Hello, welcome. I am mark barton. A warm welcome. Bloomberg reporters are standing by ready to deliver stories for your day. The pressure on fefa to investigate the world cup bid. Hans nichols is in berlin to juncker have a chance of leading the commission. To the mat sat down diplomats sat down in a in an have a ceasefire. The president says he wants an end to the violence by the end of the week. The question is is that actually possible. Its a question i put to the russian president over the weekend. Have a listen to part of our exchange. Not a candidate to any other position. I think it is a relatively important job at the moment. We need to keep helping countries out of the crisis. Now that you have had this meeting. You have met president obama. How likely is a ceasefire in ukraine . What will you do to achieve a ceasefire, and how quickly do you think a ceasefire can be achieved . Needs to be done immediately. They need to immediately stop pin it to operations in the southeast. So far no one has said anything to them. No one has proposed anything at people dont know how they are going to live, under what conditions, what the parameters will be. There is no conversation about that. There have been arguments and roundtables, but no one invited any representative from the southeast. The situation needs to be radically changed. The president ial elections in ukraine are over. We need to start working with people. Odds that athe ceasefire can be achieved in ukraine . I think the ukrainian leadership must show its goodwill and wisdom. To immediately stop the military operation, immediately announce a. Easefire there is no other way to create conditions for negotiation. X whate it is all about ukraines Central Government has to do to create the conditions for a ceasefire. He doesnt mention what he is willing to do, which i specifically asked him to create the conditions or with the separatists should do. This is not an answer key of or the west will like. President obama was specifically saying he wanted putin to exercise influence in the east. Right, and the russian line is we have no influence. They maintain the veneer the separatists are operating on their own, but what he clearly doesnt do is call on the separatists to put down their arms. Be tough going to negotiations. I think the new president of ukraine has a pretty ambitious byget to have a ceasefire this weekend. There was a man with an icy stare. No doubt you shouldnt have asked that. That was the president spokesperson, and he was clearly not praised it please. I was told he had his arm on me. When i get into the zone. Thank you very much. Junckers bid in sweden. The discuss who will lead commission. Our International Correspondent joins us. Party won the european elections last month. To be one of the nominees, or is he going to walk away . Rex the longer his name is out there, the less likely Jeanclaude Juncker is going to be president of the commission. It gives his opponents time to find a compromise. Time is not on his side. Neither is gender. You are hearing from the british it is time for gender equality. What name tossed around a lot is christine lagarde. She definitively took herself i have ae running. Job. To anyt a candidate other position. I think it is a relatively important job at the moment. We are not out of the crisis. We need to continue helping countries out of the crisis. The imf is a Strong Institution that needs to continue going forward. Participate in that. One problem, the opposition is clear. Sweden, holland, also italy is not overly excited about the haveect. He doesnt someone championing his cause. That should be Angela Merkel. His party won the most seats in the parliamentary election. What is Angela Merkel actually thinking. It seems she actually supports him. She is willing to sacrifice for the larger goal of keeping David Cameron happy. What else is on the agenda . There will be some talk on benefits, about how you streamline the process and make it harder for citizens from Different Countries to get benefits in the country where they are residing. Is another part of the reforms that are so essential for him to make the case at his referendum that i am sure you guys are talking about a lot up there in 2017. He needs to have certain deliverables so he can make the case the u. K. Is better off inside rather than out. Three of the biggest corporate backers have expressed concern over the new allegations against the way footballs governing body awarded qatar the world cup. Our editor has just gotten back, and he joins us. Sony, adidas, they are adding pressure, the sponsors adding a to hold anfef investigation. They havent gotten the choice but to carry out a full investigation and to disclose the findings. Lets not forget what these are. Alleging they were senior qatari official had paid bribes to people voting for where the next world cup would be held, and as a result was trying to buy those votes. Now they are saying he had a 5 Million Slush Fund which he used to pay out rhymes. Its important to know the qataris say they denied these allegations completely. He said there was nothing to respond about, but clearly the and thesors of fefa world cup are not happy. Sony says they expect fifa to adhere to principles of fairness across all aspects of operation. Adidas has said the negative 10 or of the debate is neither good fifa. Otball or until few weeks to go this kicks off. No one wants that to be overshadowed. The type of conversation they would want taking place. Some of these partnership deals go back decades, dont they . Very much so. It seems unlikely these massive corporate sponsors. There is also cocacola and all long of others who have a association. Way to spendat their money. Ib does has recently expanded until 2030. It seems unlikely these big sponsors are going to drop out although they may continue to exert pressure on fisa one way or the other. Will there be a recall of the voting for the world cup . If these are proven. The qataris deny these allegations. Ifa toould be up to f decide what sanctions to impose. The former u. S. Prosecutor Michael Garcia is due to hand the report to the Ethics Committee next month. It will decide if there are grounds to act. Ifa took to fe twitter, saying to let the Ethics Committee work. If you check out the responses, you will see what value many people out there attached to that. Rip you words i can here. Very diplomatic. Think you very much. Disappointing Global Growth and policy mistakes in europe. Our next guest says those are just three of the key risks to investing. Find out the other three when read return when we return. Japans economy grew. 6. 