Transcripts For BBCNEWS This Week By-Election Special 20170224

Against so called Islamic State in iraqs second city, mosul. Theyve taken the citys airport, a key Staging Point in the battle to drive militants from the western half of the city. Our correspondent Quentin Sommerville was there as Iraqi Government troops fought their way in. Before the attack came the rockets and artillery. Its day five of the offensive to retake western mosul. Slowly, the forces make their way past a suspected is car bomb, torched en route. These armoured columns are now moving forward to mosul airport. The attack for the airport is under way. All night long, weve heard Coalition Aircraft and iraqi artillery slam this area just to the north of us. The onslaught had cleared this village of is fighters and civilians. Its eerily quiet as the men proceed on foot. A local man tells the Special Forces there were up to 100 is here yesterday. Theyve hidden bombs all over. So the men took to higher ground. And we followed at a safe distance. As the day went on, there was no let up. Its from this factory that is defended the airport. Their flag flew here yesterday, but no longer. In less than four hours, iraqi forces had breached the airport perimeter, but is fought back. First, a huge Roadside Bomb which killed an iraqi officer. Despite the air strikes, is fighters were still putting up resistance. From the cover of an armoured vehicle, we were able to see the battle ahead. It was a short battle, but there were no casualties from the front. The more they advance, the more civilians they meet, and theyre in a wretched state. These people had hung on during years of Islamic State group rule but, in the midst of this final battle, they were overwhelmed. This man says, theyre dead in this house, all dead. My brother has already gone to the camp. Hes heartbroken. Six of his family were killed in an air strike. This is the last open ground before west mosul. The desert and farmland here made for swift progress. Iraqi forces are now less than a mile away from the city. Theyre also in range of mortars from is. But its the Islamic State thats under threat. Mosul airport may be in ruins. But, more importantly, its back in government hands. Over there, its the iraqi flag thats flying on the airfield again. This is a landmark moment. Iraqi forces now have the Islamic State group on the run. Is might transform itself into something else, but right now, here in iraq, were witnessing the final days of the caliphate. Quentin sommerville, bbc news, mosul airport. Storm doris has brought chaos across the uk. Thereve been winds of up to 95mph and a woman was killed by Flying Debris in wolverhampton. Trees have been brought down taking power lines with them. Nearly all Rail Operators have been reporting delays leaving many passengers stranded. Planes have been grounded and bridges and roads have been closed. Tens of thousands of homes have been left without power. Danny savage has more. It was late morning when Emergency Services were called to wolverhampton city centre. A woman had been hit by Flying Debris. Her Head Injuries were so serious, she died at the scene. Hours later, a heavy panel was taken away as an investigation started. Storm doris swept into scotland this morning, leaving drivers struggling in snowy conditions, like here, on the a71. The high winds didnt stay anywhere for long but they did enough damage on the way through, like on this Moorland Road in staffordshire. Further south, this railway line near st albans was closed by a single voluntary. Such scenes were repeated across the rail network. The result was a long, frustrating day for many travellers. This was euston, where west Coast Main Line Services ground to a halt. Trains been cancelled so im unsure how to get home. I might have to stay an extra night, which would be rather an incovenience. We didnt know till we got here that all Virgin Trains were cancelled, so we are stranded here and we cant get back to manchester, back home. 145 miles north in retford tonight, they were very laid back 145 miles north in retford tonight, they were very late back but they knew it could have been worse. Are you thankful to have got back tonight . Absolutely. cause theres a lot of people in london . Yes, it was awful at kings cross, hundreds of people. I spoke to a lady and she got on the 1 10pm train, sat there for an hour and had to get off the train, and she was still in kings cross at 5pm when i was there. And look at the lucky escape a Driving Instructor in spalding had this morning. Spare a thought for the bumpy landings endured by air passengers. This was a Service Coming into manchester. Storm doris will be remembered for its southerly track. Its now gone, but certainly not forgotten. Danny savage, bbc news. Its taken four years to get through parliament, but now the go ahead has finally be given for work to begin on the hs2 high speed rail link between london and birmingham. Critics say it is a waste of money and will damage the environment. But supporters say it will boost the economy and the number of people be able to travel by rail. Im taking a journey on the first stage of the route from london to birmingham to see what impact it could have. The biggest challenge is tackling overcrowding. 0ur could have. The biggest challenge is tackling overcrowding. Our current tracks and stations cant handle many more passengers. As well as running more frequently the trains will be faster too, good news for passengers. Sometimes you dont get enough carriages, which is a problem, its really crowded and lots of people stand up. Problem, its really crowded and lots of people stand uplj problem, its really crowded and lots of people stand up. I regard being on train as work time so if you dont get sat down you feel frustrated. Its notjust commuters who stand to gain from the new railway. Were going to average around 10,000 jobs over the course of the first phase of Construction Peak Peaking at 5000 per month, when we go into operation we will have 10,000 Ofjobs Maintaining and running the railway. There could be an even greater economic benefit. Take this journey, its about an hour and 20 minutes. With 50 minutes into the journey but if this was an hs2 train we would already be in birmingham and that means spending less time travelling and more time working. 0ne estimate suggests that could add about £15 billion to the economy. But at what cost . The current pricetag is close to £60 billion but many say it could be much higher. 60 woodlands would have to be bulldozed. 350 homes will have to be bulldozed. 350 homes will have to be bulldozed. 350 homes will have to be demolished and thousands of businesses will be affected. Like this farm in buckinghamshire. The land will be split into back when work begins. Its going to Com Pletely Work begins. Its going to completely alter the way i farmed. Ill lose half the grazing my cows can use. Im not seriously convinced hs2 is of any necessity to this country at all. The first section to the West Midlands is due to open by 2026 and an extension to leeds and manchester will open by 2032. Hs2 should make journeys faster and manchester will open by 2032. Hs2 should makejourneys faster and more co mforta ble. Should makejourneys faster and more comfortable. But keeping the project on time and on track could prove more difficult. Ben thompson, bbc news, in birmingham. The bbc has learned that around 10,000 motorists were still driving last month, despite having too many Penalty Points on their licence. Usually drivers are banned when they go over 12 points. But magistrates are allowed to waive the rule in cases of exceptional hardship. Supporters say it gives drivers another chance, but critics say Bending The Rules puts other people at risk. 0ur correspondent david rhodes has more. From speeding to drink driving, failing to have insurance or causing a collision on the road, Penalty Points are given to motorists when they break the law. 12 active points ona they break the law. 12 active points on a license that usually means a driver will be banned for a minimum of six months. But figures obtained by the bbc show that just under 10,000 drivers are still on the roads despite having 12 or more points. Most are found in england, with the largest number being in greater london, although one driver in West Yorkshire is still on the road despite having more than 60 points on their licence. The law doesnt seem to be working at the moment. Weve got people at the moment. Weve got people at the moment obviously being caught and going through the Justice System that actually the whole point system seems to be making a mockery of that, drivers are getting away with repeatedly breaking the law. Motorists with 12 points can appeal toa motorists with 12 points can appeal to a Magistrates Court such as this one and they can claim a driving ban will bring exceptional hardship on their lives, meaning theyd lose a job or be unable to care for a family member. There is no definition in law, though, as to what exceptional hardship means so one magistrate may decide that if a driving ban would call someone to lose theirjob, that is exceptional hardship. Another magistrate may decide it isnt. Every band is considered on a case by case basis. The government says the vast majority of drivers with 12 points are automatically disqualified and only under exceptional circumstances canjudges decide only under exceptional circumstances can judges decide not to only under exceptional circumstances canjudges decide not to issue only under exceptional circumstances can judges decide not to issue a ban. The fact remains, though, there are drivers who have continually broken the law who are still on our roads. Claudio ranieri has been sacked as Leicester Citys manager. Thats despite guiding the club to what had seemed an impossible dream, premier League Triumph last season, and being voted fifas coach of the year. The clubs owners tonight dismissed him, citing long term interests. Leicesters dismal season has left them teetering above the Relegation Zone. You would think they would give Claudio Ranieri a full season as an act of loyalty given the Fairytale Success he delivered just nine months ago. The fans perhaps are in shock over this, again a sign of the gratitude they had towards Claudio Ranieri but the owners are worried, they are flirting with relegation, they are flirting with relegation, the team is just above the Relegation Zone and that would be financially damaging, theres £9 billion of tv revenue to be carved up billion of tv revenue to be carved up among billion of tv revenue to be carved up among the premier leagues 20 clu bs up among the premier leagues 20 clubs over the course of three seasons and in sporting terms they wa nt to seasons and in sporting terms they want to be fighting amongst the very best. Relegation threatens all of that so theres 13 games left in the season, theyre in terrible form and Claudio Ranieri was described as performing miracles to get Leicester City to that title, they may need another miracle for someone to come in and save their season. Now its time to join andrew neil for a this week special programme covering the results of the by elections in stoke welcome if yourejoining us for what promises to be a political night to remember. Not one, but two parliamentary by elections to savour. The tories and labour are going head to head in copeland, on the edge of the lake district. And ukips leader, paul nuttall, is making a concerted bid to wrest stoke on Trent Central from labour control. Both seats have been labour bankers for years. Well see if that continues tonight. With me for the duration, however long that may be, conservative cabinet minister matt hancock. One of ukips men in the london assembly, david kurten. Representing their lordships house, baroness kath pinnock for the lib dems. And last but not least, the Shadow Cabinets Barry Gardiner. Welcome, all of you. Thank you for being here. Barry gardiner, we have two labour seats up for grabs. It is highly unusual for the opposition to lose seats in by elections to the government. The fact that it might speaks volumes for the state of your party. Look, it would be unprecedented since 1960, and i think we are acutely aware of that, but you are acutely aware also that what we have at the moment is a huge change in the whole of british politics as a result of brexit. And i think its impossible to consider these by elections as being in normal times, in that sense. Why must you knock brexit has changed the face of uk politics in a profound way. Those people who had Traditional Party loyalties, both in matts party and my own, for matt, while most of his colleagues voted to remain, a substantial number voted to leave, yet only 44 of conservative voters voted to remain. The rest voted to leave. In my party, 64 of voters voted to remain, but actually 66 of our Constituency Seats, 64 of our Constituency Seats, 64 of our Constituency Seats, 64 of our Constituency Seats were actually leave seats. But how does this explain how you might lose copeland . Im not saying we are going to lose. Isaid im not saying we are going to lose. I said you might, but how does this explain in opposition in the midterm ofa explain in opposition in the midterm of a government that has its own problems that would lose a seat like copeland . You talk about the midterm ofa copeland . You talk about the midterm of a government. We have a relatively new Prime Minister, albeit she was unelected, and she is still in her Honeymoon Period. You can paint this as a historic occasion, if we were to lose, but my point is that actually there are some exceptional circumstances. Do you buy any of that . Know, frankly. I think that labour are in deep trouble. These are two strongholds for the labour party. They have held them for 50 odd years. They are the sort of seats that they could put people like Tristram Hunt, an obvious southerner, into a North Midlands seat and he won it with ease. So these should be easily won for labour. Lets go up to stoke, where the count is taking place in a sports hall. You can lay out all the ta bles sports hall. You can lay out all the tables in a space like that and do the counting on them. Very efficient. Gerard batten is a member of the European Parliament for ukip and hejoins of the European Parliament for ukip and he joins us of the European Parliament for ukip and hejoins us from of the European Parliament for ukip and he joins us from the count. Can you tell us, how is your party likely to fare tonight . 