and the global news podcast. it is two years since russia began its full—scale invasion of ukraine, triggering the bloodiest conflict in europe since the second world war. but after 730 days of fighting, who has the upper hand? what is life like in ukraine and russia today, and when will the killing end? the global news podcast and ukrainecast have come together to answer your questions. hello, i'm oliver conway from the global news podcast. i'm vitaly shevchenko, the co—presenter from ukrainecast in the ukrainecast studio. i'm olga robinson from bbc verify, also in the ukrainecast studio. i'm lyse doucet, the bbc's chief international- correspondent and i'm back. in the ukrainian capital, kyiv. and i'm steven rosenberg, the bbc's russia editor and i'm in moscow. thank you all forjoining us. we have had lots of questions from listeners to the global podcast, and ukrainecast. thank you all. we will try to answer as many as we can. hello, i'm derek from london in the uk. is there really a stalemate in ukraine at the moment? this is angela from - auckland in new zealand. could you talk please - about the changes, zelensky's strategy with the departure of zaluzhnyi, the general. in charge of the army? well, lyse, first of all, is there a stalemate on the battlefield or has the tide turned in favour of russia? i will answer the question about the stalemate, and i will partially be answering the second question. it was general zaluzhnyi the last commander in chief who used the words stalemate in an interview and it is said to have angered president zelensky. he felt it was too negative description of the situation along the front line. president zelensky himself recently went to visit his troops in the east. he described the situation as extremely difficult. he is saying the russian forces are pressing ahead in at least five directions. and he believes russia is trying to take advantage of delays in the delivery of critical military support, in particular, some $60 billion in military aid that has been held up by political infighting in the us congress. i think ukrainians are waiting to see whether the change in the commander—in—chief will make a difference. president zelensky himself has spoken of a reboot in the military strategy two years on. steve, what is the view in moscow? when you listen to the political - chat shows on state television, when you listen to what russian officials are saying, - to what president putin is saying, you certainly get the feeling the - russians believe the situation is changing, the tide is turning in moscow's favour. - the thing is, the russians| are not just watching what is happening on battlefield, - on the front line, they are watching what is happening in the corridors of power, in europe and in- particular in america. the fact this future us military assistance to ukraine is - stuck in the congress, that is giving, i think, | the kremlin added confidence this could be a turning point. - so, very often when vladimir putin appears on tv now, he's _ smiling, he is talking about russia i gaining the initiative and i think. the russians are looking ahead with confidence. i olga, what can you tell us about how much territory has actually changed hands over this past year? it has been really slow, the progress in fighting on the ground across the front line. we know from the institute for the study of war that according to their estimates, in total, 130,000 square kilometres of territory changed hands in the first year of the war, that is 2022. that number went down to 900 square kilometres. it is almost like a stalemate, it felt like it for a very long time. but i think now, things, in the past few weeks, things have really been changing a little bit and we can see from the developments, the fall of the town of avdiivka to the russians, it feels like if it were scales and we were looking at scales, the scales looks like it is tipping slightly right now towards russia. but the question is, whether there is a long—term change or whether it is temporary. if we look at who zaluzhnyi was, in the eyes of the public in ukraine, the military, he was almost universally admired, respected, many members of ukraine military saw him as a kindly, caring father and they felt they were in the same boat as him. the new commander in chief, who is seen very differently, when he was appointed, they were shrieks of dismay and outrage and people remembered that even though he has bags of experience, he has been fighting since the very beginning of russia's invasion ten years ago, he showed himself as a callous commander who doesn't often care about the number of ukrainian soldiers who die. that is at least how he is perceived in ukraine. next, some of the listeners to the global podcast and ukrainecast have been asking about the impact of the war on civilian populations. my name is dale and i live in scotland. my question is, what psychological effect has the frequency of air raids had on ukrainian people? my name is frederik and i am from paris. my question is about the efficiency of the economic sanctions on russia and the real effects. steve, you can look at that in just a moment. first, lyse, what does it feel like in ukraine today? i have to say i remember the first weeks of the war, whenever the air raid sirens sounded, everyone immediately went to their bomb shelters, either underground parks, metro stations, basements. whatever they had, everyone knew they had somewhere to hide. but as the months went on and people realised that every time the air raid sirens sounded, it didn't necessarily mean there was going to be missile slamming into a building or a street nearby. people became much more relaxed about it, they look up from what they are doing and they get on with it. every so often, they are reminded that you have to take them seriously. there were blistering attacks here in kyiv in january, reminding people, even though kyiv at times can feel far away from the worst impact of this war, it still is in moscow's sites. if you are in an area which comes in the more regular attacks, such as the dnipro, it is coming in the greater attacks, kherson, we have heard terrible reports today of quite a few attacks today. it depends where you are and what you have lived through. steve. russia's the most sanctioned country in the world now. i remember back two years ago, some economists in the west were predicting that the tsunami of sanctions that western governments were imposing on russia would mean that, a few months later, the russian economy would collapse. that hasn't happened. recently, the imf revised upwards its growth forecast for russia this year. if you go to the russian supermarkets, for instance, still plenty of food, plenty of goods on the shelf, not the selection there was two years ago but still plenty there. 