The battle now shifts to South Carolina. And nevada. Maggie haberman of the New York Times is here. Annie carney and nate silver. Im pleased to have them at this table. Coming out of New Hampshire. Bernie sanders has proven that he is for real. In close inhe came iowa and one decisively in New Hampshire. That means hes going to be wellfunded going forward. He is not a member of the democratic party. But he can say that he has the energy and enthusiasm. I want across demographics. The only demographic she won was 65 and over. You had a lot of people voting against the status quo. If he wins in the nevada caucuses. That starts become something of a ripple effect. And i think it is a problem for Hillary Clinton. She has a lot to do. She cant go to her muscle memory which is to immediately want to shake up and change everything about her campaign. That is partly where she is going to go. The matter how many different staffers you have if they cant provide you a clear central rationale for why you are running she has not done that. She gave a sharper speech last night. When she was conceding that i have seen her do before. But isa bit tighter still very much all about her. She needs to Start Talking about the voters much more. It is way too much i end my experience. Maggie you can make the case she is over prepared. She gets many inputs and they tend to become overwhelming. She does not have a sense of politics. She does not get the inherent rhythms, which im sort of regretting saying it, because we compare her to her husband, which is not fair. She is different. There are certain skills he had said in terms of charlie or has had. Maggie what he has never been good about, he has been a good surrogate for other people. As for her, she knows what she wants to do in office. She is not good at articulating that. She likes to talk about the past a lot. Charlie is it she still the favorite . Maggie she is because Bernie Sanders has negatives that would make it hard for him. He has to pass the commander in chief test. Foreign policy discussion was challenging for him. That is a major charlie i was right on iraq judgment. Maggie sounding like he is talking off of a briefing look. You can compare the difference to her. She is also the favorite because there is no one else running. If there was someone else, it might be different . There is speculation somebody could parachute into the race. I find that hard to believe. I still think she will likely be the nominee. She will go into the general election damaged, which is problematic. Democrats, with the edge they have, should be able to nominate a cardboard cutout and have them win. Ironically, the person who cleared the field of all other democrats who could have challenged her is now seeming like a week candidate. At least for the immediate future. Charlie what would you add . Annie the message think is definitely her problem. They were trying to shake it up. The new ideas, talking about race, African American voters, but still she faces a problem that Bernie Sanders is preaching a message of revolution and she is preaching a continuation of obama, incremental change. That is harder to sell to the young people. It is not inspirational. That is what is exciting these young people. How she figures how to sell Something Like that is the message problem. We are hearing about a staff shakeup. It helped her win in iowa by a tiny margin. You New Hampshire is a test of the message. It did not resonate. It showed that is a problem more than the ground organization. Charlie young people, what are they looking for . Nate part of it has to do with hillarys theory of change. You have to work hard for change within the system and you have to pay your dues and make incremental progress. If you are 22 years old and has seen big progress for gay rights, obamacare pass, you actually think this approach works a little bit better instead. If you go to their websites, hillarys is a laundry list of issues. In New Hampshire, where she spoke, it is this same thing. She has an Impressive Knowledge of 50 years of american political history whereas bernie, his issues are income inequality and free college tuition. Young people are underrepresented and he figured out i can make 18 to 29yearolds a constituency. Obama won two thirds of that. Bernie has 85 . Charlie what does he have to do to win more and do better in the Africanamerican Community . Nate that is the one major caveat about iowa and New Hampshire, they are extremely white states. We have not seen much support for sanders in north carolina. Nevada should be a fairly good test. There is not a lot of polling. Im not sure i trust it. If clinton loses in nevada, that is a diverse state. People come from all over the country. You have union workers. Hispanic, africanamerican populations. If he shows, it used to be talked about as a firewall and all of a sudden they are talking about it saying among them credit caucusgoers it is 80 white. So even if he does well, it makes it looks like he is viable. Nate it is hard to know. 2008, you can kind of say i get why obama did well in iowa and hillary did well in New Hampshire. Right now we only have two data points and we dont know how the map will fill in. Im fascinating by, can bernie do well in appalachia . West virginia . Very working class. They would not typically vote for a vermont socialist. We have seen change is that bernies support has become downscale. Voters who have an interest in voting for him economically. Cant that translate into winning votes in appalachia, the south, the midwest and not just in the states that border canada . In terms of why clinton is struggling, she has made a lot of her own missteps. This does not exist in a vacuum. You are talking about sanders becoming downscale on the economic