Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line 20140417 : c

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line April 17, 2014

Peter cook and to liana gold on a roundtable toward deescalation of tensions. Lets go to geneva as secretary joinste cary kerry discussions on ukraine. Said it was kerry just the beginning, these talks today. The four parties, the United States, the european union, legallynd ukraine he armed illegally armed individuals in ukraine must disarm. They agreed that all government buildings that have been occupied in the southeast of the country must be freed. Some interesting agreements today. All of them very easy to verify. Said, if he did not see action by the russian side by this weekend, he will introduce more sanctions against russia. Thery special guest, foreign minister of ukraine joining us now to talk about this breakthrough, if we can talk about it today. Thank you for joining us. How big of aith deal is this. Does this mean that everybody can stop worrying about the situation in ukraine . The initial steps in the process of deescalation of the situation in ukraine. Concernedtinue to be about the activities of these paramilitary troops in ukraine. We are very much concerned of the deployment of Russian Troops on the ukrainian border. And we think that during the will be crucial in implementing this agreement that we reached today in the process of the situation. What is your hunch . Will the russians comply . Itself to bemitted part of this process are they support of the overseeing monitors. We are ready to start this process immediately. You also agreed that you ultranationalist groups of but also people who were in Independence Square who got used to carrying weapons and are still carrying weapons around the country, some of the factions in ukraine. Can you really pull that off . We have to start first from the regions where it is effective with terrorist activities. But i think ukraine has to get rid of this reference and it will do this. We sawe zones from here, putin speak here today. He said interesting things. He said that he hopes he will not have to send Russian Troops. You are skeptical. If we look on what is going on in western ukraine, it is the same as in crimea. That theo said southeast of the country used to be part of the russian empire. In 1922 did the soviet leadership arbitrarily give it to you train to ukraine. Some people say it sounds an awful lot like the pretext to go into crimea. It is a very worrying signal because we are now president putin is trying to rewrite the borders. Borders that are internationally recognized after the second world war. And after the dissolution of the soviet union. Russia and ukraine recognized each others borders. For history in the past, we have to realize what territory belongs to a country. It is very worrying. Thank you very much for taking the time. We will have to speak again next week to see if these people actually give up their weapons and leave the buildings. Hopefully. That would be a very good step. Right, live in geneva, thank you so much. With more on the talks in geneva and the next steps in the ukrainian crisis, i am joined by julianna goldman. She will travel to ukraine with Vice President biden next week. , has the white house had any reaction to todays developments . I just heard from an Administration Official who thought that the geneva talks went marginally better than expected but we are really in a weightandc mode right now. But how long should we expected take . A matter of days is what they are saying. The administration is somewhat notmistic but they are going into the stocks with high expectations. It will be a matter of days before they know whether or not this is progress and whether they will move forward with another round of sanctions. , does it seem they are really on hold at least for now . We definitely got that message from secretary kerry. We got the message before the stocks that, if there were not talks, here there would be substantial sanctions. If the product on paper does not turn into result on the ground in ukraine, the United States would be prepared to step forward with more sanctions. As for the european union, we are talking days, not weeks. The administration has working on two tracks. They have been working on the track of targeting putins inner circle, cronies, oligarchs and their entities. And then saving in their back pocket the sectoral sanctions. Heeding Russias Energy industry, hitting the Banking Industry as well. They say they are keeping that only if russia escalates, only if russia goes further into eastern ukraine. Ukraine, into seven what they call a full on invasion, is when they will bring on these sectoral sanctions. Theif they judge that geneva talks have not progressed , then they would impose the next round of sanctions of putins inner circle. Are they having any affect . Is this what brought Vladimir Putin to the table . That is the argument we have heard from some in the administration. These have isolated Vladimir Putin and made him think twice about the steps he has taken so far. We havent seen putin change anything on the ground. Have had aneve they impact in raising concerns about the russian economy. We heard the russian finance minister this week downgrade even a Economic Growth numbers for this year. That they perhaps will not grow at all. And they do believe that the sanctions have had an impact and the threat of additional sanctions on banks and access to the financial system, that those could take a further toll. Even though his popularity numbers are up in russia, those who keep an eye on the russian economy, they have Vladimir Putins ear as well. Have we heard about any possible Legal Assistance . They say the u. S. Is in a position to aid ukraine more when it comes to economic to help propping up ukraines economy. They said, if they were to send any militarytype assistance, they would send some troubling signals. It would say