0r you tell us, how is your party likely to fare tonight . Or this morning . Its a bit too early to say. Its definitely a two horse race between us and labour and what ive been saying for the last couple of weeks is it is either going to be two thousandths and labour or its going to be a close result and it could go either way. 2000 to labour. But the options you gave me, its either a couple of thousand to labour or its either a couple of thousand to labourora its either a couple of thousand to labour or a very close result, that doesnt sound that you are too confident that paul nuttall has pulled this off. Its a very difficult task, of course, to win a seat like this, which has been in labour hands since 1950, i believe. To Wina Labour Hands since 1950, i believe. To win a seat from another party which has that long established a record will always be difficult. Of course, we have seen two things in this election which have been pretty bad. The labour party have had absolutely nothing positive to say about itself but it has attacked ukip on the line that we want to privatise the nhs, which isnt true, has never been true, and we have had that on the doorstep. The other thing has been be sustained Character Assassination via the media against paul nuttall, some elements of the media, which has also played on the doorstep. So the complaints about mr nuttall, is sometime vicarious relationship with the truth, that has cut through on the truth, that has cut through on the doorsteps of stoke . No, it hasnt. Paul has explained this many times in the last couple of weeks. He was at hillsborough, he was 12 yea rs he was at hillsborough, he was 12 years old. His Press Officer Put Something up on the website that he didnt check properly and obviously over egged the pudding a bit. When he realised that had happened, you frankly admitted he had made a mistake and he apologised, but that is the extent of it. The frankly admitted. But it wasntjust hillsborough. Although i think that this matter quite a lot of people. It was also his relationship with tranmere rovers, which wasnt quite what he had claimed it to be, and his so called ph. D. , which was not a ph. D. Itjust created a sense that he had a lot of questions to answer, andi he had a lot of questions to answer, and i would suggest it got in the way of you getting your other m essa g es way of you getting your other messages across, that mr nuttall turned out to not be the candidate that you really needed to win stoke. We have had elements of the media who dont want ukip to win the work these things up to the extent that is far beyond their relevance or truths, and they have managed to get those things on the doorstep, so people like the guardian and channel 4 people like the guardian and channel acan be people like the guardian and channel 4 can be proud of themselves. They have done the damage they have done to ukip, rather than reporting the Election Campaign itself and the issues that matter. Are you telling me that the guardian and channel 4 news are big in the Backstreet Terraces of stoke . It gets into the Mainstream Media and is repeated on radio programmes. You are talking about it tonight. People have been voting on it, so we cant affect the results. People who dont read the guardian can see the Press Reviews on sky, for example. It seems from your demeanour and what you are saying that you are getting your excusesin saying that you are getting your excuses in first, arent you must knock i didnt quite catch that. You are getting your excuses in now. From your demeanour and the way you are going on about the disadvantages mr nuttall faced, many of his own making, that it hasnt gone as well for you as you would have hoped. Making, that it hasnt gone as well for you as you would have hopedlj have for you as you would have hoped. have fought many by Election Campaigns, general Election Campaigns, general Election Campaigns, european Election Campaigns, european Election Campaigns sincei campaigns, european Election Campaigns since i helped set ukip up in1993, and campaigns since i helped set ukip up in 1993, and this has been about the dirtiest campaign ive ever seen. Arent by election is usually pretty dirty . Most by election i have covered have been pretty dirty. That is what they are. Well, maybe you have seen more than i have, andrew. Id probably have. Its about the worst exa m ple id probably have. Its about the worst example ive seen. Ive never experienced anything like this, in a general election or a by election. Those of us who remember the Bermondsey By Election many years ago in london, we are really shocked by nothing these days. Let me ask you before we go, because we are grateful for your time, you before we go, because we are gratefulfor your time, and you before we go, because we are grateful for your time, and i you before we go, because we are gratefulfor your time, and i know its difficult when the result is still on claire. If you cannot win in stoke, which mr nuttall called brexit central, this was one of the brexit central, this was one of the brexit constituencies, if you cant win there, where can you win . With all due respect to stoke on Trent Central, it was number 72 on our target list, so i think we have done well however get on. In all be ukip elections i have taken part in, if we win, its called a flash in the pan, and if we lose, its called the end of ukip. The party has never been more united than it has in this campaign. We have had hundreds of people out. People have been solidly behind paul, working for a win. This has brought the Party Together behind his leadership, so it is positive for us whatever the result. It is too early to call. We could be winning this. We wont know for an hour or two yet. We will be here until we get it. We will see how united ukip remains when we get the result. Thank you forjoining us. We may come back to you as the night goes on. Matt hancock, your party tried very hard in stoke, did it . We campaigned in step. Did you try hard . I think we did. I went to copeland. You didnt go to stoke . What is the name of your candidate in stoke . It is. It is. Ididnt meet him. Its jack lenox. I went and campaigned in copeland. The Prime Minister went to both. We campaigned in both. Clearly, the central point. Of course you campaigned in both, its a by election. My point was, did you try very hard, or in fact did you not really poor the resources into copeland, because that was the one that you hoped to win . There would be nothing stupid ever doing that, can we be honest . No, we campaigned in both. The Prime Minister going to both shows that we had a Serious Campaign in both. If we won either, it would be extraordinary. Well, that may be the case, and we were talking earlier about what a story it would be if labour lost copeland. But lets look at stoke on Trent Central, in the heart of the potteries. This was the result in the general election. The turnout was only 51 , which is pretty low for a general election. Tristram hunt was the Labour Candidate, the sitting mp. He got 39 . As you can see, ukip and the conservatives were sort of nip and tuck. I think ukip was marginally ahead. In our rounding up, they were both on 23 . Then a big drop down to independent, lib dems, and the greens at 4 . When you look at that, it is interesting that, given that you were both, matt hancock, ukip and the conservatives, starting from the same base, if i can put it that way, that you still thought copeland was a better bet. We area thought copeland was a better bet. We are a party in government and you hardly ever get closer when you are in government. No, you tend to lose. You tend to lose your share of the vote, too, never mind seats. Yes, so it would be extraordinary if we won either. The fact that some people we re either. The fact that some people were talking about us having a chance to win either is extraordinary. It isnt only about the state of the labour party, as barry was saying, but its also about the fact that the government, on any of the major big picture issues, on the economy, safety, a plan for brexit, or broader leadership, is incredibly strong compared to any of the alternatives. The fact that the government has got a plan and is working through it, and that it is strong on the economy and that it is strong on the economy and on the core issues, actually, i think there is an element here that is about Government Strength as well, of course, as the chaos in the labour party. Our next chart shows the decline of labour instagram sent in stoke on Trent Central. Lets remind ourselves of the versions of the stoke on trent constituency. Constituency boundaries changed over the years. Getting back to the heart of this constituency, labour has held this since 1935. They held it before then, too. It was only when they were in National Government in they were in National Government in the early 30s when they lost. It is basically deemed a labour heartland seat, and has been for as long as people can remember. 1997, the year of tony blairs Landslide Victory Againstjohn major, labour got 66 . By againstjohn major, labour got 66 . By200l againstjohn major, labour got 66 . By 2001, another landslide victory for by 2001, another landslide victory foer blair, by 2001, another landslide victory for mr blair, the labour share of the vote was down to 61 . By 2005, labour won the vote was down to 61 . By 2005, labourwon again, the vote was down to 61 . By 2005, labour won again, third election in a row, not so much by a landslide this time, but labours share of the vote down to 53 . In 2010, when mr hunt was elected, down to 39 , and he repeated 39 in 2015. Barry gardiner, when you look at that chart, that is a kind of visual representation of the decline of labour in one of its heartland seats. You are absolutely right, and i think you are also right to point out that there were significant Boundary Changes after 2005 which soared. So it is a bit hard to compare like with like, but it isnt a pleasing chart. Yes, and stoke was an area of the country which really lost out in the way in which the whole of the loss of Manufacturing Industry took grip in the uk. I think it was one of those victims of globalisation, if you like. Why are they abandoning labour, in that case . Would they go to labour to protect them in a time of economic change . It also shows, and what those bar chart show particularly, it shows that the attempt to try and say that this is in some way about Jeremy Corbyn and the leadership is absolutely wrong. Its about a long term change in the way in which British Society is gone. Isnt that even more worrying for you, if its not just even more worrying for you, if its notjustjeremy even more worrying for you, if its not just Jeremy Corbyn . Its even more worrying for you, if its notjustJeremy Corbyn . Its a systemic problem that you face. think there is a real issue in the way in which the whole of politics in this country is working, and the way in which people feel, the loss of manufacturing, the imbalance there was in the economy, the way in which Financial Services and other Service Industries have dominated, and you can see that actually the way in which we respond to that as Political Parties, i think that we in the labour party have a lot of work to do to make sure that we have the proper response to that, but its about equality and fairness, and about ensuring that those communities that are currently being left behind, like stoke and copeland, have people there arguing for them. The labour party is meant to be for people who were left behind, people who are suffering from Major Economic changes. It was about people who were on the wrong end of the industrial revolution. It was people who hadnt had a vote. It was people who hadnt had a vote. It was people who hadnt had a vote. It was people who were in slums, people who we re people who were in slums, people who were being left behind by general prosperity, yet now the people being left behind dont turn to you. In fa ct left behind dont turn to you. In fact what i was saying was it was the change in the decline in Manufacturing Industry and labour of course is built on those workers in Manufacturing Industry, and as Manufacturing Industry, and as manufacturing declined, its not surprising therefore that the labour vote declined in the same way. You are right of course, labour has a lwa ys are right of course, labour has always stuck up for those who are marginalised, for those in the slum housing, but actually increasingly we come into a much harsher society andi we come into a much harsher society and i think its difficult to get that voice and get that appreciated when people feel that they are on the Receiving End of it. They dont feel as generous, sometimes. Lets go to copeland, where we are joined by kat smith. Shes an mp from the area, ithink by kat smith. Shes an mp from the area, i think her constituency is adjacent to copeland. Shes in the Jeremy Corbyn Shadow Cabinet, she is live from the counting copeland. We understand its on a knife edge of kat smith. Are we any clear yet which way the knife is going to cut . Well, its fair to say that its looking very close here at copeland, andi looking very close here at copeland, and i think thats a testament to the campaign that the labour party has run here, at a time when we are somewhere between 15 and 18 points behind in the polls, to be still waiting on the resulting copeland and not sure which way its going to fall is testament to the campaign we ran and tapping into the issues that people feel about very strongly around here, which is about the nhs and particularly about Hospital Services in west cumbria. If its on a night knife aids this is a labour seat you are defending in a by election in the middle of a conservative government. It shouldnt be on a knife edge. You shouldnt be on a knife edge. You should be walking it . Andrew, i think its fair to say that copeland has never been a safe labour seat. Its always been a marginal seat. Its always been a marginal seat. Its always been a marginal seat. Its always been a labour seat. With Boundary Changes its become more marginal. Weve never held copeland with huge majorities. Its always been one of those seats which is made up of very different types of demographics. When did you last lose it . Where labour has always held as far as it . Where labour has always held as faras im aware it . Where labour has always held as far as im aware the seats of copeland, its never been by particularly huge majorities. It was considered to be one of our marginal seats and a key want to defend the last two general elections. At a time when the labour party isnt doing particularly well in the National Polls, to be waiting to find out the result from copeland, to me, suggests that the issues weve been talking about in this by Election Campaign, issues around Hospital Services, issues actually about West Cumberland hospital, which is about an hours drive away from carlisle, people having to travel. I understand that. Of course. Its something people feel strongly about in this part of the world. They may do, but weve yet to see if they feel strongly enough to keep your party in power. If this is nothing unusual, that labour is on a knife edge here defending the in a by election in the middle of a conservative government, when did you last lose a by election to a conservative government . you last lose a by election to a conservative government . I think ill let some political historian give you the answer to that one. All right, im nota give you the answer to that one. All right, im not a historian, give you the answer to that one. All right, im nota historian, but give you the answer to that one. All right, im not a historian, but ill give you, it was 1960. Ive lost the sound. It was 1960 that you last lost, and you only had a majority of 47 in that seat in 1960, and it came ha rd 47 in that seat in 1960, and it came hard on the heels of the 1959 Conservative Landslide Election victory. The reason i raised that is to show how in modern times, unprecedented it would be for labour to lose a seat like copeland, and that rather the fact that at its on a knife edge is hardly a testament to yourcampaign, its a knife edge is hardly a testament to your campaign, its a testament to your campaign, its a testament to the state the labour party is in at the moment. Well, back in 2017, weve seen the conservatives throw the kitchen sink at this by election in terms of the resources theyve put into copeland. Given the National Polling figures, labour really, we shouldnt be in with a Fighting Chance if National Polls we re Fighting Chance if National Polls were to be reflected locally, but the fact is were still waiting for the fact is were still waiting for the result. We dont know what its going to be. Thats a testament to a really strong Labour Campaign and peoples strongly held beliefs about nhs services in west cumbria. Despite the fact you think youve done a great campaign, sorry about your struggling with your mp5, its happened to me too, its so annoying at times but im grateful to you for persevering with it. If you hear me, ill continue. Despite the fact you think the knife edge is a testament to yourcampaign and think the knife edge is a testament to your campaign and you are quite right to emphasise the importance particularly of this Maternity Hospital, potential closure, driving up hospital, potential closure, driving upi hospital, potential closure, driving up i think its the a575 to carlisle, its not something you wa nt to carlisle, its not something you want to be doing if youre about to give birth, i understand big issues there, but if you dont win, even with all that, even with the nhs, state of, local issues of the nhs, what would that then say about the labour party . Im not sure if i heard all of the question, but i think. It was quite long what happens if labour loses . We havent got a result here yet and its too early to speculate. 