Paul manafort has denied the New York Times report. Ukrainian president. Trump delivered an address focused on fighting islamic terrorism. Mr. Trump the time is overdue to develop a new screening test. I call it extreme vetting. I call it extreme, extreme vetting. Our country has enough problems. We dont need more. These are problems like we have never had before. Charlie we were taping this program before his speech. Joining me now from orange county, california is hugh hewitt, host of a popular conservative radio program. Also joining us from washington, d. C. Dan balz, the chief , correspondent at the Washington Post. I am pleased to have both of them at this time. Hugh, tell me. I am fascinated by how trump continues to get in the way of his message. Is that in his dna . Hugh he does, charlie. It is an inability to stay focused that has hurt him this month when he could have been reproducing. We were obvious he have to read what the reaction to the speeches tomorrow. I hope he doesnt step on his message. He gave a great speech in detroit and then made off hand comments about the Second Amendment and stepped on his message of economic renewal and massive tax cuts, and that was lost for the entire week. Today, the home of the man who invented the penalty flag. It is in my backyard in the steel valley of ohio. He will try again to reset. If he stays on message, he can be very successful. For reasons we can talk about at length secretary clinton does , not have a great record when it comes to stopping isis, but he has got to make sure she is the focus and not some sidebar he ignites. Charlie is it too late to do that, dan . Dan it is getting very late, there is no question about it. The whole he has dug is wide and deep. The poll average was six points plus. That is not a close election. Look atleground states for him at this point. The Electoral College forecast look bad for him at this point. You never say never in a campaign, but he is really running out of time. The problem is, politics is the game of addition, not subtraction. In all sorts of ways, he is blocking access to his candidacy to people and groups he needs to go after. It is because of what is hugh said. He creates these diversions from his real message. He carries out these fights, grievances, he continues to try to litigate long after he needs to worry about them. So there is just a lot he needs to do. He cant be somebody other than who he is but hes got to find a , way to be who he is and stay on a message that is and focused on Hillary Clinton. Charlie you believe that is a winning message, dan . Dan i think it is a possibly winning message. We have talked about this before. We are in an environment where people are looking for change. They are not happy with the status quo. They are not happy with washington. They are not happy with the way the political system works. They think something dramatic needs to be done to shake it up. And donald trump, in many ways, is the candidate who is best positioned to do that. Hillary clinton is an establishment candidate. She will carry on a continuation of policies that we have had for the last eight years. Many people like those policies, many people dont, but he cannot be the candidate for change when he is talking about everything other than that. Charlie that is exactly what you believe, isnt it, here . Hugh . Hugh i was thinking when dan was talking, he did a piece for the post on sunday that summarized the crisis that exists. It is all unforced error. I believe donald trump had been 10 points ahead had he began to execute a purposeful, message driven, targeted at the underclass in america, the working class in america, the lower class in america who feel left behind. I have always said he is a tractor beam for those who are despairing. There is a hot book out there. Hillbilly elegy. Charlie we know about it, yes. Hugh it is about the working class and the dysfunction, almost sense of hopelessness that has absorbed communities and States Donald trump needs to carry, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan. Dan just alluded to this. It is possible still to energize and encourage that group of people and say to the coal miners, i want to put you back to work. And to say to the automobile manufacturing plants which are empty in michigan, the steel plants that are closed in ohio we can repurpose those plans and plants and bring back jobs. It is very late in the day. It is not over. The debates still matter. But boy, it is late. As dan wrote yesterday, it is very late. Charlie is this his message or does hessage understand the disc content of those people you have been speaking about . Hugh i think he appropriated it. I think its years in Reality Television brings him into touch with people who are eager to succeed. He is as much a populist figure in the way that populist figures have been before. They are not of the people but they are very much in touch with the people. I would also point out, marco rubio is far ahead in florida. The republicans arent getting blown out. There are Organization Structures in the states that trump can harness to his advantage if he chooses to do so , make some appointments and make some gestures in that way, but it is up to him. Charlie dan, do you agree . Dan i agree up to a point. I think hugh is right. In the senate races, the republicans are not getting blown out. At a time when the republicans are performing weakly in those states. Hughs point, there is a dissatisfied electorate out there, but trumps problem is, whether there are enough of those white bluecollar workers to actually win the election. My hunch is that there are not. He has to go beyond that. If you look at the polling, the most important thing, there is a gap that has opened up between those with College Degrees and those without College Degrees. In the white community, donald trump does extremely well with those who do not have College Degrees, but he is losing in many places among whites with College Degrees. That is a departure from the