House for a third time. Peter, good afternoon. Big news in the world of politics. The suspense is over. We will not see a third run for the white house from mitt romney. That decision already rocking the 2016 Campaign Just as his flirtation with the run was scrambling the race. He broke the news this morning on a call with supporters and donors. He said he was confident he would win the nomination again, raise the money he needed an muster the organization required. He said he stands the best chance today of defeating the eventual democratic nominee but acknowledged that might change if the rest of the republican field makes their case. Here is part of his call. I feel it is critical that america elected conservative leader to become our next president. You know that i wanted to be that president , but i do not want to make it more difficult for someone else to emerge who may have a better chance of becoming the president. He acknowledged it was a difficult decision for he and his family and said he is looking for the next generation of Republican Leaders to get to the white house. He said he was confident someone in that field would carry the day. Is someone from the field possibly the former republican governor of florida, jeb bush . He is arguably the biggest beneficiary of this decision, at least in the short term. They were both competing for many of the same established republican donors. Also some of the same staffers. I have spoken to several romney donors who were either on offense or backing jeb bush this time around. They said this makes things so much easier. The statement we got on facebook from jeb bush a range of reactions to this news as well from other potential contenders in the 2016 field. Rand paul saying he hopes to work with mitt romney. He had been taking some shots in recent days at the former massachusetts governor. Marco rubio saying he respects the decision. Lindsey graham saying as well he is surprised by the decision. I think its a safe bet that given how close an intensely mitt romney talked about this over the last three weeks the fact that he has pulled the plug now does come as a surprise to some republicans. Did he slammed the door shut for good . He left about an inch of daylight in there. He was asked if he could step forward or change his mind in the future, and he said it was unlikely. He didnt slam the door shut but you could hear in the tone of his voice that this was a tough decision and he is in all likelihood totally out of the raise. Was there a sigh of relief among some in the gop that mr. Romney made this decision . Absolutely. I have spoken to several republicans who were close to mitt romney who felt it would not be good for romney or the field to have him back in the race. It would be a bloody contest. It will be a bloody contest. Now he can maintain his status as eminence on the republican side going forward, someone everyone else can look to. Peter, thank you so much. U. S. Economic growth had slowed in the fourth quarter. Gross to mastercard accrue at a rate of 2. 6 . Constance hunter Gross Domestic Product grew at a rate of 2. 6 . Constance hunter joins me. This growth came at the same time the u. S. Of the biggest gain in consumer spending. Why the disconnect and should investors be concerned . There were couple of sectors that were slower. One was inventory building. The other was investment. Investment stopped and even pulled back a little in the fourth quarter. Then of course we were hurt by imports. When you think about it, if we imported more, that is a sign that our economy is fundamentally very sorry very strong. You would not be importing goods and services if there wasnt an intent to use them and a demand for them. Our import sector has shrunk as a result of Falling Oil Prices and when you consider the fact that we have a stronger dollar. Our buying power is greater. It really shows that the underlying strength of the economy is still there. The fed says it is going to remain patient on deciding when to raise rates. The debate is already underway. Lets listen in quickly. Zero Interest Rates is not right for this economy. We are closer to our goals than we have been in a long time. Inflation is not enough to rationalize 0 Interest Rates. The problem today is not the lack of command. Its the lack of supply. Its not that inflation is too low it is that inflation is too low, not too high. It is not that Central Banks are being too activist. It is that they may have trouble being activist enough. What is your reaction . Jim bullard and Larry Summers. Is there a game show i can go on to recognize the voices of economists . Jim bullard was saying zero Interest Rates was the wrong way to go, and mr. Summers was saying its about demand and not supply. So, Larry Summers is in the secular stagnation can. He really feels we need more fiscal policy and we are not getting enough demand. Bullard is looking at it from a perspective of how is the fed achieving their mandate . We are now strongly in a growth pattern territory and really, this gdp has the potential to be revised. There is one. 2 Percentage Points from revision to revision. Theres plenty of room for this gdp number to get up to 3 . People forget were going to have three more revisions in the coming months. Absolutely. What we sacrifice is absolute accuracy for timeliness. This is our first snapshot. There is still a lot of monthly data that has to be compiled. As that gets done in the picture becomes more accurate, we are very likely to see a different picture, which i think will be a little stronger. The Consumer Sentiment index reached an 11 year high this month. Our two dollar a gallon gas prices driving this . For the average consumer this is such a benefit, even if it is just psychological. I know for myself, when i fill my tank and it is over 50 i am thinking oil