Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg BusinessWeek 20160626

The leave process sooner rather than later. Spanish voters head to the polls for this exam in sixmonth and middle eastern stocks extend losses from fridays selloffs. What istle bit about happening with the market, this is where we stand. The big new friday. The pound getting absolutely battered. 13679. Does that carry in to the morning . We will see. There is a big spread at the moment is to wear sterling could go. The 600 was down 7 . Gettingho tells you into a currency like the dollar gets into a different story. On the belief governor marconi will do more. Will that happen . Will Governor Carney still be Governor Carney . Lets see where it is. The banks render rusher. This is the story stateside. Down by 3. 5 just north of the 20,000 level. Safety trade remains u. S. Treasury and gold. As you can see, gold around 4. 5 . There you have it. Now lets go around the world and check in with our Bloomberg Team for indepth coverage. In a edmonds is in westminster with what is next in the u. K. Theline is in paris with latest fraction from president all along. Lets start with anna edwards. Anna, the United Kingdom and fragmented europe and a fragmented labour party. When you want to begin . In a it was a turn of the tories, the conservative party fragmented on friday. Increasingly, the labour party looks though. Increasing pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to resign. He is the leader of the labour party. He was already facing a noconfidence motion. Now we see resignation after resignation from his shadow front bench this morning. I caught up with John Mcdonnell who is the shadow counselor. He was defending Jeremy Corbyns reputation. Jeremy corbyn has come under a lot of reputation for a salient ring, the heartland, the industrial traditional labor vote to the remains i during this Brexit Debate and referendum. John mcdonnell was defending Jeremy Corbyn but id then asked him about the economy and asked him what the economy needs now. What we need to do is make sure we have stability. The bank of england has been critical on that. We have taken the support of the emergency measures. One of the issues is the official role the George Osborne has has to go because it is restraining our economy. It is certain in the coming weeks and months ahead. The defendant Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the party, said it was a challenge to his leadership and he would win again. Talk about what happens within the conservative party. Anstill do not have understanding of what the labour party is going to look like or what the conservative hardy is going to look like. On the outside, this does not look like the british lyrical sort of entity had a clear understanding of what it was going to do if the referendum went brexit. I have been given the sense historically. Anna . Anna if anyone has a brexit plan up their sleeve it is not a very detailed one. We took about the chaos in the labour party and constitutionally as well as on the first minister of scotland was talking today about whether she would at the parliament in edinburgh need to approve some kind of brexit legislation. Remember, 62 of scots voted to remain within the European Union so she wants to keep them in it. That could mean a second independence referendum. As the she thought edinburgh wanted to approve a referendum, she said she thinks it does. She says there would have to be legislative approval to enact a brexit. When asked if she would be on parliamentll to block a brexit, she said she would. Summary questions opened up in. This is not a country that seems as if it is in any place to go to brussels and start negotiations. Educational secretary lucy powell called the position untenable. Under their resignation. I want to know how much this will continue. It is going to happen drop the day, seemingly. Can Jeremy Corbyn stand up to this kind of pressure . Johnen i spoke to mcdonnell and asked him with all of these figures quitting, the shadow front bench this he not need to leave, he just said, a notwhile ago not many quite as many names have been called and he was sticking to this line that Jeremy Corbyn would contest a second leadership job if there was to be one. Together momentum and and dump with a full on leadership challenge, they need to get 51 signatures from labour mps to get that in motion. But it looks like it is gaining momentum very quickly here and london. Thank you very much. U. K. Politics. Of summary questions at the moment. Very happy for the labour party to take the headlines today. This thing about, wheres judge George Osborne . Where is boris . We need to hear from porous fairly soon. We wonder if they are coming up with a plan. Highly likely, the fact they do not have a clue as to what the next is. I they actually putting something together . Here is a question. What is the job of the chancellor and a situation like this . You know what the job of the bank of england was, because he didnt. He came out and reassured people. I just wonder whether actually he cannot do that job anymore. You wasted so much Political Capital on the way in with the warnings of the way it would be, and emergency budget, a recession, pensions. Where is he . Can he do his job anymore . That is exactly what they are talking about, david. Exactly. Now lets go to harris. Caroline joins us. Your for an about how there is disarray. What