0k, all right. Kat smith, well leave it for now. Because as i can see, that earpiece is causing new real problems. I hope we can come back to you when weve sorted that out as the night goes on. Lets just look at the copeland result, in the general election, that labour won. 42 of the vote, they got, the turnout was 64 , a decent turnout that in a big rural constituency. Labour went into this by election, copeland is geographically the biggest Constituency Labour has in england and it stretches, you see on our map their, from the coast of the north east of england, into the lake district. Its bigger than copeland district itself, and labour took it with 42 of the vote, jamie read the candidate, the conservatives came second with 36 , the lib dems way down on 16, that says labour there but it must be a different, actually, im not sure what labour at 3 , anyway, its 3 so we dont need to detain ourselves too much the Labour Majority, 2500. It is a decent majority in 2015. They were defending. Not a decent majority in 2015. They were defending. Nota huge decent majority in 2015. They were defending. Not a huge majority, but for decent majority in 2015. They were defending. Not a huge majority, but for a labour opposition in a by election, in the middle of the conservative government, its the kind of majority that in years gone by labour would not only have no problem defending, but actually, would almost certainly as a share of the vote increased their share of the vote increased their share of the vote, and yet now we have it on a knife edge. Kat smith said that copeland has always been tight, its a Lwa Ys Copeland has always been tight, its always been close. In 1997, labour won 58 of the voting copeland. The idea this is somehow an uber marginal. I agree, its not an uber marginal. But 97 wasnt exceptional. Your party was destroyed. We havent won this seat since 1935. No, you havent. Actually, you havent won it since 1951, and that was only because of the National Government, labour was down to a rump of about 50 seats in that election. We only need to go backin that election. We only need to go back in time that far, if we are still on at 5am at this stage. Let mejust show you, still on at 5am at this stage. Let me just show you, interesting, because Barry Gardiner was mentioning earlier on about how brexit, in some ways seems to be changing the nature of british politics and changing voters relationship with the Political Parties and its an interesting thought. Lets look at copeland there. Both the seats up tonight we re there. Both the seats up tonight were leave seats, one in the midlands, the other in the north west of inward. Copeland voted 60 to leave, remain a0 , these are estimates because we didnt vote by constituency in the referendum or count, but these are pretty good estimates that have been worked on. Stoke on Trent Central, even more brexit. Wipe paul nuttall called it brexit. Wipe paul nuttall called it brexit central, leave 65 , remain only 35 . So two pretty strong brexit seats, and of course in stoke on trent, labour chose a remain, a pro remain candidate, although he did say if hed been in the house hed have voted for article 50. David kurten, ukip, ifi can bring you in, looking at stoke central, you had a lot going for user. A constituency that voted 65 to leave on your key issue. Yes, absolutely, politics has changed since brexit and its a big issue. We are seeing lots of enthusiasm on the doors and to date, people who have been in the Polling Stations say theres been a lot of enthusiasm for people who were voting for ukip, whereas the turnout has been quite low. Labour hasnt been able to get out so many people that voted for them in the past. No, but by election is always have low turnout and enthusiasm would you do you any good if you dont win. We are still hoping we will win and the results arent in yet. We will have to see in a couple of hours time. My to see in a couple of hours time. My point is there was a confluence of events, which gave you a great opportunity. This was, as weve seen from the charts there, a substantial leave seat. Its a by election caused by a labour mp resigning, a labourmp caused by a labour mp resigning, a labour mp resigning to go and work ina very labour mp resigning to go and work in a very big, posh, extravagant museum in south kensington. Causing a by election that the people of stoke didnt really think needed to be caused, theyd Onlyjust Re Voted Him in as their mp. People dont like when by elections are called to suit the politicians convenience, so you had that going for you, you had the tories Thinking Copeland is a better bet for us, so we will put more resources in there. You add up these things and you picked paul nuttall, your new leader, hes a northerner himself, hes anti metropolitan, and to the liberal consensus. You had a co nflu e nce liberal consensus. You had a confluence of events, i would suggest, that meant this should have been a seat that you should have won. Well, we still can win and the votes being counted. You showed the graphic a few minutes ago of labours vote going down and down and down over the years and whatever happens tonight, that vote will go down again for labour. Itjust shows the metropolitan part of labour are very much out of touch with the ordinary people who live in areas like stoke. If they still win the love that matters to you. Thats hypothetical. May not be for very long. We go back to copeland. This looks like the one that is really on a knife edge because weve got the independent mayor of copeland, mike starkie. Because you are an independent, were going to treat you not just as independent, were going to treat you notjust as the independent mayor, were going to deputise you as one of our correspondence for tonight. Let me ask you, as the independent mayor, whats your feeling . A knife edge . As i asked before, which way is it going . Its very, very close. When the final result comes in its going to be down to hundreds rather than thousands. 0ver to hundreds rather than thousands. Over the course of the night, i think talking to people around the hall, the conservatives seem to be growing a bit in confidence, so maybe that gives an indication its tipping their way, but albeit very slightly. Was this a well Fought Campaign by the two main parties that were in the running to win here . Did it grabs the people of copeland . Well, the turnout, 51 , is quite good for a by election, when you look at some of the by elections round the country in recent years. We are bit down on what the vote was in the general election, back in 2015. But as i said, for a by election to get over 50 turnout, im led to believe thats a pretty good turnout. So its obviously got the interest of a good number of the people of the borough. This has been, as weve been saying, a labour seat for as long as anybody can remember. If labour were to lose it ina remember. If labour were to lose it in a by election, under a conservative government, that would surprise you, i would suggest, would it not . I think it would be a catastrophic result for labour to lose copeland. They have held the seat that 82 years. I doubt anyone alive can remember anything other than a labourmp here. Even remember anything other than a labour mp here. Even the result coming in close in labours faber is way down on what you would expect. Thank you forjoining us from the count in whitehaven, the coastal town of whitehaven, the biggest town, i think, town of whitehaven, the biggest town, ithink, in town of whitehaven, the biggest town, i think, in your constituency. Thank you forjoining us. We will see if it proves right. The independent mayor saying that he thinks the tories mightjust have clinched it, but we dont know. Who is smiling more than others . We havent got a clue. Hundreds of votes could be in it, the mayor said. I hate to say this, because my heart could sink at the thought, but there could be a recount if there is that vote, which would cheer up my panel no end lets go to the end to the man we always depend onjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. He is a few hundred yards away in our westminster newsroom. What are your thoughts about these two constituencies . Lets talk about copeland. The truth is they have only been three occasions, three by elections since 1945 in which the Principal Opposition Party has lost a by election to the government. The last one was in mid june and morden in 1982. That was a special circumstance, a sitting labour mp, bruce douglas, defected to the ftp and insisted on resigning his seat and insisted on resigning his seat and defending it as an sdp candidate, and the boat was split. Before that, you have to go back to brighouse in 1960, Sunderland South in1953, and in brighouse in 1960, Sunderland South in 1953, and in both cases, the Labour Majority was wafer thin. 51 share in one case, 53 in the other. In copeland, labour are starting 6. 5 points behind. If i stress that, if the labour party have lost copeland, it will count arithmetically as the worst defeat for an opposition at the hands of the government in any by election since 1945. One would simply have to say that this is in line with the evidence of the opinion polls, with Labour Running at about 26 in the National Opinion polls, and the only time since 1945 they had been in a worse position was during the darkest days of Gordon Browns administration in the wa ke Gordon Browns administration in the wake of the mps expense scandal, so it would be further indication of how weak labours position is. Over the last couple of weeks, the tension has been rather more on stoke and whether ukip could win it. The truth that we should bear in mind is that stoke was always the saviour of the seats. And i think perhaps ukip, in claiming they are going to go for the labour vote in the north of england, are rather misleading where that opportunity actually lies in the wake of the brexit vote. If you look at the opinion polls, unsurprisingly, hardly anybody who voted for remain is voting for ukip. And all their supporters are coming from that half of the electorate that voted to leave. You ask yourself, of the two parties, conservative and labour, which of the two had more leave voters, even in labour held constituencies in the north and midlands . The answer to that question is not labour but the conservatives. I think the truth is that ukip, in trying to go for the labour vote, yes, they have already clearly got the decline of labour vote in stoke, and ukip have so far done well by winning over a certain section of the ex labour vote, but i think they now need to realise that, given the nature of the labour vote now, actually their target should be the conservatives, not labour, because it is the conservatives who at the moment have the support in the polls of leave voters. We hear that we may not be far from a result at stoke on Trent Central, because the turnout was quite low, and its a smaller constituency and copeland. We can see the counting going on. Quite a lot of them look like they have finished counting, sitting there with their bundles of ballots neatly piled in front of them, looking satisfied with a job well done, patiently waiting on a few. I think nearly all the votes have been counted. What is happening there is that they are looking at some contested Ballot Papers, some Ballot Papers that the adjudicator will have to decide which way they should be counted, or not. And, if they are, which party should get them. I think we are down to the final stretch there. I think we have got labours jack dromey in stoke. Just a quick process question, it looks like we are not far from a result . Yes, i think thats right. The count has been going on for some hours. It remains tough and tight. Its a 3 way marginal. But i think we are right to be increasingly optimistic about the likely outcome. Doesnt it worry you that, even if you hold onto it, but it has been a lot more ofa onto it, but it has been a lot more of a contest than it really should have been for a labour party in opposition, under a conservative government . It doesnt worry me at all, because this was a defining moment. It was either the moment that ukip broke through in labours northern heartland or it was the moment that the tide was turned on ukip. When paul nuttall run for leadership of ukip, he said, vote for me and i will break labour in its heartland. Well, i think the outcome of tonight will be not that labour is broken but that paul nuttall and ukip is broken. 0nly last week, nigel farage said that winning in stoke, talking about turning stoke into the ukip capital of britain. Nigel farage said, this is fundamental to ukip. Well, if we win tonight, ukip have some profound questions to answer, because they have been thoroughly discredited in this campaign. We have fought a good, positive, local campaign. In paul nuttall, you have a man who simply wants to stop off in stoke on his road to westminster, using the city, and it became increasingly clear throughout that the campaign that the man had a loose sense the truth. But if you have a tough fight to win stoke in a by election, where would you have a tough fight . We have much to do to rebuild, to regain the trust and confidence of the british people, but there is a simple reality arising out of stoke. Paul nuttall said that we are now the party of the Working Class, of working people. Labour is, has a lwa ys working people. Labour is, has always been and always will be the party of working people. So, ultimately, if we win tonight, it is the good people of stoke rejecting the good people of stoke rejecting the fundamental nature of ukip, which would seek to divide and to peddle hatred for their own Party Political advantage. But your share of the vote has been in steady decline since 1997, in a state a seat like stoke, a labour heartland seat. If it is lower than 39 tonight, this morning, it will be in further decline as well. How can that give you any comfort, if your vote is declining in a seat like stoke on Trent Central . Vote is declining in a seat like stokeonTrent Central . Tonight, we turned the tide, andrew. But we have much to do. Of that there is no doubt, to regain trust and confidence. I understand the sense of grievance in stoke. Ifirst confidence. I understand the sense of grievance in stoke. I first came to stoke the best part of 35 years ago in the trade union movement. Then, you could walk out of a good job ina then, you could walk out of a good job in a factory on friday morning and walk into another one on monday. Now the world of work is much more insecure. Wages in stoke are beneath the national average. So i understand those discontents, and what we have to do is effectively voice those at the next stages, but what was so good about our contain what was so good about our contain what we did precisely that. It was a local campaign, rooted in the concerns of the people stoke, arguing there was a choice between taking somebody who simply wanted to use stoke to westminster or sending somebody who is of stoke and will stand up for stoke. Well, he is actually from suffolk, the candidate, so i wouldnt overdo the stoke element. He is not a native son of stoke. He has made his life here. He has married here and is bringing up his kid here. He is a man who eats, sleeps and freeze stoke, somebody who will stand up for stoke in circumstances where, as came out strongly in the by Election Campaign, there is this feeling in stoke, which i sympathise with, that westminster is 1000 miles away. They are squeezed between Greater Manchester in the north and birmingham in the south. They want stoke to be put on the map by somebody who is off them and will stand up for them, and that is what i believe will happen tonight. Did mr blairs intervention on the brexit debate, or Peter Mandelson saying, that the thinks his main mission in life now is to do down Jeremy Corbyn . Did that do any damage . We were monitoring throughout impact on how people felt. Be straight answer is no. What was felt on the doorstep, and we we re was felt on the doorstep, and we were getting these reports every day, was both support for our campaign, the hospital facing 100,000 Million Pounds deficit, the Children Centre threatened with closure by a conservative ukip council, and a strong position saying that brexit will happen, we will leave the European Union, lets see who is best for stoke. We stood up see who is best for stoke. We stood upfor see who is best for stoke. We stood up for National Security in stoke. This is a city with a Defence Culture. Jordan robertson came here and said, labour founded culture. Jordan robertson came here and said, labourfounded nato. We have never needed nato more than in a dangerous and uncertain world. Did your leader say that during the by Election Campaign . Did mr corbyn say that . It was our candidate in a very good local campaign that stood up very good local campaign that stood upfor very good local campaign that stood up for that Defence Culture in stoke, with its Defence Manufacturing and recruiting ground for the army. Just one other thing, what we also did was to recognise that sense of englishness in stoke, that sense of englishness in stoke, that pride in stoke pride in country, and what we are not going to do is to cede the ground of a truism to the right. The ground of patriotism. For too long, people like paul nuttall have sought to exploit that for their own advantage. We have seen a highly effective local campaign, rooted in the realities and concerns of the people of stoke. I believe, if we win tonight, it will be a defining moment, of that there is no doubt. The stakes could not have been higher. Now ukip will have to reflect on where they go. I know where we are going. Sending an excellent mental westminster. David kurten has been listening. Best an excellent man to westminster. What do you think of what he said . Excellent man to westminster. What do you think of what he said7m doesnt sound any labour man i have heard from in the last couple of yea rs. Heard from in the last couple of years. Saying he is the patriotic Working Class, you have such a divide in labour between the metropolitan elite, the inhabitants of the westminster bubble, and those outside who voted for brexit. You have a candidate here youll called brexit a pile of excrement. I would the exact word. Best i want. Talking about ukip being associated with hatred is ridiculous. 