prices are too high. Now i am down to a 40 tank filled. Its not a huge amount of money, but psychologically, it is very different. You see that in something as simple as going out to dinner one more time a week or saying to your kid yes you can take a flute lessons or a football coaching this week. That impacts gdp significantly. You were talking about imports being one of the dark clouds of the u. S. Trade deficit. How is the gap affecting the overall economy . I wouldnt say or is one of our dark clouds. We provide a Great Service to the World Economy by being consumers. If you look on a percentage basis in terms of how large an economy we have, we are bigger than any other economy in the world and we are a net employer. That helps develop the growth in other markets. You look at europe, which is really suffering and their exports to the u. S. Are going to rise in part because we have stronger growth and impart because there is a weaker euro in play and a stronger dollar. What does this look like going forward, specifically if we can turn back to the fed, if they are going to be patient. If we see growth over 2 and unemployment edging toward 5. 5 , is the go it slow approach still warranted . I think the more important part of the fed statement is actually data dependent. They have been saying over and over again we are data dependent. What that tells you is were going to see things evolve. For example, we did not foresee that japan and europe were going to bring one point 5 trillion of liquidity into the Global Economy over the next year. Lower rates are stimulated for u. S. Growth. There is a lot that can happen over the next couple of months. I actually agree with bullard when he suggested in the interview that you guys had with him this morning that they might raise and then pause for a meeting or two just to see how it is going. In that way, they are going to be patient. I think the key thing is that the fed is going to be data dependent. Constance hunter, always a pleasure. Thank you so much. You can see the and tire interview with Larry Summers on charlie rose on bloomberg tonight at 7 00 right year on bloomberg television. Coming up, building a better burger. Shake shack get set for their wall street debut. Shake shack shares next, when bottom line continues in a moment. Lets check bloomberg world news. Military forces from chad captured a nigerian border town that was controlled by bogota rom. Chad sent a warplane dropping bombs and Ground Troops to drive out the military group. It marks the first such action by foreign troops on military troops on foreign soil to fight boko haram. Boko haram has displaced about one million people. A bomb in pakistan has killed about 56 people. This is the deadliest act of antishiite violence in two years. Nato says it will send small units to six European Countries to help coordinate a socalled Spearhead Force in response to russian actions in ukraine. The force will be deployed in five areas. Natos move is to increase presence of warplanes in european airspace is. The alliance intercepted more than 400 russian aircraft last year. That is the latest world news. We will have another update in 30 minutes. Now, lets look at the wall street debut of shake shack. Shares more than doubled on its first day of trading. Shake shack raised more than 50 million in its first day of public trading in its initial public offering. Betty liu spoke with the hospitality ceo and the chief executive at the New York Stock Exchange and asked them how going public could affect the way they do business. This is our First Experience having public investors. We know that is a huge responsibility. I think the thing we will focus on is what we always do, cooking one burger at a time, creating one smile at a time. We are honored that so many people have an interest in our future, which is really bright and long. Other than that the one thing that does feel great to us is that so many of our employees are among our shareholders, and we are going to be working for them as much as anybody else on the street. I cannot help but notice that you are having an ipo the same week that the donalds struggles are glaring. Their ceo stepped down. Mcdonalds struggles are glaring. Their ceo stepped down. What lessons do you take from mcdonalds . I think what we see is a Seismic Shift in peoples expectations of food today. People one no hormones and no antibiotics in their burgers. My kids are going to grow up in a generation of people that are not going to see fast food the way i think it has been seen over the last decades. Those people want to go to a place like shake shack. We have helped define that. And that is what we will be doing for decades to come. I think we will capture that shift in behavior of todays consumer. If you are at mcdonalds, what would you advise them . I would not have any advice. I have not eaten there so long i do not have any perspective on the brand. I just went to echo what randy said. We are talking about burgers. Burgers have been around for a lot of years. Its not a trend. We didnt invent it. We wont be the first or the last to do this. What were trying to do with burgers if is say if you take something that the love and that simple and just do a few tweaks, the biggest being outed you source the beef, hire the staff how did you source the beef and higher the staff, people are attracted to that. Still ahead, super bowl officials try to deal with everything, but they are scrambling to deal with three counties that have an outbreak of measles. Those details when we continue in just a moment. Lets get to some of the other top stories we are following on this friday. Senate republicans have approved construction of the keystone xl pipeline. It sets up a long awaited fight with president obama, who has promised a veto. The house passed its own version of the bill earlier this month. Differences have to be resolved before a final version is sent to the president. Mr. Obama is calling for a move away from onesizefitsall medicine. He is calling for a Precision Medicine initiative. Scientists will assemble databases of about one million volunteers to study their genetics along with other factors such as their environments and the microbes that live in their bodies to learn how to individualize care. Costco is spreading the wealth. The warehouse chain is returning 2. 