spectrum. Donald trump and Bernie Sanders, despite being a plutocrat, the other is a vermont socialist, they share a lot of messaging points. They are both focused on trade, antiwall street, focused on the working man. Some semblance of a pitchfork brigade. There are these strange forces at play that are making it harder for clinton. It is not a static election. There is a huge desire for change. Trump has changed the landscape on both sides in ways we dont totally understand that will become clearer now that he has won something. Charlie because of his appeal . Maggie he is something we have never seen before. I mentioned he is a plutocrat, we have never seen that before. Mitt romney was vilified for his business record. Combined with his command of media attention, it is hard for other people. He always says i am good for ratings. There is something to that. Charlie we can document that. There was a line in the movie about howard stern where there was a study done in the people who liked howard stern said they wanted to see what he was going to say next. There is something to that. Charlie when you think about Bernie Sanders, as a general election candidate and electability, does he have an argument he has to make . Nate the further you are away from the center, the worst you do. It would cost him a couple of points. That is probably right, whereas clinton is receiving fire from all sides, progressive democrats, republicans, and probably gets harsher media coverage, sanders is a viral media sensation. It would be different if you go on to march and april and he is still viable and is being attacked. Annie people feel like they were disproportionately impacted by the recession and have been negatively affected by the slow recovery. All of those forces combined are creating the sense of turmoil that we see. There was some suspicion that maybe the polls were misreading this or the media was overstating it. New hampshire would suggest otherwise. Charlie it plays out in different ways. Immigration, economic issues. Maggie i think that is right. Annie its a problem for hillary. With the paid speeches, she has a tougher plan to crackdown on wall street and she quotes paul krugman is saying she has one. The bottom line, Bernie Sanders says she did speeches to Goldman Sachs and made 600,000. She has trouble looking like the honest messenger of someone who is going to fight wall street. Nate Hillary Clinton is extremely wellliked by most democrats. In New Hampshire, where she lost, two thirds said she would be an acceptable nominee whereas donald trump, half republican said he would not be. So far, it is a friendly contest. It is interesting. I was wondering a few years ago by we did not see more upheaval in the united states. Some people are getting a again. Others are not. Right now the economy is doing well. Barack obama is popular. Why are people acting like it is 1929 . I guess because there is a delay. Charlie we have donald trump leading the country almost everywhere you go. Youve got bush and ted cruz, marco rubio. Where is the race going . Everything i hear is it is going for a long time. Maggie it definitely is. It reminds me of the end of the movie the candidate where Robert Redford says what happens now . Trump has a solid lead in all Public Opinion polls. Ted cruz faces a tough choice of who he is going to attack. And you have this sort of threeman other race for who is going to become the nontrump and that is jeb bush, john kasich, marco rubio. I would put jeb bush in the lead, which is amazing. Right to rise, his super pac, has some money and they are buying a lot of ads in South Carolina. Rubio was very damaged by that debate performance. He did have a bar he had to pass which was that i can do Something Better than just be the firstterm senator who gives a good speech. That is what he looks like. He could give a good speech and pay the same line over and over again. Charlie what was it obama had at the same time about him . Maggie were you callow . Obama and marco rubio are not the same. It was the same argument. In terms of john kasich, one thing is i dont think he is a great fit. I dont know what his financial situation is. His consultant, john weaver, i have to imagine because South Carolina is such a hotbed of politics, that will play out in some way, for all of those reasons i give jeb bush the edge. Charlie is nikki haley going to make an endorsement . Maggie i dont leave so. Annie didnt jeb bush spend like millions of dollars compared to ted cruz . Does that change . Nate we have to have some healthy disagreement. Bush has the most resources. He has a good ground game. This is a product that failed upon lunch. It was new coke where right now as many republicans have a negative view of bush as a positive view. I could see him winning the semi final and beating rubio, who has not had a lot of exposure. It was disconcerting to watch. It was one moment. I dont know. It played into an image of him. If it is true and he continues to do it, yes. If it was one messy debate performance, i dont think so. Maggie Chris Christie got out. On that debate stage, the other night he put on a bomb vest and ran over marco rubio. He hurt himself in the process, they was problematic for rubio. He thought rubio was his biggest obstacle and i also think Chris Christie is genuinely upset at the super pac adds marco rubios group had aired in New Hampshire. They were quite negative. Charlie even though it is conventional wisdom, john kasich cant come out of this New Hampshire primary with a lot of momentum because a lot of people found him an attractive personality the way he campaigned and how he reacted to audiences. Now he is saying, i learned a lot about listening. Its the opposite of donald trump. Maggie absolutely. I called the trump thing wrong many months. Im not suggesting im certain this is how it is going to go. Nate he is a victim of the calendar. In the final third, you have all these blue and purple states vote where he could do well and a lot of them are winner take all. To get there from here, when youre going to lose fourth or fifth everywhere else charlie the calendar is his enemy. Nate he has a conservative track record. Its an impressive resume of governor of ohio. He has run a folksy campaign. Can he pivot when he is not the most interesting story . He has a lower ceiling than a typical nominee. He has a high floor. 