a 12month view, we should see prices stabilize or be higher from your than lower. Was sayingcolleague that Commodity Prices are bottoming out. Thank you very much. Brian, thank you to you as well. At whatere is a look else is ahead on the agenda today. Mark carney will speak at the Eu Parliamentary Committee in the afternoon in brussels. Bullardter today, james will speak about the u. S. Economy and Monetary Policy. Manus up next, we are talking terror. President obama says the California Shootings were carried out by radicalized muslims and the National Front makes gains in france on the backs of the terror attacks in terror attacks. Anna welcome back. You are watching countdown. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. Caroline barclays cut an additional 20 of Investment Banker staff. Most of this was in asia and the global cash equities business. Their ceo seeks to shore up profitability. An cuts come on top of existing program to eliminate 7000 jobs throughout 2016. Says it isities unable to contact two of its executives, adding to the turmoil at a brokerage that is being investigating investigated over the china stock route in august. Mediatecpointed to reports saying the two may have been taken away by authorities to assist in an inquiry. Ford is recalling as many as 452,000 cars, most of them in the u. S. , due to concerns that fuel tanks in 2010 and 2011 ford fusion and Mercury Milan models may crack and leak, causing a fire hazard. Back to you. Anna thank you very much. Dominates the headlines with president obama describing last weeks shooting as an act of terrorism. Meanwhile, the refugee security situation in france and the National Front party are enjoying success in the first round of Regional Elections there. The latestll have from paris in just a second. First, hans nichols, we have been watching what happened in the u. S. You cover the white house for many years. What is the president trying to accomplish with this address . Hans clearly trying to reassure the nation. Oval office for serious, somber addresses. It is only the third time he has used it, trying to warn isis and let them know, we will defeat them. He did say that the threat was complex, but more difficult to detect. We will overcome it. We will destroy isoand any other isil and any other organization that attempt to harm us. Will prevail by being strong and smart, resilient and by joining upon every aspect of american power. He said there was no evidence that the alleged attackers were in contact with figures from the islamic state. He launched a strategy review talking about a year things differently, especially with the visa program as the wife of the alleged attacker did come in on. Also urging Law Enforcement to revamp and tweak their use of technology to try to prevent future attacks. To, ifthis comes down you look at the conversations, he is criticized for it only being 13 minutes. A line saying it was reactive, indirect, and incremental strategy. This is what obamas critics are accusing him of. Is that the crux of the counterargument . I dont think it is fair to judge it on the length of the speech. Speeches can typically be quite short. George w. Bush did some short ones as well. Pretty much all the republican candidates have criticized president obama, the man they are seeking to replace. One of the criticisms that did not come was from paul ryan, the newlyelected house speaker. He and obama are trying to have a productive relationship. He said he was disappointed, no new plan, and a halfhearted attempt to distract from the failing policy. That is a partisan charge from the new speaker. I will be interesting to watch affects theire ability to work on other issues, funding the government, moving forward on a variety of fiscal issues. It seems like president obama has not just disrupt disappointed the republican president ial candidates, but the party at large. Francesoline, farright National Front has made gains. The first time voters have gone to the polls since the terror attacks in paris. This is quite a historic victory. Give us the details. Caroline yes, it is the First Political test since the terrorist attacks in paris. It is a wave of dark lou over the map of france dark blue over the map of france. The National Front is leading in six out of the 12 regions in mainland france. The socialist party, the governing party of francois hollande, is only leading into regions in two regions. The current defense minister played a big part in the response to the terrorist party, the sarkozys Republican Party, is leading in four regions, including the paris region, frances main region with 12 million people. Marine le pens party has been playing on the fear of radical islam attacks. Leading with more than 40 of the vote. This region is in the north of france for you have a refugee isp and the other candidate the niece of marine le pen, only 26 years old. She is leading in the southeast of france, which is at the Mediterranean Border where there is also the fear of migrants. Last nighten spoke and said the National Front had become the first party in france. The people expressed themselves and with the people, france raised its head. This confirms what former butots had announced official observers did not want to admit yet. The National Movement is without partyntests to the first in france, meaning it is hardly represented in parliament. Manus thank you very much. Lets see how that all plays out across the spectrum. Kokou is still here with us. When you listen to the american political issues over the weekend, it is dealing with the reality of terror. Lets try and think about this. Is at superhigh levels in terms of his personal ratings. Here we are with the far right exceeding potentially to power. From a broad euro perspective, what are the risks here . Kokou it as to the Political Uncertainty with respect to the programs or the witness to investment in growth. Also, a lot of the budgetary austerity that were applied to some countries in europe. I think the markets are likely to not necessarily react positively to an environment where you have more uncertainty and lack of consistency with the different political programs. We potentially could see more volatility over the next few months. You also have to think about brexit as well. That could drive the debate. Anna is that something that will have an impact on markets . Is that going to be more tangible or markets to get their head around . they are trying to ascertain the possibility of a brexit. A 45 possibility, on the high end of the spectrum. The clear message here is that Political Uncertainty is going to be a key. Manus picking up on that theme, the danes had a vote on the third and they kept the focus on justice first. Does this embolden the hand for cameron as he tries to renegotiate . That it is aclear bargaining chip and will create more uncertainty and debate around this topic. Anna thank you. Weakens its pboc reference rate as pressure builds from a potential fed rate hike. The latest on china is next. Manus it is 6 30 in london. This is countdown. Lets get the first word headlines with caroline hyde. Caroline stocks have slipped after opec gave up its pretext as a cartel. Inhas said to keep pumping an effort to squeeze nonmember rivals such as russia and the u. S. Wti crude is once again below 40 per barrel and there are a Record Number of bets that it will fall below 38 in the next two weeks. President obama has described last weeks shootings in california as an act of terrorism. In a rare speech from the oval office, he addressed the threat of terror at home and abroad and called on congress to pass tougher gun laws. The outlined the new authorization of force against the islamic state. We have no evidence that the killers were directed by a terrorist organization overseas or that they were part of a broader conspiracy here at home. But it is clear that the two of gone down the dark path of radicalization, embracing a perverted interpretation of islam that calls for war against america and the west. They stockpiled assault weapons, ammunition, and pipe bombs. This was an act of terrorism designed to kill innocent people. caroline terrorism has also come into play in frances recent elections. According to early polling data, the National Front has taken 47 of the vote followed by sarkozys Republican Party and trailed by hollandes socialists. Manus talk us through the markets. U. S. Is playing the catchup game. What is the market looking like . Caroline ramifications of the United States jobs data spilling through into europe. We are seeing gains across the board. The nikkei 225 leading the charge this morning. We are seeing more optimism about the u. S. Economys ability to strengthen despite what we expect to be the first rate hike in almost a decade since 2006. Do keep your eye on some asian markets. Asiapacific in the green. It is the exporters faring particularly well. Honda selling cars into the u. S. The yen weakening versus the dollar. Keep an eye on the weakening currencies. Kiwi is feeling the impact the most. The u. S. Dollar strengthening. , 78 factoring in a probability that we will see a rate hike come the next meeting. Keep an eye on the kiwi and oil. We have been talking about it all morning with ryan and your guest. Oil is lower. Opec basically saying we are not going to stick to production targets. Instead, we are going to be squeezing out the u. S. And russia. It is about market share, not market price. All stocks falling across the likes of asia. Exploration is also trading lower. Look at that chart. One week, off by almost 5 . Could it go even lower . Clearly, much of the ramifications spilling manus 38 is