Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20151012 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG Countdown October 12, 2015

And how that will work its way into the week. Asia is a flying at the moment. Shanghai is at the front on the moment. The asian market is delivering, but what does that based on . We think it could be based on a lot of chat around the market. We could be saying further stimulus from beijing. It is interesting because you can compare and contrast that with what is going on in the west right now. You can see on the shanghai composite, a nice move this morning. We are up 3. 5 . Let me show you what is happening right now with u. S. Features. What we see at the moment is a negative story. Lets focus and a p are. S p tradingw and negative. The are not down by much. We have a lot coming up throughout the day. This is what Stanley Fischer has said overnight. Participants myself and is a pay to that achieving these conditions would entail an initial increase in the federal funds rate later this year. He cannot take december off the table. We will get a lot of commentary throughout the rest of the day. Charles evans and lyle are talking late into today. Into thatoing on story as well. The asian markets are fascinating. Glencore is suspended. We will get more on that at 7 00. The asian markets are on the front foot. Lets get to david ingles and get that story. David good morning. You mentioned expectations. That being said, we are looking at two things. Lets get to the emergingmarket currencies here. The fed before the end of the year, mike jack rates up. Might jack rates up. There are two sector groups. Consumer goods and health care were up, roughly speaking. Keep in mind, japan markets are closed today. Roughly speaking, we are up ofugh to offset the weakness the australian session. The big market story of the day. We are coming up to the lunch break. We do see strength coming off of that break. Tom came out, he is a veteran technical analyst. He was able to correctly predict this drop. And of course, it rallies. He came out and spoke to bloomberg and what he is saying is that the shanghai composite may actually rally to 41 hundredths before the end of the year, before dropping to 21 hundredths. Very quickly, the Malaysian Ringgit alluded to this. Let me get to the oneday charge. Some risk onseeing trade when it comes to the equity market, it is these same stories across the currency states. We see weakness here. Back to you. Guy thank you very much. We just heard chinese stocks are rallying today on expectation that we make it more stimulus down the way. We are watching what is happening with the fed. A long with the timing of the rate decision. The discussion of the economy is dominating discussions. Spoke to oneua finance minister with a chinasarly keen eye on finance minister. When it comes to china and an Australian Point of view, obviously, china is our most important trade relationship. That is very strong growth by international standards. We are very supportive of the withny of chinese efforts the move from investment driven growth to more sustainable domestic consumption. We understand there is a process to go through. , goingoptimistic forward. Guy the australian finance minister writes, it will be a very busy week this week in terms of the data we will be getting. Consumer prices come out wednesday. In the u k, inflation day is u. S. Ay and the Industrial Production is friday. Jpmorgan, bank of america, Goldman Sachs, and citi all this week. It is a busy week. Mma story. About the we understand they are planning to pay 30 a share. Caroline hyde is here with more details. Be aine this could recordbreaking deal for the tech sector. Some 33 a share. But dig into the details. We could see an 18 premium on emc trade. That is in excess of 60 billion. 25 billions 25 billion of cash. This is a Virtualization Software company. Holder, a biggest Majority Shareholder in vmware. Toy will give protections the likes of emc stockholders. They will it short that they get a certain price point if there is disruption and the market. Stills what they are negotiating. This is what is taking them long into the sunday evening. The boards of these companies. Mgnt seeking the emc deal. Lets look at what is in it for dell. The privately owned company taken private by silver lake and michael dell himself. This is what emc really is. It is about driving in to storing and managing data, making it more lucrative. Diversifying it from just a away from the pc market. They will dig into that more lucrative era of enterprise. That is where the money is. Create one of the biggest providers of computing products. This is what we have got to keep a keen watch on. We will get the detail of the price. The deal is in the works and has been for the past week. Dell will need cash to pump into this to be able to pay the 25 in cash for the company. Highyield limitations. The high yields markets have started to slow off. On the banks. And then sell that to highyield debt holders. Will that be a concern for the market . Bonds of emc have been dropping. Dholders are buried about are worried about whether this will put them lower in the food chain. They want to sell more bonds. Will they get lower down in the food chain . Will they ranked lower to the new that . This is what is dropping emc bonds of the moment. Meanwhile, reports and other companies right now, in other newspapers, there could be a go shop provision. Will emc be able to put themselves out. Can they go to the likes of hewlettpackard . Could it drives that 33 a share even higher . Is that what Elliott Management wants . There are many things to work out, but this could be a recordbreaking deal. Guy caroline, thank you very much. They marks the start of london Metal Exchange. Percent so far this year. The industry players are gathering here in london at the conference. The copper andth coal ceo. He said copper prices will drop further. If they do so, they are playing a dangerous