Market is positive by 0. 2 percent on the s p 500. Hours away from chairman powell and the News Conference. Tom it is a different it is changed outlook to the press conference that it was 48 hours boko ago. Jon it is not seven, it is six. It is not seven. The bad news, it is 6 inflation in the u. K. Lisa this is a positive but how much of a positive. The key distinction is the core measure came in much more than expected so stripping out food and energy, how much will we be talking about the difference between core and what you feel when you go to the store . Tom we are there when we are slicing and dicey like David Rosenberg. What you do with inflation and disinflation but the Central Banks torah centralbank story with me jon the highs going into this bad decision, crude we are right their own crude so the headline versus core conversation, how do they navigate that in the News Conference . Lisa at a certain point, oil feeds into that, the question is how much is this driven by demand . Can you be bullish on oil without being bullish on the economy and are you seeing the growth which is the reason why people say yields are going higher and oil is going higher but it is doing so because there is that demand and strength. Tom the heart of the matter gloom crew has gotten it wrong, there is a resiliency to corporations and market arches offense working in a new Interest Rate environment. I looked at the 10 year real Interest Rate, it is that 1. 9 x level, to go to 2 will be a change. Jon are you throwing shade at grandma bramo . Tom i am not throwing shade. There was inflation in the crumbs i put out the farthing, and it didnt go as far as it used to go. Jon amazon, holiday hiring, bramo, 250,000 logistic workers. Lisa to me, this is important and there are people who say this is because more of the shopping is going online. Maybe people dont want to drive because gas is getting expensive but you are looking at a robust projection for the Holiday Season at a time where people are worried for that savings cushion supposedly going away, where is that . If amazon is hiring that many more workers and offering 1000 3000 versus. Bonuses . Jon lets turn to the price action come on the s p 500 this morning, good morning to you come up by 0. 2 on the as a fee, yields pulling back. 0. 2 percent on the s p, yields pulling back. If you want to blame something, the move started after canadian cpi, which was down to canada and a yesterday session. Lisa they came in lower than expected, similar to the u. K. The focus will be on the that decision followed by jay powell s press conference. A hawkish posh would pause is what we will be talking about. We are going to be here. 1 30 p. M. Eastern or 6 30 p. M. Heat british time. Jp morgan Ceo Jamie Dimon speaking at the Detroit Economic Club at 1 p. M. And i and curious how much they indicate that strength has further room to go. Do they push back against that at a time where it seems like you are getting raises and can push forward . Jon i am interested in the fact that it is in detroit. Lisa president darren, president jamie dimon, do you think he is going to do this . How much will he wait in on this . We have earnings from fedex which has gotten abu sofar this year from yellow and ups as some negotiations there with the unions. I am curious on what they say about the labor. Jon joining us now is then laser ben laisler. You are the master of what can go right. What could go right . Ben do you want me to give you the whole list . Jon is it that long . Ben wrote this a lot better than it was and core inflation continues to fall and i am comfortable that that will continue. That is taking the biggest risk off the table. The fed will have to keep hiking. That is gone and the earning cycle is turning up and it doesnt have very much to do with the real economy, it is very tech lead, inflation is falling off to take the pressure all Profit Margins and probably the third and least important one is that the economy is hanging in there so look forward to next year which i think will drive the Fourth Quarter rally. Dump return to double digit Earnings Growth and the fed and the rest of the world calls Interest Rates and keeping valuations have. Tom i want to gotom twoyear process. The dovetail is important. You saved the role wall of worry remains high. In 2018, what was your process to push against the wall of worry . What is the process to stay bullish and resilient . Ben you have to look at what really matters. There is always a wall of worry in the day it isnt, we are complacent. We are worried about bond yields, 4. 4 , even though we are getting no validation uaw strike, a third of u. S. Manufacturing is autos but we probably need a slow down and you can say the same about potentially a Government Shutdown. It is an on off the road unorthodox they way to slow the economy but maybe that is what we need. Lisa i specialize in worry and i will tell you herpes person after person, have come on the show and displayed a lack of worry. Does any of the stuff catch her eye and make you think that maybe we could see some of the side effects pick up next year . Ben it is likely. But now the atlanta fed is nearly 5 . Unheard of and that will slow from here, the impact of 5 fed rates is coming. It is delayed because corporates are refinanced and mortgage holders have 30 year fixed rates but it is coming and the slowdown will come except it is a southland soft landing. Lisa are you saying the slowdown has been price in but do you see it coming in the prices in a certain pockets, not in the text in the u. S . Ben the market is nibbling at them but they are not running away with you and that is your biggest tell, the market doesnt think