way republican candidates have performed in the past. He doesnt have to win them overwhelmingly but he has to do better than he is doing. He has to do better with women than he is doing. He cant get blown out in some of these areas in the way that he is getting blown out now and still hope there is a reservoir of the disaffected White Working Class that can put him over the top. Charlie hugh . Hugh in 1968, there was volatility. I believe we are in an era of volatility. Milwaukee could have gotten worse. Hopefully it will remain calm. As california is entering fire season, so america is entering political fire season, there are these debates, the events in the middle east and crimea, where there are troops massing on both sides of the new russianimposed border, syria where the genocide goes on, and indeed across u. S. And urban america, lots of stuff can happen. That is why i am reluctant to say, even if mid rolls around september and donald trump is down by 10 points, i do not know of black swans whether there is not another one that would descend in the stretch run. Charlie theres also the risk that something could come out about Hillary Clinton because of the release of the emails. The fbi interview of hillary. K hangseat question mar over her. Dan she has not been able to put that to rest. She has recently made it worse or brought it back to the forefront with her interpretation of what f fbi said as opposed to what , most people think he said. Those revelations may and will continue to haunt her all the way to election day. The question is, are they clearcut enough to change perceptions or are they in the area of murkiness so people who have already made up their minds stick with which side of the ledger they feel is talked about . That is a problem. We go back to donald trump constantly. The issue is, in one way or another, he is unable to keep the focus on Hillary Clinton. In fact, he does the opposite. He draws attention from her weaknesses and vulnerabilities and brings it back on himself. When things happen to her, they become less of a story. Charlie you had an interview with donald trump. You said to him, as i remember, you said something like, i clearly understood what you meant when you talked about obama being a cofounder of isis. You meant the deal he made for american troops to leave iraq, and that had led to the resurgence because of how the shia government treated sunnis and all of that, and al qaeda came back. That is exactly what you thought he meant. Dan i was sincere. I believe the president lost the peace in 2011. By the precipitous withdrawal of troops and secretary clintons failure to negotiate an extension of the status of forces agreement. We have troops there today, so it never made sense, but we left. Into that vacuum came the Syrian Civil War and troops flying the black flags. I thought he was ready to give us an argument. He said, no. In fact, as dan just alluded to, in that same interview, we talked about a nigerian lebanese billionaire whose money has a it comingdor around from the nigerian dictatorship and has had to pay 300 million to the Nigerian Government to avoid criminal charges in the past. There isnt email from the clinton foundation, help us out. We need help for him with money. She writes back this is the , ambassador. Charlie ambassador or former ambassador . Hugh i think it was the current ambassador that he offered to intervene with. The former ambassador now has it, i never got the call. They have done some repair. Nonetheless, what donald trump ought to have done is not yell at the New York Times or the Washington Post but speak , the name gilbert again and the trap for the media not to investigate himself or his press approach, which i have argued with him is counterproductive and not in the american tradition, but instead he put the attention back on himself, not on mrs. Clinton. It is just a mistake. It is campaign 101 not executed well. Charlie one more time, why does he do it . Hugh if you are the star im beginning to think his greatest strength in the primaries, the masterful use of television to make yourself a center of attention and every show, the 12 debates that we did, that same ability to make yourself the center of attention is not something he can turn off. It is a permanent on switch. That is what makes for great tv and wonderful primary runs. It does not make for a great general election campaign. Charlie you said, dan, trump had to expand rather than subtract. Can she expand . Does she have the potential to appeal to the economic insecurity and discontent that is part of go ahead. Dan she certainly has tried. I think from the start of her campaign, she has talked about about a principal focus will be to raise wages for all americans. Wage stagnation is an important issue. It has created some of the economic insecurity that we see in a lot of parts of the country. She has talked about an economy that works for everybody. She has not galvanized that issue. She certainly has not galvanized that constituency a lot of that , constituency, the white iskingclass constituency donald trump, but she has the ability. If you look at the last few elections, the Obama Coalition to the degree she can reassemble that, is a coalition that get you over 50 and over 270 electoral votes. She has an easier way both to get to 50 in a head to head race or to get to 270 electoral votes. His path is very difficult. So of the problems he has right , one now is if you look at the polling nationally and a number of the battleground polls that have come out, her percentage is about what she needs among democrats, 90 , 92 . His percentage among republicans is not close to that. In some cases, the high 70s to the low 80s. He needs to bring that 90 incan support of the order to be truly competitive. If you see that number moving up, not just creeping up, but moving up directly over the next few weeks, then this race will look more competitive. But until that happens she will , have the advantage. Charlie do you think donald trump has