0ur party, obviously we want to come out of the European Union, and that is because we wa nt European Union, and that is because we want the money we spent on bureaucrats spent in this country on the nhs. We dont want to go ahead with a chest to, for example. Want to spend that on front line services, education, health, the police and force and things people need. We dont want to go ahead with high speed 2. We see here that negativity, trying to smear the opposition. He talks about his own campaign being positive, but we see here in everything that he said a very negative campaign. His attitude is quite negative. You reported jordan 1 account. By the way, is arriving at account. By the way, he hasnt been around stoke much. got that, jack dromey. I wanted ask you a question, talking about george robinson, we have never needed nato more, him being a former nato secretary general, so its not surprising he is saying that. Has Jeremy Corbyn ever said, we have never needed nato more . The policy of the labour party is to support nato, because nato is necessary to the defence of National Security, not just of the the defence of National Security, notjust of the british people but of continental europe. But has Jeremy Corbyn ever said that . Powers was a United Campaign with everybody behind it. Powers was. Was a United Campaign with everybody behind it. Powers was. But has Jeremy Corbyn ever said that nato has never been needed more . Look, we area has never been needed more . Look, we are a united party. That is not what iam asking are a united party. That is not what i am asking you. At all levels, there has been support from Jeremy Douglas for everything we have said in stoke. What we are saying is where labour stands. But you cant tell me if your leader has ever said that he supports nato and believes that he supports nato and believes that nato has ever been more necessary. Can you tell me when he said that . It is the policy of the labour party, of which he is leader, to support nato. Has he ever said it . Andrew, with the greatest of respect, we can twist and turn on this. Its a simple question, as your leader ever said he supports nato and it has never been more important . Its a simple question. have given you my answer, from Jeremy Douglas, everything we have said in stoke is said by a united party. From jeremy downwards. We thank you, we are getting close toa we thank you, we are getting close to a result. 0ur viewers will make up to a result. 0ur viewers will make up their minds on how you answer that as the view was always do. I just need to go straight back to copeland now, to Andrew Stevenson mp. Conservative mp. Hes in the counting copeland. Mr stevenson, can you bring is up to date on what we are all calling a knife edge . Its still very early here. We are now properly into the count and the ballots are being separated. Its looking close. But i cant tell you who is ahead at this current time. So you are not sure if you have won or not . We are not sure, but the fa ct or not . We are not sure, but the fact that this is close in a seat that the labour party have held for over 80 years, against the Governing Party which of Course Governing Parties dont gain in by elections. The last time was 1982. Its a humiliation forJeremy Corbyn. Yes, do you thing we are in recount territory . Its too early to say who is ahead of whos going to come out of this at the end of the night, but it is clear that there are some worried labour faces at this count. If you dont win, it would be a bit disappointing for you. As john curtice was explaining, its historically would be a huge event if you were to win, but given that you did think you were a ring with a chance in and new new in unusual circumstances, given the resources you put into it, you had a strong candidate, you had the Nuclear Issue on your side as well, the Prime Minister visited. It would, on your side as well, the Prime Ministervisited. It would, in on your side as well, the Prime Minister visited. It would, in the end, bea minister visited. It would, in the end, be a bit of a disappointment for you now, wouldnt it . end, be a bit of a disappointment for you now, wouldnt it . I think we do have an exceptional candidate, Trudy Harrison. Shes fought a really positive and upbeat Campaign Hearing Copeland and we fought for every vote. The Prime Minister did visited, Jeremy Corbyn visited three times and said the labour party would hold and other members of the Shadow Cabinet said the labour party would increase their majority here. Its too early to say, but it doesnt look like labour has increased their majority. You are seeing a safe labour seat on the verge of potentially changing hands. All right, suitably cautious, Andrew Stephenson wilson we shall wait and see. Thank you from joining us from the whitehaven sports centre, whether counties. Matt hancock, the Prime Minister did visit copeland, but im not sure she did your candidate any favours. She was unable to give any guarantees on this threat and Maternity Hospital and she was unable to give any guarantees on whether the new new Nuclear Power station would go ahead. She went and supported, Trudy Harrison was a brilliant candidate. I really hope for her sake. Stick with my question. The Prime Minister went, its clear that position on the nhs was very clear. She wasnt clear on the Maternity Hospital. The position is very clear, which is there is a locally led review and its right that its clinically led and just because theres a by election on you cant then have a political in possession of a result. What we did find. So she couldnt give clarification. What we found out was Trudy Harrison was campaigning incredibly hard and taking the issue right to the Prime Minister. And on the other issue, because there are plans to build a proposal to build a new Nuclear Power station, indeed i think three is the Long Term Plan to build there, and of course sellafield is there. Its an important Nuclear Power, it is a major employer, an employer of well paid jobs as well, she was not able to clarify if that was going to go ahead either. What did she do to your campaign . The development at moorside is important and we are working hard to land that, but of course its early stages in landing that deal. Toshiba, who were going to build it, so they cant afford it now. Last week they put out a clarity kind statement, but you are right, the Nuclear Issue they said they are continuing to work on the deal. Whatever the situation with that. Uncertainty, we can describe it as. 0ur candidates, trudy, her husband works at sellafield, she was very strong on the Nuclear Issue and its an incredibly important issue. All right, are you feeling a bit left out, the lib dems here quite often by elections are the lib dems are the story, as they were in richmond. You won a by election tonight, quite a spectacular results, in Local Government. But you are nowhere here, are you . Its not territory for us. You saw from the result that you showed from last time that we are going to come from a fairly low base. Very low you could call it. Im confident we will increase from that and as you say we are doing really well in local elections tonight. From not standing last time, we got 54 ascent of the vote from the tories and in devon and kettering. Brilliant. Why are you doing so well in Local Government by elections, but not seeming to move much in the National Polls . Because we had such loss of credibility in 2015, so weve got to gradually build that back up again, which we are doing. 33 net gains. Im notarguing, which we are doing. 33 net gains. Im not arguing, not which we are doing. 33 net gains. Im notarguing, notjust which we are doing. 33 net gains. Im not arguing, notjust good result, very good results. Ive got you that, its the National Poll i was asking about. Liberal democrats have always built from the bottom up and just watch this space. Id like to pick up on one point. Very briefly. That jack dromey made. He was arguing a Labour Victory in stoke would be some kind of triumph. In every election from the 50s, to 2005, labour have got over 50 of the vote in stoke. This idea that a Labour Victory and stoke is some kind of triumph forJeremy Corbyn and the labour party is for the birds. It would be a relief, i would suggest was yellow its extraordinary that its even. Lets go back to stoke, we are near the result. Chris mason is there, bring us up to date. I think we are edging towards a result. Never a sentence i liked it out loud for the obvious consequences ill probably be wrong and it will be an hour and a half away or whatever. But the main candidates are here. Gareth sneu main candidates are here. Gareth snell for labour, paul nuttall for ukip arriving in the last 15 or 20 minutes and it looked i think like a man who thinks hes going to lose. The mood music coming out of ukip sources here, throughout the evening, has been on the heavy expectation management side, so theyve been talking about what they see as the drawbacks of the first past the post system. Theyve been talking, and i havent heard this before from them during the campaign, but they suddenly started referring to the fact that stoke on Trent Central was 74th 75th on their list of target seats in 2015, which they were not saying until this evening. 2015, which they were not saying untilthis evening. Labour talking about how important it would be to be ukip, but theyve help this seat since 1950 and on tweaked boundaries since 1935, so even if there was a certain element of surprise if labour hold onto this seat, historically it should not be surprising at all. The more i spoke to jack dromey there, the more he talked, the more it was clear that he thinks theyve won. He thinks labour have won. I think that was clear, from everything he said. Yes, absolutely. He said to me earlier on that he was cautiously optimistic, which it usually political code for having won and won fairly co mforta ble. Having won and won fairly comfortable. 0ne having won and won fairly comfortable. One source said labour could win very comfortably indeed. Throughout the night the mood music from labour has been one of victory. The mood music from ukip has been one of defeat and there hasnt been a shift in that since the polls closed at 10pm. I think we are heading vaguely in the direction of declaration, because paul nuttall and ukip were making the argument earlier in the evening that he wouldnt roll up here until there was roughly half an hour to go. So maybe, just maybe, we might be less than half an hour away from the result. If labour has won reasonably co mforta bly, result. If labour has won reasonably comfortably, put it another way, if ukip has performed reasonably badly, it would suggest there could be blood on the ukip floor by tomorrow morning. Yes, i was chatting to paul 0akden, the chairman of ukip and making that exact point, because what is really striking is that paul nuttall, last summer, it seems an eternity ago at this, but paul nuttall last summer ruled himself out of running for the ukip leadership because he said hed seen the toll it had taken on nigel farage and he didnt want to inflict that level of scrutiny and pressure 24 hours a day, seven days a week, on him and his family. And of course, what happened, a few months later, after one of ukips blasts of internal turbulence, there he was as party leader and exactly what he predicted what happened has happened. Hes had a Double Barrel of scrutiny. The scrutiny associated with being a party leader under scrutiny associated with being a prominent candidate in a very prominent candidate in a very prominent by election. The cumulative chipping away at him, around where he was living in stoke, around where he was living in stoke, around whether he was ever a professional football and no, he wasnt, he was a youth player at tranmere, whether he was ever the recipient of a ph. D. , no, tranmere, whether he was ever the recipient ofa ph. D. , no, he tranmere, whether he was ever the recipient of a ph. D. , no, he never finished it, and that deeply damaging and embarrassing row about hillsborough and those claims and quotes from him on his website that turns out were completely wrong, i think was really striking about all of that is that even if he loses tonight and who knows whether that will have been a Contributory Factoring in him losing, those questions will remain in terms of potentially chipping away at his credibility and authority as ukip leader. You do wonder whether hes going to have the appetite in the medium term to carry on doing the job and whether there others in ukip who might think there might be somebody else better to do the job. But then theres a bigger, broader question for ukip, which is if they cant win in seats like this, given that theyve achieved their central objective, or they will eventually have achieved their overall objective of leaving the European Union, where can they win . Is nevertheless it looks as if ukip have come second, and we dont know how good a second, but if theyve come second, have you been able to getan come second, have you been able to get an explanation as to why the Prime Minister visited the constituency . No, i havent had an explanation for that. Because what was really striking was when the Prime Minister went to cope and that was immediately read as a signal that the Prime Minister is turning up that the Prime Minister is turning up in what has been a labour city since the sailing of the arc, and therefore the conservatives must be red hot confident they are going to nick this seat for labour. And yet she then turned up here in stoke and over the last couple of days there we re over the last couple of days there were 12 macro excited flutters of speculation suggesting the tories might be doing much better than some had suggested one more two excited flutters. For the conservatives conservatives to come close in the glik stoke on Trent Central, particularly when they are in government and governments tend to go backwards rather than forwards in by elections, is extraordinary. I dont think her sick appearance here signalled Conservative Headquarters worth dead cert they