From our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. You expect to see Vladimir Putin run for reelection in 2017 and when . And win . Run andnk that he will get thethat he will victory, but the method i which he will get this victory will depend on how events develop. He could get the victory relatively honestly because right now, this National Chauvinism is supporting his popularity rating. You have said before about ukraine, you have said to him, you believe that he did not expect this. This was not a wellplanned action on his part. . Ut it may very well be what ukraine fornces of Vladimir Putin. If ukraine will be a successful country for from an economic standpoint, then this will have a very serious on the readiness of a change of regime themselves. If russia is if ukraine is not successful, this will be an additional argument for not changing the existing leadership in the country. Understands this perfectly well and it is for this reason that ukraines success on its path of anticorruption revolution is unacceptable to him. Part of the conflict in ukraine was about turning to the west. That was part of the conflict in the beginning. You argued forcefully that russia has to turn to the west. That russias national laces with the west. Explain that. Russia in the past several centuries of its history has been developing along the european path. There was some gaps but on the whole if we look at a thousand years of russian history the greater part of russian history, we have been developing together with europe. Our ruling dynasty as you know was one in the same as todays germany although germany did not exist back then. Many researchers, by the way, russe,hat even the name thank our northern neighbors for that name. Nevertheless, today, we are trying to find some other pallets. I do not see another path for our 140 million people. We are part of europe. All of our culture is european. All of our traditions are european. Searching for another path within the common european choice. That makes sense. Every country has its own unique path but to search for path that is separate for europe to me sounds strange. I ask people, who are you, are you chinese, are you koreans . Are you asians . No, of course not. Think that here, our country is going to have to make a choice in favor of europe, and on this path, jointly with europe, we will solve those problems that have arisen now with ukraine. Is also in russia recently, i want to see this correctly. [speaks russian] vladimir [inaudible] well. The chemicalfrom institute. He is 50 years earlier. At a plant. H him i was one of his underlings on a machine tool. Heard all kinds of attitudes toward him on the part of many people but we are all compensated people. There is some people he may have offended, that does happen. Him iss happened with ofhout a doubt a result redistribution of political influence within the kremlin inner circle. The head it of rosneft has demonstrated a desire to get him within rosneft. Scandal know, after the will he continue to have this desire or whether he is going to find another finance group and purchase it through this company. The ecently, he wasin medvedev. The ambit of local physician has political position has weakened. Realize this completely. While [indiscernible] youf traditional views, if got a grab a piece you can grab it. Always carried out the a servant of his whose job it is to take care of a whole bunch of tasks that put in did not want to do with himself. I think that they be a lesser ine but he still remains dips indisposition. Well and knows how to manipulate him well. This effectiveness, the sufficiency which consists of him coming up to putin with a question, when putin is in the himt mood or comes up to with a question, the usual palace intrigues of the sword. He is of great expert at it. He is one of the few people i hate, you are quoted as saying. Well, that is probably too strong. That there are people towards whom i truly do have a bad attitude, then igor yvenovich is that. You hated how deeply him, you have said there are people you hate more than putin. I assume hes on that list. No doubt. No doubt. He heads this list, he knows that. Hiss why psychological care peculiarities onto other people, he explains in interviews to all kinds of publications that he is afraid for his existence. Think in thisi in an my he is asking indirect way for Vladimir Putin dogive him sanction to my partnero me and whom he also despises and fears. That is the interesting weston for me to you. Do they because of your people who are close to you, they do not your have your body. Your body is outside of russia but people that are your former partners, people that you care about are there. Are you in any way a hostage to that . Might happen to People Associated with you, people close to you. War and of course, i cannot not think about i wages, but neither can they are though limiting me. In any way. Grading very many people who have to encounter this dilemma. Israel has to deal with it every day. And the decision they make is a difficult one, but it is understandable why they make that decision. Your at war with you are at war with Vladimir Putin and others who are part of a system that you want to overthrow. Me repeat what we started our talk with. I believe that Vladimir Putin is expressor of the system. In actuality, the fight is with the system. As for igor [indiscernible] element wholeasant of ouride the bounds real objectives. Do sanctions work . Badly. Yes. Theyre not having the impact that we might think they are in the crisis over ukraine. Ini think that in the form which they were adopted and announced him a lets put it that way. The second one is more important where the steps were announced, they had more of an opposite effect than the one which they were supposed to have. Fixed you believe that Vladimir Putin fears you . Today, no. That but i do think he is worried. Is dependsthis worry on how effective i am. Like all my life, actually. Competitors, my worried about me only when i was working well. Are you working well . I am just starting. Try. Oing to thank you for joining us. Let you