game. We are not trading on fundamentals. Atre are a lot of shots selling copper. Remember, they decided to change the rules and relation to the equity markets where people were no longer authorized to short sell. Therefore, we have a series of players who have used copper as a property for the chinese economy. Today, we are not give the price resistance. Are, ine prices relation to the cost curve. Of thatbring you more interview later on the program. What else do we have coming up on countdown . We think we will get an announcement on acid sales at glencore. We will break that story down for you when we come back. Guy 6 1 five in london. Good morning, cure of the stories you need to know. Stanley fischer says the economy might be Strong Enough to merit a rate increase. Expected to announce today, regarding emc. This will be the largest ever technology merger. Emc alone has a market capitalization of 53 billion. The trading of glencore stocks have been halted in hong kong, pending announcement regarding assett stocks. Glencore has not identified which assets might go yet. Copper minesnd are in reasonably good bet. Asia has the mental and mining reporter talking. David, what has it said regarding the trading in hong kong thus far . David as you said, glencore has not said a great deal yet. We do know it has halted its stock in hong kong trading ahead of announcement of details australia. Assets in in chile, they are related to a proposed asset. Last month glencore outlined its Debt Reduction plan. It would remove to dog 2 billion from its sales. There are potential mental streaming deals. Glencore has assets in australia. It also produced its Precious Metals and minds in south america and australia. Both of those options appear on the table. Can you explain what a streaming deal is . We may have to talk about this later in the day. David sure. Theaming deals are aimed at sale forward part of its production. Tech resources in north america have announced in the last couple weeks streaming deals. A company to reduce the debt on its Balance Sheet. Companies areese looking to shore up their Balance Sheets. That i guess, is the motivation for glencore. We know there are buyers out there in the market looking to do these kinds of transactions. It would look to be a good fit at this point. Guy thank you for your coverage. The commodities theme today. Today marks the start of five days of events at the london Metal Exchange, ahead of the conference. Jeanssebastian. We asked him about china, which of course, is the Worlds Largest copper consumer. You said, china accounts for 40 of the copper consumption. Remember, there were steel mines in mongolia. We have a 2 million copper trade with china. But i look at my customers in china, do they have issues in raising the credit . The business we do in china is based on credit. Yes when youre ago. We were very careful. But today, i am not concerned. I believe that the Chinese Government has the will and has the financial means to sort of the issue, if there was an issue. The past, look at they have a track record of doing so. Is,last piece of the puzzle pmi and so and so forth. Look at thet weeks, metrics. They are moving in the right direction. When i look atn, my ability to place a product, do i have issues today . The answer is, absolutely not. One of the key drivers for the copper consumption is power and industry. Yes, today china is a very important customer. Up. Ill pick it will take, as you said, 10 years down the road or 20 years down the road. Im not concerned about copper. Ansebastien jacques joining us from rio there. They have the first Party Last Night in london. Chief Energy Correspondent was of course, there. Glencore is dominating. Absolutely. There are mostly about two things. One, because of the cuts with copper and zinc. A lot of the traders i have already spoken with you last they are saying getting letters of credit and getting the customers in china to buy copper. Guy it is getting increasingly complicated. What is the expectation . What is the view of where things go at the moment . Will that have a meaningful impact on those predictions . Where do prices go from here . I think when you look at side you have glencore. In on the other, they are trying to refinance the market. Commodity prices are going to go lower. The dollar is going to strengthen. In china wilma perform. Everyone in the Metals Industry is asked, will you agree with glencore . Yesterday of the parties, most of the parse of the tents arrived in london most of the participants arrived in london. Can i say that . Is it on demand expectations . The market set up at the moment is really quite curious. If you think there is going to be a chinese intervention or something is going to happen, and the possibility of a squeeze and the assets is definitely there. How much do i need to think about fundamentals . How much do i need to think about how the market set up is working at the moment . The look at copper, we have a surplus. The commodities including oil, we have a surplus. The market will undo the what is happening next will anticipate what is happening next year. Is, we haveing already more than an idea of the companies reacting in the investment plans to the low Commodity Prices. Companies have cut with production. We have seen this with glencore. As a production cuts. Asset production cuts. It is very much, if you take a snapshot of the situation, today, you can you are looking at how the market is going to be looking into the First Quarter and first half of next year, then the situation potentially could improve. You could begin to think the current prices are at lows. Guy does the week have a different five . Have a different vibe . I think there are two things very different. One is china. Potential. S a remote people are worried china could go into a recession. But what of beijing lost control of the situation and we go into a recession next year . I have never seen the industry talking so openly about this. Have a