would prove the pundits wrong i dont think her appearance here signalled. Its clearly like that image we saw of her in the House Of Lords the other day, something that downing street, to use the parlance, the optics of it, wanted to be seen to be showing her, trying to reach everywhere and all the rest of it, i guessed it visually illustrate that mantra she likes to trot out of being seen as this one nation conservative who is rebranding the party from how David Cameron approached things. We will let you go, so you can carry them along and tell them to stop messing around, get on with it. I am sure they will listen to you, not to me, but they will to you. Chris mason, we will come back to you. Barry gardiner, you wanted to come in. As you said earlier, the conservatives at the beginning of this campaign really focused their attention on copeland, because they wa nted attention on copeland, because they wanted as much as possible to give ukipa wanted as much as possible to give ukip a free run at unseating labour. The double whammy. You showed the graph drew, they were Level Pegging at the last general election, and the conservatives took a calculator decision. They then saw Paul Nuttalls Campaign Implode so spectacularly that they thought, actually, maybe we should be re focusing our efforts on stoke to see if we can leapfrog. So i think that explains what was going on. I think it was cynical of the conservative party to actually want to give ukip that free run. They couldnt have predicted that Paul Nuttalls campaign would be mired so much. But it looks like that strategy doesnt come off. It looks that way. Lets look at labours opinion poor average since last march. It looked pretty dire. They have gone from 33 in march down to 27, pretty consistent downward trend. The reason we were given during the summer of last year and even into the autumn is that the Leadership Campaign had deflected from the issues, had made labour seem divided, people dont like endless Leadership Campaigns and that was why when that was over, things would get better. Looking at that, it hasnt stopped we are six points lower. That isnt where we should be. And i think that we have had two very bruising internal fights in the labour party over the leadership. That Leadership Question was settled, and what i am pleased about is the way in which the Parliamentary Labour Party has now begun, the front bench is now filled, people have come back to serve and to begin focusing on the real challenge, which is to be a functioning, proper opposition, attacking the conservative government for the way in which they are failing on issues like social care, education. But you need to get on with it. We do. We are six points lower. No, you are being very honest but im not trying to make more of it than you. That is a job we have to do and we have until 2020 and we are getting on with it. Let me show you one more chart, and then we will go tojohn curtice. These are the leader net approval ratings. You can see, i think you can conclude that nobody is that popular, but mrs may is in positive territory, the Prime Minister. Tim farron is negative at minus ten. Mr nuttall, minus 18. He could be falling even lower in recent days. This is the latest poll we have. The big figure, as you can see, is mr corbyn, 35 net approval rating. That puts him in a league of his own. Coupled with labours opinion poor ratings graph, it isnt a great sign. John curtice, you follow these charts and polls more closely than anyone else. What do you think is the explanation . Lets stick with labour down at 27. I think in one poll, they were wrecked 24, really dangerous territory. What is your explanation . The longterm is your explanation . The longterm is fairly clear. Difficulty number one for labour is, how do they persuade people that actually eight social Democratic Party like labour can manage capitalism in such a way that, to use the currentjargon, the left behind feel that labour can govern in their interest. I think, since the financial crash, its been very difficult for labour to make the case. That isnt unique to the labour party, its common to a number of social democratic parties. The second problem that Labour Have Isa the second problem that labour have is a problem of leadership. Its clear that so farJeremy Corbyn has convinced very few people in the country that he has what it takes to be Prime Minister, but the other real problem is, once you raise that point, you go onto, who is there on the front bench of the labour party that might be capable of persuading the public that they look like a Prime Minister . So far, it seems nobody has stepped into those particular shoes. In a sense, it was remarkable last week at a speech by nx labour Prime Minister who has an awful lot of baggage around him made much more bars in any speech made by any current Labour Politician for some considerable time. There is also a short term problem for labour, that perhaps labour have failed to appreciate. What i have particularly been looking at is the decline in labour support since last summer. In other words, since theresa may became Prime Minister and since labour at its Leadership Election. If this was simply a problem to do with dislike ofJeremy Corbyn, youd expect the decline in the labour party to happen both among remain and leave voters. It hasnt. It occurred almost exclusively among those Labour Voters who voted to remain and it looks like they have gone to the liberal democrats, and the short term problem, which is pretty fundamental, that labour may face is that, having decided to vote in favour of article 50, rather than simply abstaining, they have misread their electoral situation, which is that actually a clear majority of Labour Voters, people who voted Labour Voters, people who voted labour in 2015, voted to remain, and theyve been trying to chase the mythical Working Class labour leave vote, but these are quite thin on the ground. Given its wider political difficulties, the first thing labour has to do is hang on to its existing vote, and i think its sta nce its existing vote, and i think its stance on brexit is put at risk. Barry gardiner . Its an interesting analysis. If you look at our constituencies, our constituency mps, two thirds of our mps voted to remain themselves are actually in leave seats, and yet two thirds of our voters leave seats, and yet two thirds of our voters across leave seats, and yet two thirds of our voters across the country are actually ones who voted to remain. We are very divided in this way as a party. But i would urge you to remember that the party is very divided on this. It was 48 52. Actually, in that sense, the travails that the labour party is going through with brexit are ones that the country is going to go through as well. What we have to do is work our way through as a country toa is work our way through as a country to a point where we get the shape of our leaving settlement to be a cce pta ble our leaving settlement to be acceptable to everyone, the 48 and the 52. Thats impossible. I think, if you go for the sort of hard, deregulated, Offshore Tax Haven that some in the conservative party would like to see, then it is. Who is calling for that . The Prime Minister. She never said tax haven, deregulated. These are all words that you have decided to interpret what she said. I think her message to the eu was a replay, and that was, if we dont get the deal we want, that is the option we will go for. Her message was very clear. You know that it resonates with the things that people like liam fox, david davis, peter lillee, john redwood have consistently called for, that deregulation. That is part of the agenda there. Sol for, that deregulation. That is part of the agenda there. So i do think there are real issues here, where we have to try and construct a much softer brexit, one which gives Business Access into the European Market in as free a way as possible, and that is why i say we are going through traumas in this at a party, and the country is going to go through those, too. When the minister said, if we ended up with no deal, and she said no deal would be better than a bad deal but she said, if that happened, we would have to reconsider our economic model. What did she mean . She has been very clear that we will protect workers rights. That is the existing eu. That is what i was going to come onto. What did she mean by reconsidering our economic model . Making sure we are competitive as a nation so we can succeed. You wouldnt do that anyway . We have to do that as much as we can. Surely all Governments Wa Nt to as we can. Surely all governments want to try and make us competitive. What did she say by saying we would have to reconsider the economic model . Making sure we can make a success brexit, because we will have to round the world. We do Trade Around The World at the moment. You see, by not being able to answer that question, you have allowed labour to fill the question. Labour is saying that what she meant was a tax haven, singapore, deregulated, no protection. Liam fox. I am not saying that is true or not. Your inability to answer the question is that they can fill the vacuum. What does rethinking it mean . It means being a highly competitive economy, especially on the tax side. Deregulating tax is that not the economic model at the moment of this government to create a highly competitive economy . Of calls. So it isnt any different. What is new to reconsider . She also mentioned as pa rt reconsider . She also mentioned as part of this being competitive in terms of taxes. Isnt that existing Government Policy . We are reducing incorporation tax. I will try one more time. I am beginning to feel like asking jack dromey about nato. What would be knew about a new economic model . That we would be as competitive as possible. So it is existing policy to be as uncompetitive as possible. Of course its not. Whats the difference . We are going to make a success of brexit and barry is wrong in the argument that somehow the fact that labour havent got a united plan on brexit, that its all going to come right for them. The truth is that there is only one party that is strong on the economy, strong on safety, as they plan on brexit, and frankly has strong leadership. If you look at those figures on leadership that you showed, you concentrated on the negativeJeremy Corbyn once, its unusual for any politician to be positive, and the Fa Ct Politician to be positive, and the fact that theresa may as a positive rating is significant. Its not unusual, plenty of leaders have had positive ratings. Its her Honeymoon Period and she still only has that figure. She can reach parts of the country. Conservative Prime Ministers have not been able to get there for some time. I know when to quit lets go back to tom bateman at the count in copland. Tom, bring us at the count in copland. Tom, bring us up to date. At the count in copland. Tom, bring us uptodate. Andrew, we are still having lots of counting going on. I think we are still at least an hour away from a declaration. I have to tell you that very little has changed in terms of the mood between labour and the tories. Imc and lots of conservatives with their blue rosettes standing round with arms folded, quite as ebullient and bullish as they were at the start of the night, particularly earlier this week. Not quite. Does that tell us week. Not quite. Does that tell us that they think they are not going to get the seat . Im not so sure. 0ne going to get the seat . Im not so sure. One of the key points about this constituency is it is huge. Getting people out at each Polling Station is a lot harder here. I think thats why there has been less intelligence about how the result might pan out. But still the word is from both sides that this is a two horse race and they still dont know who is going to win. 0ne horse race and they still dont know who is going to win. One factor that has been bouncing around the whole, that gives you a sense, allows us to frame the importance, the potentially historic nature of a conservative win, the last conservative win, the last Conservative Mp for this area was a child of the 70s, but that was the 18705, born child of the 705, but that was the 18705, born in 1879. Child of the 705, but that was the 1870s, born in 1879. I remember him i think 1870s, born in 1879. I remember him ithinki 1870s, born in 1879. I remember him i think i interviewed him 1870s, born in 1879. I remember him i think interviewed him i think you did. Do you remember what you said . Just to clarify one thing, they are actually still counting . They are not yet at the stage where they are assessing the doubtful Ballot Papers, the more dubious Ballot Papers, the more dubious Ballot Papers . They are still counting . We have had a bit of that, but the verification went on for a while. There was then quite a long hiatus, an unusual gap, where the people counting were given a rake. 0nce people counting were given a rake. Once they start counting, they cant stop. Counting got underway a bit later than we expected. It is still going on. I was told by one senior conservative figure here that they expect a result around 3am, but i think they might push that back a little. Lets go to stoke, which will probably report before copeland, a smaller constituency, more compact, a smaller turnout. Copeland is spread out geographically, labours biggest constituency going into this election. Bring is up to date in stoke on trent. Election. Bring is up to date in stokeontrent. Good morning from stoke, whether the Ground Breaking attempt to do the best piece of television ive ever done. Im going to step out of shot and show you what were waiting for, which is the returning officer to roll up in front of that microphone. You get a sense from the gathering crowds that its pretty imminent. Ivejust sense from the gathering crowds that its pretty imminent. Ive just seen some labour types just outside of the shot carrying. Hang on. Who is that . Thank you very much. Right, i think that means we are going to get the result pretty soon. They are gathering the candidates together right now. If i ducked below the camera, we will see if we can follow around as we see the candidate from the official monster raving loony party, and a good number of activists from the other parties as well, which would suggest we are getting relatively close to the result here. I was just saying that the labour supporters here are all carrying posters, which i expect they are planning to start waving around jubilantly when their victory is confirmed. Their victory seems pretty much a certainty now. Ukip maintaining a sense of humour, in spite of what looks like a defeat they are heading for. One ukip activist just saying to they are heading for. One Ukip Activistjust saying to me recently that whatever the result, Paul Nuttalls website will say hes won yes, well, that may be in character who knows. Well come back to you. Im glad you hurried them along, as we ask you to do last time. Looking good not looking good for ukip, is it . It would be disappointing if we dont win, but well have to see what the actual result is and how close it is. I think you are going to see the continued pattern of labour going down and what might be interesting is the percentage of the vote for labour might be less than the percentage of people who voted to remain in the European Union, so that would be quite interesting, if you had a candidate. Sorry, you will have to run that threw me again you have 35 of stoke voting to remain. If labour have less than 35 , they might have less of a vote for labour in this by election and stoke for labour in this by election and sto ke ha d for labour in this by election and stoke had to remain, so that would be quite interesting for the Labour Candidate couldnt. Be quite interesting for the Labour Candidate couldnt. In be quite interesting for the Labour Candidate couldnt. In what way would it be significant . Ukip other party for leave, so labour the problem labour have across the country is that you know that a lot of people did vote for article 50 and supported the government, but you know at heart, a lot of them didnt really want to do it. Think people understand that at heart they are not a party full of mps who really, really