>> stockton reports an increase in profits, but says thousands of jobs will go. >> there will be cut. it is too early to show that. >> do you think it would be more in the range of hundreds or thousands? >> i would say more like a thousand. ♪ guy: welcome to countdown. and i'm: -- anna: it is just past 6:00 here in london. mark carney is here later on in the press conference. everyone waiting to see if he will change market expectations for where rates are in the u.k. and when they will get hikes. anna: 1% or 2%. that is how i like to phrase it. are loudas if there voices saying there could be more, maybe another joining the ranks of those trying to get an interest rate hike. more broadly, it is clues. guy: i think it is 1%. i think the fed story is getting more interesting. i think will feedback into what is happening with the bank. janet yellen really making it clear that that december hike is still very much on the card. -- cards. the markets are alive to that risk. this is how they said that have shifted over the last few months. currently we are at 56%. six months ago we were at 70%. the data got worse. sign was strong on the pmi rating. that seems to be pushing people toward set debt story. fisher is almost on message talking about how inflation is not too far below the central bank. thathe was making it clear we should go back to using the set policy -- taylor rule set policy. we would have rates at 2.8% in the u.s. of the moment. that would be a big change. anna: let's talk about china. shop isnd the china the phrase we used. after the summer we had that in or miss route in china stocks. after we saw that, we have since seen a staggering recovery. guy: this is the last few months. this is a 21% move off of the lows that we hit in august to where we are now. it looks like it has room. will be feds change that? will the authorities in beijing lean against that. anna: linkage is between the central banks. it comes into the fed, bank of england conversation. let's talk about the news we have had in the last half-hour. more recently, the french bank general reported -- we have the report. >> we saw a 28% increase in third-quarter profit for france's second-biggest bank. 1.3 billion euros versus estimates of 840 million euros. this is an accounting gain tied to socgen's odette. consumer levels raising. in the second quarter, socgen had a -- it's highest profits in the financial crisis. it was largely equity trading driving. this time we had a drop -- 5.5% drop. fixed income revenue drops 23%. bank had aniggest increase in revenue from trading in the quarter. on the consumer bank, 17th percent in profit as revenue rose. guy: we will be hearing from the ceo at socgen in a few minutes. he has some interesting things to say about the retail banking story. anna: let's talk about what is going on in the u.s.. let's talk about toyota. breaking news. operating profit coming in ahead of the estimates. guy: they have cut the global target to 10 million the unit -- 10 million units. that is not a significant downgrading. we saw this earlier -- weakness in domestics japan. it will be interesting to see this global number. there are also announcing a chunky buyback. there will be spending as much as 150 billion yen. from 10.5 cut it units to 10 million. --'s leave the oddest story automobile story. guy: janet yellen indicated a 2015 liftoff is definitely in place. the federal reserve chair said a december hike is a quote live possibility. janet yellen: what the committee has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market, and to return inflation to a 2% target over the medium-term. if the incoming information supports that expectation, then our statement indicates that december would be a live possibility. importantly we have made no decision about it. anna: a live possibility. representative brad sherman urged yellen to hold off until the spring. suggesting forces higher than the fed a may 2016 hike. plan is not: god's for things to rise in the autumn. that is why we call it fall. nor is it to god's plan for things to rise in the winter through the snow. god's plan is for things to rise in the spring. if you want to be good with the almighty, you might want to delay until may. bit later on he did clarify, he does not really think. has an opinion on monetary policy. level,on a serious illustrate the political pressure. have athink you have to congressman from california to get away with that. i don't think you could get away with that from other states. anna: quite possibly. it is super thursday. may gettingwith it went decisions on interest-rates. for more let's get a mark barton outside of the bank of england. -- go to mark barton outside of the bank of england. mark: good morning. no fireworks yet, but it is early day. six hours to go until the bank of england's super thursday simultaneous announcement. the rate's decision, and the quarterly inflation report. it is a repeat -- it is a preview. we have jeremy with us. if we will get fireworks today, ?ill it come might we get another dissenter? forbes voteay see for a rate hike today. certainly some of the chatter recently has been more about the sooner than later elements of needing to start policy timing before it is too late. if we are going to bleed into the market. if it is going to be slow or gradual than we have to start now. if there is one person to flip. mark: what is interesting today about today -- what is interesting about today is reading the room, dissecting them, and deciding what they mean. there is a divide. yourself, first or second quarter, the market, november. since the bank needs to bring forward market expectations. jeremy: the market has been overly pessimistic. saw --he bubble we development -- development market inflation would be what we have seen. october minutes of said there has been no material impact on the u.k.. jeremy: i think they will continue that. he will continue to say the impact for example where it is happening in europe or the u.s., will be more than is currently happening in emerging markets. they will continue to press on that. inflation will be falling hard in the first quarter of next year. is for .3forecast this year and 1.5 the year after. three years, 2.14. what do you do the -- to the two and three year horizon? jeremy: i think people are looking for a dip below 2%. if they stay solid at 2% -- it has worked out in the basis they did nothing and on the current market policy interest rate changes. that differentiation should show that even with the slightly lax expectations the market has come a inflation might go higher than 2%. mark: i promise i will not mention god. doesn't matter when the fed goes or not? jeremy: i think it still matters. i think every policymaker out ,here, regardless of which bank they are still looking to see what the federal reserve will do. yesterday was a good indicator that december will likely be the month or we see a federal reserve rate hike. are reallyink people willing to preempt them. the bank of england is tightening. it is different using. -- using. you do not want to get it wrong. december for the fed, may for the thinking went. mark: brilliant. jeremy