Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20151116 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG Countdown November 16, 2015

Guy i am guy johnson. A city getting back to business. Let me tell you about what you need to know about events overnight into today. What we have seen is an early attack from france and the middle east. French warplanes bombing targets in Northern Syria in the city of raqqa, Islamic State stronghold. Let me introduce the reporters for you and tell you what will be going on around the europe. Nichols. Ot hans she is at the bataclan. We have zeb eckert in asia giving us the latest from reaction. Have a reporter in brussels. We will deal with those guys talk about what is happening in marketas a larger reaction. French warplanes have been bombing targets in the northern and Islamic State stronghold targeted by french officials. Those Officials Say that tax in paris on friday were ordered from syria and Islamic State Islamic State said it was payback for frances intervention in the middle east. Police say 2 of the attackers had links to brussels. Brusselsl cars for were used as seven people have been detained in connection with the investigation. A manhunt continues for abdeslam saleh. You can see a picture of him. He was involved and considered him dangerous. In the paris attacks, dominating the agenda of the g20 meeting. President obama and putin spent hourlked for more than an and syria was the main subject. The german chancellor Angela Merkel said refugees fleeing the conflict must not to be blamed for what happened. Lets goodbye to our reporters and talk about the story that is developing fairly quickly. Zeb eckert is out in asia for us handling the market story as we close down asia. Zeb, what is going on . Zeb negative sentiment, a somber day in the markets across the asiapacific. You see this feeding through nearly every aspect clients. Rotation out a risk and clients taking risk off the table and looking to the safety of japanese yen and treasuries. Lets start there. A lot of action. Yen is advancing. That reflects the risk profile of the markets right now. And investors want to put their money and say places. That is why gold is advancing. 1 advance. Ounce. N crude oil is moderately higher. 44. 77 areaing at the treasury market. What is happening here. His government bonds are moving substantially. Check out the u. S. 10 year. A tenyear note, we saw a decline three basis points to 2. 25 and the demand for japanese and australian bonds and what worsen with a u. K. Guild. The 10 year and the japanese as well as the australian and thats what you have on the 10 year government in australia. Quite active today among others. The equity markets, what we see declines across the major markets today and equities really reflecting the state of affairs globally. This new risk profile that had is brought to bear in the markets as a result of the tragic events in paris. Selling off commodity related shares and industrial metals, the concern that perhaps this will have impact on Global Growth, chinas growth in travel and tourism which we will get to in a moment. Check out the hang seng. Shanghai composite off the lows and the session. Australia and new zealand today seeing the client. Among the stopovers, airlines and travel are among the biggest decliners across the asiapacific. Warning to itsa citizens not to travel to france. That is eva airways, one of the main carriers, down 5 . Another airline, down 3 , the main korean. Qantas down. Travel agents getting hammered today. Line in phoenix falling lion and phoenix falling. Finally, we will end with commodities. Chemical related shares did very well today. 11 gain. New press mining, showing just how much investors are rotates them into gold right now. Asrible uncertainty persists a result of these very, very tragic events in paris. Back to you. Guy thank you very much. The markets reaction. The politics will take a longer to unwind. We do not know the applications of what the paris attacks are going to mean in europe and around the world. Global leaders have been speaking and it is what they have been saying. Strong and even if it gets hurt, it stands up again and nothing will bring to hit it even though grief is all around us. France is strong and active and brave and will try trying over barbarism. German friends, we feel so close to you. We cry with ul and we will fight and you we cry with you will fight with you against something so inappropriate and comprehensible. The family and relatives, lets make sure you germany feels with you and your pain. President obama was dead prepared and ready to provide whatever assistance the people of france need we stand prepared and ready to provide whatever assistance the people of france need. French reversed a shoulder to shoulder with the United States time and time again. We want to be clear we stand with them in the fight against terrorism and extremism. Guy such a early stage in those comments are really predictable. What ultimately will be the net result of what happened in paris . Hans nichols, our international correspondent, is out of the bataclan. Ns, as we wake of this monday and paris against back to business and try to understand what happens next, what is clear is the french have structurally and struck back and thats predictable. Nevertheless, potentially the french president announcing a state of emergency for three months. We could see farreaching implications into the elections recently and also what will happen may be the longer term in terms of progress. Hans yeah. Ministry called for a meeting of eu interior ministers and will likely be a gathering in the coming days and were confirmed. What were expecting from the french president , on the political side, the french president is expecting him to ask for additional powers according to local press. We know he will be meeting at 4 00 today to declare a state of emergency for another three months. Right now, 12 days. Anything beyond that, he needs parliamentary approval. Let me bring you up to speed on the investigation and