want to leave the European Union. They are respecting the will of the people, but i think if you want someone who was an mp who really genuinely wants to leave the European Union and get the best dealfor britain, then the European Union and get the best deal for britain, then you vote ukip. Clearly, not clearly, but we dont think the people of stoke on Trent Central have done that tonight. Ifjohn curtice is right and of Coursejohn Curtice is a lwa ys right and of Coursejohn Curtice is always right, caveats not really necessary , always right, caveats not really necessary, but if hes right that actually for ukip there are not that many labour leave votes up for grabs, that there are fewer than you think, and he was saying there may be more rich pickings in the conservatives, but i would suggest to you that most conservative leave voters are to you that most conservative leave voters a re pretty to you that most conservative leave voters are pretty happy with what mrs may is doing at the moment on the brexit front. They trust her. Dont think shes going to try and wheedle out of it. So if they are happy and there are not that many Labour Leavers around, where do you go . In the constituency like this you would hope people will see this asa you would hope people will see this as a two horse race and you would hope people who do want someone who genuinely wants to leave would vote for ukip, because the conservatives are not in this particular race in stoke. And thats true, but even thenit stoke. And thats true, but even then it doesnt look like youve done it. Weve got to see what happens. Yes, but you know the way, weve done a lot of these things. You can make mistakes you can get things horrendously wrong, but i think in copeland i wouldnt stick my neck out at all, but i do think we can say the way this is going in stoke. If you cannot get disillusioned tories to come and join you, if you cant get a combination of leave Labour Voters who maybe dont like mr corbyn dont really believe labour when it says its going to go for leave, now and disillusioned tories, or tories to vote tactically to beat labour, in stoke, then i dont know where you go. This isjust one byelection, so well have to see what happens in the future. There might be, there will be a by election in min lee perhaps coming up after the manchester Mayoral Election so well see what happens there. Well see what happens going into the future. You cant keep losing by elections, can you . Insurgent parties, of which you are one and the lib dems, we know this too, you kind of needs the oxygen know this too, you kind of needs the oxyg e n of know this too, you kind of needs the oxygen of by election victories to get the publicity, to rally the troops, to put a spring in your step. You cant keep on being knocked back and hope ever to make progress. Youve got one mp and hes semidetached. This has been a very positive campaign. Its been very good for the party. Theres been so many people have gone to support paul nuttall here in stoke homicides been a fantastic atmosphere could fantastic campaign for ukip, and i think we will keep that going forward. You are putting the best gloss on it. We will look to the future, continued to fight and do the best for our country. There was a time when the tories were worried about ukip. Thats one of the reasons i think mr cameron gave as a referendum. In fact, reasons i think mr cameron gave as a referendum. Infact, it reasons i think mr cameron gave as a referendum. In fact, it was the reason he gave a referendum. And there was a worry there would be appealing off of tory vote in key constituencies towards ukip. Am i right in thinking now that you are not really worried about ukip anymore . Obviously we want to get votes from wherever, but i think the truth is that the delivering on the referendum result is something that the tory party is incredibly united around. Whether people voted. Largely. Not entirely. Whether people voted remain but believe in democracy, i voted for the referendum in parliament, i voted remain, but now i am steadfast behind making sure that we leave because i believe in democracy and then of course tory supporters, tory voters, who voted to leave in the referendum obviously are pleased we are leaving and delighted that the Prime Minister is delivering on that result. So i think that has brought the tory Party Together over europe, in the way that we werent before. And that helps the tories in a way, doesnt it, because we know what happens to parties when rival parties come and take their vote away, the social democrats did so with labour, the tories are always worried that ukip could do that as well. It means the tories havent got so much fear now of a major party taking a chunk of their votes what happened is the conservatives have moved towards the far right, which is represented by ukip, so what weve got. The far right. If they are the far right. The far, far right. Wake we havent moved to the right at all. Thats caused upset, hasnt it . We are right in the middle. We have three brexit parties, struggling for the votes of the 52 . We are just watching pictures that stoke, just to let our viewers know. Theres a lot of milling going around, as there usually is. The labour candidacy is there. Again, we are getting to the result. I interrupted you, please carry on, as we watch these pictures. There are three brexit parties now, who are struggling for the votes of those who voted to leave, and liberal democrats are saying, actually, weve always been pro european ring, always been international. Im going to interrupt you again, im so rude, we are seeing pictures of the Labour Candidate but if that wasnt the picture of winning im not quite sure, sorry, he, i beg your pardon full stop here we go. Lets go straight to stoke on trent. Full stop here we go. Lets go straight to stokeontrent. Is as follows. Mohammad akram, independent, 56 votes. Zulfikar ali, liberal democrats, 2083 votes. Jack brereton, the conservative party candidate, 5154 votes. Adam colclough, the green party, 294 votes. Godfrey davies, christian peoples alliance, 109 votes. Nicholas ellsworth, official monster raving loony party, 127 votes. Barbara fielding, independent, 137 votes. David furness, British National party, local people first, 124. Paul nuttall, uk independence party, 5233 votes. Gareth snell, labour party, 7800, ill repeat that, 7853 votes. The number of Ballot Papers rejected was as follows. Want of unofficial mark, zero, voting for more candidates than the voter was entitled to, ten, writing or mark by which voter could buy identified, 18, being unmarked or wholly void from certainty, sorry, being marked or wholly void from certainty, 18, rejected in part, zero, total, 30. The electorate was 55,572. The Ballot Papers issued were 21,000 200. The turnout was 38. 16 . I do hereby declare that the said gareth snell has been duly elected. Applause well, theres a lot of user, thats interesting. Id like to start by saying thank you to the returning officer and their staff for all the work in making a selection run smoothly. I also must thank my wife, sophia, and our beautiful daughter, hannah. Both are a constant source of strength, of love and of inspiration to me, and without their support this campaign simply would not have been possible. Applause you can all clap my wife, thats fine. Cani you can all clap my wife, thats fine. Can i also thank the police for all they have done today and throughout the campaign. For democracy to work, it needs to support of dedicated Public Servants and here in stoke on trent we can be proud to have some of the most dedicated in the country. Id also like to thank my agent, george sinnott, wherever he may be, and the Incredible Team of labour Party Workers and volunteers who have sustained this campaign will stop not least jack drove me for sustained this campaign will stop not leastjack drove me for running my campaign and ruth smeeth for being my aid. To see the energy and commitment that all have shown in these last few weeks is a reminder of the incredible strength and passion of our labour movement. I feel profoundly humbled to have been elected as the member of parliament. Conference central. My wife sophia andi conference central. My wife sophia and i chose to make our home here and i chose to make our home here and it was the best decision we ever made. Im proud to call the potteries my home and im prouder still to be have been elected as its next member of parliament. In recent weeks stoke on trent has found itself in the national spotlight. 0ur city has been the focus of our media which all too often prepares to dwell on our problems instead of highlighting our achievements. But over the last few weeks, a city dubbed by some as the capital of brexit has once again proven to the world that we are so much more than that. We are city of innovators and educators. Artists and entrepreneurs. We pioneered the First Industrial revolution and i believe we have the potential to lead the next one. This city will not allow ourselves to be defined by last yea rs not allow ourselves to be defined by last years referendum. And we will not our lascelles to be divided by the result. We will not allow ourselves. Nor will we be divided by race, faith or creed. We will move Forward Together to tackle the problem is that we face and secure a brighter, more prosperous future for everyone. So to those of you who came to stoke on trent to sow hatred and division and Shelagh Turner is away from our friends and neighbours, i have one very simple message. You have failed. Cheering tonight, the people of stoke on trent have chosen the politics of hope over the politics of fear. We have said with one voice that hatred and bigotry are not welcome here and this is a proud city and we will stand together. This election is a victory for British Values of tolerance and respect. But it is also a victory for the proud labour values that are the hallmark of our city and its people. It is a message that the people. It is a message that the people of stoke on trent wontjust sit back whilst the tory government cuts our National Health service to the bone and whats the future of our Public Services at risk. Is a warning that we will not stand idly by while politicians in westminster, who are pour ever more money into london and the south east, while the rest of the country is simply left to fend for itself, and its a demand that the contribution our people have made to the country is respected and rewarded with the support and investment we deserve. Politics can be passionate and there have been moments in this campaign that has polarised people. But my job, and it is thejob of all that has polarised people. But my job, and it is the job of all others here, will be to put this campaign us here, will be to put this campaign us and work together. For those who voted for me in the election in this election i say thank you very much, but for those who did not come all those who did not vote at all, i wa nt all those who did not vote at all, i want you to know that i will be your representative as well. I will work every day to repay the trust that has been shown to me by the people of stoke on trent. I will be a strong local voice that our city needs and i will always put the people of stoke on trent first. I have a plan for the potteries and that plan begins today. Thank you very much. So, there we have it, gareth snell, the Labour Candidate in stoke on Trent Central, is the new mpfor stoke on Trent Central, is the new mp for the constituency. You won with a majority of 2620, lower than the majority labour had in the general election, but of course the label was the turnout was low. Paul nuttall, who we hope to hear from any few minutes, he was next. So he was pretty far behind. The conservatives were not far behind ukip, a repeat of the general election, where they were pretty nip and tuck, with ukipjust a little ahead. A comfortable victory in the context of what was going on, although of course it is a seat in normal times youd expect labour to hold without difficulty. They held it with a reduced share of the vote, getting 39. 3 of the vote in the general election. In the by election, that came down a bit, not hugely. The tory share of the vote was up about 2 , as was the ukip share of the vote. The lib dems got a decent share of the vote. Their share went up, but from a very low base. There was really only one way to go, id suggest. But he did go up. So labour, down two, ukip and the conservatives both up. So the majority is halved and i think thats the best share of the vote for the conservatives since 1992, so this is bad news for labour. Well, they won. Even in mid term, their majority and their share is falling. Its true that their share has fallen, which is the key indicator, but their overall giorgi has fallen because the vote turnout was so low. My reaction is to congratulate gareth and also jack dromey and roofs need ruth and her mum, who did a lot in the constituency. Five or six weeks ago, when it was announced that Tristram Hunt was standing down, the pundits said, especially when paul nuttall came into the race, that this was a seat that labour was going to lose, that ukip were going to win. I am delighted that obviously we have ke pt delighted that obviously we have kept the seat. Did the pundits say that . I just remember them kept the seat. Did the pundits say that . Ijust remember them saying it could be a race and ukip would be in with a chance. I cant remember anybody saying that ukip would definitely win. My sense of things is simply this. We have won the seat. I am is simply this. We have won the seat. Lam pleased is simply this. We have won the seat. I am pleased we have won it. But our share has gone down 2 . I am not happy about that. If you look at it in the context of where the labour party is in the polls, which is very low, we can say that the people of stoke central and given a clear victory to the labour party. I am delighted about that but we have lots of work to do. We have been watching pictures of paul nuttall leaving in a bit of a rugby scrum, leaving in a bit of a rugby scrum, leaving the count, the sports centre. I will try and get confirmation, but paul nuttall didnt speak in the end . He didnt say anything . Has hejust left didnt speak in the end . He didnt say anything . Has he just left a hole . He didnt do a speech. He just left the hall. In a sense, labour winning is the story from stoke, but the story up there with it will be mr nuttall himself, and that will carry on. Lets go to the victor of stoke on Trent Central, gareth snell. Hejoins victor of stoke on Trent Central, gareth snell. He joins us from the count. You won, but on a reduced majority and a lower share of the vote. Why do you think that was . The issueis vote. Why do you think that was . The issue is that we won the election. We had a hard Fought Campaign that focused on the nhs the issues that affected local people and in the end they elected a labour member of parliament, and im glad about that. Ina parliament, and im glad about that. In a constituency like stoke, which has been labour for as in a constituency like stoke, which has been labourfor as long in a constituency like stoke, which has been labour for as long as anybody can remember, in a by election in the middle of a conservative government, would you not have expected increase your majority and share of the vote . not have expected increase your majority and share of the vote . I am very happy that the people of stoke on Trent Central, provided with a range of candidates, opted to elect a Labour Candidate of their member of parliament. This campaign has been about many issues and, while there may have been a slight decrease in our share of the vote, the turnout was much further down than last general election and i am happy. You had a fight on your hands, though, a fight which you won, and you probably won it a bit better than some may have thought, but it was a fight nonetheless and there were concerns in the labour party. Do you accept that what might be regarded as more normal times for the labour party that your victory would not have been in doubt . Every by election has to be taken seriously. We have fought this election on the issues that matter