Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Asia Edge 20140818 : comparemela.c

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Asia Edge 20140818

Data points making big changes in the course of the overall trading session. Far, the standard has dan the Chinese Market has been the Chinese Market. Home prices are continuing to cool on the mainland property. I will be back a bit later on. Back to you. Chinasmarket Property Market is feeling the pinch, more cities to a hit with. Alling prices, it has gone up by nine cities. It was 55 in june that saw falling prices. It is 54 in july. Up from 4 . , that is deftly concerning. Four years of restrictions. We have seen rising mortgage rates. We have seen restrictions on buying homes. Locals cant buy multiple homes as freely as they could. Restrictions right across the board. The july new home prices falling. N 64 cities in china ingely tier one beijing. There is one developer seeing thats making money but seeing slower growth. Stocks are actually down. The market is really changing their sentiment. Chinas biggest developer by 5. 5 . Rose they sold more small or medium homes. This is the crucial bit of it. Number of homes less than 1500 square feet. The restrictions of buying homes again dont hit them as badly as the other companies who look to build bigger spaces. This developer is focused on owneroccupied, for the resilience in the Property Market. But even they are seeing declines. The overall market is being hit by four years of restrictions. You cant just make money closing your eyes. You have to go for strategy. Thailand facing recession and months of political unrest. Haslinda. 4 growth, i think we were looking at a flat picture. You are right. What a really afford thailand. No recession, which is defined as a back to back contraction. Two q number coming in at. 4 from a year ago. Ht rose to a threeyear high. Exports have fallen four out of six months. They thought that would eat into growth. But now there are signs of recovery. Ansumer confidence, take look, the highest in 11 months in july. The government has taken positive measures. Date paid money to farmers, 2. 5 billion in total. It also capped fuel subsidies. It has outlined plans for a new government. Elections are due late 2015 at the earliest, later if the situation is unstable or worse and. The economy will unstable or worsens. The economy will improve. Now the gdp is looking at 2 . Notwithstanding, pretty much optimistic signs from here on. Gdp in the Second Quarter coming ear. T. 4 year on y we are expecting a new Prime Minister to be announced on friday. It seems as though it does not really matter. What are you hearing . As long as the economy shows signs of a pickup, a momentum, it does not matter who is in charge. Is already that returning to the market. Look at the latest gdp figures. From here on, it does not really matter. People are beginning to gain confidence. Consumers are gaining confidence. The economy should be getting tight pretty soon. Islets see how all of this affecting the trading decisions. About. 2 . P this is what you have for the regional benchmark. One of the best places to put your money is here. Third bestperforming market in asia. That is what you have as far as the currency is concerned. Baht strengthening today. The region and the market in thailand. Mining, paper materials, banking are all coming on stream, helping that index out. Now what is happening on the shanghai composite, aside from gdp, lori also have property prices coming out. New home prices falling. Far is what has happened so in the morning session on the shanghai composite. After the prices came out, we have come back down. An 8. 5multi. 8. 5month high. Financials are down about. 1 . More are falling that are rising. We can go through these numbers. You want to look at the season cities that you see the most declines. Let me give you five. Of might want to stay clear Property Developers who have exposure to those five cities. Perhaps losing a bit of momentum. Back to you. Lets take a look at some other stories making headlines for you. Oh cdc is selling shares. To fund the purchase of hong kongs wing hang bank. Alibaba may face at his scrutiny from u. S. Regulators ahead of its ipo. Accountingoking at irregularities in their film unit. Alibaba pictures remains suspended in hong kong trading. Shares of Chugai Pharma are rallying in japan. It is a 15. 5 . The 10 billion deal will give them full control of Chugai Pharma. Still to come, australia, home of sunny skies and sandy beaches and misery. The reason they are feeling down down under. Nded months of unrest. More on that coming up. We saw. 4 e growth theyre in thailand for the economy. Would be aght it picture of stalin gdp growth. Stalling gdp growth. I was in bangkok to were three days ago. The expectation was for a shy decline in gdp for the end of the year and a recovery in the second half of the year starting to see that coming through. It wasnt really a massive impact of the coup had. Brought a measure of stability that has perhaps improved some of the business environment. , in thecompanies said first half of the year, they did not see the slowdown. But it means that maybe the picture is a little bit more broadbased in terms of growth in thailand and not just bangkok. The index is up. 4 since the coup. Is it time to investor have we missed the boat . We are overweight on taiwan. If you look at valuations, it is key. 25 up year to date. Very strong, yeah. So valuations are not strapped yet. The baht is strengthening as well. That might be a bit of a headwind going ahead. Going forward, we are looking for dollar strength. I know you are familiar with that part of the world. How does thailand fit into an equity or photo if that all equity portfolio if it all . L there are three markets that we like, china, thailand, and indonesia. For us, thailand and indonesia. Philippines is too expensive. Excitingis not overly with potential rate increases coming later this year. Then lets talk about indonesia a little bit. Wi. Have mr. Jaco nexter he will be the