about the european side . We heard this morning chancellor merkel is more likely to take her time. Where is president Francois Hollande on that . President Francois Hollande would like to see a u. K. Exit happen quickly rather the end slowly. The same point of view he had over the weekend from the bank of france governor who said, this needs to happen quickly in a very, very quick manner. Of course, president hollande of the pressure of the rise the leaders. Backtoback meetings yesterday. We met with the opposition leaders, the same people who might face some in the next president ial elections next year. You had of course, the National Director who is calling for this same referendum to happen in france. She wants the referendum and ts she calls for exit frexit. And it nicolas are cozy an interview, you can see the front page here. Baghdad. She wants a new eu by the end of this year. Also says once to see the amf to stop dealing in european affairs. He wants europe to have its own european monetary form. Karen, one of the problems is a possible knockdown effect. What sort of political pressure is actually on president hollande . What would mr. Cameron do over again . Course, the pressure is high because the next president ial election, 10 months from now. Havee next year you will elections in both germany and france of the eu leaders of these two powerhouses might be replaced. Latest polls show than counselor hollande would be eliminated in the first round of next year the matter who is running against him. Has about 27 in the polls. Even though all the polls, of course, actually showing she would lose in the second round. Thank you. Joining us from paris. Coming up, a look at the huge moves in the currency market. Biggestd suffered its drop on record. Could volatility be here to stay . More bloomberg is coming up next. Will the pound continue to underperform . We are joined at from new york. Rude to have you with us on the program. Comparison, the magnitude of the move quite clear. Talk to me about how different this market is versus 1992 in terms of market structure. Highfrequency trading. The markets to do that on a headline as it drops. It feels different. The reaction in the Foreign Exchange markets was larger the in 1992 in the black wednesday episode. If you look at the past couple of years, the pockets of extreme volatility. Larger than what we have been seeing previously. That is just the new state in the four next change market. I do not think were going to continue in that same mode Going Forward necessarily in the coming weeks. But that is the reality. Ask what is the best trade right now . If you look at the range is being talked about, they are absolutely huge. Theuite a lot of price in sterling already going into the decision. Clearly not enough. Is forely, the trick sterling to sell rallies. We should not complicated too much. The headline risk may kind of go both ways. Start to go a little bit more month was but i think the underlying situation is not very constructive. A large deficit that needs to be finance. You also have the bank of england. Sooner or later we will have to step in. I think fundamentally the picture does not look very good. Talk to me about where you think that will leave the euros because we are clearly in a situation where we do not understand the political direction in the u. K. There are a lot of moving parts. There is also a clear understanding that the eurozone has problems as well. Walk me through what we are looking at. Where do you trade sterling against the euro . The dollar against the euro . Where is the biggest price right now . It is kind of interesting has gotthe market increasingly similar. Headline risk for the euro as well as the lands pound. We will see how the election plays out. A tendency to sell the euro on any eunegative headlines. I would be careful about that. The special situation with the euro is different. The euro has held up very well in the aftermath. Fish and sea euro a little bit. We would not rush to sell the euro aggressively. Certainly they were sacred because of the downside. We penciled in 108 in terms of the eurodollar level. Think 86 is realistic because we think cable is going to go to 130. I think the tendency would be to sell the euro along with sterling. Want to pick up on something you said, the bank of england steps in. Simpson and does what . We will obviously have to see pillow with it brings to the economy from the financial volatility. We think there is a high chance of a technological recession. Obviously, the first step will be to cut rates. We think they will cut rates to zero by the end of the year. From there, the possibility of extending is not certain. That is really what the markets are going to focus on. You have been focusing on the euroing the pound that and the pound dollar. They did not react as badly as we expected. Some of it was already in the price if you look at how the mexican peso is traded, week for several months now. There is still a grasping kind needs. D that this we will see more bullet to latini in the yen is the currency and a lot of traders will rush to own, perhaps against some of those European Merchant marking tendencies. I would not pick any right now. Where is the chinese heading right now . Nowhere or not far. China clearly has shown us over the years the preference to keep things very stable in terms of market turmoil. Look at what happened in 2008. They