to local people. We have listened to them and we have a plan to help them. Ultimately, people came out and voted for the labour party. By elections are never going to be straightforward. We fight for every vote. But you have continued a trend, which is well established in stoke since 1997, of a continuously declining labour share of the vote. Ina labour declining labour share of the vote. In a labour heartland constituency, which you now represent, why is your share of the vote in consistent decline . I cant give an immediate answer, but i want to see as many people voting as possible, so between now and the next general election i will be on the streets, talking to people who didnt use their vote, trying to find the reasons why and giving them a positive reason to vote labour at the next election that is how we will turn wrote the decline across the country. How big asset in your victory was mr corbyn . Jeremy campaignfor me victory was mr corbyn . Jeremy campaign for me three times. Whenever we knocked on the door and he spoke to somebody, they were happy to see him. He fired up the members at a number of rallies. So he contributed to your victory, you think . I didnt quite catch that. He contributed to your victory. This was a victory for the whole labour party and labour movement. Jeremy came to stoke on trent three times and the victory will be shared by everybody. Where would you position yourself in the party . I am a labour of the labour party. That is what i concentrate on. In the spectrum of the party, where would you position yourself . spectrum of the party, where would you position yourself . I am not going to get into that. This is a bout a labour party that, when we are united in the determined united and determined, can win in the toughest circumstances. united and determined, can win in the toughest circumstances. I would suggest you are not a corbynista, right . The Leadership Election has been and gone. The purpose of the labour party now is to unite and ta ke labour party now is to unite and take the fight to the tories, and thatis take the fight to the tories, and that is what i will be doing from parliament as the mp for stoke on Trent Central. Parliament as the mp for stokeonTrent Central. Are you going to continue tweeting . stokeonTrent Central. Are you going to continue tweeting . I shall be taking some guidance on the matter, but i think social media is a very good way of engaging with the public. Very well, we look forward to the outcome of that because it has given us plenty to talk about in the past. We will let you go. Its been a Long Campaign for you. Thank you forjoining us straight after your victory speech. The new labour mpfor your victory speech. The new labour mp for stoke on Trent Central. Lets go straight to join john mp for stoke on Trent Central. Lets go straight to joinjohn curtice who, while i was talking to the victor, was crunching the numbers. Tell us what to think. We have to acknowledge that the pundits and many commentators read this by election incorrectly. We were told perpetually that this was a two horse race between labour and ukip and, in the end, it wasnt. The conservative vote didnt fall away and, infact, conservative vote didnt fall away and, in fact, it increased by a couple of points, and this is only the sixth by election held in england since 1970 in which the vote for a Government Party has actually increased in a by election. I would suggest to you that the failure of ukip pars campaign rests quite heavily on its failure to squeeze the labour vote. Earlier on, heavily on its failure to squeeze the labourvote. Earlier on, Barry Gardiner was complaining that the tories hadnt campaigned strongly enoughin tories hadnt campaigned strongly enough in the constituency and they we re enough in the constituency and they were trying to give ukip a free ride. If thats what they were trying to do, they failed spectacularly. Here is an indication, if ukip are serious about winning labour held seats in the north and midlands, that objective is not going to be achieved simply by attacking the labour vote and presenting ukip as an alternative Working Class party. Its also going to be dependent on winning over those many conservative voters who voted for leave, and it looks very likely to me that in the end is to not alls attempt to attack labour meant that he missed above all what he should have focused on, which was squeezing the conservative voters. I would suggest that not only did he fail to squeeze it, but the conservative share of the vote actually went up. In terms of share, there were no defections from the tories to ukip. All the media is saying, ukip is the chance to win, but tory voters didnt go to ukip to defeat labour. Guests. This is only the sixth by election since 1970 in which the share of the vote of the Government Party has increased in a by election in england. That is how remarkable it is that the conservatives held onto their vote, and the fact that they did so in a constituency where you think they would be subject to a squeeze is remarkable. Whatever the eventual outcome proved to be, we have been spending most of the evening wondering whether the conservatives might win copeland because, if they have performed there, but also increasing their vote share, they may well be in with a chance. The liberal democrats managed to increase their share of the vote. Every by election that has taken place since the Eu Referendum is seen some increase in the liberal democrat vote, but that said the pa rtys share of democrat vote, but that said the partys share of the vote is still below what it was in this constituency in 2010, but confirmation of some modest revival in liberal democrats fortunes is now evident in parliamentary by elections, even without the circumstances of richmond, where there was a constituency with a large remain vote. Another indication to labour that you shouldnt just be indication to labour that you shouldntjust be worrying about ukip but, in other circumstances, losing votes to the liberal democrats but also cost you dearly. Thank you. We are going to go back to stoke in a second. You seemed to fail on two fans. You failed to attract Labour Voters, who we re failed to attract Labour Voters, who were perhaps suspicious of labours commitment to brexit and in particular the candidates commitment, and you failed to attract tactical conservative voters that could have moved from the tories to ukip, because it was thought you had the best chance of being beating labour. A failure on both fronts. To look on the bright side, we increased our share of the vote by 2 . What your a nalysts of the vote by 2 . What your analysts said there, john curtice, it was a very interesting and good analysis. Which you have failed on both fronts. In the end it turned out to be a three horse race in the result and we need to attract voters from the conservatives and labour party. Is it not the case that mr not all, the kind of controversy that dogged him through this campaign, the kind of campaign he ran, in some cases becoming almost a figure of fun in the media, not necessarily that part of the media thatis necessarily that part of the media that is naturally hostile, i would suggest thats probably one of the reasons why conservative voters did not switch to ukip. Theyjust didnt think mr nuttall was the kind of candidate they wanted to give their vote too. I think we run a positive campaign witha vote too. I think we run a positive campaign with a positive message that brexit will be good for the country and also very positive about the nhs, that it will remain free at the nhs, that it will remain free at the point of delivery with ukip and we are going to look after the nhs. And yet it failed on the two grounds ive given, so theres no point going over all that. Youve lost another by election opportunity to establish yourself. In parliamentary terms, your party is going nowhere. Well, look, we did increase our share of the vote by 2 . We needed to increase it a bit more to have won this seat. Well have to look at what we need to do in the future to increase it even more but its a positive step. We have increased our share of the vote of a very safe labour seat. Its been a labour seat since the 19305. Labour seat. Its been a labour seat since the 1930s. Nigel farage said, you had to win this seat. It was fundamental that you won this seat. It certainly would have been a very good win for us at this particular time. 0bviously good win for us at this particular time. Obviously it didnt happen, but. Winning stoke was fundamental, quote from nigel farage. Now that you didnt, i would suggest knowing the history of ukip, theres a pretty good chance youre about to enter yet another leadership crisis. Absolutely not. Paul is our leader. We are all going to stand behind paul and with paul and we will live to fight another day. As i said before, there will be another by election very probably coming up injune orjuly. Another by election very probably coming up in june orjuly. If you cant stoke, your unlikely to win leigh. We need to learn the lessons from this, we increased our vote share, we need to learn what to do to increase it even more so when other opportunities, we are better prepared and more likely to win. So isaid prepared and more likely to win. So i said that paul nuttall had gone from the count without doing the traditional part of the speeches the candidates make. Thats true. But he did speak to the press on the way out and thats in that sort of rugby scrum we caught the tail end of. Chris mason is in stoke. Lets see if chris managed to catch what he was saying. What happened with mr nuttall, chris . There was a rugby scrum. I was right in the thick of it. Its a kind of british parliamentary by election tradition, isnt it, that the press will follow the principle losing candidate all the principle losing candidate all the way out of a sports hall, all the way out of a sports hall, all the way out of a sports hall, all the way down the steps, through the dark, into the car park and all the way to theircar dark, into the car park and all the way to their car lobbing questions in their direction. To be fed paul nuttall he did stop and take quite a lot of questions in a big puddle just over there by the desks for a couple of minutes, before we got into the rolling maul situation of following him all the way out of the car park. We didnt have a vast amount to say. He took half a dozen or so amount to say. He took half a dozen or so questions. Lots of questions about hillsborough, about the stuff on his cv, about the sense from some that he was seen as something of a figure of fun because of the cumulative effect of the various calamities that he faced in questions he faced during the campaign. He said he would come back and fight again. He re emphasised this point that you could have been making all night, that this was number70 21ukips making all night, that this was number 70 21 ukips target list back in 2015, he tried to brush off the idea they had to win a seat like this to pick up the line of questioning you were pursuing their in terms of what nigel farage had said in the past. The pitch of his argument was he reckons there would be seats in the future more conducive to a ukip victory than this one. We expected that paul nuttall would do a bunk from this count and try and give is all the slip and scarper. As i said, to his credit, he didnt do that. Whilst it did take quite a lot of questions, we didnt get many answers. Desire i hear you say that he is saying hes going to fight stoke again . Did i hear you say . No, not necessarily stoke, but that he would run to be as an mp somewhere else. stoke, but that he would run to be as an mp somewhere else. I think he has done it four or five times. Indeed. Is it worth checking the classifieds of the local newspaper tomorrow to see if theres a house up tomorrow to see if theres a house upfor tomorrow to see if theres a house up for rent in a name of mr nuttall, orfor sale . I up for rent in a name of mr nuttall, or for sale . I think up for rent in a name of mr nuttall, orfor sale . I think he meant it rather than buying it. That could well happen. You could maybe rent that and it could a nice bolthole for you. Theres beginnings of a property empire for him to build up here, hes got a parliamentary career at westminster. Interestingly, those right at the heart alongside me in that scrum, in fa ct heart alongside me in that scrum, in fact you might be able to see them over my shoulder, was Michael Crick of channel 4 news, the original chaser of paul nuttall on all things his accommodation requirements here stroke. The house he was living in at the beginning of the contest, even though it was on his nomination papers, because he said he hadnt yet moved in and by the end of the contest he wasnt living in either because he said the address had been plastered all over the place and various people in stoke were not too keen on him, had boasted stuff other than letters to his letterbox. Well leave it there, we will get pictures of your rugby scrum and mr nuttall as he left as soon as we can get them. Just look at the full quote from nigel farage, he was speaking to the ukip spring conference on the 17th Of February of this year. 0nly a few days ago. He said, all of that, im not sure what he was talking about, he said, all of that comes to a head next thursday in stoke and i dont think anybody for one moment could underplayjust how important can just how fundamental that by election is, for the futures of both the labour party and indeed of both the labour party and indeed of ukip. It matters and it matters hugely. Thats the significance. And you lost. Well, it did matter and it would have been a fantastic feat for us would have been a fantastic feat for us to win. I was there when nigel gave a speech at the spring conference. Hes a fantastic speaker and a fantastic motivator and i think everyone was moved by his speech and a lot of people went to stoke to campaign and we wanted to win. Asi stoke to campaign and we wanted to win. As i said, we increased our share of the vote but not enough to win. So thats the reality that we face now. We will live to fight on another day and we will have other opportunities in the future to win by elections and to get more people into parliament. Let mejust by elections and to get more people into parliament. Let me just show you the pictures here of paul nuttall as he was leaving the count. The interesting thing is the media is almost as interested in mr nuttall, more interested in mr nuttall, more interested in mr nuttall, than they were on the labour victor. Lets here and have a look at what he was saying. Hes listening to the result, i think on at the moment. He has a big smile on his face for a man who has just lost, but i guess he knows the cameras are on him there. Thats Michael Crick, from another channel, trying to get a word in. We havent got any sound there, but i would suggest you david kurten of ukip, that people will regard you as among the walking wounded and that the publicity, negative publicity he gains, over the house that kind of novel was, the hillsborough. Gains, over the house that kind of novel was, the hillsborough. Lets just here with the sound. We have the sound. Im only 12 weeks in, come on, give me a break. Sorry . Well, the Labour Candidate got more votes than me. Do you know. But weve cut their majority in half and weve cut their majority in half and weve unify the Party Like Never before and well go forward now and well look, ukips time will come. This will happen. It didnt. Hang on, this seat was what, number 72 on our hit list. Theres a lot more that will happen, a lot more to come from us. Were not going anywhere. Im not going anywhere, so therefore we move on and our time will come. This is the brexit capital of britain. Yes, but theres other issues beyond brexit and in terms of where we are as a party on the ground and whatnot, we estimated that, we put this at number 72, look, theres going to be a lot more seats which are going to be more favourable to was in the near future and we will go on and we will have success in the future. So look, come on, its not a problem. Is what happened on your website and hillsborough and your cv, do you recognise that was a big factor in your loss . Well, actually, do you know, the hillsborough issue wasnt an issue on the doorsteps in stoke on trent. Obviously the labour party has a machine. They got their machine out on the day. We did our best. We fell short this time but in the future it will happen for ukip. Ukips time will come. Inaudible im a memberof inaudible im a member of the European Parliament, i im a member of the European Parliament, lam im a member of the European Parliament, i am elected. Im a member of the European Parliament, lam elected. If im a member of the European Parliament, i am elected. If one comes up parliament, i am elected. If one comes up in the future, well consider, 0k . There will be other seats, there will be better chances. And as i say, this was only number 72 on our hit list. Well, look, ill probably stand in the general election of 2020. 