Ronald Reagans charm . Hugh he does not have his charm. He does have even more training in the art of television. I believe there is a good chance that secretary clinton will not debate because her lead is so substantial it is not worth the risk. We saw him in the debates do this time and time again, via a tax on moderators, candidates, speaking directly to camera. I dont see the upside debating him. Reagan used those opportunities. I think donald trump will as well. That sheyou imagine wants to get away with that . Dan i dont think she wants to. They have already put out a statement the chairman of the , campaign, saying they will accept the terms of the debates commission. There will be the three debates that are already set in terms of the dates. They will abide by the formats. Donald trump has not yet done that in an explicit way. There are indications he will dissipate but he has not , explicitly said he will show up on the three dates on the calendar at this point or will accept the terms under which these debates are held by the commission. The gap at this point is on trumps side. He believes he won the primary season debates and is an effective debater. He dominated those stages when there were a number of people on the stage with him. A headtohead debate with Hillary Clinton will be different, but he has demonstrated that he knows how to handle himself, so i think it would be on his interest to be on that stage for all of those debates. Charlie my guess is he knows that and everything he says or they are saying are simply negotiation. Hugh i agree with that. Charlie people close to him have said to me that the problem , or one of the problems with donald trump, is that everything is a transaction. This has become part of the conventional wisdom. He sees everything as a negotiation. Whatever he says, goes back to how he spent his life, which is basically starting at one place and hoping he will end up somewhere else. Hugh i think when we look back and dan writes his book about the campaign he is the , developer, and he has always been a developer. I have represented large land developers. Everything is a negotiation. Every rule is permeable. Can be changed to a yes. Every acre can be recaptured. So everything donald trump does is based on a lifetime of success in development. I am believing he is approaching the debates this way. Trying to get a larger audience. Trying to remove a rather dead hand of the omission on this because it is rather boring, and they ought to get rid of that town hall format. There is an element of negotiation. I still think Hillary Clinton 1972li Richard Nixon from and walk off and wave goodbye to these debates, because there is no upside for her. Charlie usa today says young voters are fleeing ronald trap. Donald trump. It shows clinton beating them, 56 25 . In the democratic primary battle with bernie sanders, she have appeal to the young voters, but now against a truck, she does. Hugh if i can sum it up, millennials dont like mean people. Bernie sanders was perceived, it is not an age thing, they dont like mean people. Donald trump has been perceived as being mean, and millennials free from that. I think that is the long and short of it. I dont know if dan agrees with that. Dan i do agree. We did a long piece. There were a number of us talking to young voters. We found two things. One, they are not wild about this choice. They dont find either of these candidates particularly inspiring. On the other hand, they find donald trump a lot scarier and a lot less appealing than Hillary Clinton. Our reporting bears out the polling, which is that they are going to go in big numbers for Hillary Clinton. I think the issue for her as it has been all along is is whether she can generate the kind of it is he is him that brings out the big turnout that barack obama was able to do. In terms of percentages, she will do handsomely with that group of voters. Charlie when i talk to people in the Clinton Campaign, i asked them what they worry about and they say turnout. Dan i think that is right. I think that is the issue. She has not been an inspiring candidate. Bernie sanders did as well as he did because he was able to inspire people. He had an authenticity about his message, and she struggled with that. He had a clarity of his message, he iss donald trump when on message, that she does lack. It is very hard to boil down her speech into something simple and say here is what the Clinton Campaign is about, other than competence and incremental progress based on where we are today versus where we were. The issue for her is inspiring people. For a lot of democrats, donald trump is a figure who inspires them to want to vote against him and vote for her. In so much of the polling we have looked at this year on both , sides, there are as many or more people voting because they are voting against the opponent rather than because they are enthusiastically voting for the nominee of their party. That is an issue for her weather with young voters or latinos or african americans. She has got to make sure the energy is there. Charlie do except that both of them are the least popular to run for the presidency . Hugh the voter misery index, which i borrowed from ronald reagan, they are running away with the voter misery index. They are the least liked batman and robin of politics ever. Charlie i was waiting for you to connect this to literature or film and you connected it to the olympics. What is your take on trump and putin . Hugh i believe that Vladimir Putin is so far ahead of most americans of both parties when it comes to playing the grand game, the great game. I remember interviewing Vice President cheney and asking about putin. He said, when i looked in his eyes, i saw a kgb colonel. So the kgb colonel has russian doll within russian doll within russian doll, and if people think he wants trump to win, he probably wants hillary to win. Most of all, he is playing a european chess game and winning everywhere. He is winning in crimea. He is winning in moldov