have the capacity, the reserves the willingness. I think they will try to keep that you when stable. Lets talk about what the boj does next. It has the against problem of any central bank out there right now. I can move it 100 but that is not where it always stops. We have seen several instances where we have gone through 100 into the 80s levels. Have the bojrough will be reacting because it is really hard to see that it has many more tools in the box then going out sitting and monetizing. I think you are right, the boj is in a to have. Markets are trying to figure out what is the line in the sand with the dollar yen. I dont think its close. They have indicated they want to wait a little bit and it is a kind of an active for example, to intervene right away. They market would be leaning heavily against some so it makes sense to wait. I think the first reaction is still close to evening so they can expand more. They can probably expand into etfs. I think they wanted to keep some dry and case there was the extreme volatility and that is what happened. So its the first time. It is going to be tough for them to reverse for sure. Thank you for your comments and thoughts. From credit agricole. The ceo says more volatility. Jonathan ferro here is a line. To weaken, not high. The conversation we will have the coming week and heres is the direction is fewer people and if you wanted to ask people right now, would you really ask them to the city of london for 2, 3, 4 years. Just for a question of magnitude, how big or small . Coming up next, brexit. Repricing of assets creates a new opportunity for gp. Will they be out there pricing . More bloomberg , next. This is a special edition of bloomberg , i am david westin. Welcome back. I read what you have to say about this. As you look at the aftermath of brexit, you put it into two timelines. 13six months and one after that. Tell me what you expect. I think the first thing is and we are talking about repricing of assets, how do you price risk. I think in the next threesix months it will be difficult to understand what a unit of risk will look like. Itould say over six months, will have to be incredible and opportunistic if we see a brexit premium in return. Beyond politics, there will be an election in october. So the results will be known. The direction will be known and die think we will then be more comfortable to get back into the normalafter we have more times. Up that is right, that means the money will stab the market. It will not be going to the u. K. Over the next six months or so. I will give you an example. We had scheduled an Investment Committee into the u. K. For the 20 foot of june because on the 23rd there was exit. The decision we made was delayed. It strikes me, there has been a premium because of the access to the Common Market. If that premium goes away over the summer, does that mean there is a permanent discount into the value of u. K. Investments . Frederico today i would say it a specificnt until example. How will our exports be terrorist. Will we go to wto rules or stood staying in what is happening today. Wewill ultimately go to how rate and investments. I think there was a premium for u. K. Assets which may very well disappear. Drags then i wonder if 36 months is enough time. I dont know if we will have the answer to those questions six months from now. And three months there will be an election. It is a sense of time as weight and see. If this is the weight and see. , we have to see what are the second order effects. Are you similarly cautious about europe during this time of uncertainty . Frederico i was trying to quickly allude into what a second effect would be. Europe, the euro, and what can be happening in the 500 main Common Market of europe. Of for this interim. Interim time, where does it go . Frederico it is weight and see. Ihad to take a guess, dont know. There you have it. Private assets. Coming up on bloomberg , will the uncertainty and brexit lead to a change in m a deals. Okay, ready . Whoa [ explosion ] nothing should get in the way of the things you love. Get americas fastest internet. Only from xfinity. By switching to xfinity x1. Rio Olympic Games show me gymnastics. X1 lets you search by sport, watch nbcs highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. Im getting ready. Are you . X1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversals coverage of the rio Olympic Games. Call or go online today to switch to x1. From london and new york, i am Jonathan Ferro beside guy johnson and david westin. Lets get you up to speed on a historic few days. High. The brexit vote has spread to turmoil. Leader Jeremy Corbyns team is ready to resign. Is because of corbyns decision to fire the department spokesperson. Some have criticized corbyn for for thea Week Campaign eu referendum. To a look at stable negative. Moodys said and wake of the brexit vote, it expects uncertainty and lower spending to lead to weaker growth. The business secretary has called for a summit of Business Leaders to discuss concerns ever leading the European Union. Times, the lead says we will have to create a more friendly environment. He will hold a meeting with two dozen executives. Global news powered by 600 plus analysts and over 120 journalists. For european reaction, joining us from brussels. Brian, give us a sense of who is driving the ship. Is this a situation where it has been joined turned over to the interstates or