0k, guys . All right. Paul nuttall putting a brave face on it there with lots of smiles for a defeated candidate, a candidate who was dogged by controversy throughout the campaign in stoke. A range of issues, from hillsborough, to his accommodation, to claims on his website about ph. D. I to claims on his website about ph. D. , his ph. D. , or lack of ph. D. , and so on, and in a sense mr natoga came theissue, so on, and in a sense mr natoga came the issue, rather than the issues that ukip has meant to stand for mr nuttall. It seems that has a negative impact and it also seems, as we watch him being get through the media scrum there, that isjohn curtice was saying, what was regarded by the media and indeed by the parties as a two horse race, actually, because the tories did not defect to mr nuttall and youd kip, in the end was a three horse race with the tories only a few scores of votes behind ukip in that. Increasing their share of the vote, which governments dont normally do in by elections. There he goes. Not sure where he is staying tonight. But probably not the house that became quite famous during the campaign. There another result we are still waiting on. Its in copeland will stop it the result we think, as we were getting under way tonight, it did look as if labour had held on to stoke, whereas in copeland weve been unable to give you any steer what that result might be, so close is it. Lets go back to tom bateman at the count in the sports hall in whitehaven. To see where we are. Give us an update. Yes, weve just had an announcement from the stage that the declaration is going to be made in five minutes, so we are nearly there. Let me tell you how tricky its been to get those sort of normal sources of intelligence that might tell you which way a vote is going to go, because even the here where the votes are normally in, stacking up and you can watch how many votes each candidate is getting, theyve all been kept empty here tonight and theyre all going to be putting in one go, so they are going to resist giving us any clue whatsoever as to who has won this. In terms of the conservatives and labour camps here tonight, we are still keeping their cards close to their chests. Kat smith, labourmp cards close to their chests. Kat smith, labour mp seemed pretty happy a few moments ago, but that may be more to do with the result in stoke is the news filtered through that. Tom, this is interesting, because normally when we do these programmes and we go to the actual result, before the figures are announced we have a pretty good idea he was probably won, as we did with stoke there, pretty clear, we didnt know by how much but it was pretty clear labour had held onto it by the time it came. You are telling me that as we go to this announcement, only five minutes we still dont really have a steer as to who has won . think its going to be pretty close andi think its going to be pretty close and i think thats the reason why. As you say, normally when you show up as you say, normally when you show up at these by election counts you get a pretty clear sense quite quickly really from the rather from the counts how things are adding up. But its been too hard for them to tell. I think the sense here is they didnt want to get it wrong and put out a message potentially that might make them look a bit silly afterwards. And as i say, we cant even see how the Ballot Papers have stacked up so far in those trays. Its been a bit tricky. All of that tells is it will be pretty close. If its not, well, we have to find out why. Is looking like it will be. It makes it worthwhile to stay up, what is the time now . This is what we live for here. Its 2 45pm, youll love it, its 2 45am. Weve been saying all along its very close but not so close in the end that any part of labour or conservative demanded a recount. Thats right. Certainly we are getting this declaration that looks a bit earlier than people had thought. We were being told as late as 4am, but that clearly is not the case. We saw a short time ago the person who is going to read the declaration, the high sheriff of cumbria, the Reverend Richard lee, pacing around, getting his words ready, so we await that. The sense we get from both the parties here is what they close Fought Campaign its been. Labour a few minutes ago talking to a colleague about the way in which they felt some of the campaigning here has been pretty unfair. It was a ben eccles bite from the outset, because labour were clear that that majority felt it was crumbling. A bare knuckle fight. They have been fighting hard. We can see the people gathering behind you, so it looks like we are not far away, but in my experience it always ends up being more than a couple of minutes. There is a wide angle shot of that, as people gather. We will bring you the result as soon as we get it. Mr corbyn has already had good news tonight, holding on to stoke. You can have all kinds of caveats but, in the end, if you win, you win. If he was to hold onto copeland tonight, even with a result that again, whenjohn curtice does the arithmetic, would suggest they held on but not such a great result, to hold onto both these by elections would be a very satisfying result, whatever the caveats, forJeremy Corbyn. But, if labour has lost copeland, that will probably, almost certainly overshadow labours victory in stoke, because for a sitting government, a conservative government to win a seat off the opposition in a by election happens very rarely in british politics. Indeed, you have to go back way back to 1960 to find a clear change, in which labour lost a seatjust to 1960 to find a clear change, in which labour lost a seat just after Harold Macmillans landslide in 59. The Labour Majority then was only 47. This is a more substantial majority. If labour was to lose, this would be a major upset in the history of british by elections and, when we get it, john curtice will put all in context. Barry gardiner, its a thrilling end. A White Knuckle ride before we know the result, and as you say its unusual that we dont at this stage, i would simply say that in Gillian Troughton we had an excellent candidate, and if she has managed to win, a great deal of the credit goes to her. She made the nhs a big issue, both generally and of a particular local issue, the Maternity Hospital. I think she had been a doctor. And an ambulance driver. Currently a blue light ambulance volunteer, so she knows the distance between west cumbria and ca rlisle. Knows the distance between west cumbria and carlisle. We are very close now, because the candidates are on the stage with their campaign rosettes on. That means we are now getting very close to it. There they are, being choreographed into the correct order, but im not quite sure what that is. Someone has an idea of what the correct order should be. You can see the lib dems there, just on the outside left, the com plete there, just on the outside left, the complete outside left. Oh, im being told one of the great secrets of british politics that its alphabetical order. How original that at least makes it fair. So there they are in alphabetical order. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven candidates, not a huge numberfor a six, seven candidates, not a huge number for a by election, which usually attracts lots of candidates, particularly from the minor parties. Copeland, as i was saying earlier, it is labours biggest held seat geographically, a constituency that is well spread out, stretching from the coast into the lake district, no huge town centres. Whitehaven, where the count is taking place, is the biggest. We can now hear the result. I. Biggest. We can now hear the result. I, richard lee, being the returning officer at the election of a member officer at the election of a member of parliament for the copeland constituency on thursday the 23rd of february 2017, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate had said election is as follows. Guest, Michael Patrick anthony, independent, 811. Hanson, rebecca charlotte, liberal democrats, 2252. Cheering harrison, trudy lynn, the conservative party candidate, 13700 and 48. Cheering ivinson, roy alan, independent, 116. Lenox, jack frederick, green party, 515. Mills, fiona rachel, uk independence party, 2025. Gillian roos, labour party, 11,000 601. Gillian troughton. A number of Ballot Papers rejected was as follows, want of an official mark, zero. Voting for more than one candidate, 15. Writing or mark by which the voter could be identified, 2. Being unmarked or wholly void for uncertainty, 23. The total being 40. The electorate, 60,602, Ballot Papers issued, 31,108, ten out, 51. 33 . Papers issued, 31,108, ten out, 51. 3396. This is a papers issued, 31,108, ten out, 51. 33 . This is a remarkable result which has just come in. 51. 33 . This is a remarkable result which hasjust come in. The conservatives have taken the constituency of copeland from labour, a constituency it has held since time immemorial. Theyve not just taken it up by a Pretty Healthy majority of 2147. Indeed, the tory majority of 2147. Indeed, the tory majority on a much lower turnout is not that much smaller than labours majority was in the general election of 2564. This is historically a major event in by election history in britain, and we are going to tell you more in a minute, but lets hear from the weather. She is addressing the counting. Gearfrom the window. Lets hear from the counting. Gearfrom the window. Lets hearfrom Trudy Harrison, the new mp for copeland. The efficient way in which they have policed the event. What has happened here tonight is a truly historic event. Youd have to go back more than a century to find an example of a Governing Party taking a seat from the Opposition Party in an election like this. We have had labour here for more than 80 years. But its been very clear, talking to people throughout this campaign, that Jeremy Corbyn doesnt represent them. They want a party which is on them. They want a party which is on the side of ordinary working people, which will respect the way we voted in the referendum, and which will build a country that represents everyone. Thats why they voted for me tonight. I want to thank everyone who has backed me to be their next representative in parliament. People in communities right across this constituency have put their faith in me, a special sort of responsibility. I know that many of them might never have voted conservative before, but whichever way you voted, i will work hard to bea way you voted, i will work hard to be a strong voice for you and to stand up for this very special part of the world. I care deeply about this community. Its the area ive lived all my life. Its where my family live and work. And its where my husband and i are bringing up my four beautiful daughters. I want the best for my community, and i know that we deserve more, to be able to realise our full potential. Local people have backed me to deliver my 6 point plan, for copeland, and to support the Prime Ministers plan to make a success of brexit, and i will not let them down. Whether its on local services, the nuclear industry, or getting morejobs locally, our area need someone who can make our voice heard and work with the government to get things done. My promise tonight to you is to be that person. Finally, i wanted to be that person. Finally, i wanted to thank my husband, my girls and my pa rents for to thank my husband, my girls and my parents for all their help and support during this campaign, and to all the volunteers from across the country who have come to help us make history here tonight. It is an enormous honour to be elected here as the representative for the area, but i live in and call home. Thank you very much. Applause Trudy Harrison, the new Conservative Mpfor Trudy Harrison, the new Conservative Mp for copeland. That in itself is a historic phrase. Nobody has been able to say Conservative Mp for copeland in living memory. She won with a conservative vote of over 44 of the vote, a rise of 8. 5 on the general election, and labours share of the vote down 5 . There are the figures of the votes. A comfortable majority of 2247. That was over Gillian Troughton, the Labour Candidate. We said all night it was close, but actually thats not all that close, given the turnout of 51 . In the end, the conservatives have won this seat reasonably co mforta bly. Have won this seat reasonably comfortably. I think the people who run the copeland by election did a greatjob in keeping what was going on from everybody else, notjust the media but the candidates and parties, too. Here is the crucial thing, the share of the vote. The conservatives share is up, 8. 5. Labour are down, 5 below. As you can see, this was a two horse race. Everybody else, far behind. The liberal democrats on 7 , up almost 496 liberal democrats on 7 , up almost 4 on the general election. The ukip vote down, collapsing 9 . Although i dont know for sure, it may be that some of that 7 of the vote, there we go, there is the change, some of that could well have gone to the conservatives. Its a 6. 7 swing from labour to conservatives. Im going to say that again, because it is quite a remarkable result in a by election for an Opposition Party to have lost two exiting conservative government to a sitting conservative government. A 6. 7 swing to the conservatives, giving them a historic victory in the copeland by election. I will hear from matthew hancock, representing the victory party. Its a stunning result. It has surpassed all expectations. Obviously, trudy was a great candidate, as we saw, but i think people have sometimes missed the fact that, because we have looked at the details here, but ultimately you only have one party in british politics at the moment which has a strong message on the economy, on safety, on delivering brexit and strong leadership, and that has played out. It is the sort of swing you normally get away from a Governing Party, and weve got it towards a Governing Party, so it is a very strong result for the conservatives, and you can see both ukip and labourgoing conservatives, and you can see both ukip and labour going backwards. Exposed tojohn ukip and labour going backwards. Exposed to john curtice. Ukip and labour going backwards. Exposed tojohn curtice. A historic isa exposed tojohn curtice. A historic is a word thatjournalists like to overuse. I would suggest tonight that it overuse. I would suggest tonight thatitis overuse. I would suggest tonight that it is the right adjective. Absolutely correct. This is the best by election performance by a Government Party in terms of the increase their share of the vote as compared to the last general election since the whole whole north by election of january 1966 election since the whole whole north by election ofjanuary1966 hull north. Lets fill every body else in. It was a by election that was won handsomely by Harold Wilson and on the back of that he decided to go to the country and to hold a general election, because he only had a very small majority and he reckoned he could get a big one. Theresa may tomorrow morning may be regretting having ruled out the prospect of an early election, so i think first one has to say this is a remarkably good result for the conservatives. I think you are quite right to point out one of the foundations is what frankly was a collapse in the ukip vote and here i think is a warning to ukip