kirk, chief economist. our first full of the morning after 6:00. polls.ill be further and i think -- anna: it is fireworks night. look it up if you are confused. china stocks are set to enter a bull market. bull in a china shop is what we are calling it. what is set calling it? good morning to both of you. we are seeing a move today for the shanghai composite. it has closed more than 20% above that august the sixth close -- low. it has been quite a year, you needed quite a bit of antacid. the shanghai composite is up 2.7%. it is the second day of gains. investors favoring property stocks and banks and internet companies. this is also lifting the hang seng and asked about 25%. -- quarter of 1%. --ck out the hang seng telecoms have been particularly strong in this session. china unicom up a 6%. china life, life insurance really leading the market. some pressure within the macau casino shares. we will get to japan in a moment. let me tell you about some of the other stock movers to keep an eye on and this session. shares of the hang seng look like this -- the china enterprises index -- these are the chinese shares traded in hong kong. this should get you a sense of what investors are putting your money in terms of chinese companies. telecom, 2.7% advance. industrial is up 2%. key financial movers in this market, traded here in hong kong -- insurers doing well, banks, less so. the financial services look like this. five advance income of zero declining. civic securities -- those brokers that will be doing this increased business from domestic investors are moving as well. -- this is what the shares traded like ahead of that. up by .5%. three at a second quarter operating profit beating in terms of its estimate. they will buy back shares, but they have cut the four-year sales target from 10.1 5 million units to 10 million units. that could weigh on the stock tomorrow. latest on what is generally an update. uop date. anna: japan's general said they are cutting jobs. socgen reported beating estimates this morning. caroline spoke to be socgen ceo. -- run usent numbers through the numbers. caroline: in terms of profit it is a clear beat. it is a solid set of results, 1.13 billion euros for the sales quarter when the estimate was 840 million euros. of course they were troubles in the market, like all of the banks. the equity trading revenue is down 5.5%. fixed income down 23%. somehow they managed to gain ande with the good performance in their french retail bank. the revenues of the french retail bank is up 4.2%. for the the revenues retail bank and france last week actually fell. of the good performance retail bank, it is undergoing a very deep transformation. that will lead to a number of job cuts in france. deputy.what i asked the howarted by asking him challenging was the sales quota on the market. guest: after the chinese situation, we had to manage. this was impacted by the volatile environment. our global market revenues are up 7% and deal -- beating the bearish market. it was a real difficulty. it was complex. globally speaking from the beginning of this year, the global market activities is increasing. 815 million euros cost-cutting by 2017 -- will that be enough? guest: this saving program is a third one. we started by global banking activities in 2012. we adjusted them. continuous -- if i may say, efficiency program. caroline: how many job cuts? guest: level he was speaking we are discussing with our union speaking welobally are speaking -- discussing this with our union partner. caroline: do you think it will be hundreds or thousands? guest: i would say thousands. caroline: is that in investment make or retail? step is 400 job cuts. that would involve corporate banking. a certain part of the program related to other banking activity and france and outer france. that would be in the thousands. caroline: in the investment bank, you do not expect more than the 400? guest: no. we did the transformation to enter years ago -- two and three years ago. there is a plan that involves 20% checking fees, can you confirm that? will be 1.5 billion euros invested in the next five years. being, we put 20% reduction in total branches. caroline: the adjustments of the investment bank have already been made according to be deputy ceo. but the retail bank, 400 branches might have to close. -- 20% of the ranches, according to unions. that would mean at least 2000 job cuts. annex: -- anna: thank you. the world's biggest social media company posted better-than-expected figures. caroline hyde is in dublin. caroline, give us the figures. you have sales gaining some 41%. equaling $4.5 billion. that beat analyst estimates. you have profit driving higher. interestingly though, the users per month, still managing to increase their reach in terms of who is actually accessing facebook. 14% growth in users per month. per day -- get this, a third of all of those, more than two thirds are accessing it per day. that is more than one billion people around the world turning on their facebook everyday. think therefore, of the marketing power that they can offer companies. they can target one billion individuals around the world for your company. this is why they are able to charge more. they have more videos. that is more lucrative in terms of bang for the buck. you're getting the likes of instagram adding 400 million users. many of them are already facebook users. it is a different way of targeting. suddenly they really for the power behind the marketing action on instagram. we get adverts within the instagram feed. they are managing to break -- get more money. if you add interest, for every more --ser they get .4% 24% more revenue than last year. each of us is worth about three dollars to facebook. if you are based in the u.s., you are more valuable. even though they are managing to see asia bring in $1.30. china is one of their biggest advertising market. they still want to access mainland users. >> what we need to do is give people a way to see all of the videos that -- that page they ine or follow is interested sharing. it is a clear roadmap of stuff we will do in the next couple of years that i am excited about. caroline: that was mark zuckerberg, chief executive, extolling the virtues about how they can provide video. guy: [indiscernible] google is naming their parent company out of that to decide what future that's our -- that's -- bets are. facebook is plowing money into ai. there is no money from that particularly as of yet. are betting-- they on drones. philanthropic thought on facebook, trying to connect the next 1.5 billion around the world. they are not getting any money through these new business ventures. you also have virtual reality. oculus -- i have been playing with us. this is what they're showing off after that big deal. still, very little money being made from these. the cfo is saying we are investing aggressively in the future. the next up, with what will they do with whatsapp and messenger. hyde with all things technology. the show astop of you said, central banks taking central stage. super thursday -- we are joined now by ben ritchie. jamie murray is here as well. morning manus. inl carney