does the eu and commission itself have a role to play . Commission, which is the executive arm of the European Union, has the nominal role of steering the ship that i think the heads of state have decided it is far too important to leave to the executive commissions are disappointed as germany that is driving the bus, if you will. Thats why Angela Merkel tomorrow is hosting the french president , the italian Prime Minister, and the president of the european council. He represents all of the eu readers eu players here and brussels. Beryan, president seems to moving more quickly in the negotiations. Angela merkel said and she go more slowly. How much tough of a time will she have two persuade Francois Hollande and others they should stay with her . I do not know she will have a very to have time because of the and of the day the bread the british can go as quickly as they want or as slowly as they went in terms of invoking article 50 which begins the official office of exiting a twoyear time. The french can put together and eu plan for what the eu will look like after a brexit on their own. Quiteeed the germans and frankly, the germans feel what they are prepared to offer something more like a political club, they would still have a euro but leaving it at that as opposed to what the french want which is more like a financial union. The germans feel theyre ideal for the future of the eu is the lowest common denominator that everybody can agree on so that the said they should proceed so everybody stays in the club. David thank you so much Ryan Chilcote joining us from brussels. Jonathan . Jonathan right here right now, spanish election underway today as a country goes to vote for the second time in six months. We are joined from madrid. What a weekend. Reporter it is quite a weekend. Essentially, it began this morning and is due to and later tonight. We should get votes around 10 30 local time, 9 30 london time. Euroscepticd of a party in the form of one that came from nowhere over the last couple years. According to the latest opinion polls, they can come out second. Overall, john, we might end up with a stalemate like the one we got in december. Maybe no Party Getting enough seats to lead. Got to say, the last six months you would not have to and would not have a government at all. Spain over germany, i wonder if that makes things a little bit more urgent than they were before. Jonathan, this is partly the argument of the acting Prime Minister. Saying, you need to vote for a safe pair of pants. He said in a one way or another, he is a leader who knows his job. Suggesting there is no time for a novice. We all know the opinion polls are not always right. Yet to come forth. That is something that traditional parties associated with the Biggest Party would argue, they need a safe pair of hands. The others are calling for change. We did see it battered with the exception of italians, more than any other market. We did see the amount of spending to borrow for 10 years but it pays virtually what germany pays. That said, saying, the only sonority oh not quite in is a victory for the left or a repeat election. This scenario, victory for the some serious volatility on monday. It is amazing, the market has insulation from the ucb for the last two or three years but you get a sense that politics matters even more after this decision by the u. K. Now we are joined by rolf schloss stein. Take you for taking out of your summer sunday sometime to join us. We want to talk about the exit for brexit. Lets go to the heart of your business. Ever core is known in banking. Have you seen some effects already . It is too early to have seen any affects other than the obvious decline in markets globally. But, uncertainty always slows down m and a activity. Why does it do that . Because what happens is the price buyers are willing to pay for companies weekends a little bit because there is more risk and more uncertainty. Businessesllers of look at last weeks price in say, we cant take a discount from that. So what happens is the spread between what buyers want to pay and what sellers are willing to accept widens out a lot and that slows down activity which is why uncertainty always creates at least a short run slow down. Over the long run. Intermediate is a longer. The process of strategic connection or strategic mergers. It will continue. Because the benefits of Scale Distribution and products will continue. Down forhe price come it u. K. Assets as we apparently lose or may lose the premium that has been there . I think at least in the short run, the two biggest losers are going to be u. K. Real estate, realpremium residential estate and commercial real video, because in my and employment in these Services Sectors in the u. K. Including the very Important Services are will slow down and probably reverse for a time. The second is obviously the u. K. Based Financial Services sector. The u. K. Has been the into thent entry point eu for Global Financial institutions and it is certainly not a certainty that will not be the case Going Forward, but at ats point we have no idea all how this will settle out in terms of the transfer of services across borders that are not part of the same at union. Given the facts with no idea what all, as you say, does it internalmake u. S. Investment more attractive as prices go up here. We clearly have become a assets. Ven for risk risk assets being things like equities, currencies, commodities, and