World business report. Over a barrel. Can opec fire up the price of oil without fuelling its us shale rivals . Plus no rupee regrets. Indias Finance Minister defends his decision to scrap the countrys most popular banknotes. He tells us why the days of cash in hand are over. Welcome to World Business report. Im sally bundock. Also coming up a record close again on the s p500 how are markets trading in asia . Well be getting the latest from the region. We start with the price of oil. It affects us all and its future direction could be decided later today at a meeting of the worlds top producers. We are talking about opec, the organisation of the Petroleum Exporting countries. Thats the Gulf Countries led by saudi arabia, as well as others including iraq, iran and nigeria. They have been joined by non opec member russia and they are expected to announce a deal later today to try and push Prices Higher. Lets show you the details. In December Opec and non opec countries agreed to cut production by 1. 8 Million Barrels per day about 2 of the global total to try and push the price up. Those cuts were for a six month period which expires soon. They are now expected to extend the cuts for another nine months or possibly longer. Look at this graph of brent crude and you will see why. The price surged in december when those Production Cuts were agreed. But its been volatile since then and struggling to hold onto those gains. It now stands around 54 a barrel. Russia can cope with this level moscow has based its budget on 40 per barrel. But the biggest opec producer saudi arabia wants 60 per barrel. Heres the big problem they have. Shale Oil Production in the us fell sharply when prices hit rock bottom so it just wasnt worth their while. Now prices are higher they are back in a big way and their technology is improving. You can see us production has surged by a Million Barrels a day over the past year, adding to a global oversupply of oil. Earlier, saudi minister was confident. Translation all the countries within opec, which i have talked to have agreed on a nine month extension. Definitely there is no need to talk to all the 2a member states, however, i do not expect any objection within opec to be the issue, but the decision will not be finalised until opec meeting on may 25 when all the countries sign on the extension decision. Colin smith is director of oil and gas research at panmure gordon. Good morning. Give us your take . Are we looking at a deal today . Yes, it looks likely there will be a rollover and all nine months rather than six. Compliance from opec has been pretty good but us oil has been surging and that is one of the Major Concerns the market has. If you look at where opec is producing at the moment, it looks like the world is about a Million Barrels a day short so we about a Million Barrels a day short so we should be seeing signs of that effect. But what is dependent is what us production does and what happens in libya and nigeria who are not subject to the cuts that applied to everyone else. In terms of the price, what impact would a nine month roll over have . Would us production be encouraged all the more bass i think it will. Do not think this rollover will push Prices Higher than we have stopped what will make a difference is as we go forward into the second half of the year, how much more volume do we get out of the us and to restart the seat even trees falling in the way that supply demand valances suggest we should. If that is the case, but are we looking in terms of the new normalfor are we looking in terms of the new normal for oil . I think the new normal for oil . I think the new normal could be in the mid 50s or a little bit higher. There are possibly early signs that continuous growth and productivity is beginning to roll over a little bit so that is the big question. Whether this rings so the big question. Whether this rings so much new us production that it overwhelms the market as it did in the run up to 2013. Overwhelms the market as it did in the runup to 2013. As and when we hear of a deal where will update you. Oil prices have been on the rise in asia ahead of that meeting. Rico hizonis following the markets for us in singapore. The prices of oil in midday territory, we currently in positive territory. Reduces within and outside opec are expected to extend a Deal Cutting Output and lifting the price of crude. Analysts feel us producers could spoil the party. Brent crude trading at about 55 cents, above 1 . More than 50 cents, up cents, above 1 . More than 50 cents, up1 cents, above 1 . More than 50 cents, up 1 fall at their us sources. Apart from the oil markets, we are seeing movement in the Foreign Exchange market, the us dollar on the defensive after some Policy Expectations were dumbed down. Edging up to a six month high while the yen is moving sideways. Holding of raising Interest Rates until the recent economic slowdown is proven to be shot term. In other news the white house has denied accusations that the president s Budget Proposal contains an egregious maths error. Former us treasury secretary Larry Summers pointed out the Spending Plan Double counts 2 trillion of extra federal revenue which is earmarked