0k, a lot of the western cars, western washing machines, perhaps no longer available. a lot of chinese goods instead. still sanctions haven't hit the ordinary population in russia to the extent, i think, western governments were assuming. russia has been able to redirect a lot of its oil and gas, i think, to china, india. having said that, there could problems ahead because it is the military, the military industrial complex which has been keeping the economy running here. the russians are spending a lot of money on the military, how long can that last? i hear similar stories from people that i l know back in russia, | around moscow area. they say, yes, there are no empty shelves in shops. . pretty much everything is available. but if you look closer, prices have gone up. i also, some of the people say they have noticed you - can now get for the same price you use to get basic things, i he would get less product. the war is having a bigger impact on both countries on those actually doing the fighting. on both countries on we've got two listeners asking about conscription. my name is arthur and i'm currently based in london. many have speculated after the russian elections in march this year there will no longer be any impediment holding putin back from another round of call—up. if true, what potential effects could that have on the battlefield and domestic politics in russia? this isjeff from germany here. i'd like to hear about the perspective of ukrainian soldiers and their relatives, particular those of conscripts. are men fleeing occupied territory allowed to leave the country yet? to what extent are civilians being forced into conscription, how are conscientious objectors treated? steve, why don't you start by telling us about a possible other round of call ups in russia? well, it's possible, but if you go back to the first wave of mobilization in russia, which was, what, september 2022, when the kremlin announced what it called partial mobilization, hundreds of thousands of russian men being called up that that caused a lot of alarm in russian society. all kinds of surveys showed that. the kremlin knows that. so what's been happening in recent months the kremlin has been relying on contract soldiers, throwing lots of money at this to encourage people, to encourage russian men to sign up voluntarily and head off to the front line. and that's been working so far. the authorities say they've managed to hire hundreds of thousands of russian men to do that who are attracted by the large sums of money. the authorities know that if they decide on another large wave of mobilization, that, again, is going to cause a lot of alarm in russian society and the last thing the authorities here want to do is to destabilize the social situation within the country. and, lyse, where you are isn't there a a bill going through parliament to try to boost conscription? yes, a figure whopping figure of half a million more soldiers need to be called up to fight in this war. the last commander in chief was the first one to use that figure. president zelensky objected, saying, we can find other ways, better rotation of forces. we don't think this is possible. and so there's a heated debate about that mobilization bill now going through parliament. we met the national security adviser, _ and he said, yes, it is a figure of half a million, but we won't be asking, in his words, for today or tomorrow. it'll be phased over time. but we hear reports of people being quite pushed to that. the conscription is getting a bit rough. i met someone this morning at a coffee shop in kyiv and he said he had been stopped on the street by officials and asked why he wasn't at the front line. you hear these stories about people being questioned about about their whereabouts. have they served yet? what are they doing? so this is very much hanging in the air. the bill hasn't gone through yet and it's still being debated, but certainly all the reports are that the troops are exhausted. there does need to be a rotation. there needs to be more troops. president zelensky himself used the figure of a 5 to 1 ratio of russian forces and weaponry versus what the ukrainians have on the front lines right now. the fact is that huge numbers of motivated and capable ukrainian fighters, they are tired. many of them have been wounded, many of them are dead. and replacing them has been a huge struggle. i keep hearing stories of men who are still in ukraine and still not in the army, unwilling to pop out to the shops because they are afraid of being conscripted. so they're stuck indoors all the time. you mentioned the western military support. many listeners have been asking about that, including robyn in new zealand and laurie in london, particularly when will the fighterjets arrive? and here's michael from ireland. when will the us aid, if at all, be approved and sent to ukraine? and when will the eu aid that has been approved arrive there? what kind of impact can they have on the war, please? well, there was a report in the media here that the first f—i6 fighter pilot is being trained now, will be ready by the summer. and there have been promises of f—i6s that will be delivered sometime this year. and president zelensky has been talking about the arrival of fighterjets that he has been asking for for a very long time and with some bitterness, saying that they yet as with all the heavy armour, the ammunition, everything, all the support that they're very grateful for, it never arrives in a timely fashion. and so to with the f—16 fighterjets that they hope will help in trying to turn the tide of war in ukraine's favor. but will they be the silver bullet that ukraine needs? possibly, possibly not. i think many people in ukraine and their backers abroad would agree that it's a comprehensive approach involving military support, diplomatic support, financial support that would ultimately help ukraine defeat russia. so any delays in providing any of that