where we are on the security aspect. Of the seven attackers that were killed, french authorities and the Prosecutors Office have identified three of them. There are looking for one which either believe to be an ace command. Not to see the number has been limited to eight. They do not actually have a full handle. It is unclear how many actually, how many cutlasses their work. The focus is on finding saleh abdeslam. He is potentially the 8th attacker. There is a manhunt across europe. He did cross from france into belgium. He was let go. And if they have had a total of seven in detainees in brussels after that. Just beyond me is the bataclan of omar inger mostefai has been identified. A storys have gone all does and that the words have gone to his family. Will see the increased cooperation between the u. S. And france on airstrikes. That annexes between frances involvement in the attack here is made clear by the Islamic State in french authorities who say this attack was designed and orchestrated inside of syria. Guy . Elements significant of what happened in brussels of being part of the story. The crossborder element, the manhunt across the border seems to, back to the idea of the Free Movement of people run to europe is a problem for the Security Problems per in the immigration story to mix in. We do not understand how that is in diagram will work. Diagram will work. What are people saying in brussels about the longterm implications of this . Is at the crossborder story, the Free Movement of people, going to sit sidebyside with increased security is that will develop around the paris attacks . Can see already that there are problems with that. One of the first results out of france was to make their borders more secure. To agreement is supposed have a visa free travel throughout this area. Have provisions of the allows temporary, was supposed to be temporary controls and france has initiated these. It is in the middle of the refugee crisis in several other schengen countries. Germany is put in place restrictions within the schengen framework. We have some cracks, if you will , in the schengen framework. This terror story will added to it. In the mix is the suggestion, the idea that one of the attackers in paris came through the immigration process and through greece and made his way further into europe. Argument, ais a big big problem for how the schengen framework is going to go forward. How does this leave Angela Merkel . To trying to send her policy saying we cannot draw the line between the 2 and would need to make sure both migrants are not being blamed for what happened. The pressure on her must be increasingly there to change policy and change attack on this. The question, where is the pressure going to come from . Maybe Public Relations and there already are when you read a german press. Will it find a head in a challenge to merkel . Will it manifested by political challenge within the coalition or from outside . Approval rating is down but she seems to be holding her coalition together. Angela merkel reacts well in crises. This could be a potential crisis that will challenge her authority. Guy . Finally, we are looking at what the reaction for brussels is going to be. When we look at what ultimately guys like mr. Juncker are going to be reacting to this. What are their stances going to be . Are they going to defendant the union . Sure i try to defend schengen . Or see what happens . Trying to play a quiet role in a pivotal one down the road. A arehayden i think is going to try to defend at the system. They want to defend the system, a cornerstone of the eu virtually from beginning there ofld be this Free Movement people, Free Movement of workers within the euro area and ever closer union. This is a fundamental right, fundamental tenet of the eu and mr. Juncker will defend a desperate what they are going to save in the implementation of the border controls has not been as it needs to be. As they have put proposals out there to strengthen especially the external borders of the eu and the schengen system to make sure the refugees and the asylumseekers coming in are properly register and we know who they are and what exactly is going on the borders. Thank you hayden, very much for the hans nichols. So many other angles on this story, anna. Look at what potentially could happen as a result of this feeding into the ecbs thinking as it decides what to do in a december and the british political story as we watch what happens. Will this be back in the debate surrounding europe and with are not the u. K. Should leave . All of these stories related back in to what is happening in paris. Paris it gets back to business. It faces are very different world of this monday morning. Anna thank you. Guy johnson in paris. Well get back to him later. Another voice. And carn, founder of carn investments. He joins us now and the studio this monday. Great to see you. What are the broad implications that matter to you and would you look at what happened on friday in paris . Which lens do you look through . Nick carn as your correspondents were saying, quite a lot of angles. Centrally, the implications for europe, particularly what happens to the schengen agreement, which is already in a ragged retreat. And much oracle however much more wants to distance this from the refugee crisis. That many peoples minds things will be closely connected. The evidence for one of the attackers was an europe as a refugee through greece is certainly going to testify that debate. Anna if we get full confirmation that was indeed the case. Is that of the reich, something that has material implications from here . Nick carn yes, from a more market point of view, the biggest as essential store existential threat would be a le pen presidency in 2017. That is not all that terribly far away. Back to work after christmas, that will be next year. Likely, rapidly increasing problem and again rightly or wrongly, this kind of horrific event plays into the hands of the reich and in one focus on immigration as a central part of the debate. You inc. It will lead to some kind