the growth story is sustainable and this keeps me in wrong direction and i know some wrong direction assets have been a tough slog but i believe the underlying pressures of inflation will ease. Stay long techs and bonds. Jon stay out of europe . Ben for now but europe will be the surprise next year. Germany is miserable right now but give six months and im sure we will talk about the german economy. Jon is that an ethics trade or equity trade . Ben it is probably equity trade. Waiting for the cuts tom im has been very good on this, the leverage luxury john has been very good on this, the luxury pullback. Have we had a correction even if it is not a market spx correction . Have we had a substantial enough correction where we say there is value . Ben we are seeing it. We are seeing you mention amazon, people are shopping online and they want to save money and they are shopping less for luxury and less in department stores. Credit depended items so there is a lot going on under the surface and you are seeing that play out and eight luxury and you are seeing that play out in luxury. Jon what are you hearing from tom what you hear from institutions what are you hearing from institutions . Ben as have been late to this party and the rally institutions heavily to this party and the rally. Retail has been out front and never gave up. Jon why is that . . Tom why is that . Ben sentiment has moved a long way. To the extent people are bearish, what are the reasons, you have a fourthquarter catch of and people look at the year ahead and think do they really want to be carrying 5 cash . Tom that is the classic laidler lisa farm. Lisa laidler charm. Lisa is that basically what that means, anything that comes in disappointing come up the balance of risk is we cannot do anything . Ben i think they will do 25 basis point less insurance hike. I am not writing champagne open if inflation rate is only a 6 in the u. K. It is a step in the right direction, market straight on the incremental data point and they will watch their weight and everyone is data dependent. If the amount the numbers dont come through, maybe there is a hike there but the base case is one more hike and they are done. Jon ben laidler there. Rishi sunak, the risk Prime Minister under pressure supposedly because he is going to push up the ban of gasoline vehicles back to 2035 instead of 2030, the first question i have this morning, who is next . It is the reality check for everyone. Tom it is almost their secondary theme on this that day wednesday because it is important to see the retreat of police in the u. K. , it has taken be the excesses out. Lisa our practical level, the policy uncertainty for big auto manufacturers continues and ford came out and said we are making this you Huge Investment on electric vehicles, you have to stay the course with your incentives and plans. Tom there is a lot of electric vehicles in london. Jon they are expensive. How are we having conversation of a cost of living prices at the same time Patrick Armstrong coming up in the next hour. Your equity mocked equity market positive, from london, good morning. The first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created or destroyed. but it can be passed on to the next generation. when the day that lies ahead of me seems impossible to face a lovely day lovely day lovely day lovely day a bank that knows your business grows your business. Bmo. Oh booking. Com, im going to somewhere, anywhere. A beach house, a treehouse, honestly i dont care find the perfect Vacation Rental for you booking. Com, booking. Yeah. I dont think this one is going to be a major oil strike either. I think we are going to find the demand response pretty quickly to these price hikes and it slows down oil prices, come back down dramatically , not dramatically but they come back up. Jon the commodity market we are 0. 8 on brent. The call on this program earlier this week, amrita sen looking for triple digits. On the equity s p 500, positive by 0. 2 . On the 10 year, 4. 3427 and we are down a single basis point and there is move in crude. Tom still elevated to say the least and they are 18 shades of crude above that including brent crude. Because of time, we will get to this. He is encyclopedic on global oil, his book, won all sorts of words and he joins us here with this great effort for bloomberg news. Javierm my book of the year javier, my book of the year. The single best chapter is ns huge clarity on saudi arabia. What does the new saudi arabia look like in terms of oil . What is mbs doing on oil we need to know about . Javier when you think of the new saudi arabia, you think of the two words used for saudi arabia today, saudi first. That shaped oil and geopolitical shapes oil and geopolitics. On that sense, they really want to keep prices as close as they can to 100. They say they dont target oil prices. The truth is they do target oil prices, do supply demand and inventory and they are trying to keep prices as close as 100 and that is what is good for saudi arabia and that is why it is called saudi arabia first. Tom that will reduce demand . If we have a dollar gasoline in the u. K. , if we have five dollar plus gas in the u. S. , does it reduce demand . Javier they could reduce demand and contribute to higher inflation and higher Interest Rates and lower Economic Growth so the saudis have played a difficult game of how hike they cant get without triggering the negative consequences and so far, it has been good for them and their is talk about wake up demand. This recession and a wall street that has been coming for the last couple years, demand is fine. Demand has increased your on your by about 2 million borrowers away a day. The saudis