2 billion to shareholders through a special dividend. The payout is the first of its kind since december, 2002. That is a look at the top stories were following this friday. Health officials are scrambling to contain a Measles Outbreak ahead of the super bowl in arizona. Officials say at least 1000 people have been exposed to the contagious virus. Shelby hawley joins me in studio. How could this impact football fans . Your hundreds of thousands of people packing into hotels restaurants, the stadium on sunday. You have seven confirmed cases of measles in the same area where the super bowl is being played. Seven doesnt sound like a lot but measles is one of the most Infectious Diseases known to man. It is airborne. It is on surfaces. It is way more contagious than the flu. Health officials are alerting people and saying this is a risk. I was on a cdc call yesterday and talking to arizona officials. They dont appear to be too worried because of the people coming to the game it is not likely this is a concentration of unvaccinated people. That gives them herd immunity. Even if measles pops up, if you are vaccinated, you only have a 1 chance of getting measles. Measles was virtually eliminated from this country in 2000. Why are we seeing this resurgence . It all boils down to a trend called antifaxing. You may have heard of it. Parents are refusing to vaccinate their children. Some are worried about side effects. Whatever the case, they are refusing to vaccinate. We are seeing a spike in measles cases. 2014 was the worst year in years. 2015 as artie blowing off the charts. We have 84 confirmed cases and january has an even ended yet. We are seeing a spike in cases, and the interesting thing is this appears to be a first world irony. Its wealthier parents who are not vaccinating their kids. Of Public School kids in arizona, 3. 6 are not vaccinated. That rate is much higher in private and charter schools. Officials are trying to educate the public, but parents are worried about vaccines and they would rather run the risk of their kids getting measles than having long turn side effects and those are the challenges. They have to debunk the myths. Coming up, Super Bowl Ad preview. The price tag for a 30 second spot is 4. 5 million this year. We will look at which commercials are likely to score a touchdown with advertisers and the public on sunday. Welcome back to the second halfhour of bottom line on bloomberg television. Im Mark Crumpton. We are still talking shake shack shares. Advertisers are foraging the omen of surprise for free Media Coverage during the super bowl. Joining me, my guests. Brad, let me start with you. One of the most important terms in business is roy, return on investment. What are we looking at in terms of ads . Are the price of the super bowl commercials worth the payout . And arthur moore misses then hits . It is really the advertisers to determine if it is worth it or not. Super bowl as have increased 11 every year, which is certainly more than the advertising rates and that has to do with the mass audience that is there. A very affluent audience. The last five super bowls have been at five of the mostwatched Television Shows in history. Advertisers do think that is worth it. How much were talking investment that is another question. Generally within a couple weeks, people forget the ads. Are we seeing an Immediate Response because of the explosion of social media . You definitely get a response to certain ads. There was the one carls jr. Shot that offended people. I think people are tired of the sexy girl eating the hamburger. Then there are the movies that people are excited to see. The trailer for ted 2, terminator. Those have been top trending on facebook, social sites. They put those trailers on youtube in advance to build anticipation for game day. Brad, what goes into the making of a super bowl commercial . I think if you ask super bowl viewers outside of the game 46 says that is the important thing. 45 say it is the ads. What is unusual about the super bowl is people want to watch the ads like it is another television show. [laughter] the ranges between 5 million and 10 million. You have 60, 90second ads. You are paying 8 million dollars, 13 million. I do think that is part of it. Lucas weaver we were talking social media a few moments ago. How has social media made ads more relevant during the brief time they are on air . If there is one people particularly like or dislike, it becomes a dominant subject of conversation particularly if the game is not very good. What happens in the second half if seattle has a big lead and people want to tune out . But they will not because they want to see what the remaining ads are. Brad, we saw one company avoiding controversy. Go daddy breathing a sigh of relief. It seemed that they were supporting puppy mills. They have pulled of ad, so they are going to put another ad on super bowl sunday. Will this be the norm going forward, Companies Giving their ad a test run on social media before putting it on . Some companies do. Chrysler, which never released its ads they had Clint Eastwood do it. It is a matter of strategy. But certainly, go daddy got some pushback. It was a takeoff on a popular at last year, but the puppy ad got a lot of pushback. Go daddy it is kind of usual for them and Super Bowl Ads