6 was the actual final reading. What was driving it . Business spending. Consumer spending also. Bear in mind this is the first quarter. It was before the sales tax rise. That was the reason why growth was so strong. The concern is if it is so strong it could be even weaker than forecast. The concern was how it could impact the Second Quarter. Topics were really quite low. The figure is strong. They are looking forward to the Second Quarter reading. Thank you very much. His ninthas won french open. He is three behind. He has got 14 grand slams. Will he overtake fedor were federer . Yes, he will, but is he better . Erer played, so i would argue his competence competition at the time was far more varied. Isnt there enough football that you have to bring up tennis as well . Thank you very much. What are the key risks i need to be aware of . Our next guest has come up with we thought we would look at the risks and we could delve into your thinking. Global growth disappointment. Crisis in emerging markets. And geopolitical risk. Is there a number one . There is. Do with complacency. I think people have short memories in general and more so when markets have been as strong as they have. The combination of servile ua shins in certain areas and market complacency, which gets priced in. It is in a sevenyear low. It has come within two points of an alltime low. Every Time Starting with those levels, the markets are going to do well. I am not saying were going to see a massive repricing. Think its always difficult can we position ourselves for . Olatility yes, we can. On six give you options equities index. If the market falls it wouldnt at the same time this is about making sure we dont lose money first, and things always take care of themselves. What are Interest Rates telling you about where they are in global rates . It was global rates disappointing . Or is that going to happen . Especially in the u. S. There is a big reason why Interest Rates in the u. S. Have been shocking investors. A lot of big investors have lost a lot of money. Growth is notat as strong as it was expected to be at the beginning of the year. Recovery which is not sustainable. Part of the weakest recovery we have seen versus where we were. Lets be careful. Asset prices are still but not the place to lower the guard. We dont really like cyclicals yet. I would say these irrational expectations make sense to us. You might see some normalization. Fundamentalst the you would have more than you have now. Let us not just think the fed will be here forever and ever. Talking of expectations, spain, world cup . Your expectations are high. I am much more confident. And more confident on the Football Team than spanish equities. Thank you very much. 7 22. They are unveiling a new tesla model to break into the u. K. Model. He has one feature he is betting is going to be of particular interest. Find out what it is next. Time for company news. Reof three of fifas biggest corporate sponsors have expressed concerns about impropriety. Visa issued, and statements. Sony attempting to turn the playstation 4 into an entertainment powerhouse by developing a Virtual Reality headset for the gaming market. It will be unveiled at the electronics and attainment expo today. Oculus,f competition is the Virtual Reality goggles pioneer acquired by facebook. Switzerlands secondbiggest bank is considering additional stakes in an interest trading unit. Credit suisse is seeking to trading asd income more businesses conducted electronically. New capital roles limit the leverage the banks can have. Heard of a honeymoon bounce . It has to do with the unlikely link between the world cup in the equity markets. We will explain in a few minutes time. Also what the future holds for ukraines Independence Square. It is still occupied by protesters, but the new president wants to change that. We will be back with more on both of those stories in just a couple minutes time. Stay with us. Welcome back. Lets get a check on currency markets. Caroline hyde has the fx check. Im focusing on the yen. We have japanese growth at 6. 1 . Faster than had been expected. There is more optimism about this pace of growth. We have china showing growth. We have the United States showing growth. Maybe a little less demand. Currently the euro again not much of a change today, but it is at the three week low versus the euro. We are seeing movement out of the haven, particularly considering it has a smaller current account and anticipated. It is less than 2 billion. Bet year after year this would be a country that would post the current account surplus. Foreign capital they needed it less. This is a country of savers. They havent had to borrow from Foreign Countries to be able to service their huge amount of debt. They are looked at as a haven. The surplus is getting less and less. Currently we see the yen weaker, close to a threeweek low against the euro. These are the top headlines. Roughly on the doll raphael beat djokovich. The most important tournament of the year. The bid to be president of the beenean commission has dealt another blow. Swedens Prime Minister is voicing his concern about the process. They are hosting the leaders of germany, holland, and the u. K. Today. David cameron has been threatening to pull written out of the