resident, he is the president elect, he is being challenged for that position. Any chance of him actually winning . We will find out on friday. There have been a couple of hearings in the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has indicated they want to see more proof. Last week, papers had the impression that they were not convinced yet. Jakowi isooks like able to pass through. At the noises he is making. He said that fuel subsidies must be reduced. This done straight away while he has a mandate, i. Uppose that has already indicated he you would look at these fuel subsidies. At the moment, he has some working groups established. If you look at the working groups, they look at Pharma Health care and indonesia, the hot Indonesian Health program. That way you need to cut it somewhere else do you think it is a good value, the equity market now . The indonesia value is not as obvious. Trade at a little john us form our discussion a little bit later. Other storiesme making headlines around the world, police in ferguson, missouri, have come under fire been shots of tear gas has broadcaster in the world. You see protesters about to defy another curfew interested instituted for 12 00 midnight tonight. Protesting the death of an 18yearold man who shot unarmed, surrounding surrendering to police. This is a very market different strategy from the periods the previous few nines when Police Watched as stores were looted yesterday. Easy tear gas and rubber bullets fired. Video of tonight where things are much more calm. We are only five minutes away from that midnight curfew in ferguson. The latest ceasefire in gaza entered its final day today as negotiations continue in tyro. Israeli troops remain on the border and the army has been told to repair for resumption of the ground defensive. Hamas is demanding an end to the sevenyear blockade of gaza before it agrees to a longterm deal. In liberia say they fear a surge in cases after an angry mob ransacked a an again the capital monrovia. They stole several items that could be infected, including medical equipment and bloodstained bedding. The mob is angry that ebola patients were brought to the clinic from other parts of the city. 13 more survivors have been found two days after a tourist boat sank in southern indonesia. 10 people, including at least six foreigners were rescued on sunday. Now eight tourists, their translator, and four strong indonesian crew have been picked up. Two tourists remain unaccounted for. We will get more from our guest later in the program. Chinese banks are selling stock in record numbers. Joining us for the vicious cycle it has created. Take a look at some of the headlines in the corporate world. Voted for aia strike. Unions want management to include bonuses as a part of their base wages. Softbank is said to be launching a new phone. It will start in japan and then offer it the u. S. Through sprint in september. U. S. Regulators say they will lowendm to sell its service to lenovo. The deal will give lenovo a bigger slice of the global computer hardware market. To focus on growing areas, including the cloud. Chinas biggest banks are facing their weakest Profit Growth in 10 years. Fromhere is more pressure direct share sales. The weakest profit and 10 years is the forecast for these banks. They begin reporting tomorrow. Icbc, bank of china, adding inc. , more on that in a second. Share sales, record will dilute earnings overall. They are to sell more stock than in combination of the u. S. And european banks. It settles banks with the pressure of the expense of Dividend Payments goo. Dragging their profits. They are already constrained by rising bad loans. Earnings forecast are a confined 7 . 150 billion, twice of the u. S. Banks at 70 billion, and three times the word of the year he and top five banks at 47 million. We have to be mindful that many of these Stateowned Enterprises here, that his government dollars. It is stimulus dollars that worked back in 2008. Press right. Right. s transparency is absolutely crucial. Watch out for any comments about that. Thank you so much for that. Trading in sydney, lets take a look right now. The Sydney Opera House and a. Ook right now is. 1 higher we have seen gains but it has slipped in the red zone in korea. We are seeing a lot of fluctuations in asia today after a fiveday advance here in hong kong, down. 5 . We are looking forward to the afternoon business in tokyo. Protests in ferguson, missouri, where there is less than 90 minutes from now for the curfew. Shanghai is the loan market again or with stock 78month high. Atthe winter with stocks an eightmonth high. And the winter of their discontent. Japan coming back from the break. We picked out what was exciting, very few big movers. Still earnings coming through. , its biggest , the company came out and denied talks are ongoing but you can see markets think otherwise. Tokyo testimonial tokyo tatemono is raise from underperform to outperform. They doubled their price target for the stock. Tokyo electron up over 4 . This is out of a report this morning that Tokyo Electron with the company it is merging with, applied materials, that is coming up in what they call a remedy plan, an advanced notification. Singapore coming out some performance metrics. Up a fraction. Oh cbc announcing share sales. Ocbc announcing share sales. Singapore was oversold this morning. Oving averages james hardie was a big drop on friday. A few performance metrics were announced this morning but they did set aside over 400 million condensation. New crest mining had a big loss. Down 10 an ounce on friday. I think we are down a further five dollars last i checked. Newcrest mining is trading 11 a pop. Dark clouds over sydney today. Be gathering nationwide with the misery index. Lets get over to paul allen right now. The weather still looks pretty loomy, just like people sentiment out there. Explain. Inflationhe rate of lusty unemployment rate. It wasnt actually too bad in australia. We now have a misery index of 9. 