clearly you are going to be happy you are owning an equity in the United States at this point in time just from a riskreward, point of view. But there is probably going to be pullback from risk assets generally because what happened in britain certainly would cause one to be concerned about the various populist movements that are springing up globally at this point in time. Guy good morning. Ralph, if you were a vp running a hedge fund, where would you base yourself in europe right now . Ralph you would sit firmly on your hands is affect of lay what would happen right now because equityre gps in private firms. Making longterm investments that are fundamentally illiquid. I think at this point in time, investors are going to be inclined to make investments that if they see a change in the landscape, they can reverse or exit the next day. These investments are the antithesis of that. Do think it will affect the golity of talent having them do other things. If you are trying to hide a bed, howard you do it. Well, it tends to migrate to the places where business can best be conducted. I do not think there is a byediate short run affected this because as i said before, we have no idea how this will shake out. In the flowcally, of Financial Services across borders. It may be that certain businesses become more easily conducted from france or frankfurt, paris or frankfurt. Sure at thismplete point and time. And there are models in the eu complete divorce. Look at norway, for example. Be so, i think it would premature to conclude that this or that is going to happen. We have a candidate, mr. Donald trump, was friday mr. Ally a good day for trump recognizing you are a hillary supporter . It has to be and eyeopening day for anyone who is a antitrade,these antiimmigration, highly populist fareoriented movements. I think anyone would have to be you know, have their head in the sand to ignore the degree of anger, frustration, that there is globally about the lack of broad participation in the various in the very modest economic recovery we have had globally. President and ceo of thecore. Coming up, how should investors hedge the insecurities from brexit. We will have that coming up next on bloomberg. From london and new york, this is bloomberg with Jonathan Ferro and david. In on theeaders weigh impact of brexit. The british people voted for for at least a year saying a brexit vote would lead to a downgrade of the u. K. Still it is aaa. I do not think this will end up being a longterm drama, i think all of the Market Participants will be able to cope with the shortterm volatility and well go back, if you like, to a more considered reaction. It is a considered action but everyone will be very excited this morning. Everyone will follow europe this summer and will continue to come to britain. The biggest question is, can meet u. K. Find a way to stay in the single market. The ramifications spread globally. 24ant to turn out to a billion dollar fund manager. Great to have you on the program. Lets talk about how you are set up going into this big event risk and how you look coming out the other side for next week. Thank you. We were positioned well. You have to remember we are policydrivena market today. If investors have not gotten that memo yet, someone should give it to them. What dish or fund look like right now . We are a diversified asset manager. You should try to insulate yourself as much as you can from the casinos and central bankers. For us that means real assets. Really yields. Things that have actual cash flows from actual, real economic businesses. We do for ourg broad Asset Allocation approach is to think in terms of risk first and reward second. The direction of trade and volatility, the directional work at doesnt still this point or is it all about monitoring volatility. Directional strategies work if you are adapted. The trend following funding surely had their best day of the year on friday. If thats what you mean by directional strategy, it is still something that should be a part of every investors Asset Allocation. We hear a lot about outside and beta. Epsilon. We are in a world right now where that the gear is pretty large. Now, how doright you invest when you are a world in a world driven by game theory. What you are thinking about is epsilon theory. The error term in modern economic theory. Forl, beta, then epsilon error. But epsilon is not error. It is the behavior of markets. It is not usually incorporated into how we model alpha and beta. But game theory can help understand those behavioral areas of market. The first we talked about. Trend of following. Game playing as a thing. You can invest a long side that. The other goal i talked about and this is what i meant when i said you want to distance yourself from the casino, the game the Central Banks are plain. They are playing a game between themselves with markets. There is a whole thing in poker, if you have been playing for 30 minutes and you do not know who this sucker is, it is you. So you want to distance herself from the table. We are going to wrap it up there. Thank you very much. Atn hunt, chief risk officer salient. More details coming in with the labour party. Massive resignations from Jeremy Corbyns party. The secretary of treasury quitting as well. That according to the press association. Commenting on earlier, this is august orchestrated. Getting together and slowly giving resignations to