try to bring market expectations further as to where we think the first type will come through from the bank? if you look at the volatility going in, the market is not convinced they will try to do that. jamie: i think he will. i think there was intent to do that in the august report. if you look at the report, it was above target. because market expectations have slipped, i expect the forecast to be higher. anna: what will you be watching for? he was talking about the new year. what are the clues? jamie: i think he was commenting about inflation. ecb base fx pulling out of inflation and it will leave an underlying inflation measure. the three things to look for our the vote itself, the commentary around it, the next thing is the short term forecast. if they have a punchy number for gdp in q4 that tells you a lot. the final inflation number of the end of forecast is the one that is a diagnostic of the monetary policy. -- withwe would go current market pricing, when would the bank of england have to write a letter explain why inflation is too high. : the market path of interest rates is about 30 basis points lower than it was. guy: on the upside. anna: we will return to this conversation. ben ritchie, we will get your thoughts in a moment. jamie murray, thank you very much. guy: we have a busy day today. it is not just super thursday, we have german factory orders coming out. the bank of england will take central stage. the jobs report is tomorrow. busy day, plenty to talk about. we will return on the other side of this break. ♪ guy: it is 6:30 in london. anna: janet yellen yellen said that a 2015 rate hike seems like a possibility still. the federal reserve chair said a december lift off remained a live possibility. guy: the bank of england super thursday. the bank is due to announce their decision on interest rates. governor carney will also present the final inflation report of the year. facebook has knocked out another quarter of estimates. the world's biggest social network reported third-quarter sales of $.5 billion, more than one billion people use facebook everyday. q3 earnings are out. i do not see detailed earnings, but i do see this german company is raising its four-year guide. toprofit increasing 20%, 2.30 4 billion euros. before your guidance raise will be what people focus on. growth margin increase of 48.4%. headlines guy: where we stand with markets? reporter: still looking at asia. erasing losses from earlier. the big focus is the shanghai composite. i have the chart. have a look. above close more than 20% the august low. heading for a bull market. --saw the shanghai composite will it enter a bear market. you can see it on june 29, ending a bull market. it was the country's longest. the gauge is still down 31% from june 12. sincee seen this rebound august 26 led by technology, industrial companies. a lot of that comes from china's extreme measures to prop up the stock market. six interest rate cuts in the past year. they have restored almost 1.5 jillion dollars in values to the country equities since that august. that is chinese stocks. looking elsewhere what we have seen today is with janet yellen's comments fueling that speculation we could see a rate rise by december. a stronger dollar has meant a weaker yen. the nikkei is heading up two. the nikkei and topics are two of the best-performing equities we see today. anna: we heard from several top officials yesterday including janet yellen. all of them expressing a similar sentiment. janet yellen: if the incoming information eight supports that expectation, then our statement indicates december would be a live possibility. agree with the chair, it is a live possibility. let's see what the data shows. >> we are not that far from the two percent target when the price of oil stops falling. in the dollar appreciates. rosethe december rate hike to more than 50% on those comments. despite one lawmaker's desperately. -- desperate plea. plan is not for things to rise the autumn. that is why we call that fall. to havet god's plan things grow in the winter. god's plan is for things to rise in the spring. if you want to be good with the almighty, you might want to delay until may. guy: it took a while for the smile. anna: he did reiterate on twitter he did not actually think god had an influence on monetary policy. is it a super thursday for the bank of england? what is god's plan for mark carney? will -- we will leave the almighty out. let's return to the conversation with jamie murray. what do you think we will hear from the governor? will he reset market dictations -- expectations? jamie: i think it is a difficult job. him.l sorry for does it matter a great deal? not really. : i think we have to assume in the next six months interest rates will rise. you have to build those expectations into your investment. for us that means being cautious. it is inevitable in the next year that will start to come through. guy: the follow-up to that is how much will they rise? when is the first hike, how much? the consumer will not be that sensitive. the companies you are talking about will not be that sensitive. 100 basis points -- is that going to make a difference? ben: i don't think it will make a huge difference. it is more of the direction and sentiment. especially when you have companies trading as bond proxy. like any short coupon bonds they will react in a similar way. it will shift investor focus. it has been a one-way bet for a long time. will that be the case going forward? anna: we have a strong pound, we are hoping to keep inflation down. that is not so helpful. ben: you have inflation that is low, you have the swiss franc strengthening against the euro. thehe same time you have london economy doing well. regions, theut to economy is not able market -- a bull market. the bank of england needs to be careful what they do in terms of rates. the biggest risk to me is not an inflationary bubble, but a huge recovery. when you go back to the late 1930's, when you look at japanese holocene, that -- policy, that was the bigger mistake. guy: your message to dr. carney would be keep it tight and cautious. any hints today that we will be saying great -- rate expectations is likely to propel sterling higher. ben: if i was in that position i would be more worried about curtailing the economic recovery than inflation. that would be my balance. there are people within the bank of england to think it is more important to establish higher levels of currency. there is a balance. it is sending a signal. it is a question of how much further we go. -- theyportant to pick are all of those facts. my impression is mark carney is cautious. i would be surprised to see the bank of thing when the federal reserve decides. linking the currency conversation at a central making conversation, i read an interesting array today about the plastic pound. there is not very much volatility against the dollar. the cable rate right now. that is because so many people see bank of england policy attached to fed policy. the pound is not being pushed around by the fed conversation. do cvs conversations as linked? -- do you see these conversations as linked. n: when we