e. U. If juncker is pulled out of the job. In ukraine the violence must end this week. Porsche ago was sworn in as porodent or shank go shenko was sworn in. Peace talks are underway. Time in london is 732. Ukraines Independence Square was the focus of the revolution that ousted viktor yanukovych. The square is still occupied by protesters. Ryan looks at how they plan to reclaim this. Kievs Independence Square is a living monument to revolution. A bastion of people power were ukrainians united to overthrow a corrupt and unpopular president. Our last president is a very bad man, and all ukrainians want to kill him. Last winter hundreds of thousands of ukrainians gathered, embattled in battles with the government. It was the second time in a decade protesters occupied the square. Yanukovych is gone now, and the new rulers brought to power by the very revolutionaries say they must go. They have served their purpose. It may even be a threat. Division. There is the election of a new president , it should slowly go away. Independence square has done its job, but the government hasnt. We wont leave until they deliver on their promises. The main battleground for ukraines new president is in square hashe main already become a challenge in its own right. After Petro Poroshenko was came to the Police Remove the protesters but were sent away. Now. An joins us ukraines president has his hands full. What are his big challenges . Is Biggest Challenges the fighting in the east. He has to solve that. Then he has the economy set to retract. That is based on diggers done before they the fightingcause is done in the industrial heartland. A sixth of gdp comes from there. They dont like their leaders they are used to throwing them out. In effect they brought him into power, but they could throw him out as well. The big question is can the violence stop. Many would say that is a real challenge. A lot of people would say it takes two to tango. I have asked what is he prepared to do for a ceasefire. I asked the separatists. All he could say was what the Central Government does. Football and economic stood usually appear in the same sentence. To walk through some of the findings. They should be mentioned in the same breath. It would be great television. What is the link between the world cup and stock markets . Have you found whether you are the runnerup . There is all kinds of speculation about who wins. Statistical history says you might as well wait and find out. There seemscountry to be a sentiment boost that you get. It doesnt last that long, probably three or four weeks. Virtually every time over the last three or four decades a country has won their stock market has had a rally relative to the rest of the stock market. Is there a fundamentally between hosting the world cup and economics of the country . There isnt a very strong one. It costs a lot of money. Its very difficult to really find the statistical longerlasting legacy. Difficult to identify those. Think will who you be the winner. Winner e a short window. That is what most people expect. Our model is based on looking at the history of International Football matches going back to the 1960s. We have about 14,000 observations. Firmly as aazil safe haven. They benefit from being the host team as well. Im sure your model is terribly sophisticated. He is off doing his own thing. All of this comes to the same conclusion that result, argentina, and spain will be the final four. First of all the probability when you are outside of the top seven or eight tends to fall dramatically. Very difficult game to predict. Thats why its a beautiful game in many ways. Like are lots of things injuries and how many cars people get. This is an interactive model we will update as it progresses. Its a very lowscoring sport compared to many others. Very difficult. Predicted sachs england wont get past that group, but its quite close. It wouldnt be surprising if they got through, but they are just outside the top two. You are saying italy and uruguay will progress. Thats what we are saying. Whats wrong with you . Your report you talked about football and economics, how we will always remember who won the world cup that we will never remember how the economy fared that year. The question is how was the british economy in 1956. I now know. 1960 six or atws least people in england do. Hes to be quite integral to this report, but i quite like the fact that he is no longer producing this report. You are free to declare allegiances to other teams. Other teams exist apparently . One of the questions you posed in your big report pieces when will china and india play in a world cup . Within the next decade or two or not . It is still so dramatically dominated by the european and south american teams. When you look at the probabilities, the rankings are very dramatic. It is growing in interest. Each time they brought in the spectatorship and the interest outside of those regions. There is something for the real nerds in your report. You have a report of the threat of disinflation of gold and the importance of land as a factor in production. That is a thesis topic if i have ever heard one. Is there a dark horse from your perspective . To might be the dark horse win the world cup . I would say maybe theyll belgium. One of the better european teams. You focus on the crisis in spain and the restructuring up spanish football. We since the global or financial crisis has taken its toll on funding . Team i understand was given big incentives to win financially. Huge amounte is a of focus. We have seen the winning team tends to get a boost. I think it does give a shortterm boost. One of the other interesting findings is the runnerup tends to see a slump in confidence. You tend to get the stock market underperforming. When you look at it performance wise it is up by three percent. It has come off its march low. It is creeping higher ahead of the election. People are thinking they might actually have realistic challenges. I