of breakup of the eurozone . It seems like a tail risk. We have not really had time to digest the political implications on friday. Nick carn it remains a tell risk and the rise of the extreme and places like greece and the form of one of the consistence stories and europe as we both know if the infamous phrase, europe is france and germany and Everything Else is just trimmings. If youre looking for something risk, the existential yet the look of something that of facts either the german policy or relation between france and germany. And le pen presidency, would be one of those events. Against currently membership in the euro. Anna nick carn, thank you. He stays with us. We will continue our coverage of the parisian terror attack. , we from paris developments will talk about the Global Economy and japan as a enters its second recession since shinzo abe took office. A four recession a 4th recession in five years. Guy this is bloomberg television. Im guy johnson. What you need to know. Frigid jets bombing french jets bombing islamic targets in raqqa, an isis stronghold. The attack ony friday was ordered by isis. Isis said it was payback for military interventions in the middle east. Brussels is increasingly the focus of the investigation as police say 2 of the attackers had links to the city. Two rental car for a belgian were used as seven people detained in connection with investigation. A manhunt continues for saleh abdeslam. Police believe the 26yearold brussels born man, this is his picture, was involved. They consider him to be dangerous. And understandably the paris attacks are dominating the agenda of the g20s summit in turkey. President obama and putin spoke more than half an hour and a syria was at the main subject of their conversation. Chancellor, Angela Merkel said refugees fleeing the conflict in syria must not to be blamed for what happened in the french capital. Couple of just be with what you to know about paris and will be back to business day for the french capital. 20 what to talk about it we will do that later. Back to you. Plenty to talk about and we will do that later. And abound thank you. The Global Economy. Anna thank you. Japan is officially back in recession. After the economy contracted and the Third Quarter as Business Investment fell. Rose domestic product fell. Death Gross Domestic Product fell. Economists estimated a 2 decline. Gross domestic product fell. Forji okubo, thank you joining us. What are the broader implications . Do you see this triggering furthering quantitative easing from the boj . Takuji okubo before that, i would like to extend condolences to the victims in paris from japan. It is a tragedy and should not happen. Gdp, itjapan, japanese was weaker than expected. Most economists expected a week numbers anyway. Turnednce production negative for the julyseptember quarter, most estimates expecting negative growth. It should not have surprise anybody. Anna indeed. Looking for brighter spots in the data, perhaps at there were some especially around Consumer Spending or the extent of the businesses were running down inventories and it means more production in the future. What were the positives he took away from the number . Takuji okubo right. Side, i would say results were actually positive, up by 0. 5 quarter over quarter. The fundamental for consumers not bad. Starting to rise. A very small amount, but rising. Greatergy prices is a consumers for a private consumption, number is positive. Part, weon the capital said that seamlessly japanese topany managers reacting invest in japan and a very bad sign for abenomics. Anna what this is mean for Prime Minister shinzo abe and his agenda . The second recession under abenomics, isnt it . The fourth in five years in japan. Takuji okubo indeed. Has beenid, japan recession prone in the last five years. 2011 and againn in 20142015. I do expect the japanese government to take some countermeasure by formulating stimulus package to the end of this year. You stimulus package, think the emphasis will be more on fiscal policy rather than more quantitative easing . Takuji okubo i think for japan for point of view, not easing any further. Yen is at a historical low. Issign of the japan that back into deflation from a gdp report this morning, we saw domestic demand going up. View, nons point of reason for them to intervene. Government,zo Abe Shinzo Abe is targeting 2 growth rate and is negative number is certainly not consistent with his target. He has to respond. Anna looking at the market today, work out what his reaction to japanese gdp data and macro news and what his reaction to the dreadful events of friday in paris. The when you look at where the currency is right now, the japanese currency, where are your expectations from where it heads to hear . It is perceived safe haven door times a geopolitical safe haven during times a geopolitical risk. Still okubo in terms, i think the direction is for yen to weaken as long as the u. S. Fed is expected to hike in deskber or the very new near future. The direction of the yen and we never know. If theres any more publications on geopolitical side, yes, risk could drive that yen higher. The main outlook, the majority is for the yen to weaken. Aunt what he or anna what are your expectations of the draft will events of friday and it seems market expectation around feds Interest Rate seem to lessen a little bit since friday. This plays into the thinking at the boj and other global, central banks. Takuji okubo yes, i think of the fed is data dependent. If we see any massively negative employment number in early december, fed may decide to postpone it. We never know. The chances are still that of the fed will go for height in december. At a bank where do you see the japanese economy going from here anna where do you say the japanese economy going from here . To have success . Well, in at the longterm, i am still a pessimist on the success of abenomics. And everybody in the Financial Market knows we have to distinguish the short to medium term and longterm. And long term. In the shortterm, 2

© 2025 Vimarsana