look to japan with the fiscal using. when we looked the eurozone we see fiscal easing. when we look at the u.k. we could the opposite. it is as simple as that. guy: the commodity story is important for the 5100. that ties us back to the dollar. we are drawing a line between one and the other. been a believer is in global investment. our positions in those areas of the last two or three years have been the wrong place in the short-term. you take the part of the ftse 350 exposed to more global market, the difference between the two is huge. that has been painful. i think in the long term, those are the positions. it would be quite nice to get on with it for the fed. the thing i bring this back to is a bit look at the -- like the gulf war. start?es this star -- the days -- the data can then started firing, it was actually not that bad. it might be like that with the fed rides -- rate rise. the impact is quite modest. it is 2.5 years since the tape tantrum. people have been preparing. anna: thank you very much. ben ritchie, stays with us. are u.s. and u.k. officials now increasingly focused on the idea that a bomb brought down the russian jetliner that crashed in egypt. possibly that bomb was placed there with the help of an insider who was subsequently paid off. the british government has suspended indefinitely all flights to britain from southern egypt. says that and significant pop dust possibility that the crash was caused by an explosive device on board. let's go to our european transport reporter. the u.k. is making what is a fairly big decision on what we hope is decent information. guest: absolutely. this was a surprise. britain is not directly involved as we understand in the investigation. there are some questions as to where britain is acting on extra information we see. anna: which allies are being affected? the foreign and commonwealth office changed their recommendation around this part of egypt. as a result, we have heard from airlines. ,hris: easyjet in particular they would have had four services from london and one from manchester, but stopping all of those flights including an italian one. also british airways and tour operators as well. there is an estimate that maybe 20,000 people may be strode by this -- stranded by this. there is no question -- there is now the question of how they get back. we might see empty planes flying to egypt in the next two days. not taking people out there, but bringing people back. guy: it will be interesting to see how this goes. you talk about the information that the british are acting on. do we have a decode of the black box? when do we get that? this goes to the issue, the egyptian investigators suggest that no substantial work has been undertaken on either the like data recorder or a voice recorder. the data recorder has been recovered and tapped. but the voice recorder is damaged. they said yesterday before the u.k. statement that they would take a few more days, maybe longer to actually extract the copy of the voice recordings. we are really left with other information, other evidence. anna: thank you very much. haveinvestigators can theories, everyone has guesses and speculation. guy: up next we are going to singapore where the corporate and financial world are meeting for the barclays asia forum. we will speak to daniel yergin. he is next. ♪ anna: welcome back. here are the stories you need to know. guy: janet yellen has reiterated her belief that a 2015 rate hike remains a possibility. the federal reserve chair said that a december liftoff remained a quote live possibility. anna: those comments come ahead of bank of england super thursday. they are due to announce the latest decision on quantitative easing. governor mark carney will also present his final quarterly inflation report. been a jump in profits. third-largest bank has appointed a new chairman who past.ed the the news that the fed still considers december for a rate hike will be one of the headline topics up for discussion. the slowdown in china will also behind on the agenda. our correspondent joins us. reporter: good to see you. when you talk about china, you have to talk about commodities. take a look at oil, down 40% this year. some people say the commodity prices reflect the collapse of the super cycle of commodities. let's dig with daniel yergin, pulitzer prize winner. daniel, good to have you with us. what are the prospects of a global economy given where the prices are? shift: we're seeing a from oil, but more broadly it is the end of the era that gave us the super cycle commodities. drop in commodity prices has made us -- made it in the dumps. reporter: is it china? daniel: it is not just china. ,ut if you look at oil growth 45% in china -- it was a voracious appetite. now we have a surplus of just about everything. reporter: what is the new normal. from $140 to $50. have a i think will tough next couple of quarters. the global economy has a lot of inventory. u.s. production will go down. respectl come back in to oil in the spring. we will not see the oil market back in balance until late 2016 or into 2017. weake in this week time -- period. you see u.s. promotion -- production going down. reporter: but how? daniel: so much depends on global growth. it is doing that rebalancing you could see it dropped temporarily, but basically the market is now in the process of recalibrating to the new realities of supply and demand. reporter: you predicted $40 oil. and into the crystal ball help us see where oil prices will be in the next year. seeel: i think we will prices -- no exact number, but we will see this time next year, market. of a firming up we start to see demand stronger. i think the key questions from me about oil prices and a key question for people in general is what is this telling us about the future of the world economy? is this a symptom of general weakness? is that the u.s. being a strong economy? who will call the shots? reporter: this is a cycle. when do you see it recovering. daniel: it was depend on different commodities. you see companies trying to deal with this. economy isthe world on a 3% track, if we do not go into a global recession, we will start to see an improvement. a lot of companies are in pain right now. reporter: the biggest concern for commodities would be -- daniel: the state of the world economy. what we are seeing and china is a transition from an industrial economy to services, or is this really the fine of a greater weakness that will permeate the world economy. that is what has people on the edge of their seats. reporter: daniel yergin, thank you. speaking to us at the barclays agency. anna: thank you. guy: let's bring back in ben ritchie of aberdeen asset management. commodity, the slowdown, the concern, we had the worst u.s. reporting season for a long time. our -- our corporate earnings delivering in the way that markets are pricing? ben: probably not. it is tough. the engines have supported earnings growth for a long time. when you look at china, the u.s. domestic is finding it tough. in the u.s. you have the additional problem with currency. you will see that this morning with european up -- reports. mainly because of fx and