Guy it is thanks giving on the east coast, five hours behind read not quite there yet. Maybe you are still enjoying yourself from the night before. Happy thanksgiving to everybody stateside, or if you are watching here in london or elsewhere in europe. Let me just take you through some of the charts you need to know about this morning. This is the german twoyear yield, heading towards the ecb meeting, how low can yields go . Zero. Down here, minus still a few days to go before the meeting, is there further pressure . Anna lots of questions about manages to dohi something that surprises the market, when there is so much expectation already. Guy does he have a rabbit in his hat . We will talk about that later. Lets get the first news. Francois hollande will meet Vladimir Putin in moscow for talks on trac tackling the threat posed by isis. This comes after he asked Angela Merkel for more help. David cameron urged parliament to back his plan to extend bombing attacks. It is a move likely to so plit the parties. He said isis presents a clear and present danger to the united kingdom. The russian pilot who survived being shot down by turkey says his airplane never left the airspace. The bomber was hit near the border, and and kara says it has been warned several times about violating the space. The euro has hit a seven month low against the dollar as investors expect the central bank will expand stimulus next week read it is headed for the biggest monthly th decline since march. The fed considers raising Interest Rates for the first time in almost a decade. And the Shanghai Stock Exchange is celebrating today, marking 25 years since its launch. The composite index has gained more than three and a half thousand percent. Chinas the center of 5 trillion equity market route. Guy thank you very much, indeed. Anna lets check in with yvonne man. Talking about the shanghai composite, what a wild ride it has been the past 25 years. 55 ball and bear markets later, we are seeing the markets looking pretty strong today up 1 5 of a percent. The are finally getting action this week to another we have seen the standout between turkey and russia, that impact is fading. Now we are seeing crude oil gaining for a fourth day. And holding those prices above 43 a barrel. And we are seeing tiny socks in hong kong rising for the first time in four days. Up half of a percent in the trading day, it looks like we look at the relative strength index, were heading into those overbought territory. In the high 60s or so. It was kind of a snooze fest session, getting the turkey ready, they are going to be closed for the u. S. Holiday on thursday morning. Overall, in australia, we see 30 aussie stocks enduring a increase. We see losses now. But it was a Business Investment falling on record. 9. 2 down from the previous quarter. And that really took a dive for the aussie dollar. We are seeing at 72. 38. Some movers in australia, this is an australian firm. But a law firm, i should say. It lost half of its value in sydney today. Looking at the u. K. , the government Just Announced proposals making changes to the socalled whiplash claims, removing the light to general damages for minor injuries from a car crash. It will not have a big impact on earnings for 2016, but a big chunk of the business comes from the u. K. They have twice as many employees in the u. K. Than they do in australia. The shares are down 51 today. Sixday losing streak, the longest one we have seen in two years. Down ling today, 3. 7 a 10year low. The jpmorgan cut the stock dividend, dropping 50 . Finally, i want to and on one thing. Asia, we arers in seeing a mixed picture. There is a report that apple is going to be using organic led screens on iphone from 2018. The display is following 7. 5 . Lg up 1 in korea. They are investing eight and a half billion dollars on the future generation screens. Back to you. Anna thank you very much. Guy french president Francois Hollande heads to russia to enlist Vladimir Putin, a task made more complicated on tuesday. It comes after the french president asked Angela Merkel to step up germanys commitment to the cause. Ryan chilcote is in moscow. Hans nichols is in berlin. Things have changed cents Francois Hollande first changed his trip. Ryan this is going to be tricky. Look at russias relationship with turkey, the spat only growth. Russia limiting imports into russia. This is coming from the russian worthper about 1 billion of food was imported from turkey into russia just the first 10 months of the year. That looks like it will get stuck in customs, if it is allowed to enter russia at all. Car parts from turkey may also come under scrutiny, and not be allowed in. When it comes to the food, we saw a russia do a similar thing in response that sanctions. It was a counter sanction to the eu food imports and when they osed sanctions against russia. The foreign minister said he will not go to turkey and call on russians to refrain going to that country. We have seen dozens of tour operators cancel packages. Russia was the single biggest destination outside of the country anywhere in the world more than 3 million. We saw an attack on a group of russians yesterday throwing stones, and eggs, at the Turkish Embassy in moscow. Not so much a reflection on the mood on the street, in moscow, as the mood inside the kremlin. Many analysts tell me there is no way some like that could happen without the kremlin turning a blind eye to it. And russia has ratcheted up intervention in syria, introducing the s400 antiaircraft weapon. This will give the russians the primacy over syrian skies, with the ability to take out anything flying in syrian airspace. Not Just Aircraft but missiles as well, that is in response to the downing of the airplane. What is going to be difficult for president Francois Hollande is going to be two