well, they, in fact, mean that ukraine is being forced to fight with its hands being tied behind its back, because there are numerous stories of ukrainians having to withdraw, to surrender even, once they run out of ammunition. it's that bad. i remember talking to a journalist who spent four months in avdiivka over the period of autumn. and he was saying that in december, he was saying, we are lacking ammunition, we're lacking men, we're lacking everything. it's just the only thing that we're winning with is motivation. and that was in december. and then in february, we saw what we saw, avdiivka fell. well, bearing all that in mind, where does it all go from here? not least with a possible return of donald trump to the white house, along with his promise to end the war in one day? olivier from paris. is there any chance that - the international criminal court in the hague will one dayjudgel vladimir putin for the war crimes he has committed? well, steve, that last one's for you, and i wonder if you can also tackle an email we had from philip, who says, this is putin's war. so how much would change if he, putin, were removed from the picture by natural or manmade causes? oh, that's an interesting question, isn't it? when this all began two years ago, i was calling it putin's war because there was no doubt that this was his decision that he took to launch what he calls still the special military operation, the full scale invasion of ukraine. and it's clear that a lot of senior russian officials had no idea that this was coming. but two years on, i wouldn't call it putin's war, because there are lots of people, lots of officials, propagandists on on state television who are now involved in this. and, of course, a lot of soldiers fighting, russian soldiers fighting in ukraine. if you remove putin from the equation and someone else comes, what happens? it depends who that person is. looking back in russian history, so much depends on the person at the top. it's true. and we don't know who would succeed vladimir putin. so that's a difficult one to answer. but certainly there are a lot of other people apart from the russian president who are now on board with this. having said that, from my conversations with russians over the last few months, ordinary people here, there is a fatigue. a lot of people say to me, you know, we want peace. we want the war to be over. and people do use the word war. they called it a war. when you speak to ordinary russians, they don't use the phrase special military operation. people understand what's happening and would like peace. some people say they want peace on russia's terms. some people say they want negotiations. but people realize that this is affecting a lot of people here in russia, too, and can't wait for it to end. and the likelihood of mr putin ending up in the international criminal court, i guess unlikely. i would think so. and certainly russian officials believe that's unlikely and speak mockingly about the arrest warrant that was issued by the international criminal court. so at the moment, it looks like russia is determined to carry on to the bitter end. some listeners are wondering what that might mean for ukraine. this is karen from ontario, canada. just wondering what the global impact of a ukrainian defeat might look like. my name is reggie. i live in a small town- in the southern united states. |with the war in ukraine having nowj dragged on for some time, what do everyday ukrainians see as the path forward? . what does success look like in their eyes? - this is dave and i'm in queensland, in australia. my question is about the political future within ukraine. it's difficult to stage elections when the country is under martial law and if russia is occupying sections of ukraine, it's very difficult to involve people living in those occupied territories in an election. if this remains a frozen conflict, where does ukraine go from here? so lots of questions there, lyse. let me start by saying i remember vividly last year at this time, president zelensky telling the people of ukraine, telling the world that ukraine will win this war and it will win this war this year. and i rememberthinking, wow, that's dangerous to say that because it doesn't look like a year ago, it didn't look like ukraine would would win would prevail in a year. and at the same time in moscow, president putin was saying exactly the same thing, that his forces would win and win this year. and what i'm hearing from ukrainians, at least here in kiev, they're saying, you know, we really thought that this war was not going to last a long time. we were motivated. and to a person, they'd say, we can win and we will win. but now you hear the realization that this war could go on for a very long time, even people admitting not in public, but quietly in private, saying, you know, there's even a possibility we could lose. but this is something they don't want to say, because for ukraine, this is notjust a war. this is an existential battle. remember, this war began with president putin reaching back into his version of history and saying ukraine is a mistake of a country. ukraine doesn't have a right to exist. it is part of russia. so that is why, partly why they have stood up and fought for so long. but also you have to remember that it's different for those who are here in kyiv. war doesn't leave any part of ukraine untouched. but there is a difference between the living in a war in kyiv and being at the front lines in the east and in the south. and of course, he's that includes territory now occupied by the russians. but there are whole towns which are have been erased that have been completely reduced. they don't exist anymore, and that people those people are living in those regions. their version of this war is is much more dark and much more all all encompassing. so olga, vitali and steve. will the fighting still be going on this time next year? i mean, i really doubt it will end any time soon. i mean, not at this point. it doesn't look like it. russia is still fighting, . still determined to fight. its economy is still buoyant. i've seen projections. saying that it will grow. but let's think for the moment - what ukraine's defeat would mean for the world, because there are so many people saying, i "oh, it's only ukraine if it's gone, you know, life goes on anyway. . but let's have a think- about an emboldened