the weakness of the euro. i don't think it is disastrous, it is not easy. mightf those easy wins open branches -- that is come to an end. i think it is difficult. it is not horrible. it is just tough. anna: is there a story away from the currency story? german businesses are upgrading their outlooks, they are just europeinesses, is playing that catch-up game with the u.s. earnings story? ben: you have companies that are more global. typically speaking, u.k. companies are more global in their outlook. they derive more on revenues from outside the continent. where they're doing that, they are fighting life outside of europe tough. when they look at their developed businesses in europe, generally speaking, things are doing better. when you look at companies in domestics, they're doing better. when you look at the u.k., you perkins,ts from travis those businesses are doing well. u.s.,ou look to the domestic demand is not bad. around the edges you have things like shale oil. it is amazing how many companies -- you know about that oil business -- it is down, that takes four or five points off of operating profit. i am a u.s. investor and i want to put money into europe, how much of that will be eroded by the fx it -- hit? ben: it is impossible to say going forward. if you are a u.s. investor, it is a concern for you. you have to anticipate that you will see an element of fx decline. it is compensated because it depends where the corporate are making their money -- where those corporate's are making money. guy: if i want to invest in it could take the edge off of a game i see from a european upside. ben: there is definitely a risk. those people are looking at strategies to mitigate those exposures. that is front and center of their mind. anna: are you buying into european businesses selling into china? ben: for the investor that can afford to take that 3-5-year view, it is unlikely to see commodity prices -- i am probably wrong, that you would see them go down another 50% from here. if you could find businesses exposed to trends, if you look , ifeports from astrazeneca you can access those at good prices, it makes sense. anna: thank you. guy: astrazeneca numbers are up. see you in a moment. ♪ it is super thursday in london. to yellen reiterating a chance that the hike in rates is in the cards. ms. yellen: december would he a possibility. the shanghai composite set to go above its low. increase in profits but jobs will go. >> there will be job cuts. >> you will it be in the range of hundreds or thousands? >> i would say in the range of thousands. anchor: i'm guy johnson. anna: welcome to the second hour of the program. hand over from the asian equity session. janet yellen. comewill see a fed height december. in terms of where we are placing things, and european equity wekets indicating a flat -- have just had, back where we can rare going to open this morning. fair value out of the terminal. all over the place. anna: all over the place. for the possible rate hike. we look more mixed. good for germany. not a lot of good news, really, coming out of germany. more. factory orders down. the estimates, that economists ed were expecting an increase. not sure how that will change ecb thinking. bundthe pundits board -- board be on board? q3a: mining, all the details net income. a drop from the $58 billion the previous time. expected to be weaker. / on track to achieve guidance. options to expand. gold price expanding -- retreating 12% over the last year. hitting.bers astrazeneca.at for the estimate was 1.01. we're looking at the core operating profit, beating estimates of one point six $9 billion. a measure used by the country that excludes some costs. the second-biggest drugmaker for the u.k.. are facing isthey the lock of patents for some of the biggest selling drugs. that might give investors some hope. the stock so far has been underperforming. health care index down. back to you. been oft's bring in aberdeen asset management. let's hit your thoughts. coming in ahead of estimates. was the key metric to look for? the key drugs you are focusing on? then: it is about the longer term. of movinga strategy back to growth. growing in japan. investors, a $45 billion sale. is not going to be the be all and end all for the company. pipeline and delivery. progress on how they are bringing products through the pipeline. the rotation of cost's. out of operational costs. think they have a good chance of delivering things from investors. the promise of something uncertain in the future. if they can get close to the targets, investors will be rewarded. anna: thank you. the 2015 liftoff is still very much in play. before the house financial services committee, the federal reserve chairman said a december a live possibility. ms. yellen: what the committee is expecting is the economy will continue to grow. to return inflation to 2%. if the information supports that, our statement indicates december would be a live possibility. we have made no decision about it. anna: a representative urged her to hold off until spring saying forces favored a may come at 2016 hike. is not for things to rise in the autumn. nor is it for things to rise in the winter, through the snow. god's plan is things rise in the spring. theou want to be good with almighty, you might want to delay until may. anna: just a quick word on astrazeneca. they have raised total revenue and eps. more details coming up. on super thursday, that is what investors will be trying to figure out. the minutes. the quarterly inflation report. let's go down to the bank of england. mark barton outside. back to you. mark: excitement building outside the bank of england. wells, the chief u.k. economist and by itself. a good morning. when it comes to excitement, might be potential excitement he within the minutes, the split? 8-1 split. an >> it does feel like a big day. works in the vote. christian has been sounding hawkish of late. she may join, possibly martin. >> that would be fireworks. >> they would react to that. we expect to see sterling rise, short-term interest rates rise. it could stay 8-1. if they are going to raise rates, they want to send a signal. >> you are saying, fed be wary. first quarter, second quarter. the market, november. how does the bank mary expectations and your expectations? >> they condition their forecast on the market curve. cut they get their data off, the market was flat. they might say, inflation above target. the reason why we are still keyg for february, is the indgment they made august. >> pmi data has been strong. manufacturing. services accelerated. that is third-quarter gdp results. you cannot get away from it. was that the low? an anomaly? disappointmenta for people looking for february rate rise. strength and services. if we think, that is strong. in q3 from construction. that could bounce back. .6.ink we will get a rise from where we were. >> how falsely is mark barney and his colleague looking? one eye at the fed and above the ecb? how is that influencing what they are going to do? important.is they could raise rates without the fed. always going to say that. i think it is good to stay close to big brother. tighten, if to the