things. One, being the french they want the russians to abandon their plan of going after the moderate opposition, as they see it. You know, the turks say that is exactly what russia was doing when they downed their airplane in the north of syria. Secondly, of course, they need to joinians to want the coalition. After the Foreign Ministers comments when he said effectively this was a premeditated move by the turks, it will be very difficult for some of the hawks on if you will in the kremlin, to believe they can actually cooperate with nato member countries and nato in general in some kind of campaign in syria. Anna; hans, president Francois Hollande extract anything from the german chancellor . Piling on pressure perhaps . Hans heading into the meeting, Angela Merkel was very clear she would listen to Francois Hollande. She offered what i heard in the german press is saying is a pretty clear hint that she would consider military action. Have a listen. Terrorism is our common enemy. It is our common task to fight it. The Islamic State cannot be convinced with words. It must be forced with fighting. Hans you know, the idea that islamic ththe state cannot be commenced with words. They could do more in terms of joining a military campaign potentially in syria. The extent of germanys involvement is delivering weapons to the kurds to fight the state through those means. Maybe more troops in mali fighting terrorism there. But in general, this is a chancellor wanted to show how willing she would listen. How she would do, what she could bring her people along the goahead and contributed i heard and Angela Merkel that was open to new possibilities. That could open a new debate back here in berlin. Guys . Guy thank you very much, indy. Ryan chilcote in moscow. Hans nichols in berlin. Lets bring in chris wyllie. Context arounder this. Earlier in the week, that was particularly true. How concerned are you about the situation escalating . Chris when we look at markets, we look at a number of different factors. And i have to say that geopolitics is not one of them. That is by design. The reason being that, first of all, they are highly unpredictable. Secondly, their effects tend to be reasonably short lasting. Unless they have effects on other key economic variables. It always used to be the oil price, did admit . Down, it isroken not a big supplier it used to be. But that used to be the transmission mechanism for the economy. Without that, we found the effects become even more transitory. The reaction to the jet being shut down, clearly, there are risks around this. And it is not something we take lightly. Guy do we fully understand the implications . Numbers of consumer confidence, 70 cold after the paris attacks, we start seeing a meaningful downturn if people are nervous . They dont want to go shopping. It starts to ripple through and what people are doing, it will have an effect on Mario Draghis thinking . Chris a great anecdotal statistic from my cab driver, he said business was down 5 in the last week in the aftermath of paris. That is in london. It is not just heathrow traffic, it is generally people pulling back a bit. So it is having an impact. Again, how long will that last . History tends to relate not very long. Guy one of those things that is highly it was the charlie formation the the people tend to discount, the second one or third one, it starts to change thinking of it. Chris exactly. And it may well have been that some of these terrorist cells were looking for those followup actions. Although maybe the Police Activity in france and belgium has successfully disrupted that for the time being. But it only takes one bomb on one airplane. And that would be quite a hammer blow. And of course, never a good time, but it comes in a time of uncertainty with consumers wraps wondering which way to jump in any event . More so in the anglosaxon world than the Interest Rates on the rise of the increases. It is not helpful for consumer confidence. Anna the French Economy is on the trailing edge of the European Economic recovery. Ofn before the awful events november 13. Will display into Mario Draghis thinking . How long they influence the shopping cycle, whatever . But mario draghi have to decide next month if he fulfills what is increasingly being seen as baked in by forecasters. Chris absolutely. And mario draghi is certainly conforming to the party he has followed since he came into the ecb, which is it is monte carlo or bust really. A bit like it is in japan in terms of throwing the kitchen sink to get the economy moving. He has shown, there was this period prior to qe where people were asking if he was all talk, but maybe he has seen that in qe. So we are now setting up another one of those moments where people are looking for him to follow through. You see that with that twoyear term and yield. It does look like he will. It is all about the euro, of course. Ensuring that the competitive advantage which has been delivered by the depreciation of the euro is locked in. Certainly euro needs another year of that. Anna by the end of this year . Be thesuspect that will channel to focus on. But there are all kinds of rabbits in the hat. He is a very big hat at the moment, it seems a number of rabbits to choose from. Chris you can rename the rabbit, depending on the policy. Guy let us talk about the day ahead. We will get a reading if you are looking forward to a busy day of equity trading, youre out of luck. Check your calendar. It is thanksgiving. The market is closed all day. Anna as expectations grow, what will the European Central bank do . We hear exclusively from the ecb Vice President , coming up next . Anna welcome back. Ex 19 in london. Let us get the bloomberg news. 12 of the biggest players and Interest Rates have been sued for allegedly conspiring to block Fund Managers from entering