kremlin, which we which will be able to pull the strings more effectively. - we've seen it try and meddle i in different democracies before. if it defeats ukraine, it - will definitely try to do it again, using energy to try and achievej an advantage across the globe. and that's apart from the moral . issue of invading another country, killing so many people, and applying the principle of might as right, - we've got nuclear weapons, - what are you going to do about it? and steve, in your answer, we've also had an email from new york asking whether all this nato's support for ukraine is making russia feel even more threatened? well, in a way, nato's support plays into the kremlin�*s hands. it bolsters the kremlin�*s narrative, which it presents to to the russian people. that narrative being that, look, we told you russia is threatened by nato. nato wants to hurt russia wants to destroy russia. that's the message you get when you switch on russian state television. so whenever nato gives support to ukraine, the russians come out with that narrative. as regards how long the fighting is going to go on for, i think vladimir putin believes he has the staying power, that russia has, the staying power that he thinks ukraine lacks and he thinks the west lacks. and there are two elections that the kremlin has its eye on this year. there's what's going to happen in russia next month. i mean, that's a given, isn't it, that vladimir putin is going to win? the kremlin controls that 100%. but then the russians are looking at the american election, too. and if donald trump comes into the white house, comes back to the white house, i think that moscow believes that that will bring a sea change regarding the war in ukraine, even though you hear vladimir putin now bizarrely coming out publicly saying, "i supportjoe biden". in reality, i think there's little doubt that the kremlin would prefer it if donald trump came back into the white house and that would have an effect. i think the kremlin is hoping on what happens with the war in ukraine. kyse, briefly, whatever happens, the ukrainians won't give up. they say we can't give up. if we give up, we give up, we give up our lives. we give up our identity, we give up our our country. that is how high the stakes are. and to pick up on what vitali said, they keep insisting and certainly president zelensky insists at every turn it's notjust ukraine's war. they are fighting a war on behalf of europe, on behalf of those countries, neighboring russia, on behalf of all those countries who say that they're fighting for democracy, against authoritarian rule. and there is a very real risk, it is believed, in the capitals of nato countries that if president putin, if russia prevails in this war, it will only be a matter of time before russian troops cross the border into another country. president putin denies that. but who can forget january of 2022, where president putin, his foreign minister, sergey lavrov, kept repeating, we have no intention of invading ukraine. thank you all. apologies, we didn't have time to answer all your questions. but with the war set to continue, no doubt these are topics we will cover in future editions of ukraine cast and the global news podcast. but for now, goodbye. ukrainecats from bbc news. hello. it has been acquired to start our weekend that it has been a cold one. temperatures are low enough through the night for some frost as you can see from this weather watcher picture. in fact, temperatures fell below freezing in many places and we haven't seen temperatures below freezing in central and southern england so far this month. lowest values are minus six. there have been showers and it is from this little by the front here that most of the frequent showers are sitting. they will continue across south—west england, down to the channel islands. a few isolated ones into northern ireland and the north and west coast of scotland as well. for most of us, after the mist and fog lifts away, a lot of sunshine around. cloud will tend to bubble up into the afternoon but we keep some sunny spells. the showers will be isolated. nevertheless, some of us will get to see a dry story. 6—10 the overall height, that is where temptresses should be for this time of year. this evening and overnight, the winds will remain light, skies were clear and some of the showers will fade away. for some, we will see the frost returning but they will be more rain and clouds gathering into the south—west. temperatures will hold up above freezing, cold, frosty for the north. we need to look at this area of low pressure because it will bring rain into the south—west. still some uncertainty as to how far north that rain will come, the current thinking is it of pushing across south wales in south—west england and drift along the channel coast. cloud on sunday but on the whole, dry and settled with a few scattered showers into north—west scotland and highs of around 6—10. that frontal system may bring in a little bit of early morning rain on member across the kent coast, a north—easterly wind cluster to pick up, a brisk wind from a cool source and that'll make it feel chilly on those exposed east coast. cloud around on monday but on the whole largely fine and dry, temperatures fairly similar. as you move out of monday into tuesday and wednesday, we keep this quiet theme but with each day through the week, that is a risk of its turning milder but more unsettled. live from london. this is bbc news. on the second anniversary of russia's full—scale invasion of ukraine, president zelensky insists his country will win the war — but urgently needs more weapons. live in kyiv. it is the day of remembrance but also resolve, ukrainians are saying they must win this war but can only do it with the help of their allies. the uk labour party calls for a conservative mp to be suspended over what it described as "islamophobic" comments. hello, i'm lauren taylor. a defiant president zelensky has insisted ukraine will win — as the country marks the second anniversary of russia's full—scale invasion. let's go straight to kyiv and our chief international correspondent, lees said. ., chief international correspondent, leessaid. ., , ., lees said. come february 24, two ears lees said. come february 24, two years ago. — lees said. come february 24, two years ago. is _ lees said. come february 24, two years ago. is a —