this as a proxy war between the u. S. And russia and it would also send a signal that the u. S. Thinks this can be solved militarily, which is certainly not what the u. S. Wants to be sending. There are members of congress who believe that legal aid is still in order here and some of the debate going there, you have republicans going to ukraine, a congressional delegation going to ukraine at the same time that joe biden will be there as well. Speaking of the Vice President s trip, why is he going . What is the purpose . Big picture, to show solidarity with the ukrainian people. Having the Vice President of the United States over there right now is hugely symbolic. That is what the administration is saying. Although he is also going there to tout the economic assistance. The treasury announced a billion dollars in loan guarantees this week. One of the messages that biden will be bringing there is that this money is not just for kiev but is also meant to help people in eastern and southern ukraine. Peter, you spent a lot of your time on the hill. What is the United States congresss position in all of this . Is there a bipartisan consensus that something needs to be done at this point other than just sanctions to ease the situation that is going on there . There is a bipartisan consensus that this is a compensated situation and that russia has done the wrong thing here. And that is about where the bipartisan consensus ends. There is bipartisan support for the new Ukrainian Government but there is disagreement within the Republican Party about how big a deal the ukraine is, how involved the u. S. Should be, with lethal assistance really should be on the table here. Some folks on the hill agree with the administration that that is not really the right thing to do at this point. Disagreementome that no one is really proposing an alternative to what the president has done so far. Thank you both so much. Coldweek on lyrical cap applico capital with al hunt i think in his mind, he thinks there will be some hollowing out of that government and reducing the ability of the government to really have a coherent state that they can control. I think that is his ultimate goal. I think he will continue to have his forces on the border. I think you will continue to agitate. And i think the United States and the west are at a disadvantage. Al hunt interview with the former defense secretary William Cohen on Political Capital at 9 00 p. M. Washington time friday night. Coming up, detroits road to recovery. Emergesalk with the from bankruptcy. Appears closer to reaching more grimace with creditors as it works to shrink its 18 billion debt. Jane gridley is the primary analyst for the city of detroit at Standard Poors Rating Service and she joins me now from chicago with more on the story. Welcome back to bottom line. And expense notwithstanding, where is the city of detroit right now in the bankruptcy process . We are somewhere along maybe about the middle, hopefully heading toward the end. The original schedule had said they would emerge very quickly, within about 14 months. We are winding down their. But the pace has really picked up the last couple of weeks with a lot of settlements coming in with some of the major creditors. , is there a possibility that despite all of the best intentions, the process of reemerging from bankruptcy that could negate any shortterm benefits is this basically surgery by scalpel or surgery by hacksaw . I think it could fall in either camp. Certainly the longer it takes, the more money it costs in terms of legal fees and other things. And the mormon the more time it will take for the city to get back to business as usual. The pace that it has been taking is quite a bit faster than we see normally in municipal bankruptcies. There are not a lot of them, but the ones we have seen draw out for quite a long time. This bankruptcy has to be wrapped up by october. But if its not, what then . Will the length of the process mean that perhaps more taxpayer dollars have to be used . It could if it extends beyond the end of the current Emergency Managers term. There could be some momentum loss, too. What we have seen with some of the settlements, with the unlimitednd and the tax geo bond holders, those are movingof things along and going a long way to bring creditors to the table. Some significant breakthroughs this way, most notably the city receiving the support of Pension Funds and the Retiree Group to reduce payout to thousands of former city employees. What impact will detroits plan of adjustment have on the city and on the Municipal Bond market if any . One of the things we have seen so far is the pensions having supplementary settlements. Again, most are pulmonary and it is not finalized and rolled on, that they could still change. But having it out there helps move the process along. The other important things we have seen include the settlement on the unlimited tax general obligation fun, the ability to tax an unlimited amount to repay that debt. One of the questions is whether that would be considered secured debt. The settlement they came to would have the court endorsing the idea that that is secured debt which makes a big difference in the bankruptcy process. Someere are still concerns, most notably foundations, philanthropists, the state of michigan they are supposed to pony up about 816 million to shore up pensions and perhaps, more importantly, to a lot of people there to save some of the citys art work because there had been some calls for art from the museum of detroit to be sold. Where are we in that . It is my understanding that is still underway, still in process. That was a key part of the pension, the agreement when the police and fire pension, that of theuld accept some cuts that they had inside the cost of living increases in order to make sure that the money is in the grand bargain is part of the settlement and is available to some of the more vulnerable retirees. What about the reputational