Transcripts For BBCNEWS World Business Report 20170424

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the final candidates for the french presidency have been chosen but what economic challenges will the winnerface? we talk you through what's at stake. and 10,000 times stronger than the real thing — we take a look at an artificial sun in germany and what it means for energy supply. welcome to world business report. i'm sally bundock. also in the programme, the euro has spiked in value following the outcome of sundays vote in france. rico will have the latest in a moment. but first, as you've been hearing, the french have voted on who will go though to the final run—off for the presidency on may 7th. as widely expected, centrist emmanuel macron and far—right marine le pen are through. it's been the most unpredictable presidential election in france's history but there are some constants — namely, the economic problems and challenges that remain whoever walks into the elysee palace. a key issue is unemployment, currently at 10% in france. almost three million people are out of work. not as bad as some eurozone neighbours, but above average for the region and far worse than, for example, germany, where it is below 4% and the uk it's 4.7%. deep—rooted structural problems make its labour market inflexible. one example, companies find it it harder and less attractive to hire new staff. firing them is tricky, too, due to complex dismissal procedures. then there's the infamous working week. while long—hours are not banned, anything over 35—hours triggers overtime payments. french government debt is close to 100% of gdp. the international monetary fund has warned if economic growth weakens significantly and the state get less tax revenues, then its debt burden could rise further. and the vast public sector in france is a huge strain on state finances — the nation has one of the highest public spending ratios among developed economies at more than half of total national output. joining me now from paris is laurent clavel, head of macroeconomic research at axa investment managers. good morning, thank you for being with us. good morning. first of all, give us your reaction to this outcome on sunday. the euro spiking toa5— outcome on sunday. the euro spiking to a 5— month high. why? why are they ploughing into the euro, do you think? well, as you said earlier, it was very difficult to predict this election and we have developed our own model to correct and aggregate poles and we had a roughly 20 cents chance to have a market unfriendly outcome which would have dampened the euro and now, the result from yesterday is in the direction that this probability is revised down quite significantly and therefore it is quite naturalfor us quite significantly and therefore it is quite natural for us that we would see the euro appreciate a little, only a little, because the risk scenario was less likely than oui’ risk scenario was less likely than our baseline which was what we see today. and what do you think will happen next in terms of who will come out winner in a couple of weeks time? those that lost out have rallied behind emmanuel macron, will he get the job? yeah, that's definitely the baseline scenario. a 20% probability of a risk to have a market on family out, and the french election, we have come down somehow, somewhat, the risk is not completely gone, obviously, and turnout will be key on a turnout was very strong yesterday, almost 80% which is in line with the average we have seen in the past a0 years in presidential elections in the run—off and now that there was a large turnout, it's not obvious that you will get the same in the run—off at a low turnout would favour marine le pen. the polls we have had for the run—off in the case of macron— the pen, we are giving a clear victory to macron, are giving a clear victory to macron, a re close giving a clear victory to macron, are close to 30 point lead. giving a clear victory to macron, are close to 30 point leadm giving a clear victory to macron, are close to 30 point lead. if he doesn't get thejob, are close to 30 point lead. if he doesn't get the job, what will it mean for the french economy?” doesn't get the job, what will it mean for the french economy? i would say for the markets, the reform and who is the final president won't matter as much as the fact that we have two candidates that a credible and have a clearly market unfriendly agenda were questioning the unity of the eurozone. so now that it is almost out, on may seven and our baseline will be completely out, you get a limited relief rally. for the french economy it is a different question. here, the real trigger will be the general elections. this is completely new candidate with a new party behind him. we are talking about en marche! and it is fairly unlikely that you would get an outright majority in parliament. so we are heading for something quite original in the history of the republic of france which is we may get to a coalition. we have to leave it there. thank you for your analysis this morning. let's talk more about the market reaction. the value of the euro jumped to a five—month high, after the first round of voting in the french presidential election on sunday. let's see how it's fared in asian trading — rico hizon is in our asia business hub in singapore. lovely to see you rico. tell us about what is happening in the markets. if you take a look at the euro trading in asia there has been a lot of movement, sally, over the past few hours. investors are breathing a sigh of relief, the market favourite candidate won through to the first round of the french election. the risk of a brexit— like shock and sparking a mass unwinding of safe haven trades. the euro earlier in asian trade, trading as high as 1.0, up by about 296, trading as high as 1.0, up by about 2%, but a lot of volatility in midday trading with the euro now dipping to about1.08 midday trading with the euro now dipping to about 1.08 aa to the us dollar against the japanese currency, the euro hit 120.91 yen in early asian trade and now on — 19. 0ver early asian trade and now on — 19. over all traders expect investors to be jittery yet over all traders expect investors to bejittery yet again, over all traders expect investors to be jittery yet again, closer to the second round of voting on may seven. some say that if le pen wins the presidential election, the euro could take a huge fall and potentially hit parity with the us dollar. 