the exchange market. Filed in new york by public Pension Funds names most of the biggest european and u. S. Banks among the defendants. Two or three years more of pain, however in a bloomberg interview, the company ceo for copper and called said the market will recover faster than other commodities. Troubles in the spanish renewable community, facing trouble this morning. That is as it teeters on the edge of spains biggest corporate story. For more on the stories and others, had to bloomberg. Com. Speculation is mounting that the ecb will expand stimulus next week, driving the euro down to a near sevenmonth low against the dollar. Hans nichols sat down with Vitor Constancio for an inclusive interview. Lets get to hans now. Hek us to the concerns that has come of the concerns about a slowdown in emerging markets. Are they worried about what is happening with the fed . Talk us through the piece as they see it . Hans they see three potential stumbling blocks out there. Number one, what the fed might do. But that is not the highest on their list in terms of concern. They are more concerned about what a fed hike might do to emerging markets. And if that spillover effect, what it would have on the economy in the eurozone . And maybe the third pillar he mentioned was concerned about the nominal growth, what you do there to actually spur investment. When i tried to get him to Say Something all quantitative easing, theyre going into the lockup. They will be quiet until that december 3 meeting. Here is what he had to say about Exchange Rates. Vitor constancio we dont have any objective regarding Exchange Rates. Relationo, no direct to the Exchange Rate. That is very clear. What we are doing is because we have inflation issues very low. We want to issue variability in both directions. All the rest is up to the market. To react to our policy, which our strictly determined by domestic sectors. Guy, i think the overall view is that the ecb is concerned about don side risks in the emerging market. It is something they will consider. The latest bit of information that will get before they make their decision, they get staff recommendations. Of course, the has a lot to do with inflation and price stability. Anna we will see what those a little. You also made your way to the bank, how are the concerns of the german central bankh . Hans it is a 20 minute ride. In a cab but it seems like you are going to a different world. At the ecb you hear about emerging markets coming you get to the bundesbank, the effect is the low Interest Rate . Is that forcing them to take on a little more risk, perhaps too much risk . Here is what he had to say on the subject. What is really a problem is about low Interest Rates is how long it stays. The longer you have this area out, the more difficult it becomes. And it will also lead to the fact that creditors will take out loans, probably quite longterm, which is not that easy to refinance for banks. And if you book is a bank a longterm maturity for quite some time, it is still low yielding as it is today, lets say in 15 years. Lowou are booking profitability business for quite some time. This is worrisome. What he toldissue, me was that the governors speaks to from emerging markets, they are saying they are comfortable with an increase. They just want it to happen. They want certainty. That is one message we got in both places, both tanks. They do seem a world apart. Ride. A 16. 60 cab how much do you tip . I think the german would just give 17. We clearly need a function on the bloomberg to tell us how much to tip in various cities, whether it is frankfurt or berlin. Im sure you guys never blundered this way. Guy have you actually checked that that does not exist . Let us face it, the bloomberg terminal has everything you need in life ar. This allows me an opportunity to talk about your driving, which i know is the best anywhere anyone has a bloomberg terminal. Anna edwards is the best driver. Guy, you may have got me fired. It could be on the terminal. Hopefully, no one got fired. Guy how could they not be . Chris wt us get to yllie. Should we go down the direction of the fed . Clearly, there was a divergent opinion that hans discovered about the Interest Rate in the fed, weather worries would be greeted as a result . Chris i have a hard time imagining that a rate hike in the fed is going to come as any more of a surprise to emerging bakers thanalban over here. September, the last time everybody thought u. S. Would drop Interest Rate, we were hearing from key emerging markets they wanted the rate hike to just happened. So we can get off of this. And i think that must still be true. Of course it all depends on what happens next, how many rate hikes, how far behind the curve they are. But if the current script is verified, which is that we will have a dab on the brakes, a dovish round basically, and some stability in Interest Rates could be just the tonic the markets need to get over this issue. Maybe they will see beyond this, up until now, it has been murderous for emerging markets in particular. It could clear the way actually, who knows . You could get a better performance. Guy were going to tip janet yellen for her driving. We want understanding about where she is going green where is the ecb going . That is much more difficult in terms of the navigation story . You have a german twoyear trading at. 419. How low can they go . Chris it doesnt feel like you are scraping the last bit out of the corner of the tin. There are lax with these things lags with these things. Theecb will now be more psychology of locking in the market moves that should already occurred, making sure they dont disappoint markets. This will already be a service. Anna chris stays with us. We live in a pick and choose world. Love or like . Naughty or nice . Calm or bright . But at bedtime.