build the pressure. I think if hillary had not been sacked, that would not have happened. He was a lightning rod. That is what is taking place. Lets talk about what happens next. Coming up, labor mp frank field joins in to talk about the political and what is happening. That is up next here on bloomberg. This is bloomberg , imd for question. Lets go to where Francine Lacqua is standing by. Francine thank you so much, david. We are in westminster for another full day of coverage from the fallout from the recommended vote. Mr. Frankford is here. We are seeing a revolt within the labour party which you are part of. Leaderremy corbyn, the of the labour party, stepped down . I doubt it. That revolt if that is what you want to call it is being triggered by what labour voters have been saying. If you look at the vote during labor has voted overwhelmingly to come out. One of the key things is whether we are going to actually have a common entry party that reflects those views or whether we continue to be disconnected from getbase as laborers seek to representation elsewhere outside of the labour party. What do you call this . I hope by monday evening there will be a process, tuesday a vote of noconfidence. I fully expect Jeremy Corbyn will be a candidate in that contest. What we will then hopefully see is a clear emergence of leadership and the Parliamentary Party will grow by around that leader and hopefully carry that labor membership which will be difficult because we will open the doors to people paying minimal sums to vote. That much more important, we will have a leader that command support of monks to labor voters in the country. Francine a labor already leader that will also have a chance of becoming Prime Minister. We have a fair idea. The last thing the labor party needs is a general election. The northernt how seeds voted, i imagine that in fact we had a general election, labor could be reduced to less seats. The idea that for christmas i had to approve they did not fire upon the party. Francine are you a skeptic . You must be pleased with the outcome of the referendum. Would you think should lead this country . I dont know. I will be in a position to say who should be the alternative Prime Minister by autumn and i think the party should group around the person and promote them and for the third chance, give us a real chance at winning the 2020 general election. On the conservative side, the party will have its chance of new leadership to regroup and reunite. The country needs the challenge of reuniting behind a diverse a group of all the talents needed to negotiate the exit. The german chancellor, think an is, has set the tone. There is no rush. She does not want anyone to precipitate action. Our negotiating team is established. We dont our success does not have to be at europes loss. Francine you have been a 19liament i believe since , i believe that is the most. L . Moretrigger article why not trigger article 50 . There is no uncertainty. There is a clear vote from the referendum which parliament now has to take on boarding and begin that we negotiations. Beeneague group has never elected is now saying we are going to push britain out. But that is not the view of some of the elected people within the union, most importantly the german leadership. We should take things slowly and clearly. Legally, she says she can lock this. Issue foolishly once to have another referendum she will lose it. But the idea in these circumstances where the english are propping up the scottish colonies, where it has gone through the floor with the price of oil, if she think she cant win a referendum on that basis, she knows she cant. It is play at on her part. She started right when she thought in these circumstances. Francine you would be prepared to let scott and scotland go . F she prepared a referendum i think scotland would vote by an even clearer margin to stay. It is an are best interest. Francine it is a gamble. It is a gamble to stay. At some stage, the european currency is going to explode and there will be a terrible fallout. So both staying in and coming out have it. Whenever i spoke, i said there were risks in voting to stay and findings to come out. Now, there was a longish. A longish time of calm while we got settled and europe got settled. We want both sides to feel they came away with more. Feeline a lot of ceos bruised. The are trying to weigh possibility of getting people out of the country. I wonder if that is true. Some people might rush. I do not think that is true. I think distances will wait to see what the terms are. It may be that our terms start to trigger the renegotiations to winvid cameron once by being inside it europe. We will now get those terms to make the trade and for a cessation by actually negotiating from this position of strength. The british people will come out. Thank you so much. I will hit you back to new york. Who has been given the houses 1969. You are a skeptic. It was fascinating. Inc. You for coming to us from westminster. There were a lot of good things. We will start i am david westin here in new york. Welcome. It was very interesting what he had to say about how worried they are. Interestinghat very too. If you sit here and think about how a general election will be triggered, they need a big majority. It seems to me that there are , they labor mps out there think, we are not in a position to do that. It does pose questions about how this will work