economy slows, they will get the blame. they will stick close to the fed. >> the fed goes a december. to be oe goes in february >> that is what we think. we think the fed is telling us most of them want to go in december. > the second pole of the day: the chief economist at hsbc. simon, going for february. the first half of next year. that is how it is looking. see you later. guy: your guess, fed plus two. the market is pricing fed plus nine. anna: a wide range of views. from the bank of england. lot on the macro calendar. the germany number. one month. shows a number against an estimate, an increase of 1%. how concerned are you about the growth engine? what has been happening in china and emerging markets, the data can be volatile. i wouldn't read too much into one month. when you see what is happening, it is probably not that surprising, there is some pressure. >> how does that change the thinking with europe? the europe growth engine? spain? manufacturing its abilities are the heart of any sort of european economy. what we will be looking to is inflation. with the central bank will be doing. at this data. saying, that is concerning. i will be looking to be looser. anna: does week german data of the case for more quantitative absolutely. try: is the knee-jerk reaction more qe? of more andbackdrop wider policy has to be positive. that is what we have seen. we wouldn't look and say, that is bad. as we were talking about, the impact will have on currencies. not a one-way bet. -- euro and what will story comesthe around china. the stock market in china, on the verge of a bull market. it did. we are talking about the underlying weaknesses in the economy. we blossomedave out? >> you have to be careful looking at the market in relation to the economy. i think you have seen a huge amount of stimulus. bank reserve requirements. a range of fiscal measures. it will take time before the economy impacts what is going on in the ground. investors want to see the impacts happening right away. we know the lag is six months-12 months. we may see the impact. you can see some of that needed a. a stabilization. anna: thank you. find out what we are talking about. zeb eckert from hong kong. his ad: what a difference a few months makes. look at this. up 20%. order, closed on the 3000. 87 on the shanghai composite. stocks above 20% of the august low. you look at a one month basis, you can see, in the past month, shares up 16%. a remarkable move by the government. intervening using extreme measures. deposit moves. a host of strategies to arrest the market slide which they have done successfully. take a look. all sectors are rising. hadhealth care sector downward pressure. filtering through to hong kong. listed.talks u.s. snapshot, hong kong nearing a close. market unchanged. insurers doing well. hsbc. top stock movers. telecom, a bright spot. in property related shares. big movers to the downside. let's check in on other markets. one stock we were watching in the market, to caught up. in tokyo, if we can get the screen to come up. because they are down a whopping 20%, there is concern about the ability to move forward. they have doubts about their survival. recall in automotive history. checking in on some song. falling. a 10 million third-quarter loss. airlines, trading higher. under investigation for official corruption. we are watching it closely. tracking down, continuing. the effort to catch tigers and flies. on a day when the markets did well. guy: thank you. a 28% rise in third-quarter profit. income at the second-largest bank up from 82 million a year. ceo.ing to us, the deputy jobs cut as part of a restructuring process. there are job cuts, operating investment banking. to bankingted activity. and in france. order of magnitude of thousands. anna: we will be hearing more from the interview later. guy: 7:18 and london. let's update you on the stories you need to know. anna: janet yellen has reiterated her belief a 2015 rate hike remains a possibility. decemberhair said the list off remained a possibility. guy: series of declines in september. orders adjusted for seasonal extremes fell from august. 1% gain.te for anna: the biggest social network reported, more than one million people use facebook every day. guy: third-quarter profits and sales, down. the man sitting next to us is happy. the ceo of the business. you are making a profit. easy place to be. you must be happy with the numbers. >> we play at a at 1000. we should be making a profit. capital.t cut making a profit. we are never impaired. when you reference us to the industry, we are profitable. anna: when you're talking about your plans, you are talking about positively. you are talking about a new production record. opportunities.t >> that is the point. often, the gold industry plans and then struggles to survive. boldis a time when you businesses. memory.i uy: this is a jd to use your input into the mind. some people thought it was a done deal. just an option. the point is, they gave us the opportunity to look at it. if it was a slamdunk deal, they would have done it themselves. never made money. big challenges. a world class the challenge we have is can we convince , with anglo gold, make it into a world-class mind. 20% return. >> what would it be that you would bring? bring our gold business differently. we are -- we run it as a business rather than and i'll look it or of capital. returns for our shareholders. that is the difference. >> you are a guy that likes to get his hands dirty. janet yellen. making it clear a fed hike is still there. the dollar could strengthen on the back of that. what are you thinking about? the exciting thing about gold. whichever scenario you put forward, it is good for gold. if as you predict, things will go back to utopia -- guy: i'm not predicting that. a >> you will take a lot of production out of the market. it will tighten the market. a big demand. city demand. is alle likely case these green shoots people grasp on keep withering away. it is hard to see the economy get back to the late 1990's. what you need to do to push the gold price down, because it is insignificant. everybody is making money. commodities were relatively flat but the rest of the world was in good shape. i don't see that. s pullingyou see other back? price, at your share you have doubled, outperforming other gold companies. not a bad performance. do you think some of the weaker players are going to die away? brexit i think the industry has to reinvent itself. too much debt. you are in a phase where everyone is producing gold to service debt, not to create value. that cannot go on forever. we have seen the first mine stocks closing. producers, they have the biggest challenges of all. see thection is we will sale, we will sell all the bad stuff. eventually, you will see survival mergers. that always comes with cutting the unprofitable production. >> you are still waiting to do more deals? >> big thing is, success is always about the things you do not do. we have so much capacity to take on something. it is frustrating for us. we are a strong addition. i would have thought there would be opportunities. they are not visible yet. 100 i am