4 , which is the worst of that australia has had since 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed. It is ad say that oneoff because of the and implement figure and the unemployment here is notoriously unpredictable. But then again, if you consider some of the background, with the reserve bank of australia already lowered its growth forecast, the certainly high currency, the often talked about end the mining moon and wage growth, private sector wage growth on the lowest on record i guess there are a few reasons to feel less happy than usual. So the the misery index is bad. What can be done about it . , it is a can imagine good headline grabber. You can ensure that some Political Capital will be made of it. Of course, the reserve bank of australia is desperately trying to stoke the Housing Construction boom. We will be hearing more from when stevens this week when he addresses parliament. More of the rba plan to stimulate the australian economy. But it is not all that bad. If you look at the misery index as a whole, australia is all the way down at the bottom of the list. Number one is venezuela, followed by south africa, followed by greece. So australia is not bad when you see it in that context. But it could be better when you think of the three countries with the best results, switzerland. Thanks. Newcrest mining, we saw a loss of 2 billion. We have a share price under pressure of about 1. 1 . We have done petrie who has the background on all of this. I did a whole lot of Building Construction during this Great Bull Run in gold. Remember when gold was 2000 u. S. Now, it has come down somewhat. They came in at a 2 billion loss. The reich and a significant. The writedown was significant. A loss is a loss. The gold price, what do they need it at . Five or six years ago, it was a dollar and a half. They inherited some efficiencies and they need to do some costcutting. It will be tough times ahead. They do have a good gold deposit. The goldottom line is price would be hovering around [indiscernible] but the 2 billion loss, terrible results. A goes to show you will be punished if you get into the improper thinking that the good times will roll on forever. Thank you. A look at some of the other stories we will be following for you this week. Bhp reports on tuesday. Pushing prices down. A 25thsts expect straight month of deficit as Companies Move production overseas hurting exports. The end of the week is usually important for two members. Courtsias constitutional is due to deliver its ruling on the president ial election. Alleges widespread fraud. It is very unlikely that . That . Victory winjoko widodos will be contested. Teargas again being broadcast around the world. The midnight curfew is less than 90 minutes away. That people did refuse to go home on sunday. We can head over to ferguson. We are hearing more reports of violence. You are at the scene. What can you tell us of that . Yes, i am at the scene. There has been more teargas news. There is a helicopter in the air. There are several Police Officers in riot gear. We are hearing rumors that shots were fired. This is similar to what happened yesterday when shots were fired. The police came through with a very strong presence. Now they have cleared the entire scene. The media are cordoned off away from where most of the police are. But the streets that were full of protesters 24 hours ago are now completely clear except for dozens of police cars and a helicopter above our heads. Reports aboutme an autopsy taking place. We also heard about firebombs being used and molotov cocktails this evening. What can you tell us. I have heard those reports as well. I think the police have reacted to what they say has been violence against them and violence within the crowd. They moved in and it is possible that some of the agitators within the crowd used molotov cocktails. Nontoxiclso about a that was released to the New York Times by the family of Michael Brown that says the teenager was shot six times. We are not clear about where he was shot but that is the autopsy that was released to the New York Times by the family. Tummy something. Tell me something. The governor has come under criticism. Why . Some people criticize the governor for taking several days before reacting and responding to what is a pretty bizarre scene of ridestyle please in the middle of a middle american city. Have come against the governor saying that he imposes curfew which basically make things even worse. So he is getting a lot of criticism. He is trying to allow people to protest while also maintaining the peace. It hasnt been successful because there has been violence. There has been protests that have been broken up by riot police. Tonight, the scene is pretty chaotic. Another disappointing scene for anyone who was hoping for a peaceful night. Much. Nk you very still to come, new home prices falling in nearly every city in china. We will have a closer look with our guests in our all in discussion. Welcome back. Jenny me are the david, john, and joining me are david, john, and harold. Prices,a property nothing is going right there. We like china for various reasons. China property prices are coming off. It is a softer adjustment. They have so many tools. We have these curbs in many cities were so many have been removed. But there are more weapons in the armory if they want to control or manage the Housing Price situation. As prices they will soften. We already see this taking place. But ite is a risk factor does something for the moment you can live with. Is that good is bad news good news . Or bad news in that china is going to perhaps add more stimulus . Toi think they also want lower the lower end of the curve. That sends bad news. Not too bad news. There could be supporters. I think there is a lot of uncertainty. Clear nationwide statistics. There is oversupply. We know that. Supplyur pockets where and demand remained relatively good. Which figure do you Pay Attention to . For us, it is a series of numbers. It is the tier one cities versus the tier two cities. Probably key data we focus on every month is p. M. Im. Pmi.

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