every year. Lucas, is this something we are going to see going forward, a test run like this . As i mentioned to brad, go daddy got immediate feedback. People were saying this is probably a little bit over the line. I really hope not. I cant speak for the major advertisers. There was this piece in new York Magazine righting about the resurgence and political correctness. I think go daddy kind of goes into that where the with the social media functions, there is immediate backlash. People will respond and they will take something down rather than weather the storm. They decided is not worth it. You could see that with future advertisers, but you have got to believe if youre going to sink money into an advertisement and paper to be in the super bowl you believe enough in it to stand by it regardless what people think about it. Thinking of groupon a couple years ago, no one had really heard of that company. They put their ad on youtube and got the pushback. The day after the super bowl what was that . Also some pregame buzz with tmobile. Will that translate into pure worship on sunday if so many people have seen it online viewership on sunday if summary people have seen it online . I think so. That goes to the value. That goes to the 4. 5 million they have invested in the ad. Tebow saying no contract, no problem. This year, you have rollover data. 10 years ago, it was rollover minutes, and now it is rollover minutes. It has been an advantage to add placement is there a better time to have your ad seen then other times . It used to be. They were lopsided, but it is still the mostwatched games ever and with the most popular ads, the puppy love ad from anheuserbusch ran way back in the second half. At i think only 5 of viewers really stay for the whole game because the score was so onesided. Lucas, nbc broadcasting the super bowl. Apart from the obvious, and audience that the network estimates will be over 110 million, what else is nbc stand to gain from this . In busy stands to gain the benefit for its other shows. Nbc stands to gain the benefit for its other shows. The super bowl is a platform that they can use to advertise new shows it was to find an audience for, shows that have been struggling where it wants to build the audience, and i think universal has five ads running. Its something where they can use that platform. Bloomberg entertainment reporter lukas shaw joining us from los angeles. Up next, the latin america report and a payment that was years in the making. We have the details. Welcome back. It is time for todays latin america report. The tenement in the Dominican Republic paid back almost all of the debt owed to venezuela for oil payments. It was made after a bond theyll last week. They immediately reduced the public debt by 3. 8 of prose to mistake product. The deal took a year of negotiations before it was an plate on tuesday complete on tuesday. Up next, encore your guide to the biggest newsmakers this week when bottom line continues. Its 45 minutes past the hour. Lets check bloomberg world news. Dramatic video of an explosion at a Maternity Hospital on the western edge of mexico city. The explosion caused most of the hospital to collapse and sent flames and smoke into the sky. Mexican officials said that the blast killed three people. Three people in serious condition him on more than 70 who were hurts. A sign that lessening the impact of the recession has taken precedence over stabilizing the ruble, which has fallen to record lows. Plunging oil prices have hit the russian economy particularly hard. Atop eurozone official said that there was no decision on what to do after the Greek Bailout Program runs out at the end of february. The comments came as greeces new radical left government looks to make good on promises to write off half of the countrys debt. That is a look at world news. We will have another update in 30 minutes. It is time now for the commodities report. Su keenan is in the newsroom with details area good afternoon. Good afternoon. We saw a master a massive closing rally in oil. Its just now settling out. A lot of it has to do with our reports on rip counts coming out at a threeyear low. Stockpiles climbed to the highest in three decades, but check it out. A report on that rig count at a threeyear low set off concerns that u. S. Production is slowing down. Others want to cut short or bearish positions before going into the weekend. There is at least one fund manager who warns what he thinks is a trap. Anthony royal. The most important point for investors is there is a lot of this information out there, not only on the socalled businesses, but there is the notion that oil prices are going to stay low for a long time. Absolute baloney. Absolutely ridiculous. I dont know about ridiculous. Analysts are saying the overall picture does remain negative. The chart tells the story. A shortterm bearish call that commodities will lag behind the markets over the next three months. Su that has not stopped gold from rallying. What is the story . Investors jumped into what they are calling a surprise rally. A lot of people who were bearish maybe have moved this way. Mark . All right, su keenan joining us with the commodities report. Thanks. For more on oil, alix steel joins me. She will be sitting in for trish regan on street smart. Second day of speculation almost 60 slump in the prices over the past seven months. It is going to slow production. Is it . Welcome to the first breaks in back to back rent production since thinks giving. The idea, the more they cut, the less they produce, which trims production. I tend to be a tad skeptical on that, because if you spend millions of dollars to make a new well, are you really going to stop, even though youre making less money . The idea that the back half of the year is when we see supply will come up, not so much