0ther potentially hit parity with the us dollar. other currency analyst say le pen is one big hurdle for the euro, there are more election is coming this year in germany and italy and certainly it could lead to more euro. thank you, rico. we will see you more very more euro. thank you, rico. we will see you more very soon. germany has one of the highest solar power capacities in the world, but sunshine is far from guaranteed. that's why scientists at the german aerospace centre in julich have built a unique facility — with an artificial sun with a glare that's 10,000 times the intensity of natural sunlight on earth. all to create technologies that will make solar an ever more efficient energy source. joe miller reports. a cloudy day in rural germany, 0k for the coal mines in wind —— and wind turbines but less so for the solar tower which is why scientists at the german aerospace centre have taken the research indoors. this facility gives us consistent artificial light which is very useful, especially here in west germany, the weather is not perfect and we have very rare sunlight and so we and we have very rare sunlight and so we have a facility which gives unlimited light. this is the world's largest artificial sun are composed of 1a9 projection lights. together, they commit a bean which is 1000 times the strength of a regular household bulb and 10,000 times the strength of the sun's race here on earth. and scientists here can use it to test the solar power instruments of the future. this is one of ourfirst instruments of the future. this is one of our first experiments, and a typical one. it is a hydrogen react and this reactor, we want to develop and this reactor, we want to develop a process on splitting water from solar energy to store this energy and to make it available in fuels. when we focus on it, we think we can reach temperatures of around 3000dc so reach temperatures of around 3000dc so this is more than a combustion processes ca n so this is more than a combustion processes can generate. the hope is that this facility can improve the efficiency of solar energy reactors. but with the oil price is still relatively low, commercial interest in its research may take some time. joe miller, bbc news, munich. in other news: more reaction on france injust a moment. today was supposed to be the deadline for the government to publish a strategy to tackle the country's air pollution. however ministers are arguing that they can't publish it because of rules banning major policy announcements in the run—up to an election. campaigners are accusing them of dodging the issue. 0ur environment analyst roger harrabin reports. britain's filthy air was supposed to be cleaned up by 2010 but ministers found it hard for the policy has crept along, and shall ministers had a legal duty to protect people from pollution. today, the 2ath of april was the date stipulated by the judge for the was the date stipulated by the judge forthe air was the date stipulated by the judge for the air pollution policy to be published. but that was until this... i havejust chaired a meeting of the cabinet were we agreed that the government should call a general election. theresa may's election announcement, ministers argued, made it impossible to publish the document now. the politically sensitive, in breach of election rules. this is the real reason for the big delay, say green campaigners, dirty diesel cars. and government dithering over a pollution tax or a costly scrappage scheme. the government has had five months to come up with the new plan and waited for the last minute to try to get out of it. it unacceptable try to get out of it. it u na cce pta ble to leave try to get out of it. it unacceptable to leave it until the last minute. we need a plan introduced now. people's health is suffering across the country from the air they are breathing. it's not right, it is a public health issue, not a political one. if the judges persuaded to delay, any political decisions will come after the election. coming up at 6am on breakfast — louise minchin and dan walker will have more of the day's news, business and sport including the hunt for the burglars who ran over and killed a former navy officer as they stole his car from the chorlton area area of manchester. the top stories this hour: the people of france have chosen the two candidates who will go through to the final round of the presidential election in two weeks' time. they're the centrist, emmanuel macron, and the nationalist right—winger, marine le pen. speaking after projections confirmed the first round results, emmanuel macron said his job would be to become president for the whole country. he called for everyone to rally against the nationalists in the second round. in her speech after the result was announced, ms le pen said that it was time to "liberate the french people". the losing centre—right and socialist left candidates said they were now switching their allegiance to mr macron. hello their allegiance to mr macron. and welcome backt karin hello and welcome back to paris. i'm karin giannone with more reaction to that first round presidential election result. you may remember the pollsters who are making predictions about the uk's referendum and remaining in the eu, and also the us presidential race had quite a rap because of failing to protect those events with the lack of donald trump and brexit, generally. but let's talk to a french pollster. ijoined by jean—phillipe. but you got this right before the commended? yes. we saw that emmanuel macron and marine le pen were about 30%. and francois fillon and jean—luc melenchon at around 19%. so it was a relief to see our polls are right. what surprised you? see our polls are right. what surprised you ? was see our polls are right. what surprised you? was a sunny about the turnout that you are perhaps not expecting? yes. this was a surprise because we expected it to be lower. because of the campaign that was imbued with scandals. that turns collectors away from the election. but the electors did

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