I am manus cranny. We are waiting for the numbers. With bated breath. You have the carlsberg numbers. When heineken comes down we can go to that. Carlsberg has cut its fullyear profit outlook. The earlier forecast was for adjusted net income to rise by low singledigit percentages third what they said is adjusted net income wont fall by midto high single digit percentage. What we care some much about carlsberg, not only because it is the worlds fourth biggest brewer, russia is its biggest market. What it says about russia is fascinating. Market volume in russia down by 6 7 in the first half. Its market share has fallen sees8 basis points and it the russian beer market down by a high singledigit percentage. Its earlier forecast was a midsingledigit drop. Revenue threatened by Political Tension over ukraine. The weakening global and government efforts to curb drinking. Well come back to carlsberg in a second. Heineken is all yours. Can i be a seamless as that . Firsthalf consolidated revenue comes in slightly ahead of market estimates. Operating profit excluding items 1. 4 5 billion euros. The estimate was for 1. 32. It beat on operating profit from heineken. Ew byic revenue gr 4. 6 . It is a different story with heineken. All of thevirtually trading has gone into a global basket called russia. Diversification is the hallmark of heineken. 60 of operating profit comes from emergent markets. Tern u. S. And the u. S. Western europe and the u. S. For the driver in the first quarter. 1. 5 4 billion euros. The estimate was 1. 32. Drivenlume rises by 3. 1 by growth in africa, middle east, the americas, and western europe. Inroved performance trend the Second Quarter in the asiapacific. We have a group euro volume rising by three point root beer volume rising by 3. 2 . That seems to be the overall topline. It is interesting you mention emerging markets. What carlsberg is trying to do is push into the likes of a ship to make up for this week are russian markets. It is pushing into asia and New Territories to try to plant supplant the pressure from russia. We have seen a gain in market share in asia and also it sees the asian beer market in line with 2013. Western europe, which is important i think it accounts for 58 of its sales. Beer marketeuropean will be slightly down. Asia, share gains in europe is flat. The Growth Outlook coming from heineken a expect a positive Volume Development over the remainder of the year. A different story to what your guidance is on heineken. They targeted a year on year improvement of operating margin of approximately 40 basis point. Margin expansion is expected to be above median target. Carlsberg as to cut. Heineken, where would you be without it . Two very different stories and it is all down to russia. I will check into that number and see where i can find the russian element. Lets talk about the challenges facing the beer industry. Lets go straight to hans nichols in berlin. Did we leave you anything . It is like you guys have drank the entire beer and left me with the dregs. I have not heard mark barton this excited about talking about. This early in the morning. Rs. Is about longer lage bitters man. Barton is a bitters man. Sales in western europe are flat. A trend that you would see it western pickup for heineken because the dutch and german team did so well in the world cup. You see a little bit of a world cup affect. They had a pretty good spring in western europe. That did not happen. We can read into that. You can say france did not progress that far, spain did not. Those are big markets for heineken. In terms of the world cup affect, we are not seeing a huge impact on that. The weather plays a some impact. Weather was not great in russia which is why you saw carlsberg down. It is mostly about geopolitical headwind and currency. In theecast cutting into high digital high digit single digits. These are difficult numbers for carlsberg, the worlds Third Largest brewer. Heineken is fourth. If im wrong, i expect art and rton toect me ba correct me because he is a man who knows his beers. He does indeed. Well put. Hans, we will come back you. We have two great interviews today. Bloomberg will have the first interviews with heinekens ceo live from amsterdam. I will be doing that interview in over an hour. The carlsterview berg ceo later on the pulse. The bank of england released their minutes from there latest policy committee meeting. Barton and i we have been mulling it. I will give it to you. I know you know the stats, but i will share it with our viewers. We would look at the last time there was dissent. To put it cleanly, since carney took over there has been no dissent. We have heard 3d meetings before dissent. Before carney, we have had 36 in total without dissent. The last dissent was in june last year when three members voted for more qe. Marvin king was among them. They were outvoted by the majority. When talking about rate, the last time officials sent it was 2011. Martin well and spencer dale voted for a court appointment. The last time the mp raised in 2007s back when six members voted for a hike. We have not had dissent since 2011. Today could be significant. It is almost a year since we had Forward Guidance introduced by mark arnie. Mark carney. A great deal has been made of the Inflation Report. Underemployment gave scope to hold off on raising rates. Myday times ruined brunch. Carney said it was something that might tempt us to raise rates. Yesterday, 1. 