to have you here. Pleasure to have you here. Ilnversation with mikha khordokovsky. A covers nation about Vladimir Putin and russia and some of the realities about russia today. Joining me now to talk about fellow ates, a senior the council of Foreign Relations and a professor at columbia university. Leona hill from the working substitute and from stanford, mike mcfaul. A former member of the national a professorncil and at stanford university. You have seen the transcript of this interview. Tell me about this man that you obviously know as a russian expert but have followed what he has done since he left prison and what he said to me in this interview. Careful,an extremely cagey guy. He did not become the richest man in russia without being a strategist. Of theery aware now uphill struggle that he has in andng to dislodge putinism russia. Very aware of putins assets. Incumbency, assets, popularity. He has the strength of the state on his side, ability to rewrite laws and Mikhail Khodorkovsky is plainly aware that in trying to organize an opposition, that it is going to be extremely difficult for him, particularly because he is not going back to russia. He is trying to unify deposition from a rod. Abroad. Everywhere shallot revolutionary force has come from within. And russiansenin, are aware of that. We tend to think of Mikhail Khodorkovsky as having these enormous assets of wealth and notoriety and moral authority, but it made be that in the struggle that he sees for and teststher assets of political strength are going to be important. What we call a ground game here. What organization and issues and allies, and that is still untested for Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He has got a lot of feelers out to figure out how to unify whate but we do not know kind of success he is having or exactly how he intends to proceed. I thought this was a very interesting interview but one that did not tell us a lot about his next moves. Hisor is he saying about next moves. He is not only not saying, he is not going to see a lot if he thinks he will it will not help him. What is the opinion of him and russia . It depends on who you ask. If you ask at the kremlin, i know what they think. That would be a more confused answer, too. Who work infriends the kremlin. I know them, used to work with them. They would not want me to reveal their names on your program but there are some sympathy for him even in the kremlin. Most certainly in the financial circles and the business circles in russia. He is well regarded. And as he himself said to you, he thinks that there is 10 , 15 of the population that is hereuropean. Ist part of the population sympathetic to what he did and i just remind you the notion of spending a decade in jail in a way that is perceived by that 10 as being clinical gives him political gives him a credibility that other political leaders in russia today on the liberal side of the ledger do not have. Morals he have the authority of other dissidents . Yes and no. When he was arrested there was a debate among the human rights activists, many of whom had whetherme in the gulags they should support him. Over the years, they have come to see him as one of theirs, yes. That is interesting and different. That did not happen before. The problem of course as steve pointed out is how do you leave this movement in exile . It has happened historically. But the African National conference that had a while,le community for a but that is the point. It was for decades before they had impact inside south africa. Opinion of him and the struggle he has and the authority that he has within segments of the russian population . There is one significant thing that steve and mike have touched upon. It is that he has earned the ofpect of a broader heart the population, not just in and around the kremlin but across the russian populace. He serves his time. Although part of the story about his release seemed to indicate he had asked for some kind of pardon or Early Release because his mother was sick. I do not think people saw that. When putin announced he was granting a kind of clemency or mercy interlacing him, he made the point very specifically that he said in jail a long time, he is being punished and that resonates within the russian psyche. There are so many figures in literature of people who have suffered in that way. In that respect whatever he did in the past, he has earned this grudging respect in some quarters but a certain kind of moral authority. He did not run away. He went back to russia when he knew he was sure to be arrested and he did his time. That counts as something in that rather complex society. Lets talk about putin. He measures you popularity id as you look at ukraine, guess the assumption is when the president does the kinds of things he has done, the first instinct his popularity goes up. Is that true with putin . It certainly is. We actually saw putin on a downward trajectory and his polling ratings last year. Some degree in trouble. He has gone down in the polls around 2008. At the end of the year before the Winter Olympics, down to 64 . Putin has always been judged according to his past performance and clearly, people were not seeing him performing as well so we saw the ratings go up again after a successful Winter Olympics and they have gone off the charts with the exception of crimea which has been popular. What goes up like that can surely come down again and i think theyre watching very closely for any kind of hints of trouble. It will be very hard to maintain those kinds of readings in any circumstance and it is including in russia where it is all about alln and his performance, eyes are on him in this system. Michael, what are his vulnerabilities . The economy without question. This is a leader that does not have an ideology. There is no communist party, there is not a party system here. He does not get authority from god like previous leaders did in the past, so it is all about economic performance. His numbers went over 80 after crimea but george bush was over 90 when he went into afghanistan the and he was close to 75 even when he went into iraq in 2003. That