are running on Interest Rates but so far is working for them. Jon are you seeing saying they have a high tolerance for economic stress abroad . Javier i think so. The saudis well will have acted. At the moment, they are not picking up the phone the way they used to because they have put in it all i think that if the u. S. Is suffering, the saudis will say you need to do something about it. Jon what do you think underpins that change, that breakdown in the phone call they used to happen between the white house and rhia . Javier saudi arabia needs the money. He needs the money. Jon it is finance . Javier a lot of it is finance and a lot is national politics. I was going to react earlier this year and there is a new capital emergence. There were 60 construction cranes. Lisa it raises the question, if they are looking for targeting 100 a barrel, does that mean oil prices can remain high even without the growth to underpin it . Basically saudi arabia will cut production enough to achieve that regardless of the backdrop . Javier the economy cycle will always play a role. If the economy leaders weekends this year, the saudis will have to accept lower prices. That in part goes to accommodate a huge increase in uranium production, not making much noise but iran is the secondlargest source of Incremental Oil supply into the market so the saudis have accommodated that and they capped production. They are going to try to Keep Oil Prices as close as 100 as they can and lets not forget, for saudi arabia and the benchmark they can, the price is already at 100. Lisa there is a question about other areas of election, in particular, the u. S. Which has been serving a record amount of production and there has been question about how much that cant increase. How much is that a swing factor that can alter the price . Javier we have seen the price of wti and texas has gone above 90 and we need to see an increase in the recount in the u. S. But fairly, there is a question whether we will see more u. S. Production at the moment when we are beginning to see a plateau. Tom we are in davos. Javier bloss walks in and the room falls silent and in the table, there is someone of bank of america and she has her s p call today. She did really it mathematics on esg. Is there a new esg . When you see richie sunak in london capitulate, is there a new esg . Javier we saw esg 18 months ago and i call it a bubble. We have seen Prime Minister rishi sunak waffle on the commitment on net zero and im i think we will see more leaders it will be costly. The easy part has been gone. Until now, it was winwin, green and cheaper and now it is more difficult. It is a lot of tradeoffs and it will be green but more expensive and we have not yet had that conversation with the voters. We said everyone to everyone this is great and it will save the cop the climate and now it is a different conversation. Jon a question i asked this morning, who is next . Who will push out some of these charges targets . Javier we have seen japan within the g7 and i think that germany and france have really jon javier blas of bloomberg. This from goldman, k Interest Rates happy. They save the wheel we want to keep rates on hold tomorrow, consensus for tomorrow is a hike from the bank of england, 25 basis points and we spoke to one guest who suggested you get a hawk in, they may go to 50. Maybe after the downside supply surprise as the bank of england ask away. Lisa if you think about it, this is counterintuitive. If inflation is coming down, shouldnt it be stronger . This is where the currency differentials are raising questions. Jon it leaves the estimation, you lose the rate support and at the twoyear down 13 basis point and sterling weaker off the back of it. Tom you are paid in sterling and you care about it. [laughter] we have someone on the other day talking about parity, you turn white. Jon air t on the eurodollar, not sterling parity on the eurodollar, not sterling. Your equity market more broadly on the s p, positive by 0. 2 , if Federal Reserve decision later on the bank of england tomorrow, Goldman Sachs has no hike says no hike. At pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined Risk Management are needed most. Drawing on deep expertise across the worlds public and private markets in pursuit of longterm returns. Pgim. Our investments shape tomorrow today. So, youve got the power of xfinity at home. Now take it outside with xfinity mobile. Like speed . Its the Fastest Mobile Service around. With the best price for two lines of unlimited. Only 30 bucks a line per month. Thats hundreds in savings a year when you wave bye to the other guys. All on the most reliable 5g network nationwide. 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Since starting golo and release, i have dropped seven pant sizes and ive kept it off. Golo is real, our customers are real, and our Success Stories are real. Why not give it a try . Jon new price target from bank of america, 4600, up from 4300. More on that upgrade later, on the nasdaq features positive here by 0. 4 . Several central centralbank decisions coming. The thing that changed over from the boe. Bowman the first out of the gate to say we are done, no hike come tomorrow morning. Lets turn the the bond market. To guilt in america in in the treasury market north of 5 and close to circling highest. A new cycle high on the 10 year, short of that now. Down a basis point or two. I want to finish on foreignexchange, the euro is shaping up as follows against the dollar, 1. 07 and positive by 0. 2 . That is the cost the process of pricing and the fed expected to hold rates at todays 2 00 p. M. Decision. Chair powells News Conference kicks off at 2 30 and our coverage