yet. This on the heels of last year when we saw oil falling into a bear market. Right, absolutely. When you look at the big guys are they going to be able to keep up with capital plans question mark chevron said, no, they are cutting the buyback. They are slashing it so they can keep some money for expiration, because at the end of the day, you have to sell oil to make money. It is a very tentative position for them to do this in order to have enough to explore and produce, but save enough so they do not get burned with cash flow. We mentioned that you will be in for trish on street smart. Super bowl before we talk about the super bowl, which i know nothing about ah were going to talk about it. Im so excited. Are you going to be getting a super bowl education . I am and pimm fox will be with me, too, so there will be someone on set asking Smart Questions and that will be pim pimm. We are going to go to encore right now, but it probably will be a minute and a half. In a minute and a half, we will come back and you will say he taught me everything i know. We bet on this. We did. Here is encore. In fact it is not just the debt. It is the economic challenge of the country. We need the broad space of Economic Growth in the country. The debt is a very High Percentage of gdp. 10year grace periods. The Interest Payments are roughly the same as they are for spain or portugal and not dramatically higher than what you would think. The good news in the short term really is the fact that the economy has been growing strengthening, and that is manifesting itself in smaller shortterm deficits. That gives us some breathing room where we have these massive deficits and a lot of pressure in the past. However, the shortterm deficits were we see improvement really has never been much the problem is. What they face are these medium and longterm unsustainable debt levels. Greece has a new elected radical leader. We accept the outcome of that election. Now we have to see what the ideas of the leaders are in pursuing a path of reform and what they think about the commitments greece has made to creditors and international partners. Todays report was a good report, a solid report, up in double digits. However, if we look at the 2014 number, overall it was disappointing and just a tad higher than we saw in 2013. Overall new home sales activities. We do think that 2015 is going to be a better year. Ok. Tell them. He did it. He explained to me football in 90 seconds. I think i actually understand it. Do i ou 100 now . No you do not. Our producer said that we could use it at shake shack. Thank you, mark. Shake shack shares soared or something. We will have another edition of off the charts yeah, we are off the charts on the other side of the break. Year. Our chief markets correspondent scarlet fu shows us the arguments for and against in todays off the charts. Scarlet . The s p made more than 50 record highs last year. Is the record amount of borrowing a coincidence or conspiracy . We looked at leverage debt over the past few decades. We pulled that up here and you see three distinct peaks. 1999 before the dotcom bubble burst, and before the subprime mortgage crisis hit and actually late last year. That is gartman sees this as a bearish sign. He says this cannot be anything other than ominous. Others disagree. The yellow line there shows the s p 500. They overlaid it with the margin data and it is clearly a mover, mark. Scarlet what is a better way of considering the record bar wing in stocks . An analyst at strategic is Research Partners says you can look at it as a percentage of total market valuation. Thats one option. Another one he pointed out, look at the yearoveryear percent change in margin debt. We will pull this chart up. The show something a little bit different here. We still have the sites in 2000 and 2007. That matches up with our previous chart. If you look at the far righthand side of this chart, you do not have a peek there. What it shows instead is a rollover. Moderating growth. There is no design. It does show a slowdown in the growth of margin debt. Perhaps that is not so ominous. Scarlet, i am looking at that line with you and all of our viewers. The one that is all the way over on the right side of your screen what was causing that . It shows a slowdown in the gross margin debt, but the growth of margin debt, but it does not necessarily show that is accelerating. Any excess should show up there as well. He says one example of excess in the market would be stock splits. Apple was the other big high profile story in 2014, but on the whole it does not happen very often. You can track that with facebook in 1999 and 2000 when stocks were splitting all the time. Companies trying to reduce the initial value of their share price to more and more buyers. Before we go, i want to take the stock market back to the rally today. S p 500 is closing with a loss. This is actually this is only happened seven previous times. What happened in the previous times, stocks sell for the rest of the year, on average by 15 . They are followed by a recession on average seven months later. That could be a sign. Scarlet fu, with our market charts segment. We appreciate it. Get the latest headlines on bloomberg of the top of the hour on Bloomberg Radio and your tablet and streaming on bloomberg. Com. Im Mark Crumpton in new york. Thank you so much for joining us. Enjoy your weekend and the big game. I will see you street smart on street smart monday. I will see you on monday. Street smart with alix steel is next. Welcome to the most important hour of the session. Alix steel in for trish regan and this is street smart. Stocks under pressure. Investors concerned about the economies in russia and europe. I will be joined by bob from levine asset management. And do not miss it. Willy colon is here. Street smart starts now