looking to the top shareholders. that wouldything produce an argument for getting into commodities? e are cautious, about what we can and cannot control. we like to invest in the type of companies. they know they are in a better position than their other companies. what they are producing. a strong bell on street to understand they are a cyclical business to read 2011, long-term perpetual growth, that is not the case. withant to invest i businesses that understand it is cyclical. >> the fund managers themselves up are trying to survive. we are not a worry for them. a bit of pressure because we have value. that is what they are saying. keep doing what you are doing. we have other things. weaker oil price giving you one less thing to worry about? x i think that is true. we will take the lower oil price, thank you very much. particularly because the cost of oil. it has been great. it has helped. >> thank you. great to see you as always. the ceo. timenk you for spending with us. guy: up next, speaking to the european commission president. his outlook on the state of the european economy. that is next here on "countdown." an hour away.lf we will talk you through that when we come back. ♪ seaso guy: 7:30 in london. need to the stories you know. anna: janet yellen has read iterated her believe a rate hike remains a possibility. the chair said the latest possibility was a live possibility. guy: this comes ahead of super thursday. the bank of england likely to amounts -- announced decisions. mark carney will announce his quarterly inflation report. cut athousands of jobs the retail bank. part of the transformation program. at second-largest bank france reported a rise in profits. to 1.3come climbs billion euros. guy: 29 minutes until the european market opens. london looks like it is going to open slightly negative. germany looks like it will be a little bit softer. a flat open. what we are going to see. anna: meanwhile, the barclays asia conference in full swing. attended by some of the biggest names. haslinda, over to you. haslinda: the fed trying to add to europe. making headlines. , it is lackluster growth possibly the best prospect they have seen. the question is whether it is for real. the former prime minister of portugal. good to have you with us. are you buying into the growth story. ? i think europe is going to continue to grow. in fact, the growth you had the for the financial crisis was artificial to some extent. it will not be spectacular but we will continue to grow in a .ustained manner you me --da: they said juror germany was the heart of the economy. they are going higher than germany or britain. spain, growing at high rates. germany has been spectacular all these years. the biggest economy to date. britain is in the right direction. >> a have been talking about leaving the eu. from your perspective, what are the chances of that happening? there were suggestions -- the difference between the euro area, where we need more integration. if you share a common currency, you need more integration. that is what we have been saying for many years. we need to keep all the others, to keep the market. the biggest economy in the world. 500 million people. the biggest market in the world. we don't do the internal market. these are good ideas. it is always difficult to predict. i hope the british will remain in the eu because it is such so important. haslinda: what can they say to stay? >> they are trying to address some of the concerns. please vote yes. britain, pie mr. cameron. they want to state. but they want to state if they can show their concerns have been addressed. europe is not just about slow economic growth. the issue of the migrants. can that be a common solution? >> the decision-making is complex. you have to understand that. the crisis, unfortunately, the drama is in the middle east. it is good to be in europe. the possibility of prosperity. they come to europe because europe is in good shape. haslinda: most of the countries are seeking to close their borders. as winter approaches. >> it is going to be incremental. there will be a distinction between refugees and migrants. the capacity to achieve those refugees. one or two. the discussion. merkel, she took the right decision not only from the world. also from self interests. they need more workers in europe. either they import workers or exported companies. they need more people. some is resistance in quarters. far right. they are going to adapt progressively. haslinda: before we let you go, the measures adapted to the ecb. have they been enough? >> they have taken the right desertion -- position. they have to monitor. if they can expand their programs. decisions were right from my point of view. from economic and other wins of you. this tuition is difficult to predict. regarding the raising the rates. natural, they will keep the situation under close monitor. will the fed -- >> if you ask my opinion, i haslinda: will react 25 basis points? in makes sense for the u.s.. it is better to solve this issue then keep these anxieties regarding this? it will not be so catastrophic as some people say. i will say they were probably do it. i'm no longer in official capacity. haslinda: thank you. back to you. anna: joining us from singapore. guy: they have confirmed they are cutting thousands of jobs. earnings this morning. beating estimates for the first quarter. let's find out what is going on. speaking to the deputy ceo. what did he have to say? it was a solid quarter. up 28%. net income 1.1 3 billion euros. they had difficulties because of the turbulence in the market. income down 23%. they managed to compensate with a gain. especially with the good performance. both inside and outside france. in germany, the czech republic. revenues, up 4.2%. deep transformation in france. to go with the digital resolution -- revolution. here is what they told me about how me job cuts this will lead to. >> we have announced in job cuts covering investment banking opportunity. related to retail banking. and out of france. this would be -- >> they have committed to reducing cuts bite 850 million euros by 2017. no deep cuts in the investment bank. most of the cuts will come from retail. they may reach a couple thousand. having to close as many as 400 branches in french. another business? are they also announcing job cuts? largest bank -- third-largest bank in france. income, they had a better earnings from the performance of the things. take. announced job cuts in 2011. as -- in, as many france. now they are not announcing anything new. they are looking at reinforcing ties with their lenders. one thing may have in common, they are currently selling shares in an ipo. stake, hoping to raise 1.7 5 billion euros. they will have them for the third quarter. euros.a 19.2 billion ins november 11. the largest asset manager. back to you. anna: caroline connan joining us from paris. guy: stock down sharply. a 106-year-old company facing and existential threat. anna: they threatened to shut down is they did not get shareholder funding. they could become the biggest casualty so far. shareholders voting on whether to proceed with the debt facilities. they would have to cease trading. this has take implications for the south african economy. we are employed. with a 20%ountry unemployment rate. could have a big impact in south africa. how it ends.ee >> the commodities spike we went through. look at it. closing my laptop to show the you the kind of decrease we have seen. looks like a spike. stock price, a record. cial is the biggest so media company. caroline hyde. facebook has their international headquarters there. talk us through the signals we got from facebook. >> they are stunning. we are seeing sales up 41%. $4.5 billion. profitability on the rise. user base, that continues to grow. this number always stuns me. people use facebook. 