is without controlling all the media. That is without having Just One Party in control or a congress. Lets just remember that it is easier to have those numbers when you control all the institutions of the clinical system. If you look at the economy, it is not growing. It will be zero this year. Year. Less than that next capital flight is tremendous. The ruble is falling. Investment is way down. Just this week, there was a major Investment Conference that putin performed at and he wasnt a very good mood and very funny and he was in a very good mood and very funny, and all the economic technocrats including the ones who work for and were not in such a good mood and reporting on the future of the economy and i think that is his achilles heel. Will sanctions make you more vulnerable . And theyll in the long run, yes. Sanctions are having an impact on the economy, that is without question. The problem is not there is a long the problem is, there is a long history of sanctions. Worsen and has to someone has to organize around that politically. That has not happened. The havesy against and havenots and rally people to say that this is being caused by the west. Howcycle of house sanctions play we should measure in years, not weeks or months. Without question, it already is having an impact on the economy and people are starting to talk about it. Is it really in russias National Interest to be mucking around in Eastern Ukraine of the price to be paid for that is a collapsing ruble and 0 growth . , do youents unfolded believe that what has happened in ukraine was not something that he intended to do but it was a reaction and he may look at it as a mistake but he has got himself out there and does not know what to do . Was a bigin, crimea score, big success, and i doubt he has any real regrets about that. The crucial moment for him was computed from seizing crimea getting embroiled in ukraine which is much more of a mess, much less payoff. And the kind of openended commitment that he may not be able to manage well. Add another vulnerability to the question you asked mike about about put ins position. Mikhail khodorkovsky point out something useful in the interview when he talked about the unpredictability of situations. Y he said these things cannot be foreseen. It looks as though they are not going to happen until suddenly they do. And he is banking on a kind of unease within the elite and hopefully within the population at some point that is a policieson of putins are producing a situation in which that things light head for russia. He is talking about a revolutionary scenario that everybody wants to avoid. Is makingng putin that more likely with accommodation of economic policies, corruption,elegitimizing the regime cronyism, and getting bogged down in a war that does not succeed. That is a combination that could stoduce more tha produce more than just a change in whole numbers. Of heart, change of mind within Public Opinion in terms of what kind of country they want to be. Is there a figure in russia today who would be the most likely opponent of putin with the possibility of emerging as a victor . Years agoson that two or a year ago you would have aentified is novaly who has populist charisma and ability to organize his master issues. He is a rather talented eker and has a common man touch. Has is in agreement. He has him under house arrest. We talked about his assets and weaknesses. He does not seem himself as the person who is upfront at the front of that leadership crowd. When you look at russia beyond economics and the change, what is his grand admission b ambition . To become catherine the great. To reunify russia, to have a kind of surge of National Glory that will make him a legendary figure in russian history. Raised khodorkovsky has some questions about that. When the scenarios he mentioned, he says he could die with his boots on. Three wayss that he could go. There is a divided elite and you could end up if things go badly with a coup or you could end up with a real mess in the country, a revolution. He is trying to raise a question mark about putins catherine ambitions. Does he care about his image in the world, does he care about russias image in the west question mark he cares about russias standing in the world. An image that russia is on an expensive drive. Catherine was known for her expansion of the russian empire. Claim to all the places their russian empire and the soviet union have been before. I want to make sure that russias position is stable and defense. In a owns fused with his interest as president and maintaining that position and the people around him in the system he has created. What hes trying to do is in a repel all others who might have any kind of aspirations for any kind of political or Economic Engagement in the same space. A muscular protectionist stance hashis position that he sketched out. Of course, it is also in a very different mindset, a different frame from what we used we are used to talking about and that is the challenge we have. He is establishing a different way of talking about russias position in the world. It is not one that we were hoping for several years ago. He cares about the standing of russia but he cares about this idea of being respected and about being treated in accordance with the way he has led things out. That was the emphasis on the olympics, i assume, and those kinds of things. He wants the world to admire russia and admire and perhaps admire hit it as a great nation which i think the world does and in some cases, since russia will be part of the future. Mikhail khodorkovsky talked about the west and russia should be looking west. Is putin looking east . No. He is trying to carve out a position that is neither east nor west. Is this russias position. There are some things that putin has said over time. Russia is part of europe. It just is. Russia is part of europe. He also has said that russia has this eurasian perspective, neither east nor west, it is a unique civilization. What he is trying to carve out is an idea of russia being like the u. S. And china and the ability to be three countries that matter. Them. Will