veryaders bad first half of the year. It is a complicated situation in the alumina market. Aluminum market. Turnaroundn a lot of , a of traders moving. Some of them are leaving one company for another. Guy what are the implications of the latter . The market is in flux right now as you start to see people move around. There is a story in asia this morning. When you start to see that kind of volatility inside businesses. I tend to think that when we see this kind of movement, trending jobs, creating new businesses, Companies Cutting production, that is the mark of the bottom. When people are losing their jobs, that is when they rally. L e, weu look at the have probably already seen below. The lows were probably already there. It feels like we are worried about what is going on. Maybe what you are missing is the recovery. Guy thank you very much. Bloombergs chief Energy Correspondent. Coming up, a guest who describes the markets environment is a world turned upon its head. The chief Investment Officer for the u. K. And eastern europe. Here after the break. London Metal Exchange week, always fantastic. And industry in flux at the moment. What does that tell us . Right now, we are pointed at a negative open. They are 30 minutes away from finding out how europe will open. We think it will be a negative open as well. Commodities are front and center today. When car is a company these guys will be thinking about. Glencore is a company these guys will be thinking about. We will be back in a couple minutes. Guy it is 6 30 in london. 7 30 in brussels. Stanley fischer says the u. S. Economy may be Strong Enough to merit an Interest Rate increase by the end of the year. But he cautioned that policymakers are monitoring the job scope and international develops as they decide on the precise timing of the liftoff. The largest ever tech merger in history. This is pending the 37 billion deal. This is currently the biggest at 3 billion. 43 pounds a share. That is still the low the target price. Below the target price. Agree onompanies must a deal. Wednesday,o that by or the transaction will fall apart. What do we need to know about the markets . Caroline hyde has the details. Caroline interesting stuff going in the markets. Looking at china, we are on a roll. They are excluding japan at the moment. These chineseat stock rally. We are driving higher, more than 3. 7 higher. That is for the past three days. The shanghai composite is working today. It is putting in heavy lifting. This is the highest close in three weeks. The reason there is so much buoyancy and the Chinese Market is based on stimulus. Steps the the government might take. Still seegly, we do perhaps, a little bit of weight put on futures in the united states. Put int of the optimism china, when you are looking at the west stocks, we are looking at a down day because of what Stanley Fischer has been saying. We could see a rate hike this year. The dollar is currently continuing its way downward. Percentwn by 8 10 of a when youre looking at the dollar. It is the lowest in almost one year. The least confident that the dollar will strengthen, despite that talk from Stanley Fischer. It seems the fx market is not buying this talk. We could see a rate hike as soon as this year. It is interesting that the dollar continues to weaken. One Asset Classes moving all of is the turkisht lira. It is dropping against the dollar. The turkish lira is losing value at the moment. That is linked into those tragic events that happened over the weekend, with the deadly terror attack. Guy thank you. 97 people killed, the worst attack in the country. Lets go to elliott who has more. Still no official claims as to who carried out the attack. The government is pointing the finger. The terrorist groups in turkey are the prime suspects. Lets not forget the turkish government is waging a battle on two fronts, against islamic states that is over the borders anin i raq and syria. At the same time, as it joins the fray against islamic states, it relaunched its battle with the pkk. Within hours, the Turkish Air Force carried out strikes against pkk positions. Also within hours, the cleared and international ceasefire to the run ups of the november 1 elections. There are reports coming out of turkey this morning of a city and in the main the kurdish southeast having been killed by the pkk. Some very tense times in turkey. Some in the company in the country are blaming the government for the very least at not preventing this attack. They had some kind of hand in this, to try and sway the upcoming elections. The fact of the matter is, we do not know for sure who carried out these deadly attacks over the weekend. We do know, there is a political situation in turkey. We have got elections coming up again in november. Presumably, this will have a meaningful impact on that set up as well. It is hard to say what impact it will have. That depends on developments here on in. The intact suggests the results of the november 1 election will be similar to the one we had in june. In other words, deadlock. Of winningbe short an absolute majority. It will have to engage in coalition talks. That will be very tough in the wake of these attacks in ankara. The crisis summit with the onlyition leaders will have 2 out of 3. One declined. We of other reports coming out today saying that last night, assailants smashed windows at a party office in east send bowl. This is in the wake of those attacks. The turkish lira is declining this morning as well. This is still a very human story. Turkey is officially engaged in three days of mourning. About 20 people were killed in the deadliest attack there in history. Guy thank you very much indeed. Is really caught between a rock and a hard place. This is a massive factor in how the markets are viewing it. D is very much in the forefront of many peoples minds. The imf bank meeting yesterday. He for it closed, Francine Lacqua sat down with the former boss. B what th

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