20% of the world's population. they are logging into facebook every single day. global reach, luring in companies. more and more videos to us to help us share. a creepy thing is how targeted they are. they are unleashed the power of instagram. 400 million users. another way of targeting. not only is it targeted, they want to make it more targeted. that is what mark zuckerberg was saying. >> we need to give people a way videos the pages they like or follow. are interested in sharing. a clear roadmap of things we are going to do. things i am quite excited about. when you are able to target the right person, you are able to charge a higher price point. for each and every one of us pro-folio, they make three dollars from every individual. they make more and the u.s. and canada. china, one of the biggest advertising markets. the company, the exporters, working with facebook to interest the rest of the world. interesting fact there. mark: in terms of what investors see, a long-term and short-term story. caroline: when you are managing to earn yourself a market valuation, you have to keep on showing how you can grow and improve. this is a long-term bet. they are improving their opportunities despite that's, -- they areat putting all the money into their philanthropy. ringing more, one billion people online. giving money, not giving them anything at the moment. artificial intelligence, another big that. not making lucrative money. neither is a virtual reality. purchase they made, oculus? saying it isrg going to be a slow burn. the key questions, messenger. or's.d nine euros a significant amount. when will we start to see those being advertised and monetized? still not making much of a dent. back to you. anna: caroline hyde joining us from london. -- dublin. guy: stories you need to know this morning. anna: janet yellen has reiterated her belief a rate hike remains a possibility. the chairs said there is a list of possibilities. guy: this comes ahead of the super thursday. the latest decision on interest rates. as well as minutes. governor carney will sit down and talk about inflation reports. anna: astrazeneca has raised earnings forecasts. beat estimates. third quarter for our needs also beat estimates. $1.03 per share. guy: a few minutes away from european market open. what stocks are going to be moving? let's find out. to talk about have been called higher. let's start with southeast asia in the secondease biggest bank for friends. the consumer bank where profit rose. that offset those gains. offset a slump in trading, not just equity. first talk i am watching. astrazeneca. the u.k.'s second-biggest drugmaker. third quarter profit beat estimates. they faced a setback last month. they failed to win u.s. approval for a diabetes drug. some ofhe challenge of the patents expiring. its drug beat estimates. the company raised earnings and sales forecast for the year. another company, upgrading their four-year guidance. that came after third quarter profits beat expectations. .nna: thank you you guy: we get minutes, the press conference. an opportunity to talk to general ryan. how is he going to change expectations >> inflation is below zero. it is hard to see with the inflation pressures are that support the case for a rate rise. we go back to 2% one way or another. and: what do you see the him howlings about dark covers ages between the fed and bank of england. they will see the bank of england can move whenever it wants. it will not move before the fed does. you are talking about janet yellen. a common view, once the fed moves, that clears the way. guy: six months. not until we get the first hike. that withoutdo damaging the u.k. economy? hawkish, amore change in the voting structure. you had a strong pound, fiscal tightening. those are going to drop out. you have strong wage pressures. the bank attuned to the idea of not getting expectations dislodged strong consumer spending power. if growth keeps is accelerating as it has been, does the third-quarter results. there is some scope for carney room forhere is a inflation pressures. anna: he will be back, talking about how unemployment falls. wages go higher. fresherall the global -- pressure, does the bait think they will produce higher inflation? >> he talks about record employment. the lowest since 2008. it is curious. you do see some elements and economists say need structure of the economy has changed since the financial crisis. at how thisu look the bank ofwork, england thinking is why. let's go with market rising. the first hike, months away. would it be before inflation got to the point where the bank would have to write a letter explaining why? written a letter we are going to see today. well above target. it has to be about target for three months. we are nowhere near that right now. if you look at what the path is prevent the bank of england, what it looks for. you have to look to-three years out. the commodity prices drop out. i'm not going to give you a date. guy: even if the market is right, we don't get massive inflation pressures for a while. more visibility at the turn of the year, apparently. a dissenter or two. >> the same at is one. some economists say two or three. anna: we will wait and see. thank you. fored us with a look ahead what we will hear from the bank of england. that will do it for "countdown." . astrazeneca upgrading guidance. us wendeserving about will be taking a press conference. we will have that live for you. a busy day. super thursday. morroew.see to ♪ jon: good morning and welcome to on the move. let's get straight to your morning brief. the federalvention, reserve keeping the rate hike on the table. follow fedor carney chair yellen? and the shanghai composite is back in the bull market. they rebound from a $5 trillion stock rout. those three stories will dominate the next 60 minutes. ahead of the open, so many corporate earnings stories. let's get your morning market open with nejra. ajra: an life possibility of -- a live possibility of a rate hike in december. aaders are now pricing in 15.8% probability. let's take a quick look at the dollar. ever souch flat, slightly higher. after yellen spoke, we saw it hit its highest level since august. we can see it weaker against the dollar. and as german factory orders unexpectedly dropping a third consecutive decrease. according to a berkeley -- barclays survey, it is ecb policy driving this more than anything the fed says. we have had gains in

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