both to cut taxes and to reduce the budge deficit. But white house budget director Mick Mulvaney told reporters we stand by the numbers. The budget unveiled on tuesday proposes deep cuts to welfare programmes. Sports car maker aston martin has posted a First Quarter profit for the first time in a decade. Revenues in the first three months of the year more than doubled, following strong sales of its new db11 model launched late last year. Aston martin was sold by ford in 2007 to italian and kuwaiti investment firms. The company has gone bankrupt seven times in its history. Its reported to be considering a Stock Market Flotation in london next year in india remember how its economy was plunged into chaos last november when the government scrapped the two most popular banknotes the 500 and 1000 rupee notes. The controversial idea was to break the black economy by forcing people to exchange their stashes of notes for new ones at banks and bringing them into the tax system. Well according to Finance Minister arunjaitley, despite heavy criticism at the time the move has been a success. As he explained to the bbcs lerato mbele. I think it is successful from three important ways one, there is a Huge Movement towards digitisation of the economy. Something which marginally existed in the past. Two, the number of people now filing tax returns has radically gone up so the anonymity which was attached to Catch Karen C is over. It has been identified who owns the currency. Cash economy. You will be releasing yourgdp cash economy. You will be releasing your gdp figures next week. Will you 110w your gdp figures next week. Will you now calibrate everything and get a sense of how Diverse Economic participation is, do you think it will reflect the figures . When we took the extraordinary step of the monetisation we knew that would be a squeeze as far monetisation we knew that would be a squeeze as far as currency monetisation we knew that would be a squeeze as far as currency is concerned. But we were sure that the impact is only marginal. Our critics felt there would be a radical decline as far as the gdp was concerned and that it was too risky. Hopefully, that she continued to roll about 7 . I will see it in a moment for the news review. Two teenage victims of mondays bombing had travelled to the pop concert from the island of barra, in the outer hebrides. Laura macintyre is in hospital. Her friend Eilidh Macleod is still missing. Our scotland correspondent lorna gordon reports. On the outer most edge of the country an Island Community, touched by terror in a city far away. A dark cloud has come down upon the island, a real dark cloud. People are. Theyre a bit in a daze. Were all in a daze. We dont know what to say, what to do. Two of barras own were at the concert in manchester, laura mcintyre, whos 15, seen here on the left, is in a serious condition in hospital. Her friend, 14 year old Eilidh Macleod, is still unaccounted for. Two wonderful, lovely children who have contributed through the years, through their growing up, to the community enormously. The families are distraught with worry and concern. Theyre concerned for each other, theyre concerned for their children. They support each other and just wait and hope and pray. At the islands school, support is being offered to the teenagers friends and fellow pupils. Our school and Island Community are in shock, feeling numb and struggling to come to terms with it. Our thoughts and prayers are with eilidh and laura, their family and friends as they struggle to cope. Barra is small place, it is a place where people know each other well and they are suffering together here, the pain is felt by all. They are pulling together here in this tight knit Island Community, hurting, but helping each other through this difficult time. Laura gordon, bbc news, barra, in the outer hebrides. This is bbc news. The latest headlines more raids and arrests in the uk as Police Confirm their belief a network of accomplices helped the manchester bomber. Counter terrorism officials have strongly criticised the leaking of pictures from the scene of the bombing to Media Organisations in the united states. The Manchester Attack leads our news review again. The telegraph is looking at the Revelation Suicide Bomber Salman Abedi had been repeatedly reported to authorities over his extremist views. It also reports on a potential diplomatic row between the us and britain over leaked photos from the crime scene. In the financial times, Climate Change and how leaders in europe will lobby donald trump to try and get the us to stick with the landmark paris agreement. Mr trump has previously said hed cancel the deal. The Philippine Daily Inquirer shows families fleeing the city of marawi, after terrorists and Government Forces clashed. President Rodrigo Duterte says martial law could be imposed across the whole country, while the army fights islamist militants. Thousands risk their lives in unsafe vessels to cross the mediterranean sea, seeking a better life in europe. Well, the New York Times features a story about how Money Matters with some migrants paying a high price to travel in style
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