20 . People will turn out for him no matter what. Maggie this is what New Hampshire showed. Many of his voters made up their mind months ago. Charlie if john kasich does well, that is trouble for the democrats. Maggie yes. I believe anybody runs to be Vice President , but he is probably running the race best suited to being picked for the ticket. He is a popular governor. Why not . Charlie Third Party Candidate . Hello . [laughter] Michael Bloomberg is the only one who has talked about it who has some sense of plausibility. Maggie plausibility because of the unlimited resources. Charlie he has political experience. He has a high profile. Maggie absolutely. I can make a case where bloomberg makes sense for the reasons you said and also as we saw with trump, on this populist message of antiwall street, i dont know how Mike Bloomberg in 2016 makes the case if you think about the metric president obama won on, voters said he cares about people like me. That is going to be a challenge for Mike Bloomberg. He is more of a technocrat. He was a good manager of new york city. Emoting was not his strong suit. One of the things trump does is connect with people. With all the flourishes and minimal contact he did, people feel a connection. Annie last nights results is the kind of situation that would make Mike Bloomberg think about it. He looks at it and he sees donald trump and says, the rules dont seem to apply to anyone. I think it is true they would apply to him. Charlie it used to be said if it was sanders versus trump, that opened up a door to a third party. He would be the most logical one. Nate bloomberg is not that far removed from Hillary Clinton. He is more centerleft. Trump might run away to the center. If you look at what he said when he was contemplating running on the reform ticket, kind of a populist centrist. One with, bloomberg did a good job in new york, but for a national platform, a little bit more creative and clever. Trump already is a thirdparty candidate and an effective one. Charlie i hear you that you might have gotten to the point where having watched this campaign, and you can imagine donald trump as the nominee and you can imagine him as being an effective candidate. Maggie there is a version of him that can be controlled and subdued. He did a town hall on monday in New Hampshire where there were so many i feel your pain moments. A man held up a picture of his son and trump did a lot of engaging. The day before that, he was at a large rally where he was complaining about the length of his drive. It depends on when you catch him. I will say he has hinted he will do things differently. Its funny, if you have been marinating in the new york tabloids, it was hard to see trump as the rest of the country would see him. The rest of the country does not see who we have gotten to know. The rest of the country sees this successful businessman. This famous brand everybody knows. Hes been in your living room on the apprentice or hiring you. I do think he is mindful there are things he will have to do differently if he is the nominee and he is prepared to do them. Charlie its hard to argue with success. Maggie its working for him. He beat the public polls in terms of numbers. He exceeded where the polling was showing him. Charlie coming off a loss. Maggie it is not an unwitting formula for being the nominee. Charlie back in a moment. Stay with us. Charlie sir richard eyre is here. He has served as rector of the National Theater in london and has won six awards. His new opera is manon lescaut, he has also directed Sir Anthony Hopkins as an aging actor and his assistant, played by sir ian mckellen. The guardian calls it serious and grown up television. Im very pleased to have sir richard eyre on this program. Opera is not new for you. Mr. Eyre i was a slightly more than a child for my first opera, 22 years ago. I was persuaded. I was prejudiced because i felt it was all about big gestures and everything about opera was overblown. A great conductor talked me into it. I directed a production of guys and dolls. He said i love your guys and dolls. Four years he asked me and finally i said yes to la traviata and since then i have come back to it and i came back to it at the met with carmen about seven years ago at the invitation of someone who are taken over the met. I have been a regular visitor since. Manon lescaut is my fourth opera in seven years. Charlie help me pronounce it. Not mannan, ma non. Mr. Eyre of course it is in italian. They dont say it the french way. Please dont ask me the correct italian pronunciation. Charlie you find opera fascinating because mr. Eyre first of all, it is music theater. Music theater i understand. Secondly, the music is so ambitious. The whole enterprise is ambitious. At the met, i get to work with the best singers in the world. That is not propaganda. I get to work with the best singers in the world, the best conductors, the best opera orchestra, the best opera chorus. Plus this extraordinary institution that manages, in some bewildering way, to produce these operas of great quality and conditions, if you go backstage come you think, i dont know how this works, but it does. Charlie peter likes to reach out for