6 . There is a great article written on bloomberg view. It is called calling mark carney. He has moved from an unreliable boyfriend to a fox in hedgehogs clothing. That means the hedgehog focuses on one critically important thing. For example, unemployment. The hedgehog changes his mind and focuses on something else. A fox is something that looks at different parameters. I think the cpi data was the biggest shock. We have had a bit of an argument this morning as to which one of us will talk about the range of use. Hawkomiter. E zero means you are a dove, 10 means you are a hawk. It seems that the boe is balanced. We will have a guest from union credit who will take us o ugh the hawkom hawkometer. Wide range about a of use. We have not had a wide range of views. To see a dix terrorists central banker is he a dexterous central banker or is he someone who does not know where to go . They change their focus and they approach us with a general approach to rates. If you change what you are looking at so often and and up misguiding the market, how in the name of goodness can you really tell the market to trust us . We are united in the gradual approach. On the matter of change, we have had three new members on the mpc. We have had the Deputy Governor joining us in july. Kristin forms is an external member. There is a view that the changing of the guard slows Division Within a central bank. Will they have initially the central bank go against the governor, who clearly wants to keep Interest Rates low for longer . Many think they wont, but we shall found out today. Twonteresting change women on the mpc at the moment. Still to come, a reliable boyfriend. Ofancial group and head strategy Stephen Gallo will be here. We will see do them after the break. Welcome back. I am manus cranny. Time now for company news. Charter will be paid 300 million for failing to flag suspicious transaction. They had promised to report transactions as part of a settlement. Apple stock closed at an alltime high as the company prepares to unveil new products including a wrist watchlike device. Investors hope that products will jumpstart revenue growth. Share,ose to over 100 a topping the record from september 2012 just before the iphone 5 went on sale. Citigroup is considering exiting Consumer Banking in japan. The japanese broadcaster nhk reported. The bank is reviewing its options. Citigroup gets most of its International Revenue from america. Thefter the meeting of Monetary Policy committee to rates unchanged, were there any dissenters . We will find out at 9 30 london time when the minutes are released. Stephen gallo joins us now. Thank you for joining us. Manus and i were discussing there have been 36 meetings of no dissent on Interest Rates. As that long time come to an end . Possibly. There is a risk that one or two crewmembers of the mpc voted for a hike in august. What the hawks might say at this juncture is that asset price bubbles could use the economy to do that. They could jump in on the debate about slack. I dont think anyone has a firm idea of exactly how much slack is left in the labor market and how much Spare Capacity there is. Wages have been going down, which is something the doves wages have been week, i should say. It is something that the doves can lean on. You do not know how much slack is there. You do not want to be behind the curve if they start to pick up. That is the message that he was saying in the sunday times, mark carney. We could raise rates ahead of a pickup in wages, which led many to accuse him once again of being a flipflop or. You are more supportive of carney and the way he communicates it. Hiking rates in the near term would be hedge of the view of the doves of wrong is wrong. Icarneys rhetoric think the u. K. Economy has done exactly so far what the boe, what he wanted it to do. He has gretchen dared he has engineered a gradual softening of the market, higher market rates, and he has kept cpi inflation contained through the stronger pound. That mitigates the risk that something really goes wrong in the Housing Market with asset prices ahead of the may general election. I think it looks pretty good for him. Using a combination of things like rhetoric, market rate expectations, sterling, that is getting your hands dirty and that is using variables to your advantage to bring an outcome that you would like to see. Managed to disrupt the market throw a little bit of confusion into the market, but warning that rates possibly are going to raise. Do not be surprised when that happens. The thing about where rates would be today we have seen it in the bond market because of geoPolitical Tensions. Think where rates would be if we did not get the june spike as a result of the Mansion House speech. Those lower rates could provide further juice to the Housing Market. The macro prudential tightening ushered in last year. That could abate if the geopolitical situation improves. That is right. To bring it back to the currency, you have mentioned sterling once or twice and there have been postMansion House, we had the spike in sterling. We got some back. Is sterling oversold . I think it is a better buy point 65. 55 and one 50. Is thetening in sterling situation and balance of payments and provides insurance that inflation does not fall too low via the pass through and import past channel. That is where i think we are in the moment. We will come back to in a moment. Stephen gallo. We will focus on fed minutes and thee released jackson hole meeting taking place over the weekend. Welcome back to countdown. I am manus cranny. With us is Stephen Gallo. Lets get right to one set of minutes which come out a little bit later which are the Federal Reserve. Weve had it from charlie plosser. Voices of dissent from fisher. What are you thinking . The overall measures from fed normalization is not really going to change until after quantitative easing ends and we see how the economy and Financial Markets adjust to the fed from thethe system. Slack is still a major issue. Andink there are staffers ratesetters are looking at the economy in the realtime like they never have before. No one has a firm idea of what is causing low wage pressures, what is causing the dropout of people and participants in labor force. That is part of janet ,ellens dass board work 7. 