damage to the city of detroit . How long does it take credit agencies and the credit markets to have confidence in detroit bankruptcy plan Going Forward . That is a really good question in terms of the credibility and the credit standing of an entity after emerges from bankruptcy. We will still be watching to see what happens in the rest of the bankruptcy process. Afterward,he rating willingness is an important part of our criteria. We will be looking to see come in terms of what the city could pay, has paid, what the landscape looks like Going Forward, are they going to be in a position to be able to pay on their pensions and other things and keep a structural balance. And those kinds of things are what will be key in terms of improving credit quality once they have emerged from bankruptcy. We have about a minute left. , know you are into specifics specifically what you see on paper, datadriven numbers, statistics. But if you could, talk to us about may and june when some of these deals have to be voted on. If they are not agreed to by a majority of some of these retirees, these pensioners, are we not back at square one . And then is the ball not been in the back strip the the bankruptcy judges court . Yes, that is a possibility. If they ask for a vote and do not get enough buyin from the creditors, then it would have to go back to square one. There is also the concept of fair and equitable. That is something that the judge has to rule on in terms of whether or not the plan does treat everyone fairly and equitably. Although the emergency manager is looking at how pensions are treated compared to how bondholders are treated, we still think from a musical standpoint that that is important. And it could also be important in the courts as well. Jane ridley, primary analyst for the city of detroit joining us from chicago. It is always a pleasure to have you on and get your expertise. Thank you for your time today. Coming up, we will take a look at the equity markets on this thursday. It is 26 minutes past the hour. Bloomberg television is on the markets. We actually have gotten a little leg up here on the market, a little bit more on the positive side. Weve got earnings of people are looking at today coming in better than expected. And people watching the situation, ukraine and the meeting over ukraine, very closely. Take a look at individual stocks that we are watching. First up, herbalife, shares of the Nutritional Supplement company he raced their earlier gains and now they are lower after illinois attorney general said an investigation is underway into consumer complaints that the company has an illegal permit structure following on the news that the fbi was looking into the companys practices. We are looking at morgan stanley. A 9 increase in net income trading revenue. We will have more on the markets in 30 minutes. More bottom line coming your way next. Welcome back to the second halfhour of bottom line on bloomberg television. Lets check some of the top stories at this hour. Coast guard officials in south korea say 179 people survived the sinking of a fairy off the countrys southern coast. There were 475 people on board, mostly high school students. But right now, the confirmed death toll stands at 9. One crew member said people were not told to evacuate until 30 minutes after the ferry began lifting. And some survivors said they never heard an evacuation order. Sean kearns, rain and Poor Visibility are hampering rescuers for searching for the 300 people still listed as missing. Investigators in the search for Malaysia Airlines flight three that an that 370 Say Oil Slick was tested negative for aircraft oil or hydraulic fluid. The oil was collected earlier this week from a slick about three miles from the area where it equipment picked up underwater sounds consistent with an aircraft black box. There was hope that the oil would be evidence that officials are looking in the right place managed en route from kuala lumpur to beijing. Jobless claims continue to be near prerecession levels despite the slight increase. Applications are a proxy for layoffs. The current level of claims suggest that employers are holding onto their workers with the expectation of stronger Economic Growth ahead. That is a look at the top stories in the news at this hour. We should be vastly impatient. This has gone on. If you said in 2007 that more than six years after the recession begins we would still be talking about an economy with high unemployment, sluggish job growth there hasnt been a single month that i can remember where we created as many jobs as we did during an average year during the clinton administration. This is crazy. The idea that they should be considered an acceptable pace of harbors is really, really wrong. Paul krugman discussing current u. S. Economic conditions with tom keene. The congressional budget office, congresss nonbudget scorekeeper, has reviewed the obama 2015 budget and the results are in. Yang yang is in washington with the details. No major surprises in this latest cbo scorecard. Budget requests would boost tax revenues and in turn cut deficits. If enacted, taxes over the next decade would increase by nearly 1. 4 trillion and deficits would be cut a little over one dollar trillion. That is over 1 trillion. When you look at the baseline and the residents plan sidebyside, you see the deficit as a percentage of gdp would actually be higher over a threeyour period under the obama budget and then lower for years 2017 to 2024, staying close to 3 compared to the baseline 4 . So the president s plan has that going for it. It cuts the deficit by 1 trillion over 10 years but it would only keep with current deficit trends. The white house came out with its own projections when it was released last month. How does that stack up with the cbo . Under the obama budget to be more than 6 trillion over the next decade. That is over a trillion dollars more than t

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