5 million workers who want parttime work that is raising the number of unemployment. Those dominant in your thinking . What if the gaps between labor and capital is widening because there has been so much focus over the last decade and a half on earnings per share, on share price appreciation so that now labor, in terms of how it is compensated for the work it does in the economy, is just looked at with less regard . That is something that is important. It is not related to the typical technical factors that Monetary Policy or a ratecenter may look at that. Janet yellen addresses jackson hole on friday. She is expected to say there is plenty of room of improvement in the labor market. Mario draghi also speaks at a key lunchtime address. Will he address fears of lack of growth and muchneeded to leave . Needed qe . They are waiting for measures they have announced rigorously to feed through. The t l os are a big issue. In the nearterm, i am not sure there will have been time enough for him to announce anything substantial on friday. For them to do more in the near term, i think they need to extract more reforms out of paris and rome, evidence that they are pushing through Structural Reforms to get the bundesbank onside. Outlook for europe in the meantime . I think the eurodollar will be more supportive than the consensus believes. More resilient. I think divergences is popular in the market because of its theoretical simplicity as the u. S. Grows more, the euro should therefore we can. I think the divergence story overlooks global interdependence. The spillover effects of the situation with russia and generally weak growth in the eurozone spills over to the United States and affects the feds in the u. K. , you said. I think the economys feed on each other very much. Another factor which i think the story ignores is dollar outflows. They will, and support Global Growth in the form of a wider u. S. Trade deficit over time. We are going to leave it there. Great to get your input ahead of the minutes. Stephen gallo. 6 26 in london. Welcome back. I am as cranny. I am manus cranny. We wait for minutes from the bank of england. We will go to the asian currencies. Dollarwon has fallen the most in a week. What will happen with jackson hole . Will yellen me the call . The dollar is moving in that is why you are seeing the move in emergingmarket currencies. Overseas, investors are buying more stock. You are just off the onemonth 1015. 59. Lets have a look at eurodollar. The overarching theme is one of dollar strength. That is the baseline upon which you are looking at this. You are just off a ninemonth low for the euro and a ninemonth high for the dollar. Goldman sachs says the positions are moderate, supporting a move that the flow of money is about 20 of the overall positioning. It does depend on how hawkish those minutes are from the Federal Reserve this evening. Matsui says that the dollar continues to be a buy. These are the top headlines. Argentinas president is asking pass a bill that on americana rule debt repayment. Argentina defaulted last month. Credit agents sued for full repayment rather on the discount been discounts suggested by argentina. In egyptianbrokered truce in the gaza strip has expired. Rates have and air killed at least three. At least 50 rockets hit israeli territory and israel struck at least 25 targets in gaza. Airlines are on alert as icelands biggest volcanoes shows a sign of corruption. Delta is among the carriers concerned about the busy north atlantic group. Interruption in 2010 cosan ash cloud that force carriers to cancel 10,000 flights. A recordo linde where 19 nobel prize economists are gathered for their annual meeting. Chancellor Angela Merkel will be delivering a keynote thspeech. Great interviews yesterday. Thank you very much. If it looks cold, it is because it is. I wont complain because i am very excited about the day i had. Let me give you a feel of what is on the agenda. Employment the unemployment. Everyone seems to care about wages, the money in your pocket. I am sure everyone is happy about that. How much can Monetary Policy do about it and how much improvement after we seen since low Record Record low Interest Rates have been there for the last seven years . What can Monetary Policy do . On ayou look at people lower income, they have not seen any growth at all. People on higher income have seen growth. What does that mean for inequality . Is that being exacerbated by Monetary Policy right now . That is a number two big theme. Inequality and the market dynamics. I have big guests to talk about it. Mark and i have already covered the bank of england. I know the fed and that dotmatrix are your favorite subject. The minutes are later today and janet yellen leads the proceedings at jackson hole. Issue of matter . Bernanke was not making speeches over one or two of these meetings. Crisis, the financial that became a meeting for the rock stars of central banking. Bernanke would come along and drop the policy bomb. The big hint about what would come next on the Monetary Policy side of things. This is a meeting that matters. Look at the title of this meeting. It is reevaluating labor market dynamics. Janet yellen and her colleagues have a decision to make. They have to look at the labor market and decide whether the issues are structural or cyclical. If they start thinking these issues are structural, there is not much the Federal Reserve can do. When she talks, you have to look for clues for the way she sees the labor market. That will give you a heavy hint about what will happen with Monetary Policy. Not as big as it was, but a meeting that matters. We